[Federal Register Volume 84, Number 116 (Monday, June 17, 2019)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 28132-28170]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2019-12176]



[[Page 28131]]

Vol. 84

Monday,

No. 116

June 17, 2019

Part II





 Environmental Protection Agency





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40 CFR Part 52





 Approval of Air Quality Implementation Plans; California; South Coast 
Air Basin; 1-Hour and 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area Requirements; 
Proposed Rule

  Federal Register / Vol. 84 , No. 116 / Monday, June 17, 2019 / 
Proposed Rules  

[[Page 28132]]


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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

40 CFR Part 52

[EPA-R09-OAR-2019-0051; FRL-9994-76-Region 9]


Approval of Air Quality Implementation Plans; California; South 
Coast Air Basin; 1-Hour and 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area 
Requirements

AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

ACTION: Proposed rule.

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SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing to 
approve, or conditionally approve, all or portions of five state 
implementation plan (SIP) revisions submitted by the State of 
California to meet Clean Air Act (CAA or ``the Act'') requirements for 
the 1979 1-hour, 1997 8-hour, and 2008 8-hour ozone national ambient 
air quality standards (NAAQS or ``standards'') in the Los Angeles--
South Coast Air Basin, California (``South Coast'') ozone nonattainment 
area. The five SIP revisions include the ``Final 2016 Air Quality 
Management Plan,'' the ``Revised Proposed 2016 State Strategy for the 
State Implementation Plan,'' the ``2018 Updates to the California State 
Implementation Plan,'' the ``Updated Federal 1979 1-Hour Ozone Standard 
Attainment Demonstration,'' and a local emission statement rule. In 
today's action, the EPA refers to these submittals collectively as the 
``2016 South Coast Ozone SIP.'' The 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP 
addresses the nonattainment area requirements for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, 
including the requirements for an emissions inventory, attainment 
demonstration, reasonable further progress, reasonably available 
control measures, contingency measures, among others; establishes motor 
vehicle emissions budgets; and updates the previously-approved control 
strategies and attainment demonstrations for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS and 
the 1997 ozone NAAQS. The EPA is proposing to approve the 2016 South 
Coast Ozone Plan as meeting all the applicable ozone nonattainment area 
requirements except for the reasonable further progress contingency 
measure requirement, for which the EPA is proposing conditional 
approval.

DATES: Written comments must arrive on or before July 17, 2019.

ADDRESSES: Submit your comments, identified by Docket ID No. EPA-R09-
OAR-2019-0051 at https://www.regulations.gov. For comments submitted at 
Regulations.gov, follow the online instructions for submitting 
comments. Once submitted, comments cannot be edited or removed from 
Regulations.gov. The EPA may publish any comment received to its public 
docket. Do not submit electronically any information you consider to be 
Confidential Business Information (CBI) or other information whose 
disclosure is restricted by statute. Multimedia submissions (audio, 
video, etc.) must be accompanied by a written comment. The written 
comment is considered the official comment and should include 
discussion of all points you wish to make. The EPA will generally not 
consider comments or comment contents located outside of the primary 
submission (i.e., on the web, cloud, or other file sharing system). For 
additional submission methods, please contact the person identified in 
the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section. For the full EPA public 
comment policy, information about CBI or multimedia submissions, and 
general guidance on making effective comments, please visit https://www.epa.gov/dockets/commenting-epa-dockets.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: John Ungvarsky, Air Planning Office 
(AIR-2), EPA Region IX, 75 Hawthorne Street, San Francisco, CA 94105, 
(415) 972-3963, or by email at ungvarsky.john@epa.gov.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:  Throughout this document, ``we,'' ``us'' 
and ``our'' refer to the EPA.

Table of Contents

I. Regulatory Context
    A. Ozone Standards, Area Designations, and SIPs
    B. The South Coast Ozone Nonattainment Area
    C. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for 2008 Ozone Nonattainment 
Area SIPs
II. Submissions From the State of California To Address 2008 Ozone 
Requirements in the South Coast
    A. Summary of Submissions
    B. Clean Air Act Procedural Requirements for Adoption and 
Submission of SIP Revisions
III. Evaluation of the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP
    A. Emissions Inventories
    B. Emissions Statement
    C. Reasonably Available Control Measures Demonstration and 
Control Strategy
    D. Attainment Demonstration
    E. Rate of Progress Plan and Reasonable Further Progress 
Demonstration
    F. Transportation Control Strategies and Measures To Offset 
Emissions Increases From Vehicle Miles Traveled
    G. Contingency Measures
    H. Clean Fuels or Advanced Control Technology for Boilers
    I. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for Transportation Conformity
    J. General Conformity Budgets
    K. Other Clean Air Act Requirements Applicable to Extreme Ozone 
Nonattainment Areas
IV. Proposed Action
V. Incorporation by Reference
VI. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

I. Regulatory Context

A. Ozone Standards, Area Designations, and SIPs

    Ground-level ozone pollution is formed from the reaction of 
volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen 
(NOX) in the presence of sunlight.\1\ These two pollutants, 
referred to as ozone precursors, are emitted by many types of sources, 
including on-and off-road motor vehicles and engines, power plants and 
industrial facilities, and smaller area sources such as lawn and garden 
equipment and paints.
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    \1\ The State of California refers to reactive organic gases 
(ROG) rather than VOC in some of its ozone-related SIP submissions. 
As a practical matter, ROG and VOC refer to the same set of chemical 
constituents, and for the sake of simplicity, we refer to this set 
of gases as VOC in this proposed rule.
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    Scientific evidence indicates that adverse public health effects 
occur following exposure to ozone, particularly in children and adults 
with lung disease. Breathing air containing ozone can reduce lung 
function and inflame airways, which can increase respiratory symptoms 
and aggravate asthma or other lung diseases.\2\
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    \2\ ``Fact Sheet--2008 Final Revisions to the National Ambient 
Air Quality Standards for Ozone'' dated March 2008.
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    Under section 109 of the CAA, the EPA promulgates NAAQS for 
pervasive air pollutants, such as ozone. The NAAQS are concentration 
levels that, the attainment and maintenance of which, the EPA has 
determined to be requisite to protect public health and welfare. In 
1979, the EPA established the 1-hour ozone NAAQS of 0.12 parts per 
million (ppm) (referred to herein as the ``1-hour ozone NAAQS'').\3\ 
Section 110 of the CAA requires states to develop and submit SIPs to 
implement, maintain, and enforce the NAAQS.
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    \3\ 44 FR 8202 (February 8, 1979).
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    Under the CAA, as amended in 1977, the EPA designated all areas of 
the country as ``nonattainment,'' ``attainment,'' or ``unclassifiable'' 
with respect to each NAAQS, and in so doing, designated the South Coast 
\4\ as a nonattainment area for photochemical oxidant (later ozone).\5\ 
States with nonattainment areas are required to submit revisions to 
their SIPs that

[[Page 28133]]

include a control strategy and technical analysis to demonstrate how 
the area will attain the NAAQS (referred to as an ``attainment 
demonstration''), and the EPA took action on a number of related SIP 
revisions submitted by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) in the 
late 1970s and 1980s for the South Coast 1-hour ozone nonattainment 
area.\6\ By 1990, like many other areas throughout the country, the 
South Coast had not attained the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, and under the CAA 
Amendments of 1990, the South Coast was classified as an ``Extreme'' 
nonattainment area for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS with an attainment 
deadline of November 15, 2010 and was subject to additional SIP 
planning requirements, including a revised attainment demonstration.\7\
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    \4\ The South Coast includes Orange County, the southwestern 
two-thirds of Los Angeles County, southwestern San Bernardino 
County, and western Riverside County (see 40 CFR 81.305).
    \5\ 43 FR 8962 (March 3, 1978).
    \6\ Under California law, CARB is the state agency that is 
responsible for the adoption and submission to the EPA of California 
SIPs and SIP revisions, and it has broad authority to establish 
emissions standards and other requirements for mobile sources. Local 
and regional air pollution control districts in California are 
responsible for the regulation of stationary sources and are 
generally responsible for the development of regional air quality 
plans. In the South Coast, the South Coast Air Quality Management 
District develops and adopts air quality management plans to address 
CAA planning requirements applicable to that region. Such plans are 
then submitted to CARB for adoption and submittal to the EPA as 
revisions to the California SIP.
    \7\ 56 FR 56694 (November 6, 1991).
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    In the wake of the classification of the South Coast nonattainment 
area as Extreme for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, CARB submitted a number of 
SIP revisions for the South Coast that contained attainment 
demonstrations for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS and other SIP elements, and 
that relied on a combination of mobile source control measures adopted 
by CARB and stationary source control measures adopted by the South 
Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD or ``District''). In 
connection with these submittals, the EPA took the following actions:
     1994 South Coast Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) and 
related state strategy--The EPA approved the 15 percent Rate-of-
Progress (ROP) demonstration and the attainment demonstration, among 
other elements, for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS at 62 FR 1150 (January 8, 
1997);
     1997 AQMP, as revised in 1999--The EPA approved the 
revised control strategy and attainment demonstration for the 1-hour 
ozone NAAQS at 65 FR 18903 (April 10, 2000); and
     2003 AQMP and related state strategy--The EPA approved 
certain new commitments for emissions reductions but disapproved the 
revised 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration at 74 FR 10176 (March 10, 
2009).
    Each of these plans builds upon a foundation of regulations adopted 
and implemented by the SCAQMD, CARB, and the EPA for stationary and 
mobile sources, and includes commitments for new or more stringent 
regulations to achieve additional emissions reductions necessary for 
attainment. Each subsequent ozone plan then builds upon the foundation 
of the new or strengthened regulations that were adopted to support the 
previous plan. While the emissions reduction measures implemented under 
these South Coast ozone plans have been successful in reducing ozone 
concentrations in the South Coast, the South Coast failed to attain the 
1-hour ozone NAAQS by the applicable attainment date of November 15, 
2010.\8\
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    \8\ 76 FR 82133 (December 30, 2011).
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    In 1997, the EPA revised the NAAQS for ozone, setting it at 0.08 
ppm averaged over an 8-hour timeframe (referred to herein as the ``1997 
ozone NAAQS'') to replace the existing 1-hour ozone NAAQS of 0.12 
ppm.\9\ In 2004, the EPA designated and classified the South Coast area 
as a ``Severe-17'' nonattainment area for the 1997 ozone NAAQS but 
later granted CARB's request to reclassify the South Coast to Extreme 
nonattainment for the 1997 ozone NAAQS.\10\ The corresponding 
applicable attainment year for the 1997 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast 
is 2023. In response to this designation, CARB submitted the 2007 South 
Coast AQMP and related 2007 State Strategy, as amended in 2009 and 2011 
(collectively, referred to as the ``2007 South Coast Ozone SIP'') and 
the EPA took the following action:
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    \9\ 62 FR 38856 (July 18, 1997).
    \10\ 75 FR 24409 (May 5, 2010).
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     2007 South Coast Ozone SIP--Among other elements, the EPA 
approved the emission inventory, reasonably available control measures 
demonstration, reasonable further progress demonstration, control 
strategy and attainment demonstration for the 1997 ozone NAAQS at 77 FR 
12674 (March 1, 2012), amended at 77 FR 70707 (November 27, 2012).
    The 1997 ozone NAAQS control strategy in the 2007 South Coast Ozone 
SIP builds upon the control strategy established under the previous 1-
hour ozone plans. In connection with our approval of the South Coast 
attainment demonstration for the 1997 ozone NAAQS, the EPA approved a 
number of commitments by CARB and the SCAQMD as part of the California 
SIP. The commitments included bringing certain defined measures before 
their respective boards by certain dates, achieving certain aggregate 
emissions reductions by certain milestone years, and achieving 
emissions reductions from development and implementation of advanced 
control technologies under CAA section 182(e)(5).
    In 2012, the EPA's 2009 final partial approval and partial 
disapproval action on the 2003 AQMP and related state strategy for the 
1-hour ozone NAAQS was successfully challenged in the Ninth Circuit 
Court of Appeals,\11\ and in response, the EPA issued a SIP call under 
CAA section 110(k)(5) to California for a new 1-hour ozone attainment 
demonstration for the South Coast.\12\ CARB and the District, in turn, 
prepared and submitted a new attainment demonstration for the 1-hour 
ozone NAAQS as part of the 2012 AQMP, and the EPA took the following 
action:
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    \11\ Association of Irritated Residents v. EPA, 632 F.3d 584 
(9th Cir. 2011), reprinted as amended on January 27, 2012, 686 F.3d 
668, further amended February 13, 2012.
    \12\ 78 FR 889 (January 7, 2013).
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     2012 AQMP--The EPA approved new control measures and 
commitments for both the 1-hour ozone NAAQS and 1997 ozone NAAQS and 
approved a new attainment demonstration for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS in 
the South Coast that provides for attainment of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS 
by December 31, 2022 at 79 FR 52526 (September 3, 2014).
    The SIP revisions that are the subject of today's proposed action 
update certain commitments made in connection with the 2007 South Coast 
Ozone SIP for the 1997 ozone NAAQS and the 2012 AQMP for both the 1997 
ozone NAAQS and the 1-hour ozone NAAQS. These revised commitments 
reflect updated emissions inventories and new modeling results.
    In 2008, the EPA lowered the 8-hour ozone NAAQS to 0.075 ppm 
(referred to herein as the ``2008 ozone NAAQS'') to replace the 1997 
ozone NAAQS of 0.08 ppm.\13\ In 2012, the EPA designated the South 
Coast as nonattainment for the 2008 ozone NAAQS and classified the area 
as Extreme.\14\ Areas classified as Extreme must attain the NAAQS 
within 20 years of the effective date of the nonattainment 
designation.\15\ The SIP

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revisions that are the subject of today's proposed action address the 
Extreme nonattainment area requirements that apply to the South Coast 
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
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    \13\ 73 FR 16436 (March 27, 2008). The EPA further tightened the 
8-hour ozone NAAQS to 0.070 ppm in 2015, but this proposed action 
relates to the requirements for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, the 1997 
ozone NAAQS and the 2008 ozone NAAQS. Information on the 2015 ozone 
NAAQS is available at 80 FR 65292 (October 26, 2015).
    \14\ 77 FR 30088 (May 21, 2012).
    \15\ CAA section 181(a)(1), 40 CFR 51.1102 and 51.1103(a).
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B. The South Coast Ozone Nonattainment Area

    The South Coast nonattainment area for the 2008 ozone NAAQS 
consists of Orange County, the southwestern two-thirds of Los Angeles 
County, southwestern San Bernardino County, and western Riverside 
County. The South Coast nonattainment area encompasses an area of 
approximately 6,600 square miles and is bounded by the Pacific Ocean to 
the west and the San Gabriel, San Bernardino, and San Jacinto mountains 
to the north and east.\16\ The population of the South Coast 
nonattainment area is over 16 million people, and it is projected to 
increase by 13 percent to over 18 million people in 2031.\17\ The AQMPs 
and state control measures discussed above have produced significant 
emissions reductions over the years and improved air quality in the 
South Coast. For instance, the 8-hour ozone design value for the South 
Coast decreased from 0.166 ppm to 0.102 ppm from 1995 to 2015, despite 
substantial increases in population and business and vehicular 
activity, and the 1-hour ozone design value decreased from 0.250 ppm to 
0.130 ppm over that same period.\18\
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    \16\ For a precise definition of the boundaries of the South 
Coast 2008 ozone nonattainment area, see 40 CFR 81.305.
    \17\ 2016 AQMP, page 1-5.
    \18\ For the 8-hour ozone NAAQS, the design value at any given 
monitoring site is the 3-year average of the annual fourth highest 
daily maximum 8-hour average ambient air quality ozone 
concentration. For the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, the design value at any 
given monitoring site is the fourth highest daily maximum 1-hour 
ozone concentration measured over a three-year period. The maximum 
design value among the various ozone monitoring sites is the design 
value for the area. The ozone data for 1995 through 2015 are from 
appendix II (``Current Air Quality'') of the 2016 AQMP.
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C. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for 2008 Ozone Nonattainment Area 
SIPs

    States must implement the 2008 ozone NAAQS under Title 1, part D of 
the CAA, including sections 171-179B of subpart 1 (``Nonattainment 
Areas in General'') and sections 181-185 of subpart 2 (``Additional 
Provisions for Ozone Nonattainment Areas''). To assist states in 
developing effective plans to address ozone nonattainment problems, in 
2015, the EPA issued a SIP Requirements Rule (SRR) for the 2008 ozone 
NAAQS (``2008 Ozone SRR'') that addressed implementation of the 2008 
standards, including attainment dates, requirements for emissions 
inventories, attainment and reasonable further progress (RFP) 
demonstrations, among other SIP elements, as well as the transition 
from the 1997 ozone NAAQS to the 2008 ozone NAAQS and associated anti-
backsliding requirements.\19\ The 2008 Ozone SRR is codified at 40 CFR 
part 51, subpart AA. We discuss the CAA and regulatory requirements for 
the elements of 2008 ozone plans relevant to this proposal in more 
detail below.
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    \19\ 80 FR 12264 (March 6, 2015).
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    The EPA's 2008 Ozone SRR was challenged, and on February 16, 2018, 
the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit (``D.C. Circuit'') 
published its decision in South Coast Air Quality Management District 
v. EPA \20\ (``South Coast II'') \21\ vacating portions of the 2008 
Ozone SRR. The only aspect of the South Coast II decision that affects 
this proposed action is the vacatur of the alternative baseline year 
for RFP plans. More specifically, the 2008 Ozone SRR required states to 
develop the baseline emissions inventory for RFP plans using the 
emissions for the most recent calendar year for which states submit a 
triennial inventory to the EPA under subpart A (``Air Emissions 
Reporting Requirements'') of 40 CFR part 51, which was 2011. However, 
the 2008 Ozone SRR allowed states to use an alternative year, between 
2008 and 2012, for the baseline emissions inventory provided that the 
state demonstrated why the alternative baseline year was appropriate. 
In the South Coast II decision, the D.C. Circuit vacated the provisions 
of the 2008 Ozone SRR that allowed states to use an alternative 
baseline year for demonstrating RFP.
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    \20\ South Coast Air Quality Management District v. EPA, 882 
F.3d 1138 (D.C. Cir. 2018) (``South Coast II'').
    \21\ The term ``South Coast II'' is used in reference to the 
2018 court decision to distinguish it from a decision published in 
2006 also referred to as ``South Coast.'' The earlier decision 
involved a challenge to the EPA's Phase 1 implementation rule for 
the 1997 ozone NAAQS. South Coast Air Quality Management Dist. v. 
EPA, 472 F.3d 882 (D.C. Cir. 2006).
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II. Submissions From the State of California To Address 2008 Ozone 
Requirements in the South Coast

A. Summary of Submissions

    In this document, we are proposing action on all or portions of 
five SIP revisions, which are described in detail in the following 
paragraphs. Collectively, we refer to the relevant portions of the five 
SIP revisions as the ``2016 South Coast Ozone SIP.''
1. SCAQMD's 2016 Air Quality Management Plan
    On April 27, 2017, CARB submitted the Final 2016 Air Quality 
Management Plan (March 2017) (``2016 AQMP'') to the EPA as a revision 
to the California SIP.\22\ The 2016 AQMP addresses the nonattainment 
area requirements for the South Coast for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, the 
2006 fine particle (PM2.5) NAAQS and the 2012 
PM2.5 NAAQS, and for the Coachella Valley for the 2008 ozone 
NAAQS. It also updates the approved attainment demonstrations for the 
1-hour ozone and 1997 ozone NAAQS for the South Coast and adds new 
measures to reduce the reliance on section 182(e)(5) new technology 
measures to attain those standards. We have already taken action to 
approve the 2016 AQMP with respect to the 2006 PM2.5 NAAQS 
(except for the related contingency measure element).\23\ In this 
document, we are proposing action on the ozone portion of the 2016 AQMP 
for the South Coast. Action on the portions of the 2016 AQMP that 
relate to the 2012 PM2.5 NAAQS in the South Coast and to the 
2008 ozone NAAQS in Coachella Valley will be taken in separate 
rulemakings.
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    \22\ Letter dated April 27, 2017, from Richard Corey, Executive 
Officer, CARB, to Alexis Strauss, Acting Regional Administrator, EPA 
Region IX.
    \23\ 84 FR 3305 (February 12, 2019).
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    The SIP revision for the 2016 AQMP includes the various chapters 
and appendices of the 2016 AQMP, described further below, plus the 
District's resolution of adoption for the plan (District Resolution 17-
2) and CARB's resolution of adoption of the 2016 AQMP as a revision to 
the California SIP (CARB Resolution 17-8) that include commitments on 
which the 2016 AQMP relies.\24\ With respect to ozone, the 2016 AQMP 
addresses the CAA requirements for emissions inventories, air quality 
modeling demonstrating attainment, reasonably available control 
measures (RACM), RFP, advanced technology/clean fuels for boilers, 
transportation control strategies and measures, and contingency 
measures for failure to make RFP, among other requirements.
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    \24\ SCAQMD Board Resolution 17-2, March 3, 2017; CARB Board 
Resolution 17-8, 2016 Air Quality Management Plan for Ozone and 
PM2.5 in the South Coast and the Coachella Valley, March 
23, 2017.
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    The 2016 AQMP is organized into eleven chapters, most of which are 
relevant to the ozone NAAQS in the South Coast.\25\ Chapter 1,

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``Introduction,'' introduces the 2016 AQMP, including its purpose, 
historical air quality progress in the South Coast, and the District's 
approach to air quality planning. Chapter 2, ``Air Quality and Health 
Effects,'' discusses current air quality in comparison with federal 
health-based air pollution standards. Chapter 3, ``Base Year and Future 
Emissions,'' summarizes emissions inventories, estimates current 
emissions by source and pollutant, and projects future emissions with 
and without growth. Chapter 4, ``Control Strategy and Implementation,'' 
presents the control strategy, specific measures, and implementation 
schedules to attain the air quality standards by the specified 
attainment dates. Chapter 5, ``Future Air Quality,'' describes the 
modeling approach used in the 2016 AQMP and summarizes the South 
Coast's future air quality projections with and without the control 
strategy. Chapter 6, ``Federal and State Clean Air Act Requirements,'' 
discusses specific federal and state requirements as they pertain to 
the South Coast, including anti-backsliding requirements for revoked 
standards. Chapter 11, ``Public Process and Participation,'' describes 
the District's public outreach effort associated with the development 
of the 2016 AQMP. A glossary is provided at the end of the document, 
presenting definitions of commonly used terms found in the 2016 AQMP.
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    \25\ The following chapters or portions thereof in the 2016 AQMP 
were submitted for information only and are not subject to review as 
part of the SIP revision: The portion of Chapter 6 that is titled 
``California Clean Air Act Requirements'' and that discusses 
compliance with state law requirements for clean air plans; Chapter 
8, ``Looking Beyond Current Requirements,'' assesses the South 
Coast's status with respect to the 2015 8-hour ozone standard of 
0.070 ppm; Chapter 9, ``Air Toxic Control Strategy,'' examines the 
ongoing efforts to reduce health risk from toxic air contaminants, 
co-benefits from reducing criteria pollutants, and potential future 
actions; and Chapter 10, ``Climate and Energy,'' provides a 
description of current and projected energy demand and supply issues 
in the South Coast, and the relationship between air quality 
improvement and greenhouse gas mitigation goals. As noted 
previously, we are not taking action in this rulemaking on the 
portions of the 2016 AQMP that relate to the 2008 ozone NAAQS in 
Coachella Valley, which includes Chapter 7 (``Current and Future Air 
Quality--Desert Nonattainment Areas SIP'') and the portions that 
relate to the PM2.5 NAAQS in the South Coast.
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    The 2016 AQMP also includes the following technical appendices:
     Appendix I (``Health Effects'') presents a summary of 
scientific findings on the health effects of ambient air pollutants.
     Appendix II (``Current Air Quality'') contains a detailed 
summary of the air quality in 2015, along with prior year trends, in 
both the South Coast and the Coachella Valley.
     Appendix III (``Base and Future Year Emission Inventory'') 
presents the 2012 base year emissions inventory and projected emission 
inventories of air pollutants in future attainment years for both 
annual average and summer planning inventories.
     Appendix IV-A (``SCAQMD's Stationary and Mobile Source 
Control Measures'') describes SCAQMD's proposed stationary and mobile 
source control measures to attain the federal ozone and fine 
particulate matter PM2.5 standards.
     Appendix IV-B (``CARB's Mobile Source Strategy'') 
describes CARB's proposed 2016 strategy to attain health-based federal 
air quality standards.
     Appendix IV-C (``Regional Transportation Strategy and 
Control Measures'') describes the Southern California Association of 
Governments' (SCAG) ``Final 2016-2040 Regional Transportation Plan/
Sustainable Communities Strategy'' and transportation control measures 
included in the 2016 PM2.5 Plan.
     Appendix V (``Modeling and Attainment Demonstrations'') 
provides the details of the regional modeling for the attainment 
demonstration.
     Appendix VI (``Compliance with Other Clean Air Act 
Requirements'') provides the District's demonstration that the 2016 
AQMP complies with specific CAA requirements.
    As discussed in section III.D of this notice, the attainment 
demonstrations for the 1997 and 2008 ozone NAAQS in the 2016 AQMP rely 
on certain commitments made by CARB in the Revised Proposed 2016 State 
Strategy for the State Implementation Plan (March 7, 2017) (``2016 
State Strategy''), which was also submitted on April 27, 2017. Since 
submittal of the 2016 AQMP, the District and CARB have updated and 
supplemented certain other elements of the 2016 AQMP (such as the RFP 
demonstration, contingency measure element, motor vehicle emissions 
budgets, and 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration) through SIP 
revision submittals dated December 5, 2018 and December 20, 2018, also 
discussed in section II.A of this notice.
2. CARB's 2016 State Strategy
    On April 27, 2017, CARB submitted the 2016 State Strategy to the 
EPA as a revision to the California SIP.\26\ The SIP revision for the 
2016 State Strategy includes the main document itself plus CARB's 
resolution of adoption of the 2016 State Strategy (CARB Resolution 17-
7) that includes commitments on which the 2016 State Strategy 
relies.\27\
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    \26\ Letter dated April 27, 2017 from Richard Corey, Executive 
Officer, CARB, to Alexis Strauss, Acting Regional Administrator, EPA 
Region IX.
    \27\ CARB Board Resolution 17-7, 2016 State Strategy for the 
State Implementation Plan, March 23, 2017.
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    CARB worked closely with the District in the development of the 
2016 AQMP and anticipated the need to adopt State commitments to 
achieve aggregate emission reductions in the South Coast. The 
commitment in the 2016 State Strategy includes two components: (1) A 
commitment to bring to the CARB Board for consideration, or to 
otherwise take action on, certain defined new measures (e.g., new 
California low-NOX standards for on-road heavy-duty engines, 
low-emission diesel requirements for off-road equipment, and continued 
development of advanced technologies pursuant to CAA section 
182(e)(5)), and (2) a commitment to achieve aggregate emissions 
reductions by specific dates. In the 2016 State Strategy, CARB made 
separate aggregate emissions reduction commitments for the South Coast 
and San Joaquin Valley.
    On February 12, 2019, we approved CARB's commitment from the 2016 
State Strategy for the 2008 ozone NAAQS attainment plan for the San 
Joaquin Valley.\28\ In today's action, we are proposing approval of 
CARB's commitment from the 2016 State Strategy for the 2016 South Coast 
Ozone SIP. With respect to the South Coast, CARB's aggregate emissions 
reduction commitment amounts to 113 tons per day (tpd) of 
NOX and 50 to 51 tpd of VOCs by 2023 to meet the 1997 ozone 
NAAQS, and 111 tpd of NOX and 59 to 60 tpd of VOCs by 2031 
to meet 2008 ozone NAAQS.\29\
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    \28\ 84 FR 3302 (February 12, 2019).
    \29\ Staff Report, ARB Review of the 2016 Air Quality Management 
Plan for the South Coast Air Basin and Coachella Valley, March 7, 
2017; CARB Board Resolution 17-7, 2016 State Strategy for the State 
Implementation Plan, March 23, 2017.
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3. CARB's 2018 Updates to the California State Implementation Plan
    On December 5, 2018, CARB submitted the 2018 Updates to the 
California State Implementation Plan (``2018 SIP Update'') to the EPA 
as a revision to the California SIP.\30\ CARB adopted the 2018 SIP 
Update on October 25, 2018. CARB developed the 2018 SIP Update in 
response to the court's decision in South Coast II vacating the 2008 
Ozone SRR with respect to the use of an alternate baseline year for 
demonstrating RFP and to address contingency measure requirements in 
the wake of the court decision in Bahr v. EPA.\31\ The 2018 SIP

[[Page 28136]]

Update includes an RFP demonstration using the required 2011 baseline 
year for the South Coast for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. The 2018 SIP Update 
also includes updated motor vehicle emission budgets and information to 
support the contingency measure element.
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    \30\ Letter dated December 5, 2018, from Richard Corey, 
Executive Officer, CARB, to Mike Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA 
Region IX.
    \31\ Bahr v. EPA, 836 F.3d 1218 (9th Cir. 2016) (``Bahr v. 
EPA''). In Bahr v. EPA, the court rejected the EPA's longstanding 
interpretation of CAA section 172(c)(9) as allowing for early 
implementation of contingency measures. The court concluded that a 
contingency measure must take effect at the time the area fails to 
make RFP or attain by the applicable attainment date, not before.
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    The 2018 SIP Update includes updates for 8 different California 
ozone nonattainment areas. We have already taken action to approve the 
San Joaquin Valley portion of the 2018 SIP Update,\32\ and in today's 
document, we are taking action on the South Coast portion of the 2018 
SIP Update. Also, to supplement the contingency measure element of the 
2016 South Coast Ozone SIP, CARB forwarded a January 29, 2019 letter of 
commitment from the District.\33\ In its letter, the District commits 
to modify an existing rule or adopt a new rule to create a contingency 
measure that will be triggered if the area fails to meet an RFP 
milestone for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.\34\ In the February 13, 2019 
letter, CARB commits to submit the revised District rule to the EPA as 
a SIP revision within 12 months of the final action on the EPA's final 
action on the RFP contingency measure element of the 2016 South Coast 
Ozone SIP.\35\
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    \32\ 84 FR 11198 (March 25, 2019). In our March 25, 2019 final 
rule, the EPA approved Resolution 18-50 (adopting the 2018 SIP 
Update as a SIP revision), including Attachments A (``Covered 
Districts''), B (``Menu of Enhanced Enforcement Actions'') and C 
(``Correction of Typographical Error''), chapter VIII (``SIP 
Elements for the San Joaquin Valley''), chapter X (``Contingency 
Measures'') and Appendix A (``Nonattainment Area Inventories''), A-
1, A-2 and A-27 through A-30, only.
    \33\ Letter dated February 13, 2019, from Richard Corey, 
Executive Officer, CARB, to Mike Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA 
Region IX.
    \34\ Letter dated January 29, 2019, from Wayne Nastri, SCAQMD 
Executive Officer, to Richard Corey, CARB Executive Officer. The 
District clarified its January 29, 2019 commitment in a letter dated 
May 2, 2019, from Wayne Nastri, SCAQMD Executive Officer, to Richard 
Corey, CARB Executive Officer. CARB forwarded the District's 
clarification to the EPA in a letter dated May 20, 2019, from 
Michael Benjamin, CARB, to Amy Zimpfer, EPA Region IX.
    \35\ Letter dated February 13, 2019, from Richard Corey, 
Executive Officer, CARB, to Mike Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA 
Region IX.
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4. SCAQMD's Updated Attainment Demonstration for the 1-Hour Ozone NAAQS
    On December 20, 2018, CARB submitted the Updated Federal 1979 1-
Hour Ozone Standard Attainment Demonstration (November 2018) (``1-Hour 
Ozone Update'') to the EPA as a revision to the California SIP.\36\ The 
emissions inventories used for the 1997 and 2008 (8-hour) ozone 
attainment demonstrations in the 2016 AQMP reflect planning assumptions 
that were updated after the District had completed the 1-hour ozone 
attainment demonstration for the 2016 AQMP, and the District prepared 
the 1-Hour Ozone Update to align the attainment demonstration for the 
1-hour ozone NAAQS with the attainment demonstrations in the 2016 AQMP 
for the 1997 and 2008 ozone NAAQS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \36\ Letter dated December 20, 2018, from Richard Corey, 
Executive Officer, CARB, to Mike Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA 
Region IX.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The 1-Hour Ozone Update includes an updated emissions inventory 
consistent with the final emissions inventory used for the 8-hour ozone 
attainment demonstrations in the 2016 AQMP, revised air quality 
modeling, and an updated attainment strategy that demonstrates 
attainment of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by 2022 without the need for 
reductions from CAA section 182(e)(5) new technology measures. While 
the updated attainment demonstration for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS no 
longer relies on emissions reductions from the 2016 State Strategy or 
CAA section 182(e)(5) measures, it continues to rely on the District's 
commitment from the 2016 AQMP to achieve aggregate emissions reductions 
of 20.6 tpd of NOX and 6.1 tpd of VOC by 2022.
5. SCAQMD's Rule 301 (``Permitting and Associated Fees'')
    On May 20, 2019, CARB requested that the EPA accept a public draft 
revision to District Rule 301 (``Permitting and Associated Fees'') for 
parallel processing.\37\ Under the EPA's parallel processing procedure, 
the EPA may propose action on a public draft version of a SIP revision 
but will take final action only after the state adopts and submits the 
final version to the EPA for approval.\38\ If there are no significant 
changes from the public draft version of the SIP revision to the final 
version, the EPA may elect to take final action on the proposal. The 
draft revision was released for public review on May 17, 2019. In this 
case, it is anticipated that the District will adopt without 
significant modifications revised Rule 301 on July 12, 2019 and will 
submit the revised rule to CARB for adoption and submittal to the EPA 
as a revision to the California SIP. We are proposing our action based 
on the public draft version of revised Rule 301 submitted to us for 
parallel processing on May 20, 2019.
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    \37\ Letter dated May 20, 2019, from Richard Corey, CARB 
Executive Officer, to Michael Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA 
Region IX.
    \38\ See 40 CFR part 51, appendix V, section 2.3.
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    District Rule 301 includes a number of provisions related solely to 
fees, which are not required to be in the SIP, but, it also includes 
certain provisions (specifically, paragraphs (e)(1)(A) and (B), (e)(2), 
(e)(5) and (e)(8)) that require annual reporting of emissions of VOC 
and NOX from certain stationary sources. The relevant 
provisions of District Rule 301 are intended by the District and CARB 
to address the emissions statement requirement in CAA section 
182(a)(3)(B) for the South Coast for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. In this 
document, we are proposing action on the relevant portions of revised 
District Rule 301 based on the public draft version of the rule 
submitted to us for parallel processing on May 20, 2019.

B. Clean Air Act Procedural Requirements for Adoption and Submission of 
SIP Revisions

    CAA sections 110(a) and 110(l) require a state to provide 
reasonable public notice and opportunity for public hearing prior to 
the adoption and submission of a SIP or SIP revision. To meet this 
requirement, every SIP submittal should include evidence that adequate 
public notice was given and an opportunity for a public hearing was 
provided consistent with the EPA's implementing regulations in 40 CFR 
51.102.
    Both the District and CARB have satisfied the applicable statutory 
and regulatory requirements for reasonable public notice and hearing 
prior to the adoption and submittal of the SIP revisions that comprise 
the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP. With respect to the 2016 AQMP, the 
District held six regional workshops from July 14 through July 21, 2016 
to discuss the plan and solicit public input. On December 19 and 20, 
2016, the District published notices in several local newspapers of a 
public hearing to be held on February 3, 2017, for the adoption of the 
2016 AQMP.\39\ On February 3, 2017, the District held the public 
hearing, and, through Resolution 17-2, adopted on March 3, 2017, the 
2016 AQMP and directed the Executive Officer to forward the plan to 
CARB for inclusion in the California SIP.
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    \39\ Memorandum dated January 24, 2017, from Denise Garzaro, 
Clerk of the Boards, SCAQMD to Arlene Martinez, Administrative 
Secretary, Planning, Rule Development and Area Sources, SCAQMD. The 
memorandum includes copies of the proofs of publication of the 
notice for the February 3, 2017 public hearing.
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    CARB also provided public notice and opportunity for public comment 
on the 2016 AQMP. On March 6, 2017, CARB

[[Page 28137]]

released for public review its Staff Report for the 2016 AQMP and 
published a notice of public meeting to be held on March 23, 2017, to 
consider adoption of the 2016 AQMP.\40\ On March 23, 2017, CARB held 
the hearing and adopted the 2016 AQMP as a revision to the California 
SIP, excluding those portions not required to be submitted to the EPA, 
and directed the Executive Officer to submit the 2016 AQMP to the EPA 
for approval into the California SIP.\41\ On April 27, 2017, the 
Executive Officer of CARB submitted the 2016 AQMP to the EPA and 
included the transcript of the hearing held on March 23, 2017.\42\ On 
October 23, 2017, the EPA determined that the portions of this 
submittal applicable to the 2008 ozone NAAQS were complete.\43\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \40\ Notice of Public Meeting to Consider Adopting the 2016 Air 
Quality Management Plan for Ozone and PM2.5 for the South 
Coast Air Basin and the Coachella Valley signed by Richard Corey, 
Executive Officer, CARB, March 6, 2017.
    \41\ CARB Resolution 17-8, 10.
    \42\ Transcript of the March 23, 2017 Meeting of the State of 
California Air Resources Board.
    \43\ Letter dated October 23, 2017, from Matthew J. Lakin, 
Acting Director, Air Division, EPA Region IX to Richard Corey, 
Executive Officer, CARB.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    With respect to the 2016 State Strategy, on May 17, 2016, CARB 
circulated for public review and comment the Proposed State Strategy, 
provided a 60-day comment period, and provided notice of a public 
hearing by its Board to be held on September 22, 2016. On March 7, 
2017, in response to comments received during the public comment period 
and later during public workshops, and, based on Board direction 
provided to staff during the September 22, 2016 Board meeting, CARB 
released a Revised Proposed State Strategy. On March 23, 2017, through 
Resolution 17-7, CARB adopted the 2016 State Strategy following public 
hearing. On April 27, 2017, CARB submitted the 2016 State Strategy to 
the EPA as a revision to the California SIP.
    With respect to the 2018 SIP Update, CARB also provided public 
notice and opportunity for public comment. On September 21, 2018, CARB 
released for public review the 2018 SIP Update and published a notice 
of public meeting to be held on October 23, 2018, to consider adoption 
of the 2018 SIP Update.\44\ On October 23, 2018, through Resolution 18-
50, CARB adopted the 2018 SIP Update. On December 5, 2018, CARB 
submitted the 2018 SIP Update to the EPA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \44\ Notice of Public Meeting to Consider the 2018 Updates to 
the California State Implementation Plan signed by Richard Corey, 
Executive Officer, CARB, September 21, 2018.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    With respect to the 1-Hour Ozone Update, the District held a 
workshop on September 20, 2018. On October 3, 2018, the District 
published notices in several local newspapers for a public hearing to 
be held on November 2, 2018, for the adoption of the 1-Hour Ozone 
Update.\45\ On November 2, 2018, the District held the public hearing, 
and, through Resolution 18-20, adopted the 1-Hour Ozone Update and 
directed the Executive Officer to forward the plan to CARB for 
inclusion in the California SIP. On November 9, 2018, CARB published a 
notice of public meeting to be held on December 5, 2018, to consider 
adoption of the 1-Hour Ozone Update.\46\ On December 13, 2018, through 
Resolution 18-55, CARB adopted the 1-Hour Ozone Update, and on December 
20, 2018, CARB submitted the 1-Hour Ozone Update to the EPA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \45\ See proofs of publications dated October 3, 2018, from the 
Inland Daily Bulletin, Los Angeles Daily Journal, Orange County 
Reporter, The Press Enterprise, and San Bernardino Sun.
    \46\ Notice of Public Meeting to Consider the Proposed Revision 
to the South Coast 1-Hr Ozone State Implementation Plan signed by 
Richard Corey, Executive Officer, CARB, November 9, 2018.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    With respect to District Rule 301, by letter dated May 20, 2019, 
CARB submitted the public draft revision to District Rule 301 to the 
EPA with a request for parallel processing. The District is expected to 
adopt the revision on July 12, 2019, and to forward the rule (along 
with the necessary public process documentation) to CARB for approval 
and submittal to the EPA as a revision the California SIP.
    Based on information provided in each of the SIP revisions 
summarized above, the EPA has determined that all hearings were 
properly noticed. Therefore, we find that the submittals of the 2016 
AQMP, the 2016 State Strategy, the 2018 SIP Update, and the 1-Hour 
Ozone Update meet the procedural requirements for public notice and 
hearing in CAA sections 110(a) and 110(l) and 40 CFR 51.102. We 
anticipate receipt of all the necessary public process documentation 
for adoption of District Rule 301 when we receive the formal SIP 
submittal package from CARB.

III. Evaluation of the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP

A. Emissions Inventories

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
    CAA sections 172(c)(3) and 182(a)(1) require states to submit for 
each ozone nonattainment area a ``base year inventory'' that is a 
comprehensive, accurate, current inventory of actual emissions from all 
sources of the relevant pollutant or pollutants in the area. In 
addition, the 2008 Ozone SRR requires that the inventory year be 
selected consistent with the baseline year for the RFP demonstration, 
which is the most recent calendar year for which a complete triennial 
inventory is required to be submitted to the EPA under the Air 
Emissions Reporting Requirements.\47\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \47\ 2008 Ozone SRR at 40 CFR 51.1115(a) and the Air Emissions 
Reporting Requirements at 40 CFR part 51 subpart A.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The EPA has issued guidance on the development of base year and 
future year emissions inventories for 8-hour ozone and other 
pollutants.\48\ Emissions inventories for ozone must include emissions 
of VOC and NOX and represent emissions for a typical ozone 
season weekday.\49\ States should include documentation explaining how 
the emissions data were calculated. In estimating mobile source 
emissions, states should use the latest emissions models and planning 
assumptions available at the time the SIP is developed.\50\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \48\ ``Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone 
and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards 
(NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations,'' EPA-454/B-17-002, May 2017. 
At the time the 2016 AQMP was developed, the following EPA emissions 
inventory guidance applied: ``Emissions Inventory Guidance for 
Implementation of Ozone and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air 
Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations'' EPA-454-R-
05-001, November 2005.
    \49\ 40 CFR 51.1115(a) and (c), and 40 CFR 51.1100(bb) and (cc).
    \50\ 80 FR 12264, at 12290 (March 6, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Future baseline emissions inventories must reflect the most recent 
population, employment, travel and congestion estimates for the area. 
In this context, ``baseline'' emissions inventories refer to emissions 
estimates for a given year and area that reflect rules and regulations 
and other measures that are already adopted. Future baseline emissions 
inventories are necessary to show the projected effectiveness of SIP 
control measures. Both the base year and future year inventories are 
necessary for photochemical modeling to demonstrate attainment.
2. Summary of State's Submission
    The 2016 AQMP includes base year (2012) and future year baseline 
inventories for NOX and VOC for the South Coast ozone 
nonattainment area. Documentation for the inventories is found in 
Chapter 3 (``Base Year and Future Emissions'') and Appendix III (``Base 
Year and Future Year Emission Inventory'') of the 2016 AQMP. Because 
ozone levels in South Coast are typically higher from May through 
October, these

[[Page 28138]]

inventories represent average summer day emissions. The 2012 base year 
and future year inventories in the 2016 AQMP reflect District rules 
adopted prior to December 2015 and CARB rules adopted by November 2015. 
Both base year and projected future year inventories use the current 
EPA-approved version of California's mobile source emissions model, 
EMFAC2014, for estimating on-road motor vehicle emissions.\51\
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    \51\ 80 FR 77337 (December 14, 2015). EMFAC is short for 
EMission FACtor. The EPA announced the availability of the EMFAC2014 
model for use in state implementation plan development and 
transportation conformity in California on December 14, 2015. The 
EPA's approval of the EMFAC2014 emissions model for SIP and 
conformity purposes was effective on the date of publication of the 
notice in the Federal Register.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    VOC and NOX emissions estimates in the 2016 AQMP are 
grouped into two general categories, stationary sources and mobile 
sources. Stationary sources are further divided into ``point'' and 
``area'' sources. Point sources typically refer to permitted facilities 
and have one or more identified and fixed pieces of equipment and 
emissions points. Area sources consist of widespread and numerous 
smaller emission sources, such as small permitted facilities, 
households, and road dust. The mobile sources category is divided into 
two major subcategories, ``on-road'' and ``off-road'' mobile sources. 
On-road mobile sources include light-duty automobiles, light-, medium-, 
and heavy-duty trucks, and motorcycles. Off-road mobile sources include 
aircraft, locomotives, construction equipment, mobile equipment, and 
recreational vehicles.
    For the 2016 AQMP, point source emissions for the 2012 base year 
emissions inventory are based on reported data from facilities using 
the District's annual emissions reporting program, which applies under 
District Rule 301 to stationary sources in the South Coast that emit 
more than 4 tons per year (tpy) or more of VOC or NOX. Area 
sources include smaller emissions sources distributed across the 
nonattainment area. CARB and the District estimate emissions for about 
400 area source categories using established inventory methods, 
including publicly-available emission factors and activity information. 
Activity data are derived from national survey data such as the Energy 
Information Administration or from local sources such as the Southern 
California Gas Company, paint suppliers, and District databases. 
Emission factors used for the estimates come from a number of sources 
including source tests, compliance reports, and the EPA's compilation 
of emissions factor document known as ``AP-42.''
    On-road emissions inventories in the 2016 AQMP are calculated using 
CARB's EMFAC2014 model and the travel activity data provided by SCAG in 
``The 2016-2040 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities 
Strategy.'' \52\ CARB provided emissions inventories for off-road 
equipment, including construction and mining equipment, industrial and 
commercial equipment, lawn and garden equipment, agricultural 
equipment, ocean-going vessels, commercial harbor craft, locomotives, 
cargo handling equipment, pleasure craft, and recreational vehicles. 
CARB uses several models to estimate emissions for more than one 
hundred off-road equipment categories.\53\ Aircraft emissions are 
developed in conjunction with the airports in the region. For the base 
year and future attainment year inventories, marine vessel emissions 
out to 100 nautical miles from the coastline are included.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \52\ See http://scagrtpscs.net/Pages/FINAL2016RTPSCS.aspx.
    \53\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix III, page III-1-24.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Table 1 provides a summary of the District's 2012 base year and 
future attainment year baseline emissions estimates in tons per average 
summer day for NOX and VOC. These inventories provide the 
basis for the control measure analysis and the attainment 
demonstrations in the 2016 AQMP. Based on the inventory for 2012, 
stationary and area sources currently account for roughly 40 percent of 
VOC emissions and 10 percent of the NOX emissions in the 
South Coast while mobile sources account for roughly 60 percent of the 
VOC emissions and 90 percent of the NOX emissions. For a 
more detailed discussion of the inventories, see Appendix III of the 
2016 AQMP.

                                    Table 1--South Coast Base Year and Attainment Year Baseline Emissions Inventories
                                                            [Summer planning inventory, tpd]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                   2012                    2022                    2023                    2031
                        Category                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              NOX         VOC         NOX         VOC         NOX         VOC         NOX         VOC
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stationary and Area Sources.............................          65         211          50         220          50         220          50         231
On-Road Mobile Sources..................................         293         162         117          71          88          68          65          49
Off-Road Mobile Sources.................................         165         126         120          92         117          90         100          81
                                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total...............................................         522         500         287         383         255         379         214         362
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2016 AQMP, Chapter 3, tables 3-2, 3-4B, 3-4C and 3-4E. The sum of the emissions values may not equal the total shown due to rounding of the
  numbers.

    Future emissions forecasts in the 2016 AQMP are primarily based on 
demographic and economic growth projections provided by SCAG, the 
metropolitan planning organization (MPO) for the South Coast, and 
control factors developed by the District in reference to the 2012 base 
year. Growth factors used to project these baseline inventories are 
derived mainly from data obtained from SCAG.\54\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \54\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix III, page III-2-6.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
    We have reviewed the 2012 base year emissions inventory in the 2016 
AQMP, and the inventory methodologies used by the District and CARB, 
for consistency with CAA requirements and EPA's guidance. First, as 
required by EPA regulation, we find that the 2012 inventory includes 
estimates for VOC and NOX for a typical ozone season 
weekday, and that CARB has provided adequate documentation explaining 
how the emissions are calculated. Second, we find that the 2012 base 
year emissions inventory in the 2016 AQMP reflects appropriate 
emissions models and methodologies, and, therefore, represents a 
comprehensive, accurate, and current inventory of actual emissions 
during that year in the South Coast nonattainment area. Third, we

[[Page 28139]]

find that selection of year 2012 for the base year emissions inventory 
is appropriate because it is consistent with the 2011 RFP baseline year 
(from the 2018 SIP Update) because both inventories are derived from a 
common set of models and methods. Lastly, although the requirement for 
a base year emissions inventory applies to the nonattainment area, we 
find that the inclusion of marine emissions out to 100 miles (i.e., 
beyond the nonattainment area boundary, which lies 3 miles offshore) in 
the base year inventory to be appropriate given that such emissions 
must be accounted for in the ozone attainment demonstrations. 
Therefore, the EPA is proposing to approve the 2012 emissions inventory 
in the 2016 AQMP as meeting the requirements for a base year inventory 
set forth in CAA section 182(a)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1115.
    With respect to future year baseline projections, we have reviewed 
the growth and control factors and find them acceptable and conclude 
that the future baseline emissions projections in the 2016 AQMP reflect 
appropriate calculation methods and the latest planning assumptions. 
Also, as a general matter, the EPA will approve a SIP revision that 
takes emissions reduction credit for a control measure only where the 
EPA has approved the measure as part of the SIP. Thus, to take credit 
for the emissions reductions from newly-adopted or amended District 
rules for stationary sources, the related rules must be approved by the 
EPA into the SIP. Table 2 in the technical support document (TSD) 
accompanying this rulemaking shows District rules with post-2012 
compliance dates that were incorporated in the future year inventories, 
along with information on EPA approval of these rules, and shows that 
emissions reductions assumed by the 2016 AQMP for future years for 
stationary sources are supported by rules approved as part of the SIP. 
With respect to mobile sources, the EPA has taken action in recent 
years to approve CARB mobile source regulations into the California 
SIP.\55\ We therefore find that the future year baseline projections in 
the 2016 AQMP are properly supported by SIP-approved stationary and 
mobile source measures.\56\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \55\ See 81 FR 39424 (June 16, 2016), 82 FR 14446 (March 21, 
2017), and 83 FR 23232 (May 18, 2018).
    \56\ In August 2018, the U.S. Department of Transportation and 
the EPA published the proposed ``Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient 
(SAFE) Vehicles Rule'' (``SAFE rule'') that, among other things, 
proposes to withdraw the EPA's 2013 waiver of preemption for CARB's 
Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) 
standards that are applicable to new model year 2021 through 2025 
light-duty vehicles. See 83 FR 42986 (August 24, 2018) and 78 FR 
2112 (January 9, 2013). The baseline emissions projections in the 
2016 South Coast Ozone SIP assume implementation of the ZEV mandate 
and GHG standards. In its comments on the SAFE proposal, CARB 
estimates an emission increase of 1.2 tons per day of NOX 
in the South Coast if the SAFE rule is finalized. See ``Analysis in 
Support of Comments of the California Air Resources Board on the 
Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule for Model Years 
2021-2026 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks,'' CARB, October 26, 2018. 
At this time, we cannot predict the date of final action on the SAFE 
rule, nor can we pre-judge the outcome of the final rule. This 
proposed action reflects the emissions projections in the 2016 South 
Coast Ozone SIP. If the SAFE rule is finalized prior to our final 
rulemaking on the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP, we will evaluate and 
address, as appropriate, the impact of the final SAFE rule on our 
proposed action.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

B. Emissions Statement

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
    Section 182(a)(3)(B)(i) of the Act requires states to submit a SIP 
revision requiring owners or operators of stationary sources of VOC or 
NOX to provide the state with statements of actual emissions 
from such sources. Statements must be submitted at least every year and 
must contain a certification that the information contained in the 
statement is accurate to the best knowledge of the individual 
certifying the statement. Section 182(a)(3)(B)(ii) of the Act allows 
states to waive the emissions statement requirement for any class or 
category of stationary sources that emit less than 25 tpy of VOC or 
NOX, if the state provides an inventory of emissions from 
such class or category of sources as part of the base year or periodic 
inventories required under CAA sections 182(a)(1) and 182(a)(3)(A), 
based on the use of emission factors established by the EPA or other 
methods acceptable to the EPA.
    The preamble of the 2008 Ozone SRR states that if an area has a 
previously approved emissions statement rule for the 1997 ozone NAAQS 
or the 1-hour ozone NAAQS that covers all portions of the nonattainment 
area for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, such rule should be sufficient for 
purposes of the emissions statement requirement for the 2008 ozone 
NAAQS.\57\ The state should review the existing rule to ensure it is 
adequate and, if so, may rely on it to meet the emission statement 
requirement for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. Where an existing emission 
statement requirement is still adequate to meet the requirements of 
this rule, states can provide the rationale for that determination to 
the EPA in a written statement in the SIP to meet this requirement. 
States should identify the various requirements and how each is met by 
the existing emissions statement program. Where an emissions statement 
requirement is modified for any reason, states must provide the 
revision to the emissions statement as part of its SIP.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \57\ See 80 FR 12264, at 12291 (March 6, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Summary of the State's Submission
    The 2016 AQMP addresses compliance with the emissions statement 
requirement in CAA section 182(a)(3)(B) for the 2008 ozone NAAQS by 
reference to District Rule 301 (``Permitting and Associated Fees'') 
that, among other things, requires emissions reporting from all 
stationary sources of NOX and VOC greater than or equal to 4 
tpy. On May 20, 2019, CARB submitted certain provisions from a public 
draft version of District Rule 301 to the EPA for parallel processing. 
Once adopted, the District will be forwarding the revised rule to CARB 
for adoption and submittal to the EPA as a revision to the California 
SIP.
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
    For this action, we have evaluated the public draft version of 
District Rule 301 (i.e., the relevant portions of the rule--paragraphs 
(e)(1)(A) and (B), (e)(2), (e)(5) and (e)(8)), as submitted for 
parallel processing on May 20, 2019, for compliance with the specific 
requirements for emissions statements under CAA section 
182(a)(3)(B).\58\ We find that District Rule 301 (paragraphs (e)(1)(A) 
and (B), (e)(2), (e)(5) and (e)(8)) applies within the entire ozone 
nonattainment area; applies to all permit holders and to all equipment 
operating under permit; and requires reporting, on an annual basis, of 
total emissions of various air pollutants, including VOC and 
NOX, if emissions of any one pollutant are equal to or 
greater than 4 tpy. Also, as required under CAA section 182(a)(3)(B), 
District Rule 301 requires certification that the information provided 
to the District is accurate to the best knowledge of the individual 
certifying the emissions data.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \58\ District Rule 301 covers a wide array of fees and is over 
90 pages long. We are proposing action only on those few sections of 
the rule that are relevant to the emissions statement requirement.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    We also note that, while the emissions reporting requirements in 
District Rule 301 do not apply to permitted sources of emissions less 
than 4 tpy, such an exclusion is allowed under CAA section 
182(a)(3)(B)(ii) so long as the state includes estimates of such class 
or category of stationary sources in base year emission inventories and 
periodic inventories submitted under CAA sections 182(a)(1) and 
182(a)(3)(A), based on EPA emission factors or other

[[Page 28140]]

methods acceptable to the EPA. We recognize that emissions inventories 
developed by the SCAQMD for the South Coast routinely include actual 
emissions estimates for all stationary sources or classes or categories 
of such sources, including those emitting less than 4 tpy, and that 
such inventories provide the basis for inventories submitted to meet 
the requirements of CAA sections 182(a)(1) and 182(a)(3)(A). By 
approval of emission inventories as meeting the requirements of CAA 
sections 182(a)(1) and 182(a)(3)(A), the EPA is implicitly accepting 
the methods and factors used by the SCAQMD to develop those emission 
estimates. Our most recent approval of a base year emission inventory 
for the South Coast is found at 77 FR 12674 (March 1, 2012) (approval 
of base year emission inventory for the 1997 ozone NAAQS). In addition, 
we are proposing approval of the base year inventory for the 2008 ozone 
NAAQS in this action.
    Therefore, for the reasons described in the preceding paragraphs, 
we propose to approve the public draft version of District Rule 301 
(paragraphs (e)(1)(A) and (B), (e)(2), (e)(5) and (e)(8)) as meeting 
the emissions statement requirements under CAA section 182(a)(3)(B). We 
will not take final action on District Rule 301 until we receive the 
formal SIP submittal package from CARB including the final adopted 
version of the relevant portions of the rule.

C. Reasonably Available Control Measures Demonstration and Control 
Strategy

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
    CAA section 172(c)(1) requires that each attainment plan provide 
for the implementation of all RACM as expeditiously as practicable 
(including such reductions in emissions from existing sources in the 
area as may be obtained through implementation of reasonably available 
control technology), and also provide for attainment of the NAAQS. The 
2008 Ozone SRR requires that, for each nonattainment area required to 
submit an attainment demonstration, the state concurrently submit a SIP 
revision demonstrating that it has adopted all RACM necessary to 
demonstrate attainment as expeditiously as practicable and to meet any 
RFP requirements.\59\
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    \59\ 40 CFR 51.1112(c).
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    The EPA has previously provided guidance interpreting the RACM 
requirement in the General Preamble for the Implementation of the Clean 
Air Act Amendments of 1990 and in a memorandum entitled ``Guidance on 
the Reasonably Available Control Measure Requirement and Attainment 
Demonstration Submissions for Ozone Nonattainment Areas.'' \60\ In 
short, to address the requirement to adopt all RACM, states should 
consider all potentially reasonable control measures for source 
categories in the nonattainment area to determine whether they are 
reasonably available for implementation in that area and whether they 
would, if implemented individually or collectively, advance the area's 
attainment date by one year or more.\61\ Any measures that are 
necessary to meet these requirements that are not already either 
federally promulgated, or part of the state's SIP, must be submitted in 
enforceable form as part of the state's attainment plan for the 
area.\62\
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    \60\ See General Preamble, 57 FR 13498 at 13560 (April 16, 1992) 
and memorandum dated November 30, 1999, from John Seitz, Director, 
OAQPS, to Regional Air Directors, titled ``Guidance on the 
Reasonably Available Control Measure Requirement and Attainment 
Demonstration Submissions for Ozone Nonattainment Areas.''
    \61\ Id. See also 44 FR 20372 (April 4, 1979), and memorandum 
dated December 14, 2000, from John S. Seitz, Director, OAQPS, to 
Regional Air Directors, titled ``Additional Submission on RACM From 
States with Severe One-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area SIPs.''
    \62\ For ozone nonattainment areas classified as Moderate or 
above, CAA section 182(b)(2) also requires implementation of 
reasonably available control technology (RACT) for all major sources 
of VOC and for each VOC source category for which the EPA has issued 
a control techniques guideline. CAA section 182(f) requires that 
RACT under section 182(b)(2) also apply to major stationary sources 
of NOX. In Extreme areas, a major source is a stationary 
source that emits or has the potential to emit at least 10 tpy of 
VOC or NOX (see CAA section 182(e) and (f)). Under the 
2008 Ozone SRR, states were required to submit SIP revisions meeting 
the RACT requirements of CAA sections 182(b)(2) and 182(f) no later 
than 24 months after the effective date of designation for the 2008 
Ozone NAAQS and to implement the required RACT measures as 
expeditiously as practicable but no later than January 1 of the 5th 
year after the effective date of designation (see 40 CFR 
51.1112(a)). California submitted the CAA section 182 RACT SIP for 
the South Coast on July 18, 2014, and the EPA fully approved this 
submission at 82 FR 43850 (September 20, 2017).
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2. Summary of the State's Submission
    For the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP, the District, CARB, and SCAG 
each undertook a process to identify and evaluate potential RACM that 
could contribute to expeditious attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS in 
the South Coast. We describe each agency's efforts below.
a. District's RACM Analysis
    The District's RACM demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS focuses 
on stationary and area source controls, and it is described in Appendix 
VI-A (``Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM)/Best Available 
Control Measures (BACM) Demonstration'') of the 2016 AQMP. Appendix VI-
A contains analyses of all potential control measures for emission 
reduction opportunities, as well as economic and technological 
feasibility.
    As a first step in the RACM analysis, the District prepared a 
detailed inventory of emissions sources that emit VOC and 
NOX to identify source categories from which emissions 
reductions would effectively contribute to attainment. Details on the 
methodology and development of the emission inventory are discussed in 
chapter 3 and appendix III of the 2016 AQMP. A total of 76 source 
categories are included in the base year emission inventory, 46 
represent stationary and area sources and 30 for mobile sources.\63\
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    \63\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix VI-A, Table VI-A-3.
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    The District's RACM analysis builds upon a foundation of District 
rules developed for earlier ozone plans and approved as part of the 
SIP. We provide a list of the District's NOX and VOC rules 
approved into the California SIP in Table 1 of our TSD for this 
proposed action. The 86 SIP-approved District VOC or NOX 
rules listed in Table 1 of our TSD establish emission limits or other 
types of emissions controls for a wide range of sources, including use 
of solvents, refineries, gasoline storage, architectural coatings, 
spray booths, various types of commercial coatings, boilers, steam 
generators and process heaters, oil and gas production well, marine 
tank vessel operations, and many more. These rules have already 
provided significant and ongoing reductions toward attainment of the 
2008 ozone NAAQS by 2031.
    To demonstrate that the SCAQMD considered all candidate measures 
that are available and technologically and economically feasible, the 
District conducted a six-step analysis, as described below.
    Step 1. 2015 Air Quality Technology Symposium (``2015 Symposium'').
    The 2015 Symposium was held on June 10 and 11, 2015, with 
participation of technical experts and the public to solicit new and 
innovative concepts to assist in attaining the 1997 and 2008 ozone 
NAAQS by the applicable attainment dates. The SCAQMD also conducted an 
extensive outreach to engage a wide range of stakeholders in the 
process.

[[Page 28141]]

    Step 2. Reasonably Available Control Technology/Best Available 
Control Technology Analysis.\64\
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    \64\ BACM, including BACT, is a requirement for certain 
PM2.5 nonattainment areas. BACM is not a requirement for 
ozone nonattainment areas, but because the District addresses both 
PM2.5 and ozone in its 2016 AQMP, the District prepared 
an analysis that addresses both RACT and BACT.
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    The District's Reasonably Available Control Technology/Best 
Available Control Technology (RACT/BACT) analysis found four VOC or 
NOX SCAQMD rules (i.e., District Rules 462 (``Organic Liquid 
Loading''), 1115 (``Motor Vehicle Assembly Line Coating Operations''), 
1118 (``Control of Emissions from Refinery Flares'') and 1138 
(``Control of Emissions from Restaurant Operations'')) that are less 
stringent than EPA control techniques guidelines or analogous rules in 
other air districts. The SCAQMD evaluated the rules as candidate 
potential measures.
    Step 3. EPA TSDs.
    The District researched TSDs from recent EPA rulemakings on South 
Coast rules for EPA recommendations on potential control measures. The 
TSD for EPA's action on South Coast Rule 1125, ``Metal Container, 
Closure, and Coil Coating Operations'' (amended March 7, 2008) was the 
only applicable and recent TSD that met the criteria for review.
    Step 4. Control measures in other areas.
    The District reviewed control measures in other areas (i.e., 
Ventura County, San Francisco Bay Area, San Joaquin Valley, Sacramento 
Metropolitan, Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston-Galveston-Brazoria, New 
York, and New Jersey) to evaluate whether control technologies 
available and cost-effective within other areas would be available and 
cost-effective for use in the South Coast.
    Step 5. Control Measures beyond RACM in 2012 AQMP.
    The District updated the RACM analysis for four control measures 
that were determined to be beyond RACM in the analysis for the prior 
2012 AQMP, including reconsideration of emission reductions of VOC from 
greenwaste composting.
    Step 6. EPA Menu of Control Measures.
    The Menu of Control Measures (MCM) \65\ compiled by the EPA's 
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards was created to provide 
information useful in the development of emission reduction strategies 
and to identify and evaluate potential control measures. District staff 
reviewed the MCM for point and nonpoint sources of NOX and 
VOC.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \65\ EPA, MCM, http://www3.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/pdfs/MenuOfControlMeasures.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The District provides a comprehensive evaluation of its RACM 
control strategy in Appendix VI-A of the 2016 AQMP. The evaluation 
includes the following: Description of the sources within the category 
or sources subject to the rule; base year and projected baseline year 
emissions for the source category affected by the rule; discussion of 
the current requirements of the rule; and discussion of potential 
additional control measures, including, in many cases, a discussion of 
the technological and economic feasibility of the additional control 
measures. This includes comparison of each District rule to analogous 
control measures adopted by other agencies.
    Based on its RACM analysis for stationary and area sources under 
its jurisdiction, the District identified the following three 
additional RACM with quantifiable VOC and NOX emission 
reductions: CMB-02--Emission Reductions from Replacement with Zero or 
Near-Zero NOX Appliances in Commercial and Residential 
Applications; CMB-03--Emission Reductions from Non-Refinery Flares; and 
BCM-10--Emission Reductions from Greenwaste Composting. These three 
RACM are included in the District's stationary source measures in Table 
4-2 of the 2016 AQMP that the District Board adopted through Resolution 
17-2. The District estimates that the three RACM measures, once adopted 
and implemented, will reduce VOC emissions by 1.9 tpd by 2022 and 2023 
and by 2.2 tpd by 2031, and will reduce NOX emissions by 2.5 
tpd by 2022 and 2023 and by 4.3 tpd 2031. See tables 4-9, 4-10 and 4-11 
of the 2016 AQMP. As to the few remaining measures that the District 
rejected from its RACM analysis, the District determined that these 
measures would not collectively advance the attainment date or 
contribute to RFP due to the uncertain or non-quantifiable emissions 
reductions they would potentially generate.\66\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \66\ See 2016 AQMP, Appendix VI-A, page VI-A-40, and Attachments 
VI-A-1c, VI-A-1d, and VI-A-2.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Based on its evaluation of all available measures, the District 
concludes that the District's existing rules are generally as stringent 
as, or more stringent than the analogous rules in other districts. 
Further, the District concludes that, based on its comprehensive review 
and evaluation of potential candidate measures and the adoption of 
commitments to implement the three measures determined to be 
technologically and economically feasible, the District meets the RACM 
requirement for the 2008 ozone NAAQS for all sources under the 
District's jurisdiction.
b. Local Jurisdictions' RACM Analysis and Transportation Control 
Measures
    Appendix IV-C, Regional Transportation Strategy and Control 
Measures, of the 2016 AQMP, contains the transportation control 
measures (TCMs) RACM component for the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP. 
SCAG, the MPO for the South Coast region, conducted the local 
jurisdictions' TCM RACM analysis, which is based on SCAG's Final 2016-
2040 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy 
(2016 RTP/SCS) and 2015 Federal Transportation Improvement Program 
(FTIP) as amended. The 2016 RTP/SCS and FTIP were developed in 
consultation with federal, state and local transportation and air 
quality planning agencies and other stakeholders. The four county 
transportation commissions \67\ in the South Coast were involved in the 
development of the regional transportation measures in Appendix IV-
C.\68\
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    \67\ Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority, 
Riverside County Transportation Commission, Orange County 
Transportation Authority, and the San Bernardino County 
Transportation Authority (formerly known as the San Bernardino 
Associated Governments).
    \68\ Appendix IV-C, page IV-C-1.
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    For the TCM RACM analysis, SCAG compared the list of measures 
implemented within the South Coast with those implemented in other 
ozone and PM2.5 nonattainment areas.\69\ SCAG then organized 
measures, including candidate measures and those measures currently 
implemented in the region, according to the sixteen categories 
specified in section 108(f)(1)(A) of the CAA. SCAG found a small number 
of candidate measures that were not currently implemented in the region 
and not included in the prior 2012 AQMP TCM RACM analysis. Attachment A 
(``Committed Transportation Control Measures (TCMs)'') to Appendix IV-C 
of the 2016 AQMP lists the TCM projects that are specifically 
identified and committed to in the 2016 AQMP. The complete listing of 
all candidate measures evaluated for the RACM determination is included 
in Attachment B (``2016 South Coast AQMP Reasonably Available Control 
Measures (RACM) Analysis--TCMs'') to

[[Page 28142]]

Appendix IV-C of the 2016 AQMP. Based on its comprehensive review of 
TCM projects in other nonattainment areas or otherwise identified, SCAG 
determined that the TCMs being implemented in the South Coast are 
inclusive of all RACM.\70\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \69\ The specific nonattainment area SIPs that were reviewed for 
candidate TCMs are listed in Table 8 of Appendix IV-C of the 2016 
AQMP.
    \70\ Appendix IV-C, page IV-C-30.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

c. CARB's RACM Analysis
    CARB's RACM analysis is contained in Attachment VI-A-3 
(``California Mobile Source Control Program Best Available Control 
Measures/Reasonably Available Control Measures Assessment'') (``BACM/
RACM Assessment'') to Appendix VI-A of the 2016 AQMP. CARB's BACM/RACM 
assessment provides a general description of CARB's existing mobile 
source programs. A more detailed description of CARB's mobile source 
control program, including a comprehensive table listing on- and off-
road mobile source regulatory actions taken by CARB since 1985, is 
contained in Attachment VI-C-1 to Appendix VI-C of the 2016 AQMP. The 
BACM/RACM assessment and 2016 State Strategy collectively contain 
CARB's evaluation of mobile source and other statewide control measures 
that reduce emissions of NOX and VOC in the South Coast. The 
2016 State Strategy includes a commitment consisting of two components: 
A commitment to bring to the CARB Board, or otherwise take action on, 
certain defined new measures; and a commitment to achieve aggregate 
emissions reductions by specific dates.\71\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \71\ 2016 State Strategy, Chapter 3 (``Proposed SIP 
Commitment''), 26.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Source categories for which CARB has primary responsibility for 
reducing emissions in California include most new and existing on- and 
off-road engines and vehicles, motor vehicle fuels, and consumer 
products. CARB developed its 2016 State Strategy through a multi-step 
measure development process, including extensive public consultation, 
to develop and evaluate potential strategies for mobile source 
categories under CARB's regulatory authority that could contribute to 
expeditious attainment of the standard.\72\ Through the process of 
developing the 2016 State Strategy, CARB identified certain defined 
measures as available to achieve additional VOC and NOX 
emissions reductions from sources under CARB jurisdiction, including 
tighter requirements for new light- and medium-duty vehicles (referred 
to as the ``Advanced Clean Cars 2'' measure), a low-NOX 
engine standard for vehicles with new heavy-duty engines, tighter 
emissions standards for small off-road engines, and more stringent 
requirements for consumer products, among others.\73\ In adopting the 
2016 State Strategy, CARB commits to bringing the defined measures to 
the CARB Board for action according to the specific schedule included 
as part of the strategy.\74\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \72\ Appendix VI-A, Attachment VI-A-3, page VI-A-102.
    \73\ 2016 State Strategy, chapter 4 (``State SIP Measures'').
    \74\ CARB Resolution 17-7 (dated March 23, 2017), 7.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Given the need for substantial emissions reductions from mobile and 
area sources to meet the NAAQS in California nonattainment areas, CARB 
has been a leader in the development of stringent control measures for 
on-road and off-road mobile sources and the fuels that power them. 
California has unique authority under CAA section 209 (subject to a 
waiver by the EPA) to adopt and implement new emission standards for 
many categories of on-road vehicles and engines, and new and in-use 
off-road vehicles and engines.
    Historically, the EPA has allowed California to take into account 
emissions reductions from CARB regulations for which the EPA has issued 
waiver or authorizations under CAA section 209, notwithstanding the 
fact that these regulations have not been approved as part of the 
California SIP. However, in response to the decision by the United 
States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit (``Ninth Circuit'') in 
Committee for a Better Arvin v. EPA, the EPA has since approved mobile 
source regulations for which waiver authorizations have been issued as 
revisions to the California SIP.\75\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \75\ See, e.g., 81 FR 39424 (June 16, 2016), 82 FR 14447 (March 
21, 2017), and 83 FR 8404 (February 27, 2018). See also Committee 
for a Better Arvin, 786 F.3d 1169 (9th Cir. 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CARB's mobile source program extends beyond regulations that are 
subject to the waiver or authorization process set forth in CAA section 
209 to include standards and other requirements to control emissions 
from in-use heavy-duty trucks and buses, gasoline and diesel fuel 
specifications, and many other types of mobile sources. Generally, 
these regulations have been submitted and approved as revisions to the 
California SIP.\76\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \76\ See, e.g., the EPA's approval of standards and other 
requirements to control emissions from in-use heavy-duty diesel-
powered trucks, at 77 FR 20308 (April 4, 2012), revisions to the 
California on-road reformulated gasoline and diesel fuel regulations 
at 75 FR 26653 (May 12, 2010), and revisions to the California motor 
vehicle inspection and maintenance program at 75 FR 38023 (July 1, 
2010).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In the BACM/RACM Assessment, CARB concludes that, in light of the 
extensive public process culminating in the 2016 State Strategy, with 
the current mobile source program and proposed measures included in the 
2016 State Strategy, there are no additional RACM that would advance 
attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast. As a result, 
CARB concludes that California's mobile source programs fully meet the 
RACM requirement.\77\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \77\ Appendix VI-A, Attachment VI-A-3, page VI-A-106.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
    As described above, the District already implements many rules to 
reduce VOC and NOX emissions from stationary sources in the 
South Coast. For the 2016 AQMP, the District evaluated a range of 
potentially available measures and committed to adopt certain 
additional measures it found to be reasonably available for 
implementation in the South Coast nonattainment area (specifically, 
control measures CMB-02, CMB-03 and BCM-10). We find that the process 
followed by the District in the 2016 AQMP to identify additional RACM 
is generally consistent with the EPA's recommendations in the General 
Preamble, that the District's evaluation of potential measures to be 
appropriate, and that the District has provided reasoned justifications 
for rejection of measures deemed not reasonably available.
    With respect to mobile sources, CARB's current program addresses 
the full range of mobile sources in the South Coast through regulatory 
programs for both new and in-use vehicles. Moreover, we find that the 
process conducted by CARB to prepare the 2016 State Strategy was 
reasonably designed to identify additional available measures within 
CARB's jurisdiction, and that CARB has adopted those measures that are 
reasonably available (such as the low-NOX heavy-duty engine 
standard, among others). With respect to TCMs, we find that SCAG's 
process for identifying additional TCM RACM and conclusion that the 
TCMs being implemented in the South Coast (i.e., the TCMs listed in 
Attachment A to Appendix IV-C of the 2016 AQMP) are inclusive of all 
TCM RACM to be reasonably justified and supported.
    Based on our review of these RACM analyses and the District's and 
CARB's adopted rules, as well as the District's and CARB's commitments 
in the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy, respectively, to adopt and 
implement

[[Page 28143]]

additional control measures, we propose to find that there are, at this 
time, no additional RACM (including RACT) that would advance attainment 
of the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast. For the foregoing reasons, 
we propose to find that the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP provides for the 
implementation of all RACM as required by CAA section 172(c)(1) and 40 
CFR 51.1112(c).

D. Attainment Demonstration

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
    An attainment demonstration consists of: (1) Technical analyses, 
such as base year and future year modeling, to locate and identify 
sources of emissions that are contributing to violations of the ozone 
NAAQS within the nonattainment area (i.e., analyses related to the 
emission inventory for the nonattainment area and the emissions 
reductions necessary to attain the standard); (2) a list of adopted 
measures (including RACT controls) with schedules for implementation 
and other means and techniques necessary and appropriate for 
demonstrating RFP and attainment as expeditiously as practicable but no 
later than the outside attainment date for the area's classification; 
(3) a RACM analysis; and (4) contingency measures required under 
sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) of the CAA that can be implemented 
without further action by the state or the EPA to cover emissions 
shortfalls in RFP plans and failures to attain.\78\ This subsection of 
today's proposed rule addresses the first two components of the 
attainment demonstration--the technical analyses and a list of adopted 
measures. Section III.C (Reasonably Available Control Measures 
Demonstration and Control Technology) of this document addresses the 
RACM component, and section III.G (Contingency Measures) addresses the 
contingency measures component of the attainment demonstration in the 
2016 South Coast Ozone SIP.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \78\ 78 FR 34178, at 34184 (June 6, 2013) (proposed rule for 
implementing the 2008 ozone NAAQS).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    With respect to the technical analyses, section 182(c)(2)(A) of the 
CAA requires that a plan for an ozone nonattainment area classified 
Serious or above include a ``demonstration that the plan . . . will 
provide for attainment of the ozone [NAAQS] by the applicable 
attainment date. This attainment demonstration must be based on 
photochemical grid modeling or any other analytical method determined . 
. . to be at least as effective.'' The attainment demonstration 
predicts future ambient concentrations for comparison to the NAAQS, 
making use of available information on measured concentrations, 
meteorology, and current and projected emissions inventories of ozone 
precursors, including the effect of control measures in the plan.
    Areas classified Extreme for the 2008 ozone NAAQS must demonstrate 
attainment as expeditiously as practicable, but no later than 20 years 
after the effective date of designation to nonattainment. The South 
Coast was designated nonattainment effective July 20, 2012, and the 
area must demonstrate attainment of the standards by July 20, 2032.\79\ 
An attainment demonstration must show attainment of the standards for a 
full calendar year before the attainment date, so in practice, Extreme 
nonattainment areas must demonstrate attainment in 2031.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \79\ 80 FR 12264.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The EPA's recommended procedures for modeling ozone as part of an 
attainment demonstration are contained in ``Modeling Guidance for 
Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone, 
PM2.5, and Regional Haze'' (``Modeling Guidance'').\80\ The 
Modeling Guidance includes recommendations for a modeling protocol, 
model input preparation, model performance evaluation, use of model 
output for the numerical NAAQS attainment test, and modeling 
documentation. Air quality modeling is performed using meteorology and 
emissions from a base year, and the predicted concentrations from this 
base case modeling are compared to air quality monitoring data from 
that year to evaluate model performance.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \80\ Modeling Guidance, December 2014 Draft, EPA OAQPS; 
available at https://www.epa.gov/scram/state-implementation-plan-sip-attainment-demonstration-guidance. The 2014 modeling guidance 
updates, but is largely consistent with, the earlier ``Guidance on 
the Use of Models and Other Analyses for Demonstrating Attainment of 
Air Quality Goals for the 8-Hour Ozone and PM2.5 NAAQS 
and Regional Haze,'' EPA-454/B-07-002, April 2007. Additional EPA 
modeling guidance can be found in 40 CFR 51 Appendix W, ``Guideline 
on Air Quality Models,'' 82 FR 5182 (January 17, 2017); available at 
https://www.epa.gov/scram/clean-air-act-permit-modeling-guidance.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Once the model performance is determined to be acceptable, future 
year emissions are simulated with the model. The relative (or percent) 
change in modeled concentration due to future emissions reductions 
provides a Relative Response Factor (RRF). Each monitoring site's RRF 
is applied to its monitored base year design value to provide the 
future design value for comparison to the NAAQS. The Modeling Guidance 
also recommends supplemental air quality analyses, which may be used as 
part of a Weight of Evidence (WOE) analysis. A WOE analysis 
corroborates the attainment demonstration by considering evidence other 
than the main air quality modeling attainment test, such as trends and 
additional monitoring and modeling analyses.
    The Modeling Guidance also does not require a particular year to be 
used as the base year for 8-hour ozone plans.\81\ The Modeling Guidance 
states that the most recent year of the National Emissions Inventory 
may be appropriate for use as the base year for modeling, but that 
other years may be more appropriate when considering meteorology, 
transport patterns, exceptional events, or other factors that may vary 
from year to year.\82\ Therefore, the base year used for the attainment 
demonstration need not be the same year used to meet the requirements 
for emissions inventories and RFP.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \81\ Modeling Guidance at section 2.7.1.
    \82\ Ibid.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    With respect to the list of adopted measures, CAA section 172(c)(6) 
requires that nonattainment area plans include enforceable emission 
limitations, and such other control measures, means or techniques 
(including economic incentives such as fees, marketable permits, and 
auctions of emission rights), as well as schedules and timetables for 
compliance, as may be necessary or appropriate to provide for timely 
attainment of the NAAQS.\83\ Under the 2008 Ozone SRR, all control 
measures needed for attainment must be implemented no later than the 
beginning of the attainment year ozone season.\84\ The attainment year 
ozone season is defined as the ozone season immediately preceding a 
nonattainment area's maximum attainment date.\85\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \83\ See also CAA section 110(a)(2)(A).
    \84\ 40 CFR 51.1108(d).
    \85\ 40 CFR 51.1100(h).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Summary of the State's Submission
a. Photochemical Modeling
    The 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP updates the photochemical modeling 
for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS and the 1997 ozone NAAQS and includes 
photochemical modeling for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. The SCAQMD performed 
the air quality modeling for the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP. The 
modeling relies on a 2012 base year and demonstrates attainment of the 
1-hour ozone NAAQS in 2022, the 1997 ozone NAAQS in 2023, and the 2008 
ozone NAAQS in 2031.

[[Page 28144]]

    As a general matter, the modeling for the 2016 South Coast Ozone 
SIP represents an update to the photochemical modeling performed for 
the EPA-approved 2012 AQMP to account for more recent satellite-based 
input data, improved chemical gaseous and particulate mechanisms, 
improved computational resources and post-processing utilities, 
enhanced spatial and temporal allocations of the emissions inventory, 
and a revised attainment demonstration methodology. The modeling and 
modeled attainment demonstration are described in Chapter 5 (``Future 
Air Quality'') of the 2016 AQMP and in the 1-Hour Ozone Update. 
Appendix V (``Modeling and Attainment Demonstration'') of the 2016 AQMP 
provides a description of model input preparation procedures, various 
model configuration options, and model performance statistics. The 
modeling protocol is in Chapter 2 (``Modeling Protocol'') of Appendix V 
of the 2016 AQMP and contains all the elements recommended in the 
Modeling Guidance. Those include: Selection of model, time period to 
model, modeling domain, and model boundary conditions and 
initialization procedures; a discussion of emissions inventory 
development and other model input preparation procedures; model 
performance evaluation procedures; selection of days; and other details 
for calculating RRFs. Appendix V of the 2016 AQMP provides the 
coordinates of the modeling domain and thoroughly describes the 
development of the modeling emissions inventory, including its chemical 
speciation, its spatial and temporal allocation, its temperature 
dependence, and quality assurance procedures.
    The modeling analysis used version 5.0.2 of the Community 
Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical model, developed by the 
EPA. To prepare meteorological input for CMAQ, the Weather and Research 
Forecasting model version 3.6 (WRF) from the National Center for 
Atmospheric Research was used. CMAQ and WRF are both recognized in the 
Modeling Guidance as technically sound, state-of-the-art models. The 
areal extent and the horizontal and vertical resolution used in these 
models were adequate for modeling South Coast ozone.
    The WRF meteorological model results and performance statistics are 
described in Chapter 3 (``Meteorological Modeling and Sensitivity 
Analyses'') of Appendix V. The District evaluated the performance of 
the WRF model through a series of simulations and concluded that the 
daily WRF simulation for 2012 provided representative meteorological 
fields that well characterized the observed conditions. The District's 
conclusions were supported by hourly time series graphs of wind speed, 
direction, and temperature for the South Coast included as Attachment 1 
(``WRF Model Performance Time Series'') to Appendix V.
    Ozone model performance statistics are described in the 2016 AQMP 
Appendix V, Chapter 5 (``8-Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstration'') and 
Chapter 8 (``1-Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstration''), which include 
tables of statistics recommended in the Modeling Guidance for 8-hour 
and 1-hour daily maximum ozone for the South Coast sub-regions 
(including the coastal, San Fernando, foothills, urban source, urban 
receptor, and Coachella Valley zones). Hourly time series are presented 
as well as density scatter plots, and plots of bias against 
concentration. Note that, because only relative changes are used from 
the modeling, the underprediction of absolute ozone concentrations does 
not mean that future concentrations will be underestimated.
    After model performance for the 2012 base case was accepted, the 
model was applied to develop RRFs for the attainment demonstration. 
This entailed running the model with the same meteorological inputs as 
before, but with adjusted emissions inventories to reflect the expected 
changes between 2012 and the 2022, 2023, and 2031 attainment years. The 
base year or ``reference year'' modeling inventory was the same as the 
inventory for the modeling base case. The 2022, 2023, and 2031 
inventory projects the base year into the future by including the 
effect of economic growth and emissions control measures. The set of 
153 days from May 1 through September 30, 2012 was simulated and 
analyzed to determine daily 1-hour average and 8-hour average maximum 
ozone concentrations for the 2012, 2022, 2023, and 2031 emissions 
inventories. To develop the RRFs for the two 8-hour ozone NAAQS, only 
the top 10 days were used, consistent with EPA guidance; for the 1-hour 
ozone NAAQS, only the top 3 days were used.
    The Modeling Guidance addresses attainment demonstrations with 
ozone NAAQS based on 8-hour averages but does not address attainment 
demonstrations for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS. For the 1997 and 2008 ozone 
NAAQS, the 2016 AQMP carried out the attainment test procedure 
consistent with the Modeling Guidance. For the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, the 
District adapted the procedures from the Modeling Guidance with certain 
modifications intended to address the differences between the form of 
the 1-hour ozone NAAQS (i.e., expected number of exceedances of the 1-
hour ozone NAAQS) and the form of the 8-hour ozone standards (fourth 
highest daily maximum 8-hour average). The RRFs were calculated as the 
ratio of future to base year concentrations. The resulting RRFs were 
then applied to 2012 weighted base year design values \86\ for each 
monitor to arrive at 2022, 2023, and 2031 future year design 
values.\87\ The highest 2022 ozone design value is 0.123 ppm at the 
Fontana site; this value demonstrates attainment of the 1-hour ozone 
NAAQS of 0.12 ppm. For the 1997 ozone NAAQS, the 2023 ozone design 
value is 0.084 ppm also at the Fontana site; this value demonstrates 
attainment with the corresponding 1997 ozone NAAQS of 0.085 ppm. The 
highest 2031 ozone design value is 0.075 ppm also at the Fontana site; 
this value demonstrates attainment of the corresponding 2008 ozone 
NAAQS of 0.075 ppm.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \86\ The Modeling Guidance recommends that RRFs be applied to 
the average of three three-year design values centered on the base 
year, in this case the design values for 2010-2012, 2011-2013, and 
2012-2014. This amounts to a 5-year weighted average of individual 
year 4th high concentrations, centered on the base year of 2012, and 
so is referred to as a weighted design value.
    \87\ 2016 AQMP, Table 5-2; 1-Hour Ozone Update, Table 4.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The 2016 AQMP modeling includes a weight of evidence demonstration, 
based on a model performance evaluation of the temporal profile of on-
road mobile source emissions and spatial surrogate profiles of area 
emissions.\88\ The 1-Hour Ozone Update includes a weight of evidence 
demonstration for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS.\89\ The demonstration is 
based on a sensitivity analysis of four scenarios of emission 
reductions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \88\ Appendix V of 2016 AQMP, pages V-5-36--V-5-41.
    \89\ 1-Hour Ozone Update, 12.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Finally, the 2016 AQMP includes an ``Unmonitored Area Analysis'' 
for the 8-hour ozone NAAQS to assess the attainment status of locations 
other than monitoring sites.\90\ The Modeling Guidance describes a 
``gradient adjusted spatial fields'' procedure along with the EPA 
software (i.e., Modeled Attainment Test Software) used to carry it 
out.\91\ The 2016 AQMP and 1-Hour Ozone Update show concentrations 
below the NAAQS for all locations.\92\ This analysis adds assurance to 
the attainment demonstrations that all locations in the

[[Page 28145]]

South Coast will attain the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by 2022, the 1997 ozone 
NAAQS by 2023, and the 2008 ozone NAAQS by 2031.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \90\ Appendix V of 2016 AQMP, pages V-5-28--V-5-35.
    \91\ Modeling Guidance, section 4.7.
    \92\ 2016 Ozone Plan, Figure 5-7, and 1-Hour Ozone Update, 
Figure 3.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

b. Control Strategy for Attainment
    The control strategy for attainment of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, the 
1997 ozone NAAQS, and the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the 2016 South Coast 
Ozone SIP relies on emissions reductions from already-adopted measures, 
commitments by the District to certain regulatory and nonregulatory 
initiatives and aggregate emission reductions, and commitments by CARB 
to certain regulatory and nonregulatory initiatives and aggregate 
emission reductions. Generally, the bulk of the emissions reductions on 
which the control strategies rely is expected to come from already-
adopted measures, which are discussed in section III.C of this 
document. For the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, 1997 ozone NAAQS, and the 2008 
ozone NAAQS, already-adopted measures are expected to achieve 
approximately 92 percent, 66 percent, and 67 percent of the reductions 
needed, respectively, from the 2012 base year to attain the NAAQS in 
2022 (1-hour ozone NAAQS), 2023 (1997 ozone NAAQS) and 2031 (2008 ozone 
NAAQS). However, because already-adopted measures will not provide for 
attainment of the ozone NAAQS, the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP includes 
District and CARB commitments to achieve additional emissions 
reductions. These commitments are discussed and evaluated in the 
paragraphs that follow.
i. District's Aggregate Emission Reduction Commitments
    The District has primary responsibility in the South Coast for the 
regulation of stationary and certain types of area sources. The 
District has more limited authority with respect to mobile sources but 
is authorized to implement various programs, such as incentive 
programs, to reduce emissions from such sources as well. The District 
has made various commitments in previous plans as part of the 
attainment strategies to achieve the 1-hour ozone NAAQS and the 1997 
ozone NAAQS.
    Through adoption of the 2016 AQMP, the District is updating its 
previously-approved aggregate emissions reduction commitments made as 
part of the attainment demonstrations for the 1997 ozone NAAQS (by 
2023) in the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP and for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS 
(by 2022) in the 2012 AQMP; the District is also adopting aggregate 
emissions reduction commitments for the attainment demonstration for 
the 2008 ozone NAAQS. The District's commitments in the 2016 AQMP are 
similar in concept to those that were made in connection with the 
previously approved plans.
    More specifically, through adoption of the 2016 AQMP, the District 
has committed to develop, adopt, submit, and implement the ozone 
measures listed in tables 4-2 (stationary source ozone measures) and 4-
4 (mobile source ozone measures) in Chapter 4 of the 2016 AQMP to meet 
or exceed the emissions reduction commitments in tables 4-9 (1-hour 
ozone NAAQS), 4-10 (1997 ozone NAAQS) and 4-11 (2008 ozone NAAQS).\93\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \93\ SCAQMD, Resolution 17-2 (March 3, 2017), 9.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In Table 2 below, we show the District's updated aggregate 
emissions reduction commitments from the 2016 AQMP with the 
corresponding commitments from the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP and the 
2012 AQMP. The District's commitments from the 2016 AQMP are, in 
concept, the same as the District's commitments that the EPA has 
approved as part of the attainment demonstrations in the 2007 South 
Coast Ozone SIP and the 2012 AQMP. In short, the District has committed 
to develop, adopt, submit and implement the specific measures listed in 
tables 4-2 and 4-4 of the 2016 AQMP on the adoption and implementation 
schedule set forth in those tables to meet or exceed the aggregate 
emissions reductions commitments. However, as with the earlier plans, 
the 2016 AQMP provides for a public process through which the District 
may substitute measures in tables 4-2 and 4-4 with other measures, 
provided that the overall equivalent emissions reductions by the 
adoption and implementation dates are maintained and that the 
applicable measure in table 4-2 or 4-4 is deemed by the District to be 
infeasible.\94\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \94\ 2016 AQMP, pages 4-52--4-55.

                                               Table 2--District Aggregate Emission Reduction Commitments
                                                            [Summer planning inventory, tpd]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                     Year 2022                       Year 2023                       Year 2031
                          Plan                           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                NOX             VOC             NOX             VOC             NOX             VOC
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2007 South Coast Ozone SIP \a\..........................              --              --             9.2            19.3              --              --
2012 AQMP \b\...........................................            10.7             5.8            11.0             6.0              --              --
2016 AQMP \c\...........................................            20.6             6.1            23.0             6.4            31.0             9.6
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ 2007 AQMP, Table 4-2A, as revised by Appendix F of the 2011 Progress Report--see 77 FR 12674, 12691 (March 1, 2012). Reductions are from the 2002
  base year. The double-dash mark (``--'') indicates that no commitment was made for a given year in a given plan.
\b\ SCAQMD, Resolution 12-19 (December 7, 2012), 7-8; Table 4-11 of the 2012 AQMP; and 79 FR 29712, 29720 (May 23, 2014). Reductions are from the 2008
  base year. The double-dash mark (``--'') indicates that no commitment was made for a given year in a given plan.
\c\ 2016 AQMP, tables 4-9, 4-10 and 4-11. Reductions are from the 2012 base year.

    As noted above, the District expects to meet its emissions 
reduction commitments for NOX and VOC by adopting new 
control measures and programs and strengthening existing control 
measures, as identified in tables 4-2 and 4-4 of the 2016 AQMP. These 
new or revised stationary control measures include stationary source 
regulatory measures, measures that recognize emissions reductions from 
energy and climate change-related programs, voluntary incentive 
measures, and other miscellaneous measures. In Table 3 below, we have 
combined the District's new stationary and mobile measures listed in 
tables 4-2 and 4-4 of the 2016 AQMP into a single table but only list 
those measures for which the District provides estimates of associated 
emissions reductions. The emissions reductions for individual measures 
shown in Table 3 are not intended to be enforceable but are estimates 
prepared by the District to show how the District expects at the 
present time to achieve the aggregate emissions reductions for 2022, 
2023, and 2031. The enforceable components of the District's 
commitments are to effectuate the

[[Page 28146]]

measures to which it has committed on the schedule that it has adopted, 
and to achieve the aggregate emissions reductions by the given years.

                                                 Table 3--District Stationary and Mobile Source Measures
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                     NOX emission reductions    VOC emission reductions
                                                                                                              (tpd)                      (tpd)
                 Number                          Title           Adoption   Implementation period  -----------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                      2022     2023     2031     2022     2023     2031
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CMB-01.................................  Transition to Zero          2018  Ongoing................  \a\ 2.2      2.5      6.0  \a\ 1.0  \c\ 1.2  \c\ 2.8
                                          and Near-Zero
                                          Emission
                                          Technologies for
                                          Stationary Sources.
CMB-02.................................  Emission Reductions         2018  2020-2031..............      1.1      1.1      2.8  .......  .......  .......
                                          from Replacement
                                          with Zero or Near-
                                          Zero NOX Appliances
                                          in Commercial and
                                          Residential
                                          Applications.
CMB-03.................................  Emission Reductions         2018  2020...................      1.4      1.4      1.5      0.4  \c\ 0.4  \c\ 0.4
                                          from Non-Refinery
                                          Flares.
CMB-04.................................  Emission Reductions         2018  2022...................      0.8      0.8      1.6  .......  .......  .......
                                          from Restaurant
                                          Burners and
                                          Residential Cooking.
CMB-05.................................  Further NOX                 2022  2025...................  .......        0  \b\ 5.0  .......  .......  .......
                                          Reductions from
                                          RECLAIM Assessment.
BCM-10.................................  Emission Reductions         2019  2020...................  .......  .......  .......      1.5      1.5      1.8
                                          from Greenwaste
                                          Composting.
FUG-01.................................  Improved Leak               2019  2022...................  .......  .......  .......      2.0      2.0      2.0
                                          Detection and Repair.
CTS-01.................................  Further Emission       2017/2021  2020-2031..............  .......  .......  .......      1.0      1.0      2.0
                                          Reductions from
                                          Coatings, Solvents,
                                          Adhesives, and
                                          Sealants.
ECC-02.................................  Co-Benefits from            2018  Ongoing................  \a\ 0.3      0.3      1.1  a c 0.1  \c\ 0.1  \c\ 0.3
                                          Existing Residential
                                          and Commercial
                                          Building Energy
                                          Efficiency Measures.
ECC-03.................................  Additional                  2018  Ongoing................  \a\ 1.0      1.2      2.1  a c 0.2  \c\ 0.2  \c\ 0.3
                                          Enhancements in
                                          Reducing Existing
                                          Residential Building
                                          Energy Use.
                                                                                                   -----------------------------------------------------
    Stationary Sources Totals..........  .....................  .........  .......................      6.7      7.3     20.1      6.1      6.4      9.6
MOB-10.................................  Extension of the SOON         NA  Ongoing................      1.9      1.9      1.9  .......  .......  .......
                                          \d\ Provision for
                                          Construction/
                                          Industrial Equipment.
MOB-11.................................  Extended Exchange             NA  Ongoing................  \a\ 2.5      2.9      1.0  .......  .......  .......
                                          Program.
MOB-14.................................  Emission Reductions           NA  2016-2024..............  \a\ 9.5       11      7.8  .......  .......  .......
                                          from Incentive
                                          Programs.
                                                                                                   -----------------------------------------------------
    Mobile Sources Totals..............  .....................  .........  .......................     13.9     15.8     10.7  .......  .......  .......
                                                                                                   -----------------------------------------------------
        Stationary and Mobile Sources    .....................  .........  .......................     20.6     23.1     30.8      6.1      6.4      9.6
         Totals.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ 86 percent of 2023 reductions planned for the control measures.
\b\ 5 tpd reduction by 2025.
\c\ Corresponding VOC reductions from other measures.
\d\ Surplus Off-Road Opt-In for NOX Program.
The sum of the emissions values may not equal the total shown due to rounding of the numbers.
Source: 2016 AQMP, tables 4-2, 4-4, 4-9, 4-10 and 4-11.

    There are several ``Further Deployment of Cleaner Technologies'' 
measures (also referred to in today's action as ``new technology'' 
measures) in the 2016 State Strategy that identify the SCAQMD as an 
implementing agency, along with CARB and the EPA. CARB indicated that 
the implementation of the new technology measures is based on a 
combination of incentive funding, development of regulations, and 
quantification of emissions reduction benefits from operational 
efficiency actions and deployment of autonomous vehicles, connected 
vehicles, and intelligent transportation systems. The District has 
proposed numerous mobile source measures to further the implementation 
of CARB's new technology measures. These include proposals to continue 
several existing incentive programs (e.g., the Carl Moyer Memorial Air 
Quality Standards Attainment Program, the Surplus Off-Road Opt-In for 
NOX Program, and Proposition 1B--Goods Movement Emissions 
Reduction Program). In the 2016 AQMP, the District includes 15 mobile 
source measures to reduce VOC and NOX emissions. With the 
exception of measures MOB-10, 11, and 14, the District has not yet 
quantified or assigned future reductions to their mobile source 
measures.\95\ Other proposed District stationary and mobile sources 
measures \96\ with future reductions not yet quantified include the 
following.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \95\ 2016 AQMP, Table 4-4.
    \96\ All measures to be implemented by SCAQMD except: ECC-01 
(various agencies); FLX-01 (SCAQMD and other parties); MOB-5, MOB-7, 
MOB-8, and MOB-9 (SCAQMD and CARB); MOB-6 (CARB, Bureau of 
Automotive Repair (BAR), SCAQMD), and MOB-12 (SoCal Regional Rail 
Authority).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

     Stationary source measures: ECC-01, Co-Benefit Emission 
Reductions from Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Programs, Policies, and 
Incentives; FLX-01, Improved Education and Public Outreach; FLX-02, 
Stationary Source VOC Incentives; MCS-01, Improved Breakdown Procedures 
and Process Re-Design; MCS-02, Application of All Feasible Measures; 
and ECC-04, Reduced Ozone Formation and Emission Reductions from Cool 
Roof Technology.
     Mobiles source measures: EGM-01, Emission Reductions from 
New Development and Redevelopment Projects; MOB-01, Emission Reductions 
at Commercial Marine Ports; MOB-02, Emission Reductions at Rail Yards 
and Intermodal Facilities; MOB-03, Emission Reductions at Warehouse

[[Page 28147]]

Distribution Centers; MOB-04, Emission Reductions at Commercial 
Airports; MOB-05, Penetration of Partial Zero-Emission and Zero-
Emission Vehicles; MOB-06, Accelerated Retirement of Older Light-Duty 
and Medium-Duty Vehicles; MOB-07, Accelerated Penetration of Partial 
Zero-Emission and Zero-Emission Light-Heavy- and Medium-Heavy-Duty 
Vehicles; MOB-08, Accelerated Retirement of Older On-Road Heavy-Duty 
Vehicles; MOB-09, On-Road Mobile Source Emission Reduction Credit 
Generation Program; MOB-12, Further Emission Reductions from Passenger 
Locomotives; and MOB-13, Off-Road Mobile Source Emission Reduction 
Credit Generation Program.
ii. CARB Aggregate Emissions Reduction Commitments
    Source categories for which CARB has primary responsibility for 
reducing emissions in California include most new and existing on- and 
off-road engines and vehicles, motor vehicle fuels, and consumer 
products. CARB's 2016 State Strategy includes a comprehensive set of 
measures to achieve emissions reductions needed in the South Coast from 
mobile sources and consumer products. The measures in the 2016 State 
Strategy identify the regulatory and programmatic approaches necessary 
to deploy cleaner technologies and ensure sufficient penetration to 
meet the NAAQS deadlines. The measures in the 2016 State Strategy 
include technology-forcing engine standards, cleaner burning fuels, 
durability requirements and inspection programs to ensure clean in-use 
performance, sales requirements for advanced technologies, pilot 
programs to identify and advance new technologies, and incentive 
programs to accelerate technology deployment.
    To be more specific, the 2016 State Strategy includes actions to 
increase the penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and zero-
emission vehicles (ZEVs) in the light-duty vehicle sector. For heavy-
duty vehicles, the 2016 State Strategy includes combustion engine 
technology that is effectively 90 percent cleaner than current 
standards. The 2016 State Strategy also includes targeted introduction 
of zero-emission technologies in heavy-duty applications that are 
suited to early adoption of ZEV technologies. The 2016 State Strategy 
includes a California action to establish new low-NOX 
certification requirements, coupled with in-use performance 
requirements. The strategy also provides greater certification 
flexibility for advanced technologies. The measures could reduce 
emissions from today's heavy-duty trucks by up to 90 percent. Because 
trucks licensed outside of California account for a large portion of 
truck activity in California, the 2016 State Strategy calls for the EPA 
to develop a national low-NOX engine standard and cites 
formal petitions for such rulemaking that have been submitted by 
several California air districts. In response to the petitions, on 
November 13, 2018, the EPA announced the Cleaner Trucks Initiative, a 
future rulemaking to update NOX standards for highway heavy-
duty trucks and engines.\97\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \97\ See https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/cleaner-truck-initiative.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The 2016 State Strategy includes similar proposed actions for off-
road sources, with a focus on deployment of ZEV technologies in smaller 
equipment types such as forklifts and airport ground support equipment. 
A low-emission diesel standard builds upon CARB's existing fuels 
framework by requiring that low-emission diesel fuels to be used to 
achieve greater criteria pollutant reductions. For sources that are 
primarily under federal jurisdiction, such as interstate trucks, 
locomotives, and ocean-going vessels, the 2016 State Strategy calls for 
EPA action to provide the needed emission reductions from these sources 
by setting more stringent engine standards. Lastly, the 2016 State 
Strategy contains a measure to address VOC emissions from consumer 
products, the largest source category of VOCs in California. Chapter 4 
(``State SIP Measures'') of the 2016 State Strategy provides a detailed 
description of the various measures included in the 2016 State 
Strategy, background and regulatory history for the measures, a 
description of the specific proposed actions to be taken and timing for 
those actions, an estimate of the related emissions reductions, and the 
specific SIP commitment by CARB with respect to each of the measures.
    Through adoption of the 2016 State Strategy, CARB is updating its 
previously-approved aggregate emissions reduction commitments made as 
part of the attainment demonstration for the 1997 ozone NAAQS (by 2023) 
in the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP, and CARB is adopting aggregate 
emissions reduction commitments for the attainment demonstration for 
the 2008 ozone NAAQS. CARB's commitments in the 2016 State Strategy are 
similar in concept to those that were made in connection with the 
previously approved plan.
    More specifically, through adoption of the 2016 State Strategy, 
CARB has committed to bring to its Board for consideration the list of 
measures contained in Attachment A to CARB Resolution 17-7 according to 
the schedule set forth in Attachment A, and to achieve aggregate 
emissions reductions of 113 tpd of NOX and 50 to 51 tpd of 
VOC by 2023, and 111 tpd of NOX and 59 to 60 tpd of VOC by 
2031 in the South Coast.\98\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \98\ CARB, Resolution 17-7 (March 23, 2017), 7.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In Table 4, below, we show CARB's updated aggregate emissions 
reduction commitments from the 2016 State Strategy with the 
corresponding commitments from the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP for the 
1997 ozone NAAQS and from the 2012 AQMP for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS. 
CARB's commitments from the 2016 State Strategy are, in concept, 
similar to CARB's commitments that the EPA has approved as part of the 
attainment demonstrations in the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP and 2012 
AQMP. As with the earlier plans, the 2016 State Strategy includes 
estimates of the emissions reductions from each of the individual new 
measures, but CARB's overall commitment is to achieve the total 
emission reductions necessary to attain the NAAQS.

                                                 Table 4--CARB Aggregate Emission Reduction Commitments
                                                            [Summer planning inventory, tpd]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                     Year 2022                       Year 2023                       Year 2031
                          Plan                           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                NOX             VOC             NOX             VOC             NOX             VOC
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2007 South Coast Ozone SIP \a\:
    Defined Measures....................................              --              --             141              54              --              --
    New Technology Measures.............................              --              --             241              40              --              --

[[Page 28148]]

 
2012 AQMP \b\:
    Defined Measures....................................              --              --              --              --              --              --
    New Technology Measures.............................             150              17              --              --              --              --
2016 South Coast Ozone SIP \c\:
    Defined and New Technology Measures.................               0               0             113           50-51             111           59-60
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ 2009 State Strategy Update, 20; also see 76 FR 57872, 57882 (September 16, 2011). Reductions are from the 2002 base year. The double-dash mark (``--
  '') indicates that no commitment was made for a given year in a given plan.
\b\ 2012 AQMP, appendix VII, page VII-46; CARB Resolution 13-3 (January 25, 2013); and letter from Richard W. Cory, Executive Officer, CARB, to Jared
  Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX, dated May 2, 2014. Reductions are from the 2008 base year. The double-dash mark (``--'') indicates
  that no commitment was made for a given year in a given plan.
\c\ 2016 State Strategy, Table 4, and CARB Resolution 17-7 (March 23, 2017). Reductions are from the 2012 base year.

    For previous South Coast ozone plans, CARB's aggregate emissions 
reduction commitments distinguished between those that were to be 
achieved through adoption and implementation of defined measures and 
those that were to be achieved through ``new technology'' measures. In 
this case, ``new technology'' measures refer to provisions in an ozone 
plan for an Extreme area that anticipate development of new control 
techniques or improvement of existing control technologies as provided 
for in CAA section 182(e)(5). For the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP, 
CARB's aggregate emissions reduction commitments include both types of 
measures. However, CARB also identifies new technology measures for 
which it is requesting approval by the EPA under CAA section 182(e)(5). 
Table 5 below divides CARB's estimates of emissions reductions between 
new technology measures (i.e., those identified for approval under CAA 
section 182(e)(5) by CARB) and the other measures (which we refer to as 
``defined measures.'')

                     Table 5--Estimates of Emissions Reductions From Defined and New Technology Measures in the 2016 State Strategy
                                             [Summer planning inventory, tpd, from 2012 base year emissions]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                     VOC                                                               NOX
                     -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Year                                   New technology                                                    New technology
                        Defined measures          measures                Total           Defined measures          measures                Total
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              2023                  9-10                    41                 50-51                     5                   108                   113
              2031                 21-22                    37                 59-60                    14                    97                   111
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sources: 2016 State Strategy, Table 4. Tonnage values for defined measures determined by subtracting all the new technology measures from the total
  emission reduction estimate. The sum of the emissions values may not equal the total shown due to rounding of the numbers.

    Table 6 below lists CARB's defined measures and associated 
reductions from the 2016 State Strategy. As shown in Table 6, CARB 
estimates that the defined measures would reduce emissions of 
NOX and VOC by 5 tpd and 9-10 tpd, respectively, by 2023 and 
by 14 tpd and 21-22 tpd, respectively, by 2031. Table 6 includes only 
those CARB defined measures for which CARB has developed emissions 
estimates.\99\ We note that the emissions estimates shown in Table 6 
are only estimates and are not binding on CARB under the terms of the 
commitments CARB has made for the South Coast as part of the 2016 State 
Strategy. Rather, CARB has committed to take certain regulatory and 
nonregulatory actions according to the schedule in the 2016 State 
Strategy and to achieve aggregate emissions reductions by 2023 and 
2031. The reductions from any one measure in Table 6 could be more or 
less than the estimates shown.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \99\ The defined measures in the 2016 State Strategy for which 
future reductions are not yet quantified include: Lower In-Use 
Emission Performance Assessment for on-road light-duty vehicles 
(CARB and the California Bureau of Automotive Repair); Medium and 
Heavy-Duty GHG Gas Phase 2 (CARB, EPA), Innovative Technology 
Certification Flexibility (CARB), and Zero-Emission Airport Shuttle 
Buses (CARB) for on-road heavy-duty vehicles; Incentivize Low 
Emission Efficient Ship Visits for ocean-going vessels (CARB); Zero-
Emission Off-Road Emission Reduction Assessment (CARB), Zero-
Emission Off-Road Worksite Emission Reduction Assessment (CARB), and 
Transport Refrigeration Units Used for Cold Storage for off-road 
equipment (CARB).

                                                  Table 6--Defined Measures in the 2016 State Strategy
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                   Implementation                 NOX emission          VOC emission
                                                                      ---------------------------------------   reductions (tpd)      reductions (tpd)
                 Measure                            Adoption              Time                               -------------------------------------------
                                                                         frame              Agency               2023       2031       2023       2031
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On-Road Light-Duty:
    Advanced Clean Cars 2...............  2020-2021..................       2026  CARB......................          -        0.6          -        0.4

[[Page 28149]]

 
On-Road Heavy-Duty:
    Lower In-Use Emission Performance     2017-2020..................      2018+  CARB......................        NYQ        NYQ       <0.1       <0.1
     Level.
    Low-NOX Engine Standard--California   2019.......................       2023  CARB......................          -          5          -          -
     Action.
    Innovative Clean Transit............  2017.......................       2018  CARB......................       <0.1        0.1       <0.1       <0.1
    Last Mile Delivery..................  2018.......................       2020  CARB......................       <0.1        0.4       <0.1       <0.1
    Incentive Funding to Achieve Further  ongoing....................       2016  CARB, SCAQMD..............          3          3        0.4        0.4
     Emission Reductions from On-Road
     Heavy Duty Vehicles \a\.
Ocean-Going Vessels:
    At-Berth Regulation Amendments......  2017-2018..................       2023  CARB......................        0.3          1       <0.1       <0.1
Off-Road Equipment:
    Zero-Emission Off-Road Forklift       2020.......................       2023  CARB......................          -          1          -        0.1
     Regulation Phase 1.
    Zero-Emission Airport Ground Support  2018.......................       2023  CARB......................       <0.1       <0.1       <0.1       <0.1
     Equipment.
    Small Off-Road Engines..............  2018-2020..................       2022  CARB......................        0.7          2          7         16
    Low-Emission Diesel Requirement.....  by 2020....................       2023  CARB......................        0.3          1        NYQ        NYQ
Consumer Products:
    Consumer Products Program...........  2019-2021..................     2020 +  CARB......................          0          0        1-2        4-5
                                         ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Total Emission Reductions.......  4..........................         14  9-10......................      21-22
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ On March 22, 2018, CARB adopted the ``South Coast On-Road Heavy-Duty Vehicle Incentive Measure.'' On April 25, 2019, the EPA proposed to approve the
  measure as achieving 1 tpd of NOX reductions in 2023. See 84 FR 17365.
NYQ means not yet quantified. A dash (-) refers to de minimis reductions.
The sum of the emissions values may not equal the total shown due to rounding of the numbers.
Source: 2016 State Strategy, Table 4; Attachment A to CARB Resolution 17-7 (March 23, 2017).

    As noted above, the 2016 State Strategy identifies certain new 
technology measures for which CARB is requesting approval by the EPA 
under the provisions of section 182(e)(5) of the CAA. The 2016 AQMP 
does not rely on the new technology measures in the 2016 State Strategy 
to demonstrate RFP, but it does rely on them for attainment of the 1997 
and 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast by the applicable attainment 
dates.
    Table 7 below lists CARB's new technology measures and associated 
reductions from the 2016 State Strategy. As shown in Table 7, CARB 
estimates that the new technology measures would reduce emissions of 
NOX and VOC by 108 tpd and 41 tpd by 2023, and 97 tpd and 37 
tpd by 2031, respectively. As noted above in connection with CARB's 
defined measures, the emissions estimates shown in Table 7 are only 
estimates and are not binding on CARB under the terms of the 
commitments CARB has made for the South Coast as part of the 2016 State 
Strategy. Rather, CARB has committed to take certain regulatory and 
nonregulatory actions according to the schedule in the 2016 State 
Strategy and to achieve aggregate emissions reductions by 2023 and 
2031. CARB's aggregate emissions reduction commitments for years 2023 
and 2031 do not distinguish between the defined measures and the new 
technology measures. The new technology measures in the 2016 State 
Strategy are accompanied by an enforceable commitment by CARB to 
develop, adopt and submit contingency measures by 2028 for the 2008 
ozone NAAQS if the new technology measures do not achieve planned 
reductions, as required under CAA section 182(e)(5).\100\ CARB's 
commitment to submit contingency measures for section 182(e)(5) 
purposes thus relates to attainment for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. With 
respect to attainment for the 1997 ozone NAAQS, CARB is relying on the 
previously-submitted and approved commitment to submit contingency 
measures for section 182(e)(5) purposes from the 2007 South Coast Ozone 
SIP.\101\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \100\ CARB Resolution 17-8, 9.
    \101\ See 76 FR 57872, 57882 (September 16, 2011) referencing 
CARB Resolution 11-22, July 21, 2011), and in a letter dated 
November 18, 2011, from James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB, 
to Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX.

                                               Table 7--New Technology Measures in 2016 State Strategy \a\
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                   Implementation                 NOX emission          VOC emission
                                                                      ---------------------------------------   reductions (tpd)      reductions (tpd)
                  Title                             Adoption              Time                               -------------------------------------------
                                                                         frame              Agency               2023       2031       2023       2031
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On-Road Light-Duty:
    Further Deployment of Cleaner         ongoing....................       2016  CARB, SCAQMD, EPA.........          7          5         16         16
     Technologies \b\.
On-Road Heavy-Duty:
    Low-NOX Engine Standard--Federal      2019.......................       2024  EPA.......................          -          7          -          -
     Action.
    Further Deployment of Cleaner         ongoing....................       2016  CARB, SCAQMD, EPA.........         34         11          4          1
     Technologies.
Aircraft:
    Further Deployment of Cleaner         ongoing....................       2016  CARB, SCAQMD, EPA.........          9         13        NYQ        NYQ
     Technologies.
Locomotives:
    More Stringent National Locomotive    2017.......................       2023  EPA.......................      < 0.1          2      < 0.1      < 0.1
     Emission Standards.
    Further Deployment of Cleaner         ongoing....................       2016  CARB, SCAQMD, EPA.........          7          3        0.3        0.3
     Technologies.
Ocean-Going Vessels:
    Tier 4 Vessel Standards.............  2016-2018..................       2025  CARB, IMO.................          -        NYQ          -        NYQ

[[Page 28150]]

 
    Further Deployment of Cleaner         ongoing....................       2016  CARB, SCAQMD, EPA.........         30         38        NYQ        NYQ
     Technologies.
Off-Road Equipment:
    Further Deployment of Cleaner         ongoing....................       2016  CARB, SCAQMD, EPA.........         21         18         21         20
     Technologies.
                                                                                                             -------------------------------------------
        Total Emission Reductions.......  -..........................          -  -.........................        108         97         41         37
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ CARB requested the EPA approve these measures under the provisions of section 182(e)(5) of the CAA.
\b\ In today's action we also refer to these as new technology measures.
NYQ means not yet quantified. A dash (-) refers to de minimis reductions.
The sum of the emissions values may not equal the total shown due to rounding of the numbers.
Source: 2016 State Strategy, Table 4; Attachment A to CARB Resolution 17-7 (March 23, 2017).

    In its 2016 State Strategy, CARB commits to achieving the aggregate 
emissions reductions needed in the South Coast for attaining the 1997 
and 2008 ozone NAAQS from the defined and new technology measures. Even 
though the District does not have a new technology emissions reduction 
commitment in the 2016 AQMP, its numerous incentive programs in tables 
4-2 and 4-4 of the 2016 AQMP will help advance new control technologies 
that will achieve long-term reductions and ultimately reduce CARB's 
remaining commitment for reductions in 2023 and 2031.
    SCAQMD's Technology Advancement Office (TAO) is responsible for 
expediting the development, demonstration and commercialization of 
cleaner technologies and clean-burning fuels in the South Coast. TAO's 
mobile source projects have included development and demonstration of 
less-polluting automobiles, buses, trucks, construction equipment, 
boats, locomotives and other off-road vehicles involving advancements 
in engine design, improved batteries, fuel cells, and improved 
powertrains for electric vehicles. Other projects involve adapting or 
designing vehicles to run on clean fuels and developing the 
infrastructure needed to produce and deliver those fuels.\102\ TAO's 
projects for stationary sources have included a wide array of low-
NOX combustion systems, low-VOC coatings and processes, and 
clean energy production systems including fuel cells, solar power, and 
other renewable energy systems.\103\ The technical areas currently 
identified by TAO as the highest priority include fuel cells for 
transportation and power generation; diesel alternatives; electric and 
hybrid-electric technologies; off-road applications of alternative fuel 
technologies; VOC reduction technologies for stationary sources; and 
infrastructure development.\104\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \102\ SCAQMD technology advancement web page at http://yourstory.aqmd.gov/home/technology, February 6, 2019.
    \103\ Id.
    \104\ Id.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In its 2016 State Strategy, CARB builds on and updates the new 
technology measures in prior state strategies (e.g., the 2007 State 
Strategy as revised in 2009 and 2011). To implement the long-term 
strategy, CARB has committed to a process that will help ensure that 
the long-term measures are adopted and that reductions are achieved by 
the beginning of the last full ozone season before the attainment date. 
CARB is coordinating a government, private, and public effort to 
establish emission goals for critical mobile and stationary emission 
source categories. The effort includes periodic assessment of 
technology advancement opportunities and updates to its Board and the 
public regarding new emission control opportunities and progress in 
achieving the long-term measure reductions. CARB's commitment for 
implementing the long-term strategy also includes reporting back to its 
Board within one year of adoption of the 2016 State Strategy, and 
yearly thereafter.\105\ This report will include:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \105\ 2016 State Strategy, 46.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    1. The status of partnerships with the South Coast, San Joaquin 
Valley, the EPA, other government agencies, and the private sector to 
pursue research, demonstration, and pilot projects for further 
advancement of zero and near-zero emission technologies;
    2. The status of the Financial Incentives Funding Action Plan, 
progress in identifying and implementing funding mechanisms, and status 
of State level incentive programs and allocation of funding to the 
South Coast and San Joaquin Valley regions;
    3. The status of technology assessments, emerging technologies and 
emissions reduction opportunities. CARB staff will also report on 
implementation of actions identified by the SCAQMD and San Joaquin 
Valley Air Pollution Control District as well as actions contained in 
the California Sustainable Freight Action Plan, the 2030 Target Scoping 
Plan Update, SB 375, and other complementary efforts and the criteria 
pollutant benefits that result from these actions; and
    4. Recommendations on the development of further regulatory 
measures and schedules for development for inclusion in the SIP.\106\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \106\ E.g., On March 22, 2018, CARB staff conducted a public 
meeting to brief the Board on substantial progress made in 
implementing various elements of the 2016 State Strategy and 2016 
AQMP. The staff presentation can be viewed at https://www.arb.ca.gov/board/books/2018/032218/18-2-5pres.pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Approximately 70 percent of the reductions needed to meet the ozone 
standard in the South Coast in 2031 comes from existing or proposed 
regulatory actions. This includes ongoing implementation of the 
existing control program, combined with new regulatory measures 
identified in the 2016 State Strategy. The regulatory approach forms 
the core of the strategy. The remaining 30 percent of reductions is 
from additional efforts to enhance the deployment of cleaner 
technologies through new incentive or new regulatory actions. These 
actions will be implemented through the cleaner technologies measures 
for each mobile sector to provide further emissions reductions from the 
deployment of technologies necessary to meet the South Coast's Extreme 
ozone nonattainment area needs. The approaches contained in the cleaner 
technology measures include:
     Incentive programs to further accelerate technology 
penetration;
     Identification of additional regulatory approaches based 
on further technology assessments;
     Increased efficiency in moving people and freight;

[[Page 28151]]

     Use of emerging transportation technologies, such as 
intelligent transportation systems and autonomous and connected 
vehicles; and
     Further federal actions, including support for 
demonstration programs, and supporting policies to achieve reductions 
from sources under federal and international regulatory authority.
    The specific combination of approaches to achieve reductions under 
these cleaner technologies concepts will vary by source sector and the 
timing of needed reductions. Further details regarding the approach for 
each sector and identification of technologies are available in the 
measure descriptions in Chapter 4 (``State SIP Measures'') of the 2016 
State Strategy.
    To achieve the emission reductions from the cleaner technology 
measures included in the 2016 State Strategy, the South Coast is also 
identifying mechanisms under its local authority to achieve emission 
reductions from mobile sources within the region. Given the need for 
emissions reductions, significant investments to support incentive 
programs will be critical to accelerate the penetration of the cleanest 
technologies in the South Coast. CARB staff has been working with 
SCAQMD and the EPA to identify funding strategies and ensure 
appropriate mechanisms are in place for an approvable SIP.
c. Attainment Demonstration
    The 2016 AQMP includes a new attainment demonstration for the 2008 
ozone NAAQS and updated attainment demonstrations for the 1-hour and 
1997 ozone NAAQS. In December 2018, CARB submitted the 1-Hour Ozone 
Update, which revises the 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration in the 
2016 AQMP. Each of the attainment demonstrations includes enforceable 
commitments for additional reductions necessary for attainment as 
discussed in the previous sections. To determine the additional 
NOX reductions needed, the State and District evaluated 
scenarios for a controlled emissions level of NOX necessary 
for attainment of the ozone standards. The ``controlled emissions 
level'' represents, based on modeling scenarios and implementation of 
adequate control measures, the remaining attainment year NOX 
inventory consistent with the modeling used to demonstrate attainment. 
Table 8 below summarizes the controlled emissions level of 
NOX selected by the District and CARB as necessary for 
attainment of the ozone standards.

                          Table 8--NOX Controlled Emissions Level for Ozone Attainment
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Attainment year                     2022                      2023                      2031
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard..........................  1-hour Ozone............  1997 Ozone..............  2008 Ozone.
Controlled Emissions Level (tpd)..  269.....................  141.....................  96.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

i. Updated Attainment Demonstration for the 1-Hour Ozone NAAQS
    The 2016 AQMP updates the EPA-approved 1-hour ozone attainment 
demonstration from the 2012 AQMP to reflect updated emissions 
inventories, photochemical models and modeling techniques. In December 
2018, CARB submitted to the EPA the 1-Hour Ozone Update, which revises 
the 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration in the 2016 AQMP to account 
for updated emissions inventories that were not available at the time 
the 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration was completed for the 2016 
AQMP.
    Table 9 below summarizes the updated attainment demonstration for 
the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by listing the base year (2012) emissions level, 
the modeled attainment emissions level, and the reductions that the 
District has committed to achieve through adoption of the 2016 AQMP. 
The updated 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration does not rely on 
emissions reductions from the 2016 State Strategy. Also, unlike the 
approved 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration from the 2012 AQMP, the 
updated attainment demonstration does not rely on new technology 
measures.
    As shown in Table 9, the majority of emission reductions needed for 
attaining the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by 2022 comes from baseline measures. 
These account for approximately 92 percent of the NOX (233 
tpd) and 95 percent of the VOC (113 tpd) reductions needed for 
attainment of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS. The baseline measures reflect 
CARB rules adopted by November 2015 and District rules adopted by 
December 2015.\107\ Based on the modeling analysis in the 1-Hour Ozone 
Update, the District determined that additional reductions of 21 tpd of 
NOX and 6 tpd of VOC would be sufficient for demonstrating 
attainment of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by 2022. The 2016 South Coast 
Ozone SIP relies on the District's enforceable commitments to achieve 
aggregate emissions reductions through implementation of the measures 
described above in section III.D.2.b.i of this document to provide the 
reductions necessary to achieve the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by 2022.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \107\ See the TSD for this proposed action for a list of 
District rules with post-2012 compliance dates affecting future 
baseline emissions projections. Also see 2016 AQMP, Appendix VI-C, 
Attachment VI-C-1 for a list of CARB rules adopted post-2012.

     Table 9--Summary of 1-Hour Ozone NAAQS Attainment Demonstration
                    [Summer planning inventory, tpd]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                NOX           VOC \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
A. 2012 Base Year Emissions Level \b\...           522.5           499.7
B. 2022 Attainment Year Baseline                   286.8           382.7
 Emissions Level \c\....................
C. Set-Aside (Phase-Out of Toxics,                   3.1             4.5
 General Conformity, SIP Reserve) \c\...
D. 2022 Adjusted Baseline (i.e.,                   289.9           387.2
 includes Set-Aside) (B + C)............
E. 2022 Modeled Attainment Emissions               269.3           381.2
 Level \c\..............................
F. Total Reductions Needed from 2012               253.2           118.5
 Base Year Levels to Demonstrate
 Attainment (A-E).......................
G. Reductions from Baseline (i.e.,                 232.6           112.5
 adopted) Measures, as adjusted to
 account for Set-Aside (A-D)............
H. Reductions from District's Aggregate             21.0             6.1
 Emission Reduction Commitments from
 2016 AQMP \d\..........................
I. Reductions from CARB's Aggregate                    0               0
 Emission Reduction Commitments from
 2016 State Strategy--Defined Measures..

[[Page 28152]]

 
J. Reductions from CARB's Aggregate                    0               0
 Emission Reduction Commitments from
 2016 State Strategy--New Technology
 Measures...............................
K. Total Reductions from District and               21.0             6.1
 CARB Commitments in 2016 AQMP and 2016
 State Strategy (H + I + J).............
L. Total Reductions from Baseline                  253.6           118.6
 Measures plus District and CARB
 Commitments in 2016 AQMP and 2016 State
 Strategy (G + K).......................
M. 2022 Emissions with Reductions from             268.9           381.1
 Control Strategy (A-L).................
                                         -------------------------------
Attainment demonstrated?................                Yes
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes and sources:
\a\ While attainment of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS in the South Coast is
  dependent almost exclusively on NOX reductions, both NOX and VOC
  emissions reductions reduce 1-hour ozone levels.
\b\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix III, Attachment B.
\c\ 1-Hour Ozone Update, 7.
\d\ 2016 AQMP, Table 4-9.

ii. Updated Attainment Demonstration for the 1997 Ozone NAAQS
    In the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy, the District and State 
collectively update the attainment demonstration for the 1997 ozone 
NAAQS. The 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy update the EPA-approved 
1997 ozone NAAQS ozone attainment demonstration from the 2007 South 
Coast Ozone SIP to reflect updated emissions inventories, photochemical 
models and modeling techniques. Table 10 below summarizes the updated 
attainment demonstration for the 1997 ozone NAAQS by listing the base 
year (2012) emissions level, the modeled attainment emissions level, 
and the reductions that the District and CARB have committed to achieve 
through adoption of the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy.
    As shown in Table 10, the majority of emission reductions needed 
for attaining the 1997 ozone NAAQS by 2023 comes from baseline 
measures. These account for approximately 66 percent of the 
NOX (251 tpd) reductions needed for attainment of the 1997 
ozone NAAQS. The 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP relies on the District's 
and CARB's enforceable commitments to achieve aggregate emission 
reductions through implementation of the measures described above in 
section III.D.2.b.i and III.D.2.b.ii of this document to provide the 
reductions (beyond those from baseline measures) that are necessary to 
achieve the 1997 ozone NAAQS by 2023.

     Table 10--Summary of 1997 Ozone NAAQS Attainment Demonstration
                    [Summer planning inventory, tpd]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              NOX \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
A. 2012 Base Year Emissions Level \b\...................             522
B. 2023 Attainment Year Baseline Emissions Level \b\....             269
C. Set-Aside (Phase-Out of Toxics, General Conformity,                 3
 SIP Reserve) \c\.......................................
D. 2023 Adjusted Baseline (i.e., includes Set-Aside) (B              272
 + C)...................................................
E. 2023 Modeled Attainment Emissions Level \d\..........             141
F. Total Reductions Needed from 2012 Base Year Levels to             381
 Demonstrate Attainment (A-E)...........................
G. Reductions from Baseline (i.e., adopted) Measures, as             250
 adjusted to account for Set-Aside (A-D)................
H. Reductions from District's Aggregate Emission                      23
 Reduction Commitments from 2016 AQMP \e\...............
I. Reductions from CARB's Aggregate Emission Reduction                 5
 Commitments from 2016 State Strategy--Defined Measures
 \f\....................................................
J. Reductions from CARB's Aggregate Emission Reduction               108
 Commitments from 2016 State Strategy--New Technology
 Measures \f\...........................................
K. Total Reductions from District and CARB Commitments               136
 in 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy (H + I + J).......
L. Total Reductions from Baseline Measures plus District             386
 and CARB Commitments in 2016 AQMP and 2016 State
 Strategy (G + K).......................................
M. 2023 Emissions with Reductions from Control Strategy              136
 (A-L)..................................................
Attainment demonstrated?................................             Yes
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes and sources:
\a\ VOC emissions are not included in this table because attainment of
  the 8-hour ozone NAAQS in the South Coast is dependent almost
  exclusively on NOX reductions.
\b\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix III, Attachment B; Year 2023 baseline estimates
  for aircraft, oceangoing vessels, and commercial harbor craft have
  been updated based on information contained in the 2018 SIP Update,
  page A-35.
\c\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix III, pages II-2-90 through III-2-92.
\d\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix V, page V-4-2.
\e\ 2016 AQMP, Table 4-10.
\f\ 2016 State Strategy, Table 4; CARB's aggregate emission reduction
  commitment is for 113 tpd of NOX reductions by 2023; for analytical
  purposes only, we have distinguished the estimated emissions
  reductions for defined measures from those for new technology
  measures.

iii. Attainment Demonstration for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS
    In the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy, the District and State 
collectively demonstrate attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS. Table 11 
below summarizes the attainment demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS 
by listing the base year (2012) emissions level, the modeled attainment 
emissions level, and the reductions that the District and CARB have 
committed

[[Page 28153]]

to achieve through adoption of the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy.
    As shown in Table 11, the majority of emission reductions needed 
for attaining the 2008 ozone NAAQS by 2031 comes from baseline 
measures. These account for approximately 66 percent of the 
NOX (283 tpd) reductions needed for attainment of the 2008 
ozone NAAQS. The 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP relies on the District's 
and CARB's enforceable commitments to achieve aggregate emission 
reductions through implementation of the measures described above in 
section III.D.2.b.i and III.D.2.b.ii of this document to provide the 
reductions (beyond those from baseline measures) that are necessary to 
achieve the 2008 ozone NAAQS by 2031.

     Table 11--Summary of 2008 Ozone NAAQS Attainment Demonstration
                    [Summer planning inventory, tpd]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              NOX \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
A. 2012 Base Year Emissions Level \b\...................             522
B. 2031 Attainment Year Baseline Emissions Level \b\....             238
C. Set-Aside (Phase-Out of Toxics, General Conformity,                 1
 SIP Reserve) \c\.......................................
D. 2031 Adjusted Baseline (i.e., includes Set-Aside) (B              239
 + C)...................................................
E. 2031 Modeled Attainment Emissions Level \d\..........              96
F. Total Reductions Needed from 2012 Base Year Levels to             426
 Demonstrate Attainment (A-E)...........................
G. Reductions from Baseline (i.e., adopted) Measures, as             283
 adjusted to account for Set-Aside (A-D)................
H. Reductions from District's Aggregate Emission                      31
 Reduction Commitments from 2016 AQMP \e\...............
I. Reductions from CARB's Aggregate Emission Reduction                14
 Commitments from 2016 State Strategy--Defined Measures
 \f\....................................................
J. Reductions from CARB's Aggregate Emission Reduction                97
 Commitments from 2016 State Strategy--New Technology
 Measures \f\...........................................
K. Total Reductions from District and CARB Commitments               142
 in 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy (H + I + J).......
L. Total Reductions from Baseline Measures plus District             425
 and CARB Commitments in 2016 AQMP and 2016 State
 Strategy (G + K).......................................
M. 2031 Emissions with Reductions from Control Strategy               97
 (A-L)..................................................
Attainment demonstrated?................................             Yes
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes and sources:
\a\ VOC emissions are not included in this table because attainment of
  the 8-hour ozone NAAQS in the South Coast is dependent almost
  exclusively on NOX reductions.
\b\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix III, Attachment B; Year 2031 baseline estimates
  for aircraft, oceangoing vessels, and commercial harbor craft have
  been updated based on information contained in the 2018 SIP Update,
  page A-35.
\c\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix III, pages II-2-90 through III-2-92.
\d\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix V, page V-4-2.
\e\ 2016 AQMP, Table 4-11.
\f\ 2016 State Strategy, Table 4; CARB's aggregate emission reduction
  commitment is for 111 tpd of NOX reductions by 2031; for analytical
  purposes only, we have distinguished the estimated emissions
  reductions for defined measures from those for new technology
  measures.

3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
a. Photochemical Modeling
    To approve a SIP's attainment demonstration, the EPA must make 
several findings. First, we must find that the demonstration's 
technical bases, including the emissions inventories and air quality 
modeling, are adequate. As discussed above in section III.A of this 
action, we are proposing to approve the base year emissions inventory 
and to find that the future year emissions projections in the 2016 AQMP 
reflect appropriate calculation methods and that the latest planning 
assumptions are properly supported by SIP-approved stationary and 
mobile source measures.
    With respect to the photochemical modeling in the 2016 AQMP and 1-
Hour Ozone Update, based on our review of appendix V of the 2016 AQMP 
and the 1-Hour Ozone Update, the EPA finds that the modeling is 
adequate for purposes of supporting the attainment demonstration.\108\ 
First, we note the extensive discussion of modeling procedures, tests, 
and performance analyses called for in the Modeling Protocol (i.e., 
chapter 2 of Appendix V of the 2016 AQMP) and the good model 
performance. Second, we find the WRF meteorological model results and 
performance statistics including hourly time series graphs of wind 
speed, direction, and temperature for the South Coast, to be 
satisfactory and consistent with our Modeling Guidance.\109\ 
Performance was evaluated for each month in each zone for the entire 
year of 2012.\110\ Diurnal variation of temperature, humidity and 
surface wind are well represented by WRF. Geographically, winds are 
predicted most accurately at the inland urban receptor sites. Accurate 
wind predictions in this region of elevated ozone concentrations is one 
of the most critical factors to simulate chemical transport. Overall, 
the daily WRF simulation for 2012 provided representative 
meteorological fields that characterized the observed conditions well.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \108\ The EPA's review of the modeling and attainment 
demonstration is discussed in greater detail in section V. Modeling 
and Attainment Demonstration of the TSD.
    \109\ Modeling Guidance, 30.
    \110\ Temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and wind speed were 
evaluated in terms of normalized gross bias and normalized gross 
error.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The model performance statistics for ozone are described in 
chapters 5 and 8 of Appendix V and are based on the statistical 
evaluation recommended in the Modeling Guidance. Model performance was 
provided for 8-hour and 1-hour daily maximum ozone for each of the 
South Coast sub-regions.\111\ The model performance varied by zone, 
with over-prediction in the ``Coastal zone'' and under-prediction in 
the ``San Fernando,'' and ``Foothills'' zones. The model ozone 
predictions in the ``Urban Receptor'' zone, where the design site 
station is located, agree reasonably well with the measurements.\112\ 
The 2016

[[Page 28154]]

AQMP also presents ozone frequency distributions, scatter plots, and 
plots of bias against concentration. The scatter and density scatter 
plots show low bias at high concentrations, and higher bias at low 
concentrations. The modeling guidance requires the use of only the top 
10 days in the RRF calculation, indicating that the modeling capability 
to predict high concentrations is more important than the prediction of 
low concentrations. The supplemental hourly time series show generally 
good performance, though many individual daily ozone peaks are 
underpredicted. Note that, because only relative changes are used from 
the modeling, the underprediction of absolute ozone concentrations does 
not mean that future concentrations will be underestimated. The 2016 
AQMP's unmonitored area analysis showed concentrations below 1997 and 
2008 ozone NAAQS for all locations.\113\ This analysis adds assurance 
to the attainment demonstrations that all locations in the South Coast 
will attain the 1997 ozone NAAQS by 2023 and the 2008 ozone NAAQS by 
2031. In addition, the weight of evidence analyses presented in the 
2016 AQMP and 1-Hour Update provide additional information with respect 
to the sensitivity to emission changes and improve the understanding of 
the model performance. We are proposing to find the air quality 
modeling adequate to support the updated attainment demonstrations for 
the 1-hour ozone and 1997 ozone NAAQS and the attainment demonstration 
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, based on reasonable meteorological and ozone 
modeling performance, supported by the unmonitored area and weight of 
evidence analyses.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \111\ These zones are represented by the following ozone 
monitoring sites: ``Coastal''(Costa Mesa, LAX, Long Beach, Mission 
Viejo, West Los Angeles); ``Urban Source''(Anaheim, Central Los 
Angeles, Compton, La Habra, Pico Rivera, Pomona) ''San 
Fernando''(Reseda, Santa Clarita, Burbank); ``Foothills''(Azusa, 
Glendora, Pasadena); and ``Urban Receptor''(Crestline, Fontana, Lake 
Elsinore, Mira Loma, Redlands, Rubidoux, San Bernardino, Upland).
    \112\ Table V-5-7; 2012 Base Year 8-Hour Average Ozone 
Performance for Days When Regional 8-Hour Maximum >= 60 parts per 
billion in the ``Urban Receptor'' region. Appendix V of the 2016 
AQMP, page V-5-13.
    \113\ Appendix V of the 2016 AQMP, Unmonitored Area Analysis, V-
5-28 to V-5-35. Spatial projections of the 8-hour and 1-hour design 
values were also provided. See Appendix V of the 2016 AQMP, Spatial 
Projections of 8-Hour Ozone Design Values, pages V-5-25 to V-5-28, 
and 1-Hour Ozone Update, Spatial Projections of 1-Hour Ozone Design 
Values, p. 10-11.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

b. Control Strategy for Attainment
    Second, we must find that the emissions reductions that are relied 
on for attainment are creditable and are sufficient to provide for 
attainment. As shown in tables 9, 10, and 11 above, the 2016 South 
Coast Ozone SIP relies on adopted measures to achieve a significant 
portion of the emissions reductions needed to attain the 1-hour ozone 
NAAQS by 2022, the 1997 ozone NAAQS by 2023, and the 2008 ozone NAAQS 
by 2031. The balance of the reductions needed for attainment is in the 
form of enforceable commitments to take certain specific regulatory and 
nonregulatory actions within prescribed periods and to achieve 
aggregate tonnage reductions of VOC or NOX by specific years 
in the South Coast. The enforceable commitments made by the District 
and CARB through adoption of the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy are 
similar to the enforceable commitments that the EPA has approved as 
part of attainment demonstrations in previous California air quality 
plans and that have withstood legal challenge.\114\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \114\ See Committee for a Better Arvin v. EPA, 786 F.3d 1169 
(9th Cir. 2015) (approval of state commitments to propose and adopt 
emissions control measures and to achieve aggregate emissions 
reductions for San Joaquin Valley ozone and particulate matter plans 
upheld); Physicians for Social Responsibility--Los Angeles v. EPA, 
9th Cir., memorandum opinion issued July 25, 2016 (approval of air 
district commitments to propose and adopt measures and to achieve 
aggregate emissions reductions for South Coast 1-hour ozone plan 
upheld).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As noted in the preceding paragraph the EPA has previously accepted 
enforceable commitments in lieu of adopted control measures in 
attainment demonstrations when the circumstances warrant them and when 
the commitments meet specific criteria. We believe that, with respect 
to all three ozone NAAQS, circumstances warrant the consideration of 
enforceable commitments as part of the attainment demonstrations for 
the South Coast. First, as shown in tables 9, 10 and 11 above, a 
substantial portion of the emission reductions needed to demonstrate 
attainment in the South Coast come from measures adopted prior to 
adoption and submittal of the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy. As a 
result of these State and District efforts, most emissions sources in 
the South Coast are currently subject to stringent emission limitations 
and other requirements, leaving few opportunities to further reduce 
emissions. In the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy, the District and 
CARB identified potential control measures that could provide many of 
the additional emissions reductions needed for attainment. These are 
described above in sections III.D.2.b.i and III.D.2.b.ii of this 
action. However, the timeline needed to develop, adopt, and implement 
these measures went beyond the required submittal date for the 
attainment demonstration for the South Coast for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. 
These circumstances warrant the District's and CARB's reliance on 
enforceable commitments as part of the attainment demonstrations for 
the 1-hour, 1997, and 2008 ozone NAAQS.
    Given the State's demonstrated need for reliance on enforceable 
commitments, we now consider the three factors the EPA uses to 
determine whether the use of enforceable commitments in lieu of adopted 
measures to meet CAA planning requirements is approvable: (a) Does the 
commitment address a limited portion of the statutorily-required 
program; (b) is the state capable of fulfilling its commitment; and (c) 
is the commitment for a reasonable and appropriate period of time.
i. Commitments are a Limited Portion of Required Reductions
    For the first factor, we look to see if the commitment addresses a 
limited portion of a statutory requirement and review the amount of 
emissions reductions needed to demonstrate attainment in a 
nonattainment area. For this calculation, reductions assigned to the 
new technologies provision (i.e., CAA section 182(e)(5) new technology 
measures) are not counted as commitments.\115\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \115\ CAA section 182(e)(5) specifically allows EPA to approve 
an attainment demonstration that relies on reductions from new 
technologies. This provision is separate from the requirement in CAA 
section 172(c)(6) for enforceable emissions limitations under which 
enforceable commitments are considered. As a result, reductions 
attributed in the attainment demonstration to new technologies are 
not considered part of the State's enforceable commitments for 
purposes of determining the percentage of reductions needed for 
attainment that remain as commitments.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Tables 9, 10, and 11 above show emission reductions needed to 
demonstrate attainment of the 1-hour, 1997, and 2008 8-hour NAAQS in 
the South Coast and the aggregate emissions reductions commitments by 
the District and CARB. Based on these values, we have calculated the 
percent of required reductions that would come from enforceable 
commitments by the District and CARB (other than new technology 
measures). See Table 12 below.

[[Page 28155]]



              Table 12--Enforceable Aggregate Commitments as a Percentage of Required Reductions a
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                               2022                    2023            2031
                 Attainment year                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        NOX             VOC             NOX             NOX
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tons per day....................................              21               6              28              45
Percentage of Required Reductions \b\...........              8%              5%              7%             11%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes and sources:
\a\ CAA section 182(e)(5) reductions are not included below.
\b\ The percentage of required emissions from enforceable commitments is calculated by dividing the sum of Rows
  H and I in tables 9, 10, and 11 above by Row F.

    As shown in Table 12, when compared to the total reductions needed 
to demonstrate attainment (not including the CAA section 182(e)(5) 
reductions in the attainment demonstration), the remaining portion of 
the enforceable commitments represents a small fraction of the 
reductions needed. Historically, the EPA has approved SIPs with 
enforceable commitments in the range of approximately 10 percent of the 
total needed reductions for attainment.\116\ Thus, we find that the 
District's and CARB commitments in the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State 
Strategy for the South Coast address a limited proportion of the 
required emission reductions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \116\ See our approval of the following plans: San Joaquin 
Valley (SJV) PM10 Plan at 69 FR 30005 (May 26, 2004); SJV 
1-hour ozone plan at 75 FR 10420 (March 8, 2010); Houston-Galveston 
1-hour ozone plan at 66 FR 57160 (November 14, 2001); South Coast 
1997 8-hour ozone plan at 77 FR 12674 (March 1, 2012); and South 
Coast 1-hour ozone plan at 79 FR 52526 (September 3, 2014).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

ii. The State Is Capable of Fulfilling its Commitment
    For the second factor, we consider whether the District and CARB 
are capable of fulfilling their commitments. CARB adopted and submitted 
the 2016 State Strategy to achieve the reductions necessary from mobile 
sources, fuels, and consumer products to meet ozone and 
PM2.5 NAAQS over the next 15 years. The 2016 State Strategy 
builds on the 2007 State Strategy and its revisions. The 2016 State 
Strategy shows that CARB has made significant progress in fulfilling 
its enforceable commitments from the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP. The 
District has also made significant progress in meeting its enforceable 
commitments in its prior AQMPs.
    The District and CARB also have a history of funding incentive 
grant programs to reduce emissions from the on- and off-road engine 
fleets. CARB has also continued to work with the District on defining 
funding needs and mechanisms for implementing the 2016 State Strategy. 
Working with CARB, the District has estimated that sustained funding 
levels of approximately $1 billion per year through 2031 will be needed 
to support the necessary scale of technology transformation. The 
District developed a Draft Financial Incentives Funding Action Plan 
(``Funding Action Plan'') \117\ that describes existing sources of 
funding, new funding opportunities, activities that will be undertaken 
to pursue each potential funding mechanism, as well as a schedule and 
reporting process. As part of this effort, the District has identified 
a broad spectrum of potential funding mechanisms that could meet the 
region's funding needs. The District established a stakeholder-based 
2016 AQMP Funding Working Group that began meeting in August 2017 to 
help further develop and implement the Funding Action Plan. CARB will 
continue to collaborate with the District on the Funding Action Plan, 
as well as play a key role in implementing state-level efforts that are 
facilitating the transition to cleaner technologies, such as the 
California Sustainable Freight Action Plan, the ZEV Action Plan, and 
the Transformative Climate Communities program.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \117\ See http://www.aqmd.gov/docs/default-source/clean-air-plans/air-quality-management-plans/2016-air-quality-management-plan/draftfinancialincentivefunddec2016.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Given CARB's and the District's efforts to date to reduce 
emissions, we believe that the State and District are capable of 
meeting their enforceable commitments to adopt measures that will 
reduce emissions to the levels needed to attain the 1-hour, 1997, and 
2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast by the 2022, 2023, and 2031 
attainment years, respectively.
iii. The Commitment Is for a Reasonable and Appropriate Timeframe
    For the third and last factor, we consider whether the commitment 
is for a reasonable and appropriate period of time. To meet the 
commitments to adopt measures to reduce emissions to the levels needed 
to attain the 1-hour, 1997, and 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast, 
the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy includes ambitious rule 
development, adoption, and implementation schedules. The District and 
CARB have committed to take the necessary actions and to achieve the 
remaining reductions by 2022, 2023, and 2031. We believe that this 
period is appropriate given the technological and economic challenges 
associated with the control measures that will be needed to achieve 
these reductions and given the procedures under state law for 
development and adoption of these measures. In addition, these 
reductions are not needed to meet RFP targets for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, 
and the adoption and submission timeframe ensures adequate time for 
implementation by the beginning of the last full ozone season 
applicable to each of the three ozone standards addressed in the 2016 
South Coast Ozone SIP. Thus, the commitments are for a reasonable and 
appropriate period of time.
iv. CAA Section 182(e)(5) New Technology Provisions
    For ozone nonattainment areas classified as Extreme, the CAA 
recognizes that an attainment demonstration may need to rely to a 
certain extent on new or evolving technologies, given the long time 
period between developing the initial plan and attaining the standard, 
and the degree of emissions reductions needed to attain. To address 
these needs, CAA section 182(e)(5) authorizes the EPA to approve 
provisions in an Extreme area plan which ``anticipate development of 
new control techniques or improvement of existing control 
technologies,'' and to approve an attainment demonstration based on 
such provisions, if the state demonstrates that: (1) Such provisions 
are not necessary to achieve the incremental emission reductions 
required during the first 10 years after November 15, 1990; and (2) the 
state has submitted enforceable commitments to develop and adopt 
contingency measures to be implemented if the anticipated technologies 
do not achieve the planned reductions. The state must submit these 
contingency measures to the EPA no later than 3 years before

[[Page 28156]]

proposed implementation of these long-term measures, and the 
contingency measures must be ``adequate to produce emissions reductions 
sufficient, in conjunction with other approved plan provisions, to 
achieve the periodic emissions reductions required by [CAA sections 
182(b)(1) or (c)(2)] and attainment by the applicable dates.'' \118\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \118\ Id.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The General Preamble further provides that the new technology 
measures contemplated by section 182(e)(5) may include those that 
anticipate future technological developments as well as those that 
require complex analyses, decision making, and coordination among a 
number of government agencies.\119\ An attainment demonstration that 
relies on long-term new technology measures under section 182(e)(5) 
must identify any such measures and contain a schedule outlining the 
steps leading to final development and adoption of the measures.\120\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \119\ General Preamble, 13524.
    \120\ Id.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CARB and the SCAQMD have demonstrated a clear need for emissions 
reductions from new and improved control technologies to reduce air 
pollution in the South Coast. The adopted control measures and 
enforceable commitments, discussed above, provide the majority, but not 
all, of the balance of the emissions reductions needed to attain the 
1997 and 2008 ozone NAAQS by 2023, and 2031, respectively. (The updated 
attainment demonstration in the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP for the 1-
hour ozone NAAQS does not rely on CAA section 182(e)(5) new technology 
provisions.)
    Through adoption of the 2016 State Strategy, CARB is updating its 
previously-approved commitments from the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP to 
achieve aggregate emissions reductions from defined and new technology 
measures for the 1997 ozone NAAQS. More specifically, CARB is replacing 
its commitments to achieve 141 tpd of NOX reductions and 54 
tpd of VOC reductions from defined measures and to achieve 241 tpd of 
NOX reductions and 40 tpd of VOC reductions from new 
technology measures by 2023 with a combined (i.e., defined and new 
technology measures together in a single commitment) commitment to 
achieve 113 tpd of NOX reductions and 50-51 tpd of VOC 
reductions by 2023.
    We find that CARB's updated commitment \121\ for the 1997 ozone 
NAAQS in the 2016 State Strategy satisfies the criteria in CAA section 
182(e)(5) for the following reasons: (1) The 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP 
does not rely on the new technology measure reductions until the 
attainment year (2023); (2) it does not rely on new technology measure 
reductions to achieve RFP milestones for the first 10 years after 
designation (for the 1997 ozone NAAQS); and (3) the previously-approved 
commitment by CARB to submit contingency measures by 2020 (as necessary 
to cover any shortfall from new technology measures) remains in effect. 
Moreover, we find that the 2016 State Strategy adequately describes the 
new technology measures by, among other things, identifying a schedule 
outlining the specific actions to be taken to develop and adopt the 
measures and achieve the related reductions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \121\ We approved CARB's commitment for contingency measures to 
cover any new technology measures shortfall as part of our approval 
of the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP. 77 FR 12674, at 12695 (March 1, 
2012) (approval of section 182(e)(5) contingency measure commitment 
in CARB Resolution 11-22 (July 21, 2011).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    With respect to attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS for the South 
Coast, through adoption of the 2016 State Strategy, CARB commits to 
achieve aggregate emissions reductions from a combination of defined 
and new technology measures of 111 tpd of NOX and 59-60 tpd 
of VOC by 2031. As described above with respect to CARB's updated 
commitment for the 1997 ozone NAAQS, we recognize that the 2016 State 
Strategy does not rely on the new technology measure reductions until 
the attainment year (2031) and thus, does not rely on them to achieve 
RFP milestones for the first 10 years after designation (for the 2008 
ozone NAAQS). Also, we find that CARB's description of the new 
technology measures in the 2016 State Strategy to be adequate. For the 
2008 ozone NAAQS, CARB has submitted a new commitment to develop, adopt 
and submit contingency measures by 2028 if new technology measures do 
not achieve planned reductions.\122\ We find that CARB's new commitment 
complies with the criterion in CAA section 182(e)(5) that requires 
submittal of such contingency measures no later than 3 years prior to 
implementation of the new technology measures.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \122\ CARB Resolution 17-8, 9 (March 23, 2017) (CARB resolution 
adopting the 2016 AQMP as a revision to the California SIP).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

v. Proposed Action on Measures in the Attainment Strategy
    As discussed above, we believe that circumstances here warrant the 
consideration of enforceable commitments, and that the three criteria 
are met: (1) The commitments constitute a limited portion of the 
required emissions reductions; (2) both CARB and the District are 
capable of meeting their commitments; and (3) the commitments are for 
an appropriate timeframe. Based on these evaluations, we are proposing 
to approve the enforceable commitments as part of the attainment 
demonstration.
    More specifically, we propose to approve the SCAQMD's updated 
commitments for the 1-hour and 1997 ozone NAAQS and new commitment for 
the 2008 ozone NAAQS: (1) To develop, adopt, submit, and implement the 
ozone measures in tables 4-2 and 4-4 of Chapter 4 in the 2016 AQMP 
(main document); and (2) to meet or exceed the aggregate emissions 
reduction commitments identified in tables 4-9 through 4-11 of the 2016 
AQMP (main document); and (3) to substitute any other measures as 
necessary to make up any emissions reduction shortfall following the 
procedures set forth for such substitution in Chapter 4 (pages 4-54 and 
4-55) of the 2016 AQMP.
    We also propose to approve CARB's updated commitment for the 1997 
ozone NAAQS and new commitment for the 2008 ozone NAAQS: (1) To bring 
to its Board for consideration the list of proposed SIP measures 
outlined in Chapter 4 of the 2016 State Strategy and included in 
Attachment A (``Proposed New SIP Measures and Schedule'') of CARB Board 
Resolution 17-7 according to the schedule set forth therein; and (2) to 
achieve the aggregate emission reductions from defined and new 
technology measures for the South Coast outlined in the 2016 State 
Strategy of 113 tpd of NOX and 50-51 tpd of VOC by 2023 and 
111 tpd of NOX and 59-60 tpd of VOC by 2031. In connection 
with the new technology measures, we propose to find that the 2016 
South Coast Ozone SIP meets the criteria for reliance on new technology 
measures in CAA section 182(e)(5) for the 1997 and 2008 ozone NAAQS. 
Our proposed finding in this regard is based on the proposed approval 
herein of CARB's commitment in Resolution 17-8 (March 23, 2017) to 
develop, adopt, and submit contingency measures by 2028 (for the 
purposes of attaining the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast) if new 
technology measures do not achieve planned reductions. (As noted 
previously, CARB has already submitted as part of the 2007 South Coast 
Ozone SIP, and the EPA has approved, a commitment to submit such 
measures by 2020 for the purposes of attaining the 1997 ozone NAAQS in 
the South Coast if new technology measures do not achieve planned 
reductions.)

[[Page 28157]]

c. Attainment Demonstration
    Based on our proposed determinations that the photochemical 
modeling and control strategy are acceptable, and our proposed approval 
of the aggregate emissions reduction commitments by the District and 
CARB, including the commitment by CARB to submit contingency measures 
to cover the reductions from new technology measures if needed, we 
propose to approve the updated attainment demonstrations for the 1-hour 
ozone NAAQS and the 1997 ozone NAAQS, and the attainment demonstration 
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP as meeting 
the requirements of CAA section 182(c)(2)(A) and 40 CFR 51.1108.\123\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \123\ We recognize that in Table 11 the control strategy is 
expected to achieve a NOX emissions level of 97 tpd by 
2031 in the South Coast whereas the modeled attainment demonstration 
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS is based on a NOX emissions 
level of 96 tpd. However, we believe that the control strategy will 
suffice to attain the NAAQS because a shortfall of 1 tpd of 
NOX is unlikely to have a 0.001 ppm or greater impact on 
the 0.075 ppm model-predicted 8-hour ozone concentration in 2031 
(controlled case) at the highest site (Fontana) as shown in Table 5-
2 of the 2016 AQMP based on the isopleth map for the Fontana site 
shown on page 7 of Attachment 4 to Appendix V of the 2016 AQMP. 
(Note that under the control strategy in the 2016 AQMP and 2016 
State Strategy, South Coast VOC emissions in 2031 are expected to be 
approximately 292-293 tpd based on the 2031 baseline value (362 tpd) 
minus the District's and CARB's aggregate emission reduction 
commitments by 2031.)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

E. Rate of Progress Plan and Reasonable Further Progress Demonstration

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
    Requirements for RFP for ozone nonattainment areas are specified in 
CAA sections 172(c)(2), 182(b)(1), and 182(c)(2)(B). Under CAA section 
171(1), RFP is defined as meaning such annual incremental reductions in 
emissions of the relevant air pollutant as are required under part D 
(``Plan Requirements for Nonattainment Areas'') or may reasonably be 
required by the EPA for the purpose of ensuring attainment of the 
applicable NAAQS by the applicable date. CAA section 182(b)(1) 
specifically requires that ozone nonattainment areas that are 
classified as Moderate or above demonstrate a 15 percent reduction in 
VOC between the years of 1990 and 1996. The EPA has typically referred 
to section 182(b)(1) as the Rate of Progress (ROP) requirement. For 
ozone nonattainment areas classified as Serious or higher, section 
182(c)(2)(B) requires reductions averaged over each consecutive 3-year 
period, beginning 6 years after the baseline year until the attainment 
date, of at least 3 percent of baseline emissions per year. The 
provisions in CAA section 182(c)(2)(B)(ii) allow an amount less than 3 
percent of such baseline emissions each year if the state demonstrates 
to the EPA that the plan includes all measures that can feasibly be 
implemented in the area in light of technological achievability.
    In the 2008 Ozone SRR, the EPA provides that areas classified 
Moderate or higher will have met the ROP requirements of CAA section 
182(b)(1) if the area has a fully approved 15 percent ROP plan for the 
1-hour or 1997 8-hour ozone standards, provided the boundaries of the 
ozone nonattainment areas are the same.\124\ For such areas, the EPA 
interprets the RFP requirements of CAA section 172(c)(2) to require 
areas classified as Moderate to provide a 15 percent emission reduction 
of ozone precursors within 6 years of the baseline year. Areas 
classified as Serious or higher must meet the RFP requirements of CAA 
section 182(c)(2)(B) by providing an 18 percent reduction of ozone 
precursors in the first 6-year period, and an average ozone precursor 
emission reduction of 3 percent per year for all remaining 3-year 
periods thereafter.\125\ To meet CAA sections 172(c)(2) and 
182(c)(2)(B) RFP requirements, the state may substitute NOX 
emissions reductions for VOC reductions.\126\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \124\ 70 FR 12264, at 12271 (March 6, 2015).
    \125\ Id.
    \126\ 40 CFR 51.1110(a)(2)(i)(C) and 40 CFR 
51.1110(a)(2)(ii)(B); and 70 FR 12264, at 12271 (March 6, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Except as specifically provided in CAA section 182(b)(1)(C), 
emissions reductions from all SIP-approved, federally promulgated, or 
otherwise SIP-creditable measures that occur after the baseline year 
are creditable for purposes of demonstrating that the RFP targets are 
met. Because the EPA has determined that the passage of time has caused 
the effect of certain exclusions to be de minimis, the RFP 
demonstration is no longer required to calculate and specifically 
exclude reductions from measures related to motor vehicle exhaust or 
evaporative emissions promulgated by January 1, 1990; regulations 
concerning Reid vapor pressure promulgated by November 15, 1990; 
measures to correct previous RACT requirements; and, measures required 
to correct previous inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs.\127\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \127\ 40 CFR 51.1110(a)(7).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The 2008 Ozone SRR requires the RFP baseline year to be the most 
recent calendar year for which a complete triennial inventory was 
required to be submitted to the EPA. For the purposes of developing RFP 
demonstrations for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, the applicable triennial 
inventory year is 2011. As discussed previously, the 2008 Ozone SRR 
provided states with the opportunity to use an alternative baseline 
year for RFP,\128\ but that provision of the 2008 Ozone SRR was vacated 
by the D.C. Circuit in the South Coast II decision.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \128\ 40 CFR 51.1110(b).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Summary of the State's Submission
    In response to the South Coast II decision, CARB developed the 2018 
SIP Update, which replaces the RFP portion of the 2016 AQMP and 
includes updated emissions estimates for the RFP baseline year, 
subsequent milestone years, and the attainment year, and an updated RFP 
demonstration relying on a 2011 RFP baseline year.\129\ To develop the 
2011 RFP baseline inventory, CARB relied on actual emissions reported 
from industrial point sources for year 2011 and backcast emissions from 
smaller stationary sources and area sources from 2012 to 2011 using the 
same growth and control factors as was used for the 2016 AQMP. To 
develop the emissions inventories for the RFP milestone years (i.e., 
2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, 2029) and attainment year (2031), CARB also 
relied upon the same growth and control factors as the 2016 AQMP.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \129\ 2018 SIP Update, RFP demonstration, section IX-B, 64 and 
65.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Documentation for the South Coast RFP baseline and milestone 
emissions inventories is found in the 2018 SIP Update on pages 4-5, 63-
65, and appendix A, pages A-31--A-35. For both sets of baseline 
emissions inventories (those in the 2016 AQMP and those in the 2018 SIP 
Update), emissions estimates reflect District rules adopted through 
December 2015 and CARB rules adopted through November 2015. Unlike the 
emissions inventories for the base year (2012) and for the attainment 
demonstrations in the 2016 AQMP, the RFP baseline and milestone 
emissions inventories only include emissions within the South Coast 
ozone nonattainment area and thus do not include marine emissions 
(e.g., emissions from ocean-going vessels) beyond three nautical miles 
from the coastline. In contrast, the base year (2012) and attainment 
demonstration inventories include emissions from marine vessels out to 
100 miles from the coastline.

[[Page 28158]]

    The updated RFP demonstration for the South Coast for the 2008 
ozone NAAQS is shown in Table 13. The updated RFP demonstration 
calculates future year VOC targets from the 2011 baseline, consistent 
with CAA 182(c)(2)(B)(i), which requires reductions of ``at least 3 
percent of baseline emissions each year;'' and it substitutes 
NOX reductions for VOC reductions beginning in milestone 
year 2020 to meet VOC emission targets.\130\ For the South Coast, CARB 
concludes that the RFP demonstration meets the applicable requirements 
for each milestone year as well as the attainment year.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \130\ NOX substitution is permitted under EPA 
regulations. See 40 CFR 51.1110(a)(2)(i)(C) and 40 CFR 
51.1110(a)(2)(ii)(B); and 70 FR 12264, at 12271 (March 6, 2015).

                                        Table 13--RFP Demonstration for the South Coast for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS
                                                       [Summer planning inventory, tpd or percent]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                   2011         2017         2020         2023         2026         2029         2031
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                           VOC
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline VOC.................................................        522.0        413.7        388.6        376.0        367.5        362.5        358.3
Required change since 2011 (VOC or NOX), %...................  ...........          18%          27%          36%          45%          54%          60%
Required reductions since 2011, tpd..........................  ...........         94.0        140.9        187.9        234.9        281.9        313.2
Target VOC level.............................................  ...........        428.0        381.1        334.1        287.1        240.1        208.8
Apparent shortfall (-)/surplus (+) in VOC....................  ...........         14.3         -7.5        -41.9        -80.4       -122.4       -149.5
Apparent shortfall (-)/surplus (+) in VOC, %.................  ...........         2.8%        -1.4%        -8.0%       -15.4%       -23.4%       -28.6%
VOC shortfall previously provided by NOX substitution, %.....  ...........         0.0%         0.0%         1.4%         8.0%        15.4%        23.4%
Actual VOC shortfall (-)/surplus (+), %......................  ...........         2.8%        -1.4%        -6.6%        -7.4%        -8.1%        -5.2%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                           NO
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline NOX.................................................        534.3        366.2        306.5        239.0        220.9        209.9        204.9
Change in NOX since 2011, tpd................................  ...........        168.1        227.9        295.3        313.4        324.4        329.4
Change in NOX since 2011, %..................................  ...........        31.5%        42.6%        55.3%        58.7%        60.7%        61.7%
NOX reductions used for VOC substitution through last          ...........           0%           0%         1.4%         8.0%        15.4%        23.4%
 milestone year, %...........................................
NOX reductions since 2011 available for VOC substitution in    ...........        31.5%        42.6%        53.8%        50.6%        45.3%        38.2%
 this milestone year, %......................................
NOX reductions since 2011 used for VOC substitution in this    ...........           0%         1.4%         6.6%         7.4%         8.1%         5.2%
 milestone year, %...........................................
NOX reductions since 2011 surplus after meeting VOC            ...........        31.5%        41.2%        47.2%        43.3%        37.3%        33.0%
 substitution needs in this milestone year, %................
Total shortfall for RFP......................................  ...........           0%           0%           0%           0%           0%           0%
RFP met?.....................................................  ...........          Yes          Yes          Yes          Yes          Yes          Yes
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Table IX-2 of the 2018 SIP Update.

3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
    In 1997, the EPA approved a 15 percent ROP plan for the South Coast 
ozone nonattainment area for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, and the South 
Coast nonattainment area for the 2008 ozone NAAQS is the same as the 
South Coast nonattainment area for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS.\131\ As a 
result, the District and CARB have met the ROP requirements of CAA 
section 182(b)(1) for the South Coast and do not need to demonstrate 
another 15 percent reduction in VOC for this area.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \131\ 62 FR 1150, at 1183 (January 8, 1997).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Based on our review of the emissions inventory documentation in the 
2016 AQMP and 2018 SIP Update, we find that CARB and the District have 
used the most recent planning and activity assumptions, emissions 
models, and methodologies in developing the RFP baseline and milestone 
year emissions inventories. We have also have reviewed the calculations 
in Table IX-2 of the 2018 SIP Update and presented in Table 13 above 
and find that the District and CARB have used an appropriate 
calculation method to demonstrate RFP. For these reasons, we have 
determined that the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP demonstrates RFP in each 
milestone year and the attainment year, consistent with applicable CAA 
requirements and EPA guidance. We therefore propose to approve the RFP 
demonstrations for the South Coast for the 2008 ozone NAAQS under 
sections 172(c)(2), 182(b)(1) and 182(c)(2)(B) of the CAA and 40 CFR 
51.1110(a)(2)(ii).

F. Transportation Control Strategies and Measures to Offset Emissions 
Increases From Vehicle Miles Traveled

1. Stationary and Regulatory Requirements
    Section 182(d)(1)(A) of the Act requires, in relevant part, the 
state, if subject to its requirements for a given area, to ``submit a 
revision that identifies and adopts specific enforceable transportation 
control strategies and transportation control measures to offset any 
growth in emissions from growth in vehicle miles traveled or number of 
vehicle trips in such area.'' \132\ Herein, we use ``VMT'' to refer to 
vehicle miles traveled and refer to the related SIP requirement as the 
``VMT emissions offset requirement.'' In addition, we refer to the SIP 
revision intended to demonstrate compliance with the VMT emissions 
offset requirement as the ``VMT emissions offset demonstration.''
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    \132\ CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) includes three separate elements. 
In short, under section 182(d)(1)(A), states are required to adopt 
transportation control strategies and measures to offset growth in 
emissions from growth in VMT, and, as necessary, in combination with 
other emission reduction requirements, to demonstrate RFP and 
attainment. For more information on the EPA's interpretation of the 
three elements of section 182(d)(1)(A). See 77 FR 58067, at 58068 
(September 19, 2012) (proposed withdrawal of approval of South Coast 
VMT emissions offset demonstrations). In section III.F of this 
document, we are addressing the first element of CAA section 
182(d)(1)(A) (i.e., the VMT emissions offset requirement). In 
sections III.E and D of this document, we are proposing to approve 
the RFP and attainment demonstrations, respectively, for the 2008 
ozone NAAQS in the South Coast, and compliance with the second and 
third elements of section 182(d)(1)(A) is predicated on final 
approval of the RFP and attainment demonstrations.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In Association of Irritated Residents v. EPA, the United States 
Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit (``Court'') ruled that 
additional transportation control measures are required whenever 
vehicle emissions are projected to be higher than they would have been 
had VMT not increased, even when aggregate

[[Page 28159]]

vehicle emissions are actually decreasing.\133\ In response to the 
Court's decision, in August 2012, the EPA issued a memorandum titled 
``Guidance on Implementing Clean Air Act Section 182(d)(1)(A): 
Transportation Control Measures and Transportation Control Strategies 
to Offset Growth in Emissions Due to Growth in Vehicle Miles 
Travelled'' (herein referred to as the ``August 2012 guidance'').\134\
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    \133\ See Association of Irritated Residents v. EPA, 632 F.3d. 
584, at 596-597 (9th Cir. 2011), reprinted as amended on January 27, 
2012, 686 F.3d 668, further amended February 13, 2012 (``Association 
of Irritated Residents'').
    \134\ Memorandum dated August 30, 2012, Karl Simon, Director, 
Transportation and Climate Division, Office of Transportation and 
Air Quality, to Carl Edland, Director, Multimedia Planning and 
Permitting Division, EPA Region 6, and Deborah Jordan, Director, Air 
Division, EPA Region 9.
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    The August 2012 guidance discusses the meaning of ``transportation 
control strategies'' (TCSs) and ``transportation control measures'' 
(TCMs) and recommends that both TCSs and TCMs be included in the 
calculations made for the purpose of determining the degree to which 
any hypothetical growth in emissions due to growth in VMT should be 
offset. Generally, TCSs is a broad term that encompasses many types of 
controls including, for example, motor vehicle emission limitations, I/
M programs, alternative fuel programs, other technology-based measures, 
and TCMs, that would fit within the regulatory definition of ``control 
strategy.'' \135\ TCMs are defined at 40 CFR 51.100(r) as meaning ``any 
measure that is directed toward reducing emissions of air pollutants 
from transportation sources. Such measures include, but are not limited 
to those listed in section 108(f) of the Clean Air Act[,].'' TCMs 
generally refer to programs intended to reduce the VMT, the number of 
vehicle trips, or traffic congestion, such as programs for improved 
public transit, designation of certain lanes for passenger buses and 
high-occupancy vehicles, and trip reduction ordinances.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \135\ See, e.g., 40 CFR 51.100(n).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The August 2012 guidance explains how states may demonstrate that 
the VMT emissions offset requirement is satisfied in conformance with 
the Court's ruling. States are recommended to estimate emissions for 
the nonattainment area's base year and the attainment year. One 
emission inventory is developed for the base year, and three different 
emissions inventory scenarios are developed for the attainment year. 
For the attainment year, the state would present three emissions 
estimates, two of which would represent hypothetical emissions 
scenarios that would provide the basis to identify the ``growth in 
emissions'' due solely to the growth in VMT, and one that would 
represent projected actual motor vehicle emissions after fully 
accounting for projected VMT growth and offsetting emissions reductions 
obtained by all creditable TCSs and TCMs. See the August 2012 guidance 
for specific details on how states might conduct the calculations.
    The base year on-road VOC emissions should be calculated using VMT 
in that year, and it should reflect all enforceable TCSs and TCMs in 
place in the base year. This would include vehicle emissions standards, 
state and local control programs, such as I/M programs or fuel rules, 
and any additional implemented TCSs and TCMs that were already required 
by or credited in the SIP as of that base year.
    The first of the emissions calculations for the attainment year 
would be based on the projected VMT and trips for that year and assume 
that no new TCSs or TCMs beyond those already credited in the base year 
inventory have been put in place since the base year. This calculation 
demonstrates how emissions would hypothetically change if no new TCSs 
or TCMs were implemented, and VMT and trips were allowed to grow at the 
projected rate from the base year. This estimate would show the 
potential for an increase in emissions due solely to growth in VMT and 
trips. This represents a ``no action'' taken scenario. Emissions in the 
attainment year in this scenario may be lower than those in the base 
year due to the fleet that was on the road in the base year gradually 
being replaced through fleet turnover; however, provided VMT and/or 
numbers of vehicle trips will in fact increase by the attainment year, 
they would still likely be higher than they would have been assuming 
VMT had held constant.
    The second of the attainment year's emissions calculations would 
assume that no new TCSs or TCMs beyond those already credited have been 
put in place since the base year, but it would also assume that there 
was no growth in VMT and trips between the base year and attainment 
year. This estimate reflects the hypothetical emissions level that 
would have occurred if no further TCMs or TCSs had been put in place 
and if VMT and trip levels had held constant since the base year. Like 
the ``no action'' attainment year estimate described above, emissions 
in the attainment year may be lower than those in the base year due to 
the fleet that was on the road in the base year gradually being 
replaced by cleaner vehicles through fleet turnover, but in this case 
they would not be influenced by any growth in VMT or trips. This 
emissions estimate would reflect a ceiling on the attainment emissions 
that should be allowed to occur under the statute as interpreted by the 
Court because it shows what would happen under a scenario in which no 
offsetting TCSs or TCMs have yet been put in place and VMT and trips 
are held constant during the period from the area's base year to its 
attainment year. This represents a ``VMT offset ceiling'' scenario. 
These two hypothetical status quo estimates are necessary steps in 
identifying the target level of emissions from which states would 
determine whether further TCMs or TCSs, beyond those that have been 
adopted and implemented in reality, would need to be adopted and 
implemented in order to fully offset any increase in emissions due 
solely to VMT and trips identified in the ``no action'' scenario.
    Finally, the state would present the emissions that are actually 
expected to occur in the area's attainment year after taking into 
account reductions from all enforceable TCSs and TCMs that in reality 
were put in place after the baseline year. This estimate would be based 
on the VMT and trip levels expected to occur in the attainment year 
(i.e., the VMT and trip levels from the first estimate) and all of the 
TCSs and TCMs expected to be in place and for which the SIP will take 
credit in the area's attainment year, including any TCMs and TCSs put 
in place since the base year. This represents the ``projected actual'' 
attainment year scenario. If this emissions estimate is less than or 
equal to the emissions ceiling that was established in the second of 
the attainment year calculations, the TCSs or TCMs for the attainment 
year would be sufficient to fully offset the identified hypothetical 
growth in emissions.
    If, instead, the estimated projected actual attainment year 
emissions are still greater than the ceiling which was established in 
the second of the attainment year emissions calculations, even after 
accounting for post-baseline year TCSs and TCMs, the state would need 
to adopt and implement additional TCSs or TCMs to further offset the 
growth in emissions. The additional TCSs or TCMs would need to bring 
the actual emissions down to at least the ``had VMT and trips held 
constant'' ceiling estimated in the second of the attainment year 
calculations, in order to meet the VMT offset requirement of section 
182(d)(1)(A) as interpreted by the Court.

[[Page 28160]]

2. Summary of State's Submission
    CARB prepared the VMT emissions offset demonstration for the South 
Coast for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, and the District included it in 2016 
AQMP as appendix VI-E (``VMT Offset Demonstration''). In addition to 
the VMT emissions offset demonstration, appendix VI-E of the 2016 AQMP 
includes two attachments--one listing the TCSs adopted by CARB since 
1990 and another listing the TCMs developed by SCAG (as of September 
2014) in the South Coast region that are subject to timely 
implementation reporting requirements.
    For the VMT emissions offset demonstration, CARB used EMFAC2014, 
the latest EPA-approved motor vehicle emissions model for California. 
The EMFAC2014 model estimates the on-road emissions from two combustion 
processes (i.e., running exhaust and start exhaust) and four 
evaporative processes (i.e., hot soak, running losses, diurnal losses, 
and resting losses). The EMFAC2014 model combines trip-based VMT data 
from the regional transportation planning agency (i.e., SCAG), starts 
data based on household travel surveys, and vehicle population data 
from the California Department of Motor Vehicles. These sets of data 
are combined with corresponding emission rates to calculate emissions.
    Emissions from running exhaust, start exhaust, hot soak, and 
running losses are a function of how much a vehicle is driven. 
Emissions from these processes are thus directly related to VMT and 
vehicle trips, and CARB included emissions from them in the 
calculations that provide the basis for the South Coast VMT emissions 
offset demonstration. CARB did not include emissions from resting loss 
and diurnal loss processes in the analysis because such emissions are 
related to vehicle population, not to VMT or vehicle trips, and thus 
are not part of ``any growth in emissions from growth in vehicle miles 
traveled or numbers of vehicle trips in such area'' under CAA section 
182(d)(1)(A).
    The South Coast VMT emissions offset demonstration uses 2012 as the 
``base year.'' The base year for VMT emissions offset demonstration 
purposes should generally be the same base year used for nonattainment 
planning purposes. In section III.A of this document, the EPA is 
proposing to approve the 2012 base year inventory for the South Coast 
for the purposes of the 2008 ozone NAAQS, and thus, CARB's selection of 
2012 as the base year for the South Coast VMT emissions offset 
demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS is appropriate.
    The South Coast VMT emissions offset demonstration also includes 
the previously described three different attainment year scenarios 
(i.e., no action, VMT offset ceiling, and projected actual). The 2016 
AQMP provides a demonstration of attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS in 
the South Coast by the applicable attainment date, based on the 
controlled 2031 emissions inventory. As described in section III.D of 
this document, the EPA is proposing to approve the attainment 
demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS for the South Coast, and thus, 
we find CARB's selection of year 2031 as the attainment year for the 
VMT emissions offset demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS to be 
acceptable.
    Table 14 summarizes the relevant distinguishing parameters for each 
of the emissions scenarios and shows CARB's corresponding VOC emissions 
estimates for the demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.

                                   Table 14--VMT Emissions Offset Inventory Scenarios and Results for 2008 Ozone NAAQS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                        VMT                           Starts                 Controls      VOC Emissions
                        Scenario                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                               Year          1000/day          Year          1000/day          Year             tpd
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Year...............................................            2012         380,248            2012          69,789            2012             138
No Action...............................................            2031         408,964            2031          78,894            2012              64
VMT Offset Ceiling......................................            2031         380,248            2012          69,789            2012              61
Projected Actual........................................            2031         408,964            2031          78,894            2031              40
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2016 AQMP, Appendix VI-E.

    For the base year scenario, CARB ran the EMFAC2014 model for the 
applicable base year (i.e., 2012 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS) using VMT 
and starts data corresponding to that year. As shown in Table 14, CARB 
estimates the South Coast VOC emissions at 138 tpd in 2012.
    For the ``no action'' scenario, CARB first identified the on-road 
motor vehicle control programs (i.e., TCSs or TCMs) put in place since 
the base year and incorporated into EMFAC2014 and then ran EMFAC2014 
with the VMT and starts data corresponding to the applicable attainment 
year (i.e., 2031 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS) without the emissions 
reductions from the on-road motor vehicle control programs put in place 
after the base year. Thus, the no action scenario reflects the 
hypothetical VOC emissions that would occur in the attainment year in 
the South Coast if the CARB had not put in place any additional TCSs or 
TCMs after 2012. As shown in Table 14, CARB estimates the ``no action'' 
South Coast VOC emissions at 64 tpd in 2031.
    For the ``VMT offset ceiling'' scenario, CARB ran the EMFAC2014 
model for the attainment years but with VMT and starts data 
corresponding to base year values. Like the no action scenario, the 
EMFAC2014 model was adjusted to reflect the VOC emissions levels in the 
attainment years without the benefits of the post-base-year on-road 
motor vehicle control programs. Thus, the VMT offset ceiling scenario 
reflects hypothetical VOC emissions in the South Coast if CARB had not 
put in place any TCSs or TCMs after the base year and if there had been 
no growth in VMT or vehicle trips between the base year and the 
attainment year.
    The hypothetical growth in emissions due to growth in VMT and trips 
can be determined from the difference between the VOC emissions 
estimates under the ``no action'' scenario and the corresponding 
estimates under the ``VMT offset ceiling'' scenario. Based on the 
values in Table 14, the hypothetical growth in emissions due to growth 
in VMT and trips in the South Coast would have been 3 tpd (i.e., 64 tpd 
minus 61 tpd). This hypothetical difference establishes the level of 
VMT growth-caused emissions that need to be offset by the combination 
of post-baseline year TCMs and TCSs and any necessary additional TCMs 
and TCSs.
    For the ``projected actual'' scenario calculation, CARB ran the 
EMFAC2014 model for the attainment year with VMT

[[Page 28161]]

and starts data at attainment year values and with the full benefits of 
the relevant post-baseline year motor vehicle control programs. For 
this scenario, CARB included the emissions benefits from TCSs and TCMs 
put in place since the base year. The most significant measures 
reducing VOC emissions during the 2012 to 2031 timeframe include the 
Advanced Clean Cars program, ZEV requirements, and more stringent on-
board diagnostics requirements.\136\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \136\ Attachment V-E-1 to appendix VI of the 2016 AQMP includes 
a list of the State's transportation control strategies adopted by 
CARB since 1990. Also see EPA final action on CARB mobile source SIP 
submittals at 81 FR 39424 (June 16, 2016), 82 FR 14446 (March 21, 
2017), and 83 FR 23232 (May 18, 2018).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As shown in Table 14, the projected actual attainment-year VOC 
emissions is 40 tpd. CARB then compared this value against the 
corresponding VMT offset ceiling value to determine whether additional 
TCMs or TCSs would need to be adopted and implemented in order to 
offset any increase in emissions due solely to VMT and trips. Because 
the projected actual emissions are less than the corresponding VMT 
offset ceiling emissions, CARB concluded that the demonstration shows 
compliance with the VMT emissions offset requirement and that there are 
sufficient adopted TCSs and TCMs to offset the growth in emissions from 
the growth in VMT and vehicle trips in the South Coast for the 2008 
ozone NAAQS.
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
    Based on our review of revised South Coast VMT emissions offset 
demonstration in appendix VI-E of the 2016 AQMP, we find CARB's 
analysis to be consistent with our August 2012 guidance and consistent 
with the emissions and vehicle activity estimates found elsewhere in 
the 2016 AQMP. We agree that CARB and SCAG have adopted sufficient TCSs 
and TCMs to offset the growth in emissions from growth in VMT and 
vehicle trips in the South Coast for the purposes of the 2008 ozone 
NAAQS. As such, we propose to approve the South Coast VMT emissions 
offset demonstration element of the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP as 
meeting the requirements of CAA section 182(d)(1)(A).

G. Contingency Measures

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
    Under the CAA, 8-hour ozone nonattainment areas classified under 
subpart 2 as Moderate or above must include in their SIPs contingency 
measures consistent with sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9). Contingency 
measures are additional controls or measures to be implemented in the 
event the area fails to make reasonable further progress or to attain 
the NAAQS by the attainment date. The SIP should contain trigger 
mechanisms for the contingency measures, specify a schedule for 
implementation, and indicate that the measure will be implemented 
without significant further action by the state or the EPA.\137\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \137\ 70 FR 71612 (November 29, 2005). See also 2008 Ozone SRR, 
80 FR 12264, at 12285 (March 6, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Neither the CAA nor the EPA's implementing regulations establish a 
specific level of emissions reductions that implementation of 
contingency measures must achieve, but the EPA's 2008 Ozone SRR 
reiterates the EPA's policy that contingency measures should provide 
for emissions reductions approximately equivalent to one year's worth 
progress, amounting to reductions of 3 percent of the baseline 
emissions inventory for the nonattainment area.\138\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \138\ 80 FR 12264 at 12285 (March 6, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    It has been the EPA's longstanding interpretation of section 
172(c)(9) that states may rely on federal measures (e.g., federal 
mobile source measures based on the incremental turnover of the motor 
vehicle fleet each year) and local measures already scheduled for 
implementation that provide emissions reductions in excess of those 
needed to provide for RFP or expeditious attainment. The key is that 
the statute requires that contingency measures provide for additional 
emissions reductions that are not relied on for RFP or attainment and 
that are not included in the RFP or attainment demonstrations as 
meeting part or all of the contingency measure requirements. The 
purpose of contingency measures is to provide continued emissions 
reductions while the plan is being revised to meet the missed milestone 
or attainment date.
    The EPA has approved numerous SIPs under this interpretation--i.e., 
SIPs that use as contingency measures one or more federal or local 
measures that are in place and provide reductions that are in excess of 
the reductions required by the attainment demonstration or RFP 
plan,\139\ and there is case law supporting the EPA's interpretation in 
this regard.\140\ However, in Bahr v. EPA, the Ninth Circuit rejected 
the EPA's interpretation of CAA section 172(c)(9) as allowing for early 
implementation of contingency measures.\141\ The Ninth Circuit 
concluded that contingency measures must take effect at the time the 
area fails to make RFP or attain by the applicable attainment date, not 
before.\142\ Thus, within the geographic jurisdiction of the Ninth 
Circuit, states cannot rely on early-implemented measures to comply 
with the contingency measure requirements under CAA section 172(c)(9) 
and 182(c)(9).\143\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \139\ See, e.g., 62 FR 15844 (April 3, 1997) (direct final rule 
approving an Indiana ozone SIP revision); 62 FR 66279 (December 18, 
1997) (final rule approving an Illinois ozone SIP revision); 66 FR 
30811 (June 8, 2001) (direct final rule approving a Rhode Island 
ozone SIP revision); 66 FR 586 (January 3, 2001) (final rule 
approving District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia ozone SIP 
revisions); and 66 FR 634 (January 3, 2001) (final rule approving a 
Connecticut ozone SIP revision).
    \140\ See, e.g., LEAN v. EPA, 382 F.3d 575 (5th Cir. 2004) 
(upholding contingency measures that were previously required and 
implemented where they were in excess of the attainment 
demonstration and RFP SIP).
    \141\ Bahr v. EPA, 836 F.3d 1218, at 1235-1237 (9th Cir. 2016).
    \142\ Id. at 1235-1237.
    \143\ The Bahr v. EPA decision involved a challenge to an EPA 
approval of contingency measures under the general nonattainment 
area plan provisions for contingency measures in CAA section 
172(c)(9), but, given the similarity between the statutory language 
in section 172(c)(9) and the ozone-specific contingency measure 
provision in section 182(c)(9), we find that the decision affects 
how both sections of the Act must be interpreted.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    With respect to Extreme ozone nonattainment areas, CAA section 
182(e)(5) allows the agency to exercise discretion in approving Extreme 
area attainment plans that rely, in part, on the future development of 
new control technologies or improvements of existing control 
technologies, where certain conditions are met. Among the conditions to 
qualify for reliance on section 182(e)(5) is the requirement that the 
state submit enforceable commitments to timely develop and adopt 
contingency measures to be implemented if the anticipated future 
technologies do not achieve planned reductions. Contingency measures 
submitted to comply with commitments made for the purposes of section 
182(e)(5) differ in substance from contingency measures submitted to 
comply with sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) in that the former 
addresses a potential failure to meet an emissions reduction target 
whereas the latter address a potential failure to meet an ambient 
concentration target (i.e., in this case, the 2008 ozone NAAQS). 
However, in our 2008 Ozone SRR, we recognized the inherent difficulty 
in identifying specific contingency measures to be triggered upon a 
failure to attain the NAAQS by the applicable attainment date in 
Extreme nonattainment areas that rely on the new technology provisions 
in section 182(e)(5) to demonstrate attainment, and thus, we allow 
states to submit, for such

[[Page 28162]]

areas, enforceable commitments to develop and adopt contingency 
measures meeting the requirements of section 182(e)(5) to satisfy the 
requirements for both attainment contingency measures in CAA sections 
172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9).\144\ These enforceable commitments must 
obligate the state to submit the required contingency measures (i.e., 
contingency measures to be triggered if the emissions reduction target 
under section 182(e)(5) is not met and contingency measures to be 
triggered if the area fails to attain the NAAQS by the applicable 
attainment date) to the EPA no later than three years before any 
applicable implementation date, in accordance with section 
182(e)(5).\145\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \144\ 80 FR 12264, at 12285-12286 (March 6, 2015).
    \145\ Id.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Summary of the State's Submission
    The District and CARB had largely prepared the 2016 AQMP prior to 
the Bahr v. EPA decision, and thus, it relies solely upon surplus 
emissions reductions from already implemented control measures in the 
RFP milestone years to demonstrate compliance with the RFP milestone 
contingency measure requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(9) and 
182(c)(9).\146\ Because the attainment demonstration for the 2008 ozone 
NAAQS relies on CAA section 182(e)(5) reductions in the 2016 State 
Strategy, CARB has submitted a commitment to develop, adopt, and submit 
contingency measures by 2028 if the section 182(e)(5) measures do not 
achieve planned reductions.\147\ More recently, in a letter from CARB 
dated May 20, 2019, CARB clarified that the commitment to submit 
contingency measures as needed to address shortfalls in the emissions 
reductions anticipated by new technology measures under section 
182(e)(5) also includes a commitment to submit by 2028 contingency 
measures to be triggered upon a failure to attain the 2008 ozone NAAQS 
in the South Coast by the applicable attainment date as required under 
sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9).\148\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \146\ 2016 AQMP, 4-51 and 4-52; appendix VI-C, pages V-C-1--V-C-
4.
    \147\ CARB Board Resolution 7-18, 9.
    \148\ Letter dated May 20, 2019, from Michael Benjamin, CARB, to 
Amy Zimpfer, EPA Region IX.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In the 2018 SIP Update, CARB revises the RFP demonstration for the 
2008 ozone NAAQS for the South Coast and recalculates the extent of 
surplus emission reductions (i.e., surplus to meeting the RFP milestone 
requirement for a given milestone year) in the milestone years. In 
light of the Bahr v. EPA decision, however, the 2018 SIP Update does 
not rely on the surplus or incremental emissions reductions to comply 
with the contingency measures requirements of sections 172(c)(9) and 
182(c)(9) but, to provide context in which to review contingency 
measures for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, the 2018 SIP Update documents the 
extent to which future baseline emissions would provide surplus 
emissions reductions beyond those required to meet applicable RFP 
milestones.\149\ More specifically, the 2018 SIP Update identifies one 
year's worth of RFP as approximately 16 tpd and estimates surplus 
NOX reductions as ranging from approximately 170 tpd to 250 
tpd depending upon the particular RFP milestone year.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \149\ 2018 SIP Update, chapter IX, tables IX-2, IX-5 and IX-6.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    To comply with sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9), as interpreted in 
the Bahr v. EPA decision, the state must develop, adopt and submit a 
contingency measure to be triggered upon a failure to meet RFP 
milestones or failure to attain the NAAQS by the applicable attainment 
date regardless of the extent to which already-implemented measures 
would achieve surplus emissions reductions beyond those necessary to 
meet RFP milestones and beyond those predicted to achieve attainment of 
the NAAQS. Therefore, to fully address the contingency measure 
requirement for the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast, the District 
has committed to develop, adopt and submit a contingency measure to 
CARB in sufficient time to allow CARB to submit the contingency measure 
as a SIP revision to the EPA within 12 months of the EPA's final 
conditional approval of the contingency measure element of the 2016 
South Coast Ozone SIP.\150\ The District's specific commitment is to 
modify one (or more) existing rule, or adopt a new rule or rules, that 
would include a more stringent requirement or remove an exemption if 
the EPA determines that the South Coast nonattainment area has missed 
an RFP milestone for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. More specifically, the 
District has identified a list of 12 different rules that the District 
is reviewing for inclusion of potential contingency provisions. The 
rules and the types of revisions under review for contingency purposes 
include: New Rule 1109.1 (NOX Emission Reductions From 
Refinery Equipment) (contingency to remove an exemption (e.g., low-use 
exemption) for a specific refinery equipment category); existing Rule 
1110.2 (Emissions from Gaseous- and Liquid-Fueled Engines) (contingency 
to remove exemptions for orchard wind machines powered by internal 
combustion engines and agricultural stationary engines); and existing 
Rule 1117 (Emissions of Oxides of Nitrogen from Glass Melting Furnaces) 
(contingency to remove exemptions for idling furnaces and furnaces used 
in the melting of glass for the production of fiberglass exclusively), 
among others.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \150\ Letters dated January 29, 2019 and May 2, 2019, from Wayne 
Nastri, SCAQMD Executive Officer, to Richard Corey, Executive 
Officer, CARB.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CARB has attached the District's commitment to revise a rule to a 
letter committing to adopt and submit the revised rule to the EPA 
within one year of the EPA's final action on the contingency measure 
element of the 2016 South Coast Ozone Plan.\151\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \151\ Letters dated February 13, 2019, from Richard Corey, 
Executive Officer, CARB, to Mike Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA 
Region IX, and May 20, 2019, from Michael Benjamin, CARB, to Amy 
Zimpfer, EPA Region IX.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
    Sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) require contingency measures to 
address potential failure to achieve RFP milestones or failure to 
attain the NAAQS by the applicable attainment date. For the purposes of 
evaluating the contingency measure element of the 2016 South Coast 
Ozone SIP, we find it useful to distinguish between contingency 
measures to address potential failure to achieve RFP milestones (``RFP 
contingency measures'') and contingency measures to address potential 
failure to attain the NAAQS (``attainment contingency measures'').
    With respect to the RFP contingency measure requirement, we have 
reviewed the surplus emissions estimates in each of the RFP milestone 
years, as shown in the 2018 SIP Update, and find that the calculations 
are correct. We therefore agree that the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP 
provides surplus emissions reductions well beyond those necessary to 
demonstrate RFP in all of the RFP milestone years. While such surplus 
emissions reductions in the RFP milestone years do not represent 
contingency measures themselves, we believe they are relevant in 
evaluating the adequacy of RFP contingency measures that are submitted 
(or will be submitted) to meet the requirements of sections 172(c)(9) 
and 182(c)(9).
    In this case, the District and CARB have committed to develop, 
adopt and submit a revised District rule or rules, or a new rule or 
rules, as an RFP contingency measure within one year of our final 
action on the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP. The specific types of

[[Page 28163]]

revisions the District has committed to make, such as increasing the 
stringency of an existing requirement or removing an exemption, upon an 
RPF milestone failure would comply with the requirements in CAA 
sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) because they would be undertaken if 
the area fails to meet an RFP milestone and would take effect without 
significant further action by the state or the EPA.
    Next, we considered the adequacy of the RFP contingency measure 
(once adopted and submitted) from the standpoint of the magnitude of 
emissions reductions the measure would provide (if triggered). Neither 
the CAA nor the EPA's implementing regulations for the ozone NAAQS 
establish a specific amount of emissions reductions that implementation 
of contingency measures must achieve, but we generally expect that 
contingency measures should provide for emissions reductions 
approximately equivalent to one year's worth of RFP, which, for ozone, 
amounts to reductions of 3 percent of the baseline emissions inventory 
for the nonattainment area. For the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South 
Coast, one year's worth of RFP is approximately 16 tpd of VOC or 
NOX reductions.\152\
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    \152\ The 2011 baseline for NOX and VOC is 534.3 tpd 
and 522.0 tpd, respectively, as shown in tables IX-1 and IX-2 of the 
2018 SIP Update. Three percent of the baselines is 16.0 tpd of 
NOX and 15.7 tpd of VOC, respectively.
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    In this instance, because of the nature of the District's intended 
contingency measure (i.e., to modify an existing rule or rules to 
increase the stringency or to remove an exemption), the District did 
not quantify the potential additional emission reductions from its 
contingency measure commitment, but we believe that it is unlikely that 
the RFP contingency measure, once adopted and submitted, will achieve 
one year's worth of RFP (i.e., 16.0 tpd of NOX or VOC) given 
the types of rule revisions under consideration and the magnitude of 
emissions reductions constituting one year's worth of RFP. However, the 
2018 SIP Update provides the larger SIP planning context in which to 
judge the adequacy of the to-be-submitted District contingency measure 
by calculating the surplus emissions reductions estimated to be 
achieved in the RFP milestone years. More specifically, Table IX-2 in 
the 2018 SIP Update identified surplus NOX reductions in the 
various RFP milestone years. For the South Coast, the estimates of 
surplus NOX reductions vary for each RFP milestone year but 
range from a minimum of 31.5 percent in milestone year 2017 to 47.2 
percent in milestone year 2023.\153\ These represent values that far 
eclipse one year's worth of RFP (approximately 16 tpd or 3 percent) and 
that provide the basis to conclude that the risk of any failure to 
achieve an RFP milestone for the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast is 
very low. The surplus reflects already implemented regulations and is 
primarily the result of vehicle turnover, which refers to the ongoing 
replacement by individuals, companies, and government agencies of 
older, more polluting vehicles and engines with newer vehicles and 
engines designed to meet more stringent CARB mobile source emission 
standards. In light of the extent of surplus NOX emissions 
reductions in the RFP milestone years, the emissions reductions from 
the District contingency measure would be sufficient to meet the 
contingency measure requirements of the CAA with respect to RFP 
milestones, even though the measure would likely achieve emissions 
reductions lower than the EPA normally recommends for reductions from 
such a measure.
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    \153\ 2018 SIP Update, Table IX-2.
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    With respect to the attainment contingency measure requirement, we 
are proposing to approve the attainment demonstration for the 2008 
Ozone NAAQS in the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP that relies in part on 
new technology provisions under CAA section 182(e)(5). In connection 
with the proposed approval of the attainment demonstration, we are 
proposing to approve CARB's commitment to develop, adopt and submit 
contingency measures by 2028 (three years prior to the attainment year) 
if new technology measures do not achieve planned reductions. CARB has 
clarified that the commitment to submit contingency measures as 
necessary to address shortfalls in emissions reductions from new 
technology measures also includes a commitment to submit attainment 
contingency measures.
    The EPA allows states to submit, for Extreme areas, enforceable 
commitments to develop and adopt contingency measures meeting the 
requirements of section 182(e)(5) to satisfy the requirements for both 
attainment contingency measures in CAA sections 172(c)(9) and 
182(c)(9).\154\ We find that CARB's commitment, as clarified by CARB to 
include attainment contingency measures, provides an adequate basis to 
defer submittal of attainment contingency measures for the South Coast 
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS until 2028.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \154\ 80 FR 12264, at 12285-12286 (March 6, 2015)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    For the these reasons, we propose to approve conditionally the RFP 
contingency measure element of the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP as 
supplemented by commitments from the District and CARB to adopt and 
submit an additional contingency measure, to meet the RFP contingency 
measure requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9). Our 
proposed approval is conditional because it relies upon commitments to 
adopt and submit a specific enforceable contingency measure (i.e., a 
revised or new District rule or rules with contingent provisions). 
Conditional approvals are authorized under CAA section 110(k)(4) of the 
CAA. We also propose to find that CARB's commitment to submit 
attainment contingency measures provides an adequate basis to defer 
submittal of attainment contingency measures meeting the requirements 
in CAA sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) until 2028.

H. Clean Fuels or Advanced Control Technology for Boilers

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
    Section 182(e)(3) of the CAA provides that SIPs for Extreme 
nonattainment areas require each new, modified, and existing electric 
utility and industrial and commercial boiler that emits more than 25 
tpy of NOX to either burn as its primary fuel natural gas, 
methanol, or ethanol (or a comparably low-polluting fuel), or use 
advanced control technology, such as catalytic control technologies or 
other comparably effective control methods.
    Additional guidance on this requirement is provided in the General 
Preamble at 13523. In the General Preamble, the EPA states that, for 
the purposes of CAA section 182(a)(3), a boiler should generally be 
considered as any combustion equipment used to produce steam and 
generally does not include a process heater that transfers heat from 
combustion gases to process streams.\155\ In addition, boilers with 
rated heat inputs less than 15 million British thermal units (MMBtu) 
per hour that are oil- or gas-fired may generally be considered de 
minimis and exempt from these requirements because it is unlikely that 
they will exceed the 25 tpy NOX emission limit.\156\
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    \155\ See General Preamble, 57 FR 13498 at 13523 (April 16, 
1992).
    \156\ Id at 13524.
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2. Summary of the State's Submission
    The 2016 AQMP discusses compliance with the requirements of CAA 
section 182(e)(3) by reference to

[[Page 28164]]

District Rules 2002 (``Allocations for Oxides of Nitrogen 
(NOX) and Oxides of Sulfur (SOX)''), 1146 
(``Emissions of Oxides of Nitrogen from Industrial, Institutional, and 
Commercial Boilers, Steam Generators, and Process Heaters'') and 1303 
(``Requirements'').\157\ In the 2016 AQMP, the District notes that, 
under District Rule 1303, a new or modified boiler emitting at least 10 
tpy of NOX or VOC is required to employ best available 
control technology (BACT), which, under the District's rule, must be at 
least as stringent as the lowest achievable emission rate (LAER) as 
defined in CAA section 171(3).
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    \157\ See tables 6-1 and 6-2 of chapter 6 of the 2016 AQMP.
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    In February 2019, the District further clarified that, with respect 
to sources subject to the District's Regulation XX (``Regional Clean 
Air Incentives Market'' or ``RECLAIM''), compliance with CAA section 
182(e)(3) is provided through District Rule 2004 (``Requirements''), 
paragraph (h), which requires each new, modified and existing electric 
utility and industrial and commercial boiler emitting more than 25 tpy 
per year of NOX to burn clean fuel or use advanced control 
technology.\158\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \158\ See letter dated February 13, 2019, from Philip Fine, 
Ph.D., Deputy Executive Officer, SCAQMD, to Elizabeth Adams, 
Director, Air Division, EPA Region IX.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The District's February 2019 letter also provided analysis 
reviewing emission reports from boilers in its annual emissions 
reporting system from 2015, 2016, and 2017. This analysis found that 
there was only one unit emitting more than 25 tpy of NOX not 
already meeting the clean fuel requirement: The Los Angeles County 
Sanitation District Landfill in Puente Hills. This facility is subject 
to NOX emissions limits in District Rule 1146.
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
    Currently, within the South Coast, boilers that are subject to the 
requirements of CAA section 182(e)(3) fall into two broad categories: 
(1) Boilers that are subject to the District's RECLAIM regulation, and 
(2) boilers that are not subject to RECLAIM. Boilers that are subject 
to RECLAIM must comply with District Rule 2004, paragraph (h), that 
sets forth requirements that essentially mirror those set forth in CAA 
section 182(e)(3). Thus we agree with the District that Rule 2004(h) 
satisfies the SIP requirement in CAA section 182(e)(3) with respect to 
boilers included in the RECLAIM program. We most recently approved Rule 
2004 into the SIP at 73 FR 38122 (July 3, 2008).
    As to boilers that are not subject to RECLAIM, for the reasons 
given below, we agree with the District that the requirements are met 
through implementation of District Rule 1146 for existing boilers and 
through implementation of District Regulation XIII (``New Source 
Review''), specifically, Rule 1303, for new and modified boilers. We 
approved District Rules 1146 and 1303 into the SIP at 79 FR 57442 
(September 25, 2014) and 61 FR 64291 (December 4, 1996), respectively.
    First, we have reviewed Rule 1146 and find that it applies to 
boilers of equal to or greater than 5 MMBtu per hour heat rate input 
capacity used in all industrial, institutional, and commercial 
operations with the exception of RECLAIM facilities.\159\ That is, it 
regulates large boilers in the South Coast not participating in the 
RECLAIM program. Rule 1146 requires compliance with specified numeric 
limits that are based on the type of unit, and it allows for combustion 
of fuel that may not necessarily be natural gas, methanol, ethanol, or 
other comparably low polluting fuel. The emission limits for these 
other fuels, includes units fired on digester or landfill gas, are 15 
ppm by volume and 25 ppm by volume, respectively. According to the 
District's analysis as noted above, the only unit firing on these fuels 
that also must comply with the requirements of CAA section 182(e)(3) is 
the Los Angeles County Sanitation District Landfill in Puente Hills, 
which combusts recovered landfill gas and must achieve the limits for 
landfill gas-fired units as required in District Rule 1146.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \159\ We note that the applicability section of Rule 1146 lists 
certain categories of sources that are not subject to its 
requirements in addition to RECLAIM facilities, such as boilers used 
by electric utilities to generate electricity and large boilers used 
in petroleum refineries. However, the types of boilers that are 
categorically excepted by Rule 1146 are in fact included in the 
RECLAIM program in the South Coast and thus are subject to Rule 
2004(h), which provides for compliance with CAA section 182(e)(3).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Second, we have reviewed District Rule 1303 and find that it 
provides for denial of a permit to construct for any new or modified 
source that results in an emission increases of any nonattainment 
pollutants unless BACT is employed for the new or modified source.\160\ 
The District defines BACT in essentially the same way as the CAA 
section 171(3) defines LAER.\161\ District Rule 1303 thus ensures that 
new or modified boilers in the South Coast that are not subject to 
RECLAIM comply with the requirements in CAA section 182(e)(3).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \160\ District Rule 1303(a).
    \161\ District Rule 1302 (``Definitions''), paragraph (f) 
(``Best Available Control Technology'').
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    For the reasons given above, we find that the requirements for new, 
modified and existing boilers in approved District Rules 1303, 1146 and 
2004 satisfy the clean fuel or advanced control technology for boilers 
requirement in CAA section 182(e)(3), and based on this finding, we 
propose to approve the clean fuels for boilers element of the 2016 
South Coast Ozone SIP.

I. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for Transportation Conformity

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
    Section 176(c) of the CAA requires federal actions in nonattainment 
and maintenance areas to conform to the SIP's goals of eliminating or 
reducing the severity and number of violations of the NAAQS and 
achieving timely attainment of the standards. Conformity to the SIP's 
goals means that such actions will not: (1) Cause or contribute to 
violations of a NAAQS, (2) worsen the severity of an existing 
violation, or (3) delay timely attainment of any NAAQS or any interim 
milestone.
    Actions involving Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) or Federal 
Transit Administration (FTA) funding or approval are subject to the 
EPA's transportation conformity rule, codified at 40 CFR part 93, 
subpart A. Under this rule, MPOs in nonattainment and maintenance areas 
coordinate with state and local air quality and transportation 
agencies, the EPA, the FHWA, and the FTA to demonstrate that an area's 
regional transportation plans and transportation improvement programs 
conform to the applicable SIP. This demonstration is typically done by 
showing that estimated emissions from existing and planned highway and 
transit systems are less than or equal to the motor vehicle emissions 
budgets (MVEBs or ``budgets'') contained in all control strategy SIPs. 
Budgets are generally established for specific years and specific 
pollutants or precursors. Ozone plans should identify budgets for on-
road emissions of ozone precursors (NOX and VOC) in the area 
for each RFP milestone year and the attainment year, if the plan 
demonstrates attainment.\162\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \162\ 40 CFR 93.102(b)(2)(i).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    For budgets to be approvable, they must meet, at a minimum, the 
EPA's adequacy criteria (40 CFR 93.118(e)(4)). To meet these 
requirements, the budgets must be consistent with the attainment and 
RFP requirements and reflect all of the motor vehicle control measures

[[Page 28165]]

contained in the attainment and RFP demonstrations.\163\
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    \163\ 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4)(iii), (iv) and (v). For more 
information on the transportation conformity requirements and 
applicable policies on MVEBs, please visit our transportation 
conformity website at: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/stateresources/transconf/index.htm.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The EPA's process for determining adequacy of a budget consists of 
three basic steps: (1) Providing public notification of a SIP 
submission; (2) providing the public the opportunity to comment on the 
budget during a public comment period; and, (3) making a finding of 
adequacy or inadequacy.\164\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \164\ 40 CFR 93.118(f)(2).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Summary of the State's Submission
    The 2016 AQMP included budgets for the 2018, 2021, 2024, 2027, and 
2030 RFP milestone years, and the 2031 attainment year. The budgets for 
2018, 2021, 2024, 2027 and 2030 were derived from the 2012 RFP baseline 
year and the associated RFP milestone years. As such, the budgets are 
affected by the South Coast II decision vacating the alternative 
baseline year provision, and therefore, the EPA has not previously 
acted on the budgets.
    On December 5, 2018, CARB submitted the 2018 SIP Update, which 
revises the RFP demonstration consistent with the South Coast II 
decision (i.e., by using a 2011 RFP baseline year) and identifies new 
budgets for the South Coast for VOC and NOX for each updated 
RFP milestone year through 2030 and for the attainment year, 2031. The 
budgets in this 2018 SIP Update replace all of the budgets contained in 
the 2016 AQMP.
    Like the budgets in the 2016 AQMP, the budgets in the 2018 SIP 
Update were calculated using EMFAC2014, CARB's latest approved version 
of the EMFAC model for estimating emissions from on-road vehicles 
operating in California, and are rounded up to the nearest whole 
number. However, the budgets in the 2018 SIP Update reflect updated VMT 
estimates from the 2016-2040 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable 
Communities Strategy, Amendment 2, adopted by SCAG in July 2017. Given 
the use of updated travel data and CARB's convention of rounding 
emissions up to the nearest whole number, there are some differences 
between the budgets and the emissions inventories in the 2018 SIP 
Update for the RFP demonstration and in the 2016 AQMP for the 
attainment demonstration, but the differences are quite small and do 
not impact the RFP or attainment demonstrations.\165\ The conformity 
budgets for NOX and VOC in the 2018 SIP Update for the South 
Coast are provided in Table 15 below.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \165\ For instance, the 2016 AQMP estimates that 2031 on-road 
vehicle emissions (summer planning inventory) would be 49.50 tpd for 
VOC and 64.99 tpd for NOX. See attachment B to appendix 
III of the 2016 AQMP. The corresponding budgets from the 2018 SIP 
Update are 50 tpd for VOC and 66 tpd for NOX.

 Table 15--Transportation Conformity Budgets for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS in
                             the South Coast
                     [Summer planning inventory, tpd]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Budget year                  VOC                      NOX
------------------------------------------------------------------------
              2020                       80                     141
              2023                       68                      89
              2026                       60                      77
              2029                       54                      69
              2031                       50                      66
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Table IX-3 of the 2018 SIP Update.

3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
    As part of our review of the approvability of the budgets in the 
2018 SIP Update, we have evaluated the budgets using our adequacy 
criteria in 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4) and (5). We will complete the adequacy 
review concurrent with our final action on the 2016 South Coast Ozone 
SIP. The EPA is not required under its transportation conformity rule 
to find budgets adequate prior to proposing approval of them.\166\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \166\ Under the transportation conformity regulations, the EPA 
may review the adequacy of submitted motor vehicle emission budgets 
simultaneously with the EPA's approval or disapproval of the 
submitted implementation plan. 40 CFR 93.118(f)(2).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As documented in Table 4 of section IV of the EPA's TSD for this 
proposal, we find that the budgets in the 2018 SIP Update for the South 
Coast meet each adequacy criterion. We have completed our detailed 
review of the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP and are proposing herein to 
approve the SIP's attainment and RFP demonstrations. We have also 
reviewed the budgets in the 2018 SIP Update and found that they are 
consistent with the attainment and RFP demonstrations for which we are 
proposing approval, are based on control measures that have already 
been adopted and implemented, and meet all other applicable statutory 
and regulatory requirements including the adequacy criteria in 40 CFR 
93.1118(e)(4) and (5). Therefore, we are proposing to find adequate and 
approve the 2020, 2023, 2026, 2029 and 2031 MVEBs in the 2018 SIP 
Update (and shown in Table 15, above). If we finalize our adequacy 
determination and approval of the budgets for the 2008 ozone NAAQS in 
the 2018 SIP Update, as proposed, then they will replace the budgets 
for the 1997 ozone NAAQS from the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP that we 
previously found adequate and approved for use in transportation 
conformity determinations.\167\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \167\ We found adequate and approved the MVEBs from the 2007 
South Coast Ozone SIP for the 1997 ozone NAAQS at 77 FR 12674, 12693 
(March 1, 2012). The MVEBs in the 2018 SIP Update for the 2008 ozone 
NAAQS are lower than the corresponding MVEBs approved for the 1997 
ozone NAAQS. For instance, the current MVEBs of 108 tpd for VOC and 
185 tpd for NOX for 2020, and 99 tpd of VOC and 140 tpd 
of NOX for 2023, would be replaced by MVEBs of 80 tpd for 
VOC and 141 tpd for NOX in 2020, and 68 tpd for VOC and 
89 tpd for NOX in 2023.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Under our transportation conformity rule, as a general matter, once 
budgets are approved, they cannot be superseded by revised budgets 
submitted for the same CAA purpose and the same period of years 
addressed by the previously approved SIP until the EPA approves the 
revised budgets as a SIP revision. In other words, as a general matter, 
such approved budgets cannot be superseded by revised budgets found 
adequate, but rather only through approval of the revised budgets, 
unless the EPA specifies otherwise in its approval of a SIP by limiting 
the duration of the approval to last only until subsequently submitted 
budgets are found adequate.\168\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \168\ 40 CFR 93.118(e)(1).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In this instance, CARB has requested that we limit the duration of 
our approval of the budgets in the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP only 
until the effective date of the EPA's adequacy finding for any 
subsequently submitted budgets.\169\ Generally, we will consider a 
state's request to limit an approval of a MVEB only if the request 
includes the following elements: \170\
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    \169\ CARB's request to limit the duration of the approval of 
the South Coast ozone MVEB is contained in letters dated December 5, 
2018, from Richard Corey, Executive Officer, California Air 
Resources Board, to Mike Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 
IX, and May 20, 2019, from Michael Benjamin, California Air 
Resources Board, to Amy Zimpfer, EPA Region IX.
    \170\ 67 FR 69141 (November 15, 2002), limiting our prior 
approval of MVEB in certain California SIPs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

     An acknowledgement and explanation as to why the budgets 
under consideration have become outdated or deficient;
     A commitment to update the budgets as part of a 
comprehensive SIP update; and
     A request that the EPA limit the duration of its approval 
to the time when new budgets have been found to be adequate for 
transportation conformity purposes.
    CARB's request includes an explanation for why the budgets have

[[Page 28166]]

become, or will become, outdated or deficient. In short, CARB has 
requested that we limit the duration of the approval of the budgets in 
anticipation, in the near term, of approval by the EPA of EMFAC2017, an 
updated version of the model used for the budgets in the 2016 South 
Coast Ozone SIP. EMFAC2017 updates vehicle mix and emissions data of 
the currently approved version of the model, EMFAC2014.
    Preliminary calculations by CARB indicate that EMFAC2017-derived 
budgets for the South Coast will exceed the corresponding EMFAC2014-
derived budgets in the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP. Upon approval of 
EMFAC2017, CARB explains that the budgets from the 2016 South Coast 
Ozone SIP, for which we are proposing approval in today's action, will 
become outdated and will need to be revised using EMFAC2017 within the 
grace period established in our approval of EMFAC2017 to provide for a 
new conformity determination for the South Coast regional 
transportation plan and program. In addition, CARB states that, without 
the ability to replace the budgets using the budget adequacy process, 
the benefits of using the updated data may not be realized for a year 
or more after the updated SIP (with the EMFAC2017-derived budgets) is 
submitted, due to the length of the SIP approval process. We find that 
CARB's explanation for limiting the duration of the approval of the 
budgets is appropriate and provides us with a reasonable basis on which 
to limit the duration of the approval of the budgets.
    We note that CARB has not committed to update the budgets as part 
of a comprehensive SIP update, but as a practical matter, CARB must 
submit a SIP revision that includes updated demonstrations as well as 
the updated budgets to meet the adequacy criteria in 40 CFR 
93.118(e)(4);\171\ and thus, we do not need a specific commitment for 
such a plan at this time. For the reasons provided above, and in light 
of CARB's explanation for why the budgets will become outdated and 
should be replaced upon an adequacy finding for updated budgets, we 
propose to limit the duration of our approval of the budgets in the 
2016 South Coast Ozone SIP until new budgets have been found adequate.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \171\ Under 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4), the EPA will not find a budget 
in a submitted SIP to be adequate unless, among other criteria, the 
budgets, when considered together with all other emissions sources, 
are consistent with applicable requirements for RFP and attainment. 
40 CFR 93.118(e)(4)(iv).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

J. General Conformity Budgets

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
    Section 176(c) of the CAA requires federal actions in nonattainment 
and maintenance areas to conform to the SIP's goals of eliminating or 
reducing the severity and number of violations of the NAAQS and 
achieving timely attainment of the standards. Conformity to the SIP's 
goals means that such actions will not: (1) Cause or contribute to 
violations of a NAAQS, (2) worsen the severity of an existing 
violation, or (3) delay timely attainment of any NAAQS or any interim 
milestone.
    Section 176(c)(4) of the CAA establishes the framework for general 
conformity. The EPA first promulgated general conformity regulations in 
November 1993.\172\ The EPA revised the general conformity regulations 
on April 5, 2010 (75 FR 17254). The general conformity regulations 
ensure that federal actions not covered by the transportation 
conformity rule will not interfere with the SIP and encourage 
consultation between the federal agency and the state or local air 
pollution control agencies before or during the environmental review 
process, as well as public participation (e.g., notification of and 
access to federal agency conformity determinations and review of 
individual federal actions).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \172\ 40 CFR part 51, subpart W, and 40 CFR part 93, subpart B.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The general conformity regulations provide three phases: 
Applicability analysis, conformity determination, and review process. 
The applicability analysis phase under 40 CFR 93.153 is used to find if 
a federal action requires a conformity determination for a specific 
pollutant. If a conformity determination is needed, federal agencies 
can use one of several methods to show that the project conforms to the 
SIP. In an area without a SIP, a federal action may be shown to 
``conform'' by demonstrating there will be no net increase in emissions 
in the nonattainment or maintenance area from the federal action. In an 
area with a SIP, conformity to the applicable SIP can be demonstrated 
in one of several ways. For actions where the direct and indirect 
emissions exceed the rates in 40 CFR 93.153(b), the federal action can 
include mitigation measures to offset the emission increases from the 
federal action or can show that the action will conform by meeting any 
of the following requirements:
     Showing that the net emission increases caused by an 
action are included in the SIP,
     documenting that the state agrees to include the emission 
increases in the SIP,
     offsetting the action's emissions in the same or nearby 
area of equal or greater classification, or
     providing an air quality modeling demonstration in some 
circumstances.\173\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \173\ 40 CFR 93.158; and SCAQMD Rule 1901 (``General 
Conformity''), approved at 64 FR 19916 (April 23, 1999).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The general conformity regulations at 40 CFR 93.161 allow state and 
local air quality agencies working with federal agencies with large 
facilities (e.g., commercial airports, ports, and large military bases) 
that are subject to the general conformity regulations to develop and 
adopt an emissions budget for those facilities in order to facilitate 
future conformity determinations. Such a budget, referred to as a 
facility-wide emission budget, may be used by federal agencies to 
demonstrate conformity as long as the total facility-wide budget level 
identified in the SIP is not exceeded.
    According to 40 CFR 93.161, the state or local agency responsible 
for implementing and enforcing the SIP can develop and adopt an 
emissions budget to be used for demonstrating conformity under 40 CFR 
93.158(a)(1). The requirements include the following: (1) The facility-
wide budget must be for a set time period; (2) the budget must cover 
the pollutants or precursors of the pollutants for which the area is 
designated nonattainment or maintenance; (3) the budgets must be 
specific about what can be emitted on an annual or seasonal basis; (4) 
the emissions from the facility along with all other emissions in the 
area must not exceed the total SIP emissions budget for the 
nonattainment or maintenance area; (5) specific measures must be 
included to ensure compliance with the facility-wide budget, such as 
periodic reporting requirements or compliance demonstrations when the 
federal agency is taking an action that would otherwise require a 
conformity determination; (6) the budget must be submitted to the EPA 
as a SIP revision; and (7) the SIP revision must be approved by the 
EPA. Having or using a facility-wide emissions budget does not preclude 
a federal agency from demonstrating conformity in any other manner 
allowed by the conformity rule.
2. Summary of the State's Submission
    The 2016 AQMP addresses general conformity budgets beginning on 
page VI-D-1 of Appendix VI and on pages III-2-85 through II-2-88 of 
Appendix

[[Page 28167]]

III. To streamline the general conformity process for federal projects 
and to facilitate general conformity determinations, the 2016 AQMP 
establishes VOC and NOX general conformity budgets of 2.0 
tpd of NOX and 0.5 tpd of VOC on an annual basis from 2017 
to 2030, and budgets of 0.5 tpd of NOX and 0.2 tpd VOC in 
2031. These general conformity budgets are included in the ``set-
aside'' account added to baseline emissions in tables 9, 10 and 11 in 
section III.D.2.c of this document. The general conformity budgets in 
the 2016 AQMP are not set aside for specific facilities per se but were 
developed in the anticipation of the construction and operation of 
certain airport development projects in the South Coast that are 
expected over the next decade.
    Under the 2016 AQMP, emissions from general conformity projects 
will be tracked by the District tracking system and debited from this 
set-aside budget on a first-come-first-served basis until the budget 
has been exhausted. Any unused portions will not be carried forward 
into the following year. Once the budget is exhausted, federal projects 
can still demonstrate conformity using other provisions in the 
conformity rule.
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
    We propose to approve the general conformity budgets in the 2016 
AQMP of NOX and VOC of 2.0 tpd of NOX and 0.5 tpd 
of VOC (on an annual basis) from 2017 to 2030, and 0.5 tpd of 
NOX and 0.2 tpd VOC in 2031, as meeting the requirements of 
CAA section 176(c) and 40 CFR 93.161. We find that the general 
conformity budgets in the 2016 AQMP: Are established for set time 
period; cover both precursors of ozone; are precisely quantified in 
terms of tpd (on an annual basis); and, along with all other emissions 
in the South Coast, are consistent with the attainment demonstrations 
for the 1-hour, 1997 and 2008 ozone NAAQS. We also find that the 2016 
AQMP provides a procedure (i.e., the tracking system) through which the 
District will ensure compliance with the budgets.
    If we finalize our approval of these budgets, federal agencies can 
use these budgets to demonstrate that their projects conform to the SIP 
through a letter from the State and District confirming that the 
project emissions are accounted for in the SIP's general conformity 
budgets. The District will be responsible for tracking emissions from 
all projects against the budgets. Once the budgets are used, future 
federal projects will need to demonstrate conformity using a different 
method. Any federal projects that emit criteria pollutants or pollutant 
precursors other than those for which general conformity budgets are 
established will still need to demonstrate conformity for those 
pollutants or precursors.

K. Other Clean Air Act Requirements Applicable to Extreme Ozone 
Nonattainment Areas

    In addition to the SIP requirements discussed in the previous 
sections, the CAA includes certain other SIP requirements applicable to 
Extreme ozone nonattainment areas, such as the South Coast. We describe 
these provisions and their current status below.
1. Enhanced Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance Programs
    Section 182(c)(3) of the CAA requires states with ozone 
nonattainment areas classified under subpart 2 as Serious or above to 
implement an enhanced motor vehicle I/M program in those areas. The 
requirements for those programs are provided in CAA section 182(c)(3) 
and 40 CFR part 51, subpart S.
    Consistent with the 2008 Ozone SRR, no new I/M programs are 
currently required for nonattainment areas for the 2008 ozone 
NAAQS.\174\ The EPA previously approved California's I/M program in the 
South Coast as meeting the requirements of the CAA and applicable EPA 
regulations for enhanced I/M programs.\175\
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    \174\ 2008 Ozone SRR, 80 FR 12264, at 12283 (March 6, 2015), and 
section 3.6 of Chapter 3 of the 2016 Ozone Plan.
    \175\ 75 FR 38023 (July 1, 2010).
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2. New Source Review Rules
    Section 182(a)(2)(C) of the CAA requires states to develop SIP 
revisions containing permit programs for each of its ozone 
nonattainment areas. The SIP revisions are to include requirements for 
permits in accordance with CAA sections 172(c)(5) and 173 for the 
construction and operation of each new or modified major stationary 
source for VOC and NOX anywhere in the nonattainment 
area.\176\ The 2008 Ozone SRR includes provisions and guidance for 
nonattainment new source review (NSR) programs.\177\ The EPA has 
previously approved the District's NSR rules into the SIP based in part 
on a conclusion that the rules adequately addressed the NSR 
requirements specific to Extreme areas.\178\ On December 13, 2018, the 
EPA approved the District's 2008 ozone certification that its NSR 
program previously approved into the SIP is adequate to meet the 
requirements for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.\179\
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    \176\ See also CAA sections 182(e).
    \177\ 80 FR 12264 (March 6, 2015).
    \178\ On December 4, 1996 (61 FR 64291), the EPA approved 
SCAQMD's NSR rules (the District's Regulation XIII) for the South 
Coast as satisfying the NSR requirements in title I, part D of the 
CAA for Extreme ozone nonattainment areas. See also 64 FR 13514 
(March 19, 1999), 71 FR 35157 (June 19, 2006), 77 FR 31200 (May 25, 
2012), and 80 FR 24821 (May 1, 2015).
    \179\ 83 FR 64026 (December 13, 2018).
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3. Clean Fuels Fleet Program
    Sections 182(c)(4)(A) and 246 of the CAA require California to 
submit to the EPA for approval measures to implement a Clean Fuels 
Fleet Program. Section 182(c)(4)(B) of the CAA allows states to opt-out 
of the federal clean-fuel vehicle fleet program by submitting a SIP 
revision consisting of a program or programs that will result in at 
least equivalent long-term reductions in ozone precursors and toxic air 
emissions.
    In 1994, CARB submitted a SIP revision to the EPA to opt-out of the 
federal clean-fuel fleet program. The submittal included a 
demonstration that California's low-emissions vehicle program achieved 
emissions reductions at least as large as would be achieved by the 
federal program. The EPA approved the SIP revision to opt-out of the 
federal program on August 27, 1999.\180\ There have been no changes to 
the federal Clean Fuels Fleet program since the EPA approved the 
California SIP revision to opt-out of the federal program, and thus, no 
corresponding changes to the SIP are required. Thus, we find that the 
California SIP revision to opt-out of the federal program, as approved 
in 1999, meets the requirements of CAA sections 182(c)(4)(A) and 246 
for South Coast for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
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    \180\ 64 FR 46849 (August 27, 1999).
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4. Gasoline Vapor Recovery
    Section 182(b)(3) of the CAA requires states to submit a SIP 
revision by November 15, 1992, that requires owners or operators of 
gasoline dispensing systems to install and operate gasoline vehicle 
refueling vapor recovery (``Stage II'') systems in ozone nonattainment 
areas classified as Moderate and above. California's ozone 
nonattainment areas implemented Stage II vapor recovery well before the 
passage of the CAA Amendments of 1990.\181\
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    \181\ General Preamble, 57 FR 13498 at 13514 (April 16, 1992).
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    Section 202(a)(6) of the CAA requires the EPA to promulgate 
standards requiring motor vehicles to be equipped with onboard 
refueling vapor recovery (ORVR) systems. The EPA promulgated

[[Page 28168]]

the first set of ORVR system regulations in 1994 for phased 
implementation on vehicle manufacturers, and since the end of 2006, 
essentially all new gasoline-powered light and medium-duty vehicles are 
ORVR-equipped.\182\ Section 202(a)(6) also authorizes the EPA to waive 
the SIP requirement under CAA section 182(b)(3) for installation of 
Stage II vapor recovery systems after such time as the EPA determines 
that ORVR systems are in widespread use throughout the motor vehicle 
fleet. Effective May 16, 2012, the EPA waived the requirement of CAA 
section 182(b)(3) for Stage II vapor recovery systems in ozone 
nonattainment areas regardless of classification.\183\ Thus, a SIP 
submittal meeting CAA section 182(b)(3) is not required for the 2008 
ozone NAAQS.
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    \182\ 77 FR 28772, at 28774 (May 16, 2012).
    \183\ See 40 CFR 51.126(b).
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    While a SIP submittal meeting CAA section 182(b)(3) is not required 
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, under California State law (i.e., Health and 
Safety Code section 41954), CARB is required to adopt procedures and 
performance standards for controlling gasoline emissions from gasoline 
marketing operations, including transfer and storage operations. State 
law also authorizes CARB, in cooperation with local air districts, to 
certify vapor recovery systems, to identify defective equipment and to 
develop test methods. CARB has adopted numerous revisions to its vapor 
recovery program regulations and continues to rely on its vapor 
recovery program to achieve emissions reductions in ozone nonattainment 
areas in California.
    In the South Coast, the installation and operation of CARB-
certified vapor recovery equipment is required and enforced by SCAQMD 
Rules 461 (``Gasoline Transfer and Dispensing'') and 462 (``Organic 
Liquid Loading''). These rules were most recently approved into the SIP 
on April 11, 2013, and July 21, 1999, respectively.\184\
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    \184\ 78 FR 21542 and 64 FR 39037.
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5. Enhanced Ambient Air Monitoring
    Section 182(c)(1) of the CAA requires that all ozone nonattainment 
areas classified as Serious or above implement measures to enhance and 
improve monitoring for ambient concentrations of ozone, NOX, 
and VOC, and to improve monitoring of emissions of NOX and 
VOC. The enhanced monitoring network for ozone is referred to as the 
photochemical assessment monitoring station (PAMS) network. The EPA 
promulgated final PAMS regulations on February 12, 1993.\185\
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    \185\ 58 FR 8452 (February 12, 1993).
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    On November 10, 1993, CARB submitted to the EPA a SIP revision 
addressing the PAMS network for six ozone nonattainment areas in 
California, including the South Coast, to meet the enhanced monitoring 
requirements of CAA section 182(c)(1) and the PAMS regulations. The EPA 
determined that the PAMS SIP revision met all applicable requirements 
for enhanced monitoring and approved the PAMS submittal into the 
California SIP.\186\
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    \186\ 82 FR 45191 (September 28, 2017).
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    The 2016 AQMP discusses compliance with the CAA section 182(c)(1) 
enhanced monitoring requirements in terms of the District's ``Annual 
Air Quality Monitoring Network Plan (July 2016)'' (ANP).\187\ The 
District's 2016 ANP describes the steps taken to address the 
requirements of section 182(c)(1), includes descriptions of the PAMS 
program and provides additional details about the PAMS network.\188\ 
The EPA has approved the District's PAMS network as part of our annual 
approval of the District's ANP.\189\
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    \187\ 2016 AQMP, Table 6-2, page 6-17.
    \188\ 2016 ANP, 13-15, 28 and appendix A, 8. Starting in 2007, 
the EPA's monitoring rules at 71 FR 61236 (October 17, 2006) 
required the submittal and EPA action on ANPs. SCAQMD's 2016 ANP can 
be found in the docket for today's action.
    \189\ Letter dated October 31, 2016, from Gwen Yoshimura, EPA 
Region IX to Matt Miyasoto, Deputy Executive Officer, SCAQMD, 
approving the 2016 South Coast ANP.
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    Prior to 2006, the EPA's ambient air monitoring regulations in 40 
CFR part 58 (``Ambient Air Quality Surveillance'') set forth specific 
SIP requirements (see former 40 CFR 52.20). In 2006, the EPA 
significantly revised and reorganized 40 CFR part 58.\190\ Under 
revised 40 CFR part 58, SIP revisions are no longer required; rather, 
compliance with EPA monitoring regulations is established through 
review of required annual monitoring network plans.\191\ The 2008 Ozone 
SRR made no changes to these requirements.\192\ As such, based on our 
review and approval of the 2016 ANP for South Coast, we find that the 
2016 AQMP adequately addresses the enhanced monitoring requirements 
under CAA section 182(c)(1), and we propose to approve that portion of 
the plan.
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    \190\ 71 FR 61236 (October 17, 2006).
    \191\ 40 CFR 58.2(b) now provides ``The requirements pertaining 
to provisions for an air quality surveillance system in the SIP are 
contained in this part.''
    \192\ The 2008 ozone SRR addresses PAMS-related requirements at 
80 FR 12264, at 12291 (March 6, 2015).
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6. CAA Section 185 Fee Program
    Sections 182(d)(3) and 185 of the CAA require that the SIP for each 
Severe and Extreme ozone nonattainment area provide that, if the area 
fails to attain by its applicable attainment date, each major 
stationary source of VOC and NOX located in the area shall 
pay a fee to the state as a penalty for such failure for each calendar 
year beginning after the attainment date, until the area is 
redesignated as an attainment area for ozone. States are not yet 
required to submit a SIP revision that meets the requirements of CAA 
section 185 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.\193\
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    \193\ See 40 CFR 51.1117. For the South Coast, a section 185 SIP 
revision for the 2008 ozone NAAQS will be due on July 20, 2022.
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IV. Proposed Action

    For the reasons discussed in this notice, under CAA section 
110(k)(3), the EPA is proposing to approve as a revision to the 
California SIP the following portions of the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP 
submitted by CARB on April 27, 2017, December 5, 2018, and December 20, 
2018:
     Base year emissions inventory element in the 2016 AQMP as 
meeting the requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(3) and 182(a)(1) and 40 
CFR 51.1115 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS;
     RACM demonstration element in the 2016 AQMP as meeting the 
requirements of CAA section 172(c)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1112(c) for the 
2008 ozone NAAQS;
     Updated attainment demonstration element for the revoked 
1-hour ozone NAAQS in the 2016 AQMP and the 1-Hour Ozone Update as 
meeting the requirements of CAA section 182(c)(2)(A); \194\
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    \194\ Because the 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration in the 
1-Hour Ozone Update does not rely on advanced control technology 
measures under CAA section 182(e)(5), final approval of the 
attainment demonstration in the 1-Hour Ozone Update would fulfill 
CARB's commitment, in adopting the 2012 AQMP, to achieve by January 
1, 2022, aggregate emissions reductions from advanced control 
technology measures under CAA section 182(e)(5) or actual emission 
decreases that occur and to develop, adopt and submit contingency 
measures by 2019 if advanced control technology measures do not 
achieve planned reductions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

     Updated attainment demonstration element for the revoked 
1997 ozone NAAQS in the 2016 AQMP as meeting the requirements of CAA 
section 182(c)(2)(A);
     Attainment demonstration element for the 2008 ozone NAAQS 
in the 2016 AQMP as meeting the requirements of CAA section 
182(c)(2)(A) and 40 CFR 51.1108;

[[Page 28169]]

     SCAQMD's commitments in the 2016 AQMP and District 
Resolution 17-2 to adopt, submit, and implement certain defined 
measures, as listed in tables 4-2 and 4-4 of Chapter 4 in the 2016 
AQMP, and to achieve specific aggregate emission reductions (shown in 
tables 4-9 through 4-11 of the 2016 AQMP) by 2022, 2023 and 2031 for 
the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, 1997 ozone NAAQS and 2008 ozone NAAQS, 
respectively, and to substitute any other measures as necessary to make 
up any emission reduction shortfall; \195\
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    \195\ Final approval of SCAQMD's commitments in the 2016 AQMP 
would update the corresponding commitments made by the District in 
the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP for the 1997 ozone NAAQS and in the 
2012 AQMP for both the 1997 ozone NAAQS and the 1-hour ozone NAAQS.
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     CARB's commitments in the 2016 State Strategy and CARB 
Resolution 17-7 to bring to the CARB Board for consideration the list 
of proposed SIP measures outlined in the 2016 State Strategy and 
included in attachment A (to Resolution 17-7) according the schedule 
set forth in attachment A, and to achieve the aggregate emission 
reductions in the South Coast of 113 tpd of NOX and 50 to 51 
tpd of VOC by 2023 for the 1997 ozone NAAQS, and 111 tpd of 
NOX and 59 to 60 tpd of VOC by 2031 for the 2008 ozone 
NAAQS; \196\
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    \196\ Final approval of CARB's commitments in the 2016 State 
Strategy for the South Coast would update the corresponding 
commitments by CARB in the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP for the 1997 
ozone NAAQS.
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     The provisions in the 2016 State Strategy for the 
development of new technology measures for attainment of the 1997 ozone 
NAAQS and 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast pursuant to CAA section 
182(e)(5) and CARB's commitment in Resolution 17-8 to adopt and submit 
by 2028 contingency measures to be implemented if the new technology 
measures do not achieve the planned emissions reductions for the 2008 
ozone NAAQS, as well as additional attainment contingency measures 
meeting the requirements of CAA section 172(c)(9); \197\
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    \197\ For the purposes of the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP, CARB 
committed to develop, adopt and submit by 2020 contingency measures 
to be implemented if the new technologies do not achieve the planned 
emissions reductions for the 1997 ozone NAAQS, as well as additional 
attainment contingency measures meeting the requirements of CAA 
section 172(c)(9). The EPA approved that commitment at 77 FR 12674, 
12695 (March 1, 2012). CARB's pre-existing commitments with respect 
to section 182(e)(5) and section 172(c)(9) attainment contingency 
measures for the South Coast for the 1997 ozone NAAQS are not 
affected by today's proposed action on the 2016 South Coast Ozone 
SIP.
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     ROP demonstration element in the 2016 AQMP as meeting the 
requirements of CAA 182(b)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1110(a)(2) for the 2008 
ozone NAAQS;
     RFP demonstration element in the 2018 SIP Update as 
meeting the requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(2), 182(b)(1), and 
182(c)(2)(B), and 40 CFR 51.1110(a)(2)(ii) for the 2008 ozone NAAQS;
     VMT emissions offset demonstration element in the 2016 
AQMP as meeting the requirements of CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) and 40 CFR 
51.1102 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS;
     Clean fuels or advanced control technology for boilers 
element in the 2016 AQMP as meeting the requirements of CAA section 
182(e)(3) and 40 CFR 51.1102 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS;
     Motor vehicle emissions budgets in the 2018 SIP Update for 
the RFP milestone years of 2020, 2023, 2026, 2029, and the attainment 
year of 2031 (see Table 15) because they are consistent with the RFP 
and attainment demonstrations for the 2008 ozone NAAQS proposed for 
approval herein and meet the other criteria in 40 CFR 93.118(e);
     General conformity budgets of NOX and VOC of 
2.0 tpd of NOX and 0.5 tpd of VOC (on an annual basis) from 
2017 to 2030, and 0.5 tpd of NOX and 0.2 tpd VOC in 2031, as 
meeting the requirements of CAA section 176(c) and 40 CFR 93.161;
     Enhanced vehicle inspection and maintenance program 
element in the 2016 AQMP as meeting the requirements of CAA section 
182(c)(3) and 40 CFR 51.1102 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS;
     Clean fuels fleet program element in the 2016 AQMP as 
meeting the requirements of CAA sections 182(c)(4)(A) and 246 and 40 
CFR 51.1102 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS; and
     Enhanced monitoring element in the 2016 AQMP as meeting 
the requirements of CAA section 182(c)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1102 for the 
2008 ozone NAAQS.\198\
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    \198\ Regarding other applicable requirements for the 2008 ozone 
NAAQS in the South Coast, the EPA has previously approved SIP 
revisions that address the nonattainment area requirements for NSR 
and for implementation of RACT for the South Coast for the 2008 
ozone NAAQS. See 83 FR 64026 (December 13, 2018) (NSR) and 82 FR 
43850 (September 20, 2017) (RACT). SIP revisions for the South Coast 
addressing the penalty fee requirements under CAA sections 181(d)(4) 
and 185 are not yet due for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
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    With respect to the MVEBs, we are proposing to limit the duration 
of the approval of the MVEBs to last only until the effective date of 
the EPA's adequacy finding for any subsequently submitted budgets. We 
are doing so at CARB's request and in light of the benefits of using 
EMFAC2017-derived budgets prior to our taking final action on the 
future SIP revision that includes the updated budgets.
    We are also proposing, under CAA section 110(k)(3), to approve 
District Rule 301 (``Permitting and Associated Fees'') (paragraphs 
(e)(1)(A) and (B), (e)(2), (e)(5) and (e)(8)) based on the public draft 
version submitted to us on May 20, 2019, for parallel processing, as 
meeting the requirements of CAA section 182(a)(3)(B) and 40 CFR 51.1102 
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS; and
    Lastly, we are proposing, under CAA section 110(k)(4), to approve 
conditionally the contingency measure element of the 2016 South Coast 
Ozone SIP as meeting the requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(9) and 
182(c)(9) for RFP contingency measures. Our proposed approval is based 
on commitments by the District and CARB to supplement the element 
through submission, as a SIP revision (within one year of final 
conditional approval action), of a new or revised District rule or 
rules that would include a more stringent requirement or would remove 
an exemption if an RFP milestone is not met.\199\
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    \199\ Letter dated January 29, 2019, from Wayne Nastri, SCAQMD 
Executive Officer, to Richard Corey, CARB Executive Officer; and 
letter dated February 13, 2019, from Richard Corey, Executive 
Officer, CARB, to Mike Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 
IX. Also see letter dated May 2, 2019, from Wayne Nastri, SCAQMD 
Executive Officer, to Richard Corey, CARB Executive Officer; and 
letter dated May 20, 2019, from Michael Benjamin, CARB, to Amy 
Zimpfer, EPA Region IX.
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    The EPA is soliciting public comments on the issues discussed in 
this document. We will accept comments from the public on this proposal 
for the next 30 days and will consider comments before taking final 
action. With respect to District Rule 301 (paragraphs (e)(1)(A) and 
(B), (e)(2), (e)(5) and (e)(8)), in addition to consideration of public 
comments, we will not take final action until the District completes 
its public review and adoption process and until CARB submits the final 
adopted version of the relevant portions of the District rule to the 
EPA for approval as a revision to the California SIP.

V. Incorporation by Reference

    In this action, the EPA is proposing to include in a final EPA rule 
regulatory text that includes incorporation by reference. In accordance 
with requirements of 1 CFR 51.5, the EPA is proposing to incorporate by 
reference portions of District Rule 301 regarding emissions statement 
requirements discussed in section III.B of this

[[Page 28170]]

preamble. The EPA has made, and will continue to make, these materials 
available through www.regulations.gov and at the EPA Region IX Office 
(please contact the person identified in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION 
CONTACT section of this preamble for more information).

VI. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

    Under the Clean Air Act, the Administrator is required to approve a 
SIP submission that complies with the provisions of the Act and 
applicable federal regulations. 42 U.S.C. 7410(k); 40 CFR 52.02(a). 
Thus, in reviewing SIP submissions, the EPA's role is to approve state 
choices, provided that they meet the criteria of the Clean Air Act. 
Accordingly, this proposed action merely proposes to approve, or 
conditionally approve, state plans as meeting federal requirements and 
does not impose additional requirements beyond those imposed by state 
law. For that reason, this proposed action:
     Is not a ``significant regulatory action'' subject to 
review by the Office of Management and Budget under Executive Orders 
12866 (58 FR 51735, October 4, 1993) and 13563 (76 FR 3821, January 21, 
2011);
     Is not an Executive Order 13771 (82 FR 9339, February 2, 
2017) regulatory action because SIP approvals are exempted under 
Executive Order 12866;
     Does not impose an information collection burden under the 
provisions of the Paperwork Reduction Act (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.);
     Is certified as not having a significant economic impact 
on a substantial number of small entities under the Regulatory 
Flexibility Act (5 U.S.C. 601 et seq.);
     Does not contain any unfunded mandate or significantly or 
uniquely affect small governments, as described in the Unfunded 
Mandates Reform Act of 1995 (Pub. L. 104-4);
     Does not have Federalism implications as specified in 
Executive Order 13132 (64 FR 43255, August 10, 1999);
     Is not an economically significant regulatory action based 
on health or safety risks subject to Executive Order 13045 (62 FR 
19885, April 23, 1997);
     Is not a significant regulatory action subject to 
Executive Order 13211 (66 FR 28355, May 22, 2001);
     Is not subject to requirements of Section 12(d) of the 
National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act of 1995 (15 U.S.C. 272 
note) because application of those requirements would be inconsistent 
with the Clean Air Act; and
     Does not provide the EPA with the discretionary authority 
to address disproportionate human health or environmental effects with 
practical, appropriate, and legally permissible methods under Executive 
Order 12898 (59 FR 7629, February 16, 1994).
    In addition, the SIP is not approved to apply on any Indian 
reservation land or in any other area where the EPA or an Indian tribe 
has demonstrated that a tribe has jurisdiction. In those areas of 
Indian country, the proposed rule does not have tribal implications and 
will not impose substantial direct costs on tribal governments or 
preempt tribal law as specified by Executive Order 13175 (65 FR 67249, 
November 9, 2000).

List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52

    Environmental protection, Air pollution control, Incorporation by 
reference, Intergovernmental relations, Nitrogen dioxide, Ozone, 
Reporting and recordkeeping requirements, Volatile organic compounds.

    Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.

    Dated: May 22, 2019.
Michael Stoker,
Regional Administrator, Region IX.
[FR Doc. 2019-12176 Filed 6-14-19; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6560-50-P


