ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

40 CFR Part 52

[EPA-R09-OAR-2008-0677; FRL-]

Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans;

State of California; 2003 State Strategy and 2003 South Coast Plan for
One-Hour Ozone and Nitrogen Dioxide

AGENCY: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

ACTION: Proposed rule.

SUMMARY: EPA is proposing to approve one state implementation plan (SIP)
revision, and to approve in part and to disapprove in part a second SIP
revision, submitted by the California Air Resources Board to provide for
attainment of the one-hour ozone standard and maintenance of the
nitrogen dioxide standard in the Los Angeles-South Coast Air Basin. The
two SIP revisions include the 2003 State Strategy and the 2003 South
Coast SIP, both of which were submitted on January 9, 2004. 

With respect to the 2003 State Strategy, EPA is proposing to approve the
commitment by the State to develop and propose near-term defined
measures sufficient to achieve specific emissions reductions in the
South Coast and to continue implementation of an existing measure. With
respect to the 2003 South Coast SIP, EPA is proposing to approve certain
elements, and to disapprove other elements. The plan elements that are
proposed for disapproval are not required under the Clean Air Act
because they represent revisions to previously-approved SIP elements,
and thus, the disapprovals will not affect the requirements for the
State to have an approved SIP for these SIP elements. Therefore, the
disapprovals, if finalized, would not trigger sanctions clocks nor
EPA’s obligation to promulgate a Federal implementation plan.

EPA is proposing these actions under provisions of the Clean Air Act
regarding EPA action on SIP submittals and plan requirements for
nonattainment areas. 

DATE: Any comments must arrive by [Insert date 30 days from the date of
publication in the Federal Register].

ADDRESSES: Submit comments, identified by docket number
EPA-R09-OAR-2008-0677, by one of the following methods:

Federal eRulemaking Portal:   HYPERLINK "http://www.regulations.gov" 
www.regulations.gov .  Follow the on-line instructions.

E-mail: tax.wienke@epa.gov  GOTOBUTTON BM_3_  .

Mail or deliver: Marty Robin, Office of Air Planning (AIR-2), U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency Region IX, 75 Hawthorne Street, San
Francisco, CA 94105. 

Instructions: All comments will be included in the public docket without
change and may be made available online at   HYPERLINK
"http://www.regulations.gov"  www.regulations.gov , including any
personal information provided, unless the comment includes Confidential
Business Information (CBI) or other information whose disclosure is
restricted by statute. Information that you consider CBI or otherwise
protected should be clearly identified as such and should not be
submitted through   HYPERLINK "http://www.regulations.gov" 
www.regulations.gov  or e-mail.   HYPERLINK "http://www.regulations.gov"
 www.regulations.gov  is an “anonymous access” system, and EPA will
not know your identity or contact information unless you provide it in
the body of your comment. If you send e-mail directly to EPA, your
e-mail address will be automatically captured and included as part of
the public comment. If EPA cannot read your comment due to technical
difficulties and cannot contact you for clarification, EPA may not be
able to consider your comment. 

Docket: The index to the docket for this action is available
electronically at   HYPERLINK "http://www.regulations.gov" 
www.regulations.gov  and in hard copy at EPA Region IX, 75 Hawthorne
Street, San Francisco, California. While all documents in the docket are
listed in the index, some information may be publicly available only at
the hard copy location (e.g., copyrighted material), and some may not be
publicly available in either location (e.g., CBI). To inspect the hard
copy materials, please schedule an appointment during normal business
hours with the contact listed in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT
section below.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Wienke Tax, Air Planning Office
(AIR-2), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region IX, (520)
622-1622, tax.wienke@epa.gov  

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Throughout this document, “we,” “us”
and “our” refer to EPA.

Table of Contents

I. Summary of Today's Proposed Action

II. Background

A. Introduction

B. 1994 South Coast Ozone SIP and State Strategy

C. 1999 State Update to the South Coast Ozone SIP

D. 1997 South Coast AQMP and 1997/1999 South Coast Ozone SIP

E. 2003 State Strategy

F. 2003 South Coast SIP

III. Review of the 2003 State Strategy and 2003 South Coast SIP

A. Procedural Requirements

B. Base Year and Projected Baseline Emissions Inventory

C. Control Measures and Contingency Measures

1. State’s Defined Measures

2. District’s Near-Term Control Measures, Annual Emissions Reductions
Commitment, and Contingency Measure 

3. District’s Black Box Emissions Reduction Commitment

4. Black Box Emissions Reduction Assignment to the Federal Government 

D. Attainment Demonstration

E. Quantitative Milestones and Reasonable Further Progress (RFP)

F. Transportation Control Measures to Offset Growth in Motor Vehicle
Emissions

G. Nitrogen Dioxide Maintenance Demonstration

H. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets (MVEBs)

IV. Public Comment and Final Action

V. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews 

I. Summary of Today’s Proposed Action

In today’s action, under the Clean Air Act (CAA or “Act”), we are
proposing to approve one state implementation plan (SIP) revision, and
to approve in part and to disapprove in part, a second SIP revision,
submitted by the California Air Resources Board (ARB) to provide for
attainment of the one-hour ozone national ambient air quality standard
(NAAQS) and for maintenance of the nitrogen dioxide NAAQS in the Los
Angeles-South Coast Air Basin Area (South Coast). The two SIP revisions
include the Final 2003 State and Federal Strategy (“2003 State
Strategy”) and the 2003 revisions to the SIP for ozone and nitrogen
dioxide in the South Coast Air Basin (“2003 South Coast SIP”), both
of which were submitted by ARB on January 9, 2004. These SIP revisions
were developed in recognition of a need for additional emissions
reductions to attain the one-hour ozone NAAQS than had been planned for
in the late 1990s, and to establish new motor vehicle emissions budgets
(MVEBs) for transportation conformity.

With respect to the 2003 State Strategy, we are proposing to approve the
commitments by ARB to develop and propose for adoption 15 near-term
defined control measures, and the commitment by the California Bureau of
Automotive Repair to develop and propose one near-term defined control
measure sufficient to achieve specified emissions reductions in the
South Coast. We are also proposing to approve the continuation of the
existing SIP pesticide strategy assigned to the California Department of
Pesticide Regulation.

With respect to the 2003 South Coast SIP, we are proposing to approve
the base year and projected baseline emissions inventories, the South
Coast Air Quality Management District’s (District’s or SCAQMD’s)
commitment to adopt and implement near-term stationary and mobile source
control measures (with the exception of “FSS-05 - Mitigation Fee
Program for Federal Sources”) and commitment to achieve aggregate
emission reductions through a schedule of rule adoption and
implementation, the District’s contingency measure (“CTY-01 -
Accelerated Implementation of Control Measures”), the District’s
“black box” emission reduction commitment, the vehicle emissions
offset demonstration, and the nitrogen dioxide maintenance demonstration
and related motor vehicle emissions budgets (MVEBs).

Also, in connection with the 2003 South Coast SIP, we are proposing to
disapprove the District commitment to adopt one particular control
measure (“FSS-05-Mitigation Fee Program for Federal Sources”); the
“black box” emissions reduction assignment to EPA; the revised
rate-of-progress and attainment demonstrations; and the ozone MVEBs. 

The primary rationale for proposing approval of certain control measures
and the specific SIP elements described above is that they would
strengthen the SIP by adding to, or updating, SIP elements previously
approved by EPA. The reasons for proposing disapproval of the other
specified elements of the 2003 South Coast SIP include incorrect
rate-of-progress calculation methods and the withdrawal by ARB of the
state emissions reductions commitments in the 2003 State Strategy that
were relied upon in the 2003 South Coast SIP. No sanctions clocks or
Federal implementation plan (FIP) requirement would be triggered by our
disapprovals, if finalized, because the plan revisions that are the
subject of the proposed disapprovals represent revisions to
previously-approved SIP elements that EPA determined met the CAA
requirements, and thus, the revisions are not required under the Clean
Air Act. 

II. Background

A. Introduction

Ground-level ozone is formed when oxides of nitrogen (NOx), volatile
organic compounds (VOC), and oxygen react in the presence of sunlight,
generally at elevated temperatures. Strategies for reducing smog
typically require reductions in both VOC and NOx emissions.

Ozone causes serious health problems by damaging lung tissue and
sensitizing the lungs to other irritants. When inhaled, even at very low
levels, ozone can cause acute respiratory problems; aggravate asthma;
cause temporary decreases in lung capacity of 15 to 20 percent in
healthy adults, cause inflammation of lung tissue, lead to hospital
admissions and emergency room visits; and impair the body’s immune
system defenses, making people more susceptible to respiratory
illnesses, including bronchitis and pneumonia. Children are most at risk
from exposure to ozone because they breathe more air per pound of body
weight than adults; their respiratory systems are still developing and
thus more susceptible to environmental threats; and children exercise
outdoors more than adults in the high-ozone months of summer.

In 1979, under section 109 of the CAA, EPA established a primary,
health-based NAAQS for ozone: 0.12 parts per million (ppm) averaged over
a 1-hour period. See 44 FR 8220 (February 9, 1979). In 1997, EPA revised
the ozone NAAQS by establishing an 8-hour ozone NAAQS of 0.08 ppm. See
62 FR 38856 (July 18, 1997). Since submittal of the 2003 State Strategy
and 2003 South Coast SIP, EPA has revoked the 1-hour ozone NAAQS,
effective June 15, 2005, see 69 FR 23951 (April 30, 2004), and tightened
the 8-hour ozone NAAQS to 0.075 ppm, see 73 FR 16436 (March 27, 2008).
The nitrogen dioxide NAAQS is 0.053 ppm, annual average. See 40 CFR
50.11. 

Despite significant progress over the years, ozone concentrations in the
South Coast continue to be the highest in the country. Over the
2005-2007 period, the expected number of exceedances relative to the
now-revoked 1-hour ozone NAAQS is 13.3 days per year (at the Crestline
monitor), and the design value is 0.164 ppm (at Crestline). With respect
to the 8-hour ozone NAAQS, over the same period, the design value is
0.122 ppm. In contrast to ozone, concentrations of nitrogen dioxide
(NO2) in the South Coast continue to be well below the NO2 NAAQS. For
instance, in 2005, the highest annual concentrations measured in the
South Coast were less the 60 percent of the nitrogen dioxide NAAQS based
on data reported in the 2007 South Coast Air Quality Management District
(AQMP)(June 2007).

B. 1994 South Coast Ozone SIP and State Strategy 

The CAA was substantially amended in 1990 to establish new planning
requirements and attainment deadlines for the NAAQS, including 1-hour
ozone. Under section 107(d)(1)(C) of the Act, areas designated
nonattainment prior to enactment of the 1990 amendments, including the
South Coast, were designated nonattainment by operation of law. The
South Coast was classified as extreme nonattainment for 1-hour ozone,
with an attainment deadline no later than November 15, 2010. The South
Coast was also designated as “nonattainment” for nitrogen dioxide,
respirable particulate matter (PM10), and carbon monoxide (CO).

The District adopted an ozone plan on September 9, 1994, as part of the
1994 South Coast Air Quality Management Plan (“1994 South Coast
AQMP”). ARB supplemented the District plan with State measures and
submitted it as a revision to the California SIP on November 15, 1994.
On July 10, 1996, ARB submitted an extensive revision to the South Coast
control measure adoption schedule to adjust for slippage in the plan’s
initial implementation. On January 8, 1997 (62 FR 1150), we finalized
approval of the South Coast ozone plan, including the ozone portions of
the 1994 South Coast AQMP, as amended in 1996, and the State measures
(“1994 Ozone SIP”). The plan also contained “Federal measures,”
which the State wished us to adopt and implement in order to reduce
emissions from mobile sources. 

C. 1999 State Update to the South Coast Ozone SIP

On July 23, 1999 (64 FR 39923), we approved an update to the South Coast
portion of the 1994 Ozone SIP, reporting on implementation of ARB’s
control measures in the 1994 SIP and the contribution from Federal
mobile source controls undertaken as part of the Public Consultative
Process. We also updated our own commitment and approved a new ARB
commitment to adopt by December 31, 2001, control measures needed to
achieve any additional reductions which were determined to be
appropriate for ARB. Please consult the final approval document and our
proposed approval (64 FR 30276, June 7, 1999) for more details on the
update, the “Federal measures,” and the Public Consultative Process
on national mobile source measures.

D. 1997 South Coast AQMP and the 1997/1999 South Coast Ozone SIP

The South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD, or
“District”) adopted a completely revised plan on November 8, 1996
(“1997 South Coast AQMP”), and ARB submitted the revision on
February 5, 1997. The 1997 South Coast AQMP was not federally required
for ozone, but was adopted by the District to address, in a
comprehensive fashion, federal and state requirements for particulate
matter, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen dioxide, and state requirements
for an ozone plan update. The 1997 South Coast AQMP revised the
emissions inventory, modeling, and local control commitments in the
attainment demonstration, but did not revise the State SIP commitments
adopted in the 1994 Ozone SIP. The 1997 South Coast AQMP included a
maintenance plan and redesignation request for the nitrogen dioxide
NAAQS, and EPA approved the plan and redesignation request in 1998. See
63 FR 39747 (July 24, 1998). 

The District amended the ozone portion of the 1997 South Coast AQMP on
December 10, 1999 (“1999 South Coast AQMP Ozone Amendment”), and ARB
submitted the plan to us on February 4, 2000. We approved the ozone
portion of the 1997 South Coast AQMP, as amended in 1999, on April 10,
2000 (65 FR 18903), and refer to the amended plan as the 1997/1999 South
Coast Ozone SIP.

Specifically, in our April 2000 final rule, we approved the baseline and
projected emissions inventories and attainment demonstration as
contained in the 1997 South Coast AQMP, and we approved the following
elements in the 1999 South Coast AQMP Ozone Amendment: District
commitments to adopt and implement near-term and intermediate-term
control measures; the District’s commitment to adopt and implement
“black box” control measures; the District’s commitment to achieve
overall emissions reductions for the years 1999-2008; the District’s
commitment to implement those measures that had been adopted in
regulatory form between 1994 and 1999; the rate-of-progress plan for the
1999, 2002, 2005, 2008 and 2010 milestone years; the amendment to the
attainment demonstration in the 1997 South Coast AQMP for ozone; and the
motor vehicle emissions budgets. Upon the effective date of our approval
of the 1997/1999 South Coast Ozone SIP, this plan replaced and
superseded the 1994 Ozone SIP for the South Coast Air Basin with the
exception of the State control measures for mobile sources, consumer
products, and pesticides, and EPA’s commitment to take part in the
Public Consultative Process as discussed in the previous section of this
document.

E. 2003 State Strategy

On October 23, 2003, ARB adopted the Final 2003 State and Federal
Strategy for the California SIP (“2003 State Strategy”). The 2003
State Strategy consists of the Proposed 2003 State and Federal Strategy
for the California SIP (released August 25, 2003), as modified by ARB in
the resolution approving the strategy. The modifications to the proposed
strategy are set forth in attachment A to ARB Board Resolution 03-22.
The 2003 State Strategy identifies ARB’s regulatory agenda to reduce
ozone and particulate matter in California by 2010 and was submitted to
update and replace the State’s control measure commitments in the 1994
Ozone SIP, as modified in 1999 for the South Coast. 

As submitted, the 2003 State Strategy includes four components affecting
the South Coast: (1) State agency commitments to pursue 20 new defined
near-term control measures to reduce emissions from mobile sources and
consumer products, and to continue implementation of the existing SIP
commitment to reduce VOC emissions from pesticide use; (2) State agency
annual adoption commitments to achieve at least 50 tons per day (tpd)
VOC and 59 tpd NOx emissions reduction in the South Coast in 2010 from
these or other near-term measures; (3) ARB commitment to identify and
adopt strategies by 2008 to achieve an additional 97 tpd combined VOC
and NOx reductions in the South Coast through, in part, the evaluation
of 21 additional control concepts between 2004-2006 and adoption of
those found to be feasible as SIP measures on a specified schedule; and
(4) ARB’s “black box” commitment to reduce emissions in the South
Coast by 118-233 tpd of VOC and 0-159 tpd of NOx by 2010 for “black
box” emissions reductions. ARB submitted the 2003 State Strategy to us
on January 9, 2004. On February 18, 2004, EPA found the 2003 State
Strategy to be complete.

By letter dated February 13, 2008, ARB withdrew certain elements of the
2003 State Strategy that relate to the South Coast. Specifically, ARB
withdrew four specific defined near-term measures, the State agency
annual adoption commitments described above, the ARB commitment to
identify and adopt strategies by 2008 to achieve an additional 97 tpd
combined VOC and NOx reductions in the South Coast, and ARB’s “black
box” commitment described above. For the South Coast, the remaining
component of the 2003 State Strategy is the State agency commitments to
pursue 16 new defined near-term control measures (and to continue
implementation of the existing SIP commitment to reduce VOC emissions
from pesticide use). We are addressing the remaining commitments for the
South Coast in the 2003 State Strategy in today’s action.

F. 2003 South Coast SIP

On August 1, 2003, the District approved the 2003 South Coast Air
Quality Management Plan and submitted the final plan (“2003 South
Coast AQMP”) to ARB on October 15, 2003. The 2003 South Coast AQMP
includes revisions to the 1997 South Coast AQMP for PM10, CO, and NO2,
and revisions to the 1997/1999 South Coast Ozone SIP. Specifically, with
respect to the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, the 2003 South Coast AQMP updates the
emissions inventories, the local control measure element, including the
transportation control measures (TCMs) element, the ROP and attainment
demonstrations, and the motor vehicle emissions budgets. With respect to
NO2, the 2003 South Coast AQMP updates the maintenance plan and related
motor vehicle emissions budget. The ozone portion of the 2003 South
Coast AQMP relies on emission reduction commitments in the 2003 State
Strategy, described above, and assigns the Federal Government the
responsibility of achieving 18 tpd VOC and 68 tpd NOx by 2010 in the
South Coast, as the Federal Government’s share of the “black box”
strategy. 

The 2003 South Coast AQMP includes a primary attainment strategy (option
1) that sets emission targets based on reductions from local, State, and
federal elements but also includes an alternative strategy (option 2)
that excludes reductions from Federal sources and modifies the
attainment emission targets if EPA does not accept the District’s
primary attainment strategy. Under option 2, the 2003 South Coast AQMP
relaxes the NOx control target by 68 tpd NOx and assigns the 18 tpd
(assigned to the Federal Government under option 1) to ARB. 

On October 23, 2003, ARB adopted the 2003 South Coast AQMP, as modified
in ARB Resolution 03-23 (“2003 South Coast SIP”). In Resolution
03-23, ARB adopted a modified version of “option 1” by adopting a
backstop whereby, if EPA were to find the Federal assignment
unacceptable, the ARB obligates itself to cover the related 18 tpd VOC
and 68 tpd NOx emissions reductions as part of its “black box”
commitment. In Resolution 03-23, ARB also rejected one contingency
measure included in the AQMP (CTY-04 - “Enhanced Oxygenated Fuels
Content”), and modified the VOC and NOx MVEBs. 

On January 9, 2004, ARB submitted the 2003 South Coast SIP. On February
18, 2004, EPA found the 2003 South Coast AQMP to be complete. On March
11, 2004, we found the MVEBs in the 2003 South Coast SIP adequate for
transportation conformity purposes. See 69 FR 15325 (March 25, 2004).
Since then, the CO budgets in the 2003 South Coast SIP have been
superseded by final EPA approval of the 2005 South Coast CO Maintenance
Plan (discussed below), and the ozone budgets have been superseded by
EPA’s adequacy determination on 8-hour ozone budgets in the 2007 South
Coast SIP (see 73 FR 28110, May 15, 2008; as corrected on 73 FR 34837,
June 18, 2008).

To date, we have taken final action to approve the PM10 portion of the
2003 South Coast SIP, see 70 FR 69081 (November 14, 2005), but have not
taken action on any other portions of the plan. With respect to the CO
portion of the plan, while we have not taken action on the CO portion of
the 2003 South Coast SIP, we have taken action to approve a
later-submitted plan, the 2005 South Coast CO Maintenance Plan, and have
taken action to approve ARB’s redesignation request for the South
Coast to “attainment” for CO. See 72 FR 26718 (May 11, 2007). We
consider the submittal and approval of the CO maintenance plan and
redesignation request to supersede the CO portion of the 2003 South
Coast SIP and plan to take no further action on CO portion of the plan.
Today’s document addresses the remaining portions of the 2003 South
Coast SIP (i.e., the ozone and NO2 portions of the plan).

III. Review of the 2003 State Strategy and 2003 South Coast SIP

A. Procedural Requirements

CAA section 110(l) requires revisions to a SIP to be adopted by the
state after reasonable notice and public hearing. EPA has promulgated
specific requirements for SIP revisions in 40 CFR part 51, subpart F.

The ARB provided the requisite notice and public comment periods prior
to adoption of the 2003 State Strategy. Notices for a public hearing to
be held on September 24-25, 2003 (later postponed to October 23, 2003),
and for the availability of the Draft 2003 State Strategy, were
published on August 25, 2003. At its October 23, 2003 Board hearing, ARB
adopted the 2003 State Strategy as a revision to the California SIP, and
submitted the revision to EPA for approval on January 9, 2004.

The SCAQMD provided the requisite notice and public comment periods
prior to adoption of the 2003 South Coast AQMP. The Draft 2003 South
Coast AQMP was released for public comment on February 5, 2003, and
proposed modifications to the draft plan, as well as responses to
comments on the draft plan, were released for public comment in June
2003. Notices for five public hearings held on various dates in July
2003 and on August 1, 2003, and for the availability of the revised
Draft 2003 South Coast AQMP, were published on June 6, 2003. At the
August 1, 2003 Governing Board meeting, the District adopted the 2003
South Coast AQMP and submitted the plan to ARB shortly thereafter. ARB
adopted the plan, with certain modifications, as a revision to the
California SIP on October 23, 2003 in accordance with state law, and
submitted the revision to EPA for approval on January 9, 2004.

The SIP submittal packages for the 2003 State Strategy and the 2003
South Coast SIP include evidence of public notices and hearings, agency
responses to public comments, and evidence of District and ARB adoptions
as described above. Based on review of these materials, we find that the
State has met the procedural requirements of CAA section 110(l) and 40
CFR part 51, subpart F for submittal of the two SIP revisions.

B. Base Year and Projected Baseline Emissions Inventory

CAA sections 172(c)(3) and 182(a)(1) require nonattainment areas to
submit a comprehensive, accurate, and current inventory of actual
emissions from all sources, in accordance with guidance provided by the
EPA. The inventory is to represent emissions during the appropriate
season; for example, ozone precursor (VOC and NOx) inventories are to
represent summer weekday emissions. See EPA’s General Preamble for
implementation of title I of the CAA Amendments of 1990, 57 FR 13498
(April 16, 1992) (“General Preamble”), at 13502. EPA guidance for
1-hour ozone SIP emission inventories includes, in addition to the
General Preamble: “Procedures for the Preparation of Emission
Inventories for Carbon Monoxide and Precursors of Ozone, Volume I:
General Guidance for Stationary Sources,” EPA-450/4-91-016; and
“Procedures for Emission Inventory Preparation, Volume IV: Mobile
Sources,” EPA-450/5-91-026d Revised.

	In 2000, we approved the base and future year (summer season) emissions
inventories in the 1997 South Coast AQMP, as meeting the requirements of
CAA sections 172(c)(3) and 182(a)(1). See 65 FR 18903, at 18904 (April
10, 2000). In 1998, we approved the base and future year (winter season)
emissions inventories in the 1997 South Coast AQMP for the purposes of
the NO2 maintenance plan. See 63 FR 39747 (July 24, 1998). The 2003
South Coast AQMP contains revised base and future year emissions
inventories for ozone precursors, VOC and NOx (summer season), and for
NOx (winter season, for NO2 planning purposes). The District describes
the basis for the revisions in the inventories in chapter 3 of the 2003
South Coast AQMP. More detail is provided in appendix III of the plan. 

The emissions inventories in the 2003 South Coast AQMP reflect estimates
of emissions from numerous source subcategories within four major
categories of sources, i.e., point, area, off-road, and on-road. The
plan presents annual average day inventories, as well as planning
inventories (summer for ozone and winter for NO2), for 1995, 1997, 2000,
2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2020. The plan also
includes a reconstructed emissions inventory for 1990, the base year for
air quality planning under the CAA Amendments of 1990. 

The inventories reflect updated demographic data, and vehicle activity
forecasts, as well as updated calculation methods. The on-road emissions
were calculated using ARB’s EMFAC2002 emission factors and the
transportation activity data provided by the Southern California
Association of Governments (SCAG) from their 2001 Regional
Transportation Plan. Emissions estimates from off-road vehicle
categories (e.g., trains, ships, construction equipment) were developed
using ARB’s OFF-ROAD emissions model, which calculates emissions from
more than 100 types of off-road sources.

Area source emissions were jointly developed by ARB and the District for
a total of 350 categories. For 1997, reported data are used for point
sources emitting more than 4 tons per year of any one of the criteria
air contaminants (i.e., VOC, NOx, SOx, or particulate matter) except for
CO for which the data reporting threshold is 100 tons per year). (See
Appendix III of 2003 South Coast AQMP.) The future emission forecasts
are based on demographic and economic growth projections provided by
SCAG, and take into account emission reductions resulting from ARB and
District regulations adopted by October 31, 2002. 

	The emissions inventory requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(3) and
182(a)(1) were met in the 1994 Ozone Plan, and then, as amended, in the
1997 South Coast AQMP. Based on our review of the inventory
documentation included in the 2003 South Coast AQMP, we find that the
emission inventories in the 2003 South Coast AQMP are also
comprehensive, accurate, and current at the time the SIP was submitted,
and improved relative to those that are in the approved SIP.
Accordingly, we propose to approve the base and future year emissions
inventories (summer and winter seasons) in the 2003 South Coast AQMP as
meeting the requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(3) and 181(a)(1).

C. Control Measures and Contingency Measures

The CAA requires that SIPs "shall include enforceable emission
limitations, and such other control measures, means or techniques ...,
as well as schedules and timetables for compliance, as may be necessary
or appropriate to provide for attainment ... by the applicable
attainment date ... ." CAA section 172(c)(6). The CAA also allows areas
classified as extreme to include "provisions ... which anticipate
development of new control techniques or improvement of existing control
technologies, ... if the State demonstrates ... that -- (A) such
provisions are not necessary to achieve the incremental emission
reductions required during the first 10 years after the date of the
enactment of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990; and (B) the State has
submitted enforceable commitments to develop and adopt contingency
measures to be implemented ... if the anticipated technologies do not
achieve planned reductions." CAA section 182(e)(5). The latter
provisions which anticipate development of new control techniques or
improvement of existing control technologies are often referred to as
the “black box.”

1. State’s Defined Measures

In 1997, we approved all of the State’s control measures contained in
the 1994 Ozone SIP that EPA had not previously approved. See 62 FR 1150
at 1183 (January 8, 1997). EPA’s 1997 approval included assignment of
specific emissions reductions by nonattainment area and milestone year
for all of the State control measures, including those previously
approved, under section 110(k)(3), 182(e)(5), and 301(a) of the CAA. In
1999, we approved a revision to the State’s commitment to achieve
long-term emissions reductions in the South Coast at the close of the
Public Consultative Process. See 64 FR 39923, at 39926-39927 (July 23,
1999). 

ARB intended the 2003 State Strategy, as submitted on January 9, 2004,
to update and entirely replace the State’s control strategy contained
in the 1994 Ozone SIP (as modified in 1999 for the South Coast);
however, as noted previously, on February 13, 2008, ARB withdrew key
components of the strategy with respect to the South Coast, including
the near-term annual emissions reductions commitments, additional
emissions reduction commitment for the South Coast, and the “black
box” emissions reduction commitment. Therefore, with these key
components missing, we do not interpret the remaining component the 2003
State Strategy (i.e., commitment for near-term defined measures) as
replacing the ozone control strategy, but rather as a set of new
measures to achieve additional emissions reductions in the South Coast
by the 1-hour ozone NAAQS attainment date of 2010.

The remaining component of the 2003 State Strategy is a commitment by
ARB to have its staff submit to the Board and propose for adoption the
control measures set forth in table 1. Under the 2003 State Strategy,
the ARB staff proposal for each control measure must, at a minimum,
achieve the estimated emission reductions set forth in table 1 of this
document (derived from the 2003 State Strategy, ARB Resolution 03-22,
Attachment A-6, Table I-7). Where a range of estimated emission
reductions is shown, the ARB staff proposal must, at a minimum, achieve
the lower end of the range of reductions. ARB’s Board then must take
action on or before the action dates set forth in table 1, but such
action by the Board may include any action within its discretion. The
measures themselves are discussed in detail in sections II and III of
the Proposed 2003 State and Federal Strategy for California SIP (August
25, 2003). We note that, based on table 1-3 in the Final 2007 South
Coast AQMP (June 2007) and further investigation by EPA as to the status
of ARB’s rulemakings, we believe that ARB staff proposals were
submitted to the Board for most of the 15 obligations listed in table 1
and that ARB has taken action on such proposals. Similarly we believe
that the Bureau of Automotive Repair (BAR) has fulfilled its one
obligation.

Table 1

Defined State Measures to be Developed and Proposed (Source: 2003 State
Strategy, ARB Resolution 03-22, Attachment A-6, Table I-7)





Strategy (Agency)	

Name	

Final Action Date	Implement-ation

Date	Expected Reductions

(South Coast 2010)





VOC	NOx

LT/MED-DUTY-1 (ARB)	Replace or Update Emission Control Systems on
Existing Passenger Vehicles.	2005	2007-2008	0-20	0-20

LT/MED-DUTY-2 (BAR)	Improve Smog Check to Reduce Emissions from Existing
Passenger and Cargo Vehicles	2002-2005	2002-2006	5.6-5.8	8.0-8.4

ON-RD HVY-DUTY-1 (ARB)	Augment Truck and Bus Highway Inspections with
Community-Based Inspections	2003	2005	0-0.1	0

ON-RD HVY-DUTY-3 (ARB)	Pursue Approaches to Clean Up the Existing and
New Truck/Bus Fleet	2003-2006	2004-2010	1.4-4.5	16-21

OFF-RD CI-1 (ARB)	Pursue Approaches to Clean Up the Existing Heavy-Duty
Off-Road Equipment Fleet (Compression Ignition Engines)	2004-2008
2006-2010	2.3-7.8	8-10

OFF-RD LSI-1 (ARB)	Set Lower Emission Standards for New Off-Road Gas
Engines (Spark-Ignited Engines 25 hp and Greater)	2004-2005	2007	0	0.8

OFF-RD LSI-2 (ARB)	Clean Up Off-Road Gas Equipment Through Retrofit
Controls and New Emissions Standards (Spark-Ignited Engines 25 hp and
Greater)	2004	2006-2012	0.8-2.0	2-4

SMALL OFF-RD-1 (ARB)	Set Lower Emission Standards for New Handheld Small
Engines and Equipment (Spark-Ignited Engines under 25 hp such as Weed
Trimmers, Leaf Blowers, and Chainsaws)	2003	2005	1.9	0.2

SMALL OFF-RD-2 (ARB)	Set Lower Emission Standards for New Non-Handheld
Small Engines and Equipment (Spark-Ignited Engines under 25 hp such as
Lawnmowers)	2003	2007	6.3-7.4	0.6-1.9

MARINE-1 (ARB)	Pursue Approaches to Clean Up the Existing Harbor Craft
Fleet – Cleaner Engines and Fuels	2003-2005	2005	0.1	2.7

MARINE-2 (ARB)	Pursue Approaches to Reduce Land-Based Port Emissions –
Alternative Fuels, Cleaner Engines, Retrofit Controls, Electrification,
Education Programs, Operational Controls	2003-2005	2003-2010	0.1	0.1

FUEL-2 (ARB)	Set Low-Sulfur Standards for Diesel Fuel for Trucks/Buses,
Off-Road Equipment, and Stationary Engines	2003	2006	Enabling	Enabling

CONS-1 (ARB)	Set New Consumer Products Limits for 2006	2003-2004	2006
2.3	0

CONS-2 (ARB)	Set New Consumer Products Limits for 2008-2010	2006-2008
2008-2010	8.5-15	0

FVR-1 (ARB)	Increase Recovery of Fuel Vapors from Aboveground Storage
Tanks	2003	2007	0-0.1	0

FVR-2 (ARB)	Recover Fuel Vapors from Gasoline Dispensing at Marinas
2006-2009	2006-2010	0-0.1	0

PEST-11 (DPR)	Implement Existing Pesticide Strategy	--	1996-2010
Base-line	N/A

Potential Range for Defined Near-Term State Measures

	33.3-72.9	38.4-69.1

1 We interpret our approval of this measure as maintaining the status
quo with respect to the existing pesticide strategy (i.e., the SIP will
continue to reflect the strategy as approved by EPA in 1997).

Assuming that the remaining component of the 2003 State Strategy adds
to, but does not replace, the existing SIP ozone strategy, we propose to
approve the State commitments with respect to the near-term defined
measures listed in table 1 as described above as strengthening the SIP.
We propose to approve the State’s commitments with respect to the
near-term defined measures, not as fulfilling any particular requirement
under the CAA, but as a strengthening of the South Coast portion of the
California SIP. As such, our proposed approval is made under CAA
sections 110(k)(3) and 301(a). 

2. District’s Near-Term Control Measures, Annual Emissions Reductions
Commitment, and Contingency Measure 

In 2000, under CAA section 110(k)(3), we approved the District’s
commitment to adopt and implement the short- and intermediate-term
control measures in the 1997/1999 South Coast Ozone SIP by the dates
specified to achieve the identified emissions reductions, and the
District’s commitment to adopt and implement control measures to
achieve the identified annual emissions reduction commitments for 1999
to 2008. 

The 2003 South Coast AQMP includes an updated list of commitments for
those District control measures that remain from the 1997/1999 South
Coast Ozone SIP, and a set of new District commitments to adopt
near-term control measures. See table 2 of this document. Consistent
with the approach in the 1997/1999 South Coast SIP, the District commits
to meet the adoption dates, implementation dates, and emission reduction
targets shown in table 2 (derived from table 4-1 of the 2003 South Coast
AQMP), unless a measure, in whole or in part, is determined to be
infeasible. 

Also consistent with the 1997/1999 South Coast SIP, the District
includes in the 2003 plan an additional enforceable commitment to
achieve aggregate emission reductions through a schedule of rule
adoption and implementation for specific years. See table 3 of this
document. Under the 2003 South Coast AQMP, the District reserves the
right to substitute measures listed in table 2 (of this document) with
other measures, provided that the given measure is found to be
infeasible and that the overall equivalent emission reductions by
adoption and implementation dates shown in tables 3 and 4 (of this
document) are maintained. Based on table 1-2 of the 2007 South Coast
AQMP (June 2007), we believe that most of the District’s near-term
commitments with respect to control measures for which emission
reductions targets are identified have been met.

Table 2

District’s Near-Term VOC and NOx Control Measures

(Source: 2003 South Coast AQMP, Table 4-1)





Control Measure	

Title of Control Measure	Reduction Target1 (tons/day)

Remaining 1997/1999 South Coast Ozone Plan Control Measures:

CTS-07	Further Emission Reductions from Architectural Coatings and
Cleanup Solvents (Rule 1113)(VOC)	8.5

CTS-10	Miscellaneous Industrial Coatings and Solvent Operations (VOC)
3.0

FUG-05	Emission Reductions from Fugitive Emissions Sources (VOC)	2.0

MSC-01	Promotion of Lighter Color Roofing and Road Materials and Tree
Planting Programs (All Pollutants)	TBD

MSC-03	Promotion of Catalyst-Surface Coating Technology Programs (All
Pollutants)	TBD

PRC-07	Industrial Process Operations (VOC)	2.0

WST-012	Emission Reductions from Livestock Waste (VOC)	4.8

WST-023	Emission Reductions from Composting	1.2

FSS-044	Emission Charges of $5,000 per Ton of VOC for Stationary Sources
Emitting Over 10 Tons per Year (VOC)	TBD

FLX-01	Economic Incentive Programs	TBD

New Control Measures:

CMB-10	Additional NOx Reductions for RECLAIM (NOx)	3.0

MSC-05	Truck Stop Electrification (NOx)	2.1

MSC-07	Natural Gas Fuel Specifications (NOx)	TBD

MSC-08	Further Emission Reductions from Large VOC Sources (VOC)	TBD

FSS-055	Mitigation Fee Program for Federal Sources (All Pollutants)	TBD

FSS-06	Further Emission Reductions from In-Use Off-Road Vehicles and
Equipment (VOC, NOx, PM10)	TBD

FSS-07	Emission Fee Program for Port-related Mobile Sources (All
Pollutants)	TBD



Total VOC 21.5

NOx  5.1

     

1 The emission reductions estimates are based on the 2010 planning
inventory in the 2003 South Coast AQMP. The District notes that the
actual reductions are subject to change during the rulemaking process
based on the latest available emission inventory data.

2 Previously approved in connection with the PM10 portion of the 2003
South Coast AQMP. See 70 FR 69081 (November 14, 2005).

3 Previously approved in connection with the PM10 portion of the 2003
South Coast AQMP. See 70 FR 69081 (November 14, 2005).

4 The measure is intended to achieve reductions after the 2010
attainment date.

5 Proposed for disapproval herein.

 



Based on our review of the District’s updated strategy in the 2003
South Coast AQMP for achieving near-term emissions reductions, and the
progress the District has achieved to date in implementing the measures,
we propose to approve the District’s commitment to adopt the near-term
measures listed in table 2 (except for FSS-05, as described below) and
commitment to achieve aggregate emissions reductions through the rule
and adoption schedule shown in table 3.

 

Table 3

District’s Near-Term VOC and NOx Emissions Reductions Commitment to be
Achieved through Rule Adoption and Implementation1

(Source: 2003 South Coast AQMP, Table 4-8A)





Year

	

VOC	

NOx

	Based on Adoption Date	Based on Implementation Date	Based on Adoption
Date	Based on Implementation Date

2002	0.6	--	--	--

2003	16.9	0.6	--	--

2004	2.0	--	3.0	--

2005	2.0	--	2.1	--

2006	--	4.8	--	--

2007	--	2.0	--	2.1

2008	--	12.1	--	--

2009	--	--	--	--

2010	--	2.0	--	3.0

Total	21.5	21.5	5.1	5.1

1 In tons per day based on the 2010 planning inventory in the 2003 South
Coast AQMP. 



Like the State defined control measures discussed above, we propose to
approve the District’s updated strategy for near-term emissions
reductions in the 2003 South Coast AQMP, not as fulfilling any
particular requirement under the CAA, but as a strengthening of the
South Coast portion of the California SIP. As such, our proposed
approval is made under CAA sections 110(k)(3) and 301(a).

One particular District control measure, FSS-05 (“Mitigation Fee
Program for Federal Sources”), assigns to EPA the responsibility of
adopting a mitigation fee program. See page 4-17 of the 2003 South Coast
AQMP. Under this program, the mitigation fee would be paid by the owners
of such sources as aircraft, ocean-going vessels, trains, and pre-empted
off-road equipment (that are under the jurisdiction of EPA) through EPA
rulemaking and/or EPA grants to the District. The District would then
use the monies collected to implement strategies for both federal and
non-federal sources to achieve equivalent reductions for SIP purposes.
We propose to disapprove this particular control measure on the grounds
that States are not given the authority under the CAA to assign emission
reductions responsibilities to the Federal Government. For a detailed
discussion of EPA’s view on “federal assignments,” see EPA’s
final rule approving the 1994 Ozone SIP (62 FR 1150, at 1152-1155
(January 8, 1997). 

Under the 2003 South Coast AQMP, the expected progress in meeting the
AQMP attainment goals, measured in terms of emission reductions, is
verified through the annual auditing program called the Reasonable
Further Progress (RFP) program. In the event the RFP program shows that
the implementation of the plan is not providing adequate progress and
the interim emission reduction goals have not been met, the District
must take action to bring forward measures that are scheduled for later
adoption or implementation, or to implement certain other contingency
measures. See section 2 of appendix IV-A of the 2003 South Coast AQMP.
With respect to progress towards the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, the 2003 South
Coast AQMP includes one contingency measure, CTY-01 – Accelerated
Implementation of Control Measures, that would accelerate the starting
implementation date for the stationary and mobile source control
measures that have implementation dates on and after 2004. The original
and revised (i.e., under CTY-01) starting implementation dates of the
stationary and mobile source control measures affected by the
contingency measure are shown in table 2 of chapter 9 of the 2003 South
Coast AQMP. As noted above, we believe that most of the District’s
near-term commitments to adopt defined measures have been met. 

Based on our review of contingency measure strategy, and the progress
the District has achieved to date in implementing the measures, we
propose to approve CTY-01 (except for the individual FSS-05, which we
are proposing to disapprove for the reasons given above) as a
strengthening of the South Coast portion of the California SIP. As such,
our proposed approval is made under CAA sections 110(k)(3) and 301(a).

3. District’s Black Box Emissions Reduction Commitment 

In 2000, we approved the District’s commitment to adopt and implement
the long-term “black box” control measures in the 1997/1999 South
Coast Ozone Plan by the dates specified to achieve the identified
emissions reductions under CAA sections 110(k)(3) and 182(e)(5). See 65
FR 18903, at 18905 (April 10, 2000).

In the 1997/1999 South Coast SIP, the District calculated that the
remaining portion of its “black box” commitment amounted to 28 tpd
of VOC. In the 2003 South Coast AQMP, the District contends that, after
implementation of its proposed near-term measures, the District would be
exceeding its emission target in the 1997/1999 South Coast SIP by about
65 tpd of VOC. As such, the District’s “black box” commitment in
the 1997/1999 South Coast SIP of 28 tpd has been fulfilled. Nonetheless,
in view of the magnitude of the reductions now understood to be needed
for attainment of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS in the South Coast, the
District has adopted an additional “black box” commitment of 31 tpd
as shown in table 4 of this document. 

Table 4

District’s Black Box VOC Emission Reductions Commitment to be Achieved
through Rule Adoption and Implementation

(Source: 2003 South Coast AQMP, Table 4-8B)





Year	

VOC

(2010 Planning Inventory, tons/day)

	Based on Adoption Date	Based on Implementation Date1

2005	4.0	--

2006	10.0	--

2007	10.0	3.0

2008	7.0	10.0

2009	--	11.0

2010	--	7.0



Total	

31.0	

31.0

1 Represents the final, full implementation date; typically a rule
contains multiple implementation dates. 



As described in the 2003 South Coast AQMP (appendix IV-A, section 1,
group 8), the District’s “black box” commitment is organized into
two tiers. The first tier targets (but is not limited to) stationary
source categories including miscellaneous industrial coatings and
solvent operations, fugitive sources, and industrial process operations.
The second tier targets all stationary source categories for which
feasible reductions can be identified. We propose to approve the
District’s new “black box” commitment in the 2003 South Coast
AQMP, not as fulfilling any particular requirement under the CAA, but as
a strengthening of the South Coast portion of the California SIP. As
such, our proposed approval is made under CAA sections 110(k)(3) and
301(a). 

4. Black Box Emissions Reduction Assignment to the Federal Government 

	Lastly, the 2003 South Coast AQMP allocates a portion of the “black
box” to the Federal Government. The “federal assignment” in the
2003 South Coast AQMP calls for the Federal Government to achieve
emissions reductions of 68 tpd NOx and 18 tpd VOC in the South Coast by
2010. As discussed above in connection with District measure FSS-05, we
propose to disapprove this assignment on the grounds that States are not
given the authority under the CAA to assign emission reductions
responsibilities to the Federal Government. 

D. Attainment Demonstration

All 1-hour ozone areas classified as serious or above must demonstrate
attainment "as expeditiously as practicable" but not later than dates
specified in CAA section 181(a), which establishes for extreme areas a
deadline of November 15, 2010. For purposes of demonstrating attainment,
CAA section 182(c)(2)(A) requires serious, severe, and extreme areas to
use photochemical grid modeling or an analytical method EPA determines
to be as effective.

In 2000, we approved the attainment demonstration for the 1-hour ozone
NAAQS in the 1997 South Coast AQMP, as amended by the District in 1999,
as meeting the requirements of CAA sections 182(c)(2) and (e). See 65 FR
18903, at 18905 (April 10, 2000). The District revised the 1-hour ozone
attainment demonstration in the 2003 South Coast AQMP in light of
updated emissions inventories that show higher mobile source emissions
than prior projections and updated modeling that indicates a lower
carrying capacity in the air basin. The District describes the methods,
assumptions and results of the modeling effort in chapter 5 of the main
body of the AQMP and provides more details on the modeling effort in
appendix V. 

The 2003 South Coast AQMP’s modeled attainment demonstration for
1-hour ozone relies upon emission reductions from the ARB’s control
strategy as set forth in the 2003 State Strategy, most of which was
withdrawn by ARB on February 13, 2008. As a result, we need not conduct
a detailed review of the modeling to conclude that the 2003 South Coast
AQMP does not meet the CAA section 182(c)(2)(A) requirement for a
demonstration of attainment of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by the applicable
attainment date (in this case, 2010). EPA proposes to disapprove the
ozone plan with respect to the attainment demonstration requirements of
CAA section 182(c)(2)(A), because of the deficiencies in the control
measure portions of the plan resulting from the withdrawal of the
State’s emission reduction commitments in the 2003 State Strategy.

E. Quantitative Milestones and Reasonable Further Progress (RFP)

CAA section 172(c)(2) requires nonattainment area plans to provide for
reasonable further progress (RFP) which is defined in section 171(1) as
such annual incremental reductions in emissions as are required in part
D or may reasonably be required by the Administrator in order to ensure
attainment of the relevant NAAQS by the applicable date.

CAA section 182(c)(2) require that serious and above area SIPs include
rate-of-progress (ROP) quantitative milestones that are to be achieved
every 3 years after 1996 until attainment. For ozone areas classified as
serious and above, section 182(c)(2) requires that the SIP must provide
for reductions in ozone-season, weekday VOC emissions of at least 3
percent per year net of growth averaged over each consecutive 3-year
period. This is in addition to the 15 percent reduction over the first
6-year period required by CAA section 182(b)(1) for areas classified as
moderate and above. The CAA requires that these milestones be calculated
from the 1990 inventory after excluding, among other things, emission
reductions from “[a]ny measure related to motor vehicle exhaust or
evaporative emissions promulgated by the Administrator by January 1,
1990” and emission reductions from certain federal gasoline volatility
requirements. CAA section 182(b)(1)(B)-(D). EPA has issued guidance on
meeting 1-hour ozone ROP requirements. See General Preamble at 13516 and
“Guidance on the Post-1996 Rate-of-Progress Plan and the Attainment
Demonstration,” EPA-452/R-93-015, OAQPS, EPA, February 18, 1994
(corrected).

CAA section 182(c)(2)(C) allows for NOx reductions which occur after
1990 to be used to meet the post-1996 ROP emission reduction
requirements, provided that such NOx reductions meet the criteria
outlined in the CAA and EPA guidance. The criteria require that: (1) the
sum of all creditable VOC and NOx reductions must meet the 3 percent per
year ROP requirement; (2) the substitution is on a percent-for-percent
of adjusted base year emissions basis for the relevant pollutant; and
(3) the sum of all substituted NOx reductions cannot be greater than the
cumulative NOx reductions required by the modeled attainment
demonstration. See General Preamble at 13517 and “NOx Substitution
Guidance,” OAQPS, EPA, December 1993. Our guidance in the General
Preamble states that by meeting the specific ROP milestones discussed
above, the general RFP requirements in CAA section 172(c)(2) will also
be satisfied. See the General Preamble at 13518.

In 2000, we approved the revised ROP demonstration for the milestone
years 1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, and 2010 in the 1999 amendment to the 1997
South Coast AQMP, as meeting the requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(2)
and 182(c)(2). See 65 FR 18903, at 18905 (April 10, 2000). The 2003
South Coast AQMP includes a revised demonstration for milestone years
2005, 2008, and 2010. See pages 6-6 through 6-9 of the AQMP. The revised
ROP demonstration in the 2003 South Coast AQMP does not rely on
emissions reductions from any new control measures in the plan but
relies only on VOC and NOx emission reductions from existing District
and ARB rules. For the milestone years 2005 and 2008, the ROP
demonstration shows that baseline VOC emission levels are below the
target levels. In 2010, however, the VOC reductions in the baseline are
insufficient to meet the target, and thus, the plan relies in part on
NOx substitution. 

Our review of the ROP demonstration in the 2003 South Coast AQMP reveals
a flaw in the calculation method. The demonstration purports to adjust
emissions for the base year (1990) to remove the benefit of the pre-1990
Federal motor vehicle control program (FMVCP) and certain federal
gasoline volatility requirements, as is required under the CAA, but the
adjustment in the ROP table for NOx (table 6-3b in the AQMP) has been
set at zero, which cannot be correct. Given the minimal explanation for
how the adjustment was determined, we can only presume that the same
calculation method was used for the VOC table (table 6-3a). Therefore,
we conclude that the calculation methods used to demonstrate
rate-of-progress for 2005, 2008, and 2010 are incorrect, and on that
basis, we propose to disapprove the revised rate-of-progress
demonstration in the 2003 South Coast AQMP as failing to meet the
requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(2) and 182(c)(2).

F. Transportation Control Measures to Offset Growth in Motor Vehicle
Emissions

	Section 182(d)(1)(A) of the CAA requires nonattainment areas classified
as severe or above to adopt and submit transportation control measures
(TCMs) sufficient to offset any growth in emissions from growth in
vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) or number of vehicle trips and to provide
for ROP. EPA’s interpretation of this provision allows areas to
satisfy the requirement if they demonstrate that emissions from motor
vehicles decline each year through the attainment year. See the General
Preamble at 13521-13522. The 2003 South Coast SIP refers to the TCMs in
appendix IV-C of the 2003 South Coast AQMP as the basis for compliance
with the CAA requirement in section 182(d)(1)(A). See page 6-10 of the
2003 South Coast AQMP. As noted in section II.E of this document, the
TCM portion of the 2003 South Coast AQMP, including appendix IV-C, was
withdrawn, and thus, it cannot serve as the basis for meeting the
requirement. 

However, by letter dated September 10, 2008, the District provided
supplemental motor vehicle emissions data drawn largely from emissions
inventory estimates presented in appendix III of the 2003 South Coast
AQMP. See letter from Elaine Chang, DrPH, Deputy Executive Officer,
SCAQMD, to Matt Haber, Deputy Director, Air Division, EPA Region IX,
September 10, 2008. Based on the emission data presented in appendix III
of the South Coast AQMP and the supplemental information provided by
SCAQMD on September 10th, we find that baseline motor vehicle emissions
in the South Coast decline each year from 2003 to the attainment year
(2010), and that, as a result, no TCMs need be included in the plan to
offset motor vehicle emissions for the purposes of CAA section
182(d)(1)(A). We therefore propose to approve the 2003 South Coast SIP,
as supplemented on September 10, 2008, as meeting the TCM offset
requirement under CAA section 182(d)(1)(A).  

G. Nitrogen Dioxide Maintenance Demonstration

	In 1998, EPA approved the nitrogen dioxide maintenance plan that was
included as an element of the 1997 South Coast AQMP. The 2003 South
Coast SIP updates the original maintenance plan with more current air
monitoring data and emissions estimates and projections. See page 6-11
of the 2003 South Coast AQMP. In support of its conclusion that the
updated plan demonstrates maintenance of the nitrogen dioxide NAAQS,
SCAQMD refers to ambient monitoring data that continues to show
concentrations below the NAAQS and to the downward trend in baseline NOx
emissions. 

Based on our review of the monitoring data presented in chapter 2 of the
2003 South Coast AQMP, which show a maximum concentration in 2001 among
the 23 monitoring stations of less than 80% of the NAAQS, and the
emissions estimates presented in chapter 3, which show a decline from
nearly 1,300 tpd (winter season) of NOx in 1997, to 1,000 tpd in 2006,
to 820 tpd in 2010, we agree with SCAQMD that the 2003 South Coast AQMP
demonstrates maintenance of the nitrogen dioxide NAAQS. Therefore, we
propose to approve the update of the NO2 maintenance demonstration in
the 2003 South Coast SIP.

H. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets (MVEBs)

Under section 176(c) of the CAA, transportation plans, programs and
projects in nonattainment or maintenance areas that are funded or
approved under title 23 U.S.C. and the Federal Transit Laws (49 U.S.C.
Chapter 53) must conform to the applicable SIP. In short, a
transportation plan and program are deemed to conform to the applicable
SIP if the emissions resulting from the implementation of that
transportation plan and program are less than or equal to the MVEBs
established in the control strategy SIPs for the attainment year, ROP
years, maintenance year and other analysis years. See, generally, 40 CFR
part 93.

	On March 11, 2004, we found the NOx and VOC MVEBs for ozone, and the
NOx MVEB for nitrogen dioxide, in the 2003 South Coast SIP to be
adequate for transportation conformity purposes.  Letter to from Deborah
Jordan, EPA to Catherine Witherspoon, ARB, March 11, 2004. A table
attached to the letter summarized our adequacy determination. Our notice
of adequacy for these budgets was published in the Federal Register on
March 25, 2004 at 69 FR 15325 and was effective 15 days later, on April
9, 2004. We are now proposing to disapprove the VOC and NOx MVEBs for
1-hour ozone, and to approve the NOx MVEB for nitrogen dioxide, for
transportation conformity purposes. 

With respect to ozone, we propose to disapprove the VOC and NOx budgets
based on our proposed disapprovals of the 1-hour ozone ROP and
attainment demonstrations as discussed above. As such, we conclude that
the VOC and NOx MVEBs in the 2003 South Coast SIP, when considered
together with all other emissions sources, are not consistent with
applicable requirements for RFP and attainment for the 1-hour ozone
NAAQS because the plan revision as a whole does not provide for RFP and
attainment. While we are proposing to disapprove these 1-hour ozone
budgets into the SIP, it should be noted that they would not be used for
future conformity determinations even if we were to approve them. This
is because EPA has revoked the 1-hour ozone standard and transportation
conformity determinations are no longer required for that air quality
standard, and because we have already found VOC and NOx MVEBs adequate
for the 8-hour ozone standard. See 73 FR 28110 (May 15, 2008), as
corrected at 73 FR 34837 (June 18, 2008).

With respect to nitrogen dioxide, we propose to approve the NOx MVEB of
686 tpd (winter season) for years 2003 and 2010. Use of a planning
inventory (winter) in the 2003 South Coast AQMP as the basis for the
updated maintenance demonstration (and corresponding NOx MVEB) for the
annual NO2 NAAQS is consistent with the approach we approved in the
original NO2 maintenance plan from the 1997 South Coast AQMP, as
discussed above. The NOx MVEB is shown in table 6-7 of the 2003 South
Coast AQMP, and, as shown in that table, the NOx MVEB for nitrogen
dioxide reflects baseline 2003 motor vehicle emissions (shown in more
detail in table C-5 in attachment C to appendix III of the 2003 South
Coast AQMP), and as reduced slightly by the emissions reductions
attributed to the District’s adopted employer-based trip reduction
rule (District rule 2202) and State-adopted vehicle inspection and
maintenance program (I/M) improvements not accounted for in the baseline
motor vehicle estimate. The baseline motor vehicle estimates are based
on ARB’s motor vehicle emissions factor model, EMFAC2002, which was
approved by EPA on April 1, 2003 (68 FR 15720) and the most recent
planning and vehicle activity data then available. 

The baseline emissions inventories, which reflect baseline motor vehicle
emissions as well as baseline emissions for all other source categories,
show a decline in NOx emissions through 2010, and even if motor vehicle
emissions estimates in 2010 were equal to the 2003 MVEB of 686 tpd,
overall baseline NOx emissions in 2010 would still be less than the
corresponding estimate for 2003, an attainment year, and thus we find
the NOx MVEB for 2003, when considered with all other emissions sources,
to be consistent with continued maintenance of the nitrogen dioxide
NAAQS through 2010.   

IV. Public Comment and Final Action

Under section 110(k)(3) of the CAA, and for the reasons discussed above,
EPA proposes the following action on the 2003 State Strategy, as
submitted on January 9, 2004:

(1) Approval of commitments by State agencies to develop and propose 16
near-term defined control measures (15 for ARB and 1 for BAR) to achieve
specified emissions reductions in the South Coast as listed in table 1
of this document and the continuation of the existing pesticide
strategy.

Also under section 110(k)(3) of the CAA, and for the reasons discussed
above, EPA proposes the following actions on the 2003 South Coast SIP,
as submitted on January 9, 2004:

(1) Approval of base year and projected baseline emission inventories
under CAA sections 172(c)(3) and 182(a)(1);

(2) Approval of the District’s commitment to adopt and implement
near-term control measures as shown in table 2 of this document (except
FSS-05), the District’s commitment to achieve emissions reduction
through a schedule of adoption and implementation as shown in table 3 of
this document, and the District’s contingency measure CTY-01
(“Accelerated Implementation of Control Measures”), as strengthening
the SIP;

(3) Disapproval of District control measure FSS-05 (“Mitigation Fee
Program for Federal Sources”) that assigns control measure
responsibility to the Federal Government;

(4) Approval of District’s “black box” VOC emission reduction
commitment of 31 tpd;

(5) Disapproval of the “black box” emission reduction commitment of
68 tpd of NOx and 18 tpd of VOC assigned to the Federal Government;

(6) Disapproval of the attainment demonstration because control measures
upon which the demonstration relies have been withdrawn;

(7) Disapproval of the reasonable further progress demonstration because
the calculations do not properly account for the emissions reductions
from the pre-1990 FMVCP and certain federal gasoline volatility
requirements;

(8) Approval of the demonstration that no TCM offsets are required under
CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) based on baseline motor vehicle emissions
projections as supplemented by the District; 

(9) Approval of the revised nitrogen dioxide maintenance demonstration
based on the downward trend in baseline NOx emissions;

(10) Disapproval of the 1-hour ozone (VOC and NOx) motor vehicle
emissions budgets in the wake of proposed disapprovals of the
rate-of-progress and attainment demonstrations; and 

(11) Approval of the nitrogen dioxide motor vehicle emissions budget of
686 tpd (year 2003), winter planning inventory.

No sanctions clocks or FIP requirement would be triggered by our
disapprovals, if finalized, because the approved SIP already contains
the plan elements that we are proposing to disapprove. A disapproval of
the revisions to the already-approved elements would not alter the fact
that the SIP already meets these statutory requirements. 

EPA is soliciting public comments on the issues discussed in this
document and will accept comments for the next 30 days. These comments
will be considered before taking final action.

V. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

Under the Clean Air Act, the Administrator is required to approve a SIP
submission that complies with the provisions of the Act and applicable
Federal regulations. 42 U.S.C. 7410(k); 40 CFR 52.02(a). Thus, in
reviewing SIP submissions, EPA’s role is to approve state choices,
provided that they meet the criteria of the Clean Air Act. Accordingly,
this action merely proposes to approve state law as meeting Federal
requirements and does not impose additional requirements beyond those
imposed by state law. For that reason, this proposed action:

•	is not a "significant regulatory action" subject to review by the
Office of Management and Budget under Executive Order 12866 (58 FR
51735, October 4, 1993);

•	does not impose an information collection burden under the
provisions of the Paperwork Reduction Act (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.);

•	is certified as not having a significant economic impact on a
substantial number of small entities under the Regulatory Flexibility
Act (5 U.S.C. 601 et seq.);

•	does not contain any unfunded mandate or significantly or uniquely
affect small governments, as described in the Unfunded Mandates Reform
Act of 1995 (Public Law 104-4);

•	does not have Federalism implications as specified in Executive
Order 13132 (64 FR 43255, August 10, 1999);

•	is not an economically significant regulatory action based on health
or safety risks subject to Executive Order 13045 (62 FR 19885, April 23,
1997);

•	is not a significant regulatory action subject to Executive Order
13211 (66 FR 28355, May 22, 2001);

•	is not subject to requirements of Section 12(d) of the National
Technology Transfer and Advancement Act of 1995 (15 U.S.C. 272 note)
because application of those requirements would be inconsistent with the
Clean Air Act; and

•	does not provide EPA with the discretionary authority to address, as
appropriate, disproportionate human health or environmental effects,
using practicable and legally permissible methods, under Executive Order
12898 (59 FR 7629, February 16, 1994).

In addition, this proposed rule does not have tribal implications as
specified by Executive Order 13175 (65 FR 67249, November 9, 2000),
because the SIP is not approved to apply in Indian country located in
the state, and EPA notes that it will not impose substantial direct
costs on tribal governments or preempt tribal law.

List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52

Environmental protection, Air pollution control, Intergovernmental
relations, Oxides of nitrogen, Ozone, Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements, Volatile organic compounds.

__________________			________________________

Dated:					Wayne Nastri,

Regional Administrator,

Region IX.

 The area referred to as “Los Angles-South Coast Air Basin” (South
Coast Air Basin or “South Coast”) includes Orange County, the
southwestern two-thirds of Los Angeles County, southwestern San
Bernardino County, and western Riverside County. For a precise
description of the boundaries of the Los Angeles-South Coast Air Basin,
see 40 CFR 81.305. 

  “Black box” commitment refers to the provisions under CAA section
182(e)(5) that anticipate development of new control techniques or
improvement of existing control technologies.

 California plans sometimes use the term Reactive Organic Gases (ROG)
for VOC. These terms are essentially synonymous. For the sake of
simplicity, we use the term VOC herein to mean either VOC or ROG. 

 For the 1-hour ozone standard, the expected number of exceedances
refers to the number of days per calendar year with maximum hourly
average concentrations above 0.12 ppm averaged over a three-year period.
The standard is attained in an area when the expected number of
exceedances is equal to or less than 1 at all stations. The design value
for an area, which characterizes the severity of the air quality
problem, is represented by the highest design value at any individual
ozone monitoring site (i.e., the highest of the fourth highest 1-hour
daily maximums in a given three-year period with complete monitoring
data). 

 The air quality design value for the 8-hour ozone NAAQS is the 3-year
average of the annual fourth highest daily maximum 8-hour ozone
concentration.

 We approved some of the State and District measures in the plan
earlier. See particularly 60 FR 43379 (August 21, 1995).

 In response to this assignment, we established a Public Consultative
Process to identify the best options for achieving further emissions
reductions from mobile source controls, at least to the extent they are
needed for attainment of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS in the South Coast. In
connection with the establishment of this process, both EPA and ARB made
commitments regarding appropriate future emissions reductions. Please
see EPA’s final approval of the 1994 ozone SIP for a discussion of the
“Federal measures,” and our rationale, at that time, for
establishing the Public Consultative Process (62 FR 1152-5, 1184-6). 

 ARB’s annual adoption commitment represents a commitment to adopt and
implement near-term measures to achieve, at a minimum, the VOC and NOx
emissions reductions in tpd in the South Coast in 2010. Each year from
2003 through 2006 has a separate adoption commitment for VOC and NOx.
For example, ARB’s commitment for 2003 is to adopt near-term measures
in that year that in the aggregate achieve at least 10 tpd VOC and 11
tpd NOx emissions reductions in 2010 in the South Coast. Under this
commitment, reductions in excess of the minimum commitment for a given
year may be applied to the commitment for subsequent years. 

 The range is based on how much of the 97 tpd commitment is achieved
from VOC versus NOx, and EPA action on a federal emissions reduction
assignment in the 2003 South Coast AQMP for 18 tpd VOC and 68 tpd NOx by
2010. 

 In ARB’s February 13, 2008 letter, ARB indicated that it was
withdrawing the Commitment to Reduce Emissions via Adoption Schedule for
the South Coast Air Basin outlined in Section I.D.1, Table I-6 of the
Proposed 2003 State and Federal Strategy for the California SIP
(released August 25, 2003); however, in adopting the 2003 State
Strategy, the ARB Board (via Resolution 03-22) modified the commitment
by increasing the total related emissions reduction commitment to a
total of 50 tpd VOC and 59 tpd NOx in the South Coast in 2010. See table
A-5 of attachment A to ARB Resolution 03-22. ARB clarified, in a letter
dated October 14, 2008, that the reference in the February 13th letter
was in error and that it intended to withdraw the commitment to reduce
emissions via adoption schedule for the South Coast as modified in
Resolution 03-22.

 We interpret ARB’s withdrawal of the 97 tpd combined VOC plus NOx
element of the long-term strategy for the South Coast to include
withdrawal of the commitment to evaluate the feasibility of 21 concepts
for adoption as SIP measures listed in attachment A-1 to ARB Resolution
03-22. 

 Certain other components of the 2003 State Strategy relate to the San
Joaquin Valley, and were proposed for action in a separate rulemaking.

 By letter dated October 14, 2008, ARB withdrew the TCM portion of the
2003 South Coast AQMP. 

 The principal purpose, other than updating the CO portion of the 1997
South Coast AQMP, for developing and submitting the CO portion of the
2003 South Coast SIP was to provide the basis for a CO maintenance plan.
See page 10 of the District’s Carbon Monoxide Redesignation Request
and Maintenance Plan (February 2005) (“2005 CO Maintenance Plan”).
That purpose has already been served by virtue of our approval of the
2005 CO Maintenance Plan in May 2007. Also, we note that the 2005 CO
Maintenance Plan, which we have now approved, carries forward emissions
estimates and projections, and a modeled attainment demonstration, from
the 2003 South Coast AQMP as further evidence of the supersession of the
CO portion of the 2003 South Coast AQMP. 

 On April 1, 2003, EPA approved EMFAC2002 for use in SIP development and
required its use in transportation conformity analyses in California (68
FR 15720). On January 18, 2008, we approved an updated version of EMFAC,
EMFAC2007, for use by California state and local governments to meet CAA
requirements. See 73 FR 3464. We are proposing approval of the revised
emissions inventories that rely on the earlier version of EMFAC because
the earlier version was the one approved at the time when the 2003 South
Coast SIP was submitted to EPA.

 In the case of control measure LT/MED-DUTY-2, the commitment is not
ARB’s, but rather, the Bureau of Automotive Repair’s (BAR’s)
commitment. BAR’s commitment to adopt the measure is documented in
appendix I-1 of the Proposed 2003 State and Federal Strategy for the
California State Implementation Plan (August 25, 2003). 

 In the alternative, if ARB indicates an intention to replace the
existing SIP ozone strategy by the commitment for near-term measures
shown in table 1 of this document, then we propose to disapprove the set
of defined measures on the basis that the State has not provided a
demonstration that replacement of the existing SIP ozone strategy by the
set of measures in table 1 would not interfere with attainment or
maintenance of the NAAQS or any other applicable requirement of the Act.
See CAA section 110(l).

 Our approval made enforceable the District’s commitment to achieve
the overall emissions reduction schedule and creates the possibility of
District control measure adjustments and substitutions under the
approved SIP, so long as the overall emission reductions obligations are
met.

 We are proposing in this document to disapprove the rate-of-progress
demonstration in the 2003 South Coast AQMP, but we note that CTY-01, by
its terms, could be triggered under the District’s RFP program
regardless of our action on the ROP demonstration. 

 Unlike ozone, which peaks in the South Coast in the summer and early
fall months, NO2 generally peaks in the late fall and winter months. The
use of a planning inventory (winter season) rather than an
annual-average inventory to update the maintenance demonstration for the
annual NO2 NAAQS is consistent with the original NO2 maintenance
demonstration from the 1997 South Coast AQMP, which we approved in 1998
(63 FR 39747, July 24, 1998). In the 1997 South Coast AQMP, the District
demonstrated maintenance of the annual NO2 NAAQS using a linear rollback
approach and baseline planning inventories (winter season) for NOx to
project future-year annual NOx concentrations from baseline annual NOx
concentrations for several key locations in the South Coast
representative of areas with historically higher NO2 concentrations.
Projected future-year annual NO2 concentrations were then determined
from projected annual NOx concentrations using average NO2/NOx ratios
measured at the key locations. See chapter 1 of appendix V to the 1997
South Coast AQMP (November 1996).  

 In table 6-7 of the 2003 South Coast AQMP, a footnote to the NOx MVEB
states: “2003 budget applicable to future years, including the last
year of maintenance plan (i.e., 2010).” We interpret this language as
establishing a MVEB for year 2003 and for year 2010 and not as
establishing a budget for each intervening year and the years after
2010. An interpretation otherwise would be unreasonable in that it would
necessitate a conformity determination for NO2 by SCAG for each of the
intervening years and for an indeterminate number of future years.  

 On January 18, 2008, we approved an updated version of EMFAC,
EMFAC2007, for use by California state and local governments to meet CAA
requirements. See 73 FR 3464. We are proposing approval of the NOx
budgets for NO2 in the 2003 South Coast AQMP despite the fact that they
reflect an earlier-approved version of EMFAC (EMFAC2002) because the
earlier version was the one approved at the time when the 2003 South
Coast SIP was submitted to EPA. 

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