Maryland Department of the Environment

Mobile Sources Control Program













	Cecil County MOBILE6 Modeling Emission Analysis

R.O.P Runs using the 2002-based MD-EMIS System





















	Cecil Area



Step





Modeling Scenario

VOC	NOx

Remarks

1





2002 RFP Base-Year Inventory	 	4.0	14.2

All 2002 control programs in place, 2002 VMT













	2





2002 RFP Adjusted Year Inventory

5.4	16.1

CAA Off, 7.8 RVP, 1990 I/M, 2002 Eval Yr & 2002 VMT

3





2008 RFP Adjusted Year Inventory

4.7	13.9

CAA Off, 7.8 RVP, 1990 I/M, 2008 Eval Yr & 2002 VMT

4





2009 RFP Adjusted Year Inventory

4.7	13.8

CAA Off, 7.8 RVP, 1990 I/M, 2009 Eval Yr & 2002 VMT













	7





2008 Projected Emission Inventory

2.3	7.9

All 2008 control programs in place

8





2009 Projected Emission Inventory

2.2	7.2

All 2009 control programs in place

9





2010 Projected Emission Inventory

2.03	6.4

All 2010 control programs in place













	2008 RFP Analysis



















2008 Non-Creditables (Step 2 minus Step 3)

0.7	2.2



2008 Adjstd Base-Year minus Non-Creditables

3.0	10.8



2008 Target Emissions (w/15% Reductions)

2.5	9.2



2008 Target Emissions (w/18% Reductions)

2.4	8.9















	2008 Projctd Emissions (14% Projctd VMT Growth)

2.6	9.4















	Note: The New MD-EMIS system with 2005 updates may show a similar trend
buth the absolute numbers will be different













	Prepared by: MDE's Mobile Sources Control Program,  Phone (410)
537-4183                          Nov. 27, 2006



