MEMORANDUM
Eastern
Research
Group,
Inc.
110
Hartwell
Avenue
Lexington,
MA
02421
Date:
June
5,
2003
To:
James
Covington,
EPA
From:
Colleen
Campbell
and
Cal
Franz,
ERG
Re:
Meat
and
Poultry
Products
Industry
Market
Impact
Analysis
1.
INTRODUCTION
ERG
projected
market
level
impacts
on
the
Meat
and
Poultry
Products
(
MPP)
industry
based
on
costs
received
from
Tetra
Tech
on
May
27,
2003
and
weights
received
from
Westat
on
April
10,
2003.
The
market
analysis
was
performed
following
the
same
method
used
in
proposal,
with
the
exception
of
the
revised
trade
elasticities
as
discussed
in
the
memo
ERG
sent
EPA
on
February
21,
2003.

The
attached
tables
show
the
results
of
these
analyses.
Table
1
contains
total
pretax
annualized
compliance
costs
per
pound
of
carcass
weight
for
each
of
the
four
meat
types
analyzed
(
beef,
pork,
chicken,
and
turkey);
this
measures
the
vertical
shift
in
the
supply
curve
in
response
to
the
effluent
limitations
guidelines
(
ELG).
1
Table
1A
provides
costs
per
pound
of
total
industry
production.
Table
1B
calculates
costs
per
pound
of
production
by
direct
dischargers
only.
The
figures
in
Table
1B
are
used
to
project
a
worst
case
scenario.
Direct
discharger
production
is
a
fraction
of
total
industry
production,
so
costs
per
pound
are
significantly
higher
in
Table
1B.
Using
this
measure
overestimates
the
decrease
in
meat
supply
attributable
to
the
ELG.
The
costs
in
Table
1A
are
more
realistic
because:
(
1)
the
majority
of
facilities
incur
no
costs,
and
(
2)
the
competition
from
facilities
that
do
not
incur
costs
will
discourage
affected
facilities
from
increasing
price
by
the
full
cost
per
pound
of
the
ELG.

Tables
2A
through
2E
present
projected
market
level
impacts
for
the
four
meat
types
under
each
of
the
five
options
resulting
from
the
 
realistic 
supply
shift.
Tables
3A
through
3E
present
the
 
worst
case
scenario; 
impacts
assuming
that
the
decrease
in
supply
is
equal
to
the
full
cost
per
pound
of
the
ELG
to
direct
dischargers
alone.

In
general,
the
results
in
these
tables
show:

 
projected
compliance
costs
per
pound
and
impacts
under
Option
2
+
P
are
greater
than
under
Option
2.5;

1
To
estimate
production
weight,
ERG
converted
detailed
survey
data
on
live
weight
killed
to
a
carcass
weight
basis
using
ratios
derived
from
USDA
data
for
live
weight
and
dressed
weight
by
animal
type.

1
 
based
on
compliance
costs
per
pound
of
total
output
(
Table
2),
the
magnitude
of
relative
impacts
are
the
smallest
on
pork;
with
the
exception
of
Option
4,
impacts
on
beef,
chicken,
and
turkey
are
of
approximately
similar
magnitude.

 
based
on
compliance
costs
per
pound
of
direct
discharger
output
(
Table
3),
the
relative
impacts
on
chicken
are
approximately
twice
the
impacts
on
beef
and
the
relative
impacts
on
turkey
are
roughly
50
percent
larger
than
the
impacts
on
chicken.

2.
SUMMARY
OF
RESULTS
This
summary
will
focus
on
impacts
to
domestic
price,
domestic
supply
(
and
therefore
employment),
and
meat
exports.
Potential
negative
impacts
to
exports
are
of
particular
concern
to
the
poultry
industry.
The
attached
tables
also
present
projected
impacts
on
domestic
consumption,
meat
imports,
and
the
shifts
in
demand
for
meat
products
resulting
from
relative
price
changes
among
substitute
products.

2.1
Annualized
Compliance
Costs
Projected
annualized
compliance
costs
were
calculated
per
slaughter
pound
of
each
meat
type
under
each
option.

 
costs
per
pound
of
total
production
(
Table
1A)
are
smallest
for
pork,
ranging
from
$
0.000014
under
Option
2
to
$
0.0005
under
Option
4;

 
costs
per
pound
of
total
production
(
Table
1A)
are
largest
for
turkey,
ranging
from
$
0.00036
under
Option
2
to
$
0.0019
under
Option
4;

 
worst
case
scenario
costs
per
pound
(
Table
1B)
exceed
Table
1A
costs
by
a
factor
ranging
from
3
(
pork)
to
10
(
turkey).

2.2
Price
Impacts
The
market
model
projects
impacts
on
the
market
price
per
pound
of
meat
product.
The
model
also
calculates
the
percent
change
from
the
baseline
price
to
the
post­
regulatory
price
projected
under
each
option.
The
results
of
this
analysis
are
as
follows:

C
for
the
realistic
supply
shift
(
Table
2),
the
maximum
projected
price
increase
is:
 
0.09
percent
for
chicken
and
0.07
percent
for
turkey
under
Option4.
 
less
than
0.04
percent
for
beef
and
pork
under
any
option.

C
for
the
worst
case
scenario
supply
shift
(
Table
3),
the
maximum
projected
price
increase:
 
approaches
0.8
percent
under
Option
4
for
turkey;
 
is
at
least
0.15
percent
for
chicken
and
turkey
under
most
options.

2
2.3
Domestic
Supply
The
market
analysis
calculates
the
projected
impact
to
domestic
production
of
meat
products
 
and
implicitly,
industry
employment
 
under
each
option.
This
differs
from
impacts
to
domestic
consumption
of
meat
products
due
to
trade
flows.
The
results
of
this
analysis
are
as
follows:

 
for
the
realistic
supply
shift
(
Table
2),
domestic
supply
of:
 
beef,
chicken
and
turkey
is
projected
to
decrease
by
0.04
percent
under
Option
4;
 
beef
is
projected
to
decrease
by
about
0.03
percent
under
Option
2
+
P
and
Option
2.5
+
P;
 
domestic
supply
is
generally
projected
to
fall
by
0.02
percent
or
less
under
all
other
options
for
all
meat
types.

C
for
the
worst
case
scenario
supply
shift
(
Table
3),
domestic
supply
of:
 
turkey
is
projected
to
decrease
by
almost
0.5
percent
under
Option
4;
 
chicken
is
projected
to
decrease
by
about
0.3
percent
under
Option
4;
 
chicken
and
turkey
is
projected
to
decrease
by
at
least
0.1
percent
under
most
other
options;

The
market
analysis
also
projects
impacts
to
domestic
demand
for
meat
products
 
and
implicitly,
consumer
well­
being
 
under
each
option.
In
general,
impacts
to
domestic
consumption
of
meat
products
are
somewhat
smaller
than
impacts
to
domestic
supply
due
to
partially
offsetting
increases
in
meat
imports.

2.4
Quantity
Exported
The
market
analysis
calculates
the
projected
impact
of
compliance
costs
on
meat
exports.
This
is
of
particular
concern
to
the
poultry
sector.
Exports
are
the
means
the
poultry
industry
has
used
to
sustain
growth.
Exports
are
also
used
to
balance
domestic
preferences
for
white
meat
poultry
products
with
the
necessary
production
of
dark
meat
as
a
byproduct
of
white
meat
production;
dark
poultry
meat
is
preferred
in
other
parts
of
the
world.
The
results
of
this
analysis
are
as
follows:

C
for
the
realistic
supply
shift
(
Table
2),
meat
exports
are
projected
to:
 
decrease
by
less
than
0.06
percent
for
poultry
meat
under
all
options
except
Option
4;
 
be
of
roughly
similar
relative
magnitude
for
both
red
meat
and
poultry
products.

C
for
the
worst
case
scenario
supply
shift
(
Table
3),
meat
exports
are
projected
to:
 
decrease
by
almost
0.9
percent
for
poultry
meat
under
Option
4;
 
decrease
by
0.1
percent
to
0.5
percent
for
poultry
under
all
other
Options;
 
be
substantially
smaller
for
red
meat
than
for
poultry
products.

3
Table
1A
Total
Pretax
Annualized
Compliance
Cost
per
Pound
Carcass
Weight
Total
Industry
Production
Option
Meat
Type
Option
2
Option
2
+
P
Option
2.5
Option
2.5
+
P
Option
4
Beef
$
0.000162
$
0.000653
$
0.000278
$
0.000779
$
0.000882
Pork
$
0.000014
$
0.000418
$
0.000180
$
0.000503
$
0.000562
Chicken
$
0.000163
$
0.000864
$
0.000334
$
0.001000
$
0.001835
Turkey
$
0.000361
$
0.000849
$
0.000584
$
0.001057
$
0.001913
Table
1B
Total
Pretax
Annualized
Compliance
Cost
per
Pound
Carcass
Weight
Total
Direct
Discharger
Production
Option
Meat
Type
Option
2
Option
2
+
P
Option
2.5
Option
2.5
+
P
Option
4
Beef
$
0.000646
$
0.002609
$
0.001112
$
0.003114
$
0.003525
Pork
$
0.000046
$
0.001337
$
0.000577
$
0.001610
$
0.001797
Chicken
$
0.001109
$
0.005880
$
0.002275
$
0.006804
$
0.012489
Turkey
$
0.003927
$
0.009233
$
0.006346
$
0.011499
$
0.020799
Table
2A
Projected
Compliance
Cost
Impacts
on
Meat
Product
Markets:
Option
2
Annualized
Compliance
Costs
per
Pound
of
Total
Industry
Production
Net
Domestic
Quantity
Domestic
Quantity
Per
Unit
Percent
Percent
Price
Quantity
Supply
Imported
Demand
Exported
Compliance
Shift
in
Shift
in
Subcategory
($/
lb.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
Costs
Supply
Demand
Beef
Baseline
$
1.1105
29,260.0
26,386.0
2,874.0
26,843.0
2,417.0
$
0.00016
­
0.0146%
0.0007%

Post­
regulatory
$
1.1106
29,258.6
26,384.1
2,874.4
26,841.8
2,416.7
%
Change
0.01%
­
0.005%
­
0.01%
0.02%
­
0.004%
­
0.01%

Pork
Baseline
$
1.00380
20,105.0
19,278.00
827.00
18,827.0
1,278.00
$
0.00001
­
0.0014%
0.0024%

Post­
regulatory
$
1.00382
20,105.1
19,278.04
827.02
18,827.1
1,277.97
%
Change
0.002%
0.0003%
0.0002%
0.002%
0.001%
­
0.003%

Chicken
Baseline
$
0.58070
29,746.0
29,741.0
5.0000
24,826.0
4,920.0
$
0.00016
­
0.0281%
0.0015%

Post­
regulatory
$
0.58075
29,744.8
29,739.8
5.0005
24,825.3
4,919.5
%
Change
0.01%
­
0.004%
­
0.004%
0.01%
­
0.003%
­
0.01%

Turkey
Baseline
$
0.6898
5,298.3
5,297.0
1.2500
4,919.3
379.0
$
0.00036
­
0.0524%
0.0005%

Post­
regulatory
$
0.6899
5,297.8
5,296.6
1.2502
4,918.9
378.9
%
Change
0.01%
­
0.01%
­
0.01%
0.02%
­
0.01%
­
0.02%
Table
2B
Projected
Compliance
Cost
Impacts
on
Meat
Product
Markets:
Option
2
+
P
Annualized
Compliance
Costs
per
Pound
of
Total
Industry
Production
Net
Domestic
Quantity
Domestic
Quantity
Per
Unit
Percent
Percent
Price
Quantity
Supply
Imported
Demand
Exported
Compliance
Shift
in
Shift
in
Subcategory
($/
lb.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
Costs
Supply
Demand
Beef
Baseline
$
1.1105
29,260.0
26,386.0
2,874.0
26,843.0
2,417.0
$
0.00065
­
0.0588%
0.0056%

Post­
regulatory
$
1.1109
29,254.5
26,378.7
2,875.8
26,838.7
2,415.8
%
Change
0.03%
­
0.02%
­
0.03%
0.06%
­
0.02%
­
0.05%

Pork
Baseline
$
1.0038
20,105.0
19,278.0
827.0
18,827.0
1,278.0
$
0.00042
­
0.0416%
0.0097%

Post­
regulatory
$
1.0040
20,102.9
19,275.6
827.2
18,825.3
1,277.6
%
Change
0.02%
­
0.01%
­
0.01%
0.03%
­
0.01%
­
0.03%

Chicken
Baseline
$
0.5807
29,746.0
29,741.0
5.000
24,826.0
4,920.0
$
0.00086
­
0.1488%
0.0094%

Post­
regulatory
$
0.5810
29,739.9
29,734.9
5.003
24,822.6
4,917.3
%
Change
0.05%
­
0.02%
­
0.02%
0.05%
­
0.01%
­
0.05%

Turkey
Baseline
$
0.6898
5,298.3
5,297.0
1.2500
4,919.3
379.0
$
0.00085
­
0.1231%
0.0044%

Post­
regulatory
$
0.6900
5,297.3
5,296.1
1.2505
4,918.5
378.8
%
Change
0.03%
­
0.02%
­
0.02%
0.04%
­
0.02%
­
0.04%
Table
2C
Projected
Compliance
Cost
Impacts
on
Meat
Product
Markets:
Option
2.5
Annualized
Compliance
Costs
per
Pound
of
Total
Industry
Production
Net
Domestic
Quantity
Domestic
Quantity
Per
Unit
Percent
Percent
Price
Quantity
Supply
Imported
Demand
Exported
Compliance
Shift
in
Shift
in
Subcategory
($/
lb.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
Costs
Supply
Demand
Beef
Baseline
$
1.1105
29,260.0
26,386.0
2,874.0
26,843.0
2,417.0
$
0.00028
­
0.0251%
0.0024%

Post­
regulatory
$
1.1106
29,257.7
26,382.9
2,874.8
26,841.2
2,416.5
%
Change
0.01%
­
0.01%
­
0.01%
0.03%
­
0.01%
­
0.02%

Pork
Baseline
$
1.0038
20,105.0
19,278.0
827.0
18,827.0
1,278.0
$
0.00018
­
0.0180%
0.0043%

Post­
regulatory
$
1.0039
20,104.1
19,277.0
827.1
18,826.3
1,277.8
%
Change
0.01%
­
0.005%
­
0.01%
0.01%
0.00%
­
0.01%

Chicken
Baseline
$
0.5807
29,746.0
29,741.0
5.000
24,826.0
4,920.0
$
0.00033
­
0.0576%
0.0035%

Post­
regulatory
$
0.5808
29,743.6
29,738.6
5.001
24,824.7
4,919.0
%
Change
0.02%
­
0.01%
­
0.01%
0.02%
­
0.01%
­
0.02%

Turkey
Baseline
$
0.6898
5,298.3
5,297.0
1.2500
4,919.3
379.0
$
0.00058
­
0.0846%
0.0022%

Post­
regulatory
$
0.6900
5,297.6
5,296.3
1.2503
4,918.7
378.9
%
Change
0.02%
­
0.01%
­
0.01%
0.03%
­
0.01%
­
0.03%
Table
2D
Projected
Compliance
Cost
Impacts
on
Meat
Product
Markets:
Option
2.5
+
P
Annualized
Compliance
Costs
per
Pound
of
Total
Industry
Production
Net
Domestic
Quantity
Domestic
Quantity
Per
Unit
Percent
Percent
Price
Quantity
Supply
Imported
Demand
Exported
Compliance
Shift
in
Shift
in
Subcategory
($/
lb.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
Costs
Supply
Demand
Beef
Baseline
$
1.1105
29,260.0
26,386.0
2,874.0
26,843.0
2,417.0
$
0.00078
­
0.0702%
0.0067%

Post­
regulatory
$
1.1109
29,253.4
26,377.3
2,876.2
26,837.8
2,415.6
%
Change
0.04%
­
0.02%
­
0.03%
0.08%
­
0.02%
­
0.06%

Pork
Baseline
$
1.0038
20,105.0
19,278.0
827.0
18,827.0
1,278.0
$
0.00050
­
0.0501%
0.0116%

Post­
regulatory
$
1.0041
20,102.4
19,275.1
827.3
18,825.0
1,277.5
%
Change
0.03%
­
0.01%
­
0.01%
0.04%
­
0.01%
­
0.04%

Chicken
Baseline
$
0.5807
29,746.0
29,741.0
5.000
24,826.0
4,920.0
$
0.00100
­
0.1722%
0.0112%

Post­
regulatory
$
0.5810
29,738.9
29,733.9
5.003
24,822.1
4,916.9
%
Change
0.05%
­
0.02%
­
0.02%
0.06%
­
0.02%
­
0.06%

Turkey
Baseline
$
0.6898
5,298.3
5,297.0
1.250
4,919.3
379.0
$
0.00106
­
0.1533%
0.0056%

Post­
regulatory
$
0.6901
5,297.1
5,295.8
1.251
4,918.3
378.8
%
Change
0.04%
­
0.02%
­
0.02%
0.05%
­
0.02%
­
0.05%
Table
2E
Projected
Compliance
Cost
Impacts
on
Meat
Product
Markets:
Option
4
Annualized
Compliance
Costs
per
Pound
of
Total
Industry
Production
Net
Domestic
Quantity
Domestic
Quantity
Per
Unit
Percent
Percent
Price
Quantity
Supply
Imported
Demand
Exported
Compliance
Shift
in
Shift
in
Subcategory
($/
lb.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
Costs
Supply
Demand
Beef
Baseline
$
1.1105
29,260.0
26,386.0
2,874.0
26,843.0
2,417.0
$
0.00088
­
0.0795%
0.0088%

Post­
regulatory
$
1.1110
29,252.7
26,376.2
2,876.5
26,837.3
2,415.4
%
Change
0.04%
­
0.02%
­
0.04%
0.09%
­
0.02%
­
0.07%

Pork
Baseline
$
1.0038
20,105.0
19,278.0
827.0
18,827.0
1,278.0
$
0.00056
­
0.0560%
0.0143%

Post­
regulatory
$
1.0041
20,102.2
19,274.9
827.3
18,824.8
1,277.4
%
Change
0.03%
­
0.01%
­
0.02%
0.04%
­
0.01%
­
0.05%

Chicken
Baseline
$
0.5807
29,746.0
29,741.0
5.000
24,826.0
4,920.0
$
0.00184
­
0.3160%
0.0114%

Post­
regulatory
$
0.5812
29,732.8
29,727.8
5.005
24,818.3
4,914.5
%
Change
0.09%
­
0.04%
­
0.04%
0.11%
­
0.03%
­
0.11%

Turkey
Baseline
$
0.6898
5,298.3
5,297.0
1.250
4,919.3
379.0
$
0.00191
­
0.2773%
0.0016%

Post­
regulatory
$
0.6903
5,296.1
5,294.8
1.251
4,917.4
378.7
%
Change
0.07%
­
0.04%
­
0.04%
0.08%
­
0.04%
­
0.08%
Table
3A
Projected
Compliance
Cost
Impacts
on
Meat
Product
Markets:
Option
2
Annualized
Compliance
Costs
per
Pound
of
Direct
Discharger
Production
Net
Domestic
Quantity
Domestic
Quantity
Per
Unit
Percent
Percent
Price
Quantity
Supply
Imported
Demand
Exported
Compliance
Shift
in
Shift
in
Subcategory
($/
lb.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
Costs
Supply
Demand
Beef
Baseline
$
1.1105
29,260.0
26,386.0
2,874.0
26,843.0
2,417.0
$
0.00065
­
0.0582%
0.0039%

Post­
regulatory
$
1.1108
29,254.4
26,378.6
2,875.8
26,838.5
2,415.9
%
Change
0.03%
­
0.02%
­
0.03%
0.06%
­
0.02%
­
0.05%

Pork
Baseline
$
1.0038
20,105.0
19,278.0
827.0
18,827.0
1,278.0
$
0.00005
­
0.0046%
0.0116%

Post­
regulatory
$
1.0039
20,105.4
19,278.3
827.1
18,827.6
1,277.9
%
Change
0.01%
0.002%
0.002%
0.01%
0.003%
­
0.01%

Chicken
Baseline
$
0.5807
29,746.0
29,741.0
5.000
24,826.0
4,920.0
$
0.00111
­
0.1911%
0.0006%

Post­
regulatory
$
0.5810
29,737.9
29,732.9
5.003
24,821.0
4,916.8
%
Change
0.05%
­
0.03%
­
0.03%
0.06%
­
0.02%
­
0.06%

Turkey
Baseline
$
0.6898
5,298.3
5,297.0
1.250
4,919.3
379.0
$
0.00393
­
0.5694%
­
0.0007%

Post­
regulatory
$
0.6908
5,293.8
5,292.5
1.252
4,915.4
378.4
%
Change
0.15%
­
0.08%
­
0.08%
0.17%
­
0.08%
­
0.17%
Table
3B
Projected
Compliance
Cost
Impacts
on
Meat
Product
Markets:
Option
2
+
P
Annualized
Compliance
Costs
per
Pound
of
Direct
Discharger
Production
Net
Domestic
Quantity
Domestic
Quantity
Per
Unit
Percent
Percent
Price
Quantity
Supply
Imported
Demand
Exported
Compliance
Shift
in
Shift
in
Subcategory
($/
lb.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
Costs
Supply
Demand
Beef
Baseline
$
1.1105
29,260.0
26,386.0
2,874.0
26,843.0
2,417.0
$
0.00261
­
0.2350%
0.0252%

Post­
regulatory
$
1.1119
29,238.3
26,357.0
2,881.3
26,826.0
2,412.3
%
Change
0.13%
­
0.07%
­
0.11%
0.25%
­
0.06%
­
0.19%

Pork
Baseline
$
1.0038
20,105.0
19,278.0
827.0
18,827.0
1,278.0
$
0.00134
­
0.1332%
0.0447%

Post­
regulatory
$
1.0046
20,099.0
19,271.2
827.8
18,822.6
1,276.5
%
Change
0.08%
­
0.03%
­
0.04%
0.10%
­
0.02%
­
0.12%

Chicken
Baseline
$
0.5807
29,746.0
29,741.0
5.00
24,826.0
4,920.0
$
0.00588
­
1.0125%
0.0241%

Post­
regulatory
$
0.5824
29,703.4
29,698.4
5.02
24,800.8
4,902.6
%
Change
0.30%
­
0.14%
­
0.14%
0.34%
­
0.10%
­
0.35%

Turkey
Baseline
$
0.6898
5,298.3
5,297.0
1.250
4,919.3
379.0
$
0.00923
­
1.3386%
­
0.0012%

Post­
regulatory
$
0.6922
5,287.7
5,286.5
1.255
4,910.2
377.5
%
Change
0.34%
­
0.20%
­
0.20%
0.40%
­
0.18%
­
0.40%
Table
3C
Projected
Compliance
Cost
Impacts
on
Meat
Product
Markets:
Option
2.5
Annualized
Compliance
Costs
per
Pound
of
Direct
Discharger
Production
Net
Domestic
Quantity
Domestic
Quantity
Per
Unit
Percent
Percent
Price
Quantity
Supply
Imported
Demand
Exported
Compliance
Shift
in
Shift
in
Subcategory
($/
lb.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
Costs
Supply
Demand
Beef
Baseline
$
1.1105
29,260.0
26,386.0
2,874.0
26,843.0
2,417.0
$
0.00111
­
0.1001%
0.0111%

Post­
regulatory
$
1.1111
29,250.8
26,373.7
2,877.1
26,835.8
2,415.0
%
Change
0.05%
­
0.03%
­
0.05%
0.11%
­
0.03%
­
0.08%

Pork
Baseline
$
1.0038
20,105.0
19,278.0
827.0
18,827.0
1,278.0
$
0.00058
­
0.0575%
0.0204%

Post­
regulatory
$
1.0041
20,102.5
19,275.1
827.4
18,825.2
1,277.3
%
Change
0.03%
­
0.01%
­
0.01%
0.04%
­
0.01%
­
0.05%

Chicken
Baseline
$
0.5807
29,746.0
29,741.0
5.00
24,826.0
4,920.0
$
0.00228
­
0.3918%
0.0049%

Post­
regulatory
$
0.5814
29,729.4
29,724.4
5.01
24,816.0
4,913.4
%
Change
0.11%
­
0.06%
­
0.06%
0.13%
­
0.04%
­
0.13%

Turkey
Baseline
$
0.6898
5,298.3
5,297.0
1.250
4,919.3
379.0
$
0.00635
­
0.9200%
0.0017%

Post­
regulatory
$
0.6914
5,291.0
5,289.8
1.253
4,913.1
378.0
%
Change
0.24%
­
0.14%
­
0.14%
0.28%
­
0.13%
­
0.27%
Table
3D
Projected
Compliance
Cost
Impacts
on
Meat
Product
Markets:
Option
2.5
+
P
Annualized
Compliance
Costs
per
Pound
of
Direct
Discharger
Production
Net
Domestic
Quantity
Domestic
Quantity
Per
Unit
Percent
Percent
Price
Quantity
Supply
Imported
Demand
Exported
Compliance
Shift
in
Shift
in
Subcategory
($/
lb.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
Costs
Supply
Demand
Beef
Baseline
$
1.1105
29,260.0
26,386.0
2,874.0
26,843.0
2,417.0
$
0.00311
­
0.2804%
0.0299%

Post­
regulatory
$
1.1122
29,234.1
26,351.4
2,882.7
26,822.7
2,411.4
%
Change
0.15%
­
0.09%
­
0.13%
0.30%
­
0.08%
­
0.23%

Pork
Baseline
$
1.0038
20,105.0
19,278.0
827.0
18,827.0
1,278.0
$
0.00161
­
0.1603%
0.0534%

Post­
regulatory
$
1.0047
20,097.8
19,269.8
828.0
18,821.7
1,276.1
%
Change
0.09%
­
0.04%
­
0.04%
0.12%
­
0.03%
­
0.15%

Chicken
Baseline
$
0.5807
29,746.0
29,741.0
5.00
24,826.0
4,920.0
$
0.00680
­
1.1716%
0.0277%

Post­
regulatory
$
0.5827
29,696.7
29,691.7
5.02
24,796.8
4,899.9
%
Change
0.34%
­
0.17%
­
0.17%
0.39%
­
0.12%
­
0.41%

Turkey
Baseline
$
0.6898
5,298.3
5,297.0
1.25
4,919.3
379.0
$
0.01150
­
1.6671%
0.0003%

Post­
regulatory
$
0.6928
5,285.1
5,283.9
1.26
4,908.0
377.1
%
Change
0.43%
­
0.25%
­
0.25%
0.50%
­
0.23%
­
0.49%
Table
3E
Projected
Compliance
Cost
Impacts
on
Meat
Product
Markets:
Option
4
Annualized
Compliance
Costs
per
Pound
of
Direct
Discharger
Production
Net
Domestic
Quantity
Domestic
Quantity
Per
Unit
Percent
Percent
Price
Quantity
Supply
Imported
Demand
Exported
Compliance
Shift
in
Shift
in
Subcategory
($/
lb.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
(
lbs.
x
1
mil.)
Costs
Supply
Demand
Beef
Baseline
$
1.1105
29,260.0
26,386.0
2,874.0
26,843.0
2,417.0
$
0.00353
­
0.3174%
0.0430%

Post­
regulatory
$
1.1124
29,231.6
26,347.6
2,884.0
26,821.1
2,410.5
%
Change
0.17%
­
0.10%
­
0.15%
0.35%
­
0.08%
­
0.27%

Pork
Baseline
$
1.0038
20,105.0
19,278.0
827.0
18,827.0
1,278.0
$
0.00180
­
0.1790%
0.0699%

Post­
regulatory
$
1.0049
20,097.6
19,269.4
828.2
18,821.8
1,275.8
%
Change
0.11%
­
0.04%
­
0.04%
0.14%
­
0.03%
­
0.17%

Chicken
Baseline
$
0.5807
29,746.0
29,741.0
5.00
24,826.0
4,920.0
$
0.01249
­
2.1507%
0.0162%

Post­
regulatory
$
0.5843
29,654.7
29,649.6
5.04
24,770.7
4,884.0
%
Change
0.61%
­
0.31%
­
0.31%
0.70%
­
0.22%
­
0.73%

Turkey
Baseline
$
0.6898
5,298.3
5,297.0
1.25
4,919.3
379.0
$
0.02080
­
3.0152%
­
0.0307%

Post­
regulatory
$
0.6950
5,274.3
5,273.0
1.26
4,898.6
375.7
%
Change
0.75%
­
0.45%
­
0.45%
0.87%
­
0.42%
­
0.87%
