1
Preliminary
Model
Testing
and
Next
Steps
Time
To
Death
0
100
200
300
400
500
Hours
Dead/

Hr
PDF
(
Probability
of
N
Deaths/
25)

0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0
5
10
15
20
25
Number
Dead
Probability
Mean
Fraction
of
Total
Dose
by
Pathway
for
Fatalities
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Dose
fraction
by
Pathway
Food
Puddle
Dew
Inhal:
Vapor
Inhal:
Spray
Dermal:
Contact
Dermal:
Spray
2
Model
Test
Setup
Row
Crop/
0.1
vs
0.3
Crop
type/
height
(
m)

Chemical
Properties
0.77
Pan
Evaporation
Rate
(
cm/
day)

Meteorology
8
am
Hour
of
Application
3
Rainfall
Duration
(
hours)
0.75
Rate
(
lbs/
A)
2.17E­
07
Henry's
Law
Constant(
atm/
m3/
mol)
Insects
3.19
Forage
2.72
Wildlife
Food
Idem
½
life
(
days)
24
Rain
Lag
(
hours
after
application)
1
Rainfall
(
cm)
Ground
Method
Application
Method
and
Rate
Input
Model
Parameter
3
Model
Test
Setup
cont.

2.72
Foliar
Dissipation
Half
life
(
Days)
9.1
Bird
Oral
LD
50
(
mg/
kg)

Toxicological
Properties
7.8E­
06
Dislodgeable
Foliar
Residue
Adj.
Factor
30
K
ow
Yes
Rain
Fall
Included
H
2
O
28
Soil
28
Water
and
Soil
½
Life
(
days)
9.6
Rat
Acute
Inhalation
LD
50
(
mg/
kg)
5.7
slope
Field
Resident
Insectivore
Generic
Species
1.9
Dislodgeable
Foliar
Residue
½
Life(
days)
37.9
K
oc
Chemical
Properties
cont.
Input
Model
Parameter
4
0.928
Pesticide
Retention
Rate
(
fraction
of
dose/
hr)
No
data
Bird
Dermal
LD
50
(
mg/
kg)
6.0
Rat
Acute
Oral
LD
50
(
mg/
kg)

Toxicological
Properties
cont.
Input
Model
Parameter
Model
Test
Setup
cont.
5
Preliminary
Model
Testing
Crop
Height
>
0.15
Exposure
Pathway
Switches
Food
Ingestion
On
Puddle
On
Dew
On
Inhalation:
Vapor
On
Inhalation:
Spray
On
Dermal
Contact
On
Dermal
Spray
On
6
Preliminary
Model
Testing
Results
Crop
Height
>
0.15
m
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
SD
Food
Ingestion
0
0.869
0.197
0.179
Puddle
0
0.918
0.353
0.237
Dew
0
0.487
0.013
0.033
Inhalation:
Vapor
0
0.072
0.02
0.014
Inhalation:
Spray
0
0.106
0.03
0.02
Dermal
Contact
0
0.512
0.129
0.063
Dermal
Spray
0
0.998
0.258
0.171
Fractional
Dose
Distribution
by
Pathway
(
dead
birds)
Mean
Fraction
of
Total
Dose
by
Pathway
for
Fatalities
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Dose
fraction
by
Pathway
Food
Puddle
Dew
Inhal:
Vapor
Inhal:
Spray
Dermal:
Contact
Dermal:
Spray
7
Birds:
10,000
Birds
with
no
exposures:
1
Dead
Birds:
3,519
Risk
0.35193
Adjusted
Risk
0.35196
Testing
Results
Crop
Height
>
0.15
m
CCDF
(
Probability
of
N
or
More
Deaths/
25)

0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0
5
10
15
20
25
Number
Dead
Probability
PDF
(
Probability
of
N
Deaths/
25)

0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0
5
10
15
20
25
Number
Dead
Probability
Time
To
Death
0
1000
2000
3000
Hours
Dead/

Hr
Mean
dead
per
25
=
8.8
S.
D
=
2.4
Direct
Dermal
Spray
Puddle
as
Drinking
Water
Source
8
Preliminary
Model
Testing
Results
Crop
Height
<
0.15
Exposure
Pathway
Switches
Food
Ingestion
On
Puddle
On
Dew
On
Inhalation:
Vapor
Off
Inhalation:
Spray
Off
Dermal
Contact
Off
Dermal
Spray
Off
9
Test
Results
Crop
Height
<
.15
m
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
SD
Food
Ingestion
0
1
0.327
0.294
Puddle
0
1
0.658
0.301
Dew
0
0.96
0.015
0.038
Inhalation:
Vapor
0
0
0
0
Inhalation:
Spray
0
0
0
0
Dermal
Contact
0
0
0
0
Dermal
Spray
0
0
0
0
Mean
Fraction
of
Total
Dose
by
Pathway
for
Fatalities
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Dose
fraction
by
Pathway
Food
Puddle
Dew
Inhal:
Vapor
Inhal:
Spray
Dermal:
Contact
Dermal:
Spray
10
Test
Results
Crop
Height
<
.15
m
Birds:
10,000
Birds
with
no
exposures:
0
Dead
Birds:
2,500
Risk
0.25005
Adjusted
Risk
0.25005
CCDF
(
Probability
of
N
or
More
Deaths/
25)

0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0
5
10
15
20
25
Number
Dead
Probability
PDF
(
Probability
of
N
Deaths/
25)

0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0
5
10
15
20
25
Number
Dead
Probability
Time
To
Death
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Hours
Dead/

Hr
Mean
dead
per
25
=
6.3
S.
D
=
2.1
Puddle
as
Drinking
Water
Source
11
Preliminary
Model
Testing
Results
Crop
Height
>
0.15,
No
Rainfall
Exposure
Pathway
Switches
Food
Ingestion
On
Puddle
Off
Dew
On
Inhalation:
Vapor
On
Inhalation:
Spray
On
Dermal
Contact
On
Dermal
Spray
On
12
Crop
Height
<
.15
m
No
Rain
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
SD
Food
Ingestion
0
0.929
0.404
0.24
Puddle
0
0
0
0
Dew
0
0.421
0.025
0.047
Inhalation:
Vapor
0
0.09
0.028
0.019
Inhalation:
Spray
0
0.129
0.04
0.028
Dermal
Contact
0
0.447
0.146
0.107
Dermal
Spray
0
0.881
0.356
0.244
Mean
Fraction
of
Total
Dose
by
Pathway
for
Fatalities
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Dose
fraction
by
Pathway
Food
Puddle
Dew
Inhal:
Vapor
Inhal:
Spray
Dermal:
Contact
Dermal:
Spray
13
Crop
.
0.15
No
Rain
Birds:
10,000
Birds
with
no
exposures:
0
Dead
Birds:
1,158
Risk
0.11588
Adjusted
Risk
0.11588
CCDF
(
Probability
of
N
or
More
Deaths/
25)

0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0
5
10
15
20
25
Number
Dead
Probability
PDF
(
Probability
of
N
Deaths/
25)

0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0
5
10
15
20
25
Number
Dead
Probability
Time
To
Death
0
100
200
300
400
Hours
Dead/

Hr
Direct
Dermal
Spray
Mean
dead
per
25
=
2.8
S.
D
=
1.7
14
Preliminary
Model
Testing
Crop
Height
>
0.15,
Water/
Soil
½
Life
=
1
day
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
SD
Food
Ingestion
0
0.908
0.244
0.198
Puddle
0
0.881
0.29
0.218
Dew
0
0.764
0.016
0.042
Inhalation:
Vapor
0
0.064
0.018
0.011
Inhalation:
Spray
0
0.04
0.011
0.007
Dermal
Contact
0.001
0.573
0.15
0.071
Dermal
Spray
0
0.908
0.271
0.167
Mean
Fraction
of
Total
Dose
by
Pathway
for
Fatalities
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Dose
fraction
by
Pathway
Food
Puddle
Dew
Inhal:
Vapor
Inhal:
Spray
Dermal:
Contact
Dermal:
Spray
15
Crop
Height
>
0.15,

Water/
Soil
½
Life
=
1
day
Birds:
10,000
Birds
with
no
exposures:
0
Dead
Birds:
2,744
Risk
0.27445
Adjusted
Risk
0.27445
CCDF
(
Probability
of
N
or
More
Deaths/
25)

0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0
5
10
15
20
25
Number
Dead
Probability
PDF
(
Probability
of
N
Deaths/
25)

0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0
5
10
15
20
25
Number
Dead
Probability
Time
To
Death
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Hours
Dead/

Hr
Mean
dead
per
25
=
6.8
S.
D
=
2.2
16
Summary
of
Preliminary
Testing
of
Model
Output
on
Influence
of
Crop
Height,
Rainfall,
and
H2O
&
Soil
½
Life
Mean
Fraction
Dose
By
Pathway
0.27
0.15
0.29
0.24
0.27
Crop
>
0.15
Rain
H
2
O/
Soil
½
life
1
day
0.36
0.15
0
0.40
0.11
Crop
>
0.15
m
No
Rain
H
2
O/
Soil
½
life
28
days
0
0
0.67
0.32
0.25
Crop
<
0.15
m
Rain
H
2
O/
Soil
½
life
28
days
0.26
0.13
0.35
0.20
0.35
Crop
>
0.15
m
Rain
H
2
O/
Soil
½
life
28
days
Dermal
Spray
Dermal
Con
Pud
Food
Risk
Scenario
Ground
Appl.,
0.75
lb/
A,
Field
Resident
Insectivore.

LD50
=
9.1mg/
kg,
Slope
5.7
17
Next
Steps
for
Moving
Toward
Implementation
°
Complete
Parameterization
of
Model
°
Complete
Testing
of
Code
°
Conduct
Sensitivity
Analysis
°
Complete
Documentation
of
Model
°
Develop
User
Manual
°
Conduct
Beta
Testing
°
Modify
Model
and
Supporting
Materials
°
QA/
QC
Model
and
Supporting
Materials
°
Initiate
Training
of
Staff
Scientists
18
Future
Model
Developments
°
Expand
model
to
address
additional
application
methods
and
formulations
(
baits,
granular
products,

etc.)

°
Expand
Model
to
address
reproductive
impairment
from
pesticide
exposures
°
Expand
model
to
address
other
taxonomic
groups
(
mammals,
reptiles,
amphibians)

°
Develop
Links
of
Model
outputs
directly
with
Population
Models
under
development
