                                       
                       Technical Support Document (TSD)
          for the Final Revised CSAPR Update for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS
                      Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2020-0272
                                       
	
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                        Ozone Transport Policy Analysis
                                Final Rule TSD
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                     U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                          Office of Air and Radiation
                                  March 2021
      The analysis presented in this document supports the EPA's final Revised Cross-State Air Pollution Rule Update for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS  (Revised CSAPR Update). This TSD includes analysis to help quantify upwind state emissions that significantly contribute to nonattainment or interfere with maintenance of the 2008 ozone NAAQS in downwind states and quantification of emission budgets (i.e., limits on emissions) and the resulting effects on air quality. The analysis is described in Sections VI and VII of the preamble to the rule. This TSD also broadly describes how the EPA used historical data and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) to inform air quality modeling, budget setting, and policy analysis aspects of this rule.   Finally, this TSD includes an assessment on the effects of ozone concentrations on forest health.  This TSD is organized as follows:

A.  Background on EPA's Analysis to Quantify Emissions that Significantly Contribute to Nonattainment or Interfere with Maintenance of the 2008 Ozone NAAQS 
B. 	Using Engineering Analytics and Integrated Planning Model (IPM) to Assess Air Quality Modeling, EGU NOx Mitigation Strategies, and Policy Impacts 
C.	Calculating Budgets from Historical Data and IPM Analysis 
	1. Calculating 2021-2025 engineering baseline for NOx (from adjusted historical data)
   2. Estimating impacts of combustion and post combustion controls on state emission budgets 
   3. Estimating emission reduction potential from generation shifting 
   4. Variability limits and RIA scenarios 
D. Analysis of Air Quality Responses to Emission Changes Using an Ozone Air Quality Assessment Tool (AQAT) 
   1. Introduction: development of the ozone AQAT
   2. Details on the construction of the ozone AQAT
   3. Description of analytical results
   4. Comparison between the air quality assessment tool estimates
E. Observations on Cost and Air Quality Factors for 2024
F. Assessment of the Effects of Ozone on Forest Health

      
 Background on EPA's Analysis to Quantify Emissions that Significantly Contribute to Nonattainment or Interfere with Maintenance of the 2008 Ozone NAAQS

      In the preamble, EPA describes the 4-Step Good Neighbor Framework that it is applying to identify upwind states' emissions that significantly contribute to nonattainment or interfere with maintenance with respect to the 2008 ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) in other states and to implement appropriate emission reductions. This framework was used in the original CSAPR rulemaking to address interstate transport with respect to the 1997 ozone NAAQS and the 1997 and 2006 PM2.5 NAAQS and was also used in the 2016 CSAPR Update to address interstate transport with respect to the 2008 ozone NAAQS. 
      The first step of the Good Neighbor Framework uses air quality analysis to identify nonattainment and maintenance receptors for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. The second step of the framework uses further air quality analysis to identify upwind states whose ozone pollution contributions to these monitoring sites meet or exceed a specified threshold and therefore merit further analysis. See section V of the preamble for details on applying these steps with respect to interstate emissions transport for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.  
      The third step in the Good Neighbor Framework quantifies upwind state emissions that significantly contribute to nonattainment or interfere with maintenance of the 2008 ozone NAAQS at the downwind receptors, and identifies the electricity generating unit (EGU) NOX emission budgets and/or non-EGU emissions reduction for each state that represent the reduction of these emissions levels. See section VI of the preamble with respect to interstate emissions transport for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.  Finally, the fourth step of the Good Neighbor Framework implements the emission budgets in each state through the CSAPR NOX ozone season allowance trading program or other enforceable mechanism.  See section VII of the preamble for details on implementation for this rule.  
      This TSD primarily addresses step three of the Good Neighbor Framework related to EGU emissions as well as to the effects on air quality of both EGU and non-EGU emissions reductions.  In order to establish EGU NOX emissions budgets for each linked upwind state, EPA first identifies various possible uniform levels of NOx control stringency based on available EGU NOX control strategies and represented by cost thresholds. The EGU emission reductions pertaining to each level of control stringency are derived using historical data, engineering analyses, and EPA's integrated planning model (IPM) for the power sector as described in sections B and C of this TSD. The adjusted historical data and the model data are combined in order to quantify a series of potential EGU NOX emission budgets for each linked upwind state at each level of uniform NOX control stringency. A similar assessment for one scenario was done for non-EGUs.  Next, EPA uses the ozone Air Quality Assessment Tool (AQAT) to estimate the air quality impacts of the upwind state emissions reductions on downwind ozone pollution levels for each of the assessed cost threshold levels. Specifically, EPA looks at the magnitude of air quality improvement at each receptor at each level of control, it also examines whether receptors change status (shifting from either nonattainment to maintenance, or from maintenance to attainment), and looks at the individual contributions of each state to each of its receptors. See section D in this TSD for discussion of the development and use of the ozone AQAT. 
      Finally, the EPA uses this air quality information within the multi-factor test, along with NOX reduction potential, cost, and other considerations to select a particular level of uniform NOX control stringency that addresses each state's significant contribution to nonattainment and interference with maintenance (see Section VI.D of the preamble for additional information).  
      In this TSD, EPA assesses the EGU NOX mitigation potential for all states in the contiguous U.S. EPA assessed the air quality impacts for all monitors in the contiguous U.S. from emission reductions that met the criteria for developing air quality contribution estimates. In applying the multi-factor test for purposes of identifying the appropriate level of control, the EPA evaluated NOX reductions and air quality improvements at the four receptors from the two home states and the 12 upwind states that were linked to downwind receptors in step two of the 4-Step Good Neighbor Framework.  The 12 upwind linked states are listed in Table A-1 below. 
      
      Table A-1.  Upwind States Evaluated in the Multi-factor Test
      
                               Ozone Season NOX
Illinois
New Jersey
Indiana
New York
Kentucky
Ohio
Louisiana
Pennsylvania
Maryland
Virginia
Michigan
West Virginia
      
      
 Using the Engineering Analytics Tool and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) to Assess Air Quality Modeling, EGU NOx Mitigation Strategies, and Policy Impacts 

      Similar to the final CSAPR Update, EPA relied on adjusted historical data (engineering analytics) and its power sector modeling platform using IPM as part of the process to quantify significant contribution at step three within the 4-Step Good Neighbor Framework.  Historical data were adjusted through the engineering analytics tool and used along with IPM to analyze the ozone season NOX emission reductions available from EGUs at various uniform levels of NOX control stringency, represented by cost per ton, in each upwind state. Finally, IPM was used to evaluate compliance with the rule and the rule's regulatory control alternatives (i.e., compliance with the emission budgets, with a more stringent alternative, and with a less stringent alternative). EPA also used its engineering analytics tool and IPM projections to perform air quality assessment and sensitivity analysis for steps 1 and 2.
      The engineering analytics tool uses the latest historical representative emissions and operating data reported under 40 CFR part 75 by covered units (which were 2019 ozone-season data at the time of this analysis). It is a tool that builds estimates of future unit-level and state-level emissions based on exogenous changes to historical heat input and emissions data reflecting fleet changes known to occur subsequent to the last year of available data. See Section C. Calculating Budgets from Historical Data and IPM Analysis for a detailed description of the engineering analytics tool.
      IPM is a multiregional, dynamic, deterministic linear programming model of the U.S. electric power sector that EPA uses to analyze cost and emissions impacts of environmental policies. All IPM cases for this rule included representation of the Title IV SO2 cap and trade program; the NOX SIP Call; the CSAPR and CSAPR Update regional cap and trade programs; consent decrees and settlements; and state and federal rules as listed in the IPM documentation referenced above. 
      Application of the 4-Step Good Neighbor Framework requires robust data collection, IPM modeling and engineering analytics is time consuming.  Rather than freezing all IPM and engineering analytic data sets at the outset of EPA's analysis for the rule, the EPA allowed for ongoing improvement of the relied-upon EGU data.  As a result, each step of EPA's analysis for the final rule is informed by the best available data at the time the analysis was conducted.  
      In the power sector modeling done for this rule, the EPA needed to quantify emissions for three different analytic purposes.  The first purpose was to provide future base case EGU emissions for input to air quality modeling to identify nonattainment and maintenance receptors and quantify interstate contribution to inform steps 1 and 2 of the 4-Step Good Neighbor Framework. This base case incorporated the most important fleet changes and retrofits identified through comments up to Fall of 2019 using the National Electricity Energy Data System (NEEDS) EGU inventory, January 8, 2020 version. The version of the NEEDS file reflects EGU fleet updates through November 2019. 
      The second purpose was to construct an illustrative base case and control case to study the potential cost and reduction potential of different uniform technology scenarios. This set of cases is referred to as the "Illustrative Cases." These illustrative cases are primarily cost threshold runs that EPA performed where the agency would first adjust the base case to reflect the relevant control technologies being considered and would then perform a sensitivity where a dollar per ton price constraint (e.g., $1,600 per ton) was applied to that adjusted base case to estimate the additional reductions to be expected from generation shifting at a dollar per ton level commensurate with the technology operating cost. 
      The third purpose was to estimate system impacts of the final rule and confirm the impact of implementing the state emissions budgets in a region-wide trading program. This set of cases is referred to as the "Final Policy Cases." For the Final Policy Cases, the EPA applied the state emission budgets and corresponding state and regional caps to the same base case used in the illustrative cases.  EPA also performed a "less stringent" and "more stringent" control scenario policy case using lower and higher state emission budgets respectively. The "Final Cases" were used to inform the cost and benefits of this rulemaking, as described in the Regulatory Impact Analysis, or RIA, for this rule.
      Table B-1 below summarizes the various IPM runs conducted and Appendix C provides further details on each of these scenarios.   

      

Table B-1. Summary of Sets of Scenarios.

Air Quality Modeling Base Case
Illustrative Cases
Final Policy Cases
Scenarios Run
Base Case (IPM)

Base Case Sensitivity (Engineering Analytics)



Base Case (IPM)

Base Case (Engineering Analytics)

Uniform Control/Cost Threshold (IPM and Engineering Analytics)



Policy Cases (IPM)
What Analysis Each Set of Runs Informs
Base Case air quality modeling to identify nonattainment and maintenance receptors and estimate upwind contributions (steps 1 and 2)
Development of a set of state emission budgets for each cost threshold (step 3)



RIA analysis to gauge system impacts when budgets are implemented through a trading program (step 4)
EGU Updates Captured in Each Set of Runs
Updates as of November 2019 for IPM scenarios, and as of December 2020 for Engineering Analytic Sensitivity

 Updates as of June 30, 2020 for IPM scenarios and December 2020 for Engineering Analytic scenarios






Updates as of December 2020
      

      For the "Illustrative Case" IPM runs, the EPA modeled the emissions that would occur within each state in a Base Case. The EPA then designed a series of IPM runs that imposed increasing cost thresholds representing uniform levels of NOX controls and tabulated those projected emissions for each state at each cost level.  The EPA has referred to these runs as "Cost Threshold Runs" and these tabulations, when combined with adjusted historical data, as "cost curves."  The cost curves report the remaining emissions at each cost threshold after the state has made emission reductions that are available up to the particular cost threshold analyzed.  
      In each Cost Threshold run, the EPA applied the applicable ozone-season cost level to all fossil-fuel-fired EGUs with a capacity greater than 25 MW in all states, though only the estimates for the four receptors, the two "home states" for those receptors, and the 12 linked states affect the results in Step 3. As described in the EGU NOX Mitigation Strategies Final Rule TSD, because of the time required to build advanced pollution controls, the model was prevented from building any new post-combustion controls, such as SCR or SNCR, before 2025, in response to the cost thresholds.  Similarly, the model was not enabled to build incremental new units in that time frame. In response to the ozone-season NOX cost, the modeling allows turning on idled existing SCR and SNCR, optimization of existing SCR, shifting generation to lower-NOX emitting EGUs, and adding or upgrading NOX combustion controls (such as state-of-the-art low NOX burners (LNB)) in 2021/2022.  In this TSD, we refer to state-of-the-art combustion controls, or SOA CC, generally, as combustion controls, or LNB).
      In these scenarios, EPA imposed cost thresholds of $500, $1,600, $1,800, $3,900, $5,800, $9,600 per ton of ozone season NOX. See Preamble Section VI for a discussion of how the cost thresholds were determined. Table B-2 below summarizes the reduction measures that are broadly available at various cost thresholds. 

Table B-2. Reduction strategies available to EGUs at each cost threshold. 
Cost Threshold ($ per ton Ozone-Season NOX)
Reduction Options
                                                                           $500
-Generation shifting
                                                                        $1,600 
-Above option; and
-Retrofitting state-of-the-art combustion controls;
-Optimizing idled SCRs (to 0.08 lb/MMBtu);
-Optimizing operating SCRs (to 0.08 lb/MMBtu);
                                                                        $1,800 
-Above options; and
-Optimizing operating SNCRs ($3,900 for optimizing idled SNCR)
                                                                        $5,800 
-Above options; and
-Installing SNCR on certain coal units lacking post-combustion retrofit
                                                                        $9,600 
-Same as above options; and
-Installing SCR on certain coal units lacking SCR post-combustion controls (rather than SNCR).
      
For both Engineering analytics and IPM:
 At $500/ton:
 Engineering Analytics  -  no change.
 IPM  - cost of $500 per ton applied to base case for EGUs > 25 MW.
 At $1,600/ton:
 Engineering Analytics  -  If 2019 adjusted baseline rate was greater than 0.08 lb/MMBtu for SCR controlled units, that rate and corresponding emissions were adjusted down to 0.08 lb/MMBtu starting in 2021; for units with LNB upgrade potential and an adjusted historical rate greater than 0.199 lb/MMBtu, their rates were adjusted downwards to 0.199 lb/MMBtu starting in 2022.
 IPM  - cost of $1,600 per ton applied for EGUs > 25 MW; units with existing SCRs have their emission rates lowered to the lower of their mode 4 NOX rate in NEEDS and the "widely achievable" optimized emissions rate of 0.08 lbs/MMBtu. 
 At $1,800/ton:
 Engineering Analytics  -  Same as $1,600/ton; additionally, units with SNCRs were given their mode 2 NOx rates if they were not already operating at that level or better in 2019.
 IPM  -  Same as $1,600/ton; 
            
 At $5,800/ton:
 Engineering Analytics  -  Same as $1,800/ton; additionally, coal units greater than 100 MW and lacking a post-combustion control were given a 25% reduction to adjusted historical baseline emissions starting in 2024 to reflect SNCR installation.
 IPM  -  Same as $1,800/ton; additionally, coal units greater than 100 MW and lacking a post combustion control were given a 25% reduction from their mode 2 rate reflecting SNCR installation, starting in model run year 2025.  Cost of $5,800 per ton applied for EGUs > 25 MW. Additionally, units with idled SNCRs were identified as units equipped with SNCR and mode 2 NOX rates in NEEDS greater than 0.30 lbs/MMBtu. These units were given NOX rates 25% lower to reflect SNCR operation.
            
 At $9,600/ton:
 Engineering Analytics  -  Same as $1,800/ton; additionally, coal units greater than 100 MW and lacking a SCR were given an emission rate equal to the greater of a reduction of 90% or 0.07 lb/MMBtu reflecting SCR installation starting in 2024.
 IPM  -  Same as $3,900/ton; additionally, coal units greater than 100 MW and lacking SCR were assigned a mode four emission rate of 0.07 lb/MMBtu reflecting SCR installation starting in model run year 2025. Cost of $9,600 per ton applied for EGUs > 25 MW.
            
	As described in preamble section VI.B, the EPA limited its assessment of generation shifting to reflect shifting only to other EGUs within the same state as a proxy for generation shifting that could occur during the near-term implementation timeframe of the rule. EPA did this by limiting state generation in each Cost Threshold run to not go below the level in its respective Base Case. EPA also limited the potential for any new build in response to the price signal in the near term as it was interested in capturing generation shifting among the existing fleet.
      Section C.1-3 of this TSD describes how state emissions budgets were calculated using a combination of historical data and data from the IPM cost threshold cases. Once these budgets were calculated, EPA used the budgets for covered states to conduct IPM Final Policy Cases to investigate the impact of compliance with the budgets calculated from the $500, $1,800, $9,600 per ton cases. These cases reflect a less stringent scenario, the final policy scenario, and a more stringent scenario. Specifically, the budgets informed by the Illustrative $1,800 per ton Cost Threshold case were used for the final policy scenario, and the budgets informed by the  Illustrative $500 and $9,600 per ton cost threshold cases informed the less and more stringent scenarios. These scenarios were used to inform the RIA. 
	To model these scenarios in IPM, EPA used the calculated state emissions budget and assurance levels (121% of the state emission budget) to set state and regional ozone-season NOX emissions limits. Additionally, EPA assumed a starting bank of allowances equal to 21% of the sum of the 12 states' budgets. States could individually emit up to their assurance levels in each run year, and collectively could not have emissions exceeding the sum of their regional budget and banked allowances in each run year. In the final policy scenario and the more stringent scenario, units with existing operating SCRs were assumed to operate them at the lower of their mode 4 NOX rate in NEEDS and the "widely achievable" emissions rate of 0.08 lb/MMBtu, as EPA determined this was a cost-effective mitigation strategy. Additionally, for these same two scenarios, coal units with identified combustion control upgrade potential were assumed to upgrade to state-of-the-art combustion controls. In all scenarios, the model provided the units the option to retrofit with post-combustion controls. While the EPA conservatively limited generation shifting in developing the state emission budgets, through use of state-level generation constraints, the EPA believes that generation shifting may occur broadly among states as a compliance mechanism and so removed that constraint for the IPM Final Policy Cases reflecting program implementation.


 Calculating Budgets from Historical Data and IPM Analysis 
   
      As described in Section VII.B of the preamble, similar to CSAPR Update, the EPA determined it was appropriate to calculate state emission budgets by combining historical emissions and heat input data with projections from IPM to derive state emission budgets. Section VII.B notes there are three primary steps in this process: 1) EPA determines a future year baseline using historical data, 2) EPA adjusts that baseline to reflect the combustion and post-combustion control mitigation measures deemed cost-effective at a given cost threshold, and 3) EPA factors in emission reduction potential from generation shifting at a cost threshold commensurate with that mitigation technology's control operation cost. Similar to CSAPR Update, in this final rule the EPA calculated state budgets with the following formula:
      
      2021 State OS NOX Budget = 2021 State OS Baseline Heat Input*[2021 State OS NOX Emissions Rate- 
         (2021 IPM Base Case OS NOX Emissions Rate - 2021 IPM Cost Threshold OS NOX Emissions 
      Rate)]

The first two variables in the equation are derived from historical data and are the primary determinants of states' emissions budgets. They are described in sections C.1 and C.2 below.  The last two variables are identified through IPM analysis and described in section C.3 below. In section C.4, EPA discusses variability limits and RIA scenarios.

 Calculating 2021-2025 Engineering Baseline for NOx (from adjusted historical data)
The underlying data and calculations described below can be found in the workbook titled (Appendix A  -  Final Rule State Emission Budget Calculations and Engineering Analytics). They are also available in the docket and on the EPA website.

EPA starts with 2019 reported, seasonal, historical NOx emissions and heat input data for each unit. This reflects the latest representative owner/operator reported data available at the time of EPA analysis. The NOx emissions data for units that report data to EPA under the Acid Rain Program (ARP), the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) and CSAPR Update Rule are aggregated to the summer/ozone season period (May-September). Because the unit-level NOx emissions for the summer/ozone-season period are relevant to determining ozone-season emissions budgets, those files are shown in the "unit 2021" through "unit 2025" sheets in the "Appendix A: Final Rule State Emission Budget Calculations and Engineering Analytics" file accompanying this document. In that file, unit-level details such as facility name, unit ID, unit type, capacity, etc. are shown in columns A through H of the "unit 2021" through "unit 2025" worksheets.  Reported historical data for these units such as historical emissions, heat input, generation, etc. are shown in columns I through L.  The 2019 historical emissions value is in column I.  The assumed future year baseline emissions estimate (e.g., 2021-2025) is shown in column U, and reflects either the same emissions level as that observed in 2019, or a modification of that value based on changes expected to the operational or pollution control status of that unit.  These modifications are made due to:
         
 Retirements - Emissions from units with upcoming confirmed retirement dates prior to that designated year are adjusted to zero. Retirement dates are identified through a combination of sources including EIA Form 860, utility-announced retirements, stakeholder and commenter feedback provided to EPA, and the National Electricity Energy Data System (NEEDS) December 2020 file. The impact of retirements on emissions is shown in column M. The retiring units are flagged in column N.
 
                                     2019
                           Future Year (e.g., 2021)
Unit x
10,000 MMBtu x .2 lb/MMBtu = 1 ton
0 MMBtu x .2 lb/MMBtu = 0 ton

 Coal to Gas Conversion  -  Emissions from coal units with scheduled conversions to natural gas fuel use by the designated future year are adjusted to reflect reduced emission rates associated with natural gas. To reflect a given unit's conversion to gas, that unit's future emission rates for NOx are assumed to be half of its 2019 coal-fired emission rates while utilization levels are assumed to remain the same.  Therefore, the future year estimated emissions for these converting units are expected to be half of 2019 levels for NOx.  Units expected to convert to gas are flagged using EIA Form 860, NEEDS June 2020, and stakeholder feedback.  The impact of coal to gas conversion for the future year is shown in column Q, flagged in column R. The example below pertains to NOx emission estimates.
 
                                     2019
                           Future Year (e.g., 2021)
Unit x
10,000 MMBtu x .2 lb/MMBtu = 1 ton
10,000 MMBtu x .1 lb/MMBtu = .5 ton

 Retrofits  -  Emissions from units with scheduled SCR or SNCR retrofits are adjusted to reflect the emission rates expected with new SCR installation (0.075 lb/MMBtu of NOx) and new SNCR (~25% representative decrease in emission rate)  and are assumed to operate at the same 2019 utilization levels.  These emission rates were multiplied by the affected unit's 2019 heat input to estimate the future year emission level.  The impact of post-combustion control retrofits on future year emissions assumptions is shown in column S, flagged in column T.
         
         For SNCR:
 
                                     2019
                           Future Year (e.g., 2021)
Unit x
10,000 MMBtu x .2 lb/MMBtu = 1 ton
10,000 MMBtu x .15 lb/MMBtu = .75 ton
         
   For SCR:
                                       
                                     2019
                           Future Year (e.g., 2021)
Unit x
10,000 MMBtu x .2 lb/MMBtu = 1 ton
10,000 MMBtu x .075 lb/MMBtu = .375 ton


 Other  -  EPA also made several unit-specific adjustments to 2019 emission levels to reflect forthcoming emission or emission rate requirements specified in consent decrees, BART requirements, and/or other revised permit limits.  The impacts for future year emission assumptions are shown in column U, flagged in column V.
         
 New Units  -  Emissions for new units are identified in the "New units" worksheet. They reflect under-construction and/or permitted units greater than 25 MW that are expected to be in commercial operation by the designated future year.  These assumed emission values for new units are reflected in column F and the online years are in column H. To obtain these emissions, EPA identified all new fossil-fired EGUs coming online after 2019 according to EIA Form 860 and in NEEDSv.6 December 2020.  EPA then identified the heat rate and capacity values for these units using EIA Form 860, NEEDSv.6 December 2020 and stakeholder-provided data.  Next, EPA identified the 2019 average seasonal capacity factor for similar units that came online between 2015-2019.  EPA used these seasonal capacity factors (e.g., 65% for NGCC), the unit's capacity, the unit's heat rate, and the unit's estimated NOx rate to estimate future year emissions (capacity x capacity factor x number of hours in ozone season x heat rate x NOx emission rate = NOx emissions).[,]  
 
                                     2019
                           Future Year (e.g., 2021)
Unit x
0 MMBtu x .0 lb/MMBtu = 0 ton
          100 MW * .65 *(153x24) *8000 Btu/KWh *.01 lb/MMBtu = 9 tons

After completing these steps, EPA has unit-level and state-level future year baselines that originate from the most recently reported representative data (2019) and incorporate known EGU fleet changes. The state-level file reflects a summation of the unit-level values and provides the state-level heat input value used as the first variable in the emissions budget formula below. It also provides the starting value for the second variable (i.e., showing the future year baseline emission rate) before any mitigation technologies beyond the baseline are incorporated.

      2021 State OS NOX Budget = 2021 State OS Baseline Heat Input*[2021 State OS NOX Emissions Rate- 
         (2021 IPM Base Case OS NOX Emissions Rate - 2021 IPM Cost Threshold OS NOX Emissions 
      Rate)]
    Estimating impacts of combustion and post combustion controls on state emission budgets 
   
Next, EPA evaluates the impact of the different combustion and post-combustion controls and establishes the impact on the state OS NOx Emission rate to complete the second variable in the equation above. Similar to the methodology above, EPA continued to adjust the historical data to reflect a future year with specific uniform control assumptions.  However, these adjustments were to capture changes incremental to the baseline reflecting different uniform control measures. EPA applied these adjustments for analytical purposes to all states, but only the 12 linked states' adjustments are relevant for emission budgets finalized in this rule. Each of these adjustments is shown incrementally for the relevant mitigation technology in the "unit 2021" through "unit 2025" worksheets.

 SCR optimization  -  Emissions from units with existing SCRs, but that operated at an emission rate greater than 0.08 lb/MMBtu in 2019, were adjusted downwards to reflect expected emissions when the SCR is operated to achieve a 0.08 lb/MMBtu emission rate.  The 0.08 lb/MMBtu emission rate was identified as the emission rate that reflected the fleet-average optimization assumption for SCR controlled units that were not currently optimizing their controls. The optimized emission rate is multiplied by baseline heat input levels to arrive at the future year emissions estimate.  The impact on future year emission assumptions is shown in column W and flagged in column X of the "unit 2021" through "unit 2025" worksheets. EPA notes this assumption only applies to ozone-season NOx as that is the season in which the Revised CSAPR Update Rule would likely incentivize such operation. In the final rule, EPA also incorporated a flag in column X, based on commenter input, for units with SCRs and a shared stack. For these units, based on commenter provided data, EPA did not assume potential emission reductions attributable to SCR optimization as explained in preamble section VI.B.  
 
                                     2019
                           Future Year (e.g., 2021)
Unit x
10,000 MMBtu x .2 lb/MMBtu = 1 ton
10,000 MMBtu x .08 lb/MMBtu = .4 ton

 State-of-the- art combustion controls  -  Emissions from units that were operating in 2019 without state-of-the-art combustion controls were adjusted downwards to reflect assumed installation of, or upgrade to, these controls and their expected emission rate impact.  EPA assumed a future year emission rate of 0.199 for units expected to install/upgrade combustion controls.  These emission rates were multiplied by each unit's future year baseline heat input to estimate its future emission level.  Details of EPA's assessment of state-of-the-art NOx combustion controls and corresponding emission rates are provided in the EGU NOx Mitigation Strategies Final Rule TSD.  The impact of state-of-the-art combustion controls on future year emission assumptions is shown in column Y and flagged in column Z of the "unit 2021" through "unit 2025" worksheets. EPA also incorporated a flag in column Z, based on commenter input, for units with a shared stack. For these units, based on commenter provided data, EPA did not assume potential emission reductions attributable to state-of-the-art combustion controls as explained in preamble section VI.B.  Note, these assumptions apply to both winter and ozone season emissions adjustments as the controls operate continuously once installed.

 
                                     2019
                           Future Year (e.g., 2021)
Unit x
10,000 MMBtu x .4 lb/MMBtu = 2 ton
10,000 MMBtu x .199lb/MMBtu = ~1 ton

 SNCR optimization -  Emissions from units with existing SNCRs, but that operated at an emission rate greater than the SNCR optimization rate, were adjusted downwards to reflect expected emissions when the SNCR is optimized. This emission rate was identified specific to each unit based on historical data and is described in the EGU NOx Mitigation Strategy Final Rule TSD. The optimized emission rate is multiplied by future year baseline heat input levels to arrive at the future year emissions estimate.  For the units affected by this adjustment, the impact on future year emission assumptions is shown in column AA and flagged in column AB of the "unit 2021" through "unit 2025" worksheets. Note, this assumption only applies to ozone-season NOx as that is the season in which the Revised CSAPR Update Rule would likely incentivize such installation and operation.
 
                                     2019
                           Future Year (e.g., 2021)
Unit x
10,000 MMBtu x .2 lb/MMBtu = 1 ton
10,000 MMBtu x .15 lb/MMBtu = .75 ton


 SNCR retrofit -  Emissions from coal units greater than 100 MW without post-combustion controls were adjusted downwards to reflect expected emissions if an SNCR were to be retrofitted on the unit. The emission rate was identified as 75% of the unit's baseline emission rate level (i.e., reflecting a 25% reduction from the technology). The adjusted emission rate is multiplied by future year baseline heat input levels to arrive at the future year emissions estimate for that technology.  For the units affected by this adjustment, the impact on future year emission assumptions is shown in column AC and flagged in column AD of the "unit 2021" through "unit 2025" worksheets. Note, this assumption only applies to ozone-season NOx as that is the season in which the Revised CSAPR Update Rule would likely incentivize such installation and operation.

 
                                     2019
                           Future Year (e.g., 2021)
Unit x
10,000 MMBtu x .2 lb/MMBtu = 1 ton
10,000 MMBtu x .15 lb/MMBtu = .75 ton

 SCR retrofit- Emissions from coal units greater than 100 MW without SCR controls were adjusted downwards to reflect expected emissions if an SCR were to be retrofitted on the unit. The emission rate was identified as 10% of the unit's baseline emission rate or 0.07 lb/MMBtu (i.e., a 90% reduction with an emission rate floor of 0.07 lb/MMBtu). The adjusted emission rate is multiplied by future year baseline heat input levels to arrive at the future year emissions estimate for that technology.  For the units affected by this adjustment, the impact on future year emission assumptions is shown in column AE and flagged in column AF of the "unit 2021" through "unit 2025" worksheets.  Note, this assumption only applies to ozone-season NOx as that is the period in which the Revised CSAPR Update Rule would likely incentivize such installation and operation.
 
                                     2019
                           Future Year (e.g., 2021)
Unit x
10,000 MMBtu x .2 lb/MMBtu = 1 ton
10,000 MMBtu x .07 lb/MMBtu = .35 ton

These adjustments for each uniform control technology resulted in adjusted OS NOx emissions, heat input, and emission rates at the unit-level.  When summed up to the state level, these changes resulted in the State OS NOx Emission Rate listed second in the formula below.  EPA notes, this emission rate for any given uniform control level times the baseline heat input would provide the state emissions budget without generation shifting. These pre-generation shifting emission budget levels at the state-level are visible in the worksheets titled "State 2021" through "State 2025" in the Appendix A: Final Rule State Emission Budget Calculations and Engineering Analytics workbook accompanying this document.
            
      State 2021 OS NOX Budget = 2021 State OS Baseline Heat Input*[2021 State OS NOX Emissions Rate- 
         (2021 IPM Base Case OS NOX Emissions Rate - 2021 IPM Cost Threshold OS NOX Emissions 
      Rate)]

    Estimating Emission Reduction Potential from Generation Shifting

The last two variables in the equation relate to emission reductions from generation shifting.  Here, as in the CSAPR Update, EPA uses the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) to capture the change in emission rate in a state's fossil-fuel fired power fleet when. While holding everything else equal, EPA applies a given dollar per ton marginal cost constraint.  EPA relies on IPM for this analysis as generation shifting occurs on a cost continuum and is a function of least-cost dispatch under different constraints.  To derive this value, EPA first prepares an adjusted base case that reflects all the combustion or post-combustion mitigation measures discussed above for a given cost threshold.  These adjusted base cases are specific to the uniform mitigation scenario.  For instance, for the $1,600 per ton scenario EPA adjusts its base case to reflect the optimization of SCRs and combustion control upgrades by adjusting the emission rates to the levels discussed above for relevant units not already achieving that level.  EPA then executes an IPM run with these new exogenous assumptions and observes the state-level emission rate for fossil-fuel fired units greater than 25 MW. This is the third variable in the emissions budget formula.

Next, EPA performs a sensitivity for these adjusted base case runs where it applies the same set of assumptions in variable three, but layers on a commensurate marginal cost price signal (e.g., $1,600 per ton).  In addition to the mitigation measures assumed, the entire fossil-fuel fired EGU fleet greater than 25 MW in the state is subjected to a cost-per-ton price associated with that technology.  The model solves for least-cost dispatch given this additional marginal cost constraints for seasonal ozone emissions. EPA observes the state-level emission rate for fossil-fuel fired units greater than 25 MW. This data point becomes the fourth variable in the state-emissions budget formula.  The difference between the third and fourth variables reflects the change in emission rate due solely to generation shifting at a given dollar per ton level.


      State 2021 OS NOX Budget = 2021 State OS Baseline Heat Input*[2021 State OS NOX Emissions Rate- 
         (2021 IPM Base Case OS NOX Emissions Rate - 2021 IPM Cost Threshold OS NOX Emissions 
      Rate)]

This difference in the state-level emission rate between the two IPM cases is shown in columns B through F in the worksheet titled "Generation Shifting". These values are in the Appendix A: Final Rule State Emission Budget Calculations and Engineering Analytics workbook accompanying this document.

      Once EPA calculated the change in emissions rate between the IPM adjusted base case and each cost threshold case, the EPA then subtracted this change in emissions rate from the state OS NOx emission rate without generation shifting (the second variable in the formula). This yielded state-level, historically-anchored, emission rates reflecting NOX reduction potential for a given uniform control measure.
      
      Finally, the EPA multiplied these rates by each state's adjusted heat input (historical heat input adjusted for retirements and new builds identified in variable one of the formula) to yield emission budgets for each cost threshold. The state budgets for the different cost thresholds are displayed in Table C-1 through C-5. EPA notes that budgets are calculated for all states for the purpose of AQAT analysis, as explained in section D of this TSD, even if the state is not covered by the Revised CSAPR Update Rule. 
      
      In addition to being shown below, the state-level emission budgets are calculated in the far right-hand side columns of each "State" worksheet for each mitigation technology scenario available that year.  These budgets reflect an application of the formula described above to the data in the spreadsheet.  These state-emission budgets reflect the inclusion of generation shifting. The difference between these final state-emission budgets shown in the far right columns that include "generation shifting" it the column title and the immediately preceding columns with the same column title but without "generation shifting" reflect the additional reduction due to generation shifting at a given cost threshold. 
       
      Generation shifting accounts for a small amount of emissions reductions relative to the combustion and post combustion control mitigation measures (see Table C-10). In its cost threshold modeling, EPA limited generation levels in a state to its base case level so that states would not achieve emission reductions by importing more generation from out-of-state EGUs and reducing in-state generation (e.g., emissions leakage).  This assumption ensures that the generation shifting-based reductions are, and can be achieved, within a state. EPA also only assumes generation shifting from the projected baseline fleet, it does not incorporate generation shifting from any assumed incremental new build capacity that could be incentivized by a price level. Finally, in EPA's budget setting process it only includes generation shifting at dollar per ton levels that encourage the optimization of existing or newly installed controls considered at that cost level.  Capturing reduction potential from generation shifting in the state's emission budgets is meant to preserve the incentive to implement EPA's identified control strategy.  Factoring generation shifting into the state emissions budgets helps promote an allowance price commensurate with these levels. In this rule, generation shifting is intended to be a mitigation measure supportive to those combustion and post-combustion control measures, not incremental to it.  Therefore, EPA designed its IPM analysis and utilized the results for emission budget purposes in a manner that did not allow for, or include, emission reductions from projected model new builds or retirements that occurred in response to a dollar per ton price signal.  Instead, EPA examined generation shifting that was expected to occur among the baseline fleet at cost threshold levels commensurate with post-combustion control operation (e.g., $1,600 per ton) at fossil fuel-fired units greater than 25 MW for 2021.

Table C-1. 2021 Emissions for States at Different Uniform Control Scenarios (Reflected by dollar  per ton) 
 
                                 OS NOx (tons)
 
2021 Baseline
 $500/ton
 0.08 SCR Optimization ($1,600/ton)
0.08 SCR Optimization + LNB ($1,600/ton)
0.08 SCR Optimization + LNB + SNCR Optimization ($1,800/ton)
Alabama
                                                                          7,786
                                                                          7,785
                                                                          7,786
                                                                          7,693
                                                                          7,693
Arizona
                                                                          5,389
                                                                          5,100
                                                                          4,616
                                                                          4,616
                                                                          4,616
Arkansas
                                                                          8,731
                                                                          8,655
                                                                          8,708
                                                                          8,708
                                                                          8,708
California
                                                                          1,112
                                                                          1,111
                                                                          1,062
                                                                          1,062
                                                                          1,061
Colorado
                                                                          7,484
                                                                          7,487
                                                                          7,471
                                                                          7,471
                                                                          7,449
Connecticut
                                                                            344
                                                                            316
                                                                            307
                                                                            307
                                                                            307
Delaware
                                                                            223
                                                                            223
                                                                            206
                                                                            206
                                                                            205
Florida
                                                                         15,286
                                                                         15,276
                                                                         13,869
                                                                         13,869
                                                                         13,788
Fort Mojave
                                                                             53
                                                                             53
                                                                             53
                                                                             53
                                                                             53
Georgia
                                                                          7,833
                                                                          7,833
                                                                          7,808
                                                                          7,808
                                                                          7,808
Idaho
                                                                            204
                                                                            204
                                                                            204
                                                                            204
                                                                            204
Illinois
                                                                          9,368
                                                                          9,348
                                                                          9,198
                                                                          9,198
                                                                          9,102
Indiana
                                                                         15,856
                                                                         15,677
                                                                         13,085
                                                                         13,085
                                                                         13,051
Iowa
                                                                          8,567
                                                                          8,447
                                                                          7,714
                                                                          7,659
                                                                          7,659
Kansas
                                                                          6,057
                                                                          6,053
                                                                          5,384
                                                                          5,384
                                                                          5,338
Kentucky
                                                                         15,588
                                                                         15,606
                                                                         15,307
                                                                         14,057
                                                                         14,051
Louisiana
                                                                         15,476
                                                                         15,430
                                                                         15,389
                                                                         15,389
                                                                         14,818
Maine
                                                                             67
                                                                             67
                                                                             67
                                                                             67
                                                                             67
Maryland
                                                                          1,501
                                                                          1,501
                                                                          1,499
                                                                          1,499
                                                                          1,499
Massachusetts
                                                                            336
                                                                            333
                                                                            333
                                                                            333
                                                                            331
Michigan
                                                                         13,898
                                                                         13,126
                                                                         12,732
                                                                         12,614
                                                                         12,610
Minnesota
                                                                          5,969
                                                                          5,842
                                                                          5,448
                                                                          5,448
                                                                          5,448
Mississippi
                                                                          8,070
                                                                          8,067
                                                                          8,065
                                                                          7,739
                                                                          7,739
Missouri
                                                                         12,439
                                                                         12,379
                                                                         11,352
                                                                         11,352
                                                                         11,276
Montana
                                                                          3,553
                                                                          3,553
                                                                          3,553
                                                                          3,553
                                                                          3,553
Navajo
                                                                          1,319
                                                                          1,319
                                                                          1,319
                                                                          1,319
                                                                          1,319
Nebraska
                                                                          8,078
                                                                          8,013
                                                                          8,037
                                                                          7,530
                                                                          7,530
Nevada
                                                                          2,434
                                                                          1,833
                                                                          1,456
                                                                          1,456
                                                                          1,456
New Hampshire
                                                                            386
                                                                            386
                                                                            299
                                                                            299
                                                                            299
New Jersey
                                                                          1,346
                                                                          1,346
                                                                          1,253
                                                                          1,253
                                                                          1,253
New Mexico
                                                                          4,656
                                                                          4,624
                                                                          4,502
                                                                          4,502
                                                                          4,488
New York
                                                                          3,469
                                                                          3,463
                                                                          3,416
                                                                          3,416
                                                                          3,416
North Carolina
                                                                         15,911
                                                                         15,814
                                                                         11,227
                                                                         11,227
                                                                         11,083
North Dakota
                                                                         11,885
                                                                         11,829
                                                                         11,774
                                                                         11,774
                                                                         11,135
Ohio
                                                                         15,829
                                                                         15,487
                                                                          9,690
                                                                          9,690
                                                                          9,690
Oklahoma
                                                                          8,964
                                                                          8,878
                                                                          8,717
                                                                          8,717
                                                                          8,717
Oregon
                                                                            350
                                                                            350
                                                                            350
                                                                            350
                                                                            350
Pennsylvania
                                                                         11,896
                                                                         11,807
                                                                          8,379
                                                                          8,379
                                                                          8,379
Rhode Island
                                                                            233
                                                                            233
                                                                            233
                                                                            233
                                                                            233
South Carolina
                                                                          4,979
                                                                          4,979
                                                                          3,839
                                                                          3,839
                                                                          3,839
South Dakota
                                                                            591
                                                                            583
                                                                            581
                                                                            581
                                                                            581
Tennessee
                                                                          4,547
                                                                          4,549
                                                                          4,367
                                                                          4,367
                                                                          4,367
Texas
                                                                         44,767
                                                                         43,841
                                                                         42,349
                                                                         42,349
                                                                         42,308
Utah
                                                                          6,729
                                                                          4,862
                                                                          4,837
                                                                          4,837
                                                                          4,837
Ute
                                                                          2,144
                                                                          2,144
                                                                          2,144
                                                                          2,144
                                                                          2,144
Vermont
                                                                             51
                                                                             51
                                                                             51
                                                                             51
                                                                             51
Virginia
                                                                          4,664
                                                                          4,661
                                                                          4,614
                                                                          4,345
                                                                          4,284
Washington
                                                                          1,609
                                                                          1,609
                                                                          1,609
                                                                          1,609
                                                                          1,603
West Virginia
                                                                         15,165
                                                                         15,017
                                                                         13,686
                                                                         13,205
                                                                         12,884
Wisconsin
                                                                          5,251
                                                                          5,120
                                                                          4,952
                                                                          4,952
                                                                          4,945
Wyoming
                                                                         11,480
                                                                         11,480
                                                                         11,366
                                                                         10,623
                                                                         10,623
12 Linked States Total
                                                                        124,057
                                                                        122,469
                                                                        108,248
                                                                        106,130
                                                                        105,037
*Note  -  For 2021 EPA shows $1,600 ton with and without LNB upgrade; given it is  not requiring budgets reflecting LNB controls until 2022.

Table C-2. 2022 Emissions for States at Different Uniform Control Scenarios (Reflected by dollar per ton)
 
                                 OS NOx (tons)
 
2022 Baseline
 $500/ton
0.08 SCR Optimization + LNB ($1,600/ton)
0.08 SCR Optimization + LNB + SNCR Optimization ($1,800/ton)
Alabama
                                                                          7,786
                                                                          7,785
                                                                          7,693
                                                                          7,693
Arizona
                                                                          5,389
                                                                          5,100
                                                                          4,616
                                                                          4,616
Arkansas
                                                                          8,731
                                                                          8,655
                                                                          8,708
                                                                          8,708
California
                                                                          1,104
                                                                          1,103
                                                                          1,055
                                                                          1,053
Colorado
                                                                          7,484
                                                                          7,487
                                                                          7,471
                                                                          7,449
Connecticut
                                                                            341
                                                                            313
                                                                            304
                                                                            304
Delaware
                                                                            220
                                                                            220
                                                                            203
                                                                            202
Florida
                                                                         14,976
                                                                         14,966
                                                                         13,641
                                                                         13,560
Fort Mojave
                                                                             53
                                                                             53
                                                                             53
                                                                             53
Georgia
                                                                          7,833
                                                                          7,833
                                                                          7,808
                                                                          7,808
Idaho
                                                                            204
                                                                            204
                                                                            204
                                                                            204
Illinois
                                                                          9,368
                                                                          9,348
                                                                          9,198
                                                                          9,102
Indiana
                                                                         15,383
                                                                         15,206
                                                                         12,615
                                                                         12,582
Iowa
                                                                          8,567
                                                                          8,447
                                                                          7,659
                                                                          7,659
Kansas
                                                                          6,057
                                                                          6,053
                                                                          5,384
                                                                          5,338
Kentucky
                                                                         15,588
                                                                         15,606
                                                                         14,057
                                                                         14,051
Louisiana
                                                                         15,476
                                                                         15,430
                                                                         15,389
                                                                         14,818
Maine
                                                                             67
                                                                             67
                                                                             67
                                                                             67
Maryland
                                                                          1,267
                                                                          1,267
                                                                          1,266
                                                                          1,266
Massachusetts
                                                                            336
                                                                            333
                                                                            333
                                                                            331
Michigan
                                                                         13,459
                                                                         12,688
                                                                         12,295
                                                                         12,290
Minnesota
                                                                          5,888
                                                                          5,761
                                                                          5,369
                                                                          5,369
Mississippi
                                                                          8,070
                                                                          8,067
                                                                          7,739
                                                                          7,739
Missouri
                                                                         12,439
                                                                         12,379
                                                                         11,352
                                                                         11,276
Montana
                                                                          3,249
                                                                          3,249
                                                                          3,249
                                                                          3,249
Navajo
                                                                          1,319
                                                                          1,319
                                                                          1,319
                                                                          1,319
Nebraska
                                                                          8,078
                                                                          8,013
                                                                          7,530
                                                                          7,530
Nevada
                                                                          1,500
                                                                            931
                                                                            575
                                                                            575
New Hampshire
                                                                            386
                                                                            386
                                                                            299
                                                                            299
New Jersey
                                                                          1,346
                                                                          1,346
                                                                          1,253
                                                                          1,253
New Mexico
                                                                          4,656
                                                                          4,624
                                                                          4,502
                                                                          4,488
New York
                                                                          3,469
                                                                          3,463
                                                                          3,416
                                                                          3,416
North Carolina
                                                                         15,326
                                                                         15,231
                                                                         10,658
                                                                         10,514
North Dakota
                                                                         11,885
                                                                         11,829
                                                                         11,774
                                                                         11,135
Ohio
                                                                         15,927
                                                                         15,569
                                                                          9,773
                                                                          9,773
Oklahoma
                                                                          8,964
                                                                          8,878
                                                                          8,717
                                                                          8,717
Oregon
                                                                            350
                                                                            350
                                                                            350
                                                                            350
Pennsylvania
                                                                         11,896
                                                                         11,806
                                                                          8,373
                                                                          8,373
Rhode Island
                                                                            233
                                                                            233
                                                                            233
                                                                            233
South Carolina
                                                                          4,979
                                                                          4,979
                                                                          3,839
                                                                          3,839
South Dakota
                                                                            591
                                                                            583
                                                                            581
                                                                            581
Tennessee
                                                                          4,547
                                                                          4,549
                                                                          4,367
                                                                          4,367
Texas
                                                                         44,773
                                                                         43,835
                                                                         42,326
                                                                         42,285
Utah
                                                                          6,729
                                                                          4,862
                                                                          4,837
                                                                          4,837
Ute
                                                                          2,144
                                                                          2,144
                                                                          2,144
                                                                          2,144
Vermont
                                                                             51
                                                                             51
                                                                             51
                                                                             51
Virginia
                                                                          4,274
                                                                          4,270
                                                                          3,957
                                                                          3,897
Washington
                                                                          1,609
                                                                          1,609
                                                                          1,609
                                                                          1,603
West Virginia
                                                                         15,165
                                                                         15,017
                                                                         13,205
                                                                         12,884
Wisconsin
                                                                          4,992
                                                                          4,864
                                                                          4,700
                                                                          4,693
Wyoming
                                                                         10,918
                                                                         10,918
                                                                         10,061
                                                                         10,061
12 Linked States Total
                                                                        122,619
                                                                        121,016
                                                                        104,797
                                                                        103,705
                                       
Table C-3. 2023 Emissions for States at Different Uniform Control Scenarios (Reflected by dollar  per ton).
 
                                 OS NOx (tons)
 
2023 Baseline
 $500/ton
0.08 SCR Optimization + LNB ($1,600/ton)
0.08 SCR Optimization + LNB + SNCR Optimization ($1,800/ton)
Alabama
                                                                          7,786
                                                                          7,785
                                                                          7,693
                                                                          7,693
Arizona
                                                                          5,389
                                                                          5,100
                                                                          4,616
                                                                          4,616
Arkansas
                                                                          8,731
                                                                          8,655
                                                                          8,708
                                                                          8,708
California
                                                                          1,104
                                                                          1,103
                                                                          1,055
                                                                          1,053
Colorado
                                                                          6,663
                                                                          6,666
                                                                          6,650
                                                                          6,629
Connecticut
                                                                            341
                                                                            313
                                                                            304
                                                                            304
Delaware
                                                                            220
                                                                            220
                                                                            203
                                                                            202
Florida
                                                                         14,496
                                                                         14,486
                                                                         13,162
                                                                         13,080
Fort Mojave
                                                                             53
                                                                             53
                                                                             53
                                                                             53
Georgia
                                                                          7,154
                                                                          7,154
                                                                          7,129
                                                                          7,129
Idaho
                                                                            204
                                                                            204
                                                                            204
                                                                            204
Illinois
                                                                          8,413
                                                                          8,393
                                                                          8,275
                                                                          8,179
Indiana
                                                                         15,357
                                                                         15,179
                                                                         12,587
                                                                         12,553
Iowa
                                                                          7,647
                                                                          7,531
                                                                          6,753
                                                                          6,753
Kansas
                                                                          6,057
                                                                          6,053
                                                                          5,384
                                                                          5,338
Kentucky
                                                                         15,588
                                                                         15,606
                                                                         14,057
                                                                         14,051
Louisiana
                                                                         15,476
                                                                         15,430
                                                                         15,389
                                                                         14,818
Maine
                                                                             67
                                                                             67
                                                                             67
                                                                             67
Maryland
                                                                          1,267
                                                                          1,267
                                                                          1,266
                                                                          1,266
Massachusetts
                                                                            320
                                                                            317
                                                                            317
                                                                            315
Michigan
                                                                         11,182
                                                                         10,386
                                                                          9,980
                                                                          9,975
Minnesota
                                                                          4,655
                                                                          4,545
                                                                          4,198
                                                                          4,198
Mississippi
                                                                          8,070
                                                                          8,067
                                                                          7,739
                                                                          7,739
Missouri
                                                                         12,160
                                                                         12,101
                                                                         11,074
                                                                         10,997
Montana
                                                                          3,249
                                                                          3,249
                                                                          3,249
                                                                          3,249
Navajo
                                                                          1,319
                                                                          1,319
                                                                          1,319
                                                                          1,319
Nebraska
                                                                          8,078
                                                                          8,013
                                                                          7,530
                                                                          7,530
Nevada
                                                                          1,386
                                                                            828
                                                                            479
                                                                            479
New Hampshire
                                                                            386
                                                                            386
                                                                            299
                                                                            299
New Jersey
                                                                          1,346
                                                                          1,346
                                                                          1,253
                                                                          1,253
New Mexico
                                                                          1,693
                                                                          1,673
                                                                          1,594
                                                                          1,594
New York
                                                                          3,474
                                                                          3,468
                                                                          3,421
                                                                          3,421
North Carolina
                                                                         15,326
                                                                         15,231
                                                                         10,658
                                                                         10,514
North Dakota
                                                                          9,166
                                                                          9,128
                                                                          9,091
                                                                          8,452
Ohio
                                                                         15,927
                                                                         15,569
                                                                          9,773
                                                                          9,773
Oklahoma
                                                                          8,964
                                                                          8,878
                                                                          8,717
                                                                          8,717
Oregon
                                                                            350
                                                                            350
                                                                            350
                                                                            350
Pennsylvania
                                                                         11,896
                                                                         11,806
                                                                          8,373
                                                                          8,373
Rhode Island
                                                                            233
                                                                            233
                                                                            233
                                                                            233
South Carolina
                                                                          4,979
                                                                          4,979
                                                                          3,839
                                                                          3,839
South Dakota
                                                                            591
                                                                            583
                                                                            581
                                                                            581
Tennessee
                                                                          4,547
                                                                          4,549
                                                                          4,367
                                                                          4,367
Texas
                                                                         44,582
                                                                         43,646
                                                                         42,138
                                                                         42,097
Utah
                                                                          6,729
                                                                          4,862
                                                                          4,837
                                                                          4,837
Ute
                                                                          2,144
                                                                          2,144
                                                                          2,144
                                                                          2,144
Vermont
                                                                             51
                                                                             51
                                                                             51
                                                                             51
Virginia
                                                                          4,361
                                                                          4,357
                                                                          4,041
                                                                          3,980
Washington
                                                                          1,609
                                                                          1,609
                                                                          1,609
                                                                          1,603
West Virginia
                                                                         15,165
                                                                         15,017
                                                                         13,205
                                                                         12,884
Wisconsin
                                                                          4,857
                                                                          4,734
                                                                          4,576
                                                                          4,569
Wyoming
                                                                         10,337
                                                                         10,337
                                                                          9,480
                                                                          9,480
12 Linked States Total
                                                                        119,453
                                                                        117,824
                                                                        101,620
                                                                        100,526
                                       
Table C-4. 2024 Emissions for States at Different Uniform Control Scenarios (Reflected by dollar  per ton).
 
                                 OS NOx (tons)
 
2024 Baseline
 $500/ton
0.08 SCR Optimization + LNB ($1,600/ton)
0.08 SCR Optimization + LNB + SNCR Optimization ($1,800/ton)
0.08 SCR Optimization + LNB + SNCR Optimization + SNCR Retrofit ($5,800/ton)
0.08 SCR Optimization + LNB + SNCR Optimization + SCR Retrofit ($9,600/ton)
Alabama
                                                                          7,786
                                                                          7,785
                                                                          7,693
                                                                          7,693
                                                                          7,694
                                                                          7,515
Arizona
                                                                          5,389
                                                                          5,100
                                                                          4,616
                                                                          4,616
                                                                          4,816
                                                                          3,916
Arkansas
                                                                          8,731
                                                                          8,655
                                                                          8,708
                                                                          8,708
                                                                          6,642
                                                                          4,661
California
                                                                          1,104
                                                                          1,103
                                                                          1,055
                                                                          1,053
                                                                          1,053
                                                                          1,053
Colorado
                                                                          5,950
                                                                          5,953
                                                                          5,938
                                                                          5,916
                                                                          5,085
                                                                          3,826
Connecticut
                                                                            341
                                                                            313
                                                                            304
                                                                            304
                                                                            302
                                                                            302
Delaware
                                                                            220
                                                                            220
                                                                            203
                                                                            202
                                                                            194
                                                                            194
Florida
                                                                         14,505
                                                                         14,495
                                                                         13,170
                                                                         13,089
                                                                         12,446
                                                                         11,752
Fort Mojave
                                                                             53
                                                                             53
                                                                             53
                                                                             53
                                                                             53
                                                                             53
Georgia
                                                                          7,154
                                                                          7,154
                                                                          7,129
                                                                          7,129
                                                                          7,097
                                                                          7,097
Idaho
                                                                            204
                                                                            204
                                                                            204
                                                                            204
                                                                            204
                                                                            204
Illinois
                                                                          8,292
                                                                          8,272
                                                                          8,154
                                                                          8,059
                                                                          7,239
                                                                          6,891
Indiana
                                                                         12,232
                                                                         12,083
                                                                          9,585
                                                                          9,564
                                                                          8,923
                                                                          8,430
Iowa
                                                                          7,647
                                                                          7,531
                                                                          6,753
                                                                          6,753
                                                                          5,201
                                                                          2,817
Kansas
                                                                          6,057
                                                                          6,053
                                                                          5,384
                                                                          5,338
                                                                          4,815
                                                                          3,658
Kentucky
                                                                         15,588
                                                                         15,606
                                                                         14,057
                                                                         14,051
                                                                         12,322
                                                                          9,775
Louisiana
                                                                         15,476
                                                                         15,430
                                                                         15,389
                                                                         14,818
                                                                         14,378
                                                                         12,622
Maine
                                                                             67
                                                                             67
                                                                             67
                                                                             67
                                                                             67
                                                                             67
Maryland
                                                                          1,350
                                                                          1,350
                                                                          1,348
                                                                          1,348
                                                                          1,168
                                                                          1,168
Massachusetts
                                                                            320
                                                                            317
                                                                            317
                                                                            315
                                                                            307
                                                                            307
Michigan
                                                                         10,968
                                                                         10,188
                                                                          9,791
                                                                          9,786
                                                                          8,670
                                                                          7,344
Minnesota
                                                                          4,655
                                                                          4,545
                                                                          4,198
                                                                          4,198
                                                                          3,034
                                                                          2,581
Mississippi
                                                                          8,070
                                                                          8,067
                                                                          7,739
                                                                          7,739
                                                                          7,081
                                                                          6,436
Missouri
                                                                         12,160
                                                                         12,101
                                                                         11,074
                                                                         10,997
                                                                         10,744
                                                                          9,301
Montana
                                                                          3,249
                                                                          3,249
                                                                          3,249
                                                                          3,249
                                                                          2,445
                                                                          1,544
Navajo
                                                                          1,319
                                                                          1,319
                                                                          1,319
                                                                          1,319
                                                                          1,319
                                                                          1,319
Nebraska
                                                                          7,347
                                                                          7,283
                                                                          7,299
                                                                          7,299
                                                                          5,966
                                                                          4,246
Nevada
                                                                          1,386
                                                                            828
                                                                            479
                                                                            479
                                                                            332
                                                                            100
New Hampshire
                                                                            386
                                                                            386
                                                                            299
                                                                            299
                                                                            299
                                                                            299
New Jersey
                                                                          1,346
                                                                          1,346
                                                                          1,253
                                                                          1,253
                                                                          1,257
                                                                          1,257
New Mexico
                                                                          1,693
                                                                          1,673
                                                                          1,594
                                                                          1,594
                                                                          1,187
                                                                          1,187
New York
                                                                          3,456
                                                                          3,450
                                                                          3,403
                                                                          3,403
                                                                          3,297
                                                                          3,297
North Carolina
                                                                         15,326
                                                                         15,231
                                                                         10,658
                                                                         10,514
                                                                          7,981
                                                                          4,691
North Dakota
                                                                          9,166
                                                                          9,128
                                                                          9,091
                                                                          8,452
                                                                          7,237
                                                                          2,250
Ohio
                                                                         15,927
                                                                         15,569
                                                                          9,773
                                                                          9,773
                                                                          9,644
                                                                          9,222
Oklahoma
                                                                          8,964
                                                                          8,878
                                                                          8,717
                                                                          8,717
                                                                          7,820
                                                                          7,251
Oregon
                                                                            350
                                                                            350
                                                                            350
                                                                            350
                                                                            350
                                                                            350
Pennsylvania
                                                                         11,896
                                                                         11,806
                                                                          8,373
                                                                          8,373
                                                                          7,921
                                                                          7,851
Rhode Island
                                                                            233
                                                                            233
                                                                            233
                                                                            233
                                                                            233
                                                                            233
South Carolina
                                                                          4,903
                                                                          4,903
                                                                          3,769
                                                                          3,769
                                                                          3,762
                                                                          3,762
South Dakota
                                                                            591
                                                                            583
                                                                            581
                                                                            581
                                                                            583
                                                                            583
Tennessee
                                                                          4,547
                                                                          4,549
                                                                          4,367
                                                                          4,367
                                                                          4,280
                                                                          4,280
Texas
                                                                         43,265
                                                                         42,338
                                                                         40,845
                                                                         40,804
                                                                         35,342
                                                                         29,460
Utah
                                                                          6,729
                                                                          4,862
                                                                          4,837
                                                                          4,837
                                                                          5,094
                                                                          3,174
Ute
                                                                          2,144
                                                                          2,144
                                                                          2,144
                                                                          2,144
                                                                          1,608
                                                                            573
Vermont
                                                                             51
                                                                             51
                                                                             51
                                                                             51
                                                                             51
                                                                             51
Virginia
                                                                          4,025
                                                                          4,021
                                                                          3,707
                                                                          3,663
                                                                          3,618
                                                                          3,184
Washington
                                                                          1,609
                                                                          1,609
                                                                          1,609
                                                                          1,603
                                                                          1,603
                                                                            761
West Virginia
                                                                         15,165
                                                                         15,017
                                                                         13,205
                                                                         12,884
                                                                         12,837
                                                                         10,568
Wisconsin
                                                                          4,161
                                                                          4,043
                                                                          3,893
                                                                          3,886
                                                                          3,862
                                                                          3,862
Wyoming
                                                                         10,337
                                                                         10,337
                                                                          9,480
                                                                          9,480
                                                                          6,997
                                                                          3,972
12 Linked States Total
                                                                        115,722
                                                                        114,138
                                                                         98,038
                                                                         96,975
                                                                         91,274
                                                                         81,609
                                       
Table C-5. 2025 Emissions for States at Different Uniform Control Scenarios (Reflected by dollar  per ton).
 
                                 OS NOx (tons)
 
2025 Baseline
 $500/ton
0.08 SCR Optimization + LNB ($1,600/ton)
0.08 SCR Optimization + LNB + SNCR Optimization ($1,800/ton)
0.08 SCR Optimization + LNB + SNCR Optimization + SNCR Retrofit ($5,800/ton)
0.08 SCR Optimization + LNB + SNCR Optimization + SCR Retrofit ($9,600/ton)
Alabama
                                                                          7,786
                                                                          7,785
                                                                          7,693
                                                                          7,693
                                                                          7,694
                                                                          7,515
Arizona
                                                                          5,389
                                                                          5,100
                                                                          4,616
                                                                          4,616
                                                                          4,816
                                                                          3,916
Arkansas
                                                                          8,731
                                                                          8,655
                                                                          8,708
                                                                          8,708
                                                                          6,642
                                                                          4,661
California
                                                                          1,104
                                                                          1,103
                                                                          1,055
                                                                          1,053
                                                                          1,053
                                                                          1,053
Colorado
                                                                          5,950
                                                                          5,953
                                                                          5,938
                                                                          5,916
                                                                          5,085
                                                                          3,826
Connecticut
                                                                            341
                                                                            313
                                                                            304
                                                                            304
                                                                            302
                                                                            302
Delaware
                                                                            220
                                                                            220
                                                                            203
                                                                            202
                                                                            194
                                                                            194
Florida
                                                                         13,938
                                                                         13,929
                                                                         12,604
                                                                         12,523
                                                                         11,882
                                                                         11,188
Fort Mojave
                                                                             53
                                                                             53
                                                                             53
                                                                             53
                                                                             53
                                                                             53
Georgia
                                                                          7,154
                                                                          7,154
                                                                          7,129
                                                                          7,129
                                                                          7,097
                                                                          7,097
Idaho
                                                                            204
                                                                            204
                                                                            204
                                                                            204
                                                                            204
                                                                            204
Illinois
                                                                          8,281
                                                                          8,261
                                                                          8,143
                                                                          8,047
                                                                          7,228
                                                                          6,880
Indiana
                                                                         12,232
                                                                         12,083
                                                                          9,585
                                                                          9,564
                                                                          8,923
                                                                          8,430
Iowa
                                                                          7,647
                                                                          7,531
                                                                          6,753
                                                                          6,753
                                                                          5,201
                                                                          2,817
Kansas
                                                                          6,057
                                                                          6,053
                                                                          5,384
                                                                          5,338
                                                                          4,815
                                                                          3,658
Kentucky
                                                                         14,551
                                                                         14,567
                                                                         13,352
                                                                         13,345
                                                                         11,796
                                                                          9,529
Louisiana
                                                                         15,476
                                                                         15,430
                                                                         15,389
                                                                         14,818
                                                                         14,378
                                                                         12,622
Maine
                                                                             67
                                                                             67
                                                                             67
                                                                             67
                                                                             67
                                                                             67
Maryland
                                                                          1,350
                                                                          1,350
                                                                          1,348
                                                                          1,348
                                                                          1,168
                                                                          1,168
Massachusetts
                                                                            320
                                                                            317
                                                                            317
                                                                            315
                                                                            307
                                                                            307
Michigan
                                                                         11,009
                                                                         10,211
                                                                          9,804
                                                                          9,800
                                                                          8,678
                                                                          7,352
Minnesota
                                                                          4,655
                                                                          4,545
                                                                          4,198
                                                                          4,198
                                                                          3,034
                                                                          2,581
Mississippi
                                                                          8,070
                                                                          8,067
                                                                          7,739
                                                                          7,739
                                                                          7,081
                                                                          6,436
Missouri
                                                                         12,147
                                                                         12,088
                                                                         11,061
                                                                         10,985
                                                                         10,732
                                                                          9,288
Montana
                                                                          3,249
                                                                          3,249
                                                                          3,249
                                                                          3,249
                                                                          2,445
                                                                          1,544
Navajo
                                                                          1,319
                                                                          1,319
                                                                          1,319
                                                                          1,319
                                                                          1,319
                                                                          1,319
Nebraska
                                                                          7,347
                                                                          7,283
                                                                          7,299
                                                                          7,299
                                                                          5,966
                                                                          4,246
Nevada
                                                                          1,386
                                                                            828
                                                                            479
                                                                            479
                                                                            332
                                                                            100
New Hampshire
                                                                            386
                                                                            386
                                                                            299
                                                                            299
                                                                            299
                                                                            299
New Jersey
                                                                          1,346
                                                                          1,346
                                                                          1,253
                                                                          1,253
                                                                          1,257
                                                                          1,257
New Mexico
                                                                          1,693
                                                                          1,673
                                                                          1,594
                                                                          1,594
                                                                          1,187
                                                                          1,187
New York
                                                                          3,456
                                                                          3,450
                                                                          3,403
                                                                          3,403
                                                                          3,297
                                                                          3,297
North Carolina
                                                                         14,281
                                                                         14,188
                                                                          9,632
                                                                          9,538
                                                                          7,055
                                                                          4,483
North Dakota
                                                                          9,166
                                                                          9,128
                                                                          9,091
                                                                          8,452
                                                                          7,237
                                                                          2,250
Ohio
                                                                         15,927
                                                                         15,569
                                                                          9,773
                                                                          9,773
                                                                          9,644
                                                                          9,222
Oklahoma
                                                                          8,964
                                                                          8,878
                                                                          8,717
                                                                          8,717
                                                                          7,820
                                                                          7,251
Oregon
                                                                            350
                                                                            350
                                                                            350
                                                                            350
                                                                            350
                                                                            350
Pennsylvania
                                                                         11,896
                                                                         11,806
                                                                          8,373
                                                                          8,373
                                                                          7,921
                                                                          7,851
Rhode Island
                                                                            233
                                                                            233
                                                                            233
                                                                            233
                                                                            233
                                                                            233
South Carolina
                                                                          4,903
                                                                          4,903
                                                                          3,769
                                                                          3,769
                                                                          3,762
                                                                          3,762
South Dakota
                                                                            591
                                                                            583
                                                                            581
                                                                            581
                                                                            583
                                                                            583
Tennessee
                                                                          3,953
                                                                          3,954
                                                                          3,907
                                                                          3,907
                                                                          3,826
                                                                          3,826
Texas
                                                                         43,125
                                                                         42,199
                                                                         40,708
                                                                         40,667
                                                                         35,207
                                                                         29,325
Utah
                                                                          6,729
                                                                          4,862
                                                                          4,837
                                                                          4,837
                                                                          5,094
                                                                          3,174
Ute
                                                                          2,144
                                                                          2,144
                                                                          2,144
                                                                          2,144
                                                                          1,608
                                                                            573
Vermont
                                                                             51
                                                                             51
                                                                             51
                                                                             51
                                                                             51
                                                                             51
Virginia
                                                                          4,162
                                                                          4,158
                                                                          3,839
                                                                          3,795
                                                                          3,745
                                                                          3,312
Washington
                                                                          1,609
                                                                          1,609
                                                                          1,609
                                                                          1,603
                                                                          1,603
                                                                            761
West Virginia
                                                                         15,165
                                                                         15,017
                                                                         13,205
                                                                         12,884
                                                                         12,837
                                                                         10,568
Wisconsin
                                                                          3,769
                                                                          3,660
                                                                          3,519
                                                                          3,512
                                                                          3,490
                                                                          3,490
Wyoming
                                                                         10,337
                                                                         10,337
                                                                          9,480
                                                                          9,480
                                                                          6,997
                                                                          3,972
12 Linked States Total
                                                                        114,850
                                                                        113,248
                                                                         97,467
                                                                         96,403
                                                                         90,872
                                                                         81,488

As noted in Section VI of the Preamble, EPA identified $1,800 per ton as the point for determining significant contribution from EGUs under the Step 3 multifactor test.  Section VII explains that EPA applied this cost threshold to each year through 2024 to arrive at a budget estimate for that year.  Those state-level emissions budgets for the 12 states along with the corresponding percent reduction relative to 2019 and the state's baseline emissions for that year are shown below in Tables C-6 through C-10.

Table C-6 - OS NOx, 2021 Emissions Budget, and % Reduction
 
2016 OS NOx
2019 OS NOx
Baseline 2021 OS NOx
2021 Budget 
% Reduction from 2019
% Reduction from 2021 Baseline
Illinois
                                    14,553
                                    11,877
                                     9,368
                                     9,102
                                      23%
                                      3%
Indiana
                                    34,636
                                    16,594
                                    15,856
                                    13,051
                                      21%
                                      18%
Kentucky
                                    25,403
                                    19,117
                                    15,588
                                    15,300
                                      20%
                                      2%
Louisiana
                                    19,615
                                    15,365
                                    15,476
                                    14,818
                                      4%
                                      4%
Maryland
                                     4,471
                                     1,662
                                     1,501
                                     1,499
                                      10%
                                      0%
Michigan
                                    17,632
                                    14,055
                                    13,898
                                    12,727
                                      9%
                                      8%
New Jersey
                                     2,463
                                     1,346
                                     1,346
                                     1,253
                                      7%
                                      7%
New York
                                     6,534
                                     3,225
                                     3,469
                                     3,416
                                      -6%
                                      2%
Ohio
                                    24,205
                                    16,390
                                    15,829
                                     9,690
                                      41%
                                      39%
Pennsylvania
                                    31,896
                                    12,093
                                    11,896
                                     8,379
                                      31%
                                      30%
Virginia
                                     9,833
                                     4,668
                                     4,664
                                     4,516
                                      3%
                                      3%
West Virginia
                                    21,178
                                    15,615
                                    15,165
                                    13,334
                                      15%
                                      12%
Total
                                    212,418
                                    132,006
                                    124,057
                                    107,085
                                      19%
                                     13.7%
 

Table C-7. OS NOx, 2022 Emissions Budget, and % Reduction
 
2016 OS NOx
2019 OS NOx
Baseline 2022 OS NOx
2022 Budget
% Reduction from 2019
% Reduction from 2022 Baseline
Illinois
                                    14,553
                                    11,877
                                     9,368
                                     9,102
                                      23%
                                      3%
Indiana
                                    34,636
                                    16,594
                                    15,383
                                    12,582
                                      24%
                                      18%
Kentucky
                                    25,403
                                    19,117
                                    15,588
                                    14,051
                                      27%
                                      10%
Louisiana
                                    19,615
                                    15,365
                                    15,476
                                    14,818
                                      4%
                                      4%
Maryland
                                     4,471
                                     1,662
                                     1,267
                                     1,266
                                      24%
                                      0%
Michigan
                                    17,632
                                    14,055
                                    13,459
                                    12,290
                                      13%
                                      9%
New Jersey
                                     2,463
                                     1,346
                                     1,346
                                     1,253
                                      7%
                                      7%
New York
                                     6,534
                                     3,225
                                     3,469
                                     3,416
                                      -6%
                                      2%
Ohio
                                    24,205
                                    16,390
                                    15,927
                                     9,773
                                      40%
                                      39%
Pennsylvania
                                    31,896
                                    12,093
                                    11,896
                                     8,373
                                      31%
                                      30%
Virginia
                                     9,833
                                     4,668
                                     4,274
                                     3,897
                                      17%
                                      9%
West Virginia
                                    21,178
                                    15,615
                                    15,165
                                    12,884
                                      17%
                                      15%
Total
                                    212,418
                                    132,006
                                    122,619
                                    103,705
                                      21%
                                     15.4%


Table C-8. OS NOx, 2023 Emissions Budget, and % Reduction
 
2016 OS NOx
2019 OS NOx
Baseline 2023 OS NOx
2023 Budget
% Reduction from 2019
% Reduction from 2023 Baseline
Illinois
                                    14,553
                                    11,877
                                     8,413
                                     8,179
                                      31%
                                      3%
Indiana
                                    34,636
                                    16,594
                                    15,357
                                    12,553
                                      24%
                                      18%
Kentucky
                                    25,403
                                    19,117
                                    15,588
                                    14,051
                                      27%
                                      10%
Louisiana
                                    19,615
                                    15,365
                                    15,476
                                    14,818
                                      4%
                                      4%
Maryland
                                     4,471
                                     1,662
                                     1,267
                                     1,266
                                      24%
                                      0%
Michigan
                                    17,632
                                    14,055
                                    11,182
                                     9,975
                                      29%
                                      11%
New Jersey
                                     2,463
                                     1,346
                                     1,346
                                     1,253
                                      7%
                                      7%
New York
                                     6,534
                                     3,225
                                     3,474
                                     3,421
                                      -6%
                                      2%
Ohio
                                    24,205
                                    16,390
                                    15,927
                                     9,773
                                      40%
                                      39%
Pennsylvania
                                    31,896
                                    12,093
                                    11,896
                                     8,373
                                      31%
                                      30%
Virginia
                                     9,833
                                     4,668
                                     4,361
                                     3,980
                                      15%
                                      9%
West Virginia
                                    21,178
                                    15,615
                                    15,165
                                    12,884
                                      17%
                                      15%
Total
                                    212,418
                                    132,006
                                    119,453
                                    100,526
                                      24%
                                     15.8%

Table C-9. OS NOx, 2024 Onward: Emissions Budget, and % Reduction
 
2016 OS NOx
2019 OS NOx
Baseline 2024 OS NOx
2024 Budget
% Reduction from 2019
% Reduction from 2024 Baseline
Illinois
                                    14,553
                                    11,877
                                     8,292
                                     8,059
                                      32%
                                      3%
Indiana
                                    34,636
                                    16,594
                                    12,232
                                     9,564
                                      42%
                                      22%
Kentucky
                                    25,403
                                    19,117
                                    15,588
                                    14,051
                                      27%
                                      10%
Louisiana
                                    19,615
                                    15,365
                                    15,476
                                    14,818
                                      4%
                                      4%
Maryland
                                     4,471
                                     1,662
                                     1,350
                                     1,348
                                      19%
                                      0%
Michigan
                                    17,632
                                    14,055
                                    10,968
                                     9,786
                                      30%
                                      11%
New Jersey
                                     2,463
                                     1,346
                                     1,346
                                     1,253
                                      7%
                                      7%
New York
                                     6,534
                                     3,225
                                     3,456
                                     3,403
                                      -6%
                                      2%
Ohio
                                    24,205
                                    16,390
                                    15,927
                                     9,773
                                      40%
                                      39%
Pennsylvania
                                    31,896
                                    12,093
                                    11,896
                                     8,373
                                      31%
                                      30%
Virginia
                                     9,833
                                     4,668
                                     4,025
                                     3,663
                                      22%
                                      9%
West Virginia
                                    21,178
                                    15,615
                                    15,165
                                    12,884
                                      17%
                                      15%
Total
                                    212,418
                                    132,006
                                    115,722
                                    96,975
                                      27%
                                     16.2%


Table C-10. Emission Reduction Attributable to Generation Shifting (for 12 linked states).
 
Baseline OS NOx
Budget Without Gen Shifting
Budget With Gen. Shifting
% Reduction from Generation Shifting as a Percentage of Baseline
                                                                           2021
                                                                        124,057
                                                                        109,578
                                                                        107,085
                                                                             2%
                                                                           2022
                                                                        122,619
                                                                        106,211
                                                                        103,705
                                                                             2%
                                                                           2023
                                                                        119,453
                                                                        103,077
                                                                        100,526
                                                                             2%
                                                                           2024
                                                                        115,722
                                                                         99,446
                                                                         96,975
                                                                             2%

    Variability Limits and RIA Scenarios 
      Once EPA determined state-emission budgets, EPA calculated the variability limits and assurance levels for each state based on the calculated emission budgets. Each state's variability limit is 21% of its budget, and its assurance level is the sum of its budget and variability limit (or 121% of its budget). The variability limits and assurance levels are further described and shown in section VII of the preamble for the Revised CSAPR Update and shown in Table Appendix G-1.
      As explained in the preamble, the EPA is finalizing EGU NOX ozone season emission budgets reflecting the uniform cost threshold of $1,800 per ton to eliminate significant contribution to nonattainment and interference with maintenance. 
      For the RIA analysis, EPA used the budgets informed by the $1,800 per ton cost threshold scenario. Additionally, the RIA includes analysis of the less stringent policy option, using the budgets from a $500 per ton cost threshold case, and a more stringent policy alternative, using 2025 budgets from the $9,600 per ton cost threshold case reflecting SCR retrofits at coal units greater than 100 MW lacking such controls. 
      The IPM runs performed for this analysis are listed in Appendix C of this TSD.  Table Appendix C-1 lists the name of each IPM run next to a description of the run.  The output files of these model runs can be found in the rulemaking docket.  Detailed budget calculations for all cost per ton cases can be found in Appendix A  -  Final Rule State Emission Budget Calculations and Engineering Analytics. 
 






D. Analysis of Air Quality Responses to Emission Changes Using an Ozone Air Quality Assessment Tool (AQAT)

      EPA has defined each linked upwind state's significant contribution to nonattainment and interference with maintenance of downwind air quality using a multi-factor test (described in the preamble at section VI in step three of the 4-Step Good Neighbor Framework) which is based on cost, emissions, and air quality factors. A key quantitative input for determining the amount of each state's emission reduction obligation is the predicted downwind ambient air quality impacts of upwind EGU emission reductions under the budgets at various levels of NOX emission control and under a scenario of potential upwind non-EGU emissions reductions.  See section C of this TSD for information regarding EGUs and see preamble section VI for information about non-EGUs.  The emission reductions from the various cost thresholds can potentially result in air quality improvements such that individual receptors drop below the level of the NAAQS based on the cumulative air quality improvement from the upwind states, or potentially decrease each upwind state's contributions such that they possibly drop below the 1% linkage threshold (used in step two of the Good Neighbor Framework to identify the states for further analysis).  
      Air quality modeling would be the optimal way to examine these questions at each cost threshold level from EGUs and non-EGUs.  However, due to time and resource limitations EPA was unable to use photochemical air quality modeling for all but a few emissions scenarios.  Therefore, in order to estimate the air quality impacts for the various levels of emission reductions and to ensure that each step of its analysis is informed by the evolving emissions data, EPA used a simplified air quality assessment tool (AQAT).  The simplified tool allows the Agency to analyze many more NOX emission budget levels than would otherwise be possible. EPA recognizes that AQAT is not the equivalent of photochemical air quality modeling.  However, AQAT is directly informed by air quality modeling data.  Further, AQAT has evolved through iterative development under the original CSAPR and the CSAPR Update.  One such evolution is its calibration of the change in air quality based on air quality modeling of a particular emission reduction scenario.  As done at proposal, EPA examined various cost threshold scenarios for the year 2024 using two different calibration factors as a mechanism to estimate the range of results. 
       The inputs and outputs of the tool can be found in the "Ozone_AQAT_Final.xlsx" excel workbook.  
      
      The remainder of section D of this document will:
      
          Present an introduction and overview of the ozone AQAT;
          Describe the construction of the ozone AQAT; and
          Provide the results of the NOX emission cost threshold analyses.

1. Introduction: Development of the ozone AQAT
      
      The ozone AQAT was developed for use in the rule's step three air quality analysis as part of the multi-factor test.  Specifically, the AQAT was designed to evaluate air quality changes in response to emissions changes in order to quantify necessary emission reductions under the good neighbor provision and to evaluate potential budgets for over-control as to either the 1% threshold or the downwind receptor status. EPA described and used a similar tool in the original CSAPR to evaluate good neighbor obligations with respect to the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) NAAQS and in the CSAPR Update to evaluate good neighbor obligations with respect to ozone.  For the CSAPR Update, EPA refined both the construction and application of the assessment tool for use in estimating changes in ozone concentrations in response to changes in NOX emissions.  We followed the methodology developed in the CSAPR Update rulemaking where we calibrate the response of a pollutant using two CAMx simulations at different emission levels.[,]  The construction of the AQAT for the final rule is essentially the same as that for the proposed rule.
      A critical factor in the assessment tool is the establishment of a relationship between ozone season NOX emission reductions and reductions in ozone. Within AQAT, on a receptor-by-receptor basis, we assume that the reduction of a ton of emissions of NOX from the upwind state results in a particular level of improvement in air quality downwind.  For the purposes of developing and using an assessment tool to compare the air quality impacts of NOX emission reductions under various emission cost threshold emission levels, we determine the relationship between changes in emissions and changes in ozone contributions on a receptor-by-receptor basis.  Specifically, EPA assumed that, within the range of total NOX emissions being considered (as defined by the cost threshold emission levels or changes from year-to-year), a change in ozone season NOX emissions leads to a proportional change in downwind ozone contributions.  This proportional relationship was then modified using calibration factors created using the 2023 base case contribution air quality modeling and either the 2016 base case (for cases between 2016 and 2023) or the 2028 base case (for cases from 2023 to 2028) to account for the majority of the nonlinearity between emissions and ozone concentrations.  For example, for a particular receptor in 2022, we could assume that a 20% decrease in the upwind state's emissions leads to a 20% decrease in its downwind ozone contribution in the "uncalibrated" ozone AQAT, while following the application of the calibration factor (based on the change to 2016) it may only decrease by 10% in "calibrated" AQAT (where the calibration factor is 0.5).  Typically, the calibration factors were substantially less than one, often on the order of 0.3 (thus, a 10% decrease in emissions would result in a 3% decrease in ozone concentration).  The creation of the calibration factors is described in detail in section D.2.c (1) of this TSD.  
      In summary, because the tool is only being used over a range for which a calibration factor has been developed, and because other options such as using CAMx to model all scenarios is cost and time-prohibitive, EPA used ozone AQAT to estimate the downwind ozone reductions due to upwind NOX emission reductions for the air quality input to the multi-factor test for this rule.  Other options, such as directly scaling the results (i.e., an "uncalibrated ozone AQAT") will likely greatly overestimate the air quality impacts of emission reductions.  
      Section D.2, below, is a technical explanation of the construction of the ozone AQAT.  Readers who prefer to access the results of the analysis using the ozone AQAT are directed to section D.3.  

2.  Details on the construction of the ozone AQAT

 (a) Overview of the ozone AQAT
      
      This section describes the step-by-step development process for the ozone AQAT.  All the input and output data can be found in the Excel worksheets described in Appendix B.  In the ozone AQAT, EPA links state-by-state NOX emission reductions (derived from the photochemical model, the non-EGU assessment and/or the IPM EGU modeling combined with the EGU engineering assessment) with 2023 CAMx modeled ozone contributions in order to predict ozone concentrations at different levels of emission levels at monitoring sites.  The reduction in ozone contributions for each year at each cost threshold level and the resulting air quality improvement at monitoring sites with projected nonattainment and/or maintenance problems were then considered in a multi-factor test for identifying the level of emissions reductions that define significant contribution to nonattainment and interference with maintenance.  
      In applying AQAT to analyze air quality improvements at a given receptor for the cost threshold scenarios, emissions were reduced in only those upwind states that were "linked" to that receptor in step 2 of the Good Neighbor Framework (i.e., those states that contributed an air quality impact at or above 1 percent of the NAAQS).  Emissions were also reduced in the state that contained that receptor (regardless of the level of that state's contribution) at a level of control stringency consistent with the budget level applied in upwind states.  
      
      Specifically, the key estimates from the ozone AQAT for each receptor are:
      
          The ozone contribution as a function of emissions at each cost threshold level, for each upwind state that is contributing above the 1 percent air quality threshold and the state containing the receptor.
          The ozone contribution under base case NOX emissions in the various years, for each upwind state that is not above the 1 percent air quality threshold for that receptor.  
          The non-anthropogenic (i.e., background, boundary, biogenic, and wildfire) ozone concentrations.  These are assumed to be constant and equal to the contributions from the 2023 base case source apportionment modeling.
         
The results of the ozone AQAT analysis for each emission cost threshold level for EGUs and non-EGUs can be found in section D.3 of this document.

(b) Data used to construct the ozone AQAT for this rule

      Several air quality modeling and emissions inventory sources were used to construct the calibrated ozone AQAT for this rule.  Using the calibration factors, EPA modulated the 2023 CAMx ozone season contributions for each upwind state to each downwind receptor.  These modulations were enough to adjust the concentrations to represent a different year (e.g., 2021).  In all cases, the starting point was the 2023 base case CAMx run with contributions. For each scenario, EPA multiplied each state's percent change in emissions relative to the 2023 base case ozone season NOX emission inventories from all source sectors used in the source apportionment CAMx air quality modeling (this includes all anthropogenic sources and excludes biogenic sources and wildfires) by the receptor-specific calibration factor and the state's base case contribution.  Note that the 2023 scenario in CAMx used IPM emission estimates while the 2016 base case used EGU continuous emissions monitoring system (CEMS) data.  The base case emission inventories for the 2023 base case and the 2016 and 2028 base cases are discussed in the Air Quality Modeling TSD.  An additional emission inventory (i.e., for 2021) was also developed.  The EGU emissions for this inventory were replaced with emission estimates used throughout Step 3.  This emission inventory is described in the Emission Inventory TSD. The ozone season NOX EGU and non-EGU emissions for each emission scenario including the base case as modeled in AQAT are described in section C of this TSD. 
      As described in the Air Quality Modeling TSD, the air quality contributions and emissions were modeled for all states in the contiguous United States and the District of Columbia.  Thus, in the ozone AQAT, any emission differences between the 2023 air quality modeling base case and the scenario would result in changes in air quality contributions and ozone concentrations at the downwind monitors.  

(c) Detailed outline of the process for constructing and utilizing the ozone AQAT
      
      The ozone AQAT was created and used in a multi-step process.  First, a calibrated ozone AQAT was created using the contributions and emission inventory from the 2023 base case air quality modeling as well as the 2016 base case (for all scenarios with years greater than or equal to 2023, the calibrated AQAT used the design values and emission inventory from the 2028 base case).  The construction of this was identical to that from the proposal.  For each emissions cost threshold scenario evaluated, for each state, EPA identified the percent change in anthropogenic NOX emissions relative to the 2023 base case and multiplied this by the receptor-specific calibration factor as well as by the state- and receptor-specific contribution.  This resulted in a state- and receptor-specific "change in contribution" relative to the 2023 base case.  Each state's change in contribution value was then added to (or subtracted from) its 2023 base case contribution and the results summed for all states for each receptor.  To this total of each state's contribution to each receptor, the receptor-specific base case contributions from the other source-categories were added (modified if necessary in the same way if necessary to adjust to a different year), resulting in an estimated design value for each receptor. The calibrated ozone AQAT was used to project the ozone concentrations for each NOX emission budget level on a receptor-by-receptor basis for every monitor throughout the domain.  
      In order to facilitate understanding of the calibration process, EPA describes below a demonstrative example: monitor number 090019003 in Fairfield County, Connecticut, with a 2023 base case projected ozone average design value of 76.9 parts per billion (ppb) and maximum design value of 77.2 ppb. 

(1)  Create the calibration factors 

      The process for creating the calibration factors remains unchanged from the method used in the CSAPR Update.  This section repeats the process and data from the proposal.  To create the calibration factors, EPA used emissions, contributions, and design values from the 2023 CAMx run that used IPM for emissions, and the emissions and design values from either the 2016 or 2028 CAMx base cases. All changes in emissions and air quality are relative to the proposed 2023 CAMx base case.  
      First, EPA used ozone season state-level 2023 base case total NOX emissions from all source sectors.  This emissions data is divided into multiple source sectors for the purposes of air quality modeling: airports, beis, cmv_c1c2_12, cmv_c3_12, nonpt, nonroad, np_oilgas, onroad, pt_oilgas, ptagfire, ptegu, ptfire, ptnonipm, rail, rwc (see the Preparation of Emissions Inventories for 2016v1 North American Emissions Modeling Platform TSD for additional details on the emissions inventories used in the CAMx air quality modeling).  The anthropogenic state-level total NOX emissions used in the air quality contribution modeling are the sum of emissions from all these source sectors except (beis, ptagfire, and ptfire).  Next, EPA summed the ozone season total anthropogenic NOX emissions across all relevant source sectors for both the 2016 and 2028 base cases.  EPA calculated the ratio of the emissions for each of these two base cases to the total emissions for the 2023 base case for each state modeled in CAMx.  More information on the emissions inventories can be found in the preamble to the proposed rule. The total emissions data and resulting ratios can be found in Table D-1 and in the ozone AQAT worksheet "calib_emiss".
      For each monitor, the "uncalibrated" change in concentration was found by multiplying each state's 2023 base case ozone air quality contribution by the difference in the state's ratio of emissions.  The difference in the ratio of emissions was calculated as the difference in total ozone season anthropogenic NOX emissions between the either the 2016 base case (or the 2028 base case) and the 2023 base case scenario divided by the 2023 base case emission.  Thus, when the 2016 or 2028 base case had smaller emissions than the 2023 base case, the net result was a negative number.  Each state's fractional change in emissions was multiplied by its 2023 base case contribution to get a state- specific change in contribution (Table D-1).  For each monitor, the change in concentrations was summed across all states.  The result was the total "uncalibrated" change in concentration.  
 Table D-1. The 2023, 2016, and 2028 Base Cases Total Anthropogenic NOX Emissions with 2023 Ozone Contributions (ppb) and Uncalibrated Contributions for 2016 and 2023 for the Westport Monitor Number 090019003 in Fairfield County, Connecticut.
                                     State
                         2023 Base Case NOX Emissions
                         2016 Base Case NOX Emissions
                         2028 Base Case NOX Emissions
       Fraction of 2016 Base Case Emissions to 2023 Base Case Emissions
       Fraction of 2028 Base Case Emissions to 2023 Base Case Emissions
                      2023 Base Case Ozone Contributions
                Uncalibrated Change in AQ Contribution for 2016
                Uncalibrated Change in AQ Contribution for 2028
                        Uncalibrated Contribution 2016
                        Uncalibrated Contribution 2028
                                      AL
                                                                         67,839
                                                                        101,168
                                                                         60,574
                                                                          0.491
                                                                         -0.107
                                                                          0.113
                                                                          0.056
                                                                         -0.012
                                                                          0.169
                                                                          0.101
                                      AZ
                                                                         45,043
                                                                         70,225
                                                                         37,041
                                                                          0.559
                                                                         -0.178
                                                                          0.016
                                                                          0.009
                                                                         -0.003
                                                                          0.025
                                                                          0.013
                                      AR
                                                                         46,552
                                                                         68,756
                                                                         40,093
                                                                          0.477
                                                                         -0.139
                                                                          0.176
                                                                          0.084
                                                                         -0.024
                                                                          0.259
                                                                          0.151
                                      CA
                                                                        145,157
                                                                        212,134
                                                                        133,619
                                                                          0.461
                                                                         -0.079
                                                                          0.035
                                                                          0.016
                                                                         -0.003
                                                                          0.051
                                                                          0.032
                                      CO
                                                                         61,473
                                                                         86,684
                                                                         55,852
                                                                          0.410
                                                                         -0.091
                                                                          0.065
                                                                          0.027
                                                                         -0.006
                                                                          0.091
                                                                          0.059
                                      CT
                                                                         12,724
                                                                         18,874
                                                                         11,227
                                                                          0.483
                                                                         -0.118
                                                                          2.682
                                                                          1.296
                                                                         -0.316
                                                                          3.979
                                                                          2.367
                                      DE
                                                                          6,985
                                                                         10,193
                                                                          6,274
                                                                          0.459
                                                                         -0.102
                                                                          0.425
                                                                          0.195
                                                                         -0.043
                                                                          0.620
                                                                          0.382
                                      DC
                                                                          1,610
                                                                          2,338
                                                                          1,348
                                                                          0.453
                                                                         -0.163
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.019
                                                                         -0.007
                                                                          0.060
                                                                          0.035
                                      FL
                                                                        114,045
                                                                        186,866
                                                                         99,721
                                                                          0.639
                                                                         -0.126
                                                                          0.075
                                                                          0.048
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                          0.123
                                                                          0.065
                                      GA
                                                                         73,702
                                                                        115,451
                                                                         65,044
                                                                          0.566
                                                                         -0.117
                                                                          0.165
                                                                          0.093
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                          0.258
                                                                          0.146
                                      ID
                                                                         19,924
                                                                         29,416
                                                                         16,389
                                                                          0.476
                                                                         -0.177
                                                                          0.028
                                                                          0.013
                                                                         -0.005
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.023
                                      IL
                                                                        103,625
                                                                        143,831
                                                                         93,027
                                                                          0.388
                                                                         -0.102
                                                                          0.798
                                                                          0.310
                                                                         -0.082
                                                                          1.107
                                                                          0.716
                                      IN
                                                                         82,323
                                                                        129,702
                                                                         73,428
                                                                          0.576
                                                                         -0.108
                                                                          1.239
                                                                          0.713
                                                                         -0.134
                                                                          1.952
                                                                          1.105
                                      IA
                                                                         48,818
                                                                         67,053
                                                                         41,876
                                                                          0.374
                                                                         -0.142
                                                                          0.169
                                                                          0.063
                                                                         -0.024
                                                                          0.232
                                                                          0.145
                                      KS
                                                                         69,568
                                                                         91,022
                                                                         61,361
                                                                          0.308
                                                                         -0.118
                                                                          0.129
                                                                          0.040
                                                                         -0.015
                                                                          0.168
                                                                          0.114
                                      KY
                                                                         51,946
                                                                         88,409
                                                                         45,953
                                                                          0.702
                                                                         -0.115
                                                                          0.854
                                                                          0.599
                                                                         -0.098
                                                                          1.453
                                                                          0.755
                                      LA
                                                                        105,245
                                                                        138,804
                                                                         98,692
                                                                          0.319
                                                                         -0.062
                                                                          0.266
                                                                          0.085
                                                                         -0.017
                                                                          0.351
                                                                          0.250
                                      ME
                                                                         13,132
                                                                         19,133
                                                                         11,619
                                                                          0.457
                                                                         -0.115
                                                                          0.007
                                                                          0.003
                                                                         -0.001
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.006
                                      MD
                                                                         27,785
                                                                         43,974
                                                                         24,694
                                                                          0.583
                                                                         -0.111
                                                                          1.181
                                                                          0.688
                                                                         -0.131
                                                                          1.869
                                                                          1.050
                                      MA
                                                                         33,006
                                                                         45,621
                                                                         29,957
                                                                          0.382
                                                                         -0.092
                                                                          0.079
                                                                          0.030
                                                                         -0.007
                                                                          0.110
                                                                          0.072
                                      MI
                                                                         87,686
                                                                        118,418
                                                                         81,141
                                                                          0.350
                                                                         -0.075
                                                                          1.678
                                                                          0.588
                                                                         -0.125
                                                                          2.266
                                                                          1.553
                                      MN
                                                                         63,293
                                                                         89,970
                                                                         53,343
                                                                          0.421
                                                                         -0.157
                                                                          0.188
                                                                          0.079
                                                                         -0.030
                                                                          0.267
                                                                          0.159
                                      MS
                                                                         33,963
                                                                         56,364
                                                                         30,491
                                                                          0.660
                                                                         -0.102
                                                                          0.101
                                                                          0.067
                                                                         -0.010
                                                                          0.168
                                                                          0.091
                                      MO
                                                                         74,595
                                                                        116,616
                                                                         63,863
                                                                          0.563
                                                                         -0.144
                                                                          0.356
                                                                          0.200
                                                                         -0.051
                                                                          0.556
                                                                          0.305
                                      MT
                                                                         28,901
                                                                         40,605
                                                                         24,884
                                                                          0.405
                                                                         -0.139
                                                                          0.075
                                                                          0.030
                                                                         -0.010
                                                                          0.105
                                                                          0.064
                                      NE
                                                                         43,475
                                                                         59,121
                                                                         37,771
                                                                          0.360
                                                                         -0.131
                                                                          0.076
                                                                          0.028
                                                                         -0.010
                                                                          0.104
                                                                          0.066
                                      NV
                                                                         19,070
                                                                         30,601
                                                                         15,844
                                                                          0.605
                                                                         -0.169
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.007
                                                                         -0.002
                                                                          0.020
                                                                          0.010
                                      NH
                                                                          7,763
                                                                         11,753
                                                                          6,806
                                                                          0.514
                                                                         -0.123
                                                                          0.018
                                                                          0.009
                                                                         -0.002
                                                                          0.028
                                                                          0.016
                                      NJ
                                                                         37,738
                                                                         58,456
                                                                         33,624
                                                                          0.549
                                                                         -0.109
                                                                          8.446
                                                                          4.637
                                                                         -0.921
                                                                         13.083
                                                                          7.525
                                      NM
                                                                         53,165
                                                                         70,102
                                                                         47,356
                                                                          0.319
                                                                         -0.109
                                                                          0.038
                                                                          0.012
                                                                         -0.004
                                                                          0.051
                                                                          0.034
                                      NY
                                                                         77,766
                                                                        106,248
                                                                         69,004
                                                                          0.366
                                                                         -0.113
                                                                         14.141
                                                                          5.179
                                                                         -1.593
                                                                         19.320
                                                                         12.547
                                      NC
                                                                         76,448
                                                                        101,378
                                                                         64,646
                                                                          0.326
                                                                         -0.154
                                                                          0.548
                                                                          0.179
                                                                         -0.085
                                                                          0.727
                                                                          0.464
                                      ND
                                                                         46,471
                                                                         58,914
                                                                         41,774
                                                                          0.268
                                                                         -0.101
                                                                          0.080
                                                                          0.021
                                                                         -0.008
                                                                          0.101
                                                                          0.071
                                      OH
                                                                         98,579
                                                                        141,543
                                                                         87,637
                                                                          0.436
                                                                         -0.111
                                                                          2.506
                                                                          1.092
                                                                         -0.278
                                                                          3.598
                                                                          2.228
                                      OK
                                                                        101,105
                                                                        120,286
                                                                         92,941
                                                                          0.190
                                                                         -0.081
                                                                          0.195
                                                                          0.037
                                                                         -0.016
                                                                          0.233
                                                                          0.180
                                      OR
                                                                         31,443
                                                                         46,235
                                                                         26,228
                                                                          0.470
                                                                         -0.166
                                                                          0.028
                                                                          0.013
                                                                         -0.005
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.023
                                      PA
                                                                        112,449
                                                                        160,648
                                                                        100,275
                                                                          0.429
                                                                         -0.108
                                                                          6.723
                                                                          2.882
                                                                         -0.728
                                                                          9.604
                                                                          5.995
                                      RI
                                                                          4,742
                                                                          6,994
                                                                          4,106
                                                                          0.475
                                                                         -0.134
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.005
                                                                         -0.001
                                                                          0.015
                                                                          0.009
                                      SC
                                                                         46,385
                                                                         67,218
                                                                         40,781
                                                                          0.449
                                                                         -0.121
                                                                          0.177
                                                                          0.079
                                                                         -0.021
                                                                          0.256
                                                                          0.155
                                      SD
                                                                         13,753
                                                                         21,784
                                                                         10,688
                                                                          0.584
                                                                         -0.223
                                                                          0.047
                                                                          0.028
                                                                         -0.011
                                                                          0.075
                                                                          0.037
                                      TN
                                                                         57,191
                                                                         89,762
                                                                         50,022
                                                                          0.569
                                                                         -0.125
                                                                          0.318
                                                                          0.181
                                                                         -0.040
                                                                          0.499
                                                                          0.278
                                      TX
                                                                        314,342
                                                                        418,972
                                                                        288,147
                                                                          0.333
                                                                         -0.083
                                                                          0.582
                                                                          0.194
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                          0.776
                                                                          0.534
                                      UT
                                                                         35,868
                                                                         53,661
                                                                         31,932
                                                                          0.496
                                                                         -0.110
                                                                          0.033
                                                                          0.016
                                                                         -0.004
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.029
                                      VT
                                                                          4,047
                                                                          6,078
                                                                          3,340
                                                                          0.502
                                                                         -0.175
                                                                          0.014
                                                                          0.007
                                                                         -0.002
                                                                          0.021
                                                                          0.011
                                      VA
                                                                         57,856
                                                                         93,453
                                                                         51,398
                                                                          0.615
                                                                         -0.112
                                                                          1.273
                                                                          0.783
                                                                         -0.142
                                                                          2.057
                                                                          1.131
                                      WA
                                                                         58,962
                                                                         89,605
                                                                         49,093
                                                                          0.520
                                                                         -0.167
                                                                          0.055
                                                                          0.028
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                          0.083
                                                                          0.046
                                      WV
                                                                         53,854
                                                                         61,692
                                                                         52,047
                                                                          0.146
                                                                         -0.034
                                                                          1.459
                                                                          0.212
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                          1.671
                                                                          1.410
                                      WI
                                                                         48,283
                                                                         75,140
                                                                         41,731
                                                                          0.556
                                                                         -0.136
                                                                          0.229
                                                                          0.127
                                                                         -0.031
                                                                          0.357
                                                                          0.198
                                      WY
                                                                         41,098
                                                                         53,908
                                                                         36,966
                                                                          0.312
                                                                         -0.101
                                                                          0.078
                                                                          0.024
                                                                         -0.008
                                                                          0.103
                                                                          0.070
                                    TRIBAL
                                                                          5,858
                                                                         17,759
                                                                          5,875
                                                                          2.032
                                                                          0.003
                                                                          0.004
                                                                          0.009
                                                                          0.000
                                                                          0.013
                                                                          0.004
                                    CAN_MEX
                                                                               
                                                                               
                                                                               
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                        2.52895
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                        2.52895
                                                                        2.52895
                                   OFFSHORE
                                                                               
                                                                               
                                                                               
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                        0.67413
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                        0.67413
                                                                        0.67413
                                     FIRE
                                                                               
                                                                               
                                                                               
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                        0.34482
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                        0.34482
                                                                        0.34482
                                     ICBC
                                                                               
                                                                               
                                                                               
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                       20.63261
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                       20.63261
                                                                       20.63261
                                     BIOG
                                                                               
                                                                               
                                                                               
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                        4.68736
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                        4.68736
                                                                        4.68736
	Next, the estimate of the monitor specific ozone responses under the 2016 or 2028 base cases was used to calibrate the ozone AQAT to CAMx and to derive the calibration factors.  One factor was created using the 2016 base and is applied to all scenarios from 2016 through 2022, the other factor was created using the 2028 base and is applied to all scenarios from 2023 to 2028.  First, the changes in ozone predicted by the ozone AQAT and CAMx for the average design values were calculated for each monitor for the 2016 or 2028 base case relative to the 2023 base case concentrations.  The change in ozone predicted by CAMx was then divided by the change in ozone predicted by the uncalibrated AQAT, resulting in a monitor-specific calibration factor (see Table D-2 for an example calculation using the 2016 and 2028 base cases).  The calculation of these monitor-specific calibration factors provided EPA with the ability to align the ozone response predicted by the ozone AQAT to the ozone response predicted by CAMx.
      The ozone AQAT and CAMx concentration differences can be found in the "Ozone AQAT_Final.xlsx" excel workbook in columns BK and BL, respectively, on worksheets "calib_2016" and "calib_2028". The resulting calibration factors can be found in column BM of the aforementioned excel worksheets.  The calibration factor, multiplied by the fractional change in emissions (relative to the 2023) base and multiplied by the 2023 base air quality contribution, results in the fractional change in air quality contribution for any alternative scenario.

Table D-2. Design Values in the 2023 Base Case and the 2016 and 2028 Base Cases and Estimated Change in Design Value Relative to the 2023 Base Case from CAMx and Uncalibrated AQAT for the Westport Monitor Number 090019003 in Fairfield County, Connecticut.
                                        
                       2023 Base Case Concentration (ppb)
                       2016 Base Case Concentration (ppb)
                       2028 Base Case Concentration (ppb)
                   Change in Concentration from 2016 to 2023
                                     (ppb)
                   Change in Concentration from 2028 to 2023
                                     (ppb)
 CAMx
                                                                          76.90
                                                                          82.70
                                                                          74.30
                                                                           5.80
                                                                          -2.60
 Uncalibrated AQAT 
                                                                          76.90
                                                                          98.04
                                                                          71.70
                                                                          21.14
                                                                          -5.20
 Calibration Factor  -  Change in Concentration from CAMx Divided by Change in Concentration from the Uncalibrated AQAT 
                                                                               
                                                                               
                                                                               
                                                                         0.2743
                                                                         0.4998


(2) Create a calibrated version of the ozone AQAT for emission budget analysis for the proposed rule

      Next, as was done at proposal, EPA used 2023 base case emissions and 2023 base case air quality ozone contributions from the air quality modeling along with either the 2016-based or 2028-based calibration factors to create a "calibrated" AQAT specific to the year being assessed.  EPA examined the changes in the 2023 air quality contributions from changes in emissions relative to the 2023 base case emissions (while using the calibration factor).  This calibrated AQAT was then used to estimate the change in predicted ozone due to NOX emission reductions under each emission cost threshold level evaluated for EGUs and non-EGUs in each year.  
      First, as described in section VI of the preamble and above in section C of this TSD for EGUs, EPA identified various cost threshold levels of emissions based on projected changes in emissions rates and adjusted historical data.  For each state, for each year, the total anthropogenic NOx emissions (excluding the EGU emissions) are presented in Table D-3.  These "straight line" emissions inventories were created by linearly interpolating the emissions for all anthropogenic source sectors except EGUs between 2023 and 2016 (or between 2023 and 2028).  An additional set of sensitivity analyses were done for 2021 and 2022 using the 2021 emission inventory directly and by linearly interpolating the emissions for all source sectors (except EGUs) between the 2021 and 2023 inventories.
      The EGU point inventory is composed of emissions from units that report emissions to EPA's Clean Air Markets Division (CAMD) under 40 CFR Part 75 (most emissions from these sources are measured by CEMS) and units that are typically included in EPA's power sector modeling using the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) but that do not report to CAMD and typically lack CEMS (i.e., the nonCEM units).  Within the air quality modeling platform, different approaches are taken depending on whether an emissions inventory for EGUs is created using an IPM-based emission estimates or an engineering analysis based platform.  The nonCEM components for various air quality model platforms are shown in Table D-4.  For each year, based on the available air quality modeling runs available (in 2016, 2023, and 2028) an engineering-based nonCEM point EGU component was created (Table D-5).  For the years from 2016 through 2023, this was a straight line linear interpolation of the 2016 and 2023 nonCEM component from the engineering based air quality runs.  For years 2023 through 2028, we used 2023 nonCEM values held constant for all years.  The component of the EGU point inventory from CAMD reporting units (labelled "CEMs") was developed using engineering analysis (see section C for details).   For each year, we show EGU emissions for units with CEMs as a function of cost threshold level (see Tables C-1 through C-5 for the years 2021 through 2025, respectively).  These levels include: 
 Engineering Baseline, 
 $500/ton, 
 Optimize SCR, 
 Optimize SCR + State-of-the-Art Combustion Controls (referred to as Low NOx Burners, or LNB), 
 Optimize SNCR+ SCR , 
 Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB ,
 New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB 
 New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB.
      
      In the construction of AQAT, for each scenario, we assembled an emission inventory from all anthropogenic sources for each state.  In other words, we combine the year-specific anthropogenic emissions from Table D-3, with the relevant EGU nonCEM component from D-5, and one of the EGU CEM estimates from Tables C-1 through C-5.  
      Finally, these emission totals are compared to the 2023 case that was modeled with CAMx.  For each emission cost threshold level in each analysis year, EPA calculated the ratio of the emission differences from the scenario and the 2023 air quality modeling base case to the total NOX emissions for the 2023 air quality modeling base case used in the air quality modeling for each state (see Tables D-6 through D-10). Scenarios that are not viable, for technical or policy reasons, have been grayed out in these tables.
      For each year, we also created a complete "straight line" emissions inventory including a linear interpolation of the EGU inventory from the air quality modeling between 2023 and 2016 and between 2023 and 2028.  For the sensitivity analysis, the interpolation was between 2021 and 2023.  The emission differences and air quality estimates for the two sensitivity scenarios can be found in Appendix H.  In Table D-11, we examined the emission reduction for non-EGUs in tranche 1 for glass and cement controls below $2,000 per ton, and then estimated the ratio of the emission difference relative to the 2023 air quality modeling base case.
      For each cost threshold level analyzed, on a receptor-by-receptor basis, the emissions change for each upwind state is associated with one of two emission levels (either the engineering base case emission level for that year or the particular cost threshold level) depending on whether the upwind state is "linked" to that receptor or if the receptor is located within the state.  States that are contributing above the air quality threshold (i.e., greater than or equal to 1 percent of the NAAQS) to the monitor, as well as the state containing the monitor, make NOX emission reductions available at the particular cost threshold level for that year.  The emissions for all other states are adjusted to the engineering base case level for that year.
      For the $1,800/ton control case at various years, all states that were linked to any receptor in 2021 were simultaneously adjusted to the emission levels in the control case, regardless of whether (or not) the state was "linked" to a particular receptor.  This scenario examines the emission results when budgets have been applied to the geography. For each monitor, the predicted  change in contribution of ozone from each state is calculated by multiplying the state-specific 2023 base case ozone contributions from the air quality modeling by the calibration factor as well as by the ratio of the change in emissions (Tables D-1 and D-6 through D-10, for either the emission cost threshold level or the engineering base case emission level depending on whether the state is linked).  This calibrated change in ozone is then added to the ozone contribution from the 2023 base case air quality modeling.  The result is the state and receptor specific "calibrated" total ozone contribution after implementation of the emission at a particular cost threshold level.  
      For each monitor, these state-level "calibrated" contributions are then summed to estimate total ozone contribution from the states to a particular receptor in the CAMx modeling domain.  Finally, "other" modeled ozone contributions ("CAN_MEX", "OFFSHORE", "USCANMEX_FIRE",  "ICBC", and "BIOG") are added from the 2023 base case air quality modeling to the state contributions to account for other sources of ozone affecting the modeling domain.  The total ozone from all the states and "other" contributions equals the average design values estimated in the assessment tool.  The maximum design values were estimated by multiplying the estimated average design values by the ratio of the modeled 2023 base case maximum to average design values.
      Generally, as the emission cost threshold stringency increased, the estimated average and maximum design values at each receptor decreased.  In the assessment tool, the estimated value of the average design value was used to estimate whether the location will be out of attainment, while the estimated maximum design value was used to estimate whether the location will have problems maintaining the NAAQS.  The area was noted as having a nonattainment or maintenance issue if either estimated air quality level was greater than or equal to 76 ppb.  

Table D-3.  Ozone Season Anthropogenic NOX Emissions (Tons) without EGUs for Each State.
                                     State
                                     2021
                                     2022
                                     2023
                                     2024
                                     2025
                                     2026
                               2021 Sensitivity
                               2022 Sensitivity
Alabama
                                                                        69,987 
                                                                        66,163 
                                                                        62,338 
                                                                        60,603 
                                                                        58,868 
                                                                        57,134 
                                                                        66,126 
                                                                        64,232 
Arizona
                                                                        45,793 
                                                                        42,719 
                                                                        39,644 
                                                                        38,220 
                                                                        36,796 
                                                                        35,371 
                                                                        42,094 
                                                                        40,869 
Arkansas
                                                                        42,259 
                                                                        39,586 
                                                                        36,914 
                                                                        35,793 
                                                                        34,672 
                                                                        33,551 
                                                                        40,275 
                                                                        38,594 
California
                                                                       161,697 
                                                                       152,246 
                                                                       142,795 
                                                                       140,823 
                                                                       138,852 
                                                                       136,880 
                                                                       155,951 
                                                                       149,373 
Colorado
                                                                        59,562 
                                                                        56,774 
                                                                        53,986 
                                                                        52,934 
                                                                        51,881 
                                                                        50,829 
                                                                        55,717 
                                                                        54,852 
Connecticut
                                                                        12,579 
                                                                        11,683 
                                                                        10,787 
                                                                        10,496 
                                                                        10,205 
                                                                         9,914 
                                                                        11,598 
                                                                        11,193 
Delaware
                                                                         7,443 
                                                                         7,053 
                                                                         6,664 
                                                                         6,514 
                                                                         6,365 
                                                                         6,216 
                                                                         7,046 
                                                                         6,855 
District of Columbia
                                                                         1,817 
                                                                         1,713 
                                                                         1,609 
                                                                         1,556 
                                                                         1,504 
                                                                         1,452 
                                                                         1,678 
                                                                         1,643 
Florida
                                                                       113,717 
                                                                       105,687 
                                                                        97,657 
                                                                        94,900 
                                                                        92,143 
                                                                        89,385 
                                                                       101,801 
                                                                        99,729 
Georgia
                                                                        77,170 
                                                                        71,638 
                                                                        66,107 
                                                                        64,178 
                                                                        62,248 
                                                                        60,319 
                                                                        71,469 
                                                                        68,788 
Idaho
                                                                        22,332 
                                                                        21,039 
                                                                        19,745 
                                                                        19,039 
                                                                        18,333 
                                                                        17,627 
                                                                        21,057 
                                                                        20,401 
Illinois
                                                                       103,427 
                                                                        98,260 
                                                                        93,094 
                                                                        90,938 
                                                                        88,782 
                                                                        86,626 
                                                                        97,378 
                                                                        95,236 
Indiana
                                                                        73,016 
                                                                        68,763 
                                                                        64,511 
                                                                        62,670 
                                                                        60,829 
                                                                        58,988 
                                                                        69,443 
                                                                        66,977 
Iowa
                                                                        42,556 
                                                                        39,903 
                                                                        37,250 
                                                                        35,915 
                                                                        34,580 
                                                                        33,246 
                                                                        40,668 
                                                                        38,959 
Kansas
                                                                        67,361 
                                                                        64,151 
                                                                        60,941 
                                                                        59,345 
                                                                        57,749 
                                                                        56,153 
                                                                        64,927 
                                                                        62,934 
Kentucky
                                                                        49,241 
                                                                        46,459 
                                                                        43,676 
                                                                        42,486 
                                                                        41,296 
                                                                        40,106 
                                                                        46,190 
                                                                        44,933 
Louisiana
                                                                       101,112 
                                                                        98,267 
                                                                        95,423 
                                                                        94,142 
                                                                        92,862 
                                                                        91,582 
                                                                        99,116 
                                                                        97,269 
Maine
                                                                        13,285 
                                                                        12,535 
                                                                        11,786 
                                                                        11,486 
                                                                        11,186 
                                                                        10,886 
                                                                        12,544 
                                                                        12,165 
Maryland
                                                                        28,862 
                                                                        26,913 
                                                                        24,963 
                                                                        24,334 
                                                                        23,705 
                                                                        23,076 
                                                                        25,561 
                                                                        25,262 
Massachusetts
                                                                        33,806 
                                                                        32,138 
                                                                        30,469 
                                                                        29,869 
                                                                        29,269 
                                                                        28,669 
                                                                        31,101 
                                                                        30,785 
Michigan
                                                                        81,760 
                                                                        77,760 
                                                                        73,761 
                                                                        72,229 
                                                                        70,696 
                                                                        69,163 
                                                                        77,274 
                                                                        75,518 
Minnesota
                                                                        62,574 
                                                                        58,958 
                                                                        55,342 
                                                                        53,789 
                                                                        52,236 
                                                                        50,683 
                                                                        61,433 
                                                                        58,387 
Mississippi
                                                                        35,723 
                                                                        33,389 
                                                                        31,055 
                                                                        30,299 
                                                                        29,543 
                                                                        28,787 
                                                                        33,414 
                                                                        32,234 
Missouri
                                                                        68,437 
                                                                        63,937 
                                                                        59,436 
                                                                        57,302 
                                                                        55,169 
                                                                        53,035 
                                                                        64,699 
                                                                        62,068 
Montana
                                                                        27,412 
                                                                        26,140 
                                                                        24,868 
                                                                        24,079 
                                                                        23,290 
                                                                        22,501 
                                                                        27,238 
                                                                        26,053 
Nebraska
                                                                        38,582 
                                                                        36,322 
                                                                        34,063 
                                                                        32,847 
                                                                        31,631 
                                                                        30,414 
                                                                        37,204 
                                                                        35,634 
Nevada
                                                                        21,229 
                                                                        19,836 
                                                                        18,443 
                                                                        17,822 
                                                                        17,202 
                                                                        16,581 
                                                                        19,156 
                                                                        18,799 
New Hampshire
                                                                         8,429 
                                                                         7,948 
                                                                         7,466 
                                                                         7,280 
                                                                         7,093 
                                                                         6,906 
                                                                         7,803 
                                                                         7,634 
New Jersey
                                                                        41,044 
                                                                        38,117 
                                                                        35,189 
                                                                        34,314 
                                                                        33,439 
                                                                        32,564 
                                                                        37,016 
                                                                        36,102 
New Mexico
                                                                        52,452 
                                                                        50,678 
                                                                        48,905 
                                                                        47,794 
                                                                        46,684 
                                                                        45,573 
                                                                        51,454 
                                                                        50,179 
New York
                                                                        78,610 
                                                                        74,563 
                                                                        70,517 
                                                                        68,874 
                                                                        67,231 
                                                                        65,587 
                                                                        71,570 
                                                                        71,043 
North Carolina
                                                                        68,043 
                                                                        63,994 
                                                                        59,944 
                                                                        58,207 
                                                                        56,469 
                                                                        54,732 
                                                                        63,635 
                                                                        61,790 
North Dakota
                                                                        37,522 
                                                                        36,370 
                                                                        35,218 
                                                                        34,332 
                                                                        33,446 
                                                                        32,561 
                                                                        38,415 
                                                                        36,816 
Ohio
                                                                        90,701 
                                                                        85,504 
                                                                        80,307 
                                                                        78,080 
                                                                        75,853 
                                                                        73,626 
                                                                        86,304 
                                                                        83,306 
Oklahoma
                                                                        96,329 
                                                                        94,061 
                                                                        91,794 
                                                                        89,825 
                                                                        87,856 
                                                                        85,887 
                                                                        95,756 
                                                                        93,775 
Oregon
                                                                        34,601 
                                                                        32,676 
                                                                        30,751 
                                                                        29,716 
                                                                        28,681 
                                                                        27,646 
                                                                        32,399 
                                                                        31,575 
Pennsylvania
                                                                       106,545 
                                                                       102,733 
                                                                        98,920 
                                                                        96,913 
                                                                        94,906 
                                                                        92,899 
                                                                        98,613 
                                                                        98,767 
Rhode Island
                                                                         5,095 
                                                                         4,739 
                                                                         4,384 
                                                                         4,258 
                                                                         4,133 
                                                                         4,007 
                                                                         4,661 
                                                                         4,522 
South Carolina
                                                                        45,792 
                                                                        42,877 
                                                                        39,963 
                                                                        38,799 
                                                                        37,636 
                                                                        36,472 
                                                                        42,507 
                                                                        41,235 
South Dakota
                                                                        15,556 
                                                                        14,414 
                                                                        13,273 
                                                                        12,653 
                                                                        12,032 
                                                                        11,412 
                                                                        14,992 
                                                                        14,132 
Tennessee
                                                                        61,367 
                                                                        57,590 
                                                                        53,813 
                                                                        52,363 
                                                                        50,913 
                                                                        49,462 
                                                                        56,856 
                                                                        55,335 
Texas
                                                                       297,010 
                                                                       283,927 
                                                                       270,845 
                                                                       265,662 
                                                                       260,480 
                                                                       255,297 
                                                                       287,305 
                                                                       279,075 
Utah
                                                                        33,095 
                                                                        31,333 
                                                                        29,572 
                                                                        28,803 
                                                                        28,034 
                                                                        27,266 
                                                                        30,909 
                                                                        30,240 
Vermont
                                                                         4,583 
                                                                         4,311 
                                                                         4,038 
                                                                         3,897 
                                                                         3,756 
                                                                         3,614 
                                                                         4,332 
                                                                         4,185 
Virginia
                                                                        61,278 
                                                                        57,313 
                                                                        53,347 
                                                                        51,893 
                                                                        50,439 
                                                                        48,985 
                                                                        55,980 
                                                                        54,664 
Washington
                                                                        65,990 
                                                                        62,147 
                                                                        58,305 
                                                                        56,338 
                                                                        54,371 
                                                                        52,404 
                                                                        62,042 
                                                                        60,173 
West Virginia
                                                                        37,555 
                                                                        37,047 
                                                                        36,540 
                                                                        36,056 
                                                                        35,573 
                                                                        35,089 
                                                                        37,819 
                                                                        37,179 
Wisconsin
                                                                        50,430 
                                                                        47,071 
                                                                        43,713 
                                                                        42,447 
                                                                        41,182 
                                                                        39,917 
                                                                        47,763 
                                                                        45,738 
Wyoming
                                                                        34,845 
                                                                        34,165 
                                                                        33,486 
                                                                        33,011 
                                                                        32,536 
                                                                        32,061 
                                                                        34,546 
                                                                        34,016 
Tribal Data
                                                                         2,742 
                                                                         2,743 
                                                                         2,744 
                                                                         2,754 
                                                                         2,764 
                                                                         2,773 
                                                                         2,723 
                                                                         2,734 


Table D-4.  EGU Point Source NOX Emissions (Tons) from Units without CEMs from AQ Modeling Inventory.
                                     State
                             2016 Eng EGU nonCEMs
                             2023 IPM EGU nonCEMs
                             2023 Eng EGU nonCEMs
                             2028 IPM EGU nonCEMs
Alabama
                                                                            482
                                                                            473
                                                                            200
                                                                            450
Arizona
                                                                            367
                                                                          1,012
                                                                            377
                                                                          1,117
Arkansas
                                                                            141
                                                                            526
                                                                             87
                                                                            528
California
                                                                          1,972
                                                                          1,674
                                                                          1,968
                                                                            444
Colorado
                                                                            334
                                                                            604
                                                                            277
                                                                            998
Connecticut
                                                                          1,272
                                                                          1,759
                                                                          1,362
                                                                          1,788
Delaware
                                                                             80
                                                                            131
                                                                             80
                                                                            142
District of Columbia
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
Florida
                                                                          6,189
                                                                          8,376
                                                                          6,466
                                                                          8,569
Georgia
                                                                          1,580
                                                                            838
                                                                          1,640
                                                                            856
Idaho
                                                                            528
                                                                            164
                                                                            413
                                                                            161
Illinois
                                                                             55
                                                                          1,070
                                                                             49
                                                                          1,128
Indiana
                                                                            611
                                                                          1,165
                                                                            722
                                                                          1,115
Iowa
                                                                            635
                                                                            797
                                                                            618
                                                                            880
Kansas
                                                                            109
                                                                          1,001
                                                                             93
                                                                            653
Kentucky
                                                                              1
                                                                            366
                                                                              1
                                                                            561
Louisiana
                                                                          3,885
                                                                          1,943
                                                                          3,908
                                                                          1,964
Maine
                                                                          1,972
                                                                          1,280
                                                                          1,908
                                                                          1,275
Maryland
                                                                            901
                                                                          1,930
                                                                            924
                                                                          1,983
Massachusetts
                                                                          2,363
                                                                          2,044
                                                                          2,349
                                                                          2,046
Michigan
                                                                          1,367
                                                                          3,825
                                                                          1,367
                                                                          3,939
Minnesota
                                                                          1,740
                                                                          1,556
                                                                          1,502
                                                                          1,522
Mississippi
                                                                          1,726
                                                                            959
                                                                          1,341
                                                                            952
Missouri
                                                                            471
                                                                            331
                                                                            456
                                                                            349
Montana
                                                                            933
                                                                              3
                                                                            933
                                                                              3
Nebraska
                                                                            665
                                                                            750
                                                                            664
                                                                            748
Nevada
                                                                            155
                                                                            268
                                                                            155
                                                                            253
New Hampshire
                                                                            374
                                                                            215
                                                                            374
                                                                            206
New Jersey
                                                                          1,083
                                                                          1,844
                                                                          1,022
                                                                          1,955
New Mexico
                                                                             98
                                                                             72
                                                                             98
                                                                             88
New York
                                                                          1,996
                                                                          5,068
                                                                          2,094
                                                                          5,142
North Carolina
                                                                            740
                                                                          1,559
                                                                            862
                                                                          1,827
North Dakota
                                                                            156
                                                                            116
                                                                             14
                                                                            121
Ohio
                                                                            722
                                                                          1,881
                                                                            981
                                                                          1,961
Oklahoma
                                                                              1
                                                                            753
                                                                            277
                                                                            695
Oregon
                                                                            712
                                                                            515
                                                                            712
                                                                            515
Pennsylvania
                                                                          2,187
                                                                          5,945
                                                                          2,543
                                                                          5,573
Rhode Island
                                                                             35
                                                                            313
                                                                             35
                                                                            308
South Carolina
                                                                            604
                                                                            647
                                                                            698
                                                                            834
South Dakota
                                                                             30
                                                                             23
                                                                             30
                                                                             24
Tennessee
                                                                              7
                                                                            510
                                                                            116
                                                                            508
Texas
                                                                          1,996
                                                                          5,101
                                                                          2,026
                                                                          4,623
Utah
                                                                            561
                                                                            109
                                                                             48
                                                                             91
Vermont
                                                                             61
                                                                              9
                                                                              0
                                                                              9
Virginia
                                                                          2,995
                                                                          2,772
                                                                          2,996
                                                                          2,962
Washington
                                                                          1,536
                                                                            565
                                                                          1,503
                                                                            550
West Virginia
                                                                              1
                                                                              0
                                                                              1
                                                                              0
Wisconsin
                                                                             61
                                                                            612
                                                                             92
                                                                            617
Wyoming
                                                                             11
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
Tribal Data
                                                                             50
                                                                            455
                                                                             71
                                                                          3,080


Table D-5.  EGU Point Source NOX Emissions (Tons) from Units without CEMs Adjusted by Year.
                                     State
                                     2021
                                     2022
                                     2023
                                     2024
                                     2025
                                     2026
                               2021 Sensitivity
                               2022 Sensitivity
Alabama
                                                                            280
                                                                            240
                                                                            200
                                                                            200
                                                                            200
                                                                            200
                                                                            280
                                                                            240
Arizona
                                                                            374
                                                                            376
                                                                            377
                                                                            377
                                                                            377
                                                                            377
                                                                            374
                                                                            376
Arkansas
                                                                            102
                                                                             95
                                                                             87
                                                                             87
                                                                             87
                                                                             87
                                                                            102
                                                                             95
California
                                                                          1,969
                                                                          1,969
                                                                          1,968
                                                                          1,968
                                                                          1,968
                                                                          1,968
                                                                          1,969
                                                                          1,969
Colorado
                                                                            294
                                                                            286
                                                                            277
                                                                            277
                                                                            277
                                                                            277
                                                                            294
                                                                            286
Connecticut
                                                                          1,337
                                                                          1,349
                                                                          1,362
                                                                          1,362
                                                                          1,362
                                                                          1,362
                                                                          1,337
                                                                          1,349
Delaware
                                                                             80
                                                                             80
                                                                             80
                                                                             80
                                                                             80
                                                                             80
                                                                             80
                                                                             80
District of Columbia
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
Florida
                                                                          6,387
                                                                          6,426
                                                                          6,466
                                                                          6,466
                                                                          6,466
                                                                          6,466
                                                                          6,387
                                                                          6,426
Georgia
                                                                          1,623
                                                                          1,631
                                                                          1,640
                                                                          1,640
                                                                          1,640
                                                                          1,640
                                                                          1,623
                                                                          1,631
Idaho
                                                                            446
                                                                            429
                                                                            413
                                                                            413
                                                                            413
                                                                            413
                                                                            446
                                                                            429
Illinois
                                                                             50
                                                                             50
                                                                             49
                                                                             49
                                                                             49
                                                                             49
                                                                             50
                                                                             50
Indiana
                                                                            690
                                                                            706
                                                                            722
                                                                            722
                                                                            722
                                                                            722
                                                                            690
                                                                            706
Iowa
                                                                            623
                                                                            621
                                                                            618
                                                                            618
                                                                            618
                                                                            618
                                                                            623
                                                                            621
Kansas
                                                                             98
                                                                             95
                                                                             93
                                                                             93
                                                                             93
                                                                             93
                                                                             98
                                                                             95
Kentucky
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
Louisiana
                                                                          3,902
                                                                          3,905
                                                                          3,908
                                                                          3,908
                                                                          3,908
                                                                          3,908
                                                                          3,902
                                                                          3,905
Maine
                                                                          1,926
                                                                          1,917
                                                                          1,908
                                                                          1,908
                                                                          1,908
                                                                          1,908
                                                                          1,926
                                                                          1,917
Maryland
                                                                            918
                                                                            921
                                                                            924
                                                                            924
                                                                            924
                                                                            924
                                                                            918
                                                                            921
Massachusetts
                                                                          2,353
                                                                          2,351
                                                                          2,349
                                                                          2,349
                                                                          2,349
                                                                          2,349
                                                                          2,353
                                                                          2,351
Michigan
                                                                          1,367
                                                                          1,367
                                                                          1,367
                                                                          1,367
                                                                          1,367
                                                                          1,367
                                                                          1,367
                                                                          1,367
Minnesota
                                                                          1,570
                                                                          1,536
                                                                          1,502
                                                                          1,502
                                                                          1,502
                                                                          1,502
                                                                          1,570
                                                                          1,536
Mississippi
                                                                          1,451
                                                                          1,396
                                                                          1,341
                                                                          1,341
                                                                          1,341
                                                                          1,341
                                                                          1,451
                                                                          1,396
Missouri
                                                                            460
                                                                            458
                                                                            456
                                                                            456
                                                                            456
                                                                            456
                                                                            460
                                                                            458
Montana
                                                                            933
                                                                            933
                                                                            933
                                                                            933
                                                                            933
                                                                            933
                                                                            933
                                                                            933
Nebraska
                                                                            664
                                                                            664
                                                                            664
                                                                            664
                                                                            664
                                                                            664
                                                                            664
                                                                            664
Nevada
                                                                            155
                                                                            155
                                                                            155
                                                                            155
                                                                            155
                                                                            155
                                                                            155
                                                                            155
New Hampshire
                                                                            374
                                                                            374
                                                                            374
                                                                            374
                                                                            374
                                                                            374
                                                                            374
                                                                            374
New Jersey
                                                                          1,039
                                                                          1,031
                                                                          1,022
                                                                          1,022
                                                                          1,022
                                                                          1,022
                                                                          1,039
                                                                          1,031
New Mexico
                                                                             98
                                                                             98
                                                                             98
                                                                             98
                                                                             98
                                                                             98
                                                                             98
                                                                             98
New York
                                                                          2,066
                                                                          2,080
                                                                          2,094
                                                                          2,094
                                                                          2,094
                                                                          2,094
                                                                          2,066
                                                                          2,080
North Carolina
                                                                            827
                                                                            845
                                                                            862
                                                                            862
                                                                            862
                                                                            862
                                                                            827
                                                                            845
North Dakota
                                                                             54
                                                                             34
                                                                             14
                                                                             14
                                                                             14
                                                                             14
                                                                             54
                                                                             34
Ohio
                                                                            907
                                                                            944
                                                                            981
                                                                            981
                                                                            981
                                                                            981
                                                                            907
                                                                            944
Oklahoma
                                                                            198
                                                                            237
                                                                            277
                                                                            277
                                                                            277
                                                                            277
                                                                            198
                                                                            237
Oregon
                                                                            712
                                                                            712
                                                                            712
                                                                            712
                                                                            712
                                                                            712
                                                                            712
                                                                            712
Pennsylvania
                                                                          2,441
                                                                          2,492
                                                                          2,543
                                                                          2,543
                                                                          2,543
                                                                          2,543
                                                                          2,441
                                                                          2,492
Rhode Island
                                                                             35
                                                                             35
                                                                             35
                                                                             35
                                                                             35
                                                                             35
                                                                             35
                                                                             35
South Carolina
                                                                            671
                                                                            684
                                                                            698
                                                                            698
                                                                            698
                                                                            698
                                                                            671
                                                                            684
South Dakota
                                                                             30
                                                                             30
                                                                             30
                                                                             30
                                                                             30
                                                                             30
                                                                             30
                                                                             30
Tennessee
                                                                             85
                                                                            100
                                                                            116
                                                                            116
                                                                            116
                                                                            116
                                                                             85
                                                                            100
Texas
                                                                          2,017
                                                                          2,021
                                                                          2,026
                                                                          2,026
                                                                          2,026
                                                                          2,026
                                                                          2,017
                                                                          2,021
Utah
                                                                            195
                                                                            122
                                                                             48
                                                                             48
                                                                             48
                                                                             48
                                                                            195
                                                                            122
Vermont
                                                                             18
                                                                              9
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                             18
                                                                              9
Virginia
                                                                          2,996
                                                                          2,996
                                                                          2,996
                                                                          2,996
                                                                          2,996
                                                                          2,996
                                                                          2,996
                                                                          2,996
Washington
                                                                          1,513
                                                                          1,508
                                                                          1,503
                                                                          1,503
                                                                          1,503
                                                                          1,503
                                                                          1,513
                                                                          1,508
West Virginia
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
                                                                              1
Wisconsin
                                                                             83
                                                                             88
                                                                             92
                                                                             92
                                                                             92
                                                                             92
                                                                             83
                                                                             88
Wyoming
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0
                                                                              3
                                                                              2
Tribal Data
                                                                             65
                                                                             68
                                                                             71
                                                                             71
                                                                             71
                                                                             71
                                                                             65
                                                                             68



Table D-6.  2021 Fractional Difference in Emissions Relative to 2023 Air Quality Modeling Base Case for Each State.
State
Eng Baseline
$500/ton
Optimize SCR
Optimize SCR + LNB
Optimize SNCR+ SCR
Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
Straight Line Interpolation
Alabama
                                                                          0.151
                                                                          0.151
                                                                          0.151
                                                                          0.149
                                                                          0.151
                                                                          0.149
                                                                          0.149
                                                                          0.147
                                                                          0.140
Arizona
                                                                          0.145
                                                                          0.138
                                                                          0.127
                                                                          0.127
                                                                          0.127
                                                                          0.127
                                                                          0.132
                                                                          0.112
                                                                          0.160
Arkansas
                                                                          0.098
                                                                          0.096
                                                                          0.097
                                                                          0.097
                                                                          0.097
                                                                          0.097
                                                                          0.053
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.136
California
                                                                          0.135
                                                                          0.135
                                                                          0.135
                                                                          0.135
                                                                          0.135
                                                                          0.135
                                                                          0.135
                                                                          0.135
                                                                          0.132
Colorado
                                                                          0.095
                                                                          0.095
                                                                          0.095
                                                                          0.095
                                                                          0.095
                                                                          0.095
                                                                          0.077
                                                                          0.046
                                                                          0.117
Connecticut
                                                                          0.121
                                                                          0.119
                                                                          0.118
                                                                          0.118
                                                                          0.118
                                                                          0.118
                                                                          0.118
                                                                          0.118
                                                                          0.138
Delaware
                                                                          0.109
                                                                          0.109
                                                                          0.107
                                                                          0.107
                                                                          0.106
                                                                          0.106
                                                                          0.105
                                                                          0.105
                                                                          0.131
District of Columbia
                                                                          0.129
                                                                          0.129
                                                                          0.129
                                                                          0.129
                                                                          0.129
                                                                          0.129
                                                                          0.129
                                                                          0.129
                                                                          0.129
Florida
                                                                          0.187
                                                                          0.187
                                                                          0.175
                                                                          0.175
                                                                          0.174
                                                                          0.174
                                                                          0.168
                                                                          0.162
                                                                          0.182
Georgia
                                                                          0.175
                                                                          0.175
                                                                          0.175
                                                                          0.175
                                                                          0.175
                                                                          0.175
                                                                          0.175
                                                                          0.175
                                                                          0.162
Idaho
                                                                          0.153
                                                                          0.153
                                                                          0.153
                                                                          0.153
                                                                          0.153
                                                                          0.153
                                                                          0.153
                                                                          0.153
                                                                          0.136
Illinois
                                                                          0.089
                                                                          0.089
                                                                          0.087
                                                                          0.087
                                                                          0.086
                                                                          0.086
                                                                          0.078
                                                                          0.075
                                                                          0.111
Indiana
                                                                          0.088
                                                                          0.086
                                                                          0.054
                                                                          0.054
                                                                          0.054
                                                                          0.054
                                                                          0.040
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.164
Iowa
                                                                          0.060
                                                                          0.058
                                                                          0.043
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.043
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.009
                                                                         -0.040
                                                                          0.107
Kansas
                                                                          0.057
                                                                          0.057
                                                                          0.047
                                                                          0.047
                                                                          0.046
                                                                          0.046
                                                                          0.039
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.088
Kentucky
                                                                          0.248
                                                                          0.248
                                                                          0.243
                                                                          0.219
                                                                          0.242
                                                                          0.218
                                                                          0.185
                                                                          0.136
                                                                          0.201
Louisiana
                                                                          0.145
                                                                          0.144
                                                                          0.144
                                                                          0.144
                                                                          0.139
                                                                          0.139
                                                                          0.134
                                                                          0.118
                                                                          0.091
Maine
                                                                          0.163
                                                                          0.163
                                                                          0.163
                                                                          0.163
                                                                          0.163
                                                                          0.163
                                                                          0.163
                                                                          0.163
                                                                          0.131
Maryland
                                                                          0.126
                                                                          0.126
                                                                          0.126
                                                                          0.126
                                                                          0.126
                                                                          0.126
                                                                          0.120
                                                                          0.117
                                                                          0.166
Massachusetts
                                                                          0.106
                                                                          0.106
                                                                          0.106
                                                                          0.106
                                                                          0.106
                                                                          0.106
                                                                          0.105
                                                                          0.105
                                                                          0.109
Michigan
                                                                          0.107
                                                                          0.098
                                                                          0.093
                                                                          0.092
                                                                          0.093
                                                                          0.092
                                                                          0.079
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.100
Minnesota
                                                                          0.108
                                                                          0.106
                                                                          0.100
                                                                          0.100
                                                                          0.100
                                                                          0.100
                                                                          0.080
                                                                          0.072
                                                                          0.120
Mississippi
                                                                          0.332
                                                                          0.332
                                                                          0.332
                                                                          0.322
                                                                          0.332
                                                                          0.322
                                                                          0.303
                                                                          0.284
                                                                          0.188
Missouri
                                                                          0.090
                                                                          0.090
                                                                          0.076
                                                                          0.076
                                                                          0.075
                                                                          0.075
                                                                          0.071
                                                                          0.052
                                                                          0.161
Montana
                                                                          0.104
                                                                          0.104
                                                                          0.104
                                                                          0.104
                                                                          0.104
                                                                          0.104
                                                                          0.076
                                                                          0.045
                                                                          0.116
Nebraska
                                                                          0.089
                                                                          0.087
                                                                          0.088
                                                                          0.076
                                                                          0.088
                                                                          0.076
                                                                          0.044
                                                                          0.003
                                                                          0.103
Nevada
                                                                          0.249
                                                                          0.217
                                                                          0.198
                                                                          0.198
                                                                          0.198
                                                                          0.198
                                                                          0.178
                                                                          0.138
                                                                          0.173
New Hampshire
                                                                          0.184
                                                                          0.184
                                                                          0.173
                                                                          0.173
                                                                          0.173
                                                                          0.173
                                                                          0.173
                                                                          0.173
                                                                          0.147
New Jersey
                                                                          0.151
                                                                          0.151
                                                                          0.148
                                                                          0.148
                                                                          0.148
                                                                          0.148
                                                                          0.148
                                                                          0.148
                                                                          0.157
New Mexico
                                                                          0.076
                                                                          0.075
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.061
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.091
New York
                                                                          0.082
                                                                          0.082
                                                                          0.081
                                                                          0.081
                                                                          0.081
                                                                          0.081
                                                                          0.080
                                                                          0.080
                                                                          0.105
North Carolina
                                                                          0.109
                                                                          0.108
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.046
                                                                          0.046
                                                                          0.012
                                                                         -0.031
                                                                          0.093
North Dakota
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.063
                                                                          0.062
                                                                          0.062
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.006
                                                                         -0.112
                                                                          0.077
Ohio
                                                                          0.090
                                                                          0.086
                                                                          0.028
                                                                          0.028
                                                                          0.028
                                                                          0.028
                                                                          0.026
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.125
Oklahoma
                                                                          0.043
                                                                          0.043
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.032
                                                                          0.026
                                                                          0.054
Oregon
                                                                          0.134
                                                                          0.134
                                                                          0.134
                                                                          0.134
                                                                          0.134
                                                                          0.134
                                                                          0.134
                                                                          0.134
                                                                          0.134
Pennsylvania
                                                                          0.075
                                                                          0.074
                                                                          0.044
                                                                          0.044
                                                                          0.044
                                                                          0.044
                                                                          0.040
                                                                          0.039
                                                                          0.122
Rhode Island
                                                                          0.131
                                                                          0.131
                                                                          0.131
                                                                          0.131
                                                                          0.131
                                                                          0.131
                                                                          0.131
                                                                          0.131
                                                                          0.136
South Carolina
                                                                          0.109
                                                                          0.109
                                                                          0.084
                                                                          0.084
                                                                          0.084
                                                                          0.084
                                                                          0.084
                                                                          0.084
                                                                          0.128
South Dakota
                                                                          0.176
                                                                          0.176
                                                                          0.176
                                                                          0.176
                                                                          0.176
                                                                          0.176
                                                                          0.176
                                                                          0.176
                                                                          0.167
Tennessee
                                                                          0.154
                                                                          0.154
                                                                          0.151
                                                                          0.151
                                                                          0.151
                                                                          0.151
                                                                          0.149
                                                                          0.149
                                                                          0.163
Texas
                                                                          0.094
                                                                          0.091
                                                                          0.086
                                                                          0.086
                                                                          0.086
                                                                          0.086
                                                                          0.067
                                                                          0.047
                                                                          0.095
Utah
                                                                          0.116
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.063
                                                                          0.063
                                                                          0.063
                                                                          0.063
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.017
                                                                          0.142
Vermont
                                                                          0.150
                                                                          0.150
                                                                          0.150
                                                                          0.150
                                                                          0.150
                                                                          0.150
                                                                          0.150
                                                                          0.150
                                                                          0.143
Virginia
                                                                          0.192
                                                                          0.191
                                                                          0.191
                                                                          0.186
                                                                          0.189
                                                                          0.185
                                                                          0.184
                                                                          0.177
                                                                          0.176
Washington
                                                                          0.172
                                                                          0.172
                                                                          0.172
                                                                          0.172
                                                                          0.172
                                                                          0.172
                                                                          0.172
                                                                          0.158
                                                                          0.148
West Virginia
                                                                         -0.021
                                                                         -0.024
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.057
                                                                         -0.055
                                                                         -0.063
                                                                         -0.064
                                                                         -0.106
                                                                          0.042
Wisconsin
                                                                          0.155
                                                                          0.152
                                                                          0.149
                                                                          0.149
                                                                          0.149
                                                                          0.149
                                                                          0.148
                                                                          0.146
                                                                          0.159
Wyoming
                                                                          0.127
                                                                          0.127
                                                                          0.124
                                                                          0.106
                                                                          0.124
                                                                          0.106
                                                                          0.046
                                                                         -0.028
                                                                          0.089
Tribal Data
                                                                          0.079
                                                                          0.079
                                                                          0.079
                                                                          0.079
                                                                          0.079
                                                                          0.079
                                                                         -0.012
                                                                         -0.189
                                                                          0.580

Note: Scenarios that are not viable, for technical or policy reasons, have been grayed out
Table D-7.  2022 Fractional Difference in Emissions Relative to 2023 Air Quality Modeling Base Case for Each State.
State
Eng Baseline
$500/ton
Optimize SCR
Optimize SCR + LNB
Optimize SNCR+ SCR
Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
Straight Line Interpolation
Alabama
                                                                          0.094
                                                                          0.094
                                                                          0.094
                                                                          0.092
                                                                          0.094
                                                                          0.092
                                                                          0.092
                                                                          0.090
                                                                          0.070
Arizona
                                                                          0.076
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.059
                                                                          0.059
                                                                          0.059
                                                                          0.059
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.044
                                                                          0.080
Arkansas
                                                                          0.040
                                                                          0.038
                                                                          0.039
                                                                          0.039
                                                                          0.039
                                                                          0.039
                                                                         -0.005
                                                                         -0.047
                                                                          0.068
California
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.066
Colorado
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.032
                                                                          0.000
                                                                          0.059
Connecticut
                                                                          0.051
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.069
Delaware
                                                                          0.053
                                                                          0.053
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.066
District of Columbia
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.065
Florida
                                                                          0.114
                                                                          0.114
                                                                          0.103
                                                                          0.103
                                                                          0.102
                                                                          0.102
                                                                          0.096
                                                                          0.090
                                                                          0.091
Georgia
                                                                          0.100
                                                                          0.100
                                                                          0.100
                                                                          0.100
                                                                          0.100
                                                                          0.100
                                                                          0.100
                                                                          0.100
                                                                          0.081
Idaho
                                                                          0.088
                                                                          0.088
                                                                          0.088
                                                                          0.088
                                                                          0.088
                                                                          0.088
                                                                          0.088
                                                                          0.088
                                                                          0.068
Illinois
                                                                          0.039
                                                                          0.039
                                                                          0.037
                                                                          0.037
                                                                          0.037
                                                                          0.037
                                                                          0.029
                                                                          0.025
                                                                          0.055
Indiana
                                                                          0.031
                                                                          0.029
                                                                         -0.003
                                                                         -0.003
                                                                         -0.003
                                                                         -0.003
                                                                         -0.015
                                                                         -0.029
                                                                          0.082
Iowa
                                                                          0.006
                                                                          0.003
                                                                         -0.012
                                                                         -0.013
                                                                         -0.012
                                                                         -0.013
                                                                         -0.045
                                                                         -0.094
                                                                          0.053
Kansas
                                                                          0.011
                                                                          0.011
                                                                          0.001
                                                                          0.001
                                                                          0.000
                                                                          0.000
                                                                         -0.007
                                                                         -0.024
                                                                          0.044
Kentucky
                                                                          0.194
                                                                          0.195
                                                                          0.189
                                                                          0.165
                                                                          0.189
                                                                          0.165
                                                                          0.132
                                                                          0.083
                                                                          0.100
Louisiana
                                                                          0.118
                                                                          0.117
                                                                          0.117
                                                                          0.117
                                                                          0.112
                                                                          0.112
                                                                          0.107
                                                                          0.091
                                                                          0.046
Maine
                                                                          0.106
                                                                          0.106
                                                                          0.106
                                                                          0.106
                                                                          0.106
                                                                          0.106
                                                                          0.106
                                                                          0.106
                                                                          0.065
Maryland
                                                                          0.047
                                                                          0.047
                                                                          0.047
                                                                          0.047
                                                                          0.047
                                                                          0.047
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.083
Massachusetts
                                                                          0.055
                                                                          0.055
                                                                          0.055
                                                                          0.055
                                                                          0.055
                                                                          0.055
                                                                          0.055
                                                                          0.055
                                                                          0.055
Michigan
                                                                          0.056
                                                                          0.047
                                                                          0.043
                                                                          0.043
                                                                          0.043
                                                                          0.043
                                                                          0.030
                                                                          0.015
                                                                          0.050
Minnesota
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.047
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.021
                                                                          0.014
                                                                          0.060
Mississippi
                                                                          0.262
                                                                          0.262
                                                                          0.262
                                                                          0.252
                                                                          0.262
                                                                          0.252
                                                                          0.233
                                                                          0.214
                                                                          0.094
Missouri
                                                                          0.030
                                                                          0.029
                                                                          0.015
                                                                          0.015
                                                                          0.014
                                                                          0.014
                                                                          0.011
                                                                         -0.008
                                                                          0.080
Montana
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.021
                                                                         -0.010
                                                                          0.058
Nebraska
                                                                          0.037
                                                                          0.035
                                                                          0.036
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.036
                                                                          0.024
                                                                         -0.007
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                          0.051
Nevada
                                                                          0.127
                                                                          0.097
                                                                          0.078
                                                                          0.078
                                                                          0.078
                                                                          0.078
                                                                          0.071
                                                                          0.059
                                                                          0.086
New Hampshire
                                                                          0.122
                                                                          0.122
                                                                          0.111
                                                                          0.111
                                                                          0.111
                                                                          0.111
                                                                          0.111
                                                                          0.111
                                                                          0.073
New Jersey
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.071
                                                                          0.071
                                                                          0.071
                                                                          0.071
                                                                          0.071
                                                                          0.071
                                                                          0.078
New Mexico
                                                                          0.043
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.040
                                                                          0.040
                                                                          0.039
                                                                          0.039
                                                                          0.028
                                                                         -0.010
                                                                          0.046
New York
                                                                          0.030
                                                                          0.030
                                                                          0.029
                                                                          0.029
                                                                          0.029
                                                                          0.029
                                                                          0.028
                                                                          0.028
                                                                          0.052
North Carolina
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.047
                                                                         -0.012
                                                                         -0.012
                                                                         -0.014
                                                                         -0.014
                                                                         -0.047
                                                                         -0.091
                                                                          0.047
North Dakota
                                                                          0.039
                                                                          0.038
                                                                          0.037
                                                                          0.037
                                                                          0.023
                                                                          0.023
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                         -0.137
                                                                          0.038
Ohio
                                                                          0.039
                                                                          0.035
                                                                         -0.024
                                                                         -0.024
                                                                         -0.024
                                                                         -0.024
                                                                         -0.025
                                                                         -0.030
                                                                          0.062
Oklahoma
                                                                          0.021
                                                                          0.020
                                                                          0.019
                                                                          0.019
                                                                          0.019
                                                                          0.019
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.004
                                                                          0.027
Oregon
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.067
Pennsylvania
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.006
                                                                          0.006
                                                                          0.061
Rhode Island
                                                                          0.056
                                                                          0.056
                                                                          0.056
                                                                          0.056
                                                                          0.056
                                                                          0.056
                                                                          0.056
                                                                          0.056
                                                                          0.068
South Carolina
                                                                          0.046
                                                                          0.046
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.064
South Dakota
                                                                          0.093
                                                                          0.093
                                                                          0.093
                                                                          0.093
                                                                          0.093
                                                                          0.093
                                                                          0.093
                                                                          0.093
                                                                          0.083
Tennessee
                                                                          0.088
                                                                          0.088
                                                                          0.085
                                                                          0.085
                                                                          0.085
                                                                          0.085
                                                                          0.084
                                                                          0.084
                                                                          0.081
Texas
                                                                          0.052
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.044
                                                                          0.044
                                                                          0.044
                                                                          0.044
                                                                          0.026
                                                                          0.005
                                                                          0.048
Utah
                                                                          0.065
                                                                          0.013
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.019
                                                                         -0.035
                                                                          0.071
Vermont
                                                                          0.080
                                                                          0.080
                                                                          0.080
                                                                          0.080
                                                                          0.080
                                                                          0.080
                                                                          0.080
                                                                          0.080
                                                                          0.072
Virginia
                                                                          0.116
                                                                          0.116
                                                                          0.115
                                                                          0.111
                                                                          0.114
                                                                          0.110
                                                                          0.109
                                                                          0.101
                                                                          0.088
Washington
                                                                          0.107
                                                                          0.107
                                                                          0.107
                                                                          0.107
                                                                          0.107
                                                                          0.107
                                                                          0.107
                                                                          0.093
                                                                          0.074
West Virginia
                                                                         -0.030
                                                                         -0.033
                                                                         -0.058
                                                                         -0.067
                                                                         -0.064
                                                                         -0.073
                                                                         -0.074
                                                                         -0.116
                                                                          0.021
Wisconsin
                                                                          0.080
                                                                          0.077
                                                                          0.074
                                                                          0.074
                                                                          0.074
                                                                          0.074
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.079
Wyoming
                                                                          0.097
                                                                          0.097
                                                                          0.094
                                                                          0.076
                                                                          0.094
                                                                          0.076
                                                                          0.016
                                                                         -0.058
                                                                          0.045
Tribal Data
                                                                          0.080
                                                                          0.080
                                                                          0.080
                                                                          0.080
                                                                          0.080
                                                                          0.080
                                                                         -0.011
                                                                         -0.188
                                                                          0.290


Table D-8.  2023 Fractional Difference in Emissions Relative to 2023 Air Quality Modeling Base Case for Each State.
State
Eng Baseline
$500/ton
Optimize SCR
Optimize SCR + LNB
Optimize SNCR+ SCR
Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
Straight Line Interpolation
Alabama
                                                                          0.037
                                                                          0.037
                                                                          0.037
                                                                          0.035
                                                                          0.037
                                                                          0.035
                                                                          0.035
                                                                          0.033
                                                                          0.000
Arizona
                                                                          0.008
                                                                          0.002
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.005
                                                                         -0.025
                                                                          0.000
Arkansas
                                                                         -0.018
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                         -0.018
                                                                         -0.018
                                                                         -0.018
                                                                         -0.018
                                                                         -0.062
                                                                         -0.105
                                                                          0.000
California
                                                                          0.005
                                                                          0.005
                                                                          0.005
                                                                          0.005
                                                                          0.005
                                                                          0.005
                                                                          0.005
                                                                          0.005
                                                                          0.000
Colorado
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.026
                                                                         -0.055
                                                                          0.000
Connecticut
                                                                         -0.018
                                                                         -0.021
                                                                         -0.021
                                                                         -0.021
                                                                         -0.021
                                                                         -0.021
                                                                         -0.021
                                                                         -0.021
                                                                          0.000
Delaware
                                                                         -0.003
                                                                         -0.003
                                                                         -0.005
                                                                         -0.005
                                                                         -0.006
                                                                         -0.006
                                                                         -0.007
                                                                         -0.007
                                                                          0.000
District of Columbia
                                                                         -0.001
                                                                         -0.001
                                                                         -0.001
                                                                         -0.001
                                                                         -0.001
                                                                         -0.001
                                                                         -0.001
                                                                         -0.001
                                                                          0.000
Florida
                                                                          0.040
                                                                          0.040
                                                                          0.028
                                                                          0.028
                                                                          0.028
                                                                          0.028
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.016
                                                                          0.000
Georgia
                                                                          0.016
                                                                          0.016
                                                                          0.016
                                                                          0.016
                                                                          0.016
                                                                          0.016
                                                                          0.015
                                                                          0.015
                                                                          0.000
Idaho
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.000
Illinois
                                                                         -0.020
                                                                         -0.020
                                                                         -0.021
                                                                         -0.021
                                                                         -0.022
                                                                         -0.022
                                                                         -0.030
                                                                         -0.034
                                                                          0.000
Indiana
                                                                         -0.021
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.055
                                                                         -0.055
                                                                         -0.055
                                                                         -0.055
                                                                         -0.067
                                                                         -0.080
                                                                          0.000
Iowa
                                                                         -0.068
                                                                         -0.070
                                                                         -0.085
                                                                         -0.086
                                                                         -0.085
                                                                         -0.086
                                                                         -0.118
                                                                         -0.167
                                                                          0.000
Kansas
                                                                         -0.036
                                                                         -0.036
                                                                         -0.045
                                                                         -0.045
                                                                         -0.046
                                                                         -0.046
                                                                         -0.053
                                                                         -0.070
                                                                          0.000
Kentucky
                                                                          0.141
                                                                          0.141
                                                                          0.135
                                                                          0.111
                                                                          0.135
                                                                          0.111
                                                                          0.078
                                                                          0.029
                                                                          0.000
Louisiana
                                                                          0.091
                                                                          0.090
                                                                          0.090
                                                                          0.090
                                                                          0.085
                                                                          0.085
                                                                          0.080
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.000
Maine
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.000
Maryland
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.028
                                                                         -0.028
                                                                          0.000
Massachusetts
                                                                          0.004
                                                                          0.004
                                                                          0.004
                                                                          0.004
                                                                          0.004
                                                                          0.004
                                                                          0.004
                                                                          0.004
                                                                          0.000
Michigan
                                                                         -0.016
                                                                         -0.025
                                                                         -0.029
                                                                         -0.029
                                                                         -0.029
                                                                         -0.029
                                                                         -0.042
                                                                         -0.057
                                                                          0.000
Minnesota
                                                                         -0.028
                                                                         -0.030
                                                                         -0.036
                                                                         -0.036
                                                                         -0.036
                                                                         -0.036
                                                                         -0.054
                                                                         -0.061
                                                                          0.000
Mississippi
                                                                          0.191
                                                                          0.191
                                                                          0.191
                                                                          0.182
                                                                          0.191
                                                                          0.182
                                                                          0.162
                                                                          0.143
                                                                          0.000
Missouri
                                                                         -0.034
                                                                         -0.035
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.050
                                                                         -0.050
                                                                         -0.053
                                                                         -0.072
                                                                          0.000
Montana
                                                                          0.005
                                                                          0.005
                                                                          0.005
                                                                          0.005
                                                                          0.005
                                                                          0.005
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.054
                                                                          0.000
Nebraska
                                                                         -0.015
                                                                         -0.017
                                                                         -0.016
                                                                         -0.028
                                                                         -0.016
                                                                         -0.028
                                                                         -0.059
                                                                         -0.101
                                                                          0.000
Nevada
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.019
                                                                          0.000
                                                                          0.000
                                                                          0.000
                                                                          0.000
                                                                         -0.007
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                          0.000
New Hampshire
                                                                          0.060
                                                                          0.060
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.000
New Jersey
                                                                         -0.005
                                                                         -0.005
                                                                         -0.007
                                                                         -0.007
                                                                         -0.007
                                                                         -0.007
                                                                         -0.007
                                                                         -0.007
                                                                          0.000
New Mexico
                                                                         -0.046
                                                                         -0.047
                                                                         -0.048
                                                                         -0.048
                                                                         -0.048
                                                                         -0.048
                                                                         -0.056
                                                                         -0.056
                                                                          0.000
New York
                                                                         -0.022
                                                                         -0.022
                                                                         -0.022
                                                                         -0.022
                                                                         -0.022
                                                                         -0.022
                                                                         -0.024
                                                                         -0.024
                                                                          0.000
North Carolina
                                                                         -0.004
                                                                         -0.005
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.067
                                                                         -0.067
                                                                         -0.100
                                                                         -0.143
                                                                          0.000
North Dakota
                                                                         -0.045
                                                                         -0.045
                                                                         -0.046
                                                                         -0.046
                                                                         -0.060
                                                                         -0.060
                                                                         -0.086
                                                                         -0.193
                                                                          0.000
Ohio
                                                                         -0.014
                                                                         -0.017
                                                                         -0.076
                                                                         -0.076
                                                                         -0.076
                                                                         -0.076
                                                                         -0.078
                                                                         -0.082
                                                                          0.000
Oklahoma
                                                                         -0.001
                                                                         -0.002
                                                                         -0.003
                                                                         -0.003
                                                                         -0.003
                                                                         -0.003
                                                                         -0.012
                                                                         -0.018
                                                                          0.000
Oregon
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.000
Pennsylvania
                                                                          0.008
                                                                          0.007
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.027
                                                                         -0.028
                                                                          0.000
Rhode Island
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                          0.000
South Carolina
                                                                         -0.016
                                                                         -0.016
                                                                         -0.041
                                                                         -0.041
                                                                         -0.041
                                                                         -0.041
                                                                         -0.041
                                                                         -0.041
                                                                          0.000
South Dakota
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.000
Tennessee
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.019
                                                                          0.019
                                                                          0.019
                                                                          0.019
                                                                          0.018
                                                                          0.018
                                                                          0.000
Texas
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.007
                                                                          0.002
                                                                          0.002
                                                                          0.002
                                                                          0.002
                                                                         -0.017
                                                                         -0.037
                                                                          0.000
Utah
                                                                          0.013
                                                                         -0.039
                                                                         -0.039
                                                                         -0.039
                                                                         -0.039
                                                                         -0.039
                                                                         -0.032
                                                                         -0.086
                                                                          0.000
Vermont
                                                                          0.011
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.000
Virginia
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.044
                                                                          0.047
                                                                          0.043
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.034
                                                                          0.000
Washington
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.027
                                                                          0.000
West Virginia
                                                                         -0.040
                                                                         -0.043
                                                                         -0.067
                                                                         -0.076
                                                                         -0.074
                                                                         -0.082
                                                                         -0.083
                                                                         -0.125
                                                                          0.000
Wisconsin
                                                                          0.008
                                                                          0.005
                                                                          0.002
                                                                          0.002
                                                                          0.002
                                                                          0.002
                                                                          0.001
                                                                          0.001
                                                                          0.000
Wyoming
                                                                          0.066
                                                                          0.066
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.045
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.045
                                                                         -0.015
                                                                         -0.089
                                                                          0.000
Tribal Data
                                                                          0.081
                                                                          0.081
                                                                          0.081
                                                                          0.081
                                                                          0.081
                                                                          0.081
                                                                         -0.011
                                                                         -0.187
                                                                          0.000


Table D-9.  2024 Fractional Difference in Emissions Relative to 2023 Air Quality Modeling Base Case for Each State.
State
Eng Baseline
$500/ton
Optimize SCR
Optimize SCR + LNB
Optimize SNCR+ SCR
Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
Straight Line Interpolation
Alabama
                                                                          0.011
                                                                          0.011
                                                                          0.011
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.011
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.007
                                                                         -0.021
Arizona
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.030
                                                                         -0.041
                                                                         -0.041
                                                                         -0.041
                                                                         -0.041
                                                                         -0.036
                                                                         -0.056
                                                                         -0.036
Arkansas
                                                                         -0.042
                                                                         -0.043
                                                                         -0.042
                                                                         -0.042
                                                                         -0.042
                                                                         -0.042
                                                                         -0.087
                                                                         -0.129
                                                                         -0.028
California
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.016
Colorado
                                                                         -0.038
                                                                         -0.038
                                                                         -0.038
                                                                         -0.038
                                                                         -0.038
                                                                         -0.038
                                                                         -0.052
                                                                         -0.072
                                                                         -0.018
Connecticut
                                                                         -0.041
                                                                         -0.043
                                                                         -0.044
                                                                         -0.044
                                                                         -0.044
                                                                         -0.044
                                                                         -0.044
                                                                         -0.044
                                                                         -0.024
Delaware
                                                                         -0.024
                                                                         -0.024
                                                                         -0.027
                                                                         -0.027
                                                                         -0.027
                                                                         -0.027
                                                                         -0.028
                                                                         -0.028
                                                                         -0.020
District of Columbia
                                                                         -0.033
                                                                         -0.033
                                                                         -0.033
                                                                         -0.033
                                                                         -0.033
                                                                         -0.033
                                                                         -0.033
                                                                         -0.033
                                                                         -0.033
Florida
                                                                          0.016
                                                                          0.016
                                                                          0.004
                                                                          0.004
                                                                          0.004
                                                                          0.004
                                                                         -0.002
                                                                         -0.008
                                                                         -0.025
Georgia
                                                                         -0.010
                                                                         -0.010
                                                                         -0.010
                                                                         -0.010
                                                                         -0.010
                                                                         -0.010
                                                                         -0.011
                                                                         -0.011
                                                                         -0.023
Idaho
                                                                         -0.013
                                                                         -0.013
                                                                         -0.013
                                                                         -0.013
                                                                         -0.013
                                                                         -0.013
                                                                         -0.013
                                                                         -0.013
                                                                         -0.035
Illinois
                                                                         -0.042
                                                                         -0.042
                                                                         -0.043
                                                                         -0.043
                                                                         -0.044
                                                                         -0.044
                                                                         -0.052
                                                                         -0.055
                                                                         -0.020
Indiana
                                                                         -0.081
                                                                         -0.083
                                                                         -0.114
                                                                         -0.114
                                                                         -0.114
                                                                         -0.114
                                                                         -0.122
                                                                         -0.128
                                                                         -0.022
Iowa
                                                                         -0.095
                                                                         -0.097
                                                                         -0.112
                                                                         -0.113
                                                                         -0.112
                                                                         -0.113
                                                                         -0.145
                                                                         -0.194
                                                                         -0.028
Kansas
                                                                         -0.059
                                                                         -0.059
                                                                         -0.068
                                                                         -0.068
                                                                         -0.069
                                                                         -0.069
                                                                         -0.076
                                                                         -0.093
                                                                         -0.024
Kentucky
                                                                          0.118
                                                                          0.118
                                                                          0.113
                                                                          0.089
                                                                          0.112
                                                                          0.088
                                                                          0.055
                                                                          0.006
                                                                         -0.023
Louisiana
                                                                          0.079
                                                                          0.078
                                                                          0.078
                                                                          0.078
                                                                          0.072
                                                                          0.072
                                                                          0.068
                                                                          0.052
                                                                         -0.012
Maine
                                                                          0.025
                                                                          0.025
                                                                          0.025
                                                                          0.025
                                                                          0.025
                                                                          0.025
                                                                          0.025
                                                                          0.025
                                                                         -0.023
Maryland
                                                                         -0.042
                                                                         -0.042
                                                                         -0.042
                                                                         -0.042
                                                                         -0.042
                                                                         -0.042
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.022
Massachusetts
                                                                         -0.014
                                                                         -0.014
                                                                         -0.014
                                                                         -0.014
                                                                         -0.014
                                                                         -0.014
                                                                         -0.015
                                                                         -0.015
                                                                         -0.018
Michigan
                                                                         -0.036
                                                                         -0.044
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.062
                                                                         -0.077
                                                                         -0.015
Minnesota
                                                                         -0.053
                                                                         -0.055
                                                                         -0.060
                                                                         -0.060
                                                                         -0.060
                                                                         -0.060
                                                                         -0.078
                                                                         -0.086
                                                                         -0.031
Mississippi
                                                                          0.169
                                                                          0.169
                                                                          0.169
                                                                          0.159
                                                                          0.169
                                                                          0.159
                                                                          0.140
                                                                          0.121
                                                                         -0.020
Missouri
                                                                         -0.063
                                                                         -0.063
                                                                         -0.077
                                                                         -0.077
                                                                         -0.078
                                                                         -0.078
                                                                         -0.082
                                                                         -0.101
                                                                         -0.029
Montana
                                                                         -0.022
                                                                         -0.022
                                                                         -0.022
                                                                         -0.022
                                                                         -0.022
                                                                         -0.022
                                                                         -0.050
                                                                         -0.081
                                                                         -0.028
Nebraska
                                                                         -0.060
                                                                         -0.062
                                                                         -0.061
                                                                         -0.061
                                                                         -0.061
                                                                         -0.061
                                                                         -0.092
                                                                         -0.132
                                                                         -0.026
Nevada
                                                                          0.015
                                                                         -0.014
                                                                         -0.032
                                                                         -0.032
                                                                         -0.032
                                                                         -0.032
                                                                         -0.040
                                                                         -0.052
                                                                         -0.034
New Hampshire
                                                                          0.036
                                                                          0.036
                                                                          0.025
                                                                          0.025
                                                                          0.025
                                                                          0.025
                                                                          0.025
                                                                          0.025
                                                                         -0.025
New Jersey
                                                                         -0.028
                                                                         -0.028
                                                                         -0.030
                                                                         -0.030
                                                                         -0.030
                                                                         -0.030
                                                                         -0.030
                                                                         -0.030
                                                                         -0.022
New Mexico
                                                                         -0.067
                                                                         -0.068
                                                                         -0.069
                                                                         -0.069
                                                                         -0.069
                                                                         -0.069
                                                                         -0.077
                                                                         -0.077
                                                                         -0.022
New York
                                                                         -0.043
                                                                         -0.043
                                                                         -0.044
                                                                         -0.044
                                                                         -0.044
                                                                         -0.044
                                                                         -0.045
                                                                         -0.045
                                                                         -0.023
North Carolina
                                                                         -0.027
                                                                         -0.028
                                                                         -0.088
                                                                         -0.088
                                                                         -0.090
                                                                         -0.090
                                                                         -0.123
                                                                         -0.166
                                                                         -0.031
North Dakota
                                                                         -0.064
                                                                         -0.064
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.079
                                                                         -0.079
                                                                         -0.105
                                                                         -0.213
                                                                         -0.020
Ohio
                                                                         -0.036
                                                                         -0.040
                                                                         -0.099
                                                                         -0.099
                                                                         -0.099
                                                                         -0.099
                                                                         -0.100
                                                                         -0.104
                                                                         -0.022
Oklahoma
                                                                         -0.020
                                                                         -0.021
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.031
                                                                         -0.037
                                                                         -0.016
Oregon
                                                                         -0.021
                                                                         -0.021
                                                                         -0.021
                                                                         -0.021
                                                                         -0.021
                                                                         -0.021
                                                                         -0.021
                                                                         -0.021
                                                                         -0.033
Pennsylvania
                                                                         -0.010
                                                                         -0.011
                                                                         -0.041
                                                                         -0.041
                                                                         -0.041
                                                                         -0.041
                                                                         -0.045
                                                                         -0.046
                                                                         -0.022
Rhode Island
                                                                         -0.045
                                                                         -0.045
                                                                         -0.045
                                                                         -0.045
                                                                         -0.045
                                                                         -0.045
                                                                         -0.045
                                                                         -0.045
                                                                         -0.027
South Carolina
                                                                         -0.043
                                                                         -0.043
                                                                         -0.067
                                                                         -0.067
                                                                         -0.067
                                                                         -0.067
                                                                         -0.067
                                                                         -0.067
                                                                         -0.024
South Dakota
                                                                         -0.035
                                                                         -0.035
                                                                         -0.036
                                                                         -0.036
                                                                         -0.036
                                                                         -0.036
                                                                         -0.035
                                                                         -0.035
                                                                         -0.045
Tennessee
                                                                         -0.003
                                                                         -0.003
                                                                         -0.006
                                                                         -0.006
                                                                         -0.006
                                                                         -0.006
                                                                         -0.008
                                                                         -0.008
                                                                         -0.025
Texas
                                                                         -0.011
                                                                         -0.014
                                                                         -0.018
                                                                         -0.018
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                         -0.036
                                                                         -0.055
                                                                         -0.017
Utah
                                                                         -0.008
                                                                         -0.060
                                                                         -0.061
                                                                         -0.061
                                                                         -0.061
                                                                         -0.061
                                                                         -0.054
                                                                         -0.107
                                                                         -0.022
Vermont
                                                                         -0.024
                                                                         -0.024
                                                                         -0.024
                                                                         -0.024
                                                                         -0.024
                                                                         -0.024
                                                                         -0.024
                                                                         -0.024
                                                                         -0.035
Virginia
                                                                          0.018
                                                                          0.018
                                                                          0.017
                                                                          0.013
                                                                          0.016
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.011
                                                                          0.004
                                                                         -0.022
Washington
                                                                          0.008
                                                                          0.008
                                                                          0.008
                                                                          0.008
                                                                          0.008
                                                                          0.008
                                                                          0.008
                                                                         -0.006
                                                                         -0.033
West Virginia
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.052
                                                                         -0.076
                                                                         -0.085
                                                                         -0.083
                                                                         -0.091
                                                                         -0.092
                                                                         -0.134
                                                                         -0.007
Wisconsin
                                                                         -0.033
                                                                         -0.035
                                                                         -0.038
                                                                         -0.038
                                                                         -0.038
                                                                         -0.038
                                                                         -0.039
                                                                         -0.039
                                                                         -0.027
Wyoming
                                                                          0.055
                                                                          0.055
                                                                          0.052
                                                                          0.034
                                                                          0.052
                                                                          0.034
                                                                         -0.027
                                                                         -0.100
                                                                         -0.020
Tribal Data
                                                                          0.082
                                                                          0.082
                                                                          0.082
                                                                          0.082
                                                                          0.082
                                                                          0.082
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.186
                                                                          0.001


Table D-10.  2025 Fractional Difference in Emissions Relative to 2023 Air Quality Modeling Base Case for Each State.
State
Eng Baseline
$500/ton
Optimize SCR
Optimize SCR + LNB
Optimize SNCR+ SCR
Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
Straight Line Interpolation
Alabama
                                                                         -0.015
                                                                         -0.015
                                                                         -0.015
                                                                         -0.016
                                                                         -0.015
                                                                         -0.016
                                                                         -0.016
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                         -0.043
Arizona
                                                                         -0.055
                                                                         -0.062
                                                                         -0.072
                                                                         -0.072
                                                                         -0.072
                                                                         -0.072
                                                                         -0.068
                                                                         -0.088
                                                                         -0.071
Arkansas
                                                                         -0.066
                                                                         -0.067
                                                                         -0.066
                                                                         -0.066
                                                                         -0.066
                                                                         -0.066
                                                                         -0.111
                                                                         -0.153
                                                                         -0.055
California
                                                                         -0.022
                                                                         -0.022
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.032
Colorado
                                                                         -0.055
                                                                         -0.055
                                                                         -0.055
                                                                         -0.055
                                                                         -0.055
                                                                         -0.055
                                                                         -0.069
                                                                         -0.089
                                                                         -0.037
Connecticut
                                                                         -0.064
                                                                         -0.066
                                                                         -0.067
                                                                         -0.067
                                                                         -0.067
                                                                         -0.067
                                                                         -0.067
                                                                         -0.067
                                                                         -0.047
Delaware
                                                                         -0.046
                                                                         -0.046
                                                                         -0.048
                                                                         -0.048
                                                                         -0.048
                                                                         -0.048
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.041
District of Columbia
                                                                         -0.066
                                                                         -0.066
                                                                         -0.066
                                                                         -0.066
                                                                         -0.066
                                                                         -0.066
                                                                         -0.066
                                                                         -0.066
                                                                         -0.065
Florida
                                                                         -0.013
                                                                         -0.013
                                                                         -0.025
                                                                         -0.025
                                                                         -0.026
                                                                         -0.026
                                                                         -0.031
                                                                         -0.037
                                                                         -0.050
Georgia
                                                                         -0.036
                                                                         -0.036
                                                                         -0.036
                                                                         -0.036
                                                                         -0.036
                                                                         -0.036
                                                                         -0.037
                                                                         -0.037
                                                                         -0.047
Idaho
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.071
Illinois
                                                                         -0.063
                                                                         -0.063
                                                                         -0.064
                                                                         -0.064
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.073
                                                                         -0.076
                                                                         -0.041
Indiana
                                                                         -0.104
                                                                         -0.106
                                                                         -0.136
                                                                         -0.136
                                                                         -0.136
                                                                         -0.136
                                                                         -0.144
                                                                         -0.150
                                                                         -0.043
Iowa
                                                                         -0.122
                                                                         -0.125
                                                                         -0.140
                                                                         -0.141
                                                                         -0.140
                                                                         -0.141
                                                                         -0.172
                                                                         -0.221
                                                                         -0.057
Kansas
                                                                         -0.081
                                                                         -0.082
                                                                         -0.091
                                                                         -0.091
                                                                         -0.092
                                                                         -0.092
                                                                         -0.099
                                                                         -0.116
                                                                         -0.047
Kentucky
                                                                          0.075
                                                                          0.075
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.052
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.052
                                                                          0.022
                                                                         -0.022
                                                                         -0.046
Louisiana
                                                                          0.067
                                                                          0.066
                                                                          0.066
                                                                          0.066
                                                                          0.060
                                                                          0.060
                                                                          0.056
                                                                          0.039
                                                                         -0.025
Maine
                                                                          0.002
                                                                          0.002
                                                                          0.002
                                                                          0.002
                                                                          0.002
                                                                          0.002
                                                                          0.002
                                                                          0.002
                                                                         -0.046
Maryland
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.072
                                                                         -0.072
                                                                         -0.044
Massachusetts
                                                                         -0.032
                                                                         -0.032
                                                                         -0.032
                                                                         -0.032
                                                                         -0.033
                                                                         -0.033
                                                                         -0.033
                                                                         -0.033
                                                                         -0.037
Michigan
                                                                         -0.053
                                                                         -0.062
                                                                         -0.066
                                                                         -0.066
                                                                         -0.066
                                                                         -0.066
                                                                         -0.079
                                                                         -0.094
                                                                         -0.030
Minnesota
                                                                         -0.077
                                                                         -0.079
                                                                         -0.085
                                                                         -0.085
                                                                         -0.085
                                                                         -0.085
                                                                         -0.103
                                                                         -0.110
                                                                         -0.063
Mississippi
                                                                          0.147
                                                                          0.147
                                                                          0.147
                                                                          0.137
                                                                          0.147
                                                                          0.137
                                                                          0.118
                                                                          0.099
                                                                         -0.041
Missouri
                                                                         -0.091
                                                                         -0.092
                                                                         -0.106
                                                                         -0.106
                                                                         -0.107
                                                                         -0.107
                                                                         -0.110
                                                                         -0.130
                                                                         -0.058
Montana
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.049
                                                                         -0.077
                                                                         -0.108
                                                                         -0.056
Nebraska
                                                                         -0.088
                                                                         -0.090
                                                                         -0.089
                                                                         -0.089
                                                                         -0.089
                                                                         -0.089
                                                                         -0.120
                                                                         -0.160
                                                                         -0.052
Nevada
                                                                         -0.017
                                                                         -0.046
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.072
                                                                         -0.085
                                                                         -0.068
New Hampshire
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.000
                                                                          0.000
                                                                          0.000
                                                                          0.000
                                                                          0.000
                                                                          0.000
                                                                         -0.049
New Jersey
                                                                         -0.051
                                                                         -0.051
                                                                         -0.054
                                                                         -0.054
                                                                         -0.054
                                                                         -0.054
                                                                         -0.054
                                                                         -0.054
                                                                         -0.044
New Mexico
                                                                         -0.088
                                                                         -0.089
                                                                         -0.090
                                                                         -0.090
                                                                         -0.090
                                                                         -0.090
                                                                         -0.098
                                                                         -0.098
                                                                         -0.044
New York
                                                                         -0.064
                                                                         -0.064
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.066
                                                                         -0.066
                                                                         -0.045
North Carolina
                                                                         -0.063
                                                                         -0.064
                                                                         -0.124
                                                                         -0.124
                                                                         -0.125
                                                                         -0.125
                                                                         -0.158
                                                                         -0.191
                                                                         -0.062
North Dakota
                                                                         -0.083
                                                                         -0.084
                                                                         -0.084
                                                                         -0.084
                                                                         -0.098
                                                                         -0.098
                                                                         -0.124
                                                                         -0.232
                                                                         -0.040
Ohio
                                                                         -0.059
                                                                         -0.063
                                                                         -0.121
                                                                         -0.121
                                                                         -0.121
                                                                         -0.121
                                                                         -0.123
                                                                         -0.127
                                                                         -0.044
Oklahoma
                                                                         -0.040
                                                                         -0.040
                                                                         -0.042
                                                                         -0.042
                                                                         -0.042
                                                                         -0.042
                                                                         -0.051
                                                                         -0.057
                                                                         -0.032
Oregon
                                                                         -0.054
                                                                         -0.054
                                                                         -0.054
                                                                         -0.054
                                                                         -0.054
                                                                         -0.054
                                                                         -0.054
                                                                         -0.054
                                                                         -0.066
Pennsylvania
                                                                         -0.028
                                                                         -0.028
                                                                         -0.059
                                                                         -0.059
                                                                         -0.059
                                                                         -0.059
                                                                         -0.063
                                                                         -0.064
                                                                         -0.043
Rhode Island
                                                                         -0.072
                                                                         -0.072
                                                                         -0.072
                                                                         -0.072
                                                                         -0.072
                                                                         -0.072
                                                                         -0.072
                                                                         -0.072
                                                                         -0.054
South Carolina
                                                                         -0.068
                                                                         -0.068
                                                                         -0.092
                                                                         -0.092
                                                                         -0.092
                                                                         -0.092
                                                                         -0.092
                                                                         -0.092
                                                                         -0.048
South Dakota
                                                                         -0.080
                                                                         -0.081
                                                                         -0.081
                                                                         -0.081
                                                                         -0.081
                                                                         -0.081
                                                                         -0.081
                                                                         -0.081
                                                                         -0.089
Tennessee
                                                                         -0.039
                                                                         -0.039
                                                                         -0.039
                                                                         -0.039
                                                                         -0.039
                                                                         -0.039
                                                                         -0.041
                                                                         -0.041
                                                                         -0.050
Texas
                                                                         -0.028
                                                                         -0.031
                                                                         -0.035
                                                                         -0.035
                                                                         -0.036
                                                                         -0.036
                                                                         -0.053
                                                                         -0.072
                                                                         -0.033
Utah
                                                                         -0.029
                                                                         -0.081
                                                                         -0.082
                                                                         -0.082
                                                                         -0.082
                                                                         -0.082
                                                                         -0.075
                                                                         -0.129
                                                                         -0.044
Vermont
                                                                         -0.059
                                                                         -0.059
                                                                         -0.059
                                                                         -0.059
                                                                         -0.059
                                                                         -0.059
                                                                         -0.059
                                                                         -0.059
                                                                         -0.070
Virginia
                                                                         -0.004
                                                                         -0.005
                                                                         -0.005
                                                                         -0.010
                                                                         -0.007
                                                                         -0.011
                                                                         -0.012
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                         -0.045
Washington
                                                                         -0.025
                                                                         -0.025
                                                                         -0.025
                                                                         -0.025
                                                                         -0.025
                                                                         -0.025
                                                                         -0.025
                                                                         -0.039
                                                                         -0.067
West Virginia
                                                                         -0.058
                                                                         -0.061
                                                                         -0.085
                                                                         -0.094
                                                                         -0.092
                                                                         -0.100
                                                                         -0.101
                                                                         -0.143
                                                                         -0.013
Wisconsin
                                                                         -0.067
                                                                         -0.069
                                                                         -0.072
                                                                         -0.072
                                                                         -0.072
                                                                         -0.072
                                                                         -0.073
                                                                         -0.073
                                                                         -0.054
Wyoming
                                                                          0.043
                                                                          0.043
                                                                          0.040
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.040
                                                                          0.022
                                                                         -0.038
                                                                         -0.112
                                                                         -0.040
Tribal Data
                                                                          0.084
                                                                          0.084
                                                                          0.084
                                                                          0.084
                                                                          0.084
                                                                          0.084
                                                                         -0.007
                                                                         -0.184
                                                                          0.001

Table D-11.  2023 Ozone Season Anthropogenic NOX Emissions Reductions (Tons) for non-EGUs and Fractional Difference in Emissions for the non-EGU Scenario Relative to the 2023 Air Quality Modeling Base Case for Each State.
                                     State
Non-EGU glass and cement, refined analysis, others unchanged, below $2,000/ton (Tons)
Fractional Difference EGU $1,800/ton +non-EGU tranche 1 glass & cement analyzed
Alabama
                                                                           -   
                                                                          0.035
Arizona
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.009
Arkansas
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.018
California
                                                                           -   
                                                                          0.005
Colorado
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.009
Connecticut
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.021
Delaware
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.006
District of Columbia
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.001
Florida
                                                                           -   
                                                                          0.028
Georgia
                                                                           -   
                                                                          0.016
Idaho
                                                                           -   
                                                                          0.022
Illinois
                                                                           464 
                                                                         -0.027
Indiana
                                                                           666 
                                                                         -0.063
Iowa
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.086
Kansas
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.046
Kentucky
                                                                           -   
                                                                          0.111
Louisiana
                                                                           -   
                                                                          0.085
Maine
                                                                           -   
                                                                          0.048
Maryland
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.023
Massachusetts
                                                                           -   
                                                                          0.004
Michigan
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.029
Minnesota
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.036
Mississippi
                                                                           -   
                                                                          0.182
Missouri
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.050
Montana
                                                                           -   
                                                                          0.005
Nebraska
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.028
Nevada
                                                                           -   
                                                                          0.000
New Hampshire
                                                                           -   
                                                                          0.049
New Jersey
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.007
New Mexico
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.048
New York
                                                                           238 
                                                                         -0.025
North Carolina
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.067
North Dakota
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.060
Ohio
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.076
Oklahoma
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.003
Oregon
                                                                           -   
                                                                          0.012
Pennsylvania
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.023
Rhode Island
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.019
South Carolina
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.041
South Dakota
                                                                           -   
                                                                          0.010
Tennessee
                                                                           -   
                                                                          0.019
Texas
                                                                           -   
                                                                          0.002
Utah
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.039
Vermont
                                                                           -   
                                                                          0.010
Virginia
                                                                           138 
                                                                          0.040
Washington
                                                                           -   
                                                                          0.042
West Virginia
                                                                           -   
                                                                         -0.082
Wisconsin
                                                                           -   
                                                                          0.002
Wyoming
                                                                           -   
                                                                          0.045
Tribal Data
                                                                           -   
                                                                          0.081


      

3. Description of the analytic results.
      
      
      For each year 2021-2025, EPA used the ozone AQAT to estimate improvements in downwind air quality at base case levels, at $1,800 per ton emission budget levels, and at higher dollar per ton emission budget levels.  At each cost threshold level, using AQAT, EPA examined the average and maximum design values for each of the receptors. EPA evaluated the degree of change in ppb and whether it decreased average or maximum values to below 76 ppb (at which point their nonattainment and maintenance issues, respectively, would be considered resolved).  EPA also examined each state's air quality contributions at each emission budget level, assessing whether a state maintained at least one linkage (i.e., greater than or equal to 1% (.75 ppb) to a receptor that was estimated to remain in nonattainment and/or maintenance.  EPA examined the engineering base case, $1,600/ton, $1,800/ton, $5,800/ton, and $9,600/ton.  EPA also created "straight line" estimates comparable to those used at Steps 1 and 2.  The preamble explains at section VI.D how EPA considered the results of the air quality analyses described in this TSD to determine the appropriate emission levels for eliminating significant contribution to nonattainment and interference with maintenance.  
      For each year, the average and maximum design values (in ppb) estimated using the assessment tool for each identified receptor for each cost threshold level have been rounded to hundredths of a ppb and can be found in Tables D-12 through D-21.  There are four monitors, three in Connecticut and one in Texas.  Scenarios that are not viable, for technical or policy reasons, have been grayed out in these tables.
      In 2021, we observe that the Stratford monitor 090013007 in Fairfield County, Connecticut, switches to maintenance at the $1,600/ton level (where SCRs are optimized).  In other words, its average design value drops below 76 ppb (Table D-12), while its maximum design value stays above 76 ppb (Table D-13).  The Madison monitor 090099002 in New Haven County, Connecticut, has both its average and maximum design values below 76 at all cost levels, including in the Engineering Base.  It was estimated to have a maintenance issue in the 2021 Base Case interpolated from the air quality modeling and used at Steps 1 and 2 (with its maximum design value higher than 76 ppb).
      In 2024, there is only one receptor remaining (the Westport monitor 090019003 in Fairfield County, Connecticut).  This receptor switches from nonattainment to maintenance at $1,600/ton (Tables D-18 and D-19).
      EPA also assessed changes in air quality for the non-EGU scenarios for 2023, 2024, and 2025.  In these cases, we included EGU emission reductions at the $1,800/ton cost threshold level.  The results are shown in Table D-22.
      In the assessment of air quality using the calibrated assessment tool, we are able to estimate the change in the air quality contributions of each upwind state to each receptor (see the description of the state and receptor-specific contributions in section D.2.c.(2)) in order to determine whether any state's contribution is below the 1 percent threshold used in step 2 of the 4-Step Good Neighbor Framework to identify "linked" upwind states.  For this over-control assessment, we compared each state's adjusted ozone concentration against the 1% air quality threshold at each of the cost threshold levels up to $9,600/ton at each remaining receptor, using AQAT.  To see static air quality contributions and design value estimates for the four receptors of interest for each of the years for each of the cost levels, see the individual worksheets labeled: $9600; $5800; $3900; $1600 w CC & non-EGU; $1600 w CC; $1600 wo CC; $500; straightline_base; and eng_base. For interactive worksheets, refer to the "scenario_202X" worksheets after setting the desired scenario in the "summaryDVs" worksheet.  Then, adjust cells J27 and J28 to match the desired scenario of interest.  The numbering for the various scenarios is shown in Table D-23.  For a cost threshold run, cell J27 would be a value of 1 through 8, while cell J28 should be fixed with a value of 1.  For all linked states, in the cost threshold analysis, we did not see any instances where a state's contributions dropped below 1% of the NAAQS for all its linkages to remaining downwind receptors.  That is, if a state was linked to a receptor in 2021 in the base case, and that receptor remained either nonattainment or maintenance in other years or at other cost thresholds, the state remained linked with a contribution greater than or equal to 1% of the NAAQS. This is not a surprising result because, for a linkage to be resolved by emission reductions of just a few percent, the original base contribution would need to be within a few percent of the threshold.  As a hypothetical example, if the state is making a 6% emission reduction in its overall anthropogenic ozone season NOX emissions, and the calibration factor was 0.5, its original base case maximum contribution to a remaining unresolved nonattainment and/or maintenance receptor would need to be just under 1.03% of the NAAQS or 0.77 ppb, to drop below the 0.75 ppb linkage threshold.
       Lastly, once the EGU budgets for the rule were established (based on the results of the multi-factor test), it was possible to estimate air quality concentrations in the "control scenario" at each downwind receptor for each year using the ozone AQAT (Table D-24).  Here, we apply a scenario where all states (regardless of whether they are linked to a particular receptor or to a different receptor in the geography) have the same cost threshold applied as do the "linked" states.  We observe very little effect of this on air quality at the receptor and in no case are the changes large enough to shift the status of a receptor from either nonattainment to maintenance or from maintenance to attainment.  This is not surprising because the contributions to each receptor from these non-linked states are already below the 1% threshold.
      
Table D-12. 2021 Average Ozone DVs (ppb) for NOX Emissions Cost Threshold Levels ($/ton) Assessed Using the Ozone AQAT for All Receptors.
                         Monitor Identification Number
                                     State
                                    County
                           CAMx 2023 Base Case (ppb)
              Assessment Tool Average Ozone Design Values (ppb).
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                 Straight line
                             Engineering Baseline
                                   $500/ton
                                 Optimize SCR
                              Optimize SCR + LNB 
                              Optimize SNCR+ SCR
                           Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB 
                      New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                      New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                                                                       90013007
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           74.3
                                                                          76.50
                                                                          76.13
                                                                          76.11
                                                                          75.95
                                                                          75.93
                                                                          75.94
                                                                          75.93
                                                                          75.89
                                                                          75.83
                                                                       90019003
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           76.9
                                                                          78.56
                                                                          78.27
                                                                          78.26
                                                                          78.13
                                                                          78.12
                                                                          78.13
                                                                          78.12
                                                                          78.08
                                                                          78.03
                                                                       90099002
CT
New Haven
                                                                           71.7
                                                                          73.98
                                                                          73.59
                                                                          73.57
                                                                          73.40
                                                                          73.38
                                                                          73.39
                                                                          73.37
                                                                          73.32
                                                                          73.25
                                                                      482010024
TX
Harris
                                                                           74.0
                                                                          75.51
                                                                          75.62
                                                                          75.58
                                                                          75.51
                                                                          75.51
                                                                          75.50
                                                                          75.50
                                                                          75.25
                                                                          74.95
Note: Scenarios that are not viable, for technical or policy reasons, have been grayed out

Table D-13. 2021 Maximum Ozone DVs (ppb) for NOX Emissions Cost Threshold Levels ($/ton) Assessed Using the Ozone AQAT for All Receptors.
                         Monitor Identification Number
                                     State
                                    County
                           CAMx 2023 Base Case (ppb)
              Assessment Tool Maximum Ozone Design Values (ppb).
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                 Straight line
                             Engineering Baseline
                                   $500/ton
                                 Optimize SCR
                              Optimize SCR + LNB 
                              Optimize SNCR+ SCR
                           Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB 
                      New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                      New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                                                                       90013007
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           75.2
                                                                          77.43
                                                                          77.05
                                                                          77.03
                                                                          76.87
                                                                          76.85
                                                                          76.86
                                                                          76.85
                                                                          76.81
                                                                          76.75
                                                                       90019003
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           77.2
                                                                          78.86
                                                                          78.58
                                                                          78.57
                                                                          78.44
                                                                          78.43
                                                                          78.43
                                                                          78.42
                                                                          78.39
                                                                          78.34
                                                                       90099002
CT
New Haven
                                                                           73.8
                                                                          76.15
                                                                          75.74
                                                                          75.72
                                                                          75.54
                                                                          75.53
                                                                          75.54
                                                                          75.52
                                                                          75.47
                                                                          75.39
                                                                      482010024
TX
Harris
                                                                           75.6
                                                                          77.15
                                                                          77.25
                                                                          77.21
                                                                          77.15
                                                                          77.15
                                                                          77.13
                                                                          77.13
                                                                          76.88
                                                                          76.57

Table D-14. 2022 Average Ozone DVs (ppb) for NOX Emissions Cost Threshold Levels ($/ton) Assessed Using the Ozone AQAT for All Receptors.
                         Monitor Identification Number
                                     State
                                    County
                           CAMx 2023 Base Case (ppb)
              Assessment Tool Average Ozone Design Values (ppb).
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                 Straight line
                             Engineering Baseline
                                   $500/ton
                                 Optimize SCR
                              Optimize SCR + LNB 
                              Optimize SNCR+ SCR
                           Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB 
                      New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                      New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                                                                       90013007
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           74.3
                                                                          75.40
                                                                          75.16
                                                                          75.14
                                                                          74.98
                                                                          74.97
                                                                          74.97
                                                                          74.96
                                                                          74.92
                                                                          74.87
                                                                       90019003
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           76.9
                                                                          77.73
                                                                          77.55
                                                                          77.54
                                                                          77.41
                                                                          77.39
                                                                          77.40
                                                                          77.39
                                                                          77.36
                                                                          77.31
                                                                       90099002
CT
New Haven
                                                                           71.7
                                                                          72.84
                                                                          72.58
                                                                          72.56
                                                                          72.39
                                                                          72.37
                                                                          72.38
                                                                          72.37
                                                                          72.32
                                                                          72.25
                                                                      482010024
TX
Harris
                                                                           74.0
                                                                          74.76
                                                                          74.98
                                                                          74.94
                                                                          74.88
                                                                          74.88
                                                                          74.87
                                                                          74.87
                                                                          74.61
                                                                          74.32

Table D-15. 2022 Maximum Ozone DVs (ppb) for NOX Emissions Cost Threshold Levels ($/ton) Assessed Using the Ozone AQAT for All Receptors.
                         Monitor Identification Number
                                     State
                                    County
                           CAMx 2023 Base Case (ppb)
              Assessment Tool Maximum Ozone Design Values (ppb).
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                 Straight line
                             Engineering Baseline
                                   $500/ton
                                 Optimize SCR
                              Optimize SCR + LNB 
                              Optimize SNCR+ SCR
                           Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB 
                      New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                      New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                                                                       90013007
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           75.2
                                                                          76.31
                                                                          76.07
                                                                          76.05
                                                                          75.89
                                                                          75.87
                                                                          75.88
                                                                          75.87
                                                                          75.83
                                                                          75.77
                                                                       90019003
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           77.2
                                                                          78.03
                                                                          77.85
                                                                          77.84
                                                                          77.71
                                                                          77.70
                                                                          77.70
                                                                          77.69
                                                                          77.66
                                                                          77.61
                                                                       90099002
CT
New Haven
                                                                           73.8
                                                                          74.98
                                                                          74.71
                                                                          74.69
                                                                          74.51
                                                                          74.49
                                                                          74.50
                                                                          74.49
                                                                          74.44
                                                                          74.36
                                                                      482010024
TX
Harris
                                                                           75.6
                                                                          76.37
                                                                          76.60
                                                                          76.56
                                                                          76.50
                                                                          76.50
                                                                          76.48
                                                                          76.48
                                                                          76.23
                                                                          75.92

Table D-16. 2023 Average Ozone DVs (ppb) for NOX Emissions Cost Threshold Levels ($/ton) Assessed Using the Ozone AQAT for All Receptors.
                         Monitor Identification Number
                                     State
                                    County
                           CAMx 2023 Base Case (ppb)
              Assessment Tool Average Ozone Design Values (ppb).
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                 Straight line
                             Engineering Baseline
                                   $500/ton
                                 Optimize SCR
                              Optimize SCR + LNB 
                              Optimize SNCR+ SCR
                           Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB 
                      New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                      New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                                                                       90013007
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           74.3
                                                                          74.30
                                                                          74.13
                                                                          74.11
                                                                          73.88
                                                                          73.86
                                                                          73.87
                                                                          73.86
                                                                          73.80
                                                                          73.72
                                                                       90019003
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           76.9
                                                                          76.90
                                                                          76.74
                                                                          76.72
                                                                          76.48
                                                                          76.46
                                                                          76.48
                                                                          76.46
                                                                          76.39
                                                                          76.31
                                                                       90099002
CT
New Haven
                                                                           71.7
                                                                          71.70
                                                                          71.51
                                                                          71.48
                                                                          71.24
                                                                          71.21
                                                                          71.23
                                                                          71.21
                                                                          71.14
                                                                          71.03
                                                                      482010024
TX
Harris
                                                                           74.0
                                                                          74.00
                                                                          74.55
                                                                          74.49
                                                                          74.38
                                                                          74.38
                                                                          74.36
                                                                          74.36
                                                                          73.95
                                                                          73.46

Table D-17. 2023 Maximum Ozone DVs (ppb) for NOX Emissions Cost Threshold Levels ($/ton) Assessed Using the Ozone AQAT for All Receptors.
                         Monitor Identification Number
                                     State
                                    County
                           CAMx 2023 Base Case (ppb)
              Assessment Tool Maximum Ozone Design Values (ppb).
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                 Straight line
                             Engineering Baseline
                                   $500/ton
                                 Optimize SCR
                              Optimize SCR + LNB 
                              Optimize SNCR+ SCR
                           Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB 
                      New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                      New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                                                                       90013007
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           75.2
                                                                          75.20
                                                                          75.03
                                                                          75.01
                                                                          74.78
                                                                          74.76
                                                                          74.77
                                                                          74.75
                                                                          74.69
                                                                          74.61
                                                                       90019003
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           77.2
                                                                          77.20
                                                                          77.04
                                                                          77.02
                                                                          76.78
                                                                          76.76
                                                                          76.78
                                                                          76.76
                                                                          76.69
                                                                          76.60
                                                                       90099002
CT
New Haven
                                                                           73.8
                                                                          73.80
                                                                          73.60
                                                                          73.58
                                                                          73.32
                                                                          73.30
                                                                          73.32
                                                                          73.29
                                                                          73.22
                                                                          73.12
                                                                      482010024
TX
Harris
                                                                           75.6
                                                                          75.60
                                                                          76.17
                                                                          76.10
                                                                          75.99
                                                                          75.99
                                                                          75.97
                                                                          75.97
                                                                          75.55
                                                                          75.05

Table D-18. 2024 Average Ozone DVs (ppb) for NOX Emissions Cost Threshold Levels ($/ton) Assessed Using the Ozone AQAT for All Receptors.
                         Monitor Identification Number
                                     State
                                    County
                           CAMx 2023 Base Case (ppb)
              Assessment Tool Average Ozone Design Values (ppb).
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                 Straight line
                             Engineering Baseline
                                   $500/ton
                                 Optimize SCR
                              Optimize SCR + LNB 
                              Optimize SNCR+ SCR
                           Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB 
                      New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                      New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                                                                       90013007
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           74.3
                                                                          73.76
                                                                          73.58
                                                                          73.56
                                                                          73.33
                                                                          73.31
                                                                          73.32
                                                                          73.30
                                                                          73.25
                                                                          73.17
                                                                       90019003
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           76.9
                                                                          76.38
                                                                          76.20
                                                                          76.18
                                                                          75.94
                                                                          75.92
                                                                          75.94
                                                                          75.92
                                                                          75.86
                                                                          75.78
                                                                       90099002
CT
New Haven
                                                                           71.7
                                                                          71.14
                                                                          70.93
                                                                          70.90
                                                                          70.66
                                                                          70.63
                                                                          70.65
                                                                          70.63
                                                                          70.56
                                                                          70.46
                                                                      482010024
TX
Harris
                                                                           74.0
                                                                          73.58
                                                                          74.05
                                                                          73.98
                                                                          73.88
                                                                          73.88
                                                                          73.86
                                                                          73.86
                                                                          73.47
                                                                          73.01

Table D-19. 2024 Maximum Ozone DVs (ppb) for NOX Emissions Cost Threshold Levels ($/ton) Assessed Using the Ozone AQAT for All Receptors.
                         Monitor Identification Number
                                     State
                                    County
                           CAMx 2023 Base Case (ppb)
              Assessment Tool Maximum Ozone Design Values (ppb).
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                 Straight line
                             Engineering Baseline
                                   $500/ton
                                 Optimize SCR
                              Optimize SCR + LNB 
                              Optimize SNCR+ SCR
                           Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB 
                      New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                      New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                                                                       90013007
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           75.2
                                                                          74.65
                                                                          74.47
                                                                          74.45
                                                                          74.22
                                                                          74.20
                                                                          74.21
                                                                          74.19
                                                                          74.14
                                                                          74.06
                                                                       90019003
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           77.2
                                                                          76.68
                                                                          76.50
                                                                          76.48
                                                                          76.24
                                                                          76.22
                                                                          76.23
                                                                          76.22
                                                                          76.15
                                                                          76.07
                                                                       90099002
CT
New Haven
                                                                           73.8
                                                                          73.22
                                                                          73.01
                                                                          72.98
                                                                          72.73
                                                                          72.70
                                                                          72.72
                                                                          72.70
                                                                          72.62
                                                                          72.53
                                                                      482010024
TX
Harris
                                                                           75.6
                                                                          75.17
                                                                          75.65
                                                                          75.58
                                                                          75.48
                                                                          75.48
                                                                          75.46
                                                                          75.46
                                                                          75.06
                                                                          74.59

Table D-20. 2025 Average Ozone DVs (ppb) for NOX Emissions Cost Threshold Levels ($/ton) Assessed Using the Ozone AQAT for All Receptors.
                         Monitor Identification Number
                                     State
                                    County
                           CAMx 2023 Base Case (ppb)
              Assessment Tool Average Ozone Design Values (ppb).
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                 Straight line
                             Engineering Baseline
                                   $500/ton
                                 Optimize SCR
                              Optimize SCR + LNB 
                              Optimize SNCR+ SCR
                           Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB 
                      New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                      New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                                                                       90013007
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           74.3
                                                                          73.22
                                                                          73.04
                                                                          73.02
                                                                          72.79
                                                                          72.77
                                                                          72.79
                                                                          72.77
                                                                          72.72
                                                                          72.64
                                                                       90019003
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           76.9
                                                                          75.86
                                                                          75.68
                                                                          75.66
                                                                          75.42
                                                                          75.41
                                                                          75.42
                                                                          75.40
                                                                          75.34
                                                                          75.26
                                                                       90099002
CT
New Haven
                                                                           71.7
                                                                          70.58
                                                                          70.37
                                                                          70.35
                                                                          70.10
                                                                          70.08
                                                                          70.09
                                                                          70.07
                                                                          70.00
                                                                          69.91
                                                                      482010024
TX
Harris
                                                                           74.0
                                                                          73.16
                                                                          73.62
                                                                          73.55
                                                                          73.45
                                                                          73.45
                                                                          73.43
                                                                          73.43
                                                                          73.04
                                                                          72.59

Table D-21. 2025 Maximum Ozone DVs (ppb) for NOX Emissions Cost Threshold Levels ($/ton) Assessed Using the Ozone AQAT for All Receptors.
                         Monitor Identification Number
                                     State
                                    County
                           CAMx 2023 Base Case (ppb)
              Assessment Tool Maximum Ozone Design Values (ppb).
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                 Straight line
                             Engineering Baseline
                                   $500/ton
                                 Optimize SCR
                              Optimize SCR + LNB 
                              Optimize SNCR+ SCR
                           Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB 
                      New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                      New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                                                                       90013007
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           75.2
                                                                          74.11
                                                                          73.93
                                                                          73.91
                                                                          73.67
                                                                          73.66
                                                                          73.67
                                                                          73.65
                                                                          73.60
                                                                          73.52
                                                                       90019003
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           77.2
                                                                          76.16
                                                                          75.98
                                                                          75.96
                                                                          75.72
                                                                          75.70
                                                                          75.71
                                                                          75.70
                                                                          75.64
                                                                          75.56
                                                                       90099002
CT
New Haven
                                                                           73.8
                                                                          72.65
                                                                          72.43
                                                                          72.41
                                                                          72.15
                                                                          72.13
                                                                          72.14
                                                                          72.12
                                                                          72.05
                                                                          71.96
                                                                      482010024
TX
Harris
                                                                           75.6
                                                                          74.74
                                                                          75.21
                                                                          75.14
                                                                          75.04
                                                                          75.04
                                                                          75.02
                                                                          75.02
                                                                          74.62
                                                                          74.16

Table D-22. Average and Maximum Ozone DVs (ppb) for non-EGU NOX Emissions Level* for Each Year Assessed.
                         Monitor Identification Number
                                     State
                                    County
                       CAMx 2023 Base Case Avg DV (ppb)
                          Average Design Value (ppb)
                          Maximum Design Value (ppb)
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                     2023
                                     2024
                                     2025
                                     2023
                                     2024
                                     2025
                                                                       90013007
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           74.3
                                                                          73.83
                                                                          73.28
                                                                          72.74
                                                                          74.72
                                                                          74.16
                                                                          73.62
                                                                       90019003
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           76.9
                                                                          76.43
                                                                          75.89
                                                                          75.37
                                                                          76.73
                                                                          76.19
                                                                          75.67
                                                                       90099002
CT
New Haven
                                                                           71.7
                                                                          71.17
                                                                          70.60
                                                                          70.04
                                                                          73.26
                                                                          72.66
                                                                          72.09
                                                                      482010024
TX
Harris
                                                                           74.0
                                                                          74.36
                                                                          73.86
                                                                          73.43
                                                                          75.97
                                                                          75.46
                                                                          75.02
*non-EGU AQAT air quality estimates include EGU emission reductions at the $1,600/ton level.

Table D-23. Description of the Various Scenarios Modeled in AQAT.
                                   Scenario
                             Cost Threshold Level
                               Short Description
                                  Description
                                       1
                                      $0
                                   Eng base
Baseline 202x OS NOx + engineering nonCEMs
                                       2
                                     $500
                                     $500
Baseline 202x OS NOx + engineering nonCEMs + $500/ton Generation Shifting
                                       3
                                    $1,600
                                $1,600 w/o LNB
Baseline 202x OS NOx + engineering nonCEMs + 0.08 SCR Cap + $1,600/ton Generation Shifting
                                       4
                                    $1,600
                                 $1,600 w LNB
Baseline 202x OS NOx + engineering nonCEMs + 0.08 SCR Cap + LNB + $1,600/ton Generation Shifting
                                       5
                                    $1,800
                                $1,800 w/o LNB
Baseline 202x OS NOx + engineering nonCEMs + 0.08 SCR Cap + SNCR Optimize + $1,600/ton Generation Shifting
                                       6
                                    $1,800
                                 $1,800 w LNB
Baseline 202x OS NOx + engineering nonCEMs + 0.08 SCR Cap + LNB + SNCR Optimize + $1,600/ton Generation Shifting
                                       7
                                    $5,800
                                    $5,800
Baseline 202x OS NOx + engineering nonCEMs + 0.08 SCR Cap + LNB + SNCR Optimize + SNCR Retrofit + $5,800/ton Generation Shifting
                                       8
                                    $9,600
                                    $9,600
Baseline 202x OS NOx + engineering nonCEMs + 0.08 SCR Cap + LNB + SNCR Optimize + SCR Retrofit + $9,600/ton Generation Shifting
                                       9
                                      NA
                               Straightline base
202X Straight line emissions interpolation (an appoximation of that used for Steps 1 and 2).  
                                      10
                                      NA
                                       
Analyzed...number of tons of non-EGU glass and cement, refined analysis.
                                      11
                              $1,800 up to $2,000
                          $1,800 w LNB & non-EGU
Baseline 202x OS NOx + engineering nonCEMs + 0.08 SCR Cap + LNB + SNCR Optimize + $1,600/ton Generation Shifting + non-EGU glass and cement, refined analysis, others unchanged, below $2,000 per ton.


Table D-24. Average and Maximum Ozone DVs (ppb) for the $1,800 Per Ton "Control Scenario" for each Year Assessed.
                         Monitor Identification Number
                                     State
                                    County
                           CAMx 2023 Base Case (ppb)
                          Average Design Value (ppb)
                          Maximum Design Value (ppb)
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                     2021
                                     2022
                                     2023
                                     2024
                                     2025
                                     2021
                                     2022
                                     2023
                                     2024
                                     2025
                                                                       90013007
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           74.3
                                                                          75.94
                                                                          74.96
                                                                          73.85
                                                                          73.30
                                                                          72.77
                                                                          76.86
                                                                          75.87
                                                                          74.75
                                                                          74.19
                                                                          73.65
                                                                       90019003
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           76.9
                                                                          78.13
                                                                          77.39
                                                                          76.45
                                                                          75.92
                                                                          75.40
                                                                          78.43
                                                                          77.69
                                                                          76.75
                                                                          76.21
                                                                          75.69
                                                                       90099002
CT
New Haven
                                                                           71.7
                                                                          73.39
                                                                          72.37
                                                                          71.20
                                                                          70.62
                                                                          70.07
                                                                          75.54
                                                                          74.48
                                                                          73.29
                                                                          72.69
                                                                          72.12
                                                                      482010024
TX
Harris
                                                                           74.0
                                                                          75.50
                                                                          74.86
                                                                          74.36
                                                                          73.86
                                                                          73.43
                                                                          77.13
                                                                          76.48
                                                                          75.97
                                                                          75.45
                                                                          75.02

4. Comparison between the air quality assessment tool estimates

      As described earlier, AQAT was calibrated using CAMx data from either 2016 or 2028.  Thus, it was possible to evaluate the estimates from the tool for a comparable scenario.  The average design values from AQAT for 2024 for the various scenarios are shown using the 2016-based calibration factor (Table D-25), as well as the differences between the values in Tables D-18 and D-25.  The differences are shown in Table D-26.  The AQAT values and the differences in the table have been rounded to a hundredth of a ppb.  For this set of scenarios, the differences are moderate, with a maximum value of 0.51 ppb.  
      There can be a small offset between the estimates (based on the impacts of the two different calibration factors).  Within a set of estimates, the differences are likely to be comparable.  That is, comparing two different scenarios in Table D-18 with the same two scenarios in Table D-25, produces similar changes in air quality.  For example, the difference between the engineering base and the $1,800 per ton level where SCR and SNCR are optimized and combustion controls are installed results in a difference of 0.29 ppb when the 2028 calibration factor is applied and 0.19 ppb when the 2016 calibration factor is applied.  The results of this demonstrate that, considering the time and resource constraints faced by the EPA, the AQAT provides reasonable estimates of air quality concentrations for each receptor, can provide reasonable inputs for the multi-factor assessment, and can serve as a method to test for linkages dropping below the threshold.


Table D-25. 2024 Average Ozone DVs (ppb) for NOX Emissions Cost Threshold Levels ($/ton) Assessed Using the Ozone AQAT for All Receptors Using the Calibration Factor from the 2016 Modeling.

                         Monitor Identification Number
                                     State
                                    County
                           CAMx 2023 Base Case (ppb)
              Assessment Tool Average Ozone Design Values (ppb).
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                 Straight line
                             Engineering Baseline
                                   $500/ton
                                 Optimize SCR
                              Optimize SCR + LNB 
                              Optimize SNCR+ SCR
                           Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB 
                      New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                      New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                                                                       90013007
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           74.3
                                                                          73.76
                                                                          73.79
                                                                          73.78
                                                                          73.61
                                                                          73.60
                                                                          73.61
                                                                          73.60
                                                                          73.56
                                                                          73.50
                                                                       90019003
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           76.9
                                                                          76.38
                                                                          76.52
                                                                          76.50
                                                                          76.38
                                                                          76.36
                                                                          76.37
                                                                          76.36
                                                                          76.33
                                                                          76.28
                                                                       90099002
CT
New Haven
                                                                           71.7
                                                                          71.14
                                                                          71.15
                                                                          71.14
                                                                          70.96
                                                                          70.95
                                                                          70.96
                                                                          70.94
                                                                          70.89
                                                                          70.82
                                                                      482010024
TX
Harris
                                                                           74.0
                                                                          73.58
                                                                          74.03
                                                                          73.99
                                                                          73.93
                                                                          73.93
                                                                          73.91
                                                                          73.91
                                                                          73.68
                                                                          73.40


Table D-26. 2024 Difference in Average Ozone DVs (ppb) for NOX Emissions Cost Threshold Levels ($/ton) Assessed Using the Ozone AQAT for All Receptors for the Estimates with the Two Different Calibration Factors.
      
                         Monitor Identification Number
                                     State
                                    County
                           CAMx 2023 Base Case (ppb)
              Assessment Tool Average Ozone Design Values (ppb).
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                 Straight line
                             Engineering Baseline
                                   $500/ton
                                 Optimize SCR
                              Optimize SCR + LNB 
                              Optimize SNCR+ SCR
                           Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB 
                      New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                      New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                                                                       90013007
                                                                             CT
                                                                      Fairfield
                                                                           74.3
                                                                           0.16
                                                                           0.21
                                                                           0.22
                                                                           0.28
                                                                           0.29
                                                                           0.29
                                                                           0.29
                                                                           0.31
                                                                           0.33
                                                                       90019003
                                                                             CT
                                                                      Fairfield
                                                                           76.9
                                                                           0.23
                                                                           0.31
                                                                           0.32
                                                                           0.43
                                                                           0.44
                                                                           0.43
                                                                           0.44
                                                                           0.47
                                                                           0.51
                                                                       90099002
                                                                             CT
                                                                      New Haven
                                                                           71.7
                                                                           0.16
                                                                           0.23
                                                                           0.23
                                                                           0.30
                                                                           0.31
                                                                           0.31
                                                                           0.31
                                                                           0.33
                                                                           0.36
                                                                      482010024
                                                                             TX
                                                                         Harris
                                                                           74.0
                                                                           0.16
                                                                          -0.02
                                                                           0.01
                                                                           0.05
                                                                           0.05
                                                                           0.06
                                                                           0.06
                                                                           0.21
                                                                           0.38

E. Observations on Cost and Air Quality Factors in 2024

      Section VI of the preamble discusses the cost and air quality factors in the multifactor test and reaches the conclusions about the requisite level of emissions control for each year.  The higher mitigation technology scenarios associated with post-combustion control installation were not considered in the 2021 multi-factor test as they pertain to technologies not possible to install at a regional scale until 2025.  However, for illustrative purposes, EPA examined their reduction potential and air quality impact of these controls starting in 2024. As described in sections C and D of this TSD, EPA quantified emissions from upwind states at various levels of uniform NOX control stringency, each represented by uniform control technology and corresponding NOX reduction and then evaluated the potential air quality consequences of these potential reductions. 
      EPA combines costs, EGU NOX reductions, corresponding improvements in downwind ozone concentrations, and other considerations for different control levels in its multi-factor test.  EPA examines whether any receptor shifts from nonattainment to maintenance or from maintenance to attainment.  In 2024, the last receptor (Westport) in Fairfield Connecticut shifts from nonattainment to maintenance at $1,600 per ton. This receptor is minimally above the 75.9 threshold in 2024 and is fully resolved by 2025.  No additional changes are observed at higher cost threshold levels in 2024 or 2025. EPA analysis of these more stringent scenarios in 2024 also results in a "knee-in-the-curve" graph (see preamble section VI for details about this figure for 2021).  Figure E-1 below illustrates the air quality improvement for the mitigation technologies up to $9,600 per ton for EGUs for 2024. In Figure E-1, the 2024 "knee" is also at a point where emission budgets reflect a control stringency with an estimated marginal cost of $1,600 and $1,800 per ton. The more stringent emission budget levels (e.g., emission budgets reflecting mitigation technologies that cost $5,800 per ton or greater) yield fewer additional emission reductions and fewer air quality improvements relative to the increase in control costs. These control measures also involve significant capital investment and the installation of new hardware at the EGU. For the reasons described in section VI of the preamble, the $1,800 per ton cost threshold is a reasonable stopping level for 2021 and 2022. Although EPA evaluated the potential reductions from post combustion controls, that technology did not qualify as an option for future years as EPA explains those controls are not possible on a regional scale until 2025, and EPA expects no remaining air quality problems for the 2008 ozone NAAQS standard in that year at the $1,800 per ton level.  
      
      Figure E-1. EGU Ozone Season NOX Reduction Potential in 11 Linked States and Corresponding Total Reductions in Downwind Ozone Concentration at the Westport Fairfield Connecticut Receptor for each Cost Threshold Level Evaluated in 2024.
                                       

 Assessment of the Effects of Ozone on Forest Health 

      Air pollution can impact the environment and affect ecological systems, leading to changes in the ecological community and influencing the diversity, health, and vigor of individual plant species. When ozone is present in the environment, it enters the plant through the stomata and can interfere with carbon gain (photosynthesis) and allocation of carbon within the plant, making fewer carbohydrates available for plant growth, reproduction, and/or yield (2020 PA, section 4.3.1 and 2013 ISA, p. 1-15).,  Ozone can impact a variety of commercial and ecologically important species throughout the United States.  These include forest tree and herbaceous species as well as crops.  Such effects at the plant scale can also be linked to an array of effects at larger spatial scales and higher levels of biological organization, causing impacts to ecosystem productivity, water cycling, ecosystem community composition and alteration of below-ground biogeochemical cycles (2020 PA, section 4.3.1 and 2013 ISA, p. 1-15)..  With the data sets available to the Agency, here, we focus on selected forest tree species. 
      Assessing the impact of ozone on forests in the United States involves understanding the risk to tree species from ozone concentrations in ambient air and accounting for the prevalence of those species within the forest.  Across several reviews of the ozone NAAQS and based on longstanding body of scientific evidence, EPA has evaluated concentration-response functions which relate ozone exposure to growth-related effects in order to consider the risk of ozone-related growth impacts on forest trees (2020 PA, section 4.3.3, 2013 ISA and 2020 ISA).  For this purpose, EPA has focused on cumulative, concentration-weighted indices of exposure, such as the W126-based cumulative exposure index (2020 PA, section 4.3.3.1.1, 2020 ISA, section ES.3).  Measured ozone concentrations in ambient air of the United States are used to calculate the W126-based index as the annual maximum 3-month sum of daytime hourly weighted ozone concentrations, averaged over 3 consecutive years. The sensitivity of different trees species varies about the growth impacts of ozone exposure. Based on well-studied datasets relating W126 index to reduced growth, exposure response functions have been developed for 11 tree species (2020 PA, section 4.3.3.1.2 and Figure 4-3 and 2013 ISA, section 9.6).  For these species, the impact from ozone exposure has been determined by exposing seedlings to different levels of ozone concentrations over one or more seasons (which have been summarized in terms of W126 index) and measuring reductions in growth (which are then summarized as "relative biomass loss"). The magnitude of ozone impact on a forest community will depend on the prevalence of different tree species of relatively more versus less sensitivity to ozone and the abundance in the community.
      The most common tree species in the eastern United States, where the benefits from this rule will be most pronounced, are black cherry (Prunus serotina), yellow or tulip-poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera), sugar maple (Acer saccharum), eastern white pine (Pinus strobus), Virginia Pine (Pinus virginiana), red maple (Acer rubrum), and quaking aspen (Populus trenuloides).  Since 2008, EPA has assessed the impact of ozone on these tree species within the eastern United States for the period from 2000 to 2018 as part of the Clean Air Market Division (CAMD) annual power sector programs progress report.  Over this time period ozone concentrations have improved substantially because of various emission reduction programs, such as NBP, CAIR, CSAPR, CSAPR Update, and other local and mobile source reductions such as Tier2 and Tier3 rules. Past EPA assessments have shown that the improvements in ozone are evident both for the regulatory metric, 3-year average of 4[th] highest 8-hr daily maximum ozone concentration, and for the W126 metric.     In forests where certain sensitive species dominate the forest community, the estimates of relative biomass loss from ozone have decreased substantially. However, for the period from 2017 - 2019, the eastern United States still has areas with up to 11.5% estimated relative biomass loss  for the seven tree species  -  black cherry, yellow poplar, sugar maple, eastern white pine, Virginia pine, red maple, and quaking aspen (Figure F-1).  
      Ozone levels are expected to continue to decrease through 2024 based on model projection of the impacts on ozone concentrations resulting from baseline "on the books" control programs as well as by emission reductions under this rule.  As ozone declines, estimates of relative biomass loss of these trees' species will also decline as they have from 2000 to 2019, indicating increased protection of forest ecosystems and resources.  Under this rule, ozone concentrations are expected to decline faster than without the rule (e.g., under the base case).  While EPA does not have the tools  to quantify the expected level of improvement at this time, based on the previous relationships between ozone design values and W126 determined as part of the review of the 2020 ozone NAAQS (2020 PA, section 4D.3.2.3 and Table 4D-12), W126 values are expected to improve as design values decrease.  As described in the preamble, the rule is expected to decrease design values by 0.17 ppb, on average, in 2021. The reductions from this rule are likely to provide further protection to natural forest ecosystems by reducing the potential for ozone-related impacts.   
          
                                          
Figure F-1: Estimated Black Cherry, Yellow Poplar, Sugar Maple, Eastern White Pine, Virginia Pine, Red Maple, and Quaking Aspen Biomass Loss due to Ozone Exposure for 2016-2018. See the annual progress report at https://www3.epa.gov/airmarkets/progress/reports/index.html  
 
  



Appendix A:  State Emission Budget Calculations and Engineering Analytics
See Excel workbook titled "Final Rule State Emission Budget Calculations and Engineering Analytics" on EPA's website and in the docket for this rulemaking


                                       


                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       

      

                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
 Appendix B:  Description of Excel Spreadsheet Data Files Used in the AQAT   
      EPA placed the Ozone_AQAT_Final.xlsx Excel workbook file in the Revised CSAPR Update docket that contains all the emission and CAMx air quality modeling inputs and resulting air quality estimates from the AQAT.  The following bullets describe the contents of various worksheets within the AQAT workbook:

State-level emissions
 "2021_EGU" through "2026_EGU" contain EGU emissions measurements and estimates for each state.  Various columns contain the 2016 and 2019 OS measured emissions, CSAPR Update Budgets, and then emissions for the engineering base along with each of the cost thresholds.
  "2016fh1" contains state and source-sector specific ozone-season NOX emission totals for the 2016 base case modeled in CAMx.
 "2023fh1" contains state and source-sector specific ozone-season NOX emission totals for the 2023 base case with EGU estimates from IPM modeled in CAMx.
 "2023fh1_eng" contains state and source-sector specific ozone-season NOX emission totals for the 2023 base case with EGU estimates from engineering analysis that could be used  in CAMx.
 "2028fh1" contains state and source-sector specific ozone-season NOX emission totals for the 2028 base case with EGU estimates from IPM modeled in CAMx.
 "AQM_EGU_emiss" has a breakdown of the point EGU emission inventory used in the air quality modeling, for the units with CEMs and those that don't (nonCEMs).
 "calib_emiss" has the total anthropogenic emissions by state for each of the base cases modeled in CAMx.  This worksheet also contains the fraction change for each of these scenarios relative to the 2023fh1 base case modeled in CAMx.
 "2021_emiss_total", "2022_emiss_total", "2023_emiss_total", "2024_emiss_total", "2025_emiss_total", "2026_emiss_total"  each of these worksheets reconstructs total anthropogenic emissions for the year, with various EGU emission inventories for different cost threshold (including the engineering base case).  The total anthropogenic emissions can be found for each state in columns BW through CE.  These totals are then compared to the 2023fh1 emission level (column CE) to make a fractional change in emissions in columns CF through CN.  Non-EGU emissions change and fractional change (inclusive of EGU changes at $1,800/ton) are found in columns CO and CP, respectively 


Air quality modeling design values and contributions from CAMx
 
 "2023_contribs" contains average and maximum design values as well as state by state contributions for the 2023fh1 base case modeled in CAMx.
 "2028fh1 DVs" contains average and maximum design values for each receptor in 2028 with EGU estimates from IPM.

Calibration factor creation and assessment
 "calib_2016" includes the calculation of the calibration factor based on the 2023 contributions, and percent change of 2016 emissions relative to 2023 emissions. The calibration factor can be found in column BM.  
 "calib_2028" includes the calculation of the calibration factor based on the 2023 contributions, and percent change of 2028 emissions relative to 2023 emissions. The calibration factor can be found in column BM. 
 "calib comp" includes a summary of the three calibration factors (one based on 2016and one based on 2028).

Air quality estimates
 "Summary DVs" contains the average and maximum design value estimates (rounded to two decimal places) for receptors that were nonattainment or maintenance in the 2021 base case interpolation modeling.  Values for each year (2021 through 2015), for each cost threshold are shown.  Grey or black filled cells are not considered viable scenarios for technical or policy reasons.  Each scenario has the cost threshold shown for that run the linked and unlinked states.  Adjustment to cells J27 and J28will result in interactive adjustment for the other worksheets and will adjust the average design values in column J and maximum design values in column X.
 "scenario_2021" through "scenario_2025" contains the average and maximum design value estimates (as well as the individual state's air quality contributions) for a particular scenario identified in cells G2 and G3.  The fractional emission changes for each of the linked and unlinked states are shown in rows 2 and 3.
 "scenario_2021_sens" and "scenario_2022_sens" contains the average and maximum design value estimates (as well as the individual state's air quality contributions) for a particular EGU scenario identified in cells G2 and G3 where the remainder of the emission inventory was created by interpolating between a projected 2021 inventory and the 2023 inventory.  The fractional emission changes for each of the linked and unlinked states are shown in rows 2 and 3.  The fractional emission changes for these scenarios are calculated in "2021_emiss_total_sens" and "2021_emiss_total_sens".
 "straightline_2021" through "straightline_2026" contains the average and maximum design value estimates (as well as the individual state's air quality contributions) for the emissions scenario that is a linear interpolation of the emissions between the 2016 base case and the 2023fh1 base case (or between the 2023fh1 base case and 2028fh1 base case).
  "control_2021" through "contol_2025" contains the average and maximum design value estimates (as well as the individual state's air quality contributions) for a particular scenario identified in cells G2 and G3.  States that are "linked" to any receptor in the geography are assigned the values in row 2 while nonlinked states are assigned the values in row 3.  Note that, as the "home" States, Texas and Connecticut are both assigned the "linked" State level of reductions.
 "scenario_2024 alt calibration" contains the average and maximum design value estimates (as well as the individual state's air quality contributions) for a particular scenario identified in cells G2 and G3.  The fractional emission changes for each of the linked and unlinked states are shown in rows 2 and 3.  This uses the calibration factor based on the 2016 air quality modeling, rather than the calibration factor based on the 2028 air quality modeling.
 The individual cost level worksheets labeled: "New_SCR"; "New_SNCR"; "SCR_SNCR_LNB"; "SCR_SNCR"; "SCR_LNB"; "SCR"; "$500"; "straightline_base"; and "eng_base" contain static air quality contributions and design value estimates for the four receptors of interest for each of the years.
 
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       

      

                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
Appendix C:  IPM Runs Used in Transport Rule Significant Contribution Analysis 
      Table C-1 lists IPM runs used in analysis for this rule.  The IPM runs can be found in the docket for this rulemaking under the IPM file name listed in square brackets in the table below.

Table Appendix C-1. IPM Runs Used in Transport Rule Significant Contribution Analysis
Run Name
[IPM File Name]
Description
Air Quality Modeling Base Case

EPA617_BC_75L
Model run used for the air quality modeling base case at steps 1 and 2, which includes the national Title IV SO2 cap-and-trade program; NOX SIP Call; the Cross-State Air Pollution trading programs, and settlements and state rules.  It also includes key fleet updates regarding new units, retired units, and control retrofits that were known by Fall of 2019.
Illustrative Base Case

EPA617_CURR_1g
Model run used as the base case for the Illustrative Analysis of cost threshold analyses. Based on the air quality modeling base case, but with projected retirements and retrofits in 2021 limited.
Illustrative Base Case with optimization technology + LNB upgrade

EPA617_CURR_5d
Imposes state-level generation constraints starting in 2021 for fossil-fuel fired units greater than 25 MW that is equal to Illustrative Base Case levels. Also assumes optimization of existing post-combustion controls and upgrade of combustion controls if mode 3<mode 1. 
Illustrative $1,600 per ton Cost Threshold


EPA617_CURR_3d
Same as the Illustrative Base Case with optimization technology + LNB upgrade, but with $1600/ OS NOx ton price signal applied in the ozone season.
Illustrative $3,900 per ton Cost Threshold


EPA617_CURR_4d       
Same as the Illustrative Base Case with optimization technology + LNB upgrade, but with $3900/OS NOx ton price signal applied in the ozone season.
Illustrative Base Case with optimization technology, LNB, + SNCR retrofit


EPA617_CURR_8d       
Same as Illustrative Base Case with optimization technology + LNB upgrade , but starting in 2025, for coal fired units greater than 100 MW and lacking a post combustion NOx control (SCR or SNCR), a 25% reduction to their ozone season NOx emission rate with a floor of 0.07 lbs/MMBtu is applied.
Illustrative $5,800 per ton Cost Threshold


EPA617_CURR_6d       
Same as Illustrative Base Case with optimization technology, LNB, + SNCR retrofit, but with $5,800 OS NOx ton price signal applied in the ozone-season 
Illustrative Base Case with optimization technology, LNB, + SCR retrofit


EPA617_CURR_9d       
Same as Illustrative Base Case with optimization technology + LNB upgrade, but starting in 2025, for coal fired units greater than 100 MW and lacking a post combustion NOx control (SCR or SNCR), a 90%reduction to their ozone season NOx emission rate with a floor of 0.07 lbs/MMBtu is applied.
Illustrative $9,600 per ton Cost Threshold


EPA617_CURR_7d       
Same as Illustrative Base Case with optimization technology, LNB, + SCR retrofit, but with $9,600/OS NOx ton OS ton price signal applied in the ozone-season. 
Illustrative $500 per ton Cost ThresholdEPA617_CURR_10d     
Same as Illustrative Base Case, but with $500/OS NOx ton OS ton price signal applied in the ozone-season. 
Illustrative More Stringent Policy Case

EPA617_CURR_13
Same as Illustrative Base Case, but with ozone season emissions budgets with variability limits applied for the 12 states reflecting $1600 per OS NOx ton through 2023 and $9600 per OS NOx ton for 2025 model run year, along with a regional cap equal to the sum of the 12 states' budgets for each year.
Illustrative LessStringent Policy Case

EPA617_CURR_12
Same as Illustrative Base Case, but with ozone season emissions budgets with variability limits applied for the 12 states reflecting $500 per OS NOx ton  starting in 2021, along with a regional cap equal to the sum of the 12 states' budgets for each year.
Proposed Policy Scenario

EPA617_CURR_14
Same as Illustrative Base Case, but with ozone season emissions budgets with variability limits applied for the 12 states reflecting $1600 per OS NOx ton  starting in 2021, along with a regional cap equal to the sum of the 12 states' budgets for each year.
Final Illustrative More Stringent Policy Case
EPA617_CURR_20e
Same as Illustrative Base Case, but with ozone season emissions budgets with variability limits applied for the 12 states reflecting optimization of existing controls and combustion control upgrade through 2023, and SCR retrofit in model run year 2025 and beyond, along with a regional cap equal to the sum of the 12 states' budgets for each year.
Final Illustrative LessStringent Policy Case
EPA617_CURR_21b

Same as Illustrative Base Case, but with ozone season emissions budgets with variability limits applied for the 12 states reflecting $500 per OS NOx ton  starting in 2021, along with a regional cap equal to the sum of the 12 states' budgets for each year.
Final Policy Scenario
EPA617_CURR_19d        
Same as Illustrative Base Case, but with ozone season emissions budgets with variability limits applied for the 12 states reflecting $1600 and $1800 per OS NOx ton  starting in 2021and 2022 respectively, along with a regional cap equal to the sum of the 12 states' budgets for each year.
Final Policy Sensitivity
EPA617_CURR_22
Same as Final Policy Scenario used for RIA, but with state emission budgets reflecting $1800 per ton stating in 2021
Base Case with Additional Nuclear Retirements  -  Sensitivity
EPA617_CURR_18b
Same as Illustrative Base Case, but with potential Dresden/Byron nuclear retirements included.
Final Policy Scenario Sensitivity  -  with additional nuclear retirements
EPA617_CURR_23
Same as Final Policy Scenario assumptions, but applied to the base case with additional nuclear retirements to reflect potential Dresden/Byron nuclear retirements.

Appendix D:  Ozone-Season NOX Emissions Limits for IPM Modeling

Table Appendix D-1. State and Regional Caps for IPM Final Case Analysis for the Final Rule

 
                                  Policy Case
                                       
                        Less Stringent Case ($500/ton)
                                       
                       More Stringent Case ($9,600/ton)
 
                       Assurance Level (121% of Budget)
                                       
                       Assurance Level (121% of Budget)
                                       
                       Assurance Level (121% of Budget)
 
                                                                          2021*
                                                                           2023
                                                                           2025
 
                                                                           2021
                                                                           2023
                                                                           2025
 
                                                                           2021
                                                                           2023
                                                                           2025
Illinois
                                                                         11,129
                                                                          9,896
                                                                          9,751
 
                                                                         11,311
                                                                         10,155
                                                                         10,009
 
                                                                         11,129
                                                                          9,896
                                                                          8,338
Indiana
                                                                         15,833
                                                                         15,189
                                                                         11,573
 
                                                                         18,969
                                                                         18,366
                                                                         14,621
 
                                                                         15,833
                                                                         15,189
                                                                         10,201
Kentucky
                                                                         18,521
                                                                         17,001
                                                                         17,001
 
                                                                         18,883
                                                                         18,883
                                                                         18,883
 
                                                                         18,521
                                                                         17,001
                                                                         11,827
Louisiana
                                                                         18,621
                                                                         17,929
                                                                         17,929
 
                                                                         18,670
                                                                         18,670
                                                                         18,670
 
                                                                         18,621
                                                                         17,929
                                                                         15,272
Maryland
                                                                          1,814
                                                                          1,532
                                                                          1,631
 
                                                                          1,816
                                                                          1,533
                                                                          1,633
 
                                                                          1,814
                                                                          1,532
                                                                          1,414
Michigan
                                                                         15,406
                                                                         12,070
                                                                         11,841
 
                                                                         15,882
                                                                         12,567
                                                                         12,327
 
                                                                         15,406
                                                                         12,070
                                                                          8,887
New Jersey
                                                                          1,517
                                                                          1,517
                                                                          1,517
 
                                                                          1,629
                                                                          1,629
                                                                          1,629
 
                                                                          1,517
                                                                          1,517
                                                                          1,521
New York
                                                                          4,133
                                                                          4,139
                                                                          4,117
 
                                                                          4,190
                                                                          4,196
                                                                          4,174
 
                                                                          4,133
                                                                          4,139
                                                                          3,989
Ohio
                                                                         11,725
                                                                         11,825
                                                                         11,825
 
                                                                         18,740
                                                                         18,839
                                                                         18,839
 
                                                                         11,725
                                                                         11,825
                                                                         11,158
Pennsylvania
                                                                         10,139
                                                                         10,131
                                                                         10,131
 
                                                                         14,287
                                                                         14,285
                                                                         14,285
 
                                                                         10,139
                                                                         10,131
                                                                          9,499
Virginia
                                                                          5,583
                                                                          4,816
                                                                          4,432
 
                                                                          5,640
                                                                          5,272
                                                                          4,866
 
                                                                          5,583
                                                                          4,816
                                                                          3,853
West Virginia
                                                                         16,560
                                                                         15,589
                                                                         15,589
 
                                                                         18,170
                                                                         18,170
                                                                         18,170
 
                                                                         16,560
                                                                         15,589
                                                                         12,787
 



 



 



Region Cap (Budget Total)
                                                                        108,248
                                                                        100,525
                                                                         96,974
 
                                                                        122,468
                                                                        117,822
                                                                        114,138
 
                                                                        108,248
                                                                        100,525
                                                                         81,609

Appendix E: Generation Shifting Analysis
      
Table Appendix E-1. Tons of EGU NOX Reduction Potential from Shifting Generation Compared to Adjusted Historical Baseline Emissions.






Appendix F: Feasibility Assessment for Engineering Analytics Baseline

Similar to CSAPR Update Final Action, EPA analyzed and confirmed that the assumed fleet operations in its baseline emissions and budget estimates were compatible with future load requirements by verifying that new units in addition to the existing fleet would provide enough generation, assuming technology-specific capacity factors, to replace the retiring generation expected to occur in years 2021 through 2024. EPA assessed generation adequacy specific to the 12 states covered under this action.  EPA uses these observations to determine whether any assumed replacement generation from the existing fleet is necessary to offset the announced retirements and continue to satisfy electricity load.  Additionally, EPA looked at whether the combination of new units (both fossil and non-fossil) provide sufficient new generation to replace retiring generation. In this case, EPA found that the new unit generation from fossil and renewable generation would exceed the generation from retiring units in all three scenarios examined, indicating that no further replacement generation from existing units is needed. Moreover, EPA found the change in generation from the covered fossil units to be within the observed historical trend. EPA updated its analysis below at final rule taking into account the latest announcements and commenter data on new units and retirements. EPA's conclusion was further supported by its updated analysis and data.
 
 EPA first identified the collective baseline heat input and generation from the 12 states covered in this action and compared it to historical trends for these same states (Scenario 1).  This illustrated that the assumed heat input and generation from fleet turnover was well within with recent historical trends (see tables Appendix F-1,Appendix F-2, and Appendix F-3 below).
 EPA then compared the collective baseline heat input and generation from the 12 states covered in this action to a scenario where fossil generation remains at 2019 levels instead of continuing to decline (Scenario 2).
 Finally, EPA identified the 2020 Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook (EIA AEO) annual growth projections from 2019 through 2024 total electricity demand levels (0.8%) from its reference case, and estimated an upperbound future year scenario where covered fossil generation grew at levels matching this fleet-wide total growth rate (Scenario 3).
 EPA's assessment illustrates the amount of generation in its baseline, factoring in retirements and new fossil units, is more than sufficient to accommodate all three scenarios. For instance, generation from covered fossil sources in these 12 states has dropped at an average rate greater than 2% per year between 2016 and 2019 (410 TWh to 384 Twh). However, EPA's assumed baseline generation from covered fossil sources for the 12 states reflects a rate of decline less than 2% per year. See Table Appendix F-2.
 EPA then identified new RE capacity under construction, testing, or in site prep by 2021. For years beyond 2021, EPA also identified new RE capacity that was planned but with regulatory approvals pending for years 2022 and beyond (as this capacity is unlikely to have yet started construction). 
 EPA calculated and added the RE generation values to the fossil baseline to estimate future year generation in the state (see Table Appendix F-3). EPA used a capacity factor of 42.7% for wind, 21.6% for solar, and 65% for NGCC.
 Using these technology-specific capacity factors based on past performance and IPM documentation, EPA anticipated over 20 TWh from new generation already under construction or being planned with regulatory approval received. This combined with the baseline generation from existing units exceeds the expected generation load for the 12 states under all three scenarios.
      
 Not only is the future baseline generation level assumed in EPA's engineering analysis well within the recent historical fossil generation trend (See Table Appendix F-2) on its own (which illustrates no need for replacement generation), but it is also exceeds an upper bound analysis for future covered fossil generation that assumes 0.8% growth from the existing fossil fleet (scenario 3). Moreover, the potential new generation from RE (over 7 TWh) when added to the baseline fossil generation values further increases the amount by which baseline generation exceeds the historical fossil generation for the 12 states with assumed annual growth of 0.8%. This indicates that available capacity and generation assumed would serve load requirements in this upper bound scenario.

      Not included in the tables below nor in EPA's baseline, but listed in the latest EIA 860m is even more planned NGCC combined cycle for years 2023 and 2024 that is pending regulatory approval. Assuming some of this (low emitting generation) becomes available in the outer years, that constitutes additional generation that exceeds EPA's upperbound generation levels below  -  further bolstering the observation that no replacement generation from existing units needs to be assumed to fill generation from retiring units. 

Table Appendix F-1: Heat Input Change Due to Fleet Turnover (Historical and Future)
 
             Reported Heat Input from Covered Fossil Units (TBtu)
 
                 Assumed Heat Input from Covered Fossil (TBtu)
 
                                                                           2016
                                                                           2017
                                                                           2018
                                                                           2019
 
                                                                           2021
                                                                           2022
                                                                           2023
                                                                           2024
Illinois
                                                                          383.4
                                                                          333.2
                                                                          379.3
                                                                          311.8
 
                                                                            267
                                                                            267
                                                                            270
                                                                            266
Indiana
                                                                          415.6
                                                                          379.1
                                                                          432.3
                                                                          356.5
 
                                                                            357
                                                                            352
                                                                            356
                                                                            297
Kentucky
                                                                          360.2
                                                                          319.1
                                                                          351.3
                                                                          313.8
 
                                                                            287
                                                                            287
                                                                            287
                                                                            287
Louisiana
                                                                          331.8
                                                                            302
                                                                          312.2
                                                                          317.4
 
                                                                            344
                                                                            345
                                                                            345
                                                                            345
Maryland
                                                                          108.7
                                                                           76.9
                                                                           95.7
                                                                             83
 
                                                                             82
                                                                             79
                                                                             79
                                                                             94
Michigan
                                                                          331.5
                                                                            317
                                                                          344.4
                                                                          316.1
 
                                                                            315
                                                                            315
                                                                            325
                                                                            318
New Jersey
                                                                          178.7
                                                                          145.1
                                                                          150.8
                                                                          144.9
 
                                                                            145
                                                                            145
                                                                            145
                                                                            145
New York
                                                                          269.7
                                                                          199.7
                                                                          228.6
                                                                          195.6
 
                                                                            227
                                                                            227
                                                                            228
                                                                            228
Ohio
                                                                            429
                                                                            401
                                                                          392.2
                                                                          391.2
 
                                                                            376
                                                                            394
                                                                            394
                                                                            394
Pennsylvania
                                                                          515.8
                                                                          473.1
                                                                          460.1
                                                                          485.2
 
                                                                            517
                                                                            526
                                                                            526
                                                                            526
Virginia
                                                                          259.9
                                                                          228.2
                                                                            241
                                                                          237.9
 
                                                                            249
                                                                            246
                                                                            261
                                                                            252
West Virginia
                                                                          323.1
                                                                            324
                                                                          303.6
                                                                          287.9
 
                                                                            285
                                                                            285
                                                                            285
                                                                            285
Total
                                                                          3,907
                                                                          3,498
                                                                          3,692
                                                                          3,441
 
                                                                          3,450
                                                                          3,468
                                                                          3,501
                                                                          3,437

Table Appendix F-2: Generation Change Due to Fleet Turnover (Historical and Future)
 
              Reported Generation from Covered Fossil Units (TWh)
 
                 Assumed Generation from Covered Fossil (TWh)
State
2016
2017
2018
2019
 
2021
2022
2023
2024
Illinois
                                                                           38.6
                                                                           33.9
                                                                           38.7
                                                                           32.7
                                                                               
                                                                           28.3
                                                                           28.3
                                                                           29.6
                                                                           29.2
Indiana
                                                                           42.7
                                                                           39.4
                                                                           45.8
                                                                           38.8
                                                                               
                                                                           38.8
                                                                           38.4
                                                                           39.0
                                                                           33.8
Kentucky
                                                                           37.1
                                                                           33.8
                                                                           37.2
                                                                           33.6
                                                                               
                                                                           31.0
                                                                           31.0
                                                                           31.0
                                                                           31.0
Louisiana
                                                                             36
                                                                           33.1
                                                                           34.6
                                                                           36.1
                                                                               
                                                                           39.8
                                                                           39.9
                                                                           39.9
                                                                           39.9
Maryland
                                                                             11
                                                                            7.9
                                                                           10.4
                                                                            9.5
                                                                               
                                                                            9.4
                                                                            9.1
                                                                            9.1
                                                                           11.5
Michigan
                                                                           31.8
                                                                           30.8
                                                                             34
                                                                           31.7
                                                                               
                                                                           31.6
                                                                           31.7
                                                                           35.2
                                                                           34.5
New Jersey
                                                                           20.5
                                                                           17.2
                                                                           18.2
                                                                             18
                                                                               
                                                                           18.0
                                                                           18.0
                                                                           18.0
                                                                           18.0
New York
                                                                             30
                                                                           22.5
                                                                           25.6
                                                                           22.5
                                                                               
                                                                           26.4
                                                                           26.4
                                                                           26.5
                                                                           26.5
Ohio
                                                                           47.9
                                                                           45.1
                                                                           45.5
                                                                           45.8
                                                                               
                                                                           44.4
                                                                           46.9
                                                                           46.9
                                                                           46.9
Pennsylvania
                                                                           53.6
                                                                           49.7
                                                                           49.8
                                                                           56.8
                                                                               
                                                                           62.1
                                                                           63.6
                                                                           63.6
                                                                           63.6
Virginia
                                                                           27.8
                                                                           25.5
                                                                           27.1
                                                                           28.9
                                                                               
                                                                           30.8
                                                                           30.8
                                                                           33.3
                                                                           32.4
West Virginia
                                                                           33.9
                                                                           33.8
                                                                           31.8
                                                                           29.9
                                                                               
                                                                           29.9
                                                                           29.9
                                                                           29.9
                                                                           29.9
Total
                                                                          410.9
                                                                          372.7
                                                                          398.7
                                                                          384.3
                                                                               
                                                                          390.5
                                                                          394.0
                                                                          402.0
                                                                          397.2


Table Appendix F-3: Assumed Baseline OS Generation and Expected New Build Generation from Covered Fossil Units (TWh)
 
                                                                           2019
                                                                           2020
                                                                           2021
                                                                           2022
                                                                            203
                                                                           2024
Scenario 1 - Generation Levels (with continued pace of 2% decline)
                                                                          384.2
                                                                          376.5
                                                                          369.0
                                                                          361.6
                                                                          354.4
                                                                          347.3
Scenario 2 - Generation Levels (no change from 2019)
                                                                          384.2
                                                                          384.2
                                                                          384.2
                                                                          384.2
                                                                          384.2
                                                                          384.2
Scenario 3 - Generation Levels (.8% growth from covered fossil)
                                                                          384.2
                                                                          387.3
                                                                          390.4
                                                                          393.5
                                                                          396.6
                                                                          399.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Assumed Baseline Fossil Generation with Reported Fossil Retirement and Reported New Build
 
 
                                                                          390.5
                                                                          394.0
                                                                          402.0
                                                                          397.2
New Build (Non-Fossil)
 
 
                                                                            4.6
                                                                            7.2
                                                                            7.2
                                                                            7.2
Total Baseline Generation
 
 
                                                                          395.1
                                                                          401.2
                                                                          409.2
                                                                          404.4


Appendix G:  State Emission Budgets and Variability Limits

   Table Appendix G-1: State Emission Budgets and Variability Limits (tons)

                                     2021
                                     2022
                                     2023
                                     2024
State
Emission Budgets 
Variability Limit 
Emission Budgets 
Variability Limit 
Emission Budgets 
Variability Limit 
Emission Budgets 
Variability Limit 
Illinois
                                                                          9,102
                                                                          1,911
                                                                          9,102
                                                                          1,911
                                                                          8,179
                                                                          1,718
                                                                          8,059
                                                                          1,692
Indiana
                                                                         13,051
                                                                          2,741
                                                                         12,582
                                                                          2,642
                                                                         12,553
                                                                          2,636
                                                                          9,564
                                                                          2,008
Kentucky
                                                                         15,300
                                                                          3,213
                                                                         14,051
                                                                          2,951
                                                                         14,051
                                                                          2,951
                                                                         14,051
                                                                          2,951
Louisiana
                                                                         14,818
                                                                          3,112
                                                                         14,818
                                                                          3,112
                                                                         14,818
                                                                          3,112
                                                                         14,818
                                                                          3,112
Maryland
                                                                          1,499
                                                                            315
                                                                          1,266
                                                                            266
                                                                          1,266
                                                                            266
                                                                          1,348
                                                                            283
Michigan
                                                                         12,727
                                                                          2,673
                                                                         12,290
                                                                          2,581
                                                                          9,975
                                                                          2,095
                                                                          9,786
                                                                          2,055
New Jersey
                                                                          1,253
                                                                            263
                                                                          1,253
                                                                            263
                                                                          1,253
                                                                            263
                                                                          1,253
                                                                            263
New York
                                                                          3,416
                                                                            717
                                                                          3,416
                                                                            717
                                                                          3,421
                                                                            718
                                                                          3,403
                                                                            715
Ohio
                                                                          9,690
                                                                          2,035
                                                                          9,773
                                                                          2,052
                                                                          9,773
                                                                          2,052
                                                                          9,773
                                                                          2,052
Pennsylvania
                                                                          8,379
                                                                          1,760
                                                                          8,373
                                                                          1,758
                                                                          8,373
                                                                          1,758
                                                                          8,373
                                                                          1,758
Virginia
                                                                          4,516
                                                                            948
                                                                          3,897
                                                                            818
                                                                          3,980
                                                                            836
                                                                          3,663
                                                                            769
West Virginia
                                                                         13,334
                                                                          2,800
                                                                         12,884
                                                                          2,706
                                                                         12,884
                                                                          2,706
                                                                         12,884
                                                                          2,706

Appendix H:  AQAT Estimates for the 2021 and 2022 Sensitivity Cases

      EPA performed a series of sensitivity scenarios using an inventory based on 2021 and one (for 2022) interpolated between 2021 and 2023.  The fractional change in emissions are shown below.  Scenarios that are not viable, for technical or policy reasons, have been grayed out in these tables.

Table H-1.  2021 Fractional Difference in Emissions Relative to 2023 Air Quality Modeling Base Case for Each State.
State
Eng Baseline
$500/ton
Optimize SCR
Optimize SCR + LNB
Optimize SNCR+ SCR
Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
Straight Line Interpolation
Alabama
                                                                          0.094
                                                                          0.094
                                                                          0.094
                                                                          0.092
                                                                          0.094
                                                                          0.092
                                                                          0.092
                                                                          0.090
                                                                          0.140
Arizona
                                                                          0.062
                                                                          0.056
                                                                          0.045
                                                                          0.045
                                                                          0.045
                                                                          0.045
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.030
                                                                          0.160
Arkansas
                                                                          0.055
                                                                          0.053
                                                                          0.054
                                                                          0.054
                                                                          0.054
                                                                          0.054
                                                                          0.010
                                                                         -0.033
                                                                          0.136
California
                                                                          0.096
                                                                          0.096
                                                                          0.095
                                                                          0.095
                                                                          0.095
                                                                          0.095
                                                                          0.095
                                                                          0.095
                                                                          0.132
Colorado
                                                                          0.033
                                                                          0.033
                                                                          0.033
                                                                          0.033
                                                                          0.032
                                                                          0.032
                                                                          0.014
                                                                         -0.017
                                                                          0.117
Connecticut
                                                                          0.044
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.138
Delaware
                                                                          0.052
                                                                          0.052
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.131
District of Columbia
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.129
Florida
                                                                          0.083
                                                                          0.083
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.058
                                                                          0.182
Georgia
                                                                          0.098
                                                                          0.098
                                                                          0.098
                                                                          0.098
                                                                          0.098
                                                                          0.098
                                                                          0.097
                                                                          0.097
                                                                          0.162
Idaho
                                                                          0.089
                                                                          0.089
                                                                          0.089
                                                                          0.089
                                                                          0.089
                                                                          0.089
                                                                          0.089
                                                                          0.089
                                                                          0.136
Illinois
                                                                          0.031
                                                                          0.030
                                                                          0.029
                                                                          0.029
                                                                          0.028
                                                                          0.028
                                                                          0.020
                                                                          0.017
                                                                          0.111
Indiana
                                                                          0.045
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.011
                                                                          0.011
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                         -0.003
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                          0.164
Iowa
                                                                          0.021
                                                                          0.019
                                                                          0.004
                                                                          0.003
                                                                          0.004
                                                                          0.003
                                                                         -0.029
                                                                         -0.078
                                                                          0.107
Kansas
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.011
                                                                          0.011
                                                                          0.004
                                                                         -0.013
                                                                          0.088
Kentucky
                                                                          0.189
                                                                          0.190
                                                                          0.184
                                                                          0.160
                                                                          0.184
                                                                          0.160
                                                                          0.126
                                                                          0.077
                                                                          0.201
Louisiana
                                                                          0.126
                                                                          0.125
                                                                          0.125
                                                                          0.125
                                                                          0.120
                                                                          0.120
                                                                          0.115
                                                                          0.099
                                                                          0.091
Maine
                                                                          0.107
                                                                          0.107
                                                                          0.107
                                                                          0.107
                                                                          0.107
                                                                          0.107
                                                                          0.107
                                                                          0.107
                                                                          0.131
Maryland
                                                                          0.007
                                                                          0.007
                                                                          0.007
                                                                          0.007
                                                                          0.007
                                                                          0.007
                                                                          0.001
                                                                         -0.002
                                                                          0.166
Massachusetts
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.023
                                                                          0.023
                                                                          0.109
Michigan
                                                                          0.055
                                                                          0.047
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.041
                                                                          0.028
                                                                          0.013
                                                                          0.100
Minnesota
                                                                          0.090
                                                                          0.088
                                                                          0.081
                                                                          0.081
                                                                          0.081
                                                                          0.081
                                                                          0.062
                                                                          0.054
                                                                          0.120
Mississippi
                                                                          0.264
                                                                          0.264
                                                                          0.264
                                                                          0.254
                                                                          0.264
                                                                          0.254
                                                                          0.235
                                                                          0.216
                                                                          0.188
Missouri
                                                                          0.040
                                                                          0.039
                                                                          0.026
                                                                          0.026
                                                                          0.025
                                                                          0.025
                                                                          0.021
                                                                          0.002
                                                                          0.161
Montana
                                                                          0.098
                                                                          0.098
                                                                          0.098
                                                                          0.098
                                                                          0.098
                                                                          0.098
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.039
                                                                          0.116
Nebraska
                                                                          0.057
                                                                          0.055
                                                                          0.056
                                                                          0.044
                                                                          0.056
                                                                          0.044
                                                                          0.013
                                                                         -0.029
                                                                          0.103
Nevada
                                                                          0.140
                                                                          0.109
                                                                          0.089
                                                                          0.089
                                                                          0.089
                                                                          0.089
                                                                          0.069
                                                                          0.030
                                                                          0.173
New Hampshire
                                                                          0.103
                                                                          0.103
                                                                          0.092
                                                                          0.092
                                                                          0.092
                                                                          0.092
                                                                          0.092
                                                                          0.092
                                                                          0.147
New Jersey
                                                                          0.044
                                                                          0.044
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.157
New Mexico
                                                                          0.057
                                                                          0.057
                                                                          0.054
                                                                          0.054
                                                                          0.054
                                                                          0.054
                                                                          0.042
                                                                          0.005
                                                                          0.091
New York
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.009
                                                                         -0.011
                                                                         -0.011
                                                                          0.105
North Carolina
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.052
North Dakota
                                                                          0.051
                                                                          0.050
                                                                         -0.010
                                                                         -0.010
                                                                         -0.012
                                                                         -0.012
                                                                         -0.045
                                                                         -0.089
                                                                          0.093
Ohio
                                                                          0.084
                                                                          0.082
                                                                          0.081
                                                                          0.081
                                                                          0.067
                                                                          0.067
                                                                          0.025
                                                                         -0.093
                                                                          0.077
Oklahoma
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.034
Oregon
                                                                          0.045
                                                                          0.042
                                                                         -0.017
                                                                         -0.017
                                                                         -0.017
                                                                         -0.017
                                                                         -0.018
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                          0.125
Pennsylvania
                                                                          0.038
                                                                          0.037
                                                                          0.035
                                                                          0.035
                                                                          0.035
                                                                          0.035
                                                                          0.026
                                                                          0.021
                                                                          0.054
Rhode Island
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.134
South Carolina
                                                                          0.004
                                                                          0.004
                                                                         -0.027
                                                                         -0.027
                                                                         -0.027
                                                                         -0.027
                                                                         -0.031
                                                                         -0.031
                                                                          0.122
South Dakota
                                                                          0.039
                                                                          0.040
                                                                          0.040
                                                                          0.040
                                                                          0.040
                                                                          0.040
                                                                          0.040
                                                                          0.040
                                                                          0.136
Tennessee
                                                                          0.038
                                                                          0.038
                                                                          0.014
                                                                          0.014
                                                                          0.014
                                                                          0.014
                                                                          0.013
                                                                          0.013
                                                                          0.128
Texas
                                                                          0.135
                                                                          0.135
                                                                          0.135
                                                                          0.135
                                                                          0.135
                                                                          0.135
                                                                          0.135
                                                                          0.135
                                                                          0.167
Utah
                                                                          0.075
                                                                          0.075
                                                                          0.072
                                                                          0.072
                                                                          0.072
                                                                          0.072
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.163
Vermont
                                                                          0.063
                                                                          0.060
                                                                          0.055
                                                                          0.055
                                                                          0.055
                                                                          0.055
                                                                          0.037
                                                                          0.016
                                                                          0.095
Virginia
                                                                          0.076
                                                                          0.076
                                                                          0.076
                                                                          0.076
                                                                          0.076
                                                                          0.076
                                                                         -0.015
                                                                         -0.192
                                                                          0.580
Washington
                                                                          0.055
                                                                          0.003
                                                                          0.002
                                                                          0.002
                                                                          0.002
                                                                          0.002
                                                                          0.009
                                                                         -0.044
                                                                          0.142
West Virginia
                                                                          0.088
                                                                          0.087
                                                                          0.087
                                                                          0.087
                                                                          0.087
                                                                          0.087
                                                                          0.087
                                                                          0.087
                                                                          0.143
Wisconsin
                                                                          0.100
                                                                          0.100
                                                                          0.099
                                                                          0.094
                                                                          0.097
                                                                          0.093
                                                                          0.093
                                                                          0.085
                                                                          0.176
Wyoming
                                                                          0.105
                                                                          0.105
                                                                          0.105
                                                                          0.105
                                                                          0.105
                                                                          0.105
                                                                          0.105
                                                                          0.091
                                                                          0.148
Tribal Data
                                                                         -0.016
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                         -0.044
                                                                         -0.053
                                                                         -0.050
                                                                         -0.059
                                                                         -0.059
                                                                         -0.102
                                                                          0.042


Table H-2.  2022 Fractional Difference in Emissions Relative to 2023 Air Quality Modeling Base Case for Each State.
State
Eng Baseline
$500/ton
Optimize SCR
Optimize SCR + LNB
Optimize SNCR+ SCR
Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
Straight Line Interpolation
Alabama
                                                                          0.065
                                                                          0.065
                                                                          0.065
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.065
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.061
                                                                          0.070
Arizona
                                                                          0.035
                                                                          0.029
                                                                          0.018
                                                                          0.018
                                                                          0.018
                                                                          0.018
                                                                          0.023
                                                                          0.003
                                                                          0.080
Arkansas
                                                                          0.019
                                                                          0.017
                                                                          0.018
                                                                          0.018
                                                                          0.018
                                                                          0.018
                                                                         -0.026
                                                                         -0.069
                                                                          0.068
California
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.066
Colorado
                                                                          0.019
                                                                          0.019
                                                                          0.018
                                                                          0.018
                                                                          0.018
                                                                          0.018
                                                                          0.000
                                                                         -0.031
                                                                          0.059
Connecticut
                                                                          0.013
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.009
                                                                          0.009
                                                                          0.069
Delaware
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.021
                                                                          0.021
                                                                          0.066
District of Columbia
                                                                          0.021
                                                                          0.021
                                                                          0.021
                                                                          0.021
                                                                          0.021
                                                                          0.021
                                                                          0.021
                                                                          0.021
                                                                          0.065
Florida
                                                                          0.062
                                                                          0.062
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.050
                                                                          0.044
                                                                          0.038
                                                                          0.091
Georgia
                                                                          0.062
                                                                          0.062
                                                                          0.061
                                                                          0.061
                                                                          0.061
                                                                          0.061
                                                                          0.061
                                                                          0.061
                                                                          0.081
Idaho
                                                                          0.056
                                                                          0.056
                                                                          0.056
                                                                          0.056
                                                                          0.056
                                                                          0.056
                                                                          0.056
                                                                          0.056
                                                                          0.068
Illinois
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.008
                                                                          0.008
                                                                          0.007
                                                                          0.007
                                                                         -0.001
                                                                         -0.004
                                                                          0.055
Indiana
                                                                          0.009
                                                                          0.007
                                                                         -0.025
                                                                         -0.025
                                                                         -0.025
                                                                         -0.025
                                                                         -0.037
                                                                         -0.051
                                                                          0.082
Iowa
                                                                         -0.014
                                                                         -0.016
                                                                         -0.031
                                                                         -0.032
                                                                         -0.031
                                                                         -0.032
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                         -0.113
                                                                          0.053
Kansas
                                                                         -0.007
                                                                         -0.007
                                                                         -0.017
                                                                         -0.017
                                                                         -0.017
                                                                         -0.017
                                                                         -0.025
                                                                         -0.041
                                                                          0.044
Kentucky
                                                                          0.165
                                                                          0.165
                                                                          0.160
                                                                          0.136
                                                                          0.160
                                                                          0.136
                                                                          0.102
                                                                          0.053
                                                                          0.100
Louisiana
                                                                          0.108
                                                                          0.108
                                                                          0.108
                                                                          0.108
                                                                          0.102
                                                                          0.102
                                                                          0.098
                                                                          0.081
                                                                          0.046
Maine
                                                                          0.077
                                                                          0.077
                                                                          0.077
                                                                          0.077
                                                                          0.077
                                                                          0.077
                                                                          0.077
                                                                          0.077
                                                                          0.065
Maryland
                                                                         -0.012
                                                                         -0.012
                                                                         -0.012
                                                                         -0.012
                                                                         -0.012
                                                                         -0.012
                                                                         -0.018
                                                                         -0.018
                                                                          0.083
Massachusetts
                                                                          0.014
                                                                          0.014
                                                                          0.014
                                                                          0.014
                                                                          0.014
                                                                          0.014
                                                                          0.014
                                                                          0.014
                                                                          0.055
Michigan
                                                                          0.030
                                                                          0.022
                                                                          0.017
                                                                          0.017
                                                                          0.017
                                                                          0.017
                                                                          0.004
                                                                         -0.011
                                                                          0.050
Minnesota
                                                                          0.040
                                                                          0.038
                                                                          0.032
                                                                          0.032
                                                                          0.032
                                                                          0.032
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.005
                                                                          0.060
Mississippi
                                                                          0.228
                                                                          0.228
                                                                          0.228
                                                                          0.218
                                                                          0.228
                                                                          0.218
                                                                          0.199
                                                                          0.180
                                                                          0.094
Missouri
                                                                          0.005
                                                                          0.004
                                                                         -0.010
                                                                         -0.010
                                                                         -0.011
                                                                         -0.011
                                                                         -0.014
                                                                         -0.033
                                                                          0.080
Montana
                                                                          0.046
                                                                          0.046
                                                                          0.046
                                                                          0.046
                                                                          0.046
                                                                          0.046
                                                                          0.018
                                                                         -0.013
                                                                          0.058
Nebraska
                                                                          0.021
                                                                          0.019
                                                                          0.020
                                                                          0.008
                                                                          0.020
                                                                          0.008
                                                                         -0.023
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                          0.051
Nevada
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.043
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.024
                                                                          0.016
                                                                          0.004
                                                                          0.086
New Hampshire
                                                                          0.081
                                                                          0.081
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.073
New Jersey
                                                                          0.020
                                                                          0.020
                                                                          0.017
                                                                          0.017
                                                                          0.017
                                                                          0.017
                                                                          0.017
                                                                          0.017
                                                                          0.078
New Mexico
                                                                          0.033
                                                                          0.033
                                                                          0.030
                                                                          0.030
                                                                          0.030
                                                                          0.030
                                                                          0.018
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                          0.046
New York
                                                                         -0.015
                                                                         -0.015
                                                                         -0.016
                                                                         -0.016
                                                                         -0.016
                                                                         -0.016
                                                                         -0.017
                                                                         -0.017
                                                                          0.052
North Carolina
                                                                         -0.032
                                                                         -0.032
                                                                         -0.032
                                                                         -0.032
                                                                         -0.032
                                                                         -0.032
                                                                         -0.032
                                                                         -0.032
                                                                         -0.026
North Dakota
                                                                          0.020
                                                                          0.019
                                                                         -0.041
                                                                         -0.041
                                                                         -0.043
                                                                         -0.043
                                                                         -0.076
                                                                         -0.119
                                                                          0.047
Ohio
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.048
                                                                          0.046
                                                                          0.046
                                                                          0.033
                                                                          0.033
                                                                         -0.010
                                                                         -0.128
                                                                          0.038
Oklahoma
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.012
                                                                          0.017
Oregon
                                                                          0.016
                                                                          0.013
                                                                         -0.046
                                                                         -0.046
                                                                         -0.046
                                                                         -0.046
                                                                         -0.048
                                                                         -0.052
                                                                          0.062
Pennsylvania
                                                                          0.019
                                                                          0.018
                                                                          0.016
                                                                          0.016
                                                                          0.016
                                                                          0.016
                                                                          0.007
                                                                          0.002
                                                                          0.027
Rhode Island
                                                                          0.038
                                                                          0.038
                                                                          0.038
                                                                          0.038
                                                                          0.038
                                                                          0.038
                                                                          0.038
                                                                          0.038
                                                                          0.067
South Carolina
                                                                          0.006
                                                                          0.005
                                                                         -0.025
                                                                         -0.025
                                                                         -0.025
                                                                         -0.025
                                                                         -0.029
                                                                         -0.030
                                                                          0.061
South Dakota
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.010
                                                                          0.068
Tennessee
                                                                          0.011
                                                                          0.011
                                                                         -0.014
                                                                         -0.014
                                                                         -0.014
                                                                         -0.014
                                                                         -0.014
                                                                         -0.014
                                                                          0.064
Texas
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.072
                                                                          0.072
                                                                          0.072
                                                                          0.072
                                                                          0.072
                                                                          0.072
                                                                          0.072
                                                                          0.083
Utah
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.046
                                                                          0.046
                                                                          0.046
                                                                          0.046
                                                                          0.044
                                                                          0.044
                                                                          0.081
Vermont
                                                                          0.037
                                                                          0.034
                                                                          0.029
                                                                          0.029
                                                                          0.029
                                                                          0.029
                                                                          0.010
                                                                         -0.010
                                                                          0.048
Virginia
                                                                          0.079
                                                                          0.078
                                                                          0.078
                                                                          0.078
                                                                          0.078
                                                                          0.078
                                                                         -0.013
                                                                         -0.190
                                                                          0.290
Washington
                                                                          0.034
                                                                         -0.018
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                         -0.019
                                                                         -0.011
                                                                         -0.065
                                                                          0.071
West Virginia
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.049
                                                                          0.072
Wisconsin
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.070
                                                                          0.065
                                                                          0.068
                                                                          0.064
                                                                          0.063
                                                                          0.056
                                                                          0.088
Wyoming
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.073
                                                                          0.059
                                                                          0.074
Tribal Data
                                                                         -0.028
                                                                         -0.031
                                                                         -0.055
                                                                         -0.064
                                                                         -0.062
                                                                         -0.070
                                                                         -0.071
                                                                         -0.113
                                                                          0.021

Table H-3. 2021 Average Ozone DVs (ppb) for NOX Emissions Cost Threshold Levels ($/ton) Assessed Using the Ozone AQAT for All Receptors.
                         Monitor Identification Number
                                     State
                                    County
                           CAMx 2023 Base Case (ppb)
              Assessment Tool Average Ozone Design Values (ppb).
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                 Straight line
                             Engineering Baseline
                                   $500/ton
                                 Optimize SCR
                              Optimize SCR + LNB 
                              Optimize SNCR+ SCR
                           Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB 
                      New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                      New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                                                                       90013007
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           74.3
                                                                          76.50
                                                                          74.77
                                                                          74.76
                                                                          74.59
                                                                          74.58
                                                                          74.59
                                                                          74.58
                                                                          74.54
                                                                          74.48
                                                                       90019003
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           76.9
                                                                          78.56
                                                                          77.26
                                                                          77.25
                                                                          77.12
                                                                          77.11
                                                                          77.11
                                                                          77.10
                                                                          77.07
                                                                          77.02
                                                                       90099002
CT
New Haven
                                                                           71.7
                                                                          73.98
                                                                          72.21
                                                                          72.19
                                                                          72.02
                                                                          72.00
                                                                          72.01
                                                                          71.99
                                                                          71.94
                                                                          71.87
                                                                      482010024
TX
Harris
                                                                           74.0
                                                                          75.51
                                                                          75.14
                                                                          75.10
                                                                          75.03
                                                                          75.03
                                                                          75.02
                                                                          75.02
                                                                          74.77
                                                                          74.47

Table H-4. 2021 Maximum Ozone DVs (ppb) for NOX Emissions Cost Threshold Levels ($/ton) Assessed Using the Ozone AQAT for All Receptors.
                         Monitor Identification Number
                                     State
                                    County
                           CAMx 2023 Base Case (ppb)
              Assessment Tool Maximum Ozone Design Values (ppb).
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                 Straight line
                             Engineering Baseline
                                   $500/ton
                                 Optimize SCR
                              Optimize SCR + LNB 
                              Optimize SNCR+ SCR
                           Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB 
                      New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                      New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                                                                       90013007
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           75.2
                                                                          77.43
                                                                          75.68
                                                                          75.66
                                                                          75.50
                                                                          75.48
                                                                          75.49
                                                                          75.48
                                                                          75.44
                                                                          75.38
                                                                       90019003
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           77.2
                                                                          78.86
                                                                          77.56
                                                                          77.55
                                                                          77.42
                                                                          77.41
                                                                          77.41
                                                                          77.40
                                                                          77.37
                                                                          77.32
                                                                       90099002
CT
New Haven
                                                                           73.8
                                                                          76.15
                                                                          74.32
                                                                          74.31
                                                                          74.13
                                                                          74.11
                                                                          74.12
                                                                          74.10
                                                                          74.05
                                                                          73.97
                                                                      482010024
TX
Harris
                                                                           75.6
                                                                          77.15
                                                                          76.76
                                                                          76.72
                                                                          76.66
                                                                          76.66
                                                                          76.65
                                                                          76.65
                                                                          76.39
                                                                          76.08

Table H-5. 2022 Average Ozone DVs (ppb) for NOX Emissions Cost Threshold Levels ($/ton) Assessed Using the Ozone AQAT for All Receptors.
                         Monitor Identification Number
                                     State
                                    County
                           CAMx 2023 Base Case (ppb)
              Assessment Tool Average Ozone Design Values (ppb).
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                 Straight line
                             Engineering Baseline
                                   $500/ton
                                 Optimize SCR
                              Optimize SCR + LNB 
                              Optimize SNCR+ SCR
                           Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB 
                      New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                      New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                                                                       90013007
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           74.3
                                                                          75.40
                                                                          74.48
                                                                          74.46
                                                                          74.30
                                                                          74.29
                                                                          74.30
                                                                          74.28
                                                                          74.24
                                                                          74.19
                                                                       90019003
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           76.9
                                                                          77.73
                                                                          77.04
                                                                          77.03
                                                                          76.90
                                                                          76.89
                                                                          76.89
                                                                          76.88
                                                                          76.85
                                                                          76.80
                                                                       90099002
CT
New Haven
                                                                           71.7
                                                                          72.84
                                                                          71.89
                                                                          71.87
                                                                          71.70
                                                                          71.68
                                                                          71.69
                                                                          71.68
                                                                          71.63
                                                                          71.56
                                                                      482010024
TX
Harris
                                                                           74.0
                                                                          74.76
                                                                          74.74
                                                                          74.70
                                                                          74.64
                                                                          74.64
                                                                          74.63
                                                                          74.63
                                                                          74.37
                                                                          74.08

Table H-6. 2022 Maximum Ozone DVs (ppb) for NOX Emissions Cost Threshold Levels ($/ton) Assessed Using the Ozone AQAT for All Receptors.
                         Monitor Identification Number
                                     State
                                    County
                           CAMx 2023 Base Case (ppb)
              Assessment Tool Maximum Ozone Design Values (ppb).
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                 Straight line
                             Engineering Baseline
                                   $500/ton
                                 Optimize SCR
                              Optimize SCR + LNB 
                              Optimize SNCR+ SCR
                           Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB 
                      New SNCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                      New SCR + Optimize SNCR+ SCR + LNB
                                                                       90013007
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           75.2
                                                                          75.38
                                                                          75.37
                                                                          75.20
                                                                          75.19
                                                                          75.20
                                                                          75.18
                                                                          75.14
                                                                          75.09
                                                                          75.38
                                                                       90019003
CT
Fairfield
                                                                           77.2
                                                                          77.34
                                                                          77.33
                                                                          77.20
                                                                          77.19
                                                                          77.19
                                                                          77.18
                                                                          77.15
                                                                          77.10
                                                                          77.34
                                                                       90099002
CT
New Haven
                                                                           73.8
                                                                          74.00
                                                                          73.98
                                                                          73.80
                                                                          73.78
                                                                          73.79
                                                                          73.78
                                                                          73.73
                                                                          73.65
                                                                          74.00
                                                                      482010024
TX
Harris
                                                                           75.6
                                                                          76.36
                                                                          76.32
                                                                          76.25
                                                                          76.25
                                                                          76.24
                                                                          76.24
                                                                          75.98
                                                                          75.68
                                                                          76.36


