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                                                                     Memorandum
U.S. Department 
of Transportation

Office of the
Secretary of Transportation
	






                                                                       Subject:
Application of NEMS for Final Rule Regarding MY 2021-2026 CAFE and CO2 Standards

                                                                          Date:
March 28, 2020
                                                                          From:




                                                                            To:
Kevin Green
Chief, CAFE Program Office
OST/R, Volpe National Transportation Systems Center

Docket Numbers NHTSA-2017-0069 and NHTSA-2018-0067
                                                                              :

                                                                               



                                                                               



To develop some inputs (e.g., projections of future fuel prices) to analysis informing decisions regarding final Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) and CO2 standards for passenger cars and light trucks produced during model years (MYs) 2021-2026, Volpe Center staff exercised the 2019 version of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).  NEMS is a modeling system maintained by the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Information Administration (EIA), which uses NEMS to, among other things, produce EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO).  Information regarding AEO is available at https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/, and information regarding the availability of NEMS is available at https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/info_nems_archive.php.

The Volpe Center's application of NEMS for this analysis is discussed in Section VI.D.b.1(b)(1), titled "Macroeconomic assumptions used to analyze economic consequences of the final rule" of the Notice promulgating the above-mentioned standards.  As discussed in the Notice, the Center's modifications to EIA's AEO 2019 Reference case are all contained in the "NEMS_SAFE_rule.trnldvx_input.xlsx" NEMS input file accompanying this memorandum.  Among the corresponding NEMS output files, the CAFE/CO2 analysis made use of values in the "NEMS_SAFE_rule.api_output.csv" file also accompanying this memorandum.

