\* mergeformat
                                                                     Memorandum
U.S. Department 
of Transportation

Office of the
Secretary of Transportation
	






                                                                       Subject:
CAFE Model Updates after Model Application for Final EIS
                                                                          Date:
March 28, 2020
                                                                          From:




                                                                            To:
Kevin Green
Chief, CAFE Program Office
OST/R, Volpe National Transportation Systems Center

Docket Numbers NHTSA-2017-0069 and NHTSA-2018-0067
                                                                              :

                                                                               



                                                                               



The Final Environmental Impact Analysis (FEIS) prepared to inform the selection of final Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for model years (MYs) 2021-2026 uses estimates of the future annual quantities of various pollutants that will be attributable to passenger cars and light trucks.  Volpe Center staff developed these estimates in September 2019 by operating the Center's CAFE Model (and using inputs from other models, as discussed in the FEIS).  These emissions estimates are provided in an accompanying text file titled "emissions_for_FEIS_2019-09-12.csv".

During the ensuing months, Volpe Center staff continued to make corrections and updates to the CAFE Model and accompanying model inputs.  Appendix A lists these changes.

Most of these changes did not impact the CAFE Model's estimates of emissions.  Some changes involved the model's calculation and reporting of impacts on highway safety, but these impacts are not among those addressed the FEIS.  Similarly, some changes involved the model's calculation and reporting of various costs and benefits, and some involved how the model simulates compliance with EPA CO2 standards, but the FEIS does not present such costs or benefits, or present impacts of EPA CO2 standards.

However, three changes did impact emissions reported in the FEIS.  These changes included (a) corrections to typographical errors in CAFE Model inputs specifying years in which some Hyundai vehicles (G80s and G90s) could be "freshened", (b) insertion of missing estimates of schedules for redesign and freshening Mercedes S-Class vehicles, and (c) insertion of missing secondary fuel (i.e., electricity) shares for four plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) technologies.  However, resultant changes in estimated annual emissions were clearly inconsequential, as illustrated in Appendix B.  Graphs in this appendix use open symbols to represent emissions estimates reported in the FEIS, and lines to represent emissions estimates from modeling performed in the same manner, but after making the updates reported in Appendix B.  In every case, the latter precisely track the former.  Appendix C presents the underlying information in tabular form, showing that differences are all smaller than 0.5%, and are most frequently smaller than 0.1%.


Appendix A.  Model and Input Changes Subsequent to CAFE Model Execution for FEIS

 Added option, with inputs, to report implicit opportunity cost
 Revised assignment of various components to benefit and costs
 Input revisions to accommodate low, average, and high "Fatality Rates"
 Inserted missing semicolon in refresh schedules for Hyundai G80s and G90s
 Filled in missing refresh/redesign schedules for Mercedes S-Class
 Filled in missing secondary fuel (i.e., electricity) fuel shares for PHEV20T, PHEV50T, PHEV20H, PHEV50H
 Corrected representation of EPA ATV sales multipliers, added option to estimate impact of possible modifications to corresponding parts of CFR
 Added "Internalized Rebound Fatality Risk" on "Safety Values" tab (parameters input file)
 Removed unused variables from "Safety Values" tab and restructured inputs
 Added "Non-Fatal Injury Multiplier" to "Safety Values" tab, and relabeled values in column C to be "Non-Fatal Crash Multiplier"
 Revised values of "Non-Fatal Injury Multiplier" to reflect average number of non-fatal injuries per non-fatal crash for 2010 (1.32), calculated from 2015 Cost of Crashes report, Table 1-3, p. 3.
 Removed "Non-Fatal Costs Multiplier" column in "Safety Values" tab
 Removed "Accidents" external cost on "Economic Values" tab
 Changed pre-loaded age at first resale to 72 months
 Revised SUV/Van congestion value to match car value (as in initial testing and consistent with crossover proliferation)
 Added fatality rates reflecting high and low effectiveness of crash avoidance technologies to Fatality Rates tab
 Revised hourly values of refueling time and per-mile congestion costs to reflect 2017 NHTS estimates of vehicle occupancy (which include travelers 5 years of age or older)
 Updated static scrappage rates (represents nominal survival rates, for illustration only)
 Revised hourly values of refueling time (relabeled from "travel time") and external congestion costs on Economic Values tab to include only time of adult (16+ yrs.) passengers, and to use occupancy estimates from NHTSA refueling survey ("TPMS" occupancy data)
 Removed unused FC, Secondary FC, and Value Loss columns from Technology Inputs
 Removed unused Cost Synergies tab from Technology Inputs
 Changed MR6 label to show 28.2% glider weight reduction
 Added "EPA multiplier mode" (defined per manufacturer in market-data file)
 Updated methodology for calculating fatalities due to delta CW calculation
 Updated methodology for calculating fatalities due to rebound effect
 Corrected auxiliary calculation of incremental HEV costs and "burden" costs attributed to application of hybrid/electric technology

Appendix B.  Graphs of Emissions before and after Updates to CAFE Model and Inputs


                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       
                                       

Appendix B.  Tables of Emissions before and after Updates to CAFE Model and Inputs

                     Table 1.  Annual CO2 Emissions (mmt)
 `Year
  No Action (FEIS) 
  No Action (With Updates) 
  Change 
 Change (%)
 Preferred (FEIS)
 Preferred (With Updates)
  Change 
 Change (%)
                                                                           2017
                                                                          1,492
                                                                          1,492


                                                                          1,492
                                                                          1,492


                                                                           2018
                                                                          1,497
                                                                          1,497
                                                                            (0)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,497
                                                                          1,497
                                                                            (0)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2019
                                                                          1,493
                                                                          1,493
                                                                            (0)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,495
                                                                          1,495
                                                                            (0)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2020
                                                                          1,478
                                                                          1,478
                                                                            (0)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,481
                                                                          1,481
                                                                            (0)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2021
                                                                          1,456
                                                                          1,456
                                                                            (0)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,461
                                                                          1,461
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2022
                                                                          1,435
                                                                          1,435
                                                                            (0)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,444
                                                                          1,444
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2023
                                                                          1,415
                                                                          1,415
                                                                            (0)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,429
                                                                          1,429
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2024
                                                                          1,394
                                                                          1,394
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,414
                                                                          1,414
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2025
                                                                          1,371
                                                                          1,371
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,397
                                                                          1,397
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2026
                                                                          1,348
                                                                          1,348
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,381
                                                                          1,381
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2027
                                                                          1,327
                                                                          1,327
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,365
                                                                          1,365
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2028
                                                                          1,305
                                                                          1,305
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,350
                                                                          1,350
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2029
                                                                          1,284
                                                                          1,284
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,335
                                                                          1,335
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2030
                                                                          1,266
                                                                          1,266
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,323
                                                                          1,323
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2031
                                                                          1,250
                                                                          1,250
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,312
                                                                          1,313
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2032
                                                                          1,235
                                                                          1,236
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,303
                                                                          1,303
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2033
                                                                          1,222
                                                                          1,222
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,294
                                                                          1,294
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2034
                                                                          1,209
                                                                          1,210
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,285
                                                                          1,285
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2035
                                                                          1,198
                                                                          1,198
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,277
                                                                          1,277
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2036
                                                                          1,188
                                                                          1,188
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,270
                                                                          1,270
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2037
                                                                          1,178
                                                                          1,178
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,262
                                                                          1,262
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2038
                                                                          1,168
                                                                          1,168
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,255
                                                                          1,255
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2039
                                                                          1,159
                                                                          1,159
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,247
                                                                          1,248
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2040
                                                                          1,148
                                                                          1,149
                                                                              1
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                          1,240
                                                                          1,240
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2041
                                                                          1,138
                                                                          1,139
                                                                              1
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                          1,232
                                                                          1,233
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2042
                                                                          1,128
                                                                          1,129
                                                                              1
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                          1,225
                                                                          1,225
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2043
                                                                          1,117
                                                                          1,118
                                                                              1
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                          1,216
                                                                          1,217
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2044
                                                                          1,105
                                                                          1,107
                                                                              1
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                          1,207
                                                                          1,207
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2045
                                                                          1,093
                                                                          1,094
                                                                              1
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                          1,197
                                                                          1,197
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2046
                                                                          1,078
                                                                          1,080
                                                                              2
                                                                           0.2%
                                                                          1,185
                                                                          1,185
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2047
                                                                          1,063
                                                                          1,065
                                                                              2
                                                                           0.2%
                                                                          1,173
                                                                          1,173
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2048
                                                                          1,049
                                                                          1,051
                                                                              2
                                                                           0.2%
                                                                          1,160
                                                                          1,160
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2049
                                                                          1,034
                                                                          1,036
                                                                              2
                                                                           0.2%
                                                                          1,147
                                                                          1,147
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2050
                                                                          1,018
                                                                          1,020
                                                                              2
                                                                           0.2%
                                                                          1,134
                                                                          1,134
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%



                     Table 2.  Annual VOC Emissions (tons)
 `Year
  No Action (FEIS) 
  No Action (With Updates) 
  Change 
 Change (%)
 Preferred (FEIS)
 Preferred (With Updates)
  Change 
 Change (%)
                                                                           2017
                                                                      1,723,298
                                                                      1,723,298


                                                                      1,723,298
                                                                      1,723,298


                                                                           2018
                                                                      1,638,678
                                                                      1,638,674
                                                                            (4)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                      1,638,696
                                                                      1,638,692
                                                                            (4)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2019
                                                                      1,566,906
                                                                      1,566,905
                                                                            (2)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                      1,566,949
                                                                      1,566,945
                                                                            (4)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2020
                                                                      1,496,425
                                                                      1,496,415
                                                                           (10)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                      1,496,517
                                                                      1,496,514
                                                                            (3)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2021
                                                                      1,429,996
                                                                      1,429,989
                                                                            (7)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                      1,430,311
                                                                      1,430,315
                                                                              3
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2022
                                                                      1,369,892
                                                                      1,369,879
                                                                           (13)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                      1,370,798
                                                                      1,370,797
                                                                            (1)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2023
                                                                      1,311,998
                                                                      1,311,987
                                                                           (10)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                      1,313,471
                                                                      1,313,477
                                                                              5
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2024
                                                                      1,252,100
                                                                      1,252,102
                                                                              2
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                      1,254,895
                                                                      1,254,918
                                                                             23
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2025
                                                                      1,190,146
                                                                      1,190,142
                                                                            (4)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                      1,194,352
                                                                      1,194,390
                                                                             38
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2026
                                                                      1,127,138
                                                                      1,127,138
                                                                            (0)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                      1,133,139
                                                                      1,133,187
                                                                             48
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2027
                                                                      1,064,838
                                                                      1,064,845
                                                                              7
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                      1,072,987
                                                                      1,073,044
                                                                             57
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2028
                                                                      1,002,830
                                                                      1,002,841
                                                                             11
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                      1,013,400
                                                                      1,013,467
                                                                             67
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2029
                                                                        943,255
                                                                        943,282
                                                                             27
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        956,347
                                                                        956,420
                                                                             73
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2030
                                                                        888,735
                                                                        888,776
                                                                             41
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        904,303
                                                                        904,381
                                                                             78
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2031
                                                                        836,543
                                                                        836,601
                                                                             58
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        854,493
                                                                        854,575
                                                                             83
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2032
                                                                        786,972
                                                                        787,047
                                                                             75
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        807,167
                                                                        807,253
                                                                             86
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2033
                                                                        739,108
                                                                        739,189
                                                                             81
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        761,462
                                                                        761,577
                                                                            115
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2034
                                                                        695,044
                                                                        695,127
                                                                             83
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        719,385
                                                                        719,527
                                                                            142
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2035
                                                                        656,292
                                                                        656,361
                                                                             69
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        682,314
                                                                        682,480
                                                                            167
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2036
                                                                        623,313
                                                                        623,367
                                                                             54
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        650,922
                                                                        651,113
                                                                            191
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2037
                                                                        593,994
                                                                        594,031
                                                                             38
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        623,025
                                                                        623,234
                                                                            209
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2038
                                                                        568,445
                                                                        568,561
                                                                            116
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        598,842
                                                                        599,074
                                                                            233
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2039
                                                                        545,898
                                                                        546,083
                                                                            185
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        577,396
                                                                        577,640
                                                                            244
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2040
                                                                        525,752
                                                                        526,027
                                                                            275
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        558,415
                                                                        558,643
                                                                            228
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2041
                                                                        508,714
                                                                        509,081
                                                                            367
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        542,569
                                                                        542,781
                                                                            212
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2042
                                                                        493,947
                                                                        494,455
                                                                            508
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        528,867
                                                                        529,064
                                                                            197
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2043
                                                                        480,611
                                                                        481,250
                                                                            639
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        516,523
                                                                        516,697
                                                                            174
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2044
                                                                        468,341
                                                                        469,085
                                                                            744
                                                                           0.2%
                                                                        505,441
                                                                        505,606
                                                                            164
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2045
                                                                        456,927
                                                                        457,747
                                                                            820
                                                                           0.2%
                                                                        495,211
                                                                        495,365
                                                                            154
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2046
                                                                        445,721
                                                                        446,627
                                                                            906
                                                                           0.2%
                                                                        485,187
                                                                        485,330
                                                                            143
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2047
                                                                        435,002
                                                                        435,953
                                                                            952
                                                                           0.2%
                                                                        475,589
                                                                        475,720
                                                                            131
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2048
                                                                        425,219
                                                                        426,223
                                                                          1,004
                                                                           0.2%
                                                                        466,768
                                                                        466,889
                                                                            121
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2049
                                                                        416,082
                                                                        417,123
                                                                          1,041
                                                                           0.3%
                                                                        458,893
                                                                        459,003
                                                                            110
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2050
                                                                        407,531
                                                                        408,609
                                                                          1,077
                                                                           0.3%
                                                                        451,785
                                                                        451,873
                                                                             87
                                                                           0.0%


                     Table 2.  Annual NOx Emissions (tons)
 `Year
  No Action (FEIS) 
  No Action (With Updates) 
  Change 
 Change (%)
 Preferred (FEIS)
 Preferred (With Updates)
  Change 
 Change (%)
                                                                           2017
                                                                      1,514,411
                                                                      1,514,411


                                                                      1,514,411
                                                                      1,514,411


                                                                           2018
                                                                      1,409,122
                                                                      1,409,121
                                                                            (2)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                      1,409,107
                                                                      1,409,104
                                                                            (3)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2019
                                                                      1,309,506
                                                                      1,309,508
                                                                              2
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                      1,309,418
                                                                      1,309,416
                                                                            (2)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2020
                                                                      1,214,970
                                                                      1,214,966
                                                                            (4)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                      1,214,782
                                                                      1,214,781
                                                                            (1)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2021
                                                                      1,139,502
                                                                      1,139,503
                                                                              1
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                      1,139,221
                                                                      1,139,222
                                                                              1
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2022
                                                                      1,072,966
                                                                      1,072,965
                                                                            (2)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                      1,072,535
                                                                      1,072,530
                                                                            (5)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2023
                                                                      1,013,139
                                                                      1,013,141
                                                                              2
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                      1,012,495
                                                                      1,012,492
                                                                            (2)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2024
                                                                        954,748
                                                                        954,757
                                                                             10
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        954,170
                                                                        954,178
                                                                              9
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2025
                                                                        898,998
                                                                        899,005
                                                                              8
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        898,479
                                                                        898,498
                                                                             19
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2026
                                                                        845,069
                                                                        845,082
                                                                             14
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        844,958
                                                                        844,982
                                                                             24
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2027
                                                                        794,304
                                                                        794,326
                                                                             22
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        794,846
                                                                        794,876
                                                                             30
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2028
                                                                        744,199
                                                                        744,226
                                                                             27
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        745,590
                                                                        745,625
                                                                             35
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2029
                                                                        696,616
                                                                        696,652
                                                                             36
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        698,945
                                                                        698,984
                                                                             39
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2030
                                                                        653,848
                                                                        653,892
                                                                             43
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        657,147
                                                                        657,188
                                                                             41
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2031
                                                                        613,941
                                                                        613,994
                                                                             52
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        618,264
                                                                        618,308
                                                                             44
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2032
                                                                        577,678
                                                                        577,737
                                                                             59
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        583,013
                                                                        583,059
                                                                             46
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2033
                                                                        543,409
                                                                        543,477
                                                                             69
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        549,752
                                                                        549,803
                                                                             51
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2034
                                                                        512,336
                                                                        512,413
                                                                             77
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        519,637
                                                                        519,694
                                                                             56
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2035
                                                                        484,748
                                                                        484,828
                                                                             80
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        492,873
                                                                        492,934
                                                                             61
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2036
                                                                        461,249
                                                                        461,331
                                                                             83
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        470,101
                                                                        470,167
                                                                             66
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2037
                                                                        440,628
                                                                        440,714
                                                                             85
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        450,137
                                                                        450,209
                                                                             72
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2038
                                                                        422,814
                                                                        422,918
                                                                            104
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        432,894
                                                                        432,973
                                                                             79
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2039
                                                                        407,389
                                                                        407,508
                                                                            119
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        417,944
                                                                        418,029
                                                                             84
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2040
                                                                        394,155
                                                                        394,291
                                                                            136
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        405,088
                                                                        405,172
                                                                             84
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2041
                                                                        383,099
                                                                        383,254
                                                                            155
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        394,381
                                                                        394,465
                                                                             84
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2042
                                                                        373,574
                                                                        373,768
                                                                            193
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        385,141
                                                                        385,225
                                                                             84
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2043
                                                                        365,224
                                                                        365,450
                                                                            227
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        377,034
                                                                        377,115
                                                                             81
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2044
                                                                        358,086
                                                                        358,345
                                                                            259
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        370,238
                                                                        370,319
                                                                             80
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2045
                                                                        352,068
                                                                        352,353
                                                                            285
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        364,549
                                                                        364,627
                                                                             79
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2046
                                                                        346,770
                                                                        347,091
                                                                            321
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        359,605
                                                                        359,681
                                                                             76
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2047
                                                                        341,832
                                                                        342,176
                                                                            344
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        355,017
                                                                        355,089
                                                                             72
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2048
                                                                        337,314
                                                                        337,689
                                                                            374
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        350,847
                                                                        350,916
                                                                             69
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2049
                                                                        333,187
                                                                        333,585
                                                                            398
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        347,163
                                                                        347,229
                                                                             65
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2050
                                                                        329,326
                                                                        329,748
                                                                            422
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        343,816
                                                                        343,876
                                                                             59
                                                                           0.0%


                     Table 2.  Annual SO2 Emissions (tons)
 `Year
  No Action (FEIS) 
  No Action (With Updates) 
  Change 
 Change (%)
 Preferred (FEIS)
 Preferred (With Updates)
  Change 
 Change (%)
                                                                           2017
                                                                        183,054
                                                                        183,054


                                                                        183,054
                                                                        183,054


                                                                           2018
                                                                        172,969
                                                                        172,972
                                                                              3
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        173,007
                                                                        173,008
                                                                              1
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2019
                                                                        161,745
                                                                        161,755
                                                                             10
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        161,877
                                                                        161,878
                                                                              1
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2020
                                                                        149,286
                                                                        149,299
                                                                             14
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        149,527
                                                                        149,528
                                                                              1
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2021
                                                                        146,991
                                                                        147,005
                                                                             14
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        147,257
                                                                        147,248
                                                                           (10)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2022
                                                                        144,850
                                                                        144,865
                                                                             15
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        145,291
                                                                        145,272
                                                                           (20)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2023
                                                                        142,938
                                                                        142,955
                                                                             16
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        143,481
                                                                        143,454
                                                                           (27)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2024
                                                                        141,496
                                                                        141,525
                                                                             28
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        141,631
                                                                        141,597
                                                                           (34)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2025
                                                                        140,146
                                                                        140,184
                                                                             39
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        139,784
                                                                        139,743
                                                                           (40)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2026
                                                                        138,997
                                                                        139,050
                                                                             53
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        138,272
                                                                        138,225
                                                                           (47)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2027
                                                                        138,000
                                                                        138,066
                                                                             66
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        136,901
                                                                        136,849
                                                                           (52)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2028
                                                                        137,122
                                                                        137,201
                                                                             79
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        135,525
                                                                        135,465
                                                                           (60)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2029
                                                                        136,308
                                                                        136,389
                                                                             81
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        134,177
                                                                        134,112
                                                                           (64)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2030
                                                                        135,753
                                                                        135,835
                                                                             82
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        133,179
                                                                        133,111
                                                                           (68)
                                                                          -0.1%
                                                                           2031
                                                                        135,461
                                                                        135,541
                                                                             79
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        132,649
                                                                        132,578
                                                                           (72)
                                                                          -0.1%
                                                                           2032
                                                                        135,219
                                                                        135,296
                                                                             77
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        132,240
                                                                        132,165
                                                                           (75)
                                                                          -0.1%
                                                                           2033
                                                                        135,027
                                                                        135,113
                                                                             86
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        131,939
                                                                        131,834
                                                                          (105)
                                                                          -0.1%
                                                                           2034
                                                                        134,840
                                                                        134,939
                                                                             99
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        131,723
                                                                        131,590
                                                                          (133)
                                                                          -0.1%
                                                                           2035
                                                                        134,906
                                                                        135,032
                                                                            127
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        131,794
                                                                        131,636
                                                                          (157)
                                                                          -0.1%
                                                                           2036
                                                                        135,596
                                                                        135,749
                                                                            153
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        132,259
                                                                        132,079
                                                                          (181)
                                                                          -0.1%
                                                                           2037
                                                                        136,340
                                                                        136,519
                                                                            178
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        132,798
                                                                        132,603
                                                                          (196)
                                                                          -0.1%
                                                                           2038
                                                                        137,388
                                                                        137,475
                                                                             87
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                        133,445
                                                                        133,229
                                                                          (217)
                                                                          -0.2%
                                                                           2039
                                                                        138,438
                                                                        138,442
                                                                              4
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                        134,224
                                                                        134,000
                                                                          (224)
                                                                          -0.2%
                                                                           2040
                                                                        140,565
                                                                        140,464
                                                                          (100)
                                                                          -0.1%
                                                                        135,240
                                                                        135,035
                                                                          (204)
                                                                          -0.2%
                                                                           2041
                                                                        142,978
                                                                        142,773
                                                                          (205)
                                                                          -0.1%
                                                                        136,378
                                                                        136,192
                                                                          (185)
                                                                          -0.1%
                                                                           2042
                                                                        145,557
                                                                        145,212
                                                                          (345)
                                                                          -0.2%
                                                                        137,653
                                                                        137,486
                                                                          (166)
                                                                          -0.1%
                                                                           2043
                                                                        148,458
                                                                        147,980
                                                                          (478)
                                                                          -0.3%
                                                                        139,275
                                                                        139,133
                                                                          (142)
                                                                          -0.1%
                                                                           2044
                                                                        151,826
                                                                        151,245
                                                                          (581)
                                                                          -0.4%
                                                                        141,217
                                                                        141,088
                                                                          (130)
                                                                          -0.1%
                                                                           2045
                                                                        155,701
                                                                        155,048
                                                                          (653)
                                                                          -0.4%
                                                                        143,630
                                                                        143,512
                                                                          (118)
                                                                          -0.1%
                                                                           2046
                                                                        160,366
                                                                        159,639
                                                                          (727)
                                                                          -0.5%
                                                                        146,830
                                                                        146,724
                                                                          (106)
                                                                          -0.1%
                                                                           2047
                                                                        165,031
                                                                        164,263
                                                                          (768)
                                                                          -0.5%
                                                                        150,121
                                                                        150,026
                                                                           (95)
                                                                          -0.1%
                                                                           2048
                                                                        169,572
                                                                        168,768
                                                                          (804)
                                                                          -0.5%
                                                                        153,463
                                                                        153,379
                                                                           (84)
                                                                          -0.1%
                                                                           2049
                                                                        174,469
                                                                        173,641
                                                                          (828)
                                                                          -0.5%
                                                                        156,971
                                                                        156,897
                                                                           (73)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2050
                                                                        179,759
                                                                        178,910
                                                                          (849)
                                                                          -0.5%
                                                                        160,756
                                                                        160,703
                                                                           (53)
                                                                           0.0%


                     Table 2.  Annual PM Emissions (tons)
 `Year
  No Action (FEIS) 
  No Action (With Updates) 
  Change 
 Change (%)
 Preferred (FEIS)
 Preferred (With Updates)
  Change 
 Change (%)
                                                                           2017
                                                                         42,098
                                                                         42,098


                                                                         42,098
                                                                         42,098


                                                                           2018
                                                                         40,555
                                                                         40,555
                                                                            (0)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         40,557
                                                                         40,557
                                                                            (0)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2019
                                                                         38,965
                                                                         38,965
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         38,973
                                                                         38,973
                                                                            (0)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2020
                                                                         37,354
                                                                         37,354
                                                                            (0)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         37,370
                                                                         37,370
                                                                            (0)
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2021
                                                                         36,080
                                                                         36,080
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         36,111
                                                                         36,111
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2022
                                                                         34,959
                                                                         34,959
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         35,023
                                                                         35,023
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2023
                                                                         33,973
                                                                         33,974
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         34,072
                                                                         34,072
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2024
                                                                         32,965
                                                                         32,966
                                                                              1
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         33,109
                                                                         33,109
                                                                              0
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2025
                                                                         32,168
                                                                         32,169
                                                                              1
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         32,358
                                                                         32,359
                                                                              1
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2026
                                                                         31,372
                                                                         31,374
                                                                              2
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         31,613
                                                                         31,614
                                                                              1
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2027
                                                                         30,624
                                                                         30,626
                                                                              2
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         30,920
                                                                         30,921
                                                                              1
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2028
                                                                         29,831
                                                                         29,834
                                                                              3
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         30,187
                                                                         30,188
                                                                              1
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2029
                                                                         29,058
                                                                         29,061
                                                                              3
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         29,475
                                                                         29,476
                                                                              2
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2030
                                                                         28,496
                                                                         28,500
                                                                              4
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         28,971
                                                                         28,972
                                                                              2
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2031
                                                                         27,981
                                                                         27,985
                                                                              4
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         28,513
                                                                         28,515
                                                                              2
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2032
                                                                         27,517
                                                                         27,521
                                                                              5
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         28,104
                                                                         28,106
                                                                              2
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2033
                                                                         27,023
                                                                         27,028
                                                                              5
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         27,664
                                                                         27,667
                                                                              3
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2034
                                                                         26,573
                                                                         26,578
                                                                              5
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         27,264
                                                                         27,268
                                                                              3
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2035
                                                                         26,169
                                                                         26,175
                                                                              5
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         26,904
                                                                         26,908
                                                                              4
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2036
                                                                         25,796
                                                                         25,802
                                                                              5
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         26,569
                                                                         26,573
                                                                              4
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2037
                                                                         25,448
                                                                         25,453
                                                                              5
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         26,255
                                                                         26,260
                                                                              5
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2038
                                                                         25,088
                                                                         25,095
                                                                              7
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         25,927
                                                                         25,933
                                                                              6
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2039
                                                                         24,766
                                                                         24,773
                                                                              8
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         25,632
                                                                         25,639
                                                                              6
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2040
                                                                         24,468
                                                                         24,477
                                                                              9
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         25,360
                                                                         25,367
                                                                              6
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2041
                                                                         24,174
                                                                         24,185
                                                                             11
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                         25,092
                                                                         25,099
                                                                              6
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2042
                                                                         23,902
                                                                         23,917
                                                                             14
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                         24,844
                                                                         24,851
                                                                              6
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2043
                                                                         23,634
                                                                         23,651
                                                                             17
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                         24,598
                                                                         24,604
                                                                              6
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2044
                                                                         23,361
                                                                         23,381
                                                                             20
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                         24,358
                                                                         24,364
                                                                              6
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2045
                                                                         23,094
                                                                         23,116
                                                                             22
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                         24,123
                                                                         24,129
                                                                              6
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2046
                                                                         22,833
                                                                         22,858
                                                                             25
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                         23,896
                                                                         23,902
                                                                              6
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2047
                                                                         22,574
                                                                         22,600
                                                                             26
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                         23,671
                                                                         23,676
                                                                              6
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2048
                                                                         22,321
                                                                         22,350
                                                                             28
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                         23,451
                                                                         23,457
                                                                              5
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2049
                                                                         22,071
                                                                         22,101
                                                                             30
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                         23,243
                                                                         23,248
                                                                              5
                                                                           0.0%
                                                                           2050
                                                                         21,816
                                                                         21,847
                                                                             31
                                                                           0.1%
                                                                         23,036
                                                                         23,040
                                                                              5
                                                                           0.0%




