	To:

Cortney_Higgins@omb.eop.gov, 

Cc:

Kevin Culligan/DC/USEPA/US@EPA, Nick Hutson/RTP/USEPA/US@EPA,
fellner.christian@epa.gov, johnson.mary@epa.gov 

Bcc:

Subject:

EGU GHG NSPS - Submittal #1

From:

RobertJ Wayland/RTP/USEPA/US - Tuesday 01/24/2012 04:51 PM

 



Cortney -

This is the first of several emails I'm going to send over tonight,
which contains materials requested and/or discussed in recent phone
conversations with OMB.  Please let me/Kevin know if you have any
questions.

thanx!

bob

Robert J. Wayland, Ph.D.

Leader, Energy Strategies Group

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Office of Air Quality Planning & Standards

Sector Policies and Programs Division

Mail Code D243-01

RTP, NC  27711

 

Phone:  (919) 541-1045

Cell:       (919) 306-2290

Fax:       (919) 541-5450

e-mail:    wayland.robertj@epa.gov

*********************************************************

DRAFT/Deliberative Document -- FOIA Exempt

*********************************************************

Sensitivities to Test Robustness of Assumptions about no Coal in Future
Cases:

 

In follow up to questions from the interagency group, we have run
several sensitivities.  We looked at a higher demand case, a higher gas
price case (because of less shale gas), a combined higher case.  We did
not see coal in any of those cases in 2020.  In the combined case, we
did see some coal in 2030.  This did not result in annual costs in
either 2020 or 2030 becuase there was no very little difference in the
cost of a coal unit or gas unit in that time frame.  It would only be
in years past 2030 where there would be any cost.

 

We did not run a sensitivity looking at cases where there was no concern
about CO2 emissions in the future (one of the cases when EIA did see
more coal) becuase we do not believe that is a reasonable policy
scenario.  Similarly, we saw no substantiation for lower capital cost
for coal units.  We have also included a graphic that illustrates the
cost of coal with the adder to represent uncertainty about CO2 policy. 
You can see, that this shows that a gas price above $9.00 would be
needed to support new coal.

Sensitivity Summary NSPS_1-23-12.pptx  

