MEMORANDUM: Recovered HCFC-22 Available to Meet Servicing Needs

This memorandum provides the estimated quantities of HCFC-22 (R-22) that can be recovered between 2012 and 2020 under the current assumptions in the Vintaging Model (VM), as well as the estimated quantities if the model is adjusted to reflect the assumption that 100 percent of refrigerant is recovered at disposal (i.e., a 0% loss rate at the end-of-life). The assumptions used for these estimates are also provided.
                               *   *   *   *   *
Table 1 provides projected R-22 servicing need, estimated R-22 recovery based on the current Vintaging Model recovery rates, and estimated R-22 recovery assuming a 100% recovery rate. 
Table 1: Projected R-22 Servicing Need and Estimated R-22 Recovery Under Two Scenarios, 2012-2020 (in MT) 
 
                                                                           2012
                                                                           2013
                                                                           2014
                                                                           2015
                                                                           2016
                                                                           2017
                                                                           2018
                                                                           2019
                                                                           2020
R-22 Servicing Need
                                                                        56,257 
                                                                        51,190 
                                                                        45,912 
                                                                        40,767 
                                                                        36,256 
                                                                        31,697 
                                                                        27,285 
                                                                        22,798 
                                                                        18,061 
Estimated R-22 Recovery[a]
                                                                        19,329 
                                                                        20,596 
                                                                        21,396 
                                                                        21,644 
                                                                        20,733 
                                                                        21,101 
                                                                        21,075 
                                                                        21,475 
                                                                        22,042 
Estimated R-22 Recovery (0% Loss Rate at end-of-life)[b]
                                                                        35,344 
                                                                        38,652 
                                                                        40,510 
                                                                        41,833 
                                                                        40,097 
                                                                        42,009 
                                                                        41,016 
                                                                        42,781 
                                                                        46,264 
 Source: EPA's Vintaging Model (VM IO file_v4.4_3.23.12). 
[a] The amount of R-22 that is recovered is based on the current VM's end-of-life assumptions, as shown in Table 2.
[b] The amount of R-22 recovered at end-of-life is based on a zero percent loss rate at disposal. 

Table 2 lists the assumptions used to develop the projections provided in Table 1. This table is similar in structure to Table A-1 of the Servicing Tail Report (STR). To that end, red font denotes assumptions that have changed in the model since completion of that report in December 2009 (see http://go.usa.gov/rn4W). Additionally, since completion of the STR, "R-22 Medium Retail Food" has been reconfigured into two smaller end-use categories, "R-22 Large Condensing Units" and "R-22 Small Condensing Units". The table shows the historical end-use category in gray font, for reference purposes only.
                Table 2. Input Assumptions, Years 2005 to 2020
                                    Current
                                  Refrigerant
                               Equipment Type and
                            Original ODS Refrigerant
                                    Charge
                                    Size[a]
                                     Loss
                                    Rate[b]
                                    Growth
                                    Rate[c]
                                   Recovery
                                    Rate[d]
                                   Lifetime
                                    (Years)
                                 AC Equipment
                                       
                                     R-22
                                       
 R-22 Residential Unitary A/C (2005-
 2006)
                                       
                                       3
                                       
                                     13.6%
                                       
                                     0.8%
                                       
                                      35%
                                       
                                      15
                                     R-22
 R-22 Residential Unitary A/C (2006- 2020)
                                       5
                                     13.6%
                                     0.8%
                                      35%
                                      15
                                     R-22
 R-22 Small Commercial Unitary AC
                                       8
                                      11%
                                     2.5%
                                      40%
                                      15
                                     R-22
 R-22 Large Commercial Unitary AC
                                      15
                                      10%
                                     2.5%
                                      40%
                                      15
                                     R-22
 R-22 Water & Ground Source Heat Pumps
                                       4
                                      5%
                                     0.8%
                                      57%
                                      20
                                     R-22
 R-22 Dehumidifiers
                                       0
                                      1%
                                     0.2%
                                      50%
                                      11
                                     R-22
 R-22 Packaged Terminal Units
                                       1
                                      5%
                                     0.8%
                                      35%
                                      12
                                     R-22
 R-22 Window Units
                                       1
                                      1%
                                     5.0%
                                      50%
                                      12
                                     R-22
 R-12 School & Tour Buses
                                       5
                                      10%
                                     2.6%
                                      50%
                                      12
                                     R-22
 R-22 Transit Buses
                                       8
                                      44%
                                     2.6%
                                      50%
                                      12
                                     R-22
 R-22 Trains
                                      22
                                      44%
                                     2.6%
                                      50%
                                       5
                                     R-22
 R-11 Centrifugal Chillers 
 
                                      700
                                      5%
                                     0.5%
                                      80%
                                      25
                                     R-22
 R-12 Centrifugal Chillers
                                      721
                                       
                                      5%
                                       
                                     0.5%
                                      80%
                                      27
                                     R-22
 Reciprocating Chillers
                                      230
                                       
                                      1%
                                       
                                     0.2%
                                       
                                      80%
                                      20
                                     R-22
 Screw Chillers
                                      300
                                       
                                      1%
                                       
                                     0.5%
                                      80%
                                      20
                                     R-22
 Scroll Chillers
 
                                      240
                                       
                                      1%
                                       
                                     0.5%
                                      80%
                                      20
                                     R-22
 R-500 Chillers
                                      926
                                      5%
                                     0.5%
                                      80%
                                      27
                                           Refrigeration Equipment
                                     R-22
                                       
 R-12 Cold Storage
 
                                   <0.01
                                      20%
                                     2.5%
                                      80%
                                      20
                                     R-22
                                       
 R-22 Cold Storage
 
                                   <0.01
                                      20%
                                       
                                     2.5%
                                      80%
                                      20
                                     R-22
                                       
 R-502 Cold Storage
 
                                   <0.01
                                      20%
                                       
                                     2.5%
                                      80%
                                      20
                                     R-502
 R-502 Cold Storage
                                   <0.01
                                      25%
                                     2.5%
                                      80%
                                      20
                                     R-22
 R-12 Large Retail Food 
                                   1,800[e]
                                      30%
                                     0.8%
                                      80%
                                      18
                                     R-502
 R-12 Large Retail Food
                                     1,800
                                      33%
                                     0.8%
                                      80%
                                      18
                                     R-502
 R-502 Large Retail Food
                                     1,800
                                      33%
                                     0.8%
                                      80%
                                      18
                                     R-22
 R-502 Large Retail Food
                                     1,800
                                      30%
                                     0.8%
                                      80%
                                      18
                                     R-22
 R-22 Medium Retail Food
                                       3
                                      8%
                                     1.7%
                                      80%
                                      18
                                     R-22
 R-22 Large Condensing Units (Medium Retail Food)
                                      20
                                      15%
                                     0.8%
                                      80%
                                      20
                                     R-22
 R-22 Small Condensing Units (Medium Retail Food)
                                       3
                                      8%
                                     0.8%
                                      80%
                                      20
                                     R-22
 R-12 Small Retail Food
                                       1
                                      1%
                                     0.8%
                                      35%
                                      20
                                     R-22
 R-12 Transport
                                       8
                                      28%
                                     2.5%
                                      35%
                                       
                                      12
                                    R-402A
 R-12 Transport
 
                                       8
                                      28%
                                       
                                     2.5%
                                      35%
                                      12
                                    R-401A
 R-502 Transport
 
                                       8
                                      28%
                                       
                                     2.5%
                                      10%
                                      12
                                     R-502
 R-502 Transport
                                       8
                                      33%
                                     2.5%
                                      10%
                                      12
                                     R-22
 R-11 Industrial Process Refrigeration 
                                      952
                                      10%
                                     2.5%
                                      80%
                                      25
                                     R-22
                                       
 R-12 Industrial Process Refrigeration
                                      992
                                       
                                      10%
                                       
                                     2.5%
                                      80%
                                       
                                      25
                                    R-401A
                                       
 R-12 Industrial Process Refrigeration
 
                                      850
                                       
                                      5%
                                     2.5%
                                      90%
                                       
                                      25
                                     R-22
 R-22 Industrial Process Refrigeration
                                     9,100
                                      12%
                                     2.5%
                                      80%
                                      25
Source: EPA's Vintaging Model (VM IO file_v4.4_3.23.12). 
[a] Charge size presented in kilograms. Cold storage charge size presented in kilograms/cubic foot.
[b] The loss rates represent the percent of the total charge that leaks in a given year plus the amount, on an annual basis, emitted at service. This is expressed as a percentage of total chemical charge.
[c] The growth rate applies to new consumption/virgin manufacture for products entering the market. The growth rate refers to the growth of the equipment market for each end-use as a whole and is not specific to the refrigerant. For example, the growth rate for unitary AC units from 2006 to 2020 includes both R-22 and R-410A from 2006 to 2009 and applies to 410A units only (due to the R-22 new equipment manufacturing ban) between 2010 and 2020.
[d] To adjust the model to assume a scenario in which 100% of refrigerant in equipment is recovered at disposal, all inputs in this column were changed to 100%. All other inputs remained the same to run this model scenario. 
[e] For CFC-12 Large retail food, a new vintage of R-22 has been added to the model that begins in 2000. This vintage has a charge size of 1,360, but all other values are the same as the original R-22 vintage (with a 1,800 charge size).


