Memo

To:	Docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2010

From:	Zoltan Jung, U.S. EPA-OTAQ-ASD

CC:	Ed Nam, U.S. EPA-OTAQ-ASD

Date:	Thursday, August 9, 2012

Re:	IPM Light-duty Vehicle Input Data 

HEV new car registrations were obtained for 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009
model years for the top 15 metropolitan areas, the top 15 states within
the United States and for the United States as a whole for each HEV
model sold during those model years.  The data was published as part of
the “Hybrid Market Dashboard” jointly developed by R.L. Polk, an
automotive data firm, and Hybrid Cars, an on-line hybrid vehicle news
outlet. This data was last accessed on the internet on February 3, 2010,
at the following URL:    <http://www.hybridcars.com>

Total vehicle registration data for all light-duty vehicles by model
year was obtained for each U.S. state via electronic subscription to
Ward’s Automotive Group, a division of Penton Media. The data included
2005, 2006 and 2007 model year vehicles in the fleet at the end of the
2008 calendar year.  Both total vehicle registrations and HEV
registrations were distributed into IPM regions using 2008 U.S. Census
data.

Analysis of the sales data showed that higher HEV sales were roughly
correlated to both California and the additional 10 states that had
adopted the California ZEV Program under Section 177 of the Clean Air
Act (California, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, New
Jersey, New York, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont).  HEV
sales were also higher in larger metropolitan statistical areas (MSA). 
HEV marketing and sales to these areas by vehicle manufacturers were
used to obtain partial ZEV credit under the California ZEV Program.  An
assumption was made that future EV and PHEV sales would follow the
correlation of higher sales in California and the 10 additional states
adopting ZEV under Section 177 to fulfill future ZEV vehicle sales
requirements.  Considering range and utility, it was also assumed that
future EV and PHEV sales would roughly correlate to the top 40 MSAs
within the U.S.  

EV and PHEV sales scenarios were built by distributing sales to the IPM
regions based on previous HEV sales.  EV and PHEV sales were distributed
solely to the California and ZEV/Section 177 states and to the top 40
U.S. MSAs.

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