EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162

NHTSA-2010-XXXX

Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis:

Proposed Rulemaking to Establish Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and
Fuel Efficiency Standards for Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles

Office of Transportation and Air Quality

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

and

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1: INDUSTRY CHARACTERIZATION

1.1	Introduction: 	1-3

1.2	Truck Classes	1-8

1.3	Medium- and Heavy-Duty Truck Segments	1-10

1.4	Operations	1-16

1.5	Tire Manufacturers	1-28

1.6	Current U.S. and international GHG voluntary actions and regulations
1-32

1.7	Trailers	1-35

1.8	Hybrids	1-39

CHAPTER 2: TECHNOLOGIES, COST, AND EFFECTIVENESS

2.1	Overview of Technologies	2-3

2.2	Overview of Technology Cost Methodology	2-4

2.3	Heavy Duty Pickup Truck and Van Technologies and Costs	2-11

2.4	Heavy Duty Engines	2-21

2.5	Class 7/8 Day Cabs and Sleeper Cabs	2-35

2.6	Class 2b-8 Vocational Trucks	2-63

2.7	Air Conditioning	2-74

2.8	Trailers and GHG Emission Reduction Opportunities	2-78

2.9	Other Fuel Consumption and GHG Reducing Strategies	2-82

2.9.1	Auxiliaries	2-82

2.10	Summary of Technology Costs Used in this Analysis	2-89

CHAPTER 3: TEST PROCEDURES

3.1	Heavy Duty Engine Test Procedure	3-2

3.2	Aerodynamic Assessment	3-6

3.3	Tire Rolling Resistance	3-21

3.4	Drive cycle	3-22

3.5	Tare Weights and Payload	3-26

3.6	Heavy Duty Chassis Test Procedure	3-30

3.7	Hybrid Powertrain Test Procedures	3-31

3.8	Light Heavy Duty Chassis Test Procedure	3-39

CHAPTER 4: VEHICLE SIMULATION MODEL

4.1	Purpose and Scope	4-2

4.2	Model Code Description	4-3

4.3	Feasibility of Using a Model to Simulate Testing	4-5

4.4	EPA and NHTSA Vehicle Compliance Model	4-6

4.5	Application of Model for Certification	4-15

CHAPTER 5: EMISSIONS IMPACTS

5.1	Executive Summary	5-2

5.2	Introduction	5-2

5.3	Program Analysis and Modeling Methods	5-4

5.4	Greenhouse Gas Emission Impacts	5-7

5.5	Non-Greenhouse Gas Emission Impacts	5-7

5.6	Assessment of the Impact of Credit Programs	5-9

CHAPTER 6: RESULTS OF PROPOSED AND ALTERNATIVE STANDARDS

6.1	What are the alternatives that the agencies considered?	6-2

6.2	How do these alternatives compare in overall GHG emissions
reductions and fuel efficiency and cost?	6-9

CHAPTER 7: TRUCK COSTS AND COSTS PER TON OF GHG EMISSIONS REDUCED

7.1	Costs Associated with the Proposed Program	7-2

7.2	Cost per Ton of GHG Emissions Reduced	7-5

7.3	Impacts of Reduction in Fuel Consumption	7-6

CHAPTER 8:  HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

8.1	Health and Environmental Effects of Non-GHG Pollutants	8-2

8.2	Air Quality Impacts of Non-GHG Pollutants	8-35

8.3	Quantified and Monetized Non-GHG Health and Environmental Impacts
8-40

8.4	Changes in Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations, Global Mean Temperature,
Sea Level Rise, and Ocean pH Associated with the Proposal’s GHG
Emissions Reductions	8-46

8.5	Monetized CO2 Impacts	8-52

CHAPTER 9: ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACTS

9.1	Framework for Benefits and Costs	9-2

9.2	Rebound Effect	9-3

9.3	Other Economic Impacts	9-12

9.4	The Effect of Safety Standards and Voluntary Safety Improvements on
Vehicle Weight	9-17

9.5	Petroleum and energy security impacts	9-21

9.6	Summary of Benefits and Costs	9-32

9.7	Economy Wide Impacts	9-35

CHAPTER 10: SMALL BUSINESS FLEXIBILITY ANALYSIS

	

List of Acronyms

$2,005 	U.S. Dollars in calendar year 2005

µg	Microgram

µg/m3	Microgram per Cubic Meter

µm	Micrometers

AC	Alternating Current

ACES	Advanced Collaborative Emission Study

APU	Auxiliary Power Unit

AQCD	Air Quality Criteria Document

ASPEN	Assessment System for Population Exposure Nationwide 

ATA	American Trucking Association

ATRI	Alliance for Transportation Research Institute

avg	Average

BAC	Battery Air Conditioning

BenMAP	Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program

bhp	Brake Horsepower

bhp-hrs	Brake Horsepower Hours

BTS	Bureau of Transportation 

BTU	British Thermal Unit

CAA	Clean Air Act

CAE	Computer Aided Engineering

CAFE	Corporate Average Fuel Economy

CARB	California Air Resources Board 

CCP	Coupled Cam Phasing

Cd	Coefficient of Drag

CDC	Centers for Disease Control

CFD	Computational Fluid Dynamics

CFR	Code of Federal Regulations

CH4	Methane

CILCC	Combined International Local and Commuter Cycle

CITT	Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology

CMAQ	Community Multiscale Air Quality

CO	Carbon Monoxide

CO2	Carbon Dioxide

COI	Cost of Illness

COPD	Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

CoV	Coefficient of Variation

CRGNSA	Columbia River Gorge National Scenic Area

CSI	Cambridge Systematics Inc.

CVD	Cardiovascular Disease

DE	Diesel Exhaust

DEAC	Cylinder Deactiviation

DEF	Diesel Exhaust Fluid

DHHS	U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

DOC	Diesel Oxidation Catalyst

DOE	Department of Energy

DOT	Department of Transportation

DPF	Diesel Particulate Filter

DPM	Diesel Particulate Matter

DR	Discount Rate

DRIA	Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis

EC	Elemental Carbon

ED	Emergency Department

EGR	Exhaust Gas Recirculation

EIA	Energy Information Administration (part of the U.S. Department of
Energy)

EMS-HAP	Emissions Modeling System for Hazardous Air Pollution

EO	Executive Order

EPA	Environmental Protection Agency

EPS	Electric Power Steering

EPS	Electrified Parking Spaces

ERG	Eastern Research Group

EV	Electric Vehicle

F	Frequency

FHWA	Federal Highway Administration

FIA	Forest Inventory and Analysis

FOH	Fuel Operated Heater

FR	Federal Register

g	Gram 

gal	Gallon

GDP	Gross Domestic Product

GEOS	Goddard Earth Observing System

GHG	Greenhouse Gases

GIFT	Geospatial Intermodal Freight Transportation

GUI	Graphical User Interface

GVW	Gross Vehicle Weight Rating

GWP	Global Warming Potential

HAD	Diesel Health Assessment Document

HC	Hydrocarbon

HD	Heavy-Duty

HDUDDS	Heavy Duty Urban Dynamometer Driving Cycle

HEI	Health Effects Institute 

HES	Health Effects Subcommittee 

HEV	Hybrid Electric Vehicle

HFET	Highway Fuel Economy Dynamometer Procedure

hp	Horsepower

hrs	Hours

HSC	High Speed Cruise Duty Cycle

HTUF	Hybrid Truck User Forum

hz	Hertz

IARC	International Agency for Research on Cancer

ICCT	International Council on Clean Transport

ICD	International Classification of Diseases

ICF	ICF International

IMPROVE	Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments

IRIS	Integrated Risk Information System

ISA	Integrated Science Assessment

JAMA	Journal of the American Medical Association

k	Thousand

kg	Kilogram

km	Kilometer

kW	Kilowatt

L 	Liter

lb	Pound

LD	Light-Duty

LSC 	Low Speed Cruise Duty Cycle

m2	Square Meters

m3	Cubic Meters

MD	Medium-Duty

mg	Milligram

mi	mile

min	Minute

MM	Million

MOVES	Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator

mpg	Miles per Gallon

mph	Miles per Hour

MSAT	Mobile Source Air Toxic

MY	Model Year

N2O	Nitrous Oxide

NA 	Not Applicable

NAAQS	National Ambient Air Quality Standards

NAICS	North American Industry Classification System 

NAS	National Academy of Sciences

NATA	National Air Toxic Assessment 

NCAR	National Center for Atmospheric Research

NCI	National Cancer Institute

NCLAN	National Crop Loss Assessment Network

NEC	Net Energy Change Tolerance

NEI	National Emissions Inventory

NESCCAF	Northeast States Center for a Clean Air Future

NESHAP	National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants

NHTSA	National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

NiMH	Nickel Metal-Hydride

NIOSH	National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health

NMHC	Nonmethane Hydrocarbons

NMMAPS	National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study

NO	Nitrogen Oxide

NO2	Nitrogen Dioxide

NOAA	National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 

NOx	Oxides of Nitrogen

NPRM	Notice of Proposed Rulemaking

NPV	Net Present Value

NRC	National Research Council

NVH	Noise Vibration and Harshness

O&M	Operating and maintenance

O3	Ozone

OAQPS	Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards

OC	Organic Carbon

OE	Original Equipment

OEHHA 	Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment

OEM	Original Equipment Manufacturer

OHV	Overhead Valve

OMB	Office of Management and Budget

ORD	EPA's Office of Research and Development

OTAQ	Office of Transportation and Air Quality

Pa	Pascal

PAH	Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons

PEMS	Portable Emissions Monitoring System

PHEV	Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles

PM	Particulate Matter

PM10	Coarse Particulate Matter (diameter of 10 µm or less)

PM2.5	Fine Particulate Matter (diameter of 2.5 µm or less)

POM	Polycyclic Organic Matter

ppb	Parts per Billion

ppm	Parts per Million

psi	Pounds per Square Inch

PTO	Power Take Off

R&D	Research and Development

RBM	Resisting Bending Moment

RESS	Rechargeable Energy Storage System

RfC	Reference Concentration

RIA	Regulatory Impact Analysis

rpm	Revolutions per Minute

RRc	Rolling Resistance Coefficient

SAB	Science Advisory Board

SAB-HES	Science Advisory Board - Health Effects Subcommittee

SAE	Society of Automotive Engineers

SBA	Small Business Administration

SBAR	Small Business Advocacy Review

SBREFA	Small Business Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act

SCC	Social Cost of Carbon

SCR	Selective Catalyst Reduction

SER	Small Entity Representation

SGDI	Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct INjection

SIDI	Spark Ignition Direct Injection

SO2	Sulfur Dioxide

SOC	State of Charge

SOHC	Single Overhead Cam

SOx	Oxides of Sulfur

STB	Surface Transportation Board

SUV	Sport Utility Vehicle

SVOC	Semi-Volatile Organic Compound

TIAX	TIAX LLC

TRU	Trailer Refrigeration Unit

TSD	Technical Support Document

TSS	Thermal Storage

U/DAF	Upward and Downward Adjustment Factor

UCT	Urban Creep and Transient Duty Cycle

UFP	Ultra Fine Particles

USDA	United States Department of Agriculture

UV	Ultraviolet

UV-b	Ultraviolet-b

VIUS	Vehicle Inventory Use Survey

VMT	Vehicle Miles Travelled

VOC	Volatile Organic Compound

VSL	Value of Statistical Life

VVT	Variable Valve Timing

WTP	Willingness-to-Pay

WTVC	World Wide Transient Vehicle Cycle

WVU	West Virginia University



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