Ron Evans/RTP/USEPA/US 

05/07/2008 12:50 PM

	

To

"King, Heidi R." <Heidi_R._King@omb.eop.gov>

cc

fann.neal@epa.gov, Kathy Kaufman/RTP/USEPA/US@EPA, Brian Heninger,
simon.nathalie@epa.gov, Lydia Wegman, Charles Fulcher/RTP/USEPA/US@EPA,
Tricia Crabtree/RTP/USEPA/US@EPA

Subject

Fw: Quick rollback discussion









Here is the spreadsheet I promised earlier.   There is a one page fax
coming with some summary numbers in pencil to show the difference
between the estimates in the RIA and those which are a closer match to
the specific controls.

----- Forwarded by Ron Evans/RTP/USEPA/US on 05/07/2008 12:46 PM -----

Charles Fulcher/RTP/USEPA/US 

05/07/2008 12:43 PM

	

To

Ron Evans/RTP/USEPA/US

cc

Neal Fann/RTP/USEPA/US

Subject

Quick rollback discussion









Ron,

Attached you should find a spreadsheet that compares the rollback values
to the levels obtained when identified and unidentified controls are
applied. The first sheet compares the values for the 36 monitors used in
the cost analysis. It also shows the ratio of the "actual" value to the
full attainment rollback value. This ratio was used as the input to a
VNA interpolation that calculated an adjustment factor for all census
tracts used in our analysis. The ratio was applied to the 188
Pb-Speciating TSP monitors, and the resulting 2nd Max Monthly Values for
each standard level were used in an additional VNA interpolation to
arrive at a value for each census tract. 

The sheet also contains a comparison of the resulting IQ decrements and
valuation for Cuyahoga County, OH when the full-attainment rollback
values are used versus the actual-attainment-adjusted values. In this
case, you can see that we didn't roll back far enough for .3, so the
benefits are larger in the actual-attainment case. However, for both the
.1 and .05 levels, we overestimated benefits since the areas didn't
actually get to the level to which we rolled back.

I apologize for the haste with which this was prepared and I hope I have
been reasonably clear.

Charlie 

-----

Charles Fulcher, Economist 

Air Benefit & Cost Group

U.S. EPA/OAR/OAQPS/HEID (C439-02)

Research Triangle Park, NC 27711

Tel:  (919) 541-2774

Fax: (919) 541-0839

