"Schwab, Margo" <Margo_Schwab@omb.eop.gov> 

07/13/2007 01:17 PM

	

To

Marjorie Jones/RTP/USEPA/US@EPA, "Johansson, Robert"
<Robert_C._Johansson@omb.eop.gov>

cc

Ron Evans/RTP/USEPA/US@EPA, Lisa Conner/RTP/USEPA/US@EPA

Subject

RE: Your proposed footnote language on PM expert elicitation









 

We are fine with these edits.  The footnote is needed because this

paragraph is in Chapter 8, whereas the discussion of the elicitation is

in Chapter 6.  By the same token, the last sentence is needed so that

readers know why you are referring to Experts E and K - as in, why these

experts?  By saying they represent the bounds on the range of the 12 you

are providing that information.  I think that it is clearer to say

succinctly state that one is the weakest and one is the strongest than

to explain the concept of bounding and what is being bounded in a

footnote.

Margo Schwab

 

Statistical and Science Policy

Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs

Office of Management and Budget

Email:  mschwab@omb.eop.gov

Phone:  202 395 5647

-----Original Message-----

From: Jones.Marjorie@epamail.epa.gov

[mailto:Jones.Marjorie@epamail.epa.gov] 

Sent: Thursday, July 12, 2007 1:00 PM

To: Johansson, Robert

Cc: Schwab, Margo; Evans.Ron@epamail.epa.gov;

Conner.Lisa@epamail.epa.gov

Subject: Your proposed footnote language on PM expert elicitation 

Margo/Rob:

Attached below, pls find Lisa Conner's recommended edits to the language

you asked us to add to the footnote.

Our question about the last sentence is:  why is it needed?

FN #3: As discussed in Chapter 6, one way in which we characterize the

model uncertainty associated with the relationship between particulate

matter and premature mortality was to conduct an expert elicitation.

The elicitation yielded twelve different functions, generated by asking

12 experts a structured set of questions, leading each to articulate a

functional form for the relationship, in a probabilistic estimate of

uncertainty.  Among the twelve experts, Expert K's function

characterizes the weakest relationship between PM and premature

mortality, whereas Expert E's function characterizes the strongest

relationship.

Marjorie C. Jones

Office of Air Quality Planning & Standards Air Benefit and Cost Group,

Mail Code C439-02 Health and Environmental Impacts Division RTP, NC

27711

voice: (919) 541-2508

fax:     (919) 541-0839

Shipping/receiving: 4930 Old Page Rd.

Durham, NC 27709

