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Subject:  RE: Your proposed footnote language on PM expert elicitation
PostedDate:  07/13/2007 02:30:12 PM
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Thread_Topic:  Your proposed footnote language on PM expert elicitation
Thread_Index:  AcfEpgxDAPvJFCnHT5eM9lPktbJb/AA1Vq4Q
From:  "Schwab, Margo" <Margo_Schwab@omb.eop.gov>
SendTo:  Marjorie Jones/RTP/USEPA/US@EPA
CopyTo:  Ron Evans/RTP/USEPA/US@EPA,"Johansson, Robert" <Robert_C._Johansson@omb.eop.gov>
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Marjorie: Here is the UVB 1st paragraph, as requested.

Atmospheric ozone absorbs a harmful band of ultraviolet radiation from
the sun called UV-B, providing a protective shield to the Earth's
surface.  The majority of this protection occurs in the stratosphere
where 90% of atmospheric ozone is located.  The remaining 10% of the
Earth's ozone is present at ground level (referred to as tropospheric
ozone) (NAS, 1991; NASA ).  Only  a portion of the tropospheric fraction
of UV-B shielding is from anthropogenic sources (e.g., power plants,
byproducts of combustion). The portion of ground level ozone associated
with anthropogenic sources varies by locality and over time.  Even so,
it is reasonable to assume that reductions in ground level ozone would
lead to increases in the same health effects linked to in UV-B
exposures.  These effects include fatal and nonfatal melanoma and
non-melanoma skin cancers and cataracts.   The values of $15,000 per
case for non-fatal melanoma skin cancer, $5,000 per case for non-fatal
non-melanoma skin cancer, and $15,000 per case of cataracts have been
used in analyses of stratospheric ozone depletion (U.S. EPA, 1999.
Fatal cancers are valued using standard VSL estimates.  UV-B has also
been linked to ecological effects including damage to crops and forest.
For a more complete listing of quantified and unquantified UV-B
radiation effects, see Table G-4 and G-7 in the Benefits and Costs of
the Clean Air Act, 1990-2010 (U.S. EPA, 1999.  UV-B related health
effects are also discussed in the context of stratospheric ozone in a
2006 report by ICF Consulting, prepared for the U.S. EPA .

Margo Schwab

Statistical and Science Policy
Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs
Office of Management and Budget
Email:  mschwab@omb.eop.gov
Phone:  202 395 5647

-----Original Message-----
From: Jones.Marjorie@epamail.epa.gov
[mailto:Jones.Marjorie@epamail.epa.gov]
Sent: Thursday, July 12, 2007 1:00 PM
To: Johansson, Robert
Cc: Schwab, Margo; Evans.Ron@epamail.epa.gov;
Conner.Lisa@epamail.epa.gov
Subject: Your proposed footnote language on PM expert elicitation

Margo/Rob:

Attached below, pls find Lisa Conner's recommended edits to the language
you asked us to add to the footnote.
Our question about the last sentence is:  why is it needed?



FN #3: As discussed in Chapter 6, one way in which we characterize the
model uncertainty associated with the relationship between particulate
matter and premature mortality was to conduct an expert elicitation.
The elicitation yielded twelve different functions, generated by asking
12 experts a structured set of questions, leading each to articulate a
functional form for the relationship, in a probabilistic estimate of
uncertainty.  Among the twelve experts, Expert K's function
characterizes the weakest relationship between PM and premature
mortality, whereas Expert E's function characterizes the strongest
relationship.

Marjorie C. Jones
Office of Air Quality Planning & Standards Air Benefit and Cost Group,
Mail Code C439-02 Health and Environmental Impacts Division RTP, NC
27711
voice: (919) 541-2508
fax:     (919) 541-0839

Shipping/receiving: 4930 Old Page Rd.
Durham, NC 27709




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Subject:  RE: Your proposed footnote language on PM expert elicitation
PostedDate:  07/13/2007 01:17:54 PM
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Thread_Topic:  Your proposed footnote language on PM expert elicitation
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From:  "Schwab, Margo" <Margo_Schwab@omb.eop.gov>
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We are fine with these edits.  The footnote is needed because this
paragraph is in Chapter 8, whereas the discussion of the elicitation is
in Chapter 6.  By the same token, the last sentence is needed so that
readers know why you are referring to Experts E and K - as in, why these
experts?  By saying they represent the bounds on the range of the 12 you
are providing that information.  I think that it is clearer to say
succinctly state that one is the weakest and one is the strongest than
to explain the concept of bounding and what is being bounded in a
footnote.

Margo Schwab

Statistical and Science Policy
Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs
Office of Management and Budget
Email:  mschwab@omb.eop.gov
Phone:  202 395 5647

-----Original Message-----
From: Jones.Marjorie@epamail.epa.gov
[mailto:Jones.Marjorie@epamail.epa.gov]
Sent: Thursday, July 12, 2007 1:00 PM
To: Johansson, Robert
Cc: Schwab, Margo; Evans.Ron@epamail.epa.gov;
Conner.Lisa@epamail.epa.gov
Subject: Your proposed footnote language on PM expert elicitation

Margo/Rob:

Attached below, pls find Lisa Conner's recommended edits to the language
you asked us to add to the footnote.
Our question about the last sentence is:  why is it needed?



FN #3: As discussed in Chapter 6, one way in which we characterize the
model uncertainty associated with the relationship between particulate
matter and premature mortality was to conduct an expert elicitation.
The elicitation yielded twelve different functions, generated by asking
12 experts a structured set of questions, leading each to articulate a
functional form for the relationship, in a probabilistic estimate of
uncertainty.  Among the twelve experts, Expert K's function
characterizes the weakest relationship between PM and premature
mortality, whereas Expert E's function characterizes the strongest
relationship.

Marjorie C. Jones
Office of Air Quality Planning & Standards Air Benefit and Cost Group,
Mail Code C439-02 Health and Environmental Impacts Division RTP, NC
27711
voice: (919) 541-2508
fax:     (919) 541-0839

Shipping/receiving: 4930 Old Page Rd.
Durham, NC 27709





