MEMORANDUM

To:	Cindy Newberg, U.S. EPA

From:	Jessica Kyle, Mollie Averyt, and Mark Wagner, ICF International 

Date:	September 12, 2008

Re:	Avoidance of Skin Cancer Incidences and Mortalities Associated with
a 2010 Ban on Products Pre-Charged with R-22 (EPA Contract Number
EP-W-06-008 Task Order 9, Task 2)



This memorandum presents the estimated human health benefits of a
January 1, 2010 ban to restrict the sale or distribution of appliances
pre-charged with R-22.  These benefits are calculated based on total
avoided emissions from 2010-2019, as estimated for a 4% growth rate in
Table 7 of the memorandum, “Draft Memorandum on Costs Associated with
Refrigerant Substitution from R-22 to R-410A in Pre-charged Equipment
Imports,” delivered by ICF on January 17, 2008.

The avoidance of skin cancer cases and deaths were estimated linearly
based on results previously derived using the Atmospheric and Health
Effects Framework (AHEF) model.  The estimates provided below in Table 1
are based on reductions in HCFC emissions of 4,700 ODP-weighted metric
tons.  Human health benefits are estimated through 2150, although
minimal avoidances of skin cancer cases and deaths are expected after
2100. 

Table 1.  Estimated Avoidance of Skin Cancer Incidences and Mortalities
Associated with a 2010 Ban on Products Pre-Charged with R-22

Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer 	Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma	Total Cases
Avoided	Total Premature Mortalities Avoided

Cases Avoided	Premature Mortalities Avoided	Cases Avoided	Premature
Mortalities Avoided 



1716	3	46	6	1762	9

Note: Estimates have been rounded.

 Please contact Mollie Averyt at (202) 862-1569 with any questions or
comments.

 The relationship between ODP-weighted emissions and health effects is
generally linear in the AHEF for small changes.  For this analysis,
avoided health effects were based on linear adjustments to AHEF runs
previously undertaken by ICF to estimate the health benefits associated
with accelerated HCFC phaseout.

 PAGE   

 PAGE   2 

