MEMORANDUM
Date:
February
25,
2006
Subject:
2002­
2004
Annual
Fluctuation
in
Refinery
Gasoline
Benzene
Levels
From:
Julie
Boledovich
Assessment
and
Standards
Division
Office
of
Transportation
&
Air
Quality
U.
S.
Environmental
Protection
Agency
To:
Docket
EPA­
HQ­
OAR­
2005­
0036
This
memorandum
provides
our
analysis
of
year­
to­
year
fluctuation
in
refinery
benzene
levels
based
on
2002­
2004
gasoline
batch
reports.

To
begin
the
analysis,
we
computed
volume­
weighted
annual
average
benzene
levels
for
113
of
the
115
U.
S.
gasoline
refineries
used
in
the
ABT
analysis.
We
excluded
two
refineries:
one
that
exclusively
produced
California
gasoline
(
no
batch
reports
required
under
RFG/
Antidumping)
and
another
with
missing
batch
data
for
2002
(
therefore,
invalid
for
the
three­
year
comparison).

For
the
113
refineries,
we
calculated
the
percent
change
in
refinery
benzene
level
from
year­
to­
year
for
2002­
2003
and
2003­
2004.
A
negative
percent
change
indicates
an
increase
in
benzene
level
from
one
year
to
the
next,
while
a
positive
percent
change
represents
a
decrease.
The
computed
annual
percent
change
values
were
converted
into
absolute
differences
and
statistically
represented
using
a
histogram
as
shown
below.

We
concluded
that
approximately
95%
(
96%
in
2002­
2003
and
93%
in
2003­
2004)
of
all
"
normal"
year­
to­
year
variation
in
refinery
benzene
level
falls
within
the
0­
30%
range.
As
a
result,
we
considered
early
credit
trigger
points
within
the
0­
30%
range
in
our
MSAT2
ABT
analysis.
Refinery
Actual
Absolute
Actual
Absolute
Refinery
Actual
Absolute
Actual
Absolute
Refinery
1
1.04%
1.04%
11.46%
11.46%
Refinery
59
­
12.18%
12.18%
­
8.19%
8.19%
Refinery
2
­
19.65%
19.65%
12.13%
12.13%
Refinery
60
­
4.91%
4.91%
­
8.94%
8.94%
Refinery
3
10.82%
10.82%
­
30.13%
30.13%
Refinery
61
­
0.35%
0.35%
5.11%
5.11%
Refinery
4
­
42.34%
42.34%
23.82%
23.82%
Refinery
62
­
24.68%
24.68%
­
15.69%
15.69%
Refinery
5
­
0.75%
0.75%
­
0.52%
0.52%
Refinery
63
­
0.69%
0.69%
­
7.19%
7.19%
Refinery
6
­
4.29%
4.29%
6.66%
6.66%
Refinery
64
13.84%
13.84%
­
33.23%
33.23%
Refinery
7
­
0.38%
0.38%
­
0.36%
0.36%
Refinery
65
­
15.42%
15.42%
6.80%
6.80%
Refinery
8
­
6.93%
6.93%
­
14.49%
14.49%
Refinery
66
­
22.60%
22.60%
­
7.07%
7.07%
Refinery
9
­
8.98%
8.98%
­
1.94%
1.94%
Refinery
67
­
21.95%
21.95%
26.40%
26.40%
Refinery
10
­
15.62%
15.62%
­
2.68%
2.68%
Refinery
68
­
3.33%
3.33%
­
2.49%
2.49%
Refinery
11
­
10.59%
10.59%
0.47%
0.47%
Refinery
69
­
11.18%
11.18%
1.27%
1.27%
Refinery
12
16.13%
16.13%
­
11.34%
11.34%
Refinery
70
8.06%
8.06%
­
15.46%
15.46%
Refinery
13
7.20%
7.20%
4.68%
4.68%
Refinery
71
­
1.27%
1.27%
­
3.92%
3.92%
Refinery
14
0.34%
0.34%
­
17.40%
17.40%
Refinery
72
0.89%
0.89%
­
6.84%
6.84%
Refinery
15
0.85%
0.85%
­
20.48%
20.48%
Refinery
73
10.83%
10.83%
­
4.48%
4.48%
Refinery
16
­
11.90%
11.90%
2.91%
2.91%
Refinery
74
­
0.95%
0.95%
­
4.35%
4.35%
Refinery
17
­
0.11%
0.11%
­
34.64%
34.64%
Refinery
75
5.56%
5.56%
­
15.59%
15.59%
Refinery
18
­
11.19%
11.19%
­
9.52%
9.52%
Refinery
76
­
16.15%
16.15%
45.94%
45.94%
Refinery
19
57.46%
57.46%
­
55.90%
55.90%
Refinery
77
­
18.37%
18.37%
3.30%
3.30%
Refinery
20
­
27.10%
27.10%
­
31.44%
31.44%
Refinery
78
­
16.57%
16.57%
­
5.62%
5.62%
Refinery
21
9.49%
9.49%
­
28.95%
28.95%
Refinery
79
­
12.32%
12.32%
2.02%
2.02%
Refinery
22
5.30%
5.30%
23.91%
23.91%
Refinery
80
6.67%
6.67%
0.18%
0.18%
Refinery
23
4.20%
4.20%
­
24.65%
24.65%
Refinery
81
­
2.94%
2.94%
­
8.75%
8.75%
Refinery
24
­
24.21%
24.21%
21.91%
21.91%
Refinery
82
1.68%
1.68%
­
6.54%
6.54%
Refinery
25
­
11.04%
11.04%
­
0.85%
0.85%
Refinery
83
12.27%
12.27%
23.54%
23.54%
Refinery
26
­
1.93%
1.93%
4.15%
4.15%
Refinery
84
3.18%
3.18%
­
2.91%
2.91%
Refinery
27
­
16.86%
16.86%
4.99%
4.99%
Refinery
85
15.05%
15.05%
30.05%
30.05%
Refinery
28
­
1.00%
1.00%
9.98%
9.98%
Refinery
86
­
2.20%
2.20%
­
8.85%
8.85%
Refinery
29
­
11.56%
11.56%
­
0.44%
0.44%
Refinery
87
­
6.86%
6.86%
­
7.83%
7.83%
Refinery
30
16.59%
16.59%
15.99%
15.99%
Refinery
88
9.00%
9.00%
­
9.48%
9.48%
Refinery
31
5.60%
5.60%
­
51.73%
51.73%
Refinery
89
4.26%
4.26%
­
5.03%
5.03%
Refinery
32
­
15.83%
15.83%
15.94%
15.94%
Refinery
90
­
1.86%
1.86%
3.89%
3.89%
Refinery
33
­
7.10%
7.10%
10.17%
10.17%
Refinery
91
4.89%
4.89%
1.25%
1.25%
Refinery
34
­
3.41%
3.41%
­
10.37%
10.37%
Refinery
92
­
7.86%
7.86%
12.63%
12.63%
Refinery
35
­
17.33%
17.33%
­
1.17%
1.17%
Refinery
93
­
2.43%
2.43%
­
21.89%
21.89%
Refinery
36
­
34.98%
34.98%
3.41%
3.41%
Refinery
94
­
3.75%
3.75%
20.01%
20.01%
Refinery
37
­
18.55%
18.55%
4.02%
4.02%
Refinery
95
­
23.24%
23.24%
9.29%
9.29%
Refinery
38
­
1.65%
1.65%
24.13%
24.13%
Refinery
96
6.10%
6.10%
­
3.10%
3.10%
Refinery
39
10.03%
10.03%
0.13%
0.13%
Refinery
97
11.53%
11.53%
8.67%
8.67%
Refinery
40
10.67%
10.67%
­
7.47%
7.47%
Refinery
98
4.97%
4.97%
­
11.38%
11.38%
Refinery
41
­
9.04%
9.04%
1.65%
1.65%
Refinery
99
6.64%
6.64%
­
11.29%
11.29%
Refinery
42
3.31%
3.31%
12.36%
12.36%
Refinery
100
­
8.01%
8.01%
19.65%
19.65%
Refinery
43
19.33%
19.33%
0.08%
0.08%
Refinery
101
11.48%
11.48%
14.86%
14.86%
Refinery
44
6.59%
6.59%
7.41%
7.41%
Refinery
102
3.07%
3.07%
­
1.72%
1.72%
Refinery
45
1.19%
1.19%
7.57%
7.57%
Refinery
103
­
1.91%
1.91%
1.34%
1.34%
Refinery
46
5.91%
5.91%
4.25%
4.25%
Refinery
104
4.01%
4.01%
3.88%
3.88%
Refinery
47
­
14.98%
14.98%
­
3.96%
3.96%
Refinery
105
13.90%
13.90%
2.74%
2.74%
Refinery
48
­
9.90%
9.90%
3.10%
3.10%
Refinery
106
­
4.60%
4.60%
1.59%
1.59%
Refinery
49
8.97%
8.97%
1.74%
1.74%
Refinery
107
­
7.60%
7.60%
­
0.46%
0.46%
Refinery
50
2.13%
2.13%
2.10%
2.10%
Refinery
108
1.18%
1.18%
5.01%
5.01%
Refinery
51
­
10.25%
10.25%
­
6.14%
6.14%
Refinery
109
6.97%
6.97%
­
8.71%
8.71%
Refinery
52
­
99.61%
99.61%
­
15.61%
15.61%
Refinery
110
­
1.43%
1.43%
4.81%
4.81%
Refinery
53
­
2.05%
2.05%
8.60%
8.60%
Refinery
111
36.35%
36.35%
2.76%
2.76%
Refinery
54
2.72%
2.72%
9.10%
9.10%
Refinery
112
­
11.83%
11.83%
­
14.27%
14.27%
Refinery
55
2.33%
2.33%
12.08%
12.08%
Refinery
113
6.23%
6.23%
­
2.69%
2.69%
Refinery
56
­
3.21%
3.21%
2.97%
2.97%
AVG
­
2.78%
10.39%
­
1.03%
10.44%
Refinery
57
7.80%
7.80%
0.89%
0.89%
MIN
­
99.61%
0.11%
­
55.90%
0.08%
Refinery
58
5.54%
5.54%
­
1.47%
1.47%
MAX
57.46%
99.61%
45.94%
55.90%

Note:
This
analysis
excludes
two
U.
S.
refineries
with
incomplete/
unavailable
batch
data
2003­
2004
2002­
2003
2002­
2003
2003­
2004
2002­
2003
Percent
Variation
in
Refinery
Benzene
Level
42
26
20
14
5
1
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0­
5
>
5­
10
>
10­
15
>
15­
20
>
20­
25
>
25­
30
>
30
Absolute
%
Variation
No.
of
Refineries
No.
of
Refineries
2003­
2004
Percent
Variation
in
Refinery
Benzene
Level
46
27
13
8
9
2
8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0­
5
>
5­
10
>
10­
15
>
15­
20
>
20­
25
>
25­
30
>
30
Absolute
%
Variation
No.
of
Refineries
No.
of
Refineries
