1
The
CDC
Wonder
files
were
downloaded
June
3,
2002.

Abt
Associates
Inc.
October
25,
2005
­
1­
memorandum
Environmental
Research
Area
4800
Montgomery
Lane,
Suite
600
#
Bethesda,
MD
20814­
5341
#
(
301)­
913­
0500
Date:
October
25,
2005
To:
Bryan
Hubbell
&
Zach
Pekar,
US
EPA
From:
Ellen
Post
&
Don
McCubbin
Subject:
Methodology
for
County­
Level
Mortality
Rate
Projections
This
memorandum
describes
the
development
of
the
year
2000
through
2050
county
mortality
rates
used
in
BenMAP.
First,
we
describe
the
source
of
the
1996­
1998
county­
level
mortality
rates,
and
then
we
describe
how
we
use
national­
level
Census
mortality
rate
projections
to
develop
county­
level
mortality
rate
projections.

Mortality
Rate
1996­
1998
Age,
cause,
and
county­
specific
mortality
rates
were
obtained
from
the
U.
S.
Centers
for
Disease
Control
(
CDC)
for
the
years
1996
through
1998.
CDC
maintains
an
online
data
repository
of
health
statistics,
CDC
Wonder,
accessible
at
http://
wonder.
cdc.
gov/.
1
The
mortality
rates
provided
are
derived
from
U.
S.
death
records
and
U.
S.
Census
Bureau
postcensal
population
estimates.
Mortality
rates
were
averaged
across
three
years
(
1996
through
1998)
to
provide
more
stable
estimates.
Population­
weighted
national
mortality
rates
are
presented
in
Exhibit
1.
2
Census
Bureau
projected
mortality
rates
were
derived
from
crude
death
rates
using
the
following
formula,
given
by
Chiang
(
1967,
p.
2
equation
7):
M
=
Q/(
1­(
1­
A)*
Q),
where
M
denotes
projected
mortality
rate,
Q
denotes
crude
death
rate,
and
A
denotes
the
fraction
of
the
interval
(
one
year)
lived
by
individuals
who
die
in
the
interval.
A=
0.1
if
age
<
1,
and
A=
0.5
otherwise.

Abt
Associates
Inc.
October
25,
2005
­
2­
Exhibit
1.
National
Mortality
Rates
in
1996­
1998
for
Selected
Conditions,
by
Age
Group
Mortality
Category
(
ICD
codes)
Mortality
Rate
by
Age
Group
(
deaths
per
100
people
per
year)

Infant
1­
17
18­
24
25­
34
35­
44
45­
54
55­
64
65­
74
75­
84
85+

All­
Cause
0.246
0.034
0.093
0.119
0.211
0.437
1.056
2.518
5.765
15.160
Non­
Accidental
(
ICD9
<
800)
0.220
0.013
0.022
0.057
0.150
0.383
1.006
2.453
5.637
14.859
Chronic
Lung
Disease
(
ICD9
490­
496)
0.001
<
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.009
0.046
0.166
0.367
0.561
Lung
Cancer
(
ICD9
162)
0.000
<
0.001
<
0.001
0.001
0.006
0.035
0.133
0.295
0.367
0.288
Cardio­
Pulmonary
(
ICD9
401­
440
460­
519)
0.029
0.003
0.005
0.013
0.044
0.143
0.420
1.163
3.179
9.846
Source:
We
obtained
county­
level
data
for
1996­
1998
from
the
CDC
Wonder
(
http://
wonder.
cdc.
gov/).
The
numbers
presented
here
are
population­
weighted
by
total
population
in
each
county.
(
County­
specific
rates
are
used
in
the
C­
R
functions.)

Mortality
Rate
Projections
2000­
2050
To
estimate
age­
and
county­
specific
mortality
rates
in
years
2000
through
2050,
we
calculated
adjustment
factors,
based
on
a
series
of
Census
Bureau
projected
national
mortality
rates,
to
adjust
the
CDC
Wonder
age­
and
county­
specific
mortality
rates
in
1996­
1998
to
corresponding
rates
for
each
future
year.
The
procedure
we
used
was
as
follows:

°
For
each
age
group,
we
derived
an
estimate
of
the
national
mortality
rate
in
1997
(
the
midpoint
year
in
the
period
1996
­
1998)
consistent
with
the
series
of
Census
Bureau
projected
national
mortality
rates,
which
starts
in
1999.2
We
did
this
by
regressing
projected
mortality
rate
on
year,
separately
for
each
age
group,
using
the
ten
years
of
Census
Bureau
projected
rates
from
1999
­
2008.
The
resulting
estimated
national
age­
group­
specific
mortality
rates
for
1997
are
shown
in
Exhibit
2.
°
We
then
calculated,
separately
for
each
age­
group,
the
ratio
of
Census
Bureau
national
mortality
rate
in
year
Y
(
Y
=
2000,
2001,
...,
2050)
to
the
national
mortality
rate
in
1997,
estimated
in
the
previous
step
to
be
consistent
with
the
Census
Bureau
series
of
rates
starting
in
1999.
These
ratios
are
shown
for
selected
years
in
Exhibit
3.
°
Finally,
to
estimate
mortality
rates
in
year
Y
(
Y
=
2000,
2001,
...,
2050)
that
are
both
age­
groupspecific
and
county­
specific,
we
multiplied
the
CDC
Wonder
county­
specific
age­
group­
specific
mortality
rates
for
1996­
1998
by
the
appropriate
ratio
calculated
in
the
previous
step.
For
example,
to
estimate
the
projected
mortality
rate
in
2010
among
ages
18­
24
in
Wayne
County,
MI,
we
multiplied
the
CDC
Wonder
mortality
rate
for
ages
18­
24
in
Wayne
County
in
1996­
1998
by
the
ratio
of
Census
Bureau
projected
national
mortality
rate
in
2010
for
ages
18­
24
to
(
estimated)
Census
Bureau
national
mortality
rate
in
1997
for
ages
18­
24.
Abt
Associates
Inc.
October
25,
2005
­
3­
Exhibit
2.
All­
Cause
Mortality
Rate,
by
Source,
Year,
and
Age
Group
Source
&
Year
Mortality
Rate
by
Age
Group
(
deaths
per
100
people
per
year)

Infant
b
1­
17
18­
24
25­
34
35­
44
45­
54
55­
64
65­
74
75­
84
85+

Census
Bureau
2000
0.687
0.030
0.093
0.106
0.192
0.408
0.998
2.454
5.636
13.541
Est.
Census
Bureau
1997
0.706
0.031
0.095
0.108
0.199
0.421
1.032
2.555
5.787
13.846
CDC
Wonder
1996­
1998
0.246
0.034
0.093
0.119
0.211
0.437
1.056
2.518
5.765
15.160
Estimated
2000
a
0.239
0.033
0.091
0.116
0.204
0.424
1.022
2.419
5.615
14.826
a
The
estimate
for
2000
is
a
population­
weighted
average
of
the
county­
level
forecasts
for
2000
that
are
calculated
from
the
CDC
Wonder
county­
level
estimates
and
the
ratio
of
the
Census
Bureau
estimates
for
2000
and
1997.

b
Note
that
the
Census
Bureau
estimate
is
for
all
deaths
in
the
first
year
of
life.
The
CDC
Wonder
estimate
focuses
on
post­
neonatal
mortality
(
deaths
after
the
first
month),
because
the
Woodruff
et
al
(
1997)
study
used
to
estimate
premature
mortality
in
infants
examined
post­
neonatal
mortality.

Exhibit
3.
Ratio
of
Future
Year
All­
Cause
Mortality
Rate
to
1997
Estimated
All­
Cause
Mortality
Rate,
by
Age
Group
Year
Ratio
of
Future
Year
to
1997
Mortality
Rate,
by
Age
Group
Infant
1­
17
18­
24
25­
34
35­
44
45­
54
55­
64
65­
74
75­
84
85+

2000
0.97
0.97
0.97
0.98
0.97
0.97
0.97
0.96
0.97
0.98
2005
0.93
0.94
0.93
0.95
0.92
0.92
0.90
0.90
0.93
0.95
2010
0.88
0.88
0.88
0.91
0.87
0.88
0.86
0.84
0.89
0.91
2015
0.83
0.81
0.84
0.88
0.82
0.83
0.82
0.79
0.83
0.89
2020
0.78
0.76
0.79
0.86
0.77
0.78
0.78
0.76
0.77
0.86
2025
0.72
0.71
0.75
0.80
0.73
0.73
0.74
0.72
0.73
0.82
2030
0.66
0.66
0.70
0.75
0.68
0.68
0.69
0.70
0.71
0.77
2035
0.61
0.61
0.66
0.70
0.64
0.64
0.65
0.67
0.68
0.72
2040
0.56
0.56
0.62
0.66
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.63
0.65
0.70
2045
0.51
0.52
0.58
0.62
0.56
0.57
0.57
0.60
0.63
0.69
2050
0.47
0.48
0.55
0.58
0.53
0.53
0.54
0.56
0.59
0.68
Reference
Chiang,
P.
L.
(
1967).
Variance
and
Covariance
of
Life
Table
Functions
Estimated
from
a
Sample
of
Deaths.
National
Center
for
Health
Statistics.
Washington,
DC.
Series
2
Number
20.
March.
