TRIAD
EARLY
ACTION
COMPACT
 
June
30,
2004
PROGRESS
REPORT
Table
of
Contents
Page
PART
A
LOCAL
AND
REGIONAL
PROGRESS
Progress
Since
On
Development
of
Control
Strategies
.....................
1
Progress
Toward
Strategy
Adoption
and
Implementation...............
3
Meetings
Conducted
By
Stakeholders
...............................................
4
Excerpt
from
Speech
by
EPA
Administrator
on
EACs
....................
5
Air
Quality
Editorial
from
Greensboro
News
and
Record
................
6
PART
B
NORTH
CAROLINA
DIVISION
OF
AIR
QUALITY
STATUS
REPORT
Section
1
Introduction........................................................................................
8
Section
2
Emissions
Inventories.........................................................................
8
Section
3
State
and
Federal
Control
Measures
................................................
10
Section
4
Modeling
Status
.................................................................................
13
Part
A
Local
and
Regional
Progress
______________________________________________________________________________
Traid
EAC
June
2004
Progress
Report
Page
1
1
Progress
Since
December
31,
2003
Regarding
Development
of
Control
Strategies
and
Early
Action
Plan
Since
December
31,
2003
the
Triad
EAC's
major
initiative
has
been
development,
adoption
and
refinement
of
regional
and
local
control
strategies.
These
measures
were
submitted
as
part
of
the
Triad
Early
Action
Plan
to
EPA
on
March
31,
2004.
On
April
15
EPA
accepted
the
Triad
Early
Action
Plan
as
meeting
the
March
31
milestone,
and
the
Triad
Area's
effective
date
of
nonattainment
was
deferred
until
September
30,
2005.

By
December
31,
2003
43
local
governments
in
11
counties
had
adopted
resolutions
incorporating
the
regional
and
local
control
measures.
Between
January
2004
and
March
31,
2004
the
Stakeholders
group
clarified,
refined
and,
to
the
degree
possible,
quantified
the
strategies
and
agreed
on
implementation
dates.

During
this
period
several
local
measures
were
adopted
and/
or
implemented:
converting
to
biodiesel
in
Greensboro
for
all
on
and
off
road
diesel
vehicles;
school
bus
diesel
retrofits
in
Guilford
County;
replacement
of
new
gasoline
engines
that
meet
California
standard;
building
5
Park
and
Ride
lots
(
15
more
to
be
built);
elimination
of
coal
fired
boilers
at
RJ
Reynolds;
a
no
idling
policy
for
Guilford
county
school
buses;
and
implementation
of
energy
efficiency
in
identified
schools
and
public
buildings.
These
measures
are
included
in
the
control
measures
submitted
to
EPA
Between
March
31
and
June
30,
2004
EAC
Stakeholders
(
or
representatives
of
the
Stakeholders
Group)
engaged
in
several
activities
related
to
the
control
measures.
These
are
not
implementation
activities
but
they
have
resulted
in
either:
a)
clarification
of
one
or
more
control
measures,
or
b)
identification
of
methods/
opportunities
to
implement
the
strategies.

March
26
­
Meeting
in
Davidson
County
with
local
officials
and
Division
of
Air
Quality
representatives
to
discuss
Ozone
and
PM2.5
issues.
As
a
result
of
Davidson
County's
participation
in
the
EAC
and
its
PM2.5
problem,
considerable
effort
will
be
devoted
to
identification
of
emissions
sources
and
reduction
measures.

April
21
­
Triad
EAC,
Piedmont
Triad
COG,
Northwest
Piedmont
COG
and
Triangle
Clean
Cities
Coalition
co­
sponsor
the
Alternative
Vehicles
Road
Show.
Morning
workshop
at
Greensboro
Coliseum;
afternoon
workshop
in
downtown
Winston­
Salem.
(
See
invitation
logo,
following
page.)
This
event
stimulated
much
interest.
As
a
result,
the
Triad
EAC
will
sponsor
a
Biodiesel
Briefing
in
August
for
local
government
and
private
sector
fleet
managers
with
the
supplier
who
has
the
Greensboro
B20
contract.
______________________________________________________________________________
Traid
EAC
June
2004
Progress
Report
Page
2
The
Piedmont
Triad
Rural
Planning
Organization
and
the
Early
Action
Compact
bring
you
The
Alternative
Fuel
Vehicle
Road
Show
The
Piedmont
Triad
Rural
Planning
Organization
and
the
Early
Action
Compact
bring
you
The
Alternative
Fuel
Vehicle
Road
Show
Plan
to
join
us
for
a
very
special
RPO
meeting
April
21st
10:
00
am
 
11:
45
am
Greensboro
Colliseum
Special
Events
Center
Greensboro,
NC
______________________________________________________________________________
Traid
EAC
June
2004
Progress
Report
Page
3
June
3
­
Meeting
with
representatives
of
the
Southern
Environmental
Law
Center
(
SELC)
and
Division
of
Air
Quality
regarding
specifics
of
EAC
strategies.
Follow­
up
meeting
between
DAQ
and
SELC
set
for
July
9.
In
addition,
SELC
representatives
and
Triad
EAC
have
scheduled
a
September
13
meeting
for
in­
depth
discussion
on
control
measures
and
implementation..

June
9
­
Briefing
at
Duke
Energy
Belews
Creek
Power
Plant
(
Stokes
County)
on
selective
catalytic
reduction
facility
and
new
precipitators
which
will
reduce
NOx
by
80%
by
2009
(
80%
between
1996
and
2009),
consistent
with
N.
C.
Clean
Smokestacks
Act.
Most
of
the
reductions
have
already
occurred.
New
scrubbers
will
be
installed
beginning
2005
with
a
target
operational
date
of
2008
and
will
yield
a
70%
reduction
in
SO2.

J
une
16
­
Briefing
for
elected
officials
and
managers
in
the
Region
on
Ozone
and
nonattainment
status
and
PM2.5
Beginning
with
the
August
2
EAC
meeting,
we
will
begin
a
concerted
effort
of
several
months,
assigning
implementation
responsibilities
for
carrying
out
key
strategies
and
monitoring
progress.
The
August
meeting
will
focus
on
gaps
and
overlaps
between
EAC
transportation
strategies
and
the
work
of
the
region's
four
MPOs
and
PART.
Following
that,
with
the
help
of
a
transportation
subcommittee,
we
will
identify
what
more
can
be
done
to
achieve
progress
in
transportation
efficiencies
and
emissions
reductions.

2
Progress
Toward
Adoption
and
Implementation
of
Local
Measures
To
date,
the
schedule
for
adoption
and
implementation
of
control
measures,
submitted
on
March
31
has
not
changed.

Two
new
control
measures
have
been
added:

 
The
Winston­
Salem
City
Council
in
June
adopted
a
fee
to
be
charged
for
unauthorized
burnings.

 
50
electrified
parking
spaces
will
be
installed
at
a
truck
stop
along
Interstate
85/
40
in
Mebane
(
Alamance
County
EAC
member).
This
is
funded
by
a
grant
from
the
National
Association
of
State
Energy
Offices
to
the
NC
departments
of
Energy
and
Environment
and
Natural
Resources.
These
electrified
parking
spaces
give
truckers
access
to
heat,
air
conditioning,
internet
and
telecommunications
without
idling
their
diesel
engines.
______________________________________________________________________________
Traid
EAC
June
2004
Progress
Report
Page
4
3
Meetings
conducted
by
Stakeholders
Since
December
31,
2003
The
Triad
EAC
has
conducted
the
following
meetings
since
December
31,
2003:

February
2,
2004
­
Work
on
refining
strategies
­­
quantification,
combining,
etc.
­
Report
by
DAQ
on
conversations
with
Southern
Environmental
Law
Center
February
16,
2004
­
Final
full
EAC
meeting
on
strategies
and
quantification
­
Quantification
presentation
by
Forsyth
County
Environmental
Affairs
Department
April
5,
2004
­
Distribution
of
March
31
Early
Action
Plan
­
Discussion
of
next
steps
­
Discussion
of
environmental
groups
and
EACs
­
PM2.5
issues
in
Davidson
County
and
the
Triad
June
7,
2004
­
Discussion
of
April
15
nonattainment
designations
­
EPA
technical
comments
on
Triad
EAC
March
31
submission
­
EPA
administrator's
National
Press
Club
speech,
April
14,
supporting
EACs
(
see
following
page)
­
Status
of
state
modeling
and
progress
on
SIP
­
Planning
for
regional
briefing
and
contracting
on
Biodiesel
­
Updates
on
meetings
with
Southern
Environmental
Law
Center
­
Potential
PM2.5
designation
______________________________________________________________________________
Traid
EAC
June
2004
Progress
Report
Page
5
Major
speeches
and
testimony
delivered
by
U.
S.
EPA
Administrators
2001
­
2004
Speech
Date:
04/
14/
2004
Delivered
at
The
National
Press
Club
in
Washington
Subject:
The
Clean
Air
Rules
of
2004:
The
Next
Chapter
in
America's
Commitment
to
Clean
Air
Excerpt
related
to
EACs:

"
Today
I
will
define
a
new
chapter
in
America's
commitment
to
clean
air;
it
lays
out
a
vision
that
acknowledges
our
nation's
environmental
aspirations
and
the
realities
of
economic
globalism.
It
is
a
vision
that
contemplates
new
and
better
approaches
in
producing
one
of
the
most
productive
periods
of
air
quality
improvement
in
our
nation's
history.
.
.

Did
non­
attainment
designation
mean
that
we
couldn't
grow
our
economy
or
build
highways?
No.
Did
it
mean
we
had
to
have
a
plan
and
take
action
to
clean
our
air?
Yes.

Today,
I
have
used
the
phrase
"
better
way."
I've
spoken
of
"
old
thinking"
v.
"
new
thinking."
An
illustration
clarifies
what
I'm
talking
about.

Some
communities
recognized
early­
on
that
they
would
not
meet
our
new,
more­
stringent
ozone
standards,
and
began
to
think
creatively
about
how
to
clean
the
air
more
quickly
and
avoid
designation.
Thirty­
three
metropolitan
areas
collaborated
with
the
EPA,
states
and
environmental
organizations
to
create
an
innovative,
voluntary
agreement
called
Early
Action
Compacts.
13
The
Compacts
accelerate
the
planning,
implementation
and
emission
reductions
before
they
were
required
in
the
Clean
Air
Act.
If
all
the
requirements
are
met,
EPA
defers
the
effective
date
of
the
non­
attainment
designation.

The
Early
Action
Compacts
are
an
example
of
new
thinking.
Approximately
10
million
people
will
have
cleaner
air,
faster.
It
was
an
effort
to
avoid
some
of
the
frustrating
lessons
we
learned
the
hard
way
while
implementing
earlier
standards.
For
example,
we
learned
that
polarizing
conflict,
endless
litigation,
and
needlessly
complex
regulations
are
road
blocks
to
cleaner
air.

We
learned
that
using
collaborations,
incentives
and
a
direct
focus
on
results
accelerates
our
efforts
to
clean
the
air,
and
competitiveness.
That's
new
thinking.

The
EPA
is
optimistic
about
these
Early
Action
Compacts
and
we
want
them
to
work.
The
best
way
to
do
that
is
to
hold
them
to
a
high
standard.
Nearly
all
the
submissions
required
significant
actions
to
reduce
ozone
emissions
before
the
December
planning
deadline.
Regrettably
a
small
number
simply
haven't
demonstrated
the
necessary
progress
and
they
will
be
designated
as
nonattainment
areas
on
April
15th.

Will
someone
object
to
the
existence
of
Early
Action
Compacts?
Probably.
The
tension
between
old
thinking
and
new
thinking
remains.
We
will
support
the
agreements
because
our
experience
in
their
development
proves
once
again
that
we
can
make
more
progress,
faster
if
we
focus
on
collaborative,
incentive­
driven
and
results­
oriented
solutions.
.
."
______________________________________________________________________________
Traid
EAC
June
2004
Progress
Report
Page
6
EDITORIAL
6­
15­
04
Greensboro
News
&
Record
Is
the
Triad
heeding
call
for
cleaner
air?

Go
figure.

Just
six
weeks
ago,
the
American
Lung
Association
ranked
the
Triad's
air
quality
among
the
worst
in
the
nation.
Only
two
weeks
earlier,
the
EPA
had
warned:
If
the
Triad
continues
to
violate
ozone­
pollution
laws,
it
will
face
severe
penalties.

Yet,
at
least
so
far
this
summer,
the
Triad
has
yet
to
log
a
single
ozone
alert.
No
"
code
orange''
days,
when
the
air
is
unsafe
for
people
with
certain
health
problems.
No
''
code
red''
days,
when
the
air
is
so
bad
everybody
is
put
on
notice.

Last
year,
the
Triad
had
only
one
bad
ozone
day
by
now,
but
in
recent
years
it
typically
has
logged
several
at
this
point.
Even
a
code
red
by
mid­
June
isn't
unusual.

One
likely
factor
is
humidity.
Hot,
dry
air
fuels
the
ozone
level.
We've
had
plenty
of
heat,
but
the
humidity
has
been
high.
We
might
gripe
about
sweating
buckets
on
a
stroll
around
the
block,
but
this
humidity
could
be
helping
the
air
quality.
Of
course,
weather
patterns
can
change
in
a
minute.

Experts
can
only
speculate
as
to
other
reasons
for
lower
ozone
levels,
but
the
possibilities
are
promising.
One
might
involve
stricter
requirements
on
automobile
and
smokestack
emissions.
In
February,
Duke
Power
Co.
installed
new
cleaning
equipment
in
its
coal­
fired
power
plant
at
Belews
Creek
that
should
reduce
harmful
nitrogen
oxide
emissions
substantially.
Such
emissions
contribute
to
ozone
pollution,
especially
during
hot
weather.

Another
possibility
is
that
residents
and
businesses
are
heeding
the
EPA's
call
to
use
less
energy.
The
Piedmont
Authority
for
Regional
Transportation
reports
that
calls
from
commuters
interested
in
its
transit
service
are
up
considerably,
as
is
ridership.
PART
officials
say
calls
are
up
15
to
20
percent,
and
they
estimate
that
ridership
in
May
rose
about
10
percent
from
May
of
last
year.
The
increased
demand
has
led
PART
to
add
an
extra
bus
and
two
new
van
pools.

At
least
some
of
the
increase
no
doubt
stems
from
sky­
high
gasoline
prices.
So,
the
question
becomes,
with
gas
prices
back
on
a
downward
swing
in
the
past
few
weeks,
will
commuters
who
parked
their
cars
to
save
money
turn
fickle
and
revert
to
their
old
ways?
Let's
hope
not.

Increasing
PART
ridership
is
among
the
strategies
in
the
Piedmont
Triad's
plan
to
reduce
pollution
to
acceptable
levels
or
risk
facing
penalties
such
as
restrictions
on
industry
and
the
loss
of
federal
road
money.
Private
carpooling,
which
companies
could
help
organize
and
support,
is
another.
The
region's
governments
also
have
agreed
to
replace
old
vehicles
with
newer,
cleanerburning
ones.

The
EPA
has
given
the
Triad
until
2007
to
reduce
ozone
to
acceptable
levels.
Meeting
that
goal
will
require
all
of
us
to
do
our
share.
______________________________________________________________________________
Traid
EAC
June
2004
Progress
Report
Page
7
Part
B
North
Carolina
Division
of
Air
Quality
Status
Report
______________________________________________________________________________
Traid
EAC
June
2004
Progress
Report
Page
8
1
Introduction
As
a
requirement
of
the
Early
Action
Compacts
(
EACs),
the
progress
report
due
June
30,
2004,
must
include
a
status
report
regarding
the
air
quality
modeling.
This
report
satisfies
this
requirement.
Discussed
in
this
report
is
an
overview
of
the
changes
in
the
emission
inventories
and
the
air
quality
modeling
results.

2
Emissions
Inventories
Emissions
modeling
performed
by
NCDAQ
estimates
NOx
and
VOC
emissions
for
an
average
summer
day,
given
specific
meteorological
and
future
year
conditions
and
using
emission
inputs
based
on
emission
inventories
that
include
anticipated
control
measures.
The
biogenic
emissions
are
kept
at
the
same
level
as
the
episodic
biogenic
emissions
since
these
emissions
are
based
on
meteorology.
Projections
for
2007
take
into
account
all
State
and
Federal
control
measures
expected
to
operate
at
that
time,
including
Federal
vehicle
emissions
controls,
NOx
SIP
Call
controls,
and
North
Carolina
Clean
Smokestacks
controls.

The
modeling
emission
inventories
changed
since
the
last
progress
report
for
both
the
current
year
and
the
2007
attainment
year.
These
revisions
were
made
to
address
errors
that
were
found
and
the
use
of
better
available
data.

Current
Year
(
2000)
Inventory
Changes
The
changes
in
the
current
year
point
source
emission
inventories
included:

 
using
actual
2000
emissions
data
for
sources
in
North
Carolina
when
available,
 
corrections
to
Alabama
and
Illinois
emissions
modeling
files
to
remove
duplicate
sources,
and
 
inclusion
of
dropped
CEM
emissions
data.

The
current
year
mobile
source
emission
inventory
was
changed
to
correct:

 
the
vehicle
miles
traveled
data
in
South
Carolina,
 
the
vehicle
age
distribution
that
was
used
in
North
Carolina,
 
the
mobile
input
files
for
North
Carolina
so
that
the
modeled
temperatures
were
used
to
calculate
the
emission
factors.

The
current
year
nonroad
mobile
source
emission
inventory
was
changed
to
reflect
changes
in
EPA's
NONROAD
mobile
model.
The
NONROAD
mobile
model
was
re­
run
for
all
counties
within
the
36­
km
modeling
domain.
The
changes
to
the
inventory
were
minor,
but
NCDAQ
wanted
to
use
the
most
recent
data
available
for
this
modeling
______________________________________________________________________________
Traid
EAC
June
2004
Progress
Report
Page
9
project.
There
were
no
changes
made
to
the
current
year
area
source
or
biogenic
source
emission
inventories.

Attainment
Year
(
2007)
Inventory
Changes
The
changes
in
the
2007
attainment
year
point
source
emission
inventories
included:

 
growing
the
North
Carolina
2000
emissions
data
to
2007,
 
correction
of
stack
temperatures
in
the
North
Carolina
emission
files,
 
using
the
latest
North
Carolina
utility
emissions
according
to
the
Clean
Smokestacks
Act
compliance
plan
update,
 
corrections
to
Alabama
and
Illinois
emissions
modeling
files
to
remove
duplicate
sources,
 
growing
the
other
States
non­
utility
current
year
emissions
to
2007
via
EGAS
growth
factors,
and
 
using
the
Clear
Skies
modeling
emission
files
for
the
other
States
utilities.

The
2007
attainment
year
mobile
source
emission
inventory
was
changed
to
correct:

 
the
vehicle
age
distribution
that
was
used
in
North
Carolina,
 
the
mobile
input
files
for
North
Carolina
so
that
the
modeled
temperatures
were
used
to
calculate
the
emission
factors.

The
2007
attainment
year
nonroad
mobile
source
emission
inventory
was
changed
to
reflect
changes
in
EPA's
NONROAD
mobile
model.
The
NONROAD
mobile
model
was
re­
run
for
all
counties
within
the
36­
km
modeling
domain.
Again,
the
changes
to
the
inventory
were
minor,
but
NCDAQ
wanted
to
use
the
most
recent
data
available
for
this
modeling
project.
Also,
the
airport
projection
factors
were
updated
for
the
three
major
airports
in
North
Carolina,
as
well
as
the
airport
in
Forsyth
County.
The
updated
projection
information
was
obtained
from
the
Federal
Aviation
Administration
(
FAA).

For
area
sources
the
2007
attainment
year
inventory
was
changed
to
apply
North
Carolina's
open
burning
rule,
and
apply
federal
control
strategies
expected
to
be
in
place
by
2007.
There
were
no
changes
made
to
the
biogenic
source
emission
inventory.

Updated
Emission
Inventories
The
emissions
summary
for
both
the
2000
current
year
and
2007
attainment
year
for
the
EAC
area
is
listed
in
Table
2­
1.
These
emissions
represent
typical
weekday
emissions
and
are
reported
in
tons
per
day.
______________________________________________________________________________
Traid
EAC
June
2004
Progress
Report
Page
10
Table
2­
1:
Estimated
NOx
and
VOC
emissions
NOx
Emissions
VOC
Emissions
Source
2000
2007
2000
2007
Point
397.44
62.33
60.94
62.97
Area
4.82
5.07
70.82
73.86
Nonroad
39.27
37.32
30.42
25.16
Mobile
147.35
101.97
81.94
62.22
Biogenic
2.20
2.20
446.00
446.00
Total
Emissions
591.08
208.89
690.13
670.21
The
total
predicted
NOx
emissions
for
the
EAC
area
decreased
by
64%
from
591
tons
per
day
(
TPD)
in
2000
to
209
TPD
in
2007.
The
total
predicted
VOC
emissions
for
the
EAC
area
decreased
by
approximately
3%,
from
690
TPD
in
2000
to
670
TPD
in
2007.

There
are
few
VOC
control
measures
expected
for
area
and
point
sources
in
the
Triad
area,
so
they
continue
to
grow.
However,
since
the
Triad
area
contains
the
largest
power
plant
in
North
Carolina,
the
point
source
NOx
emissions
decrease
significantly
due
to
the
NOx
SIP
Call
rule.
Additionally,
there
are
significant
decreases
in
both
highway
and
nonroad
mobile
source
VOC
and
NOx
emissions.
Thus
the
overall
region
has
a
decrease
in
both
NOx
and
VOC
emissions.

3
Control
Measures
Several
control
measures
already
in
place
or
being
implemented
over
the
next
few
years,
will
reduce
point,
highway
mobile,
and
nonroad
mobile
sources
emissions.
These
control
measures
were
modeled
for
2007
and
are
discussed
in
the
Sections
below.

3.1
State
Control
Measures
3.1.1
Clean
Air
Bill
The
1999
Clean
Air
Bill
expanded
the
vehicle
emissions
inspection
and
maintenance
program
from
9
counties
to
48,
phased
in
between
July
1,
2002
through
January
1,
2006.
Vehicles
will
be
tested
using
the
onboard
diagnostic
system,
an
improved
method
of
testing,
which
will
indicate
NOx
emissions,
among
other
pollutants.
The
previously
used
tailpipe
test
did
not
measure
NOx.
The
inspection
and
maintenance
program
will
be
phased
in
from
July
1,
2002
through
July
1,
2005,
in
the
Triad
area.
Table
3.1.1­
1
lists
the
phase
in
dates
for
the
Triad
area.
______________________________________________________________________________
Traid
EAC
June
2004
Progress
Report
Page
11
Table
3.1.1­
1
Phase­
In
Dates
for
the
Triad
Area
County
Phase­
In
Date
County
Phase­
In
Date
Alamance
January
1,
2004
Randolph
January
1,
2004
Davidson
July
1,
2003
Rockingham
July
1,
2004
Forsyth
July
1,
2002
Stokes
July
1,
2005
Guilford
July
1,
2002
Surry
July
1,
2005
3.1.2
NOx
SIP
Call
Rule
North
Carolina's
NOx
SIP
Call
rule
will
reduce
summertime
NOx
emissions
from
power
plants
and
other
industries
by
68%
by
2006.
The
North
Carolina
Environmental
Management
Commission
adopted
rules
requiring
the
reductions
in
October
2000.

3.1.3
Clean
Smokestacks
Act
In
June
2002,
the
N.
C.
General
Assembly
enacted
the
Clean
Smokestacks
Act,
requiring
coal­
fired
power
plants
to
reduce
annual
NOx
emissions
by
78%
by
2009.
These
power
plants
must
also
reduce
annual
sulfur
dioxide
emissions
by
49%
by
2009
and
by
74%
in
2013.
The
Clean
Smokestacks
Act
could
potentially
reduce
NOx
emissions
beyond
the
requirements
of
the
NOx
SIP
Call
Rule.
One
of
the
first
state
laws
of
its
kind
in
the
nation,
this
legislation
provides
a
model
for
other
states
in
controlling
multiple
air
pollutants
from
old
coal­
fired
power
plants.

3.1.4
Open
Burning
Bans
In
June
2004,
the
Environmental
Management
Commission
approved
a
new
rule
that
would
ban
open
burning
during
the
ozone
season
on
code
orange
and
code
red
ozone
action
days
for
those
counties
that
NCDAQ
forecasts
ozone.

3.2
Federal
Control
Measures
3.2.1
Tier
2
Vehicle
Standards
Federal
Tier
2
vehicle
standards
will
require
all
passenger
vehicles
in
a
manufacturer's
fleet,
including
light­
duty
trucks
and
Sports
Utility
Vehicles
(
SUVs),
to
meet
an
average
standard
of
0.07
grams
of
NOx
per
mile.
Implementation
will
begin
in
2004,
and
most
vehicles
will
be
phased
in
by
2007.
Tier
2
standards
will
also
cover
passenger
vehicles
over
8,500
pounds
gross
vehicle
weight
rating
(
the
larger
pickup
trucks
and
SUVs),
which
are
not
covered
by
current
Tier
1
regulations.
For
these
vehicles,
the
standards
will
be
phased
in
beginning
in
2008,
with
full
compliance
in
2009.
The
new
standards
require
vehicles
to
be
77%
to
95%
cleaner
than
those
on
the
road
today.
Tier
2
rules
will
also
reduce
the
sulfur
content
of
gasoline
to
30
ppm
by
2006.
Most
gasoline
currently
sold
in
North
Carolina
has
a
sulfur
content
of
about
300
ppm.
Sulfur
occurs
naturally
in
gasoline
but
interferes
with
the
operation
of
catalytic
converters
in
vehicle
engines
______________________________________________________________________________
Traid
EAC
June
2004
Progress
Report
Page
12
resulting
in
higher
NOx
emissions.
Lower­
sulfur
gasoline
is
necessary
to
achieve
Tier
2
vehicle
emission
standards.

3.2.2
Heavy­
Duty
Gasoline
and
Diesel
Highway
Vehicles
Standards
New
EPA
standards
designed
to
reduce
NOx
and
VOC
emissions
from
heavy­
duty
gasoline
and
diesel
highway
vehicles
will
begin
to
take
effect
in
2004.
A
second
phase
of
standards
and
testing
procedures,
beginning
in
2007,
will
reduce
particulate
matter
from
heavy­
duty
highway
engines,
and
will
also
reduce
highway
diesel
fuel
sulfur
content
to
15
ppm
since
the
sulfur
damages
emission
control
devices.
The
total
program
is
expected
to
achieve
a
90%
reduction
in
PM
emissions
and
a
95%
reduction
in
NOx
emissions
for
these
new
engines
using
low
sulfur
diesel,
compared
to
existing
engines
using
highercontent
sulfur
diesel.

3.2.3
Large
Nonroad
Diesel
Engines
Proposed
Rule
The
EPA
has
proposed
new
rules
for
large
nonroad
diesel
engines,
such
as
those
used
in
construction,
agricultural,
and
industrial
equipment,
to
be
phased
in
between
2008
and
2014.
The
proposed
rules
would
also
reduce
the
allowable
sulfur
in
nonroad
diesel
fuel
by
over
99%.
Nonroad
diesel
fuel
currently
averages
about
3,400
ppm
sulfur.
The
proposed
rules
limit
nonroad
diesel
sulfur
content
to
500
ppm
in
2007
and
15
ppm
in
2010.
The
combined
engine
and
fuel
rules
would
reduce
NOx
and
particulate
matter
emissions
from
large
nonroad
diesel
engines
by
over
90
%,
compared
to
current
nonroad
engines
using
higher­
content
sulfur
diesel.

3.2.4
Nonroad
Spark­
Ignition
Engines
and
Recreational
Engines
Standard
The
new
standard,
effective
in
July
2003,
will
regulate
NOx,
HC
and
CO
for
groups
of
previously
unregulated
nonroad
engines.
The
new
standard
will
apply
to
all
new
engines
sold
in
the
US
and
imported
after
these
standards
begin
and
large
spark­
ignition
engines
(
forklifts
and
airport
ground
service
equipment),
recreational
vehicles
(
off­
highway
motorcycles
and
all­
terrain­
vehicles),
and
recreational
marine
diesel
engines.
The
regulation
varies
based
upon
the
type
of
engine
or
vehicle.

The
large
spark­
ignition
engines
contribute
to
ozone
formation
and
ambient
CO
and
PM
levels
in
urban
areas.
Tier
1
of
this
standard
is
scheduled
for
implementation
in
2004
and
Tier
2
is
scheduled
to
start
in
2007.
Like
the
large
spark­
ignition,
recreational
vehicles
contribute
to
ozone
formation
and
ambient
CO
and
PM
levels.
They
can
also
be
a
factor
in
regional
haze
and
other
visibility
problems
in
both
state
and
national
parks.
For
the
off­
highway
motorcycles
and
all­
terrain­
vehicles,
model
year
2006,
the
new
exhaust
emissions
standard
will
be
phased­
in
by
50%
and
for
model
years
2007
and
later
a
100%.
Recreational
marine
diesel
engines
over
37
kW
are
used
in
yachts,
cruisers,
and
other
types
of
pleasure
craft.
Recreational
marine
engines
contribute
to
ozone
formation
and
PM
levels,
especially
in
marinas.
Depending
on
the
size
of
the
engine,
the
standard
for
will
begin
phase­
in
in
2006.
______________________________________________________________________________
Traid
EAC
June
2004
Progress
Report
Page
13
When
all
of
the
standards
are
fully
implemented,
an
overall
72%
reduction
in
HC,
80%
reduction
in
NOx,
and
56%
reduction
in
CO
emissions
are
expected
by
2020.
These
controls
will
help
reduce
ambient
concentrations
of
ozone,
CO,
and
fine
PM.

4
MODELING
STATUS
4.1
Status
of
Current
Modeling
Modeling
completed
to
date
include:
the
base
case
model
evaluation/
validation
runs,
the
current
year
modeling
runs
and
the
2007
future
year
modeling
runs.
The
results
of
these
modeling
runs
can
be
viewed
at
the
NCDAQ
modeling
website:

http://
www.
cep.
unc.
edu/
empd/
projects2/
NCDAQ/
PGM/
results/

NCDAQ
still
needs
to
complete
the
2012
and
2017
future
year
modeling
runs
with
the
updated
emission
inventories.

4.2
Modeling
Results
The
base
case
model
runs
for
all
three
episodes
met
the
validation
criteria
set
by
the
EPA.
The
model
evaluation
statistics
can
be
viewed
at
the
NCDAQ
modeling
website
cited
above.

An
example
(
July
14,
1995)
of
the
8­
hour
ozone
modeling
results
for
the
2000
current
year
and
2007
future
year
are
displayed
in
Figures
4.2­
1
and
4.2­
2,
respectively.
One
can
see
a
significant
decrease
in
the
8­
hour
ozone
maximums
between
the
current
year
and
the
future
year.
These
decrease
were
the
results
of
the
all
of
the
controls
listed
in
Section
3
that
are
expected
to
be
in
place
by
2007.
The
1996
and
1997
episodes
show
similar
results.
Additional
modeling
results
can
be
viewed
on
the
NCDAQ
modeling
website
cited
above.

Figure
4.2­
1
2000
current
year
8­
hour
Figure
4.2­
2
2007
future
year
8­
hour
ozone
maximum
for
July
14,
1995.
ozone
maximum
for
July
14,
1995.
______________________________________________________________________________
Traid
EAC
June
2004
Progress
Report
Page
14
4.3
Geographic
Area
Needing
Further
Controls
The
current
draft
version
of
EPA's
attainment
test
was
applied
to
the
modeling
results.
In
very
basic
and
general
language
the
attainment
guidance
states
if
the
future
year
design
value
for
a
given
monitor
is
below
0.085
parts
per
million
(
ppm)
then
the
monitor
passes
the
attainment
test.
The
future
year
design
value
of
a
monitor
is
calculated
by
multiplying
the
current
year
design
value
of
a
monitor
by
a
relative
reduction
factor
(
Equation
4.3­
1).

DVF
=
DVC
x
RRF
Equation
4.3­
1
Where
DVF
is
the
Future
year
Design
Value,
DVC
is
the
Current
year
Design
Value,
and
RRF
is
the
relative
reduction
factor.

The
Current
year
Design
Value
(
DVC)
in
the
attainment
test
framework
is
defined
as
the
higher
of:
(
a)
the
average
4th
highest
value
for
the
3­
yr
period
used
to
designate
an
area
"
nonattainment",
and
(
b)
the
average
4th
highest
value
for
the
3­
yr
period
straddling
the
year
represented
by
the
most
recent
available
emissions
inventory.
In
this
exercise,
the
DVC
used
to
designate
an
area
nonattainment
will
be
2001­
2003
and
the
DVC
straddling
the
year
represented
by
the
most
recent
available
emissions
inventory
is
1999­
2001.
The
higher
of
those
two
values
is
shown
in
Table
4.3­
1
as
the
DVC.
The
relative
reduction
factor
(
RRF)
is
calculated
by
taking
the
ratio
of
the
future
year
modeling
8­
hour
ozone
daily
maximum
to
the
current
year
modeling
8­
hour
ozone
daily
maximum
"
near"
the
monitor
averaged
over
all
of
the
episode
days
(
Equations
4.3­
2).

RRF
=
mean
future
yr.
8­
hr
daily
max
"
near"
monitor
"
x"
Equation
4.3­
2
mean
current
yr.
8­
hr
daily
max
"
near"
monitor
"
x"
______________________________________________________________________________
Traid
EAC
June
2004
Progress
Report
Page
15
There
are
nine
ozone
monitors
in
Triad
EAC
area.
These
monitors
are:
Bethany,
located
in
Rockingham
County;
Cherry
Grove,
located
in
Caswell
County;
McLeansville,
located
in
Guilford
County;
Sophia,
located
in
Randolph
County;
Cooleemee,
located
in
Davie
County;
and
Hattie
Ave,
Pollirosa,
Shiloh
Church
and
Union
Cross,
all
located
in
Forsyth
County.
The
location
of
these
monitors
are
shown
in
Figure
4.3­
1.
______________________________________________________________________________
Traid
EAC
June
2004
Progress
Report
Page
16
Figure
4.3­
1:
Triad
Area's
Ozone
Monitor
The
results
of
applying
the
attainment
test
showed
all
monitors
in
the
EAC
area
in
attainment
of
the
8­
hour
ozone
NAAQS
in
2007.
These
results
are
displayed
in
Table
4.3­
1
below.

Table
4.3­
1
Attainment
Test
Results
for
the
EAC
Area
Monitor
Name
DVC
(
ppm)
RRF
DVF
(
ppm)
Bethany
0.091
0.84
0.076
Cherry
Grove
0.090
0.85
0.076
Cooleemee
0.096
0.88
0.084
Hattie
Avenue
0.094
0.86
0.080
McLeansville
0.090
0.85
0.076
Pollirosa
0.082
0.85
0.069
Shiloh
Church
0.089
0.86
0.076
Sophia
0.085
0.85
0.072
Union
Cross
0.093
0.85
0.079
It
appears
from
these
results
that
the
expected
controls
already
in
place
will
result
in
attainment
of
the
8­
hour
ozone
NAAQS.
______________________________________________________________________________
Traid
EAC
June
2004
Progress
Report
Page
17
4.4
Remaining
EAC
Schedule
Emissions
Modeling
Schedule
7/
9/
2004
Submit
2012
future
maintenance
emissions
7/
16/
2004
Submit
2017
future
maintenance
emissions
AQ
Modeling
Schedule
7/
23/
2004
2012
future
maintenance
AQ
runs
done
8/
2/
2004
2017
future
maintenance
AQ
runs
done
General
Schedule
7/
7/
2004
Preliminary
"
concept"
presented
to
AQC
7/
9/
2004
Share
MOBILE
inputs
w/
DOT
and
MPOs
(
95,96,97,00,07,12,17)

7/
30/
2004
Draft
MOBILE
documentation
to
DOT
and
MPOs
8/
6/
2004
EAC
modeling
complete
8/
20/
2004
Comments
from
DOT/
MPOs
due
9/
1/
2004
Final
documentation
complete
9/
9/
2004
AQC
meeting
10/
19­
22/
2004
Public
Hearings
10/
29/
2004
Public
comment
period
ends
12/
3/
2004
Submit
EAC
SIPs
4.5
Anticipated
Resource
Constraints
The
resource
constraint
of
most
concern
is
the
funding
needed
to
implement
some
of
the
local
control
measures.
NCDAQ
and
the
local
EAC
areas
are
both
looking
for
grant
opportunities
to
help
fund
EAC
initiatives.
