Shreveport­
Bossier
City
Metropolitan
Statistical
Area
Early
Action
Compact
Air
Quality
Improvement
Plan
March
31,
2004
Prepared
for:

Louisiana
Department
of
Environmental
Quality
Baton
Rouge,
Louisiana
and
U.
S.
Environmental
Protection
Agency
Region
6
Dallas,
Texas

i

Final
AQIP
032904
Contents
Executive
Summary
Section
1
Introduction
Section
2
Background
and
Objectives
2.1
Early
Action
Compact
..........................................................................................
2­
1
2.2
History
of
CACAC
...............................................................................................
2­
1
2.3
Public
Outreach
Programs...................................................................................
2­
3
Section
3
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA
Background
Air
Quality
Section
4
Overview
of
Photochemical
Modeling
Analysis
4.1
Overview
of
Urban
Airshed
Model
....................................................................
4­
1
4.2
Regional­
Scale
Ozone
Concentrations
and
Patterns..........................................
4­
2
4.3
Meteorological
Characteristics
of
Ozone
Episodes............................................
4­
3
4.4
Emissions
Influencing
Ozone
..............................................................................
4­
3
4.5
Episode
Selection
Procedures
and
Results
.........................................................
4­
4
Section
5
Base­
Case
Modeling
Analysis
5.1
Base­
and
Current
Year
Emissions
Inventory.....................................................
5­
1
5.1.1
Overview
of
Emissions
Processing
Procedures...................................
5­
1
5.1.2
Area
and
Non­
Road
Emission
Inventory
Component........................
5­
1
5.1.3
Mobile­
Source
Emission
Inventory
Component
.................................
5­
2
5.1.4
Point­
Source
Emission
Inventory
Component
....................................
5­
2
5.1.5
Offshore
Emissions
................................................................................
5­
2
5.1.6
Estimation
of
Biogenic
Emissions.........................................................
5­
2
5.1.7
Summary
of
the
Modeling
Emission
Inventories
................................
5­
2
5.2
Meteorological
Modeling
Inputs.........................................................................
5­
3
5.3
Other
Input
Parameters........................................................................................
5­
3
5.4
Base­
Case
Modeling
Simulations
........................................................................
5­
3
Section
6
Future­
Year
Modeling
Applications
6.1
Future­
Year
Emission
Inventory
Preparation
....................................................
6­
1
6.2
Summary
of
the
Modeling
Emissions
Inventory
...............................................
6­
2
6.3
Baseline
Simulations
Results
for
2007.................................................................
6­
2
6.4
Emissions
Tagging
Simulations...........................................................................
6­
3
6.4.1
Shreveport
OPTM
Results.....................................................................
6­
3
6.5
Control
Measures
Simulations
Results
for
2007.................................................
6­
5
6.5.1
Local
Control
Measures
Commitments................................................
6­
5
Table
of
Contents

ii

Final
AQIP
032904.
Section
7
Model
Attainment
Demonstration
7.1
Summary
of
Attainment
Demonstration............................................................
7­
1
Section
8
2012
Maintenance
Modeling
Analysis
8.1
Summary
of
2012
Modeling
Emissions
Inventory
.............................................
8­
1
8.2
Maintenance
Modeling
Results
for
2012.............................................................
8­
1
Section
9
Contingency
Plan
Section
10
Conclusions
Appendices
Appendix
A
SAI/
ICF
Consulting,
Early
Action
Compact
Modeling
Analysis
for
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
Metropolitan
Statistical
Area
Technical
Support
Document
Table
of
Contents

iii

Final
AQIP
032904.
Tables
3­
1
Eight­
Hour
Average
Ozone
Maximum
Concentrations
for
2001­
2003.................
3­
1
6­
1
Maximum
Observed
and
Estimated
Design
Values
(
EDVs)
for
the
Shreveport
EAC
Area
Monitors
for
the
2007
Baseline
Simulation
.......................
6­
3
6­
2
Local
Control
Measure
Commitments
....................................................................
6­
8
8­
1
Maximum
Observed
and
Estimated
Design
Values
(
EDVs)
for
the
Shreveport
EAC
Area
for
the
2012
Baseline
Simulation........................................
8­
2
Figures
4­
1
UAM­
V
Modeling
Domain
for
the
Shreveport
EAC
Study...................................
4­
1
4­
2
Weekday
Anthropogenic
Emissions
(
tpd)
in
the
Shreveport
EAC
Area
by
Species
and
Source
Category.....................................................................
4­
4

ES­
1
Final
AQIP
032904
Executive
Summary
This
document
presents
the
Air
Quality
Improvement
Plan
(
AQIP)
for
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
Metropolitan
Statistical
Area
(
MSA)
Early
Action
Compact
(
EAC).
It
represents
the
cornerstone
of
the
EAC
based
on
work
conducted
since
the
stakeholders
from
the
MSA
entered
into
the
Memorandum
of
Agreement
with
the
U.
S.
Environmental
Protection
Agency
(
EPA)
in
December
2002.
One
of
the
provisions
of
the
EAC
is
that
the
AQIP
be
complete
and
submitted
to
the
Louisiana
Department
of
Environmental
Quality
(
LDEQ)
by
March
31,
2004.

The
objective
of
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA
EAC
is
to
develop
and
implement
an
AQIP
that
will
ensure
that
the
current
attainment
status
of
the
eight­
hour
ozone
national
ambient
air
quality
standard
(
NAAQS)
throughout
Caddo,
Bossier
and
Webster
Parishes
will
continue
in
2007
and
2012.
As
shown
herein,
modeling
has
demonstrated
that
attainment
will
continue
through
2007
as
well
as
2012.
Nonetheless,
in
order
to
support
the
objective
that
the
MSA
will
continue
to
attain
the
eight­
hour
ozone
NAAQS,
the
Greater
Shreveport
Clean
Air
Citizens
Advisory
Committee
(
CACAC)
developed
a
list
of
control
measures
that
the
City
of
Shreveport
and
private
industries
will
commit
to
implement
by
December
31,
2005.
These
local
control
measure
commitments
include:


Installation
of
intelligent
transportation
systems
to
synchronize
and
improve
traffic
signal
operations
at
24
intersections
as
of
the
end
of
2003.


General
Motors
plant
in
Caddo
Parish
installed
new
volatile
organic
compound
(
VOC)
abatement
system
as
part
of
their
new
product
line
in
October
2003.


Center
Point
Energy
has
submitted
a
permit
modification
to
reduce
nitrogen
oxides
(
NOx)
and
VOC
emissions
by
90
percent
at
natural
gas
processing
plant
located
in
Bossier
Parish.
These
proposed
reductions
of
NOx
and
VOC
emissions
should
be
in
place
by
the
end
of
2005.


Installation
of
a
gas
collection
system
on
the
City
of
Shreveport's
municipal
solid
waste
landfill.
The
landfill
gas
is
piped
to
a
local
General
Motors
facility
for
use
as
boiler
fuel.
The
pipeline
began
operations
in
November
2003.


City
of
Shreveport
will
enter
into
a
20­
year
contract
in
2004
with
Johnson
Controls,
Inc.
for
the
purpose
of
installing
energy
conservation
equipment
in
33
city
buildings.


City
of
Shreveport
will
purchase
and
place
into
operation
a
hybrid
electric
bus
as
one
of
its
operating
46
public
transit
buses,
resulting
in
reduced
NOx
and
VOC
emissions
in
2005.

The
AQIP
also
contains
a
"
contingency"
provision,
which
would
further
require
that
the
CACAC
reconvene
in
the
event
that
the
eight­
hour
ozone
design
value
would
be
exceeded
(
i.
e.,
85
ppbv
or
greater),
at
some
point
in
the
future
during
the
term
of
the
EAC.
The
contingency
plan,
if
triggered,
would
require:
Executive
Summary

ES­
2
Final
AQIP
032904

CACAC
will
meet
within
2
weeks
of
the
exceedance
to
develop
initial
work
plan;


Control
measures
will
be
selected
within
6
months
and
submitted
to
LDEQ;


Within
12
months
after
that,
any
required
rulemaking/
ordinance
adoption
will
be
completed;
and
any
required
amendments
to
the
State
Implementation
Plan
will
be
completed,
and

Within
6
months
after
that,
the
selected
control
measures
will
be
implemented.

The
AQIP
also
documents
the
results
of
the
eight­
hour
ozone
attainment
demonstration
modeling
analysis.
The
modeling
analysis
was
prepared
by
ICF
Consulting/
Systems
Applications
International,
Inc.
(
SAI)
and
is
documented
in
a
Technical
Support
Document
(
TSD),
a
copy
of
which
is
attached
hereto
as
Appendix
A.
This
AQIP
summarizes
the
modeling
methodologies
and
results
detailed
in
the
TSD.

As
mentioned,
the
results
of
the
eight­
hour
ozone
attainment
demonstration
modeling
analysis
indicate
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA
will
be
in
attainment
of
the
eight­
hour
NAAQS
for
ozone
in
2007,
and
the
recommended
local
control
measures
will
result
in
additional
modest
reductions
in
ozone
concentrations
in
the
MSA.
In
addition,
the
maintenance
modeling
results
indicate
that,
despite
the
expected
growth
in
population
between
2007
and
2012,
the
expected
emission
reductions
resulting
from
the
local
EAC
measures
and
national
measures
provide
for
further
improvement
in
ozone
air
quality
and
maintenance
of
the
eight­
hour
NAAQS
in
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA.

1­
1
Final
AQIP
032904
Section
1
Introduction
This
document
presents
the
Air
Quality
Improvement
Plan
(
AQIP)
for
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
Metropolitan
Statistical
Area
(
MSA)
Early
Action
Compact
(
EAC).
This
plan
is
the
official
attainment/
maintenance
plan
for
the
MSA
developed
under
the
EAC
program.
It
is
a
comprehensive
air
quality
plan
that
will
be
incorporated
into
a
formal
Louisiana
State
Implementation
Plan
(
SIP)
and
the
MSA
will
be
required
to
carry
out
this
plan
as
in
nonattainment
areas.
Unlike
a
nonattainment
area
SIP,
though,
the
AQIP
is
customized
to
local
needs
and
driven
by
local
decisions.

This
document
also
presents
a
summary
of
the
eight­
hour
ozone
attainment
demonstration
modeling
analysis
presented
in
ICF
Consulting/
Systems
Applications
International,
Inc.
(
SAI),
Early
Action
Compact
Modeling
Analysis
for
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
Metropolitan
Statistical
Area
Technical
Support
Document,
March
31,
2004
accompanying
this
AQIP
(
herein
referred
to
as
the
Technical
Support
Document
(
TSD)).

The
background
and
objectives
of
the
AQIP
are
presented
in
Section
2
while
Section
3
contains
a
summary
of
the
background
air
quality
in
the
MSA.
Section
4
gives
an
overview
of
the
photochemical
modeling
analysis
and
selection
of
the
meteorological
episodes
used
in
the
ozone
modeling
demonstration.
Section
5
presents
a
summary
of
the
Base­
Case
emissions
inventory
and
modeling
analysis.
Section
6
presents
the
future­
year
modeling
analysis.
Section
7
presents
the
model
attainment
demonstration,
while
Section
8
presents
a
summary
of
the
maintenance
evaluation
for
2012.
Section
9
presents
the
AQIP
contingency
plan,
and
Section
10
presents
the
conclusions
of
the
AQIP.

2­
1
Final
AQIP
032904
Section
2
Background
and
Objectives
This
section
provides
the
background
and
objectives
of
the
EAC
program,
the
Greater
Shreveport
Clean
Air
Citizens
Advisory
Committee
(
CACAC),
and
the
work
this
committee
has
done
since
its
inception.

2.1
Early
Action
Compact
The
United
States
Environmental
Protection
Agency
(
EPA)
endorsed
the
Texas
Commission
on
Environmental
Quality
(
TCEQ)
Protocol
for
Early
Action
Compacts
(
EAC
Protocols)
on
June
19,
2002.
It
established
a
process
that
offers
areas
that
are
in
attainment
of
the
one­
hour
ozone
national
ambient
air
quality
standard
(
NAAQS),
but
approach
or
exceed
the
eight­
hour
ozone
NAAQS,
an
opportunity
to
develop
a
voluntary
air
quality
improvement
plan
through
a
compact
between
local,
state
and
EPA
officials.
The
EAC
was
developed
by
EPA
on
a
national
basis
to
establish
control
strategies,
account
for
growth,
and
achieve
and
maintain
the
eight­
hour
ozone
NAAQS.

The
goals
of
the
EAC
program
are
to:


Conduct
early
planning
to
develop
enforceable
control
measures
and
emissions
reductions
necessary
to
achieve
timely
attainment
and
maintenance
of
the
eighthour
ozone
NAAQS;


Develop
local
control
measures
with
input
from
the
public;


Involve
the
State
to
guarantee
technical
integrity
of
the
EAC
plan;


Integrate
the
early
action
plan
into
the
State
Implementation
Plan
(
SIP);


Defer
the
effective
date
of
nonattainment
designation
and
related
requirements
provided
that
all
the
EAC
terms
and
milestones
are
met,
and

Establish
`
fail­
safe"
measures
to
return
areas
to
conventional
SIP
requirements
in
the
event
that
EAC
terms
and/
or
milestones
are
not
met,
with
proper
recognition
specified
for
each
emission
reduction
measure
executed.

The
objective
of
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA
EAC
is
to
develop
and
implement
an
AQIP
that
will
ensure
that
the
current
attainment
of
the
eight­
hour
ozone
standard
throughout
Caddo,
Bossier
and
Webster
Parishes
will
continue
in
2007
and
2012.

2.2
History
of
CACAC
In
November
2000,
an
advisory
committee,
named
the
Greater
Shreveport
Clean
Air
Citizens
Advisory
Committee
(
CACAC
or
Committee),
was
established
by
the
Mayor
of
Shreveport,
consisting
of
representatives
from
various
local
stakeholder
groups.
The
CACAC
was
tasked
with
assessing
air
quality
issues
in
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
Section
2
Background
and
Objectives

2­
2
Final
AQIP
032904
City
MSA,
developing
a
set
of
"
recommendations
for
maintaining
and
improving
local
air
quality,
with
an
emphasis
on
ozone
issues,"
and
reporting
its
findings
to
the
local
city
and
parish
governing
bodies.
The
members
of
the
committee
include
representatives
of
the
medical
profession,
academia,
industry,
utilities,
the
Greater
Shreveport
Chamber
of
Commerce,
citizens
groups,
regional
planning
bodies,
and
local
governments.

The
Committee
met
regularly
and
worked
diligently
over
the
course
of
the
next
year
and
a
half
in
order
to
complete
its
report
within
the
time
frame
desired.
Before
completing
its
report
in
April
2002,
the
Committee
was
instrumental
on
a
number
of
significant
accomplishments,
including:


the
creation
of
an
ozone
public
awareness
campaign,
including
the
obtaining
of
a
$
15,000
grant
for
public
awareness
projects
pertaining
to
ozone
issues;


the
obtaining
of
a
$
400,000
federal
appropriation
for
air
quality
technical
support
work
for
the
local
area,
including
emission
inventory
and
modeling
work;
the
opening
of
communication
channels
between
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
MSA,
the
EPA
and
the
Louisiana
Department
of
Environmental
Quality
(
LDEQ)
on
air
quality
planning
issues;
and

the
obtaining
of
formal
commitments
from
the
governing
bodies
of
Shreveport,
Bossier
City,
Caddo
Parish
and
Bossier
Parish
to
work
cooperatively
and,
specifically,
to
develop
voluntary
measures
for
the
reduction
of
ozone
precursor
emissions
and
enter
into
an
Ozone
Flex
Agreement
with
the
EPA
and
LDEQ.

By
April,
2002,
the
CACAC
had
completed
its
report,
and
in
April
and
May
of
that
year
its
findings
and
recommendations
were
presented
to
the
Mayors
and
City
Councils
of
Shreveport
and
Bossier
City,
as
well
as
the
Caddo
Parish
Commission
and
Bossier
Parish
Police
Jury.
The
Committee's
recommendations
included:


Preparation
and
submission
of
an
Ozone
Flex
Plan
to
EPA
by
year's
end;


Development
of
a
work
plan
for
the
federal
appropriation
received
by
the
City
of
Shreveport
for
air
quality
planning
work;


Retention
of
an
experienced
technical
consultant
to
assist
with
air
quality
planning;


Establishment
of
working
relationships
with
other
area
ozone
planning
groups,
including
the
East
Texas
and
Baton
Rouge
coalitions;


Continuation
and
expansion
of
the
ozone
public
awareness
program;


Participation
in
the
U.
S.
Department
of
Energy's
"
Clean
Cities"
program,
for
the
promotion
of
alternative
fuel
vehicles;
and
Section
2
Background
and
Objectives

2­
3
Final
AQIP
032904

Continuation
of
oversight
by
the
CACAC
on
air
quality
matters
concerning
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA.

As
a
result
of
the
Committee's
recommendations,
a
formal
Intergovernmental
Agreement
was
executed
between
Shreveport,
Bossier
City,
Caddo
Parish
and
Bossier
Parish
on
June
6,
2002,
providing
for
cooperative
planning
efforts
on
air
quality
matters
among
all
the
signatory
governing
bodies,
and,
among
other
things,
including
a
pro
rata
sharing
of
the
initial
costs
of
a
technical
consultant
to
assist
with
development
of
the
Ozone
Flex
Plan
and
a
work
plan
for
future
technical
work.

After
considering
the
potential
of
an
Early
Action
Compact
for
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA,
the
CACAC,
in
September
2002,
unanimously
voted
to
recommend
that
the
local
governing
bodies
participate
in
the
program.
Accordingly,
an
EAC
for
the
MSA
was
developed
during
the
last
quarter
of
2002,
was
presented
to
and
approved
by
the
local
governing
bodies,
and
was
signed
by
Shreveport,
Bossier
City,
and
Caddo,
Bossier
and
Webster
Parishes
on
December
12,
2002.

The
CACAC
continues
to
serve
effectively
as
the
link
between
the
five
local
governing
bodies,
the
EPA
and
LDEQ,
and
the
general
public
on
air
quality
planning
matters,
and
served
as
the
primary
forum
for
public
involvement
and
interaction
in
the
planning
process
for
control
measure
selection
under
the
EAC.

2.3
Public
Outreach
Programs
Because
of
the
historical
attainment
status
of
the
one­
hour
ozone
standard
in
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA,
there
had
not
been
a
concentrated
effort
in
place
locally
prior
to
2001
to
educate
the
public
about
ozone.
Accordingly,
the
CACAC
determined
early
on
that
a
grass­
roots
ozone
informational
campaign
was
necessary
for
the
area,
to
familiarize
the
community
with
ozone
and
the
issues
associated
with
it.
Since
2001,
much
time
and
energy
have
been
spent
in
this
regard,
which
is
summarized
below.


Held
meetings
with
local
media,
and
as
a
result
of
these
efforts,
the
Shreveport
Times
and
two
television
stations
began
including
ozone
forecasts
in
their
daily
weather
reports.


Established
an
air
quality
website
on
the
City
of
Shreveport's
home
page
(
www.
ci.
shreveport.
la.
us/
airquality)
that
includes
daily
ozone
forecasts,
and
a
telephone
number
for
the
local
LDEQ
office
that
provides
real­
time
ozone
levels.


Held
annual
ozone
season
kickoff
event
at
SciPort,
a
popular
local
children's
science/
discovery
center.


Printed
and
mailed
ozone
informational
brochures
with
water
bills
to
all
Shreveport
and
Bossier
City
water
customers
(
approximately
100,000
mailings).
Section
2
Background
and
Objectives

2­
4
Final
AQIP
032904

Established
an
ozone
action
program
and
network
for
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
MSA
that
currently
includes
22
major
local
employers
(
including
city,
parish
and
state
governments;
school
boards;
businesses;
industries;
hospitals;
universities;
utilities;
etc.).


Held
the
area's
first
"
Clean
Cities"
program
stakeholder
meeting
in
June
2003,
with
over
40
representatives
from
local
fleets
and
fuel
providers
in
attendance.

This
informational
campaign
has
been
effective
in
laying
the
groundwork
for
more
meaningful
stakeholder
involvement
and
outreach
activities
specifically
associated
with
the
control
measure
selection
process
and
other
planning
aspects
of
the
EAC.
As
the
modeling
process
has
evolved,
the
CACAC
continued
to
ensure
that
sufficient
public
outreach/
awareness
activities
were
planned
in
order
to
ensure
that
the
public
is
fully
involved
in
the
local
planning
process
contemplated
by
the
EAC.

3­
1
Final
AQIP
032904
Section
3
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA
Background
Air
Quality
The
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA
is
currently
in
attainment
for
all
pollutants
with
established
NAAQS.
In
fact,
as
of
2002,
the
MSA
has
also
achieved
attainment
with
the
new
eight­
hour
average
ozone
NAAQS.

Eight­
hour
average
ozone
concentrations
in
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA
have
improved
over
the
past
three
years
(
2001­
2003)
as
shown
in
Table
3­
1.
The
MSA
achieved
attainment
status
for
the
eight­
hour
average
ozone
NAAQS
in
the
summer
of
2002.
The
preliminary
monitoring
data
for
2003
shows
a
continued
downward
trend
in
the
eight­
hour
average
concentrations
at
both
monitoring
locations.
The
design
values
for
eight­
hour
average
ozone
concentrations
(
defined
as
the
three­
year
average
of
the
annual
4th
highest
daily
maximum
eight­
hour
average
ozone
concentration)
for
the
Dixie
and
Airport
sites
are
77
parts
per
billion
by
volume
(
ppbv)
and
79
ppbv,
respectively,
for
the
period
ending
in
2003.

Table
3­
1
Eight­
Hour
Average
Ozone
Maximum
Concentrations
for
2001­
2003
8­
Hour
Daily
Max.
Concentrations
(
ppbv)

Location
Year
1ST
2nd
3rd
4th
Avg.
4th
Highest
Conc.
1
No.
Days
>=
85
ppbv
Caddo
(
Dixie)
2001
85
83
78
77
84
1
2002
80
79
77
75
79
0
2003
86
82
80
80
77
1
Bossier
(
Airport)
2001
92
89
85
84
90
3
2002
80
77
76
76
84
0
2003
93
82
80
77
79
1
1
Average
4
th
highest
concentration
is
the
average
of
the
annual
fourth
highest
eight­
hour
ozone
averages
over
a
threeyear
period.
Year
given
is
the
ending
year
of
the
three­
year
period
for
this
summary
statistic.

Data
Sources:
Louisiana
Department
of
Environmental
Quality.
Early
Action
Compact
for
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
Metropolitan
Statistical
Area
Comprising
Bossier,
Caddo,
and
Webster
Parishes,
December
12,
2002.
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA
Clean
Air
Citizens
Advisory
Committee
Meeting,
October
1,
2003.

4­
1
Final
AQIP
032904
Section
4
Overview
of
Photochemical
Modeling
Analysis
This
section
presents
an
overview
of
the
photochemical
model
used
for
this
study
and
the
methodology
and
results
of
the
meteorological
episode
selection.

4.1
Overview
of
Urban
Airshed
Model
The
variable­
grid
Urban
Airshed
Model
(
UAM­
V)
Version
1.5,
a
regional­
and
urbanscale
nested­
grid
photochemical
model,
was
used
in
the
Shreveport
EAC
modeling
analysis.
The
UAM­
V
model
is
a
three
dimensional
photochemical
grid
model
that
calculates
concentrations
of
pollutants
by
simulating
physical
and
chemical
processes
in
the
atmosphere.
The
modeling
domain
used
for
the
Shreveport
EAC
modeling
was
designed
to
model
both
regional
and
subregional
influences.
Figure
4­
1
shows
that
the
domain
includes
a
36­
kilometer
(
km)
resolution
outer
grid
encompassing
the
south­
central
U.
S.
(
Grid
1
domain);
a
12­
km
resolution
intermediate
grid
(
Grid
2
domain);
and
a
4­
km
resolution
inner
grid
encompassing
portions
of
northeastern
Texas,
northern
Louisiana,
and
southern
Arkansas,
including
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA
(
Grid
3
domain).

Figure
4­
1
UAM­
V
Modeling
Domain
for
the
Shreveport
EAC
Study
Section
4
Overview
of
Photochemical
Modeling
Analysis

4­
2
Final
AQIP
032904
UAM­
V
was
used
to
develop
a
conceptual
model
for
eight­
hour
ozone
conditions
representing
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA.
The
conceptual
model
sets
the
stage
for
understanding
the
physical
and
chemical
factors
that
influence
ozone
concentrations
within
the
area
of
interest
and
that
potentially
result
in
exceedances
of
the
eight­
hour
ozone
NAAQS,
and
for
subsequently
determining
the
extent
to
which
secondary
(
upwind
or
downwind)
areas
need
to
be
encompassed
within
the
modeling
domain
and
included
in
the
assessment
of
the
results
with
respect
to
ozone
and
precursor
transport.
The
conceptual
model
also
provides
the
basis
for
identifying
the
type
and
frequency
of
occurrence
of
different
types
of
eight­
hour
ozone
episodes
and
thus
for
the
selection
of
modeling
episode
periods
or
key
days
for
analysis
of
the
modeling
results.
Finally,
the
conceptual
model
serves
to
provide
focus
to
the
interpretation
of
the
modeling
results
and
the
development
of
effective
attainment
and
maintenance
strategies.

As
part
of
developing
a
conceptual
model,
an
evaluation
was
conducted
looking
at:


Regional­
scale
ozone
concentrations
and
patterns;


Meteorological
characteristics
of
ozone
episodes
and

Emissions
influencing
ozone.

4.2
Regional­
Scale
Ozone
Concentrations
and
Patterns
Regional­
scale
ozone
concentration
patterns
were
evaluated
for
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA
and
surrounding
areas.
Eight­
hour
ozone
concentrations
were
examined
throughout
the
region,
and
specifically
for
the
Shreveport
area
of
interest
and
other
EAC
and/
or
major
metropolitan
areas
within
the
high­
resolution
modeling
subdomain
(
Grid
3).
The
period
1996­
2002
was
specifically
examined.
This
seven­
year
period
was
selected
in
order
to
optimize
data
availability
for
a
consistent
set
of
monitoring
sites,
capture
the
range
of
meteorological
conditions
associated
with
ozone
exceedances
in
the
areas,
and
limit
the
influence
of
emissions
changes
on
the
analysis
and
interpretation
of
results.

Some
of
the
results
from
the
examination
of
eight­
hour
ozone
data
for
the
1996­
2002
analysis
period
indicate
that:


Eight­
hour
ozone
NAAQS
exceedance
days
in
Shreveport
occurred
at
a
rate
of
about
five
per
year;
these
exceedance
days
were
distributed
over
the
seven
years
such
that
three
of
the
DV
periods
were
non­
attainment,
and
two
more
were
near
non­
attainment.


Based
on
the
90
th
percentile
values
for
eight­
hour
ozone,
the
highest
ozone
was
observed
in
the
Shreveport
area
during
the
summers
of
1998­
2000.
Section
4
Overview
of
Photochemical
Modeling
Analysis

4­
3
Final
AQIP
032904

Eight­
hour
ozone
NAAQS
exceedances
occurred
most
frequently
in
conjunction
with
summertime
meteorological
conditions;
during
the
period
1996­
2002,
the
greatest
number
of
exceedances
(
per
month)
occurred
in
July,
but
a
similar
number
of
days
occur
in
August
and
early
September.


For
the
most
part,
the
Shreveport
(
Downtown
Airport)
site
drove
the
eight­
hour
ozone
NAAQS
exceedances
in
the
Shreveport
area.
Of
the
37
exceedance
days
between
the
two
sites,
22
of
these
have
higher
ozone
at
the
Shreveport
site,
whereas
15
have
higher
ozone
in
Caddo
Parish.

A
complete
summary
of
the
results
is
presented
in
Section
1
of
the
Technical
Support
Document.

4.3
Meteorological
Characteristics
of
Ozone
Episodes
In
general,
ozone
exceedances
in
Shreveport
are
associated
with
high
pressure
influencing
the
area.
Based
on
a
brief
review
of
daily
weather
maps,
the
location
of
high
pressure
tends
to
be
over
the
Shreveport
area
or
to
the
east
of
Shreveport
on
the
highest
ozone
days.
Local
meteorological
conditions
include
high
temperatures,
stable
morning
lapse
rates,
low
wind
speeds,
clear
skies,
and
lower
than
usual
relative
humidity
at
the
surface.
Surface
wind
directions
tend
to
veer
to
southwesterly
or
even
westerly
(
from
southeasterly)
for
higher
ozone
days,
but
the
predominant
southerly
wind
that
characterizes
most
summer
days
both
at
the
surface
and
aloft
also
occurs
during
high
ozone
days.

Ozone
episodes
within
the
Shreveport
area
occur
under
a
variety
of
regional­
scale
meteorological
conditions
and
prevailing
wind
directions.
The
regional­
scale
patterns,
in
turn,
influence
the
development
of
local
ozone­
conducive
meteorological
conditions.

4.4
Emissions
Influencing
Ozone
Within
the
Shreveport
area,
there
are
numerous
sources
of
nitrogen
oxides
(
NOx),
volatile
organic
compounds
(
VOC),
and
carbon
monoxide
(
CO)
emissions
that
likely
contribute
to
ozone
production.
Ozone
precursor
emissions
from
anthropogenic
sources
are
the
result
of
activity
associated
with
transportation
(
both
interstate
and
local),
electrical
generation,
manufacturing/
industry,
and
other
population­
related
sources
(
household
products,
home
heating,
recreational
equipment,
etc.).
There
are
several
local
industrial
sources
and
one
power
plant
located
within
the
Shreveport
area.
In
addition,
a
number
of
electrical
generation
stations
and
chemical
and
petrochemical
industry
sources
are
located
in
nearby
northeast
Texas.
Plots
of
the
anthropogenic
NOx
and
VOC
emissions
by
source
category
are
presented
in
Figure
4­
2.
In
general,
large
sources
of
NOx
include
electric
generation,
other
industrial
boilers,
and
mobile
sources.
The
anthropogenic
VOC
emissions
originate
from
a
variety
of
area,
industrial,
and
transportation­
related
sources.
Section
4
Overview
of
Photochemical
Modeling
Analysis

4­
4
Final
AQIP
032904
Figure
4­
2
Weekday
Anthropogenic
Emissions
(
tpd)
in
the
Shreveport
EAC
Area
by
Species
and
Source
Category
Other
sources
influencing
ozone
concentrations
in
the
Shreveport
area
are:


Emission
source
areas
to
the
west
and
south
of
the
Shreveport
area
ensure
the
potential
for
a
contribution
from
regional­
scale
transport.


VOC
emissions
from
biogenic
sources,
which
are
emitted
from
the
region's
extensive
hardwood
and
softwood
forests,
other
natural
vegetation
and
from
various
crops
that
are
raised
in
the
region.

4.5
Episode
Selection
Procedures
and
Results
Episode
selection
for
the
Shreveport
modeling/
analysis
was
based
on
a
review
of
historical
meteorological
and
air
quality
data
with
emphasis
on
representation
of
typical
ozone
exceedance
events
in
the
area
of
interest.
The
episode
selection
analysis
was
focused
on
the
Shreveport
area,
but
considered
information
from
ozone
monitors
in
nearby
states.
Section
4
Overview
of
Photochemical
Modeling
Analysis

4­
5
Final
AQIP
032904
The
primary
objective
of
the
episode
selection
analysis
was
to
identify
suitable
periods
for
analysis
and
modeling
related
to
the
eight­
hour
ozone
NAAQS
for
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA.
The
methodology
used
for
the
episode
selection
analysis
was
based
on
the
Classification
and
Regression
Tree
(
CART)
analysis
technique.
For
this
analysis,
days
within
the
period
1996
to
2002,
were
classified
according
to
meteorological
and
air
quality
parameters
using
the
CART
analysis.

The
CART
results
also
provide
the
basis
for
the
development
of
an
integrated
"
conceptual
model"
of
eight­
hour
ozone
for
the
Shreveport
area.
To
verify
the
consistency
of
the
classification
and
the
resulting
identification
of
key
meteorological
conditions
(
the
conceptual
model)
with
that
for
a
longer
period,
we
also
applied
CART
(
per
the
request
of
EPA)
for
the
ten­
year
period
1993­
2002.
The
results
for
the
ten­
year
period
are
consistent
with
those
for
the
seven­
year
period
and
support
the
episode
selection
results.

The
three
episodes
selected
for
this
study
each
include
two
start­
up
days
and
one
clean
out
day.
The
length
of
each
episode
was
designed
to
capture
the
entire
high
ozone
cycle
for
each
area
of
interest
as
influenced
by
the
synoptic
and
mesoscale
meteorological
conditions.
The
episodes
also
include
both
weekdays
and
weekend
days.
The
three
selected
episodes
include:


5­
9
August
1999,
Thursday­
Monday.


13
 
17
July
2000,
Thursday
 
Monday.


24
 
28
July
2000,
Monday
 
Friday.

5­
1
Final
AQIP
032904
Section
5
Base­
Case
Modeling
Analysis
This
section
describes
the
development
and
results
of
the
Base­
and
Current­
Year
emissions
inventory
and
Base­
Case
modeling
simulations.

5.1
Base­
and
Current
Year
Emissions
Inventory
The
base­
and
current­
year
emission
inventories
were
developed
for
the
three
Shreveport
modeling
episode
periods
(
5­
9
August,
1999;
13­
17
July,
2000
and
24­
28
July,
2000).
The
modeling
inventories
for
the
Shreveport
1999
base­
and
current­
year
(
2000)
episodes
were
prepared
based
on
the
following
information:


Final
1999
National
Emission
Inventory
(
NEI)
Version
2.


Emissions
data
provided
by
states
or
counties/
parishes
for
specific
years.


Episode
day­
specific
emissions
data
provided
by
individual
facilities.

The
1999
NEI
inventory
includes
annual
and
ozone
season
daily
(
available
for
some
of
the
source
categories
and
states)
emissions
for
NOx,
VOC,
CO,
sulfur
dioxide
(
SO2),
particulate
matter
with
a
diameter
less
than
10
and
2.5
microns
(
PM10
and
PM2.5,
respectively)
and
ammonia
(
NH3).

In
addition
to
the
1999
NEI,
efforts
were
made
to
obtain
the
latest
information
available
for
each
of
the
states
and
to
incorporate
these
data
into
the
modeling
inventory.

5.1.1
Overview
of
Emissions
Processing
Procedures
To
facilitate
development
of
the
detailed
emission
inventories
required
for
photochemical
modeling
for
this
analysis,
EPA's
UAM
Emission
Preprocessor
System,
Version
2.5
(
EPS
2.5)
was
used.
This
system
consists
of
a
series
of
computer
programs
designed
to
perform
the
intensive
data
manipulation
necessary
to
adapt
a
countylevel
annual
or
seasonal
emission
inventory
for
modeling
use.
Point,
area,
non­
road
and
on­
road
mobile
source
emissions
data
were
processed
separately
through
the
EPS
2.5
system
to
facilitate
both
data
tracking
for
quality
control
and
the
use
of
data
in
evaluating
the
effects
of
alternative
proposed
control
strategies
on
predicted
future
air
pollutant
concentrations.

5.1.2
Area
and
Non­
Road
Emission
Inventory
Component
Area
and
non­
road
source
emissions
for
all
the
states
included
in
the
Shreveport
modeling
domain
were
generated
based
on
the
1999
NEI
Ozone
Season
Daily
estimates.
County­
level
emissions
estimates
for
the
majority
of
non­
road
source
emissions
were
developed
using
EPA's
Draft
NONROAD2002a
model
(
EPA,
2003)
with
the
monthly
maximum,
minimum
and
average
temperatures
(
calculated
from
the
1970­
2000
30­
year
historical
averages)
by
state
for
the
episode
period.
Aircraft,
Section
5
Base­
Case
Modeling
Analysis

5­
2
Final
AQIP
032904
commercial
marine
and
locomotives
were
not
included
in
the
NONROAD
model,
and
the
emissions
for
these
categories
were
taken
from
the
1999
NEI
Version
2
data.

Modifications
were
made
to
the
1999
NEI
data
to
correct
the
possible
errors
or
make
some
improvements
to
the
database.

5.1.3
Mobile­
Source
Emission
Inventory
Component
The
county­
level
emission
estimates
for
the
on­
road
mobile
source
emissions
were
developed
using
MOBILE6.2.
The
MOBILE6.2
input
files
were
used
to
generate
the
emission
factors
for
total
organic
gasses
(
TOG),
NOx,
and
CO.
The
county­
level
emissions
were
calculated
for
each
vehicle
class
and
roadway
classification
by
multiplying
the
appropriate
emission
factor
from
MOBILE6.2
by
the
county­
level
vehicle
miles
traveled
(
VMT)
for
that
vehicle
class
and
roadway
classification
using
the
program
MVCALC.

5.1.4
Point­
Source
Emission
Inventory
Component
The
point
source
emissions
were
generated
based
on
the
final
version
of
the
NEI99
database
and
data
provided
by
Louisiana,
Tennessee,
Mississippi
and
Texas
regulatory
agencies,
and
point
source
data
for
specific
facilities
in
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA.

5.1.5
Offshore
Emissions
The
projected
2005
offshore
area
and
point
sources
prepared
for
the
Gulf
Coast
Ozone
Study
(
GCOS)
were
incorporated
in
the
inventory.
The
platforms
were
modeled
as
point
sources,
and
other
source
categories
were
modeled
as
area
sources.

5.1.6
Estimation
of
Biogenic
Emissions
The
EPA's
Biogenic
Emission
Inventory
System
(
BEIS­
2)
was
used
to
estimate
dayspecific
biogenic
emissions
for
the
modeling
analysis
with
the
Version
3.1
of
the
Biogenic
Emissions
Landcover
Database
(
BELD3).

After
each
of
the
inventory
components
was
completed
and
merged,
the
emissions
were
summarized
by
major
inventory
component
for
all
grids
in
the
modeling
domain
for
each
of
the
episode
days.
The
final
review
was
performed
before
the
UAM­
V
modeling.

5.1.7
Summary
of
the
Modeling
Emission
Inventories
The
emission
summaries
are
given
by
species
(
NOx,
VOC
and
CO)
and
by
major
source
category.
The
low­
level
emissions
include
anthropogenic
(
area,
non­
road,
onroad
motor
vehicle,
and
low­
level
point
sources)
and
biogenic
sources.
Tables
3­
1
through
3­
12
and
Figures
3­
1
through
3­
3
in
Section
3
of
the
Technical
Support
Document
present
the
results
of
the
base­
case
emissions
inventory.
The
tables
provide
emissions
summaries
for
each
meteorological
episode
day
for
each
model
grid
domain,
in
tons
per
day.
The
figures
provide
graphical
depictions
of
Section
5
Base­
Case
Modeling
Analysis

5­
3
Final
AQIP
032904
anthropogenic
and
biogenic
emissions
for
one
representative
day
for
the
July
2000
episode
for
the
Grid
3
domain.
Overall,
anthropogenic
emissions
do
not
vary
as
much
day­
to­
day
as
biogenic
emissions.

5.2
Meteorological
Modeling
Inputs
The
UAM­
V
photochemical
model
requires
hourly,
gridded
input
fields
of
wind,
temperature,
water­
vapor
concentration,
pressure,
vertical
exchange
coefficients
(
Kv),
cloud
cover,
and
rainfall
rate.
These
meteorological
inputs
were
prepared
for
the
Shreveport
UAM­
V
application
using
the
Fifth
Generation
Pennsylvania
State
University/
National
Center
for
Atmospheric
Research
(
PSU/
NCAR)
Mesoscale
Model
(
MM5).

MM5
is
a
state­
of­
the­
science
dynamic
meteorological
modeling
system
that
has
been
used
in
several
previous
air
quality
modeling
applications.
The
MM5
modeling
system
is
widely
used
for
meteorological
research
and
air
quality
modeling
studies
and
is
currently
supported
by
NCAR.

The
MM5
application
procedures
and
results
from
a
detailed
diagnostic
analysis
conducted
for
each
meteorological
episode
are
presented
in
Section
4
of
the
Technical
Support
Document.

5.3
Other
Input
Parameters
The
UAM­
V
modeling
system
requires
information
on
pollutant
concentrations
in
the
domain
at
the
first
hour
of
the
first
day
of
the
simulation,
and
ozone
concentrations
in
the
lateral
and
top
boundaries
of
the
domain
for
each
of
the
simulation
days.
It
also
requires
land­
use
data,
albedo,
ozone
column
values,
photolysis
rates,
and
chemical
reaction
rates.

5.4
Base­
Case
Modeling
Simulations
The
first
stage
in
the
application
of
the
UAM­
V
modeling
system
for
ozone
air
quality
assessment
purposes
consists
of
an
initial
simulation
and
a
series
of
diagnostic
and
sensitivity
simulations.
These
simulations
are
aimed
at
examining
the
effects
of
uncertainties
in
the
inputs
on
the
simulation
results,
identifying
deficiencies
in
the
inputs,
and
investigating
the
sensitivity
of
the
modeling
system
to
changes
in
the
inputs.
Model
performance
for
each
simulation
is
assessed
through
graphical
and
statistical
comparison
of
the
simulated
pollutant
concentrations
with
the
observed
data
obtained
from
available
monitoring
stations
located
throughout
the
domain.

Once
the
results
of
the
graphical,
statistical,
and
sensitivity
analysis
show
acceptable
performance
of
the
model
for
a
given
simulation,
that
simulation
is
called
the
"
basecase
simulation.
The
base­
case
application
of
the
UAM­
V
modeling
system
for
the
Shreveport
modeling
episode
periods
included
an
initial
simulation,
several
diagnostic/
sensitivity
simulations,
a
final
base­
case
simulation,
and
graphical
and
statistical
analysis
of
each
set
of
modeling
results,
including
comparison
with
Section
5
Base­
Case
Modeling
Analysis

5­
4
Final
AQIP
032904
observed
air
quality
data
for
the
5­
9
August
1999,
13­
17
July
2000,
and
24­
28
July
2000
episode
periods.

The
model
performance
evaluation
indicates
that
the
combined
base­
case
simulations
provide
a
good
basis
for
an
eight­
hour
ozone
attainment
demonstration
for
the
Shreveport
area
sites.
Section
6
of
the
Technical
Support
Document
presents
detailed
information
on
the
Base­
Case
modeling
simulations.

6­
1
Final
AQIP
032904
Section
6
Future­
Year
Modeling
Applications
The
Shreveport
EAC
future­
year
modeling
analysis
included
the
development
of
future­
year
emission
inventories
(
2007
and
2012),
and
the
application
of
the
UAM­
V
modeling
system
for
a
"
current"
year
of
2000
and
two
future
years
(
2007
and
2012).
In
addition
to
the
2007
baseline
scenario,
emissions
for
2012
were
developed
as
required
by
EPA,
to
assess
the
effects
of
growth
and
as
an
evaluation
of
expected
maintenance
of
the
standard
five
years
beyond
the
mandated
attainment
year
of
2007.

The
UAM­
V
modeling
system
was
run
for
the
three
Shreveport
episodes
current­
year
(
2000)
emissions.
This
allowed
the
combination
of
results
in
applying
the
EPA
modeled
attainment
test
procedures,
despite
the
different
base
years.
Many
of
the
comparisons
presented
in
this
section
also
rely
on
the
2000
current
year
results
as
the
basis
for
comparison.
Following
the
preparation
of
the
2007
baseline
emission
inventory,
future­
year
baseline
simulations
for
2007
were
run
and
the
results
were
compared
with
the
base­
and
current­
year
simulation
results.
Following
completion
of
the
2007
baseline
scenario,
two
types
of
future­
year
simulations
were
conducted:


The
UAM­
V
Ozone
and
Precursor
Tagging
Methodology
(
OPTM)
was
applied
to
the
2007
baseline
simulation
to
assess
the
contribution
to
ozone
concentrations
from
NOx
and
VOC
emissions
from
various
source
categories
or
source
areas
within
the
Shreveport
regional
modeling
domain.


A
control­
strategy
scenario
for
2007
was
modeled
to
examine
and
quantify
the
effects
of
specific
emissions
changes
(
for
selected
sources
and
source
categories)
for
selected
EAC
measures.

Following
a
discussion
of
the
future­
year
emission
inventory
preparation,
the
futureyear
modeling
results
are
presented
and
discussed
in
this
section.

6.1
Future­
Year
Emission
Inventory
Preparation
The
projection
of
the
Shreveport
EAC
base
year
emission
inventory
to
the
future
years
required
the
use
of
economic
growth
factors.
These
are
applied
to
the
various
industrial
sectors
and
source
categories
to
reflect
expected
future
growth
(
or
decline)
in
industrial
activity
and
resulting
emissions.
For
the
Shreveport
EAC
modeling
analysis,
the
future­
year
emission
inventories
for
2007
and
2012
were
developed
using
economic
growth
factors
provided
by
the
BEA.
Specifically,
the
state­
specific
gross
state
product
(
GSP)
factors
were
used
for
all
states
(
except
Louisiana,
where
employment
factors
were
used)
within
the
modeling
domain.

In
addition
to
the
economic
growth
factors
provided
by
the
BEA,
state
and
federal
agency
information
and
databases
were
used
to
determine
future
changes
in
emissions.
Section
6
Future­
Year
Modeling
Applications

6­
2
Final
AQIP
032904
6.2
Summary
of
the
Modeling
Emissions
Inventory
Figures
7­
1
through
7­
4
in
the
Technical
Support
Document
provide
emission
summaries
for
each
major
source
category
for
NOx,
VOC
and
CO,
in
tons
per
day.
The
low­
level
emissions
include
anthropogenic
(
area,
non­
road,
on­
road
motor
vehicle,
and
low­
level
point
sources)
and
biogenic
sources.
These
figures
present
a
comparison
of
total
emissions
for
each
of
the
Shreveport
Grid
3
domain
and
the
Shreveport
4­
parish
area
for
2000
and
2007.
For
Grid
3,
the
expected
changes
in
emissions
in
2007
from
2000
result
in
a
29
percent
reduction
in
anthropogenic
NOx
emissions,
and
a
16
percent
reduction
in
anthropogenic
VOC
emissions.
The
component
emission
totals
for
NOx
and
VOC
for
the
Shreveport
4­
parish
area
(
Caddo,
Bossier,
Webster,
and
DeSoto)
for
a
typical
weekday
(
24
July
2000)
were
also
compared
with
the
2007
baseline
emissions.
For
the
4­
parish
area,
the
expected
changes
in
Shreveport
area
emissions
in
2007
from
2000
result
in
a
13
percent
reduction
in
anthropogenic
NOx
emissions
and
a
33
percent
reduction
in
anthropogenic
VOC
emissions.

The
summaries
of
the
2007
baseline
emissions
for
each
modeling
episode
are
provided
in
Section
7
of
the
Technical
Support
Document.

6.3
Baseline
Simulations
Results
for
2007
As
described
above,
the
Shreveport
EAC
future­
year
baseline
simulation
incorporates
the
effects
of
population
and
industry
growth
(
or,
in
some
cases,
decline)
as
well
as
national
or
statewide
control
measures
or
programs
that
are
expected
to
be
in
place
by
2007.
Only
the
emissions
inputs
were
directly
modified
for
the
future­
year
baseline
simulation.
The
baseline
simulation
results
provide
the
starting
point
for
assessment
of
the
effects
of
further
emission
reductions
on
future
ozone
air
quality.
The
futureyear
baseline
simulation
results
for
Grid
3
and
Shreveport
4­
Parish
area
indicate
that
with
the
expected
reductions
in
emissions
in
2007,
there
is
a
30
to
65
percent
reduction
in
the
value
of
these
metrics
compared
to
the
2000
simulation.

Another
metric
that
is
important
in
assessing
and
demonstrating
simulated
attainment
in
the
future
year
is
the
estimated
design
value
(
EDV).
Table
6­
1
presents
the
maximum
EDV's
for
the
Shreveport
area
monitors.
These
are
presented
for
the
1999­
2001
and
2000­
2002
periods.
The
EDV's
are
calculated
for
concentrations
within
15­
km
of
the
monitoring
site
and
within
the
9
grid­
cell
area
surrounding
the
site.
Using
the
1999­
2001
observed
DV,
the
EDV
for
the
Caddo
Parish
monitor
is
74
ppbv
using
concentrations
within
15­
km
and
73
ppbv
using
the
9
grid­
cell
concentrations,
both
well
below
the
attainment
target.
For
the
Shreveport
monitor,
the
EDV
is
84
ppbv
using
both
the
15­
km
and
9
grid­
cell
concentrations.
According
to
EPA
guidance,
the
1999­
2001
DVs
should
be
used
in
calculating
the
EDVs
for
the
Shreveport
monitors,
since
2000
is
the
current
year.
However,
when
the
2000­
2002
DVs
are
used,
the
Caddo
Parish
EDV
drops
to
70
ppbv
for
both
the
15­
km
and
9
gridcell
concentrations.
The
EDVs
for
Shreveport
monitor
drop
to
78
and
79
ppbv,
respectively,
using
the
15­
km
and
9
grid­
cell
concentrations.
In
summary,
the
Section
6
Future­
Year
Modeling
Applications

6­
3
Final
AQIP
032904
expected
regional
and
local
emission
reductions
between
2000
and
2007
result
in
EDVs
for
the
Shreveport
area
indicating
attainment
of
the
eight­
hour
ozone
NAAQS.

Table
6­
1
Maximum
Observed
and
Estimated
Design
Values
(
EDVs)
for
the
Shreveport
EAC
Area
Monitors
for
the
2007
Baseline
Simulation
6.4
Emissions
Tagging
Simulations
For
the
Shreveport
EAC
modeling
analysis,
the
Ozone
and
Precursor
Tagging
Methodology
(
OPTM)
approach
was
used
to
examine
the
contributions
from
selected
emission
source
regions
and
source
categories
to
simulated
ozone
for
the
2007
baseline
simulation
within
and
surrounding
the
Shreveport
area.
Emissions
from
specific
areas
within
the
modeling
domain
and
corresponding
to
specific
source
categories
were
tracked
using
separate
tags.
OPTM
provides
estimates
of
the
contribution
of
emissions
from
specified
source
categories
or
source
regions
to
the
simulated
ozone
concentrations.
The
estimates
are
made
for
the
existing
conditions
within
the
simulation.

6.4.1
Shreveport
OPTM
Results
The
Shreveport
EAC
modeling
analysis
included
two
sets
of
tagging
simulations,
which
tracked
contributions
to
ozone
from
different
emissions
sources
and
source
regions.
The
2007
baseline
simulation
for
each
of
the
episodes
was
redone
for
each
of
the
tagging
scenarios
called
ST­
1
and
ST­
2.
The
specific
tags
for
each
scenario
are
as
follows:

Scenario
ST­
1:


Shreveport
4­
parish
area.


All
other
areas
of
Louisiana.


Tyler/
Longview/
Marshall
5­
county
EAC
area
(
NETAC
area).


All
other
areas
of
Texas.


All
other
emissions,
including
biogenic
emissions.
1999
 
2001
2000
 
2002
Site
Observed
DV
EDV
(
15­
km)
EDV
(
9­
cell)
Observed
DV
EDV
(
15­
km)
EDV
(
9­
cell)
Caddo
Parish
83
74
73
79
70
70
Shreveport
90
84
84
84
78
79
Section
6
Future­
Year
Modeling
Applications

6­
4
Final
AQIP
032904
Scenario
ST­
2:


Area
and
non­
road
emissions
from
Shreveport
4­
parish
area.


On­
road
mobile
source
emissions
from
Shreveport
4­
parish
area.


Low­
level
point
sources
from
Shreveport
4­
parish
area.


Elevated
point
sources
from
Shreveport
4­
parish
area.


Biogenic
emissions.


All
other
emissions.

In
each
case,
NOx
and
VOC
emissions
are
tagged
explicitly
and
each
scenario
also
included
an
additional
tag
for
all
emissions
not
otherwise
tagged
in
that
scenario.
In
total,
the
first
Shreveport
tagging
scenario
provided
a
comparison
of
contribution
from
anthropogenic
emissions
in
the
local
Shreveport
4­
parish
area,
the
rest
of
Louisiana,
the
adjacent
Northeast
Texas
area,
the
rest
of
Texas,
and
all
other
sources
beyond
these
areas,
which
included
biogenic
emissions.
The
second
scenario
focused
on
particular
source
categories
within
the
Shreveport
4­
parish
area,
but
also
tracked
contribution
from
biogenic
emissions
separately.
These
simulations
provided
information
regarding
the
relative
contribution
of
the
emissions
to
observed
and
simulated
ozone
in
the
Shreveport
area
from
local
sources
and
regional
sources
located
in
Louisiana
and
Texas
which
was
used
to
guide
the
selection
of
control
measures
(
e.
g.,
NOx
vs.
VOC
controls)
based
on
their
expected
relative
effectiveness
in
reducing
ozone
in
the
Shreveport
area.

The
results
for
the
ST­
1
simulation
are:


NOx
from
local
sources
is
the
largest
contributor
overall
of
the
specific
geographic
tags.


Relative
contributions
from
the
other
tagged
regions
vary
by
episode
and
the
two
sites,
with
significant
influence
from
other
Louisiana
and
Texas
sources
indicated
on
certain
days.


Biogenic
VOC
is
the
dominant
contributor
to
simulated
ozone
in
the
4­
parish
area.


About
5­
15
percent
of
simulated
ozone
is
attributable
to
local
and
other
Louisiana
and
Texas
anthropogenic
VOC
emissions.
Section
6
Future­
Year
Modeling
Applications

6­
5
Final
AQIP
032904
The
results
for
the
ST­
2
simulation
are:


NOx
emissions
from
area
and
non­
road
sources
and
elevated
point
sources
are
the
largest
local
source­
category
contributors
to
the
simulated
ozone
in
the
four­
parish
area.


Contribution
from
on­
road
mobile
NOx
is
proportionately
less
than
for
larger
urban
areas,
but
does
show
up
as
important
for
certain
days
at
the
monitoring
sites.


Biogenic
VOC
accounts
for
about
40
 
60%
of
the
VOC
contribution.

6.5
Control
Measures
Simulations
Results
for
2007
Because
the
expected
local
and
regional
emission
reductions
in
2007
resulted
in
simulated
attainment
of
the
eight­
hour
ozone
NAAQS
,
with
estimated
design
values
of
84
ppbv
or
less
for
the
Shreveport
area
monitors,
no
emission
reduction
sensitivity
simulations
were
conducted
as
part
of
this
analysis.
Instead,
the
City
of
Shreveport
and
the
CACAC
identified
local
emission
reduction
measures
for
inclusion
in
the
Shreveport
AQIP
and
for
evaluation
in
the
modeling
analysis.
These
control
measures
are
discussed
in
more
detail
below.

6.5.1
Local
Control
Measure
Commitments
The
objective
of
the
EAC
is
to
develop
and
implement
local/
regional
emissions
reduction
strategies
to
ensure
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA
will
continue
to
meet
the
eight­
hour
average
ozone
NAAQS
in
the
future.
The
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA
is
unique
among
most
EAC
participants
in
that
it
has
been
designated
by
EPA
as
in
attainment
for
the
eight­
hour
average
ozone
NAAQS1.
Therefore,
unlike
nonattainment
areas,
there
are
no
defined
levels
of
reductions
necessary
to
achieve
attainment.
In
addition,
the
photochemical
modeling
analysis
results
indicate
the
EAC
MSA
will
be
in
attainment
of
the
eight­
hour
ozone
NAAQS
in
2007.
The
2007
base­
case
modeling
results
indicate
that
eight­
hour
ozone
design
values
will
be
74
ppbv
and
84
ppbv
at
the
Caddo
and
Shreveport
monitoring
stations,
respectively.
Both
these
design
values
are
below
the
85
ppbv
eight­
hour
ozone
NAAQS.
Furthermore,
the
latest
three
years
of
eight­
hour
ozone
monitoring
data
shows
that
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA
is
currently
well
below
the
eight­
hour
ozone
NAAQS
(
See
Section
3).
2
1
Green,
R.
E.,
U.
S.
EPA,
Regional
Administrator
(
6RA),
Letter
to
M.
Foster,
Jr.,
Governor
of
Louisiana,
Louisiana
Eight­
hour
Ozone
NAAQS
Attainment
Status,
December
3,
2003.
2
The
modeling
analysis
for
2007
is
based
upon
the
2001
design
values
for
the
local
monitoring
sites,
because
the
2001
values
cover
the
time
period
of
the
particular
episodes
which
were
selected
for
the
modeling
process.
As
mentioned,
the
design
values
for
these
sites
have
since
decreased
significantly,
as
shown
in
Table
6­
1.
However,
even
though
the
future
case
modeling
analysis
is
based
on
the
higher
2001
values
rather
than
the
more
current
(
and
significantly
lower)
values,
the
analysis
still
shows
the
area
to
be
in
attainment
in
2007
(
79
and
84
ppbv
at
the
Caddo
and
Shreveport
sites,
respectively).
Section
6
Future­
Year
Modeling
Applications

6­
6
Final
AQIP
032904
In
light
of
the
area's
current
(
as
well
as
modeled
future)
attainment
status,
the
CACAC
had
discussions
with
both
EPA
and
LDEQ
regarding
the
appropriate
approach
to
take
in
developing
our
AQIP.
It
was
agreed
that
the
AQIP
would
include
a
list
of
control
measures
that
the
City
of
Shreveport
and
private
industries
will
commit
to
implement
by
December
31,
2005,
as
discussed
more
fully
below.

The
AQIP
also
contains
a
"
contingency"
provision,
which
would
further
require
that
the
CACAC
reconvene
in
the
event
that
eight­
hour
ozone
design
value
is
exceeded
(
i.
e.,
85
ppbv
or
greater),
at
some
point
in
the
future
during
the
term
of
the
EAC
(
See
Section
9).

In
addition
to
the
control
measures
agreed
upon
in
the
Ozone
Flex
Agreement
and
those
federally
mandated
(
e.
g.,
low­
sulfur
gasoline),
the
other
local
control
measures
contained
in
the
AQIP
for
implementation
by
the
end
of
2005
include:


Installation
of
intelligent
transportation
systems
(
ITS)
to
synchronize
and
improve
traffic
signal
operations
at
24
intersections
as
of
the
end
of
2003.


General
Motors
plant
in
Caddo
Parish
installed
new
VOC
abatement
system
as
part
of
their
new
product
line
in
October
2003.


Center
Point
Energy
has
submitted
a
permit
modification
to
reduce
NOx
and
VOC
emissions
by
90
percent
at
a
natural
gas
processing
plant
located
in
Bossier
Parish.
These
proposed
reductions
of
NOx
and
VOC
emissions
should
be
in
place
by
the
end
of
2005.


Installation
of
a
gas
collection
system
on
the
City
of
Shreveport's
municipal
solid
waste
landfill.
The
landfill
gas
is
piped
to
a
local
General
Motors
facility
for
use
as
boiler
fuel.
The
pipeline
began
operations
in
November
2003.


City
of
Shreveport
will
enter
into
a
20­
year
contract
in
2004
with
Johnson
Controls,
Inc.
for
the
purpose
of
installing
energy
conservation
equipment
in
33
city
buildings.


City
of
Shreveport
will
purchase
and
place
into
operation
a
hybrid
electric
bus
as
one
of
its
operating
46
public
transit
buses,
resulting
in
reduced
NOx
and
VOC
emissions
in
2005.

ITS
components
were
installed
by
the
City
of
Shreveport
at
24
intersections
located
in
an
area
bounded
by
LA1
(
Youree
Drive),
LA511
(
E70th
Street)
and
LA526
(
Bert
Kouns
Industrial
Loop).
These
components
include
new
timing
plans,
optimal
cycle
lengths,
vehicle
detection,
fiber
optic
communications,
and
modern,
solid
state
controller
equipment.
NOx
and
VOC
emissions
reductions
were
estimated
by
LDEQ
based
on
the
Highway
Capacity
Manual
(
HCM)
Intersection
Analysis
using
the
SIG/
Cinema
v.
2.12
model
and
EPA's
MOBILE6
model.
Traffic
data
and
signal
timing
information
Section
6
Future­
Year
Modeling
Applications

6­
7
Final
AQIP
032904
for
each
intersection
was
provided
by
the
City
of
Shreveport
Traffic
Engineering
Division.

Four
signals
representing
the
variety
of
conditions
for
the
24
intersections
were
selected
to
represent
the
average
changes
to
the
entire
system.
Each
of
these
signals
was
given
a
before
and
after
HCM
analysis
and
the
results
were
averaged
to
give
a
system
wide
emissions
reduction.
The
HCM
analysis
output
provided
an
average
delay
in
seconds
per
vehicle
for
each
intersection
analyzed.
Multiplying
the
intersection
average
delay
by
the
average
hourly
traffic
volume
provided
the
total
delay
in
vehicle­
hours
per
hour.
After
calculating
the
average
total
delay,
MOBILE6
was
used
to
obtain
VOC
and
NOx
emissions
factors
for
the
different
vehicle
classifications.
The
MOBILE6
model
was
run
using
the
2.5
mph
speed,
which
gives
idling
emissions
factors.
The
VOC
and
NOx
emissions
factors
were
generated
in
grams
per
mile
(
g/
mi).
These
units
were
multiplied
by
2.5
to
convert
to
grams
per
hour.
These
values
were
then
converted
to
kilograms
per
hour
and
multiplied
by
the
total
delay
in
vehicle­
hours
to
obtain
the
total
emissions
for
both
before
and
after
the
installation
of
ITS.
These
emissions
estimates
were
subtracted
and
converted
to
tons
per
day
to
estimate
the
overall
NOx
and
VOC
emissions
reductions.

Estimated
annual
emissions
reductions
at
the
General
Motors
plant
and
at
Center
Point
Energy
were
provided
by
personnel
at
each
facility.
These
annual
emissions
reductions
were
converted
to
daily
values
assuming
365
day
operations
for
the
purposes
of
the
photochemical
modeling
analysis.

The
vendor
of
the
hybrid
bus
(
Gillig)
provided
NOx
and
VOC
emissions
factor
reductions
in
g/
mile.
The
NOx
emissions
would
be
reduced
by
55
percent
(
16.7
g/
mi)
and
the
VOC
emissions
would
be
reduced
by
100
percent
(
0.14
g/
mi)
compared
to
a
heavy­
duty
diesel
bus.
In
order
to
estimate
daily
emissions
reductions,
MOBILE6
was
used
to
obtain
vehicle
miles
traveled
(
VMT)
for
heavy­
duty
diesel
buses.
The
national
average
VMT
for
heavy­
duty
diesel
buses
is
95.4
VMT
per
day.
Using
the
gram
per
mile
emissions
factors
presented
above
and
the
VMT/
day,
emissions
reductions
were
calculated
in
tons
per
day.
It
should
be
noted
that
the
estimated
VOC
daily
emissions
reduction
was
less
than
one
thousandth
of
a
ton
per
day,
and
therefore
was
not
used
in
the
photochemical
modeling
analysis.

NOx
and
VOC
emissions
reductions
have
not
been
quantified
for
the
installation
of
the
gas
collection
system
on
the
City's
municipal
solid
waste
landfill
nor
for
the
energy
conservation
program,
and
therefore
are
not
included
in
the
2007
control
measures
modeling
results.
This
is
the
result
of
insufficient
information
necessary
to
quantify
emissions
reductions
for
both
control
measures
at
this
time.
However,
the
City
is
currently
partnering
with
the
EPA,
DEQ,
Louisiana
Department
of
Natural
Resources,
Louisiana
State
University,
AEP­
SWEPCO
(
the
local
electrical
utility),
and
other
agencies
on
an
innovative
program
to
calculate
emission
reduction
credits
resulting
from
its
energy
efficiency
initiative.
This
control
strategy
will
follow
EPA's
draft
guidance
in
developing
the
reductions,
and
the
energy
savings
will
be
tracked
Section
6
Future­
Year
Modeling
Applications

6­
8
Final
AQIP
032904
for
verification
via
a
performance
contract.
Emission
reduction
estimates
will
be
generated
with
EPA's
assistance
and
will
be
determined
prior
to
the
state's
SIP
submission
in
December,
2004.
Section
6
Future­
Year
Modeling
Applications

6­
9
Final
AQIP
032904
Table
6­
2
presents
a
summary
of
these
local
control
measure
commitments,
estimates
of
their
potential
emissions
reductions.
Those
control
measures
with
estimated
emissions
reductions
were
included
in
the
2007
control
measures
and
2012
maintenance
modeling
analyses.

Table
6­
2
Local
Control
Measure
Commitments
Control
Measures
Emissions
Reductions
(
tons/
day)

ID.
Description
Emission
Type
NOx
VOC
Location
1
Center
Point
Energy
Plant
Modification1
Elevated
Point
Source
2.56
0.135
Bossier
Parish
2
General
Motors
Plant
Modification2
Low
Level
Point
Source
1.37
Caddo
Parish
3
Landfill
Gas
Recovery
Project3
Area
­­
­­
Caddo
Parish
4
Energy
Conservation
Program4
Area
­­
­­
Shreveport,
Caddo
Parish
5
Intelligent
Transportation
Systems5
Mobile
0.0095
0.048
Shreveport,
Caddo
Parish
6
Replace
a
diesel
bus
with
hybrid
electric
bus6
Mobile
0.002
­­
Shreveport,
Caddo
Parish
Notes:
1
Centerpoint
Energy
has
proposed
to
reduce
emissions
at
its
natural
gas
processing
plant,
including
an
approximate
90%
reduction
in
NOx
emissions.
2
General
Motors
plant
installed
a
new
VOC
abatement
system
as
part
of
their
new
product
line
in
October
2003.
Estimated
VOC
emission
reduction
of
500
tons
per
year.
3
City
of
Shreveport
installed
a
landfill
gas
collection
system
at
the
City's
landfill.
The
landfill
gas
is
piped
to
a
local
General
Motors
facility
for
use
as
boiler
fuel.
The
pipeline
began
operations
in
November
2003.
Emissions
reductions
have
not
been
calculated
for
this
control
measure
by
the
Louisiana
Department
of
Natural
Resources
(
LDNR).
4
City
of
Shreveport
will
enter
into
a
20­
year
contract
in
2004
with
Johnson
Controls,
Inc.
to
install
energy
conservation
equipment
in
33
city
buildings.
Emissions
reductions
have
not
been
calculated
for
this
control
measure
by
the
LDNR.
EPA
and
LDNR
are
collaborating
to
develop
methods
for
quantifying
emissions
reduction
benefits
for
energy
conservation
programs,
which
may
be
used
in
a
future
update
of
the
photochemical
modeling
analysis.
5
Intelligent
Transportation
Systems
installed
by
the
City
of
Shreveport
to
synchronize
and
improve
traffic
signal
operations
at
24
intersections
located
in
an
area
bounded
by
LA1
(
Youree
Drive),
LA511
(
E70th
Street),
and
LA
526
(
Bert
Kouns
Industrial
Loop).
6
City
of
Shreveport
will
purchase
and
place
into
operation
one
hybrid
electric
bus
as
one
of
its
46
operating
buses
in
2005.
NOx
emissions
reductions
are
based
on
a
55
percent
reduction
in
NOx
(
16.7
g/
mi
NOx
reduction)
and
95.4
vehicle
miles
traveled
per
day
(
MOBILE6
National
Average).

7­
1
Final
AQIP
032904
Section
7
Model
Attainment
Demonstration
This
section
presents
results
from
the
application
of
the
draft
EPA
eight­
hour
ozone
attainment
demonstration
procedures.
These
procedures
are
outlined
in
the
draft
guidance
document
on
using
models
and
other
analyses
to
demonstrate
future
attainment
of
the
eight­
hour
ozone
NAAQS
(
EPA,
1999).
They
were
adapted
for
the
Shreveport
modeling
domain
and
simulation
periods
and
applied
using
the
results
from
the
final
control­
measures
scenario
as
presented
in
Section
6.5.
The
draft
EPA
guidance
on
eight­
hour
ozone
modeling
recommends
that
an
attainment
demonstration
include
three
elements:
(
1)
a
modeled
attainment
test,
(
2)
a
screening
test,
and
(
3)
a
weight­
of­
evidence
determination.
A
detailed
discussion
of
this
attainment
demonstration
is
presented
in
Section
8
of
the
Technical
Support
Document.

7.1
Summary
of
Attainment
Demonstration
The
attainment
and
screening
tests
and
additional
corroborative
analyses
indicate
that
the
Shreveport
EAC
area
will
continue
to
be
in
attainment
of
the
eight­
hour
ozone
NAAQS
by
2007,
without
the
need
for
any
additional
local
controls.
In
addition,
the
values
of
the
simulated
ozone
exposure
metrics
indicate
a
significant
but
not
large
reduction
in
eight­
hour
ozone
for
the
2007
control
measures
simulation
­
the
number
of
grid
cells
with
hourly
or
eight­
hour
ozone
concentrations
greater
than
84
ppbv
is
reduced
by
about
30
percent
and
the
amount
of
ozone
greater
than
this
value
is
reduced
by
about
50
percent.
While
a
good
portion
of
this
reduction
is
achieved
for
the
2007
baseline,
some
additional
reduction
is
simulated
for
the
control
measures.
These
measures
are
expected
to
result
in
meaningful
further
ozone
reductions
by
2007,
compared
to
the
baseline
values.
This
attests
to
the
effectiveness
of
the
control
measures
in
supporting
the
attainment
demonstration
for
2007
and
adds
to
the
strength
of
the
modeled
attainment
demonstration
in
that
attainment
is
being
achieved
through
a
combination
of
national,
regional,
and
local
control
measures.

Both
of
the
monitoring
sites
in
the
Shreveport
EAC
area
have
future­
year
estimated
design
values
for
eight­
hour
ozone
that
are
less
than
or
equal
to
84
ppbv.
The
2007
EDV
for
the
key
Shreveport
monitoring
site
is
84
ppbv
if
the
1999­
2001
design
value
is
used
and
less
than
80
ppbv
if
the
2000­
2002
or
2001­
2003
design
values
are
used.
Similarly
the
value
is
77
ppbv
if
a
meteorologically
adjusted
design
value
for
1999­
2001
is
used.

Based
on
the
values
for
the
other
years
as
well
as
the
indications
from
the
meteorological
adjustment,
use
of
the
2000­
2002
design
value
likely
represents
a
true
worst
case
for
Shreveport
for
2007.
The
1999­
2001
design
value,
as
used
for
the
modeled
attainment
test,
is
one
of
the
highest
recorded
in
recent
years.
The
design
value
analysis
suggests
that
this
is
in
part
due
to
more
days
with
ozone
conductive
meteorological
conditions
in
both
1999
and
2000
than
occur
during
a
typical
year.
It
is
also
worth
noting
that
major
road
construction
was
underway
in
the
Shreveport
area
during
all
of
2000
(
24
hours
a
day,
from
I­
49
to
Westerfield
in
Bossier
City),
and
that
Section
7
Model
Attainment
Demonstration

7­
2
Final
AQIP
032904
this
resulted
heavier
than
normal
traffic
congestion
along
the
interstate.
Thus,
higher
than
normal
emissions
may
have
also
contributed
to
the
high
ozone
observed
during
this
time
period.

Therefore,
the
modeled
attainment
test
is
passed,
the
screening
test
is
not
required,
and
all
weight
of
evidence
indicates
that
the
Shreveport
EAC
area
will
continue
to
be
in
attainment
of
the
eight­
hour
ozone
NAAQS
in
2007.

8­
1
Final
AQIP
032904
Section
8
2012
Maintenance
Modeling
Analysis
One
of
the
requirements
of
the
Early
Action
Compact
is
to
evaluate
maintenance
of
the
eight­
hour
ozone
NAAQS
for
2012,
five
years
beyond
the
mandated
attainment
date
of
2007.
As
such,
a
2012
baseline
emission
inventory
was
developed
for
the
Shreveport
modeling
episodes
and
2012
baseline
simulations
were
conducted.
The
development
of
the
2012
baseline
emission
inventory
followed
the
same
procedures
as
those
used
in
developing
the
2007
emission
inventory
(
See
Section
6.1).
Specific
details
are
presented
by
source
category
are
presented
in
Section
9
of
the
Technical
Support
Document.

8.1
Summary
of
2012
Modeling
Emissions
Inventory
Figures
9­
1
through
9­
4
in
the
Technical
Support
Document
provide
emission
summaries
for
each
major
source
category
for
NOx,
VOC
and
CO,
in
tons
per
day.
The
low­
level
emissions
include
anthropogenic
(
area,
non­
road,
on­
road
motor
vehicle,
and
low­
level
point
sources)
and
biogenic
sources.
These
figures
present
a
comparison
of
total
emissions
for
each
of
the
Shreveport
Grid
3
domain
and
the
Shreveport
4­
parish
area
for
2000,
2007,
and
2012.
For
Grid
3,
the
expected
changes
in
emissions
between
2000
and
2012
result
in
a
24
percent
reduction
in
anthropogenic
NOx
emissions,
a
21
percent
reduction
in
anthropogenic
VOC
emissions,
and
a
25
percent
reduction
in
CO
emissions.
The
figures
indicate
that
precursor
NOx,
VOC,
and
CO
emissions
in
the
Shreveport
regional
domain
and
the
4­
parish
area
are
expected
to
decrease
further
in
2012
compared
to
2007
as
a
result
of
vehicle
fleet
turnover
and
a
number
of
new
national
rules
affecting
on­
road
and
off­
road
engine
and
fuel
requirements.

8.2
Maintenance
Modeling
Results
for
2012
The
2012
baseline
simulation
was
conducted
for
all
three
of
the
Shreveport
EAC
modeling
episodes.
Section
9
of
the
Technical
Support
Document
(
Table
9­
1)
presents
a
comparison
of
one­
hour
and
eight­
hour
metrics
for
the
2000
current
year
simulation
and
the
2012
baseline
simulation.
Compared
to
the
metrics
for
the
2007
baseline
simulation,
the
results
for
2012
show
substantial
additional
reductions
in
all
of
the
metrics
with
reductions
from
the
2000
current
year
between
40
and
70
percent.
Table
8­
1
presents
the
maximum
EDVs
for
2012
for
the
Shreveport
area
monitors
using
both
the
1999­
2001
and
2000­
2002
base
year
design
values.
The
EDVs
for
2012
are
lower
for
these
monitors
by
2
to
3
ppbv
compared
to
the
2007
baseline.
The
modeling
results
indicate
that,
despite
the
expected
growth
in
population
between
2007
and
2012,
the
expected
emission
reductions
reflecting
the
local
EAC
measures
and
national
measures
provides
for
further
improvement
in
ozone
air
quality
and
maintenance
of
the
eight­
hour
ozone
NAAQS
in
the
Shreveport
EAC
area.

The
summaries
of
the
2012
baseline
emissions
for
each
modeling
episode
are
provided
in
Section
9
of
the
Technical
Support
Document.
Section
8
2012
Maintenance
Modeling
Analysis

8­
2
Final
AQIP
032904
Table
8­
1
Maximum
Observed
and
Estimated
Design
Values
(
EDVs)
for
the
Shreveport
EAC
Area
for
the
2012
Baseline
Simulation
1999
 
2001
2000
 
2002
Site
Observed
DV
EDV
(
15­
km)
EDV
(
9­
cell)
Observed
DV
EDV
(
15­
km)
EDV
(
9­
cell)

Caddo
Parish
83
72
72
79
68
68
Shreveport
90
81
83
84
76
77

9­
1
Final
AQIP
032904
Section
9
Contingency
Plan
The
CACAC
recognized
that
while
the
local
MSA
is
currently
in
attainment
and
is
forecast
to
remain
in
attainment
for
the
foreseeable
future,
circumstances
could
arise
that
could
cause
ozone
levels
to
rise
above
the
predicted
levels.

Consequently,
this
AQIP
also
contains
a
"
contingency"
provision,
which
would
require
that
the
Committee
reconvene
in
the
event
that
the
local
design
value
reaches
or
exceeds
an
eight­
hour
ozone
level
of
85
ppbv
at
some
point
in
the
future
during
the
term
of
the
EAC.
Results
from
control
measures
simulations
indicate
that
a
10
percent
reduction
in
NOx
alone
(
or
NOx
and
VOC
combined)
would
reduce
the
MSA's
eight­
hour
ozone
design
value
by
2
ppbv.
The
2007
modeling
results
also
indicate
that
NOx
emissions
from
area
and
non­
road
sources
and
elevated
point
sources
are
the
largest
local
source­
category
contributors
to
the
future
ozone
concentrations
in
the
4­
parish
area.
The
CACAC
would
use
this
information
as
a
starting
point
for
developing
and
implementing
new
emissions
control
measures,
should
such
be
needed.

However,
rather
than
commit
to
particular
contingency
control
strategies
at
the
outset
of
the
AQIP,
the
CACAC
believes
it
would
be
more
prudent
to
keep
all
local
control
measure
options
open
at
this
point
so
that
the
particular
circumstances
which
trigger
a
contingency
(
as
well
as
ongoing/
updated
emissions
inventories
and
modeling
analyses)
are
properly
taken
into
account
in
the
control
measure
selection
process,
should
such
action
become
necessary.

In
the
event
that
eight­
hour
ozone
concentrations
meet
or
exceed
the
85
ppbv
level,
the
following
proposed
contingency
plan
would
be
implemented:


CACAC
will
meet
within
2
weeks
of
the
exceedance
to
develop
initial
work
plan;


Control
measures
will
be
selected
within
6
months
and
submitted
to
DEQ;


Within
12
months
after
that,
any
required
rulemaking/
ordinance
adoption
will
be
completed;
and
any
required
amendments
to
the
State
Implementation
Plan
will
be
completed,
and

Within
6
months
after
that,
the
selected
control
measures
will
be
implemented.

10­
1
Final
AQIP
032904
Section
10
Conclusions
The
results
of
the
eight­
hour
ozone
attainment
demonstration
modeling
analysis
indicate
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA
will
be
in
attainment
of
the
eight­
hour
NAAQS
for
ozone
in
2007,
without
the
need
for
local
control
measures,
and
that
the
recommended
local
control
measures
will
create
additional
modest
reductions
in
ozone
concentrations
in
the
MSA.
In
addition,
the
maintenance
modeling
results
indicate
that,
despite
the
expected
growth
in
population
between
2007
and
2012,
the
expected
emission
reductions
reflecting
the
local
EAC
measures
and
national
measures
provides
for
further
improvement
in
ozone
air
quality
and
maintenance
of
the
eight­
hour
ozone
NAAQS
in
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA.

In
the
event
that
the
Shreveport­
Bossier
City
MSA
should
reach
or
exceed
an
eighthour
ozone
level
of
85
ppbv,
the
CACAC
would
implement
its
contingency
plan,
ensuring
that
early
and
effective
actions
would
be
taken
to
return
the
MSA
to
attainment
status.
