APPENDIX
G
2007
BASE
CASE
AND
SENSITIVITY
ANALYSES
SAN
ANTONIO
EAC
REGION
ATTAINMENT
DEMONSTRATION
MARCH
2004
G­
2
Appendix
G
Table
of
Contents
Page
Introduction
                              .
G­
6
2007
Base
Case
                            .
G­
14
2007
Base
Case
Performance
Evaluation
                 ..
G­
14
Tile
Plots
                            .
G­
14
Comparisons
Between
Model
Refinements
             ..
G­
21
Sensitivity
Tests
                         .
G­
23
Zero­
out
Runs:
Urban
Areas
                ..
G­
23
Zero­
out
Runs:
Point
Sources
                
G­
25
Incremental
Removal
of
VOC
and
NOx
Precursor
Emissions
  ..
G­
35
Summary
of
Modifications
to
the
1999
Base
and
2007
Future
Cases
and
Resulting
Design
Values
                     ..
G­
38
References
                              ..
G­
47
G­
3
Appendix
G
List
of
Tables
Page
Table
G­
1
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Anthropogenic
VOC
Emissions
in
the
Four­
county
SAER
for
a
Typical
Weekday
(
Wednesday)
 ..
G­
6
Table
G­
2
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Anthropogenic
NOx
Emissions
in
the
Four­
county
SAER
for
a
Typical
Weekday
(
Wednesday)  
G­
7
Table
G­
3
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Predicted
Maximum
8­
hour
Average
Ozone
Concentrations
by
Monitor,
September
15th
­
20th
                           .
G­
14
Table
G­
4
Comparison
of
Predicted
Peak
8­
hour
Concentrations
for
Final
UT
and
AACOG
Base
and
Future
Case
Runs
         .
G­
22
Table
G­
5
Modifications
to
the1999
Base
Case
and
2007
Future
Case
as
Part
of
the
QA/
QC
Process
and
Resulting
Peak
8­
hour
Predictions
at
CAMS
23
Associated
with
Each
Run
            
G­
39
Table
G­
6
Modifications
to
the1999
Base
Case
and
2007
Future
Case
as
Part
of
the
QA/
QC
Process
and
Resulting
Peak
8­
hour
Predictions
at
CAMS
58
Associated
with
Each
Run
            
G­
41
Table
G­
7
Modifications
to
the1999
Base
Case
and
2007
Future
Case
as
Part
of
the
QA/
QC
Process
and
Resulting
Peak
8­
hour
Predictions
at
CAMS
59
Associated
with
Each
Run
            
G­
43
Table
G­
8
Modifications
to
the1999
Base
Case
and
2007
Future
Case
as
Part
of
the
QA/
QC
Process
and
Resulting
Peak
8­
hour
Predictions
at
CAMS
678
Associated
with
Each
Run            
G­
45
G­
4
Appendix
G
List
of
Figures
Page
Figure
G­
1
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Anthropogenic
NOx
Precursor
Emissions
from
On­
road
Sources
within
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Wednesday,
September
15th
               
G­
8
Figure
G­
2
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Anthropogenic
NOx
Precursor
Emissions
from
Area/
non­
road
Sources
within
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Wednesday,
September
15th               ..
G­
9
Figure
G­
3
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Anthropogenic
NOx
Precursor
Emissions
from
Low­
level
Point
Sources
within
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Wednesday,
September
15th
          
G­
10
Figure
G­
4
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Anthropogenic
VOC
Precursor
Emissions
from
On­
road
Sources
within
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Wednesday,
September
15th
               .
G­
11
Figure
G­
5
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Anthropogenic
VOC
Precursor
Emissions
from
Area/
non­
road
Sources
within
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Wednesday,
September
15th
          
G­
12
Figure
G­
6
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Anthropogenic
VOC
Precursor
Emissions
from
Low­
level
Point
Sources
within
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Wednesday,
September
15th
          
G­
13
Figure
G­
7
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Predicted
Daily
Maximum
8­
hour
Ozone
Concentrations
in
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Wednesday,
September
15th
                      ..
G­
15
Figure
G­
8
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Predicted
Daily
Maximum
8­
hour
Ozone
Concentrations
in
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Thursday,
September
16th
                      ..
G­
16
Figure
G­
9
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Predicted
Daily
Maximum
8­
hour
Ozone
Concentrations
in
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Friday,
September
17th
                      ..
G­
17
Figure
G­
10
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Predicted
Daily
Maximum
8­
hour
Ozone
Concentrations
in
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Saturday,
September
18th                       
G­
18
Figure
G­
11
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Predicted
Daily
Maximum
8­
hour
Ozone
Concentrations
in
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Sunday,
September
19th
                      .
G­
19
Figure
G­
12
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Predicted
Daily
Maximum
8­
hour
Ozone
Concentrations
in
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Monday,
September
20th                       
G­
20
Figure
G­
13
Predicted
Reductions
in
Ozone
Concentrations
at
CAMS
23
after
Zeroing
Out
Anthropogenic
Precursor
Emissions
for
the
11­
county
Houston
Area,
2­
county
Corpus
Christi
Area,
and
5­
county
Austin
Area
from
the
1999
Base
Case
and
2007
Future
Case
     .
G­
24
Figure
G­
14
Predicted
Reductions
in
Ozone
Concentrations
at
CAMS
58
after
Zeroing
Out
Anthropogenic
Precursor
Emissions
for
the
11­
county
Houston
Area,
2­
county
Corpus
Christi
Area,
and
5­
county
Austin
Area
from
the
1999
Base
Case
and
2007
Future
Case
     .
G­
25
Figure
G­
15
Predicted
Reductions
in
Ozone
Concentrations
at
CAMS
23
after
Removing
Various
Point
Source
Emissions
within
the
SAER
 
Comparison
between
1999
and
2007              
G­
26
G­
5
Appendix
G
List
of
Figures
(
continued)
Page
Figure
G­
16
Predicted
Reductions
in
Ozone
Concentrations
at
CAMS
58
after
Removing
Various
Point
Source
Emissions
within
the
SAER
 
Comparison
between
1999
and
2007
         .
G­
27
Figure
G­
17
Comparison
of
Zero
Out
Runs
Conducted
for
CPS
Power
Plants,
Cement
Kilns,
and
Toyota
Manufacturing
Plant
on
the
2007
Future
Case,
Wednesday,
September
15th
          ..
G­
29
Figure
G­
18
Comparison
of
Zero
Out
Runs
Conducted
for
CPS
Power
Plants,
Cement
Kilns,
and
Toyota
Manufacturing
Plant
on
the
2007
Future
Case,
Thursday,
September
16th            
G­
30
Figure
G­
19
Comparison
of
Zero
Out
Runs
Conducted
for
CPS
Power
Plants,
Cement
Kilns,
and
Toyota
Manufacturing
Plant
on
the
2007
Future
Case,
Friday,
September
17th             .
G­
31
Figure
G­
20
Comparison
of
Zero
Out
Runs
Conducted
for
CPS
Power
Plants,
Cement
Kilns,
and
Toyota
Manufacturing
Plant
on
the
2007
Future
Case,
Saturday,
September
18th               .
G­
32
Figure
G­
21
Comparison
of
Zero
Out
Runs
Conducted
for
CPS
Power
Plants,
Cement
Kilns,
and
Toyota
Manufacturing
Plant
on
the
2007
Future
Case,
Sunday,
September
19th
               ..
G­
33
Figure
G­
22
Comparison
of
Zero
Out
Runs
Conducted
for
CPS
Power
Plants,
Cement
Kilns,
and
Toyota
Manufacturing
Plant
on
the
2007
Future
Case,
Monday,
September
20th                
G­
34
Figure
G­
23
Predicted
Ozone
Concentrations
at
CAMS
23
after
Removing
Local
NOx
and
VOC
Emissions
from
CAMx
Run
18,
Averages
for
September
15
­
20,
1999
and
2007              .
G­
36
Figure
G­
24
Predicted
Ozone
Concentrations
at
CAMS
58
after
Removing
Local
NOx
and
VOC
Emissions
from
CAMx
Run
18,
Average
for
September
15
­
20,
1999
and
2007              .
G­
37
G­
6
INTRODUCTION
To
create
a
2007
future
case
on
which
to
model
attainment,
certain
adjustments
were
made
to
the
1999
base
case.
Meteorological
fields,
boundary/
initial
conditions,
dry
deposition
algorithms,
chemical
mechanisms
and
other
model
configurations
remained
identical
between
the
September
1999
and
2007
simulations.
However,
VOC,
NOx,
and
CO
emission
estimations
from
anthropogenic
sources
were
adjusted
to
account
for
such
factors
as
anticipated
growth/
decline
in
population
and
employment
and
the
impact
of
federal,
state
and
regional
emission
reduction
measures.
The
biogenic
emissions
inventory
(
EI)
for
the
2007
base
was
the
same
as
that
used
for
the
1999
base
case,
in
accordance
with
EPA
guidelines.

Tables
G­
1
and
G­
2
provide
comparisons
between
the
1999
anthropogenic
modeling
EI
developed
for
the
four­
county
San
Antonio
Early
Action
Compact
Region
(
SAER)
and
the
2007
anthropogenic
modeling
EI.
Despite
projections
in
population
growth
in
all
four
SAER
counties
between
1999
and
2007,
most
emissions
categories
are
expected
to
decrease
between
the
base
year
and
attainment
year.
Overall,
anthropogenic
VOC
emissions
for
the
SAER
were
projected
to
decrease
by
20.88%
between
1999
and
2007;
likewise,
anthropogenic
NOx
emissions
were
projected
to
decrease
by
30.11%
during
the
same
timeframe.

Table
G­
1.
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Anthropogenic
VOC
Emissions
in
the
Fourcounty
SAER
for
a
Typical
Weekday
(
Wednesday).

County
On­
Road
(
tpd)
Area
/
Non­
road
(
tpd)
Point
(
tpd)
Total
(
tpd)
1999
Bexar
75.52
111.98
6.30
193.80
Comal
6.15
6.70
0.34
13.20
Guadalupe
5.57
7.77
0.45
13.78
Wilson
1.57
3.73
0.07
5.37
Total
(
tpd)
88.81
130.18
7.17
226.15
2007
Bexar
42.42
98.55
11.82
152.79
Comal
3.85
5.53
0.52
9.90
Guadalupe
3.42
6.98
1.10
11.50
Wilson
0.98
3.68
0.07
4.74
Total
(
tpd)
50.67
114.75
13.50
178.93
%
Difference
between
1999
and
2007
Bexar
­
43.83%
­
11.99%
87.47%
­
21.16%
Comal
­
37.42%
­
17.45%
50.94%
­
24.98%
Guadalupe
­
38.63%
­
10.08%
145.00%
­
16.58%
Wilson
­
37.42%
­
1.31%
0.00%
­
11.82%
Total
­
42.95%
­
11.85%
88.44%
­
20.88%
G­
7
Table
G­
2.
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Anthropogenic
NOx
Emissions
in
the
Fourcounty
SAER
for
a
Typical
Weekday
(
Wednesday).

County
On­
Road
(
tpd)
Area
/
Non­
road
(
tpd)
Point
(
tpd)
Total
(
tpd)
1999
Bexar
119.57
39.39
88.59
247.55
Comal
11.64
3.57
12.16
27.38
Guadalupe
10.47
4.24
0.51
15.21
Wilson
1.89
0.93
0.00
2.82
Total
(
tpd)
143.58
48.12
101.26
292.96
2007
Bexar
67.45
39.18
53.24
159.86
Comal
7.07
3.70
13.77
24.53
Guadalupe
6.47
3.40
8.07
17.95
Wilson
1.34
1.04
0.00
2.39
Total
(
tpd)
82.34
47.32
75.08
204.74
%
Difference
between
1999
and
2007
Bexar
­
43.59%
­
0.53%
­
39.90%
­
35.42%
Comal
­
39.30%
3.46%
13.22%
­
10.39%
Guadalupe
­
38.15%
­
19.65%
1492.19%
17.99%
Wilson
­
29.00%
12.17%
0.00%
­
15.44%
Total
­
42.65%
­
1.67%
­
25.85%
­
30.11%

Figures
G­
1
through
G­
3
provide
graphical
comparisons
of
the
anthropogenic
NOx
EIs
for
1999
and
2007
by
source
category,
both
in
terms
of
magnitude
of
concentrations
and
spatial
allocation
of
plumes.
Similarly,
figures
G­
4
through
G­
6
provide
graphical
comparisons
between
estimated
1999
and
2007
anthropogenic
VOC
emissions
inventories.
As
indicated
by
these
pictures,
on­
road
precursor
emissions
are
concentrated
in
urban
areas.
By
comparison,
area/
non­
road
and
point
source
emissions
are
more
dispersed.
It
is
also
evident
that,
overall,
most
anthropogenic
emission
categories
are
expected
to
decrease
between
1999
and
2007.
G­
8
Figure
G­
1.
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Anthropogenic
NOx
Precursor
Emissions
from
On­
road
Sources
within
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Wednesday,
September
15th.

1999
2007
San
Antonio
Austin
Victoria
Corpus
Christi
G­
9
Figure
G­
2.
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Anthropogenic
NOx
Precursor
Emissions
from
Area/
non­
road
Sources
within
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Wednesday,
September
15th.

1999
2007
G­
10
Figure
G­
3.
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Anthropogenic
NOx
Precursor
Emissions
from
Low­
level
Point
Sources
within
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Wednesday,
September
15th.

1999
2007
G­
11
Figure
G­
4.
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Anthropogenic
VOC
Precursor
Emissions
from
On­
road
Sources
within
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Wednesday,
September
15th.

1999
2007
G­
12
Figure
G­
5.
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Anthropogenic
VOC
Precursor
Emissions
from
Area/
non­
road
Sources
within
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Wednesday,
September
15th.

1999
2007
G­
13
Figure
G­
6.
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Anthropogenic
VOC
Precursor
Emissions
from
Low­
level
Point
Sources
within
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Wednesday,
September
15th.

1999
2007
G­
14
2007
BASE
CASE
Once
the
1999
base
case
was
modified
by
replacing
the
photochemical
model's
emissions
inputs
(
i.
e.,
replacing
the
1999
local,
state,
and
regional
anthropogenic
EI
with
a
2007
local,
state,
and
regional
EI),
the
model
was
rerun.
The
resulting
episode
projection
represents
the
2007
future
case
for
the
SAER.

The
impact
of
modifying
the
anthropogenic
local
and
regional
emissions
inventories
between
the
1999
base
and
2007
future
cases
is
demonstrated
in
table
G­
3.
As
shown,
the
2007
projection
predicts
a
decrease
in
ozone
concentration
at
each
San
Antonio
monitoring
station
(
7x7
array
of
cells
near
monitor)
compared
to
the
1999
base
case
predictions.

Table
G­
3.
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Predicted
Maximum
8­
hour
Average
Ozone
Concentrations
by
Monitor,
September
15th
­
20th.

CAMS
Station
1999
Predicted
8­
hr
Max.
Ozone
2007
Predicted
8­
hr
Max.
Ozone
1999­
2007
Percent
Change
CAMS
23
89.0
ppb
84.5
ppb
­
5.0%
CAMS
58
87.8
ppb
82.8
ppb
­
5.6%
CAMS
59
78.1
ppb
73.6
ppb
­
5.7%
CAMS
678
80.1
ppb
77.4
ppb
­
3.3%

2007
BASE
CASE
PERFORMANCE
EVALUATION
Appendix
E
describes
a
variety
of
tests
that
were
conducted
on
the
1999
base
case
in
order
to
evaluate
model
performance.
For
a
future
case,
such
as
the
2007
projection,
methods
of
analyzing
model
performance
are
more
limited.
Ozone
metrics
and
several
other
types
of
analyses
that
compare
the
model's
predictions
with
actual
measurements
cannot
be
performed
prior
to
compilation
of
those
actual
future
measurements.
As
a
consequence,
performance
analyses
conducted
on
the
2007
future
case
were
restricted
to
tile
plots,
comparisons
between
model
refinements,
and
sensitivity
runs.

Tile
Plots
Tile
plots
provide
an
indication
of
where
the
model
is
or
isn't
performing
correctly
given
known
changes
to
modeling
input
in
the
future
case.
These
plots
are
visual
representations
of
the
model's
predictions
and
provide
such
information
as
when
and
where
the
model
predicts
urban
plumes.
The
following
tile
plots
(
figures
G­
7
through
G­
12)
represent
comparisons
between
the
1999
and
2007
8­
hour
daily
maximum
ozone
concentrations
within
the
modeling
domain
for
each
day
of
the
primary
episode.
G­
15
Figure
G­
7.
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Predicted
Daily
Maximum
8­
hour
Ozone
Concentrations
in
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Wednesday,
September
15th.
1999
2007
G­
16
Figure
G­
8.
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Predicted
Daily
Maximum
8­
hour
Ozone
Concentrations
in
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Thursday,
September
16th.
1999
2007
G­
17
Figure
G­
9.
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Predicted
Daily
Maximum
8­
hour
Ozone
Concentrations
in
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Friday,
September
17th.
1999
2007
G­
18
Figure
G­
10.
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Predicted
Daily
Maximum
8­
hour
Ozone
Concentrations
in
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Saturday,
September
18th.
1999
2007
G­
19
Figure
G­
11.
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Predicted
Daily
Maximum
8­
hour
Ozone
Concentrations
in
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Sunday,
September
19th.
1999
2007
G­
20
Figure
G­
12.
Comparison
of
1999
and
2007
Predicted
Daily
Maximum
8­
hour
Ozone
Concentrations
in
the
4­
km
Subdomain
on
Monday,
September
20th.
1999
2007
G­
21
As
demonstrated
by
these
plots,
urban
plumes
are
replicated
predictably,
both
in
terms
of
intensity
and
spatial
allocation.
Peak
ozone
concentrations
are
predicted
downwind
of
city
centers
and
major
point
sources
in
these
tile
plots.
In
addition,
the
overall
reduction
in
NOx,
VOC,
and
CO
emissions
(
local
and
regional)
between
1999
and
2007
reduced
the
magnitude
of
the
ozone
plumes
in
each
of
the
daily
1999­
2007
comparisons.

Comparisons
Between
Model
Refinements
As
described
in
appendix
E,
the
original
September
1999
model
was
developed
by
ENVIRON
and
refined
through
a
collaboration
between
ENVIRON,
UT
Austin1,
and
AACOG
(
meteorological
model
and
air
quality
input
refinements).
Subsequently,
the
model
was
provided
to
the
Texas
Near
Nonattainment
(
NNA)
partners2,
or
their
contractors,
for
further
modifications.
These
modifications
included
refinement
of
the
emissions
inventory
inputs,
development
of
the
future
case,
and
clean
air
strategy
analyses.
Because
the
model
was
modified
by
more
than
one
agency
during
this
process,
there
was
a
concern
that
the
various
agencies'
models
would
become
dissimilar
and
provide
different
predictions
for
the
base
case,
future
case,
and
control
strategy
runs.

A
great
amount
of
effort
was
spent
ensuring
that
the
Austin
and
San
Antonio
base
and
future
cases
contained
identical
input.
Often
this
involved
discussions
between
the
two
agencies,
as
well
as
TCEQ,
regarding
the
most
appropriate
EI
data
for
local
and
regional
areas.
Discrepancies
in
emissions
inputs
were
corrected
prior
to
the
final
AACOG
and
UT
runs.

An
analysis
was
conducted
by
AACOG
staff
to
determine
any
differences
between
the
final
1999
base
case
refined
by
UT
Austin
and
the
final
base
case
refined
by
AACOG,
based
on
predicted
concentrations
at
two
Austin
monitors.
The
2007
future
cases
developed
by
UT
and
AACOG
were
similarly
analyzed.
The
results
of
these
analyses
are
provided
in
table
G­
4.
The
table
provides
daily
peak
8­
hour
predictions
within
the
7x7
array
of
cells
near
the
Murchison
and
Audubon
monitors
for
the
1999
and
2007
base
cases.

As
shown,
the
differences
between
predictions
by
AACOG's
final
run
(
labeled
1999_
sos.
f)
and
UT's
final
run
(
labeled
1999_
v3)
are
insignificant.
With
regards
to
the
Murchison
monitor,
the
average
difference
(
six
episode
days)
in
ozone
concentrations
between
the
two
1999
base
cases
was
0.00
ppb,
while
the
average
difference
at
the
Audubon
monitor
was
0.05
ppb.
For
the
2007
future
cases,
the
average
differences
in
peak
ozone
concentrations
for
the
six­
day
episode
was
­
0.06
ppb
(
Murchison)
and
 
0.04
ppb
(
Audubon).
These
results
provide
additional,
independent
verification
of
the
performance
of
the
1999
base
case
and
2007
future
case.

1
UT
Austin
acted
on
behalf
of
Austin
modeling.
2
Development
of
the
September
1999
photochemical
model
simulation
was
a
collaboration
between
TCEQ
and
four
Texas
NNAs:
Austin,
Corpus
Christi,
San
Antonio,
and
Victoria.
G­
22
Table
G­
4.
Comparison
of
Predicted
Peak
8­
hour
Concentrations
for
Final
UT
and
AACOG
Base
and
Future
Case
Runs.

Monitor
UT
1999_
v3
AACOG
1999_
sos.
f
Average
Difference
UT
2007_
v3
AACOG
2007.
f
Average
Difference
UT
RRF
AACOG
RRF
Average
Difference
Days
Date
MURC
84.6
84.6
0.00
80.2
80.3
­
0.06
0.948
0.949
­
0.001
6
9/
15
 
9/
20
AUDU
81
80.9
0.05
76.7
76.7
­
0.04
0.948
0.948
0.000
6
9/
15
 
9/
20
Monitor
UT
1999_
v3
AACOG
1999_
sos.
f
Daily
Difference
UT
2007_
v3
AACOG
2007.
f
Daily
Difference
UT
RRF
AACOG
RRF
Daily
Difference
Days
Date
MURC
77.8
77.8
0.0
75.1
75.1
0.0
0.964
0.965
­
0.001
1
9/
15
MURC
75.5
75.4
0.1
72.8
72.8
0.0
0.964
0.966
­
0.002
1
9/
16
MURC
86.8
86.7
0.1
82.2
82.2
0.0
0.947
0.948
­
0.001
1
9/
17
MURC
84.5
84.4
0.1
79.8
79.8
0.0
0.945
0.946
­
0.001
1
9/
18
MURC
89.6
89.7
­
0.1
83.4
83.4
0.0
0.932
0.930
0.002
1
9/
19
MURC
93.6
93.6
0.0
88.2
88.3
­
0.1
0.942
0.942
0.000
1
9/
20
AUDU
76.2
76.1
0.1
73.7
73.7
0.0
0.968
0.969
­
0.001
1
9/
15
AUDU
78.2
78.2
0.0
74.6
74.7
­
0.1
0.954
0.955
­
0.001
1
9/
16
AUDU
87.4
87.4
0.0
82.2
82.2
0.0
0.94
0.941
­
0.001
1
9/
17
AUDU
84.5
84.4
0.1
78.8
78.8
0.0
0.933
0.934
­
0.001
1
9/
18
AUDU
89.4
89.5
­
0.1
82.9
82.9
0.0
0.928
0.927
0.001
1
9/
19
AUDU
70.1
70.2
­
0.1
68.1
68.2
­
0.1
0.972
0.971
0.001
1
9/
20
G­
23
Sensitivity
Tests
Sensitivity
tests
are
used
throughout
model
development
as
diagnostic
tools.
These
tests
are
conducted
by
perturbing
model
input.
Results
of
sensitivity
tests
are
analyzed
in
terms
of
whether
the
model
responded
to
changes
in
input
and,
further,
whether
the
model
responded
in
a
manner
judged
to
be
appropriate
to
input
modifications.

In
addition
to
providing
an
indication
of
model
performance,
sensitivity
tests
are
useful
for
providing
key
information.
For
example,
when
applied
to
a
projection
year
base
case,
sensitivity
runs
may
be
used
to
analyze
the
impact
of
emissions
sources
in
the
future.
Furthermore,
these
evaluations
may
be
used
to
predict
the
impact
of
control
strategies
and
assist
with
determining
what
types
of
precursor
reductions
are
likely
to
be
the
most
effective
for
reducing
ozone
concentrations.

The
2007
future
case
sensitivity
tests
were
conducted
by
modifying
model
input
in
one
of
two
ways:
1)
removing
the
precursor
emissions
for
specific
point
sources/
urban
areas,
or
2)
reducing
the
local
anthropogenic
NOx
and
VOC
emissions
inventories
in
incremental
amounts.
The
results
of
modifying
model
input
to
the
2007
future
case
are
provided
in
the
following
sections.

Zero­
Out
Runs:
Urban
Areas
Appendix
E
describes
sensitivity
tests
conducted
on
the
1999
base
case
in
which
the
anthropogenic
NOx
and
VOC
EIs
for
Austin,
Corpus
Christi,
and
Houston
were
removed
from,
or
"
zeroed
out"
of,
the
model.
These
tests
were
also
conducted
on
the
2007
future
case,
i.
e.,
the
2007
NOx
and
VOC
EIs
for
Austin,
Corpus
Christi,
and
Houston
were
removed
from
the
future
case
in
three
separate
tests.
Figures
G­
13
and
G­
14
provide
the
predicted
changes
in
ozone
concentrations
at
CAMS
23
and
CAMS
58,
respectively,
after
removing
the
anthropogenic
EIs
for
each
of
the
three
urban
areas
and
compares
those
values
to
the
1999
sensitivity
runs.

As
shown
by
the
graphs
in
figures
G­
13
and
G­
14,
removing
the
anthropogenic
EI
for
the
11­
county
Houston
area
had
the
greatest
predicted
impact
on
2007
ozone
concentrations
in
the
San
Antonio
area,
followed
by
the
2­
county
Corpus
Christi
area
and
5­
county
Austin
area.
Moreover,
this
trend
is
the
same
whether
referring
to
the
1999
base
or
2007
future
case
sensitivity
runs.
During
the
1999
episode,
the
predominate
wind
direction
was
such
that
Houston
emissions
were
more
likely
to
impact
San
Antonio
than
Austin
or
Corpus
Christi.
Since
the
meteorological
inputs
remain
identical
between
base
and
future
cases,
it
stands
to
reason
that
Houston
emissions
would
continue
to
demonstrate
the
greatest
influence
on
San
Antonio
ozone
concentrations
during
the
September
episode.
G­
24
Figure
G­
13.
Predicted
Reductions
in
Ozone
Concentrations
at
CAMS
23
after
Zeroing
Out
Anthropogenic
Precursor
Emissions
for
the
11­
county
Houston
Area,
2­
county
Corpus
Christi
Area,
and
5­
county
Austin
Area
from
the
1999
Base
Case
(
orange)
and
2007
Future
Case
(
blue).

2.25
parts
per
billion
0.55
parts
per
billion
0.24
parts
per
billion
2.72
parts
per
billion
0.64
parts
per
billion
0.27
parts
per
billion
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Austin
Removed
Corpus
Removed
Houston
Removed
Percent
Reduction
in
Ozone
(
ppb)
1999
2007
G­
25
Figure
G­
14.
Predicted
Reductions
in
Ozone
Concentrations
at
CAMS
58
after
Zeroing
Out
Anthropogenic
Precursor
Emissions
for
the
11­
county
Houston
Area,
2­
county
Corpus
Christi
Area,
and
5­
county
Austin
Area
from
the
1999
Base
Case
(
orange)
and
2007
Future
Case
(
blue).

Zero­
Out
Runs:
Point
Sources
Analyses
were
also
conducted
in
which
specific
point
source
emissions
were
removed
from
the
model
in
separate
sensitivity
runs.
These
tests
were
run
at
the
request
of
local
elected
officials
and
the
TCEQ
to
identify
likely
strategies
(
VOC
versus
NOx)
for
ambient
ozone
reductions
in
the
SAER.

Figures
G­
15
and
G­
16
provide
the
predicted
changes
in
ozone
concentrations
at
CAMS
23
and
58,
as
the
result
of
conducting
these
zero
out
runs
for
1999
and
2007.
One
run,
labeled
"
CPS
Spruce
1
Coal
Plant
Removed,"
simulates
the
impact
of
removing
a
currently­
existing
750­
megawatt
power
plant
from
the
2007
future
case
in
the
San
Antonio
area.
A
second
run,
"
Remove
All
CPS
Power
Plants,"
simulates
the
impact
of
removing
the
nine
power
plants
in
the
San
Antonio
region
in
1999
from
the
1999
base
case
and
removing
seven
power
plants
(
due
to
anticipated
closures
of
two
plants)
from
the
2007
future
case.
A
third
run
"
Remove
Cement
Plants"
represents
the
removal
of
emissions
from
all
cement
kilns
in
the
4­
county
SAER.
The
last
run,
"
Toyota
Removed,"
simulates
the
impact
of
removing
the
EI
for
a
major
manufacturing
plant
from
the
2007
2.19
parts
per
billion
0.45
parts
per
billion
0.35
parts
per
billion
2.61
parts
per
billion
0.57
parts
per
billion
0.40
parts
per
billion
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Austin
Removed
Corpus
Removed
Houston
Removed
Percent
Reduction
in
Ozone
(
ppb)
1999
2007
G­
26
Figure
G15.
Predicted
Reductions
in
Ozone
Concentrations
at
CAMS
23
after
Removing
Various
Point
Source
Emissions
within
the
SAER
 
Comparison
between
1999
(
orange)
and
2007
(
blue).

0.10
parts
per
billion
0.01
parts
per
billion
0.16
parts
per
billion
1.20
parts
per
billion
0.0
parts
per
billion
­
0.17
parts
per
billion
0.69
parts
per
billion
­
0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
Toyota
Removed
Remove
Cement
Plants
Remove
All
CPS
Power
Plants
CPS
Spruce
1
Coal
Plant
Removed*

Percent
Reduction
in
Ozone
(
ppb)
1999
2007
*
based
on
5.93
tons/
day
of
NOx
in
2007
only
G­
27
Figure
G­
16.
Predicted
Reductions
in
Ozone
Concentrations
at
CAMS
58
after
Removing
Various
Point
Source
Emissions
within
the
SAER
 
Comparison
between
1999
(
orange)
and
2007(
blue).

future
case.
Since
the
plant
is
not
scheduled
to
be
in
operation
until
2006,
removing
these
emissions
have
no
impact
on
the
1999
base
case.

As
shown
in
these
graphs,
removing
all
power
plant
emissions
had
the
greatest
impact
on
both
the
1999
and
2007
simulations.
Since
the
combined
power
plants
were
the
largest
source
of
precursors
(
NOx)
of
all
sources
tested,
this
type
of
result
is
expected.
Conversely,
the
Toyota
plant,
which
has
the
lowest
emission
rates
(
primarily
VOC),
impacts
San
Antonio
ozone
concentrations
the
least.

With
the
exception
of
the
results
of
removing
the
cement
kiln
emissions
from
the
1999
base
case
at
CAMS
23,
each
sensitivity
run
demonstrates
a
decrease
in
predicted
1999
or
2007
ozone
concentrations.
The
predicted
increase
in
ozone
concentration
at
CAMS
23
is
most
likely
a
reversal
of
the
model's
ozone
scavenging
process.
During
much
of
the
1999
episode,
the
model
predicts
conditions
in
which
decreases
in
NOx
cause
ozone
concentrations
to
increase
(
NOx
reduction
disbenefit).
Thus,
removing
the
NOx
emissions
from
kilns
near
the
monitor
causes
the
model
to
predict
increased
ozone
concentrations
at
that
location
in
the
1999
base
case.
0.08
parts
per
billion
0.01
parts
per
billion
0.26
parts
per
billion
0.97
parts
per
billion
0.0
parts
per
billion
0.08
parts
per
billion
0.74
parts
per
billion
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
Toyota
Removed
Remove
Cement
Plants
Remove
All
CPS
Power
Plants
CPS
Spruce
1
Coal
Plant
Removed*

Percent
Reduction
in
Ozone
(
ppb)
1999
2007
*
based
on
5.93
tons/
day
of
NOx
in
2007
only
G­
28
This
NOx
reduction
disbenfit
is
much
less
evident
in
the
2007
future
case.
Consequently,
removing
the
NOx
emissions
associated
with
the
San
Antonio
area
power
plants
causes
larger
ozone
reductions
in
the
2007
future
case
than
in
the
1999
base
case.
Since
there
are
no
power
plants
in
the
vicinity
of
CAMS
23,
removing
the
1999
power
plant
emissions
from
the
model
did
not
cause
an
increase
in
predicted
ozone
levels
in
the
1999
base
case,
as
was
demonstrated
by
the
cement
kiln
sensitivity
run.

At
the
request
of
EPA
Region
6,
the
output
from
each
point
source
"
zero
out"
simulation
was
run
through
a
graphics
program,
PAVE,
to
obtain
a
visual
depiction
of
the
impact
of
removing
these
sources
in
the
SAER.
The
plots
for
zeroing
out
point
sources
were
created
for
all
primary
episode
weekdays,
when
applicable,
3
as
shown
in
figures
G­
17
through
G­
22.
An
advantage
these
plots
have
compared
to
the
graphs
for
CAMS
23
and
58,
shown
previously,
is
that
they
provide
an
indication
of
the
impact
of
modifying
emissions
in
terms
of
spatial
distribution.

As
shown
by
these
graphs,
the
impact
of
removing
point
source
emissions
was,
to
a
large
extent,
influenced
by
the
model's
meteorological
processes,
particularly
wind
direction.
The
September
15th
 
17th
plots,
for
example,
indicate
that
these
emissions
primarily
affect
counties
to
the
west
and
northwest
of
Bexar
County.
In
addition,
the
cement
kiln
zero
out
runs
tended
to
show
the
widest
area
of
influence.
This
is
an
expected
outcome
since
the
cement
kiln
emission
sources
are
spread
throughout
the
San
Antonio
area,
whereas
all
seven
CPS
power
plants
are
located
in
southeast
Bexar
County.
Similarly,
the
Toyota
manufacturing
plant
is
represented
by
a
single
point
in
south
Bexar
County
on
the
plots.

3
Weekends
were
not
included
for
the
Toyota
set
of
sensitivity
runs
because
the
plant
is
not
scheduled
to
be
operational
on
Saturday
and
Sunday.
G­
29
Figure
G­
17.
Comparison
of
Zero
Out
Runs
Conducted
for
CPS
Power
Plants,
Cement
Kilns,
and
Toyota
Manufacturing
Plant
on
the
2007
Future
Case,
Wednesday,
September
15th.

Removal
of
CPS
Power
Plant
Emissions
Removal
of
San
Antonio
area
Cement
Kiln
Emissions
Removal
of
Toyota
Manufacturing
Plant
Emissions
G­
30
Figure
G­
18.
Comparison
of
Zero
Out
Runs
Conducted
for
CPS
Power
Plants,
Cement
Kilns,
and
Toyota
Manufacturing
Plant
on
the
2007
Future
Case,
Thursday,
September
16th.

Removal
of
CPS
Power
Plant
Emissions
Removal
of
San
Antonio
Area
Cement
Kiln
Emissions
Removal
of
Toyota
Manufacturing
Plant
Emissions
G­
31
Figure
G­
19.
Comparison
of
Zero
Out
Runs
Conducted
for
CPS
Power
Plants,
Cement
Kilns,
and
Toyota
Manufacturing
Plant
on
the
2007
Future
Case,
Friday,
September
17th.
Problems
with
the
graphics
software
prevented
the
completion
of
a
tile
plot
for
the
September
17th
cement
kiln
sensitivity
run
Removal
of
CPS
Power
Plant
Emissions
Removal
of
Toyota
Manufacturing
Plant
Emissions
G­
32
Figure
G­
20.
Comparison
of
Zero
Out
Runs
Conducted
for
CPS
Power
Plants,
Cement
Kilns,
and
Toyota
Manufacturing
Plant
on
the
2007
Future
Case,
Saturday,
September
18th.
Not
Applicable
Toyota
Manufacturing
Plant
is
not
scheduled
to
be
operational
on
Saturdays
Removal
of
CPS
Power
Plant
Emissions
Removal
of
San
Antonio
Area
Cement
Kiln
Emissions
G­
33
Figure
G­
21.
Comparison
of
Zero
Out
Runs
Conducted
for
CPS
Power
Plants,
Cement
Kilns,
and
Toyota
Manufacturing
Plant
on
the
2007
Future
Case,
Sunday,
September
19th.
Not
Applicable
Toyota
Manufacturing
Plant
is
not
Scheduled
to
be
Operational
on
Sundays
Removal
of
CPS
Power
Plant
Emissions
Removal
of
San
Antonio
Area
Cement
Kiln
Emissions
G­
34
Figure
G­
22.
Comparison
of
Zero
Out
Runs
Conducted
for
CPS
Power
Plants,
Cement
Kilns,
and
Toyota
Manufacturing
Plant
on
the
2007
Future
Case,
Monday,
September
20th.

Removal
of
CPS
Power
Plant
Emissions
Removal
of
San
Antonio
Area
Cement
Kiln
Emissions
Removal
of
Toyota
Manufacturing
Plant
Emissions
G­
35
For
the
most
part,
removing
point
source
emissions
caused
the
model
to
predict
decreases
in
ozone
concentrations
along
the
area
of
impact.
However,
the
model
also
predicts
some
areas
of
increased
ozone
concentrations,
the
most
prominent
of
which
is
the
Thursday,
September
16th
plot
depicting
the
impact
of
zeroing
out
cement
kiln
emissions.
Likewise
some
of
the
Toyota
sensitivity
runs
exhibit
small
increases
in
ozone
concentrations
near
the
plant,
despite
the
very
low
NOx
emissions
the
plant
represents
(
0.34
tons/
day).
This
NOx
reduction
disbenefit
is
less
pronounced
in
the
power
plant
sensitivity
runs.
However,
these
tile
plots
depict
ozone
concentrations
in
the
lowest
atmospheric
grid
layer,
whereas
power
plants
pollutants
are
emitted,
by
computer
simulation,
into
higher
grid
layers.

I
ncremental
Removal
of
VOC
and
NOx
Precursor
Emissions
Across­
the­
board
sensitivity
runs
were
conducted
by
removing
25%,
50%,
75%,
and
100%
of
the
local
(
4­
county
SAER)
NOx
emissions,
VOC
emissions,
and
combinations
of
the
two,
from
the
2007
future
case.
Figures
G­
23
and
G­
24
provide
the
results
of
the
across­
the­
board
reduction
runs
for
CAMS
23
and
CAMS
58
(
San
Antonio
downwind
monitors),
averaged
over
the
six
day
modeling
period
conducted
on
the
1999
base
and
2007
future
cases.

At
the
25%
reduction
level
(
CAMS
23),
VOC
reductions
were
slightly
more
effective
than
NOx
reductions
at
lowering
ozone
concentrations.
At
CAMS
58,
25%
NOx
and
25%
VOC
reductions
are
equally
effective.
These
results
are
somewhat
different
than
those
predicted
for
the
1999
base
case
in
that,
at
the
25%
level,
VOC
reductions
were
more
effective
than
NOx
for
reducing
ozone
concentrations
in
the
SAER.
These
results
tend
to
support
the
evaluation
of
both
VOC
and
NOx
control
strategies
as
possible
means
of
reducing
ambient
ozone
concentrations
in
the
San
Antonio
region.
G­
36
Figure
G­
23.
Predicted
Ozone
Concentrations
at
CAMS
23
after
Removing
Local
NOx
and
VOC
Emissions
from
CAMx
Run
18,
Averages
for
September
15
­
20,
1999
and
2007.

60
65
70
75
80
85
90
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%

Anthropogenic
Emission
Reductions
(
percentage)
Ozone
Concentration
(
ppb)

NOx
Reduction
VOC
Reduction
NOx
&
VOC
Reduction
8
hour
standard
­
85
ppb
1999
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%

Anthropogenic
Emission
Reductions
(
percentage)
Ozone
Concentration
(
ppb)

NOx
Reduction
VOC
Reduction
NOx
&
VOC
Reduction
8
hour
standard
­
85
ppb
2007
G­
37
Figure
G­
24.
Predicted
Ozone
Concentrations
at
CAMS
58
after
Removing
Local
NOx
and
VOC
Emissions
from
CAMx
Run
18,
Average
for
September
15
­
20,
1999
and
2007.

60
65
70
75
80
85
90
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%

Anthropogenic
Emission
Reductions
(
percentage)
Ozone
Concentration
(
ppb)

NOx
Reduction
VOC
Reduction
NOx
&
VOC
Reduction
8
hour
standard
­
85
ppb
1999
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%

Anthropogenic
Emission
Reductions
(
percentage)
Ozone
Concentration
(
ppb)

NOx
Reduction
VOC
Reduction
NOx
&
VOC
Reduction
8
hour
standard
­
85
ppb
2007
G­
38
SUMMARY
OF
MODIFICATIONS
TO
THE
1999
BASE
AND
2007
FUTURE
CASES
AND
RESULTING
DESIGN
VALUES
As
described
previously,
a
great
amount
of
time
and
effort
were
spent
ensuring
the
2007
future
cases
developed
by
UT
Austin
and
AACOG
were
consistent.
As
part
of
that
effort,
UT
and
AACOG
staff,
in
consultation
with
the
TCEQ,
evaluated
local
and
regional
2007
EI
files
used
as
input
to
the
two
future
cases.
Whenever
inconsistencies
in
emissions
or
procedures
were
identified,
staff
from
UT,
AACOG,
and
the
TCEQ
determined
the
most
appropriate
data
to
incorporate
into
the
models.
Both
the
UT
and
AACOG
future
cases
were
modified
to
reflect
these
decisions.

Tables
G­
5
through
G­
8
summarize
the
impact
of
making
these
modifications
to
AACOG's
2007
future
case.
The
future
case
runs,
labeled
A
through
G,
represent
the
first
future
case
(
A)
developed
by
AACOG,
projected
from
the
1999
base
case
labeled
CAMx
Run
18
(
see
appendix
E
for
more
information),
through
the
final
2007
future
case
run
(
G).
The
far
right
column
lists
changes
that
were
made
to
the
model
for
each
run.

Results
of
making
the
modifications
to
the
future
case
model
simulation
are
provided
for
each
monitor
in
the
San
Antonio
region
(
CAMS
23,
58,
59,
and
678).
Based
on
analyses
between
the
AACOG
and
UT
final
future
cases
(
see
section
on
"
Comparisons
Between
Model
Refinements"),
it
is
evident
that
the
extra
effort
required
to
analyze
all
model
inputs
resulted
in
consistent,
well­
performing
future
case
simulations
on
which
to
model
control
strategy
effectiveness
and
base
attainment
demonstrations.
G­
39
Table
G­
5.
Modifications
to
the1999
Base
Case
and
2007
Future
Case
as
Part
of
the
QA/
QC
Process
and
Resulting
Peak
8­
hour
Predictions
at
CAMS
23
Associated
with
Each
Run.

CAMS
23
Peak
Predicted
8­
hour
Ozone
Concentrations
Run
Label
Year
15th
16th
17th
18th
19th
20th
Average
Design
Value
Modifications
to
Model
Base
Case.
A
1999
81.63
78.25
81.39
98.68
102.54
93.73
89.37
89.00
Base
Case.
B
1999
81.62
78.25
81.36
98.67
102.46
93.68
89.34
89.00

Updated
quarry
and
construction
equipment
emissions
Base
Case.
D
1999
81.62
78.25
81.36
98.67
102.46
93.67
89.34
89.00

Incorporated
new
wastewater
estimates
from
San
Antonio
Water
System
Base
Case.
E
1999
81.73
78.16
81.36
98.72
101.59
93.49
89.18
89.00

Updated
1999
area
and
non­
road
source
temporal
profiles
for
regional
Texas
to
match
2007
temporal
profiles

Updated
point
source
cut
off
point
from
20m
to
50m
for
the
4km
grid
Base
Case
F
1999
81.35
78.22
81.52
98.67
101.49
93.42
89.11
89.00

Updated
Victoria's
mobile
EI
with
latest
data
from
UT

Updated
chemical
and
temporal
profiles
for
Texas
area
and
non­
road
emissions

Updated
Victoria's
point
sources

Updated
Texas
NEGU
and
EGU
sources
outside
of
Houston

Updated
Louisiana
point
source
emissions

Updated
Austin's
area
&
non­
road
sources
Base
Case
G
1999
81.14
78.08
81.36
98.57
101.40
93.20
88.96
89.00

Updated
San
Antonio
asphalt
emissions

Updated
tanker
truck
unloading
emissions

Updated
tanker
trucks
in
transit
emissions

Updated
emissions
for
other
gasoline
distribution
activities
Base
Case.
A
2007
84.56
Base
Case.
B
2007
80.00
76.21
80.05
89.45
93.92
92.67
85.38
85.06

Updated
regional
EI
HDD
non­
road
EI
(
provided
by
TCEQ)


Updated
Austin
Point
Source
Control
EI
(
Alcoa)


Updated
San
Antonio
construction
and
quarry
equipment
emissions
G­
40
CAMS
23
(
continued)

Base
Case.
D
2007
80.09
76.19
80.01
89.45
93.93
92.67
85.39
85.07

Incorporated
new
wastewater
estimates

Revised
Austin
Point
Source
Control
EI
(
Alcoa)

Base
Case.
E
2007
79.70
75.20
79.57
88.73
92.48
91.45
84.52
84.35

Revised
Austin
Point
Source
Control
EI

Incorporated
new
regional
temporal
profile
for
point
sources

Added
CO
for
Austin
on­
road
EI
(
3
County)


Included
stage1
(
125k)
for
the
4­
county
San
Antonio
MSA

Removed
tank
truck
unloading
on
Sunday
to
match
EPA
guidance

Updated
other
area
source
temporal
profiles
to
match
EPA
guidance

Updated
Texas
regional
area
and
non­
road
emissions

Updated
Texas
point
sources
(
besides
CPS)


Updated
Lehigh
cement
Kiln
controls

Updated
point
source
cut
off
point
from
20m
to
50m
on
the
4­
km
grid
to
match
the
12­
km
grid
cut
off

Updated
Victoria's
EI
Base
Case
F
2007
79.70
75.20
79.57
88.73
92.49
91.46
84.53
84.42

Updated
Victoria's
mobile
EI

Updated
chemical
and
temporal
profiles
for
Texas
area
and
non­
road
emissions
Base
Case
G
2007
79.57
75.07
79.50
88.69
92.50
91.57
84.48
84.52

Updated
San
Antonio
asphalt
emissions

Updated
tanker
truck
unloading
emissions

Updated
tanker
trucks
in
transit
emissions

Updated
emissions
from
other
gasoline
distribution
activities

Updated
emissions
for
ROP
controls
G­
41
Table
G­
6.
Modifications
to
the1999
Base
Case
and
2007
Future
Case
as
Part
of
the
QA/
QC
Process
and
Resulting
Peak
8­
hour
Predictions
at
CAMS
58
Associated
with
Each
Run.

CAMS
58
Peak
Predicted
8­
hour
Ozone
Concentrations
Run
Label
Year
15th
16th
17th
18th
19th
20th
Average
Base
Case
Design
Value
Modifications
to
Model
Base
Case.
A
1999
75.95
77.44
81.93
98.68
102.75
91.66
88.07
87.00
Base
Case.
B
1999
75.95
77.44
81.93
98.67
102.68
91.64
88.05
87.00

Updated
quarry
and
construction
equipment
emissions
Base
Case.
D
1999
75.95
77.44
81.92
98.67
102.68
91.63
88.05
87.00

Incorporated
new
wastewater
estimates
from
San
Antonio
Water
System
Base
Case.
E
1999
76.00
77.41
81.87
98.72
101.92
91.50
87.90
87.00

Updated
1999
area
and
non­
road
source
temporal
profiles
for
regional
Texas
to
match
2007
temporal
profiles

Updated
point
source
cut
off
point
from
20m
to
50m
for
the
4km
grid
Base
Case
F
1999
75.74
77.44
82.16
98.67
101.90
91.51
87.90
87.00

Updated
Victoria's
mobile
EI
with
latest
data
from
UT

Updated
chemical
and
temporal
profiles
for
Texas
area
and
non­
road
emissions

Updated
Victoria's
point
sources

Updated
Texas
NEGU
and
EGU
sources
outside
of
Houston

Updated
Louisiana
point
source
emissions

Updated
Austin's
area
&
non­
road
sources
Base
Case
G
1999
75.59
77.26
82.01
98.57
101.83
91.30
87.76
87.00

Updated
San
Antonio
asphalt
emissions

Updated
tanker
truck
unloading
emissions

Updated
tanker
trucks
in
transit
emissions

Updated
emissions
for
other
gasoline
distribution
activities
Base
Case.
A
2007
82.19
Base
Case.
B
2007
74.11
75.41
79.07
89.45
93.92
90.17
83.69
82.69

Updated
regional
EI
HDD
non­
road
EI
(
provided
by
TCEQ)


Updated
Austin
Point
Source
Control
EI
(
Alcoa)


Updated
San
Antonio
construction
and
quarry
equipment
emissions
G­
42
CAMS
58
(
continued)

Base
Case.
D
2007
74.28
75.40
79.02
89.45
93.93
90.18
83.71
82.71

Incorporated
new
wastewater
estimates

Revised
Austin
Point
Source
Control
EI
(
Alcoa)

Base
Case.
E
2007
73.91
74.46
78.57
88.73
92.48
89.17
82.89
82.03

Revised
Austin
Point
Source
Control
EI

Incorporated
new
regional
temporal
profile
for
point
sources

Added
CO
for
Austin
on­
road
EI
(
3
County)


Included
stage1
(
125k)
for
the
4­
county
San
Antonio
MSA

Removed
tank
truck
unloading
on
Sunday
to
match
EPA
guidance

Updated
other
area
source
temporal
profiles
to
match
EPA
guidance

Updated
Texas
regional
area
and
non­
road
emissions

Updated
Texas
point
sources
(
besides
CPS)


Updated
Lehigh
cement
Kiln
controls

Updated
point
source
cut
off
point
from
20m
to
50m
on
the
4­
km
grid
to
match
the
12­
km
grid
cut
off

Updated
Victoria
EI
Base
Case
F
2007
73.90
74.46
78.57
88.73
92.49
89.18
82.89
82.04

Updated
Victoria's
mobile
EI

Updated
chemical
and
temporal
profiles
for
Texas
area
and
non­
road
emissions
Base
Case
G
2007
73.80
74.28
78.50
88.69
92.50
89.25
82.84
82.12

Updated
San
Antonio
asphalt
emissions

Updated
tanker
truck
unloading
emissions

Updated
tanker
trucks
in
transit
emissions

Updated
emissions
from
other
gasoline
distribution
activities

Updated
emissions
for
ROP
controls
G­
43
Table
G­
7.
Modifications
to
the1999
Base
Case
and
2007
Future
Case
as
Part
of
the
QA/
QC
Process
and
Resulting
Peak
8­
hour
Predictions
at
CAMS
59
Associated
with
Each
Run.

Gray
strike­
through
numbers
are
values
that
fall
below
the
EPA
requirement
(
EPA
1999,
p.
41)
of
70
ppb
to
be
included
in
the
RRF
CAMS
59
Peak
Predicted
8­
hour
Ozone
Concentrations
Run
Label
Year
15th
16th
17th
18th
19th
20th
Average
Base
Case
Design
Value
Modifications
to
Model
Base
Case.
A
1999
66.95
72.04
69.83
72.53
83.04
86.65
76.82
79.00
Base
Case.
B
1999
66.95
72.04
69.83
72.53
82.90
86.61
76.78
79.00

Updated
quarry
and
construction
equipment
emissions
Base
Case.
D
1999
66.95
72.04
69.83
72.53
82.90
86.60
76.78
79.00

Incorporated
new
wastewater
estimates
from
San
Antonio
Water
System
Base
Case.
E
1999
67.33
72.30
69.86
72.58
82.24
86.25
76.65
79.00

Updated
1999
area
and
non­
road
source
temporal
profiles
for
regional
Texas
to
match
2007
temporal
profiles

Updated
point
source
cut
off
point
from
20m
to
50m
for
the
4km
grid
Base
Case
F
1999
67.12
72.33
70.09
72.38
81.90
86.46
76.63
79.00

Updated
Victoria's
mobile
EI
with
latest
data
from
UT

Updated
chemical
and
temporal
profiles
for
Texas
area
and
non­
road
emissions

Updated
Victoria's
point
sources

Updated
Texas
NEGU
and
EGU
sources
outside
of
Houston

Updated
Louisiana
point
source
emissions

Updated
Austin's
area
&
non­
road
sources
Base
Case
G
1999
66.89
72.38
69.90
72.12
81.75
86.26
78.13
79.00

Updated
San
Antonio
asphalt
emissions

Updated
tanker
truck
unloading
emissions

Updated
tanker
trucks
in
transit
emissions

Updated
emissions
for
other
gasoline
distribution
activities
Base
Case.
A
2007
74.96
Base
Case.
B
2007
64.65
67.40
67.68
68.97
78.73
84.15
73.38
75.51

Updated
regional
EI
HDD
non­
road
EI
(
provided
by
TCEQ)


Updated
Austin
Point
Source
Control
EI
(
Alcoa)
G­
44
CAMS
59
(
continued)

Base
Case.
D
2007
64.70
67.40
67.66
68.97
78.73
84.15
73.38
75.51

Updated
San
Antonio
construction
and
quarry
equipment
emissions

Incorporated
new
wastewater
estimates

Revised
Austin
Point
Source
Control
EI
(
Alcoa)

Base
Case.
E
2007
64.25
65.90
68.05
69.21
76.99
83.03
72.64
74.87

Revised
Austin
Point
Source
Control
EI

Incorporated
new
regional
temporal
profile
for
point
sources

Added
CO
for
Austin
on­
road
EI
(
3
County)


Included
stage1
(
125k)
for
the
4­
county
San
Antonio
MSA

Removed
tank
truck
unloading
on
Sunday
to
match
EPA
guidance

Updated
other
area
source
temporal
profiles
to
match
EPA
guidance

Updated
Texas
regional
area
and
non­
road
emissions

Updated
Texas
point
sources
(
besides
CPS)


Updated
Lehigh
cement
Kiln
controls

Updated
point
source
cut
off
point
from
20m
to
50m
on
the
4­
km
grid
to
match
the
12­
km
grid
cut
off

Updated
Victoria
EI
Base
Case
F
2007
64.25
65.90
68.05
69.21
77.01
83.05
72.64
74.89

Updated
Victoria's
mobile
EI

Updated
chemical
and
temporal
profiles
for
Texas
area
and
non­
road
emissions
Base
Case
G
2007
63.98
65.93
67.82
68.92
76.84
82.96
73.66
74.48

Updated
San
Antonio
asphalt
emissions

Updated
tanker
truck
unloading
emissions

Updated
tanker
trucks
in
transit
emissions

Updated
emissions
from
other
gasoline
distribution
activities

Updated
emissions
for
ROP
controls
G­
45
Table
G­
8.
Modifications
to
the1999
Base
Case
and
2007
Future
Case
as
Part
of
the
QA/
QC
Process
and
Resulting
Peak
8­
hour
Predictions
at
CAMS
678
Associated
with
Each
Run.

Gray
strike­
through
numbers
are
values
that
fall
below
the
EPA
requirement
(
EPA
1999
,
p.
41)
of
70
ppb
to
be
included
in
the
RRF
CAMS
678
Peak
Predicted
8­
hour
Ozone
Concentrations
Run
Label
Year
15th
16th
17th
18th
19th
20th
Average
Base
Case
Design
Value
Modifications
to
Model
Base
Case
A
1999
70.34
71.19
69.83
80.03
92.94
88.47
78.80
77.00
Base
Case
B
1999
70.33
71.19
69.83
80.01
92.81
88.33
78.75
77.00

Updated
quarry
and
construction
equipment
emissions
Base
Case
D
1999
70.33
71.19
69.83
80.01
92.80
88.32
78.75
77.00

Incorporated
new
wastewater
estimates
from
San
Antonio
Water
System
Base
Case
E
1999
70.57
71.45
69.86
80.06
91.99
87.92
78.64
77.00

Updated
1999
area
and
non­
road
source
temporal
profiles
for
regional
Texas
to
match
2007
temporal
profiles

Updated
point
source
cut
off
point
from
20m
to
50m
for
the
4km
grid
Base
Case
F
1999
70.39
71.50
70.09
79.81
91.60
87.84
78.54
77.00

Updated
Victoria's
mobile
EI
with
latest
data
from
UT

Updated
chemical
and
temporal
profiles
for
Texas
area
and
non­
road
emissions

Updated
Victoria's
point
sources

Updated
Texas
NEGU
and
EGU
sources
outside
of
Houston

Updated
Louisiana
point
source
emissions

Updated
Austin's
area
&
non­
road
sources
Base
Case
G
1999
70.16
71.51
69.90
79.63
91.49
87.65
80.09
77.00

Updated
San
Antonio
asphalt
emissions

Updated
tanker
truck
unloading
emissions

Updated
tanker
trucks
in
transit
emissions

Updated
emissions
for
other
gasoline
distribution
activities
Base
Case
A
2007
74.71
Base
Case
B
2007
70.43
69.14
68.99
76.78
87.03
89.14
76.92
75.21

Updated
regional
EI
HDD
non­
road
EI
(
provided
by
TCEQ)


Updated
Austin
Point
Source
Control
EI
(
Alcoa)
G­
46
CAMS
678
(
continued)

Base
Case
D
2007
70.56
69.14
68.94
76.77
87.04
89.14
76.93
75.22

Updated
San
Antonio
construction
and
quarry
equipment
emissions

Incorporated
new
wastewater
estimates

Revised
Austin
Point
Source
Control
EI
(
Alcoa)

Base
Case
E
2007
70.08
68.00
68.89
76.26
85.53
87.83
76.10
74.51

Revised
Austin
Point
Source
Control
EI

Incorporated
new
regional
temporal
profile
for
point
sources

Added
CO
for
Austin
on­
road
EI
(
3
County)


Included
stage1
(
125k)
for
the
4­
county
San
Antonio
MSA

Removed
tank
truck
unloading
on
Sunday
to
match
EPA
guidance

Updated
other
area
source
temporal
profiles
to
match
EPA
guidance

Updated
Texas
regional
area
and
non­
road
emissions

Updated
Texas
point
sources
(
besides
CPS)


Updated
Lehigh
cement
Kiln
controls

Updated
point
source
cut
off
point
from
20m
to
50m
on
the
4­
km
grid
to
match
the
12­
km
grid
cut
off

Updated
Victoria
EI
Base
Case
F
2007
70.08
68.00
68.89
76.26
85.55
87.84
76.10
74.61

Updated
Victoria's
mobile
EI

Updated
chemical
and
temporal
profiles
for
Texas
area
and
non­
road
emissions
Base
Case
G
2007
69.89
67.86
68.75
76.11
85.50
87.87
77.45
74.46

Updated
San
Antonio
asphalt
emissions

Updated
tanker
truck
unloading
emissions

Updated
tanker
trucks
in
transit
emissions

Updated
emissions
from
other
gasoline
distribution
activities

Updated
emissions
for
ROP
controls
G­
47
REFERENCES
U.
S.
Environmental
Protection
Agency
(
May
1999).
Draft
Guidance
on
the
Use
of
Models
and
Other
Analyses
in
Attainment
Demonstrations
for
the
8­
hour
Ozone
NAAQS.
Research
Triangle
Park,
NC:
Office
of
Air
Quality
Planning
and
Standards.
