1
Reducing
Power
Plant
Emissions:

EPA's
New
Proposed
Rules
For
Interstate
Air
Quality
U.
S.
Environmental
Protection
Agency
Office
of
Air
and
Radiation
December
2003
Interstate
Air
Quality
Rule
Proposal
Reducing
Sulfur
Dioxide
and
Nitrogen
Oxides
Emissions
in
the
Eastern
U.
S.
3
Long
Range
Transport
of
Air
Pollution
 
Air
pollution
can
travel
hundreds
of
miles
and
cause
multiple
health
and
environmental
problems
on
regional
or
national
scales
 
Emissions
contributing
to
PM
2.5
and
ozone
nonattainment
often
travel
across
state
lines,
especially
in
the
eastern
U.
S.

 
SO2
and
NOx
and
transformation
products
contribute
to
PM
2.5
transport
 
NOx
and
transformation
products
contribute
to
ozone
transport
 
Attaining
national
ambient
air
quality
standards
will
require
some
combination
of
emissions
reductions
from:

 
sources
located
in
or
near
nonattainment
areas
(
such
as
mobile
sources)
and
 
sources,
such
as
power
plants,
located
further
from
the
nonattainment
area
 
Clean
Air
Act
contains
provisions
for
States
and
EPA
to
address
interstate
pollution
transport.

 
EPA
is
also
addressing
particle
pollution
from
fuels
and
vehicles
by
implementing
national
rules.
4
Ozone
Nonattainment
(
226
Counties)

PM2.5
Nonattainment
(
49
Counties)

Both
Nonattainment
(
71
Counties)

Counties
Exceeding
the
Ozone
and
PM2.5
NAAQS
in
2002
5
Proposed
IAQR:
Key
Elements
 
Sets
the
geographic
scope
of
rule
based
on
significant
contribution
from
individual
states
for
8­
hour
ozone
and
PM
2.5
 
Sets
an
emissions
budget
for
each
state
that
leads
to
pollution
reductions
 
based
on
stringent
controls
on
electric
generating
units
(
EGUs)

 
forms
the
basis
for
a
regional
cap­
and­
trade
program
 
Provides
an
(
optional)
cap
and
trade
program
based
on
successful
Acid
Rain
trading
program
 
Allows
states
flexibility
to
decide
which
sources
to
control
to
meet
the
budget
and
whether
to
join
the
trading
program
 
Proposes
a
two­
phase
program
with
declining
compliance
caps
(
budgets)

 
SO2:
3.9
million
tons
in
2010
and
2.7
million
in
2015
 
NOx:
1.6
million
tons
in
2010
and
1.3
million
in
2015
6
IAQR
Delivers
Environmental
and
Public
Health
Benefits
at
Reasonable
Cost
 
Reduced
fine
particle
and
ozone
exposures,
beginning
immediately
will
result
in
$
82.4
billion
in
annual
public
health
benefits
in
2015,

including:

 
13,000
avoided
premature
deaths;

 
6,900
fewer
cases
of
chronic
bronchitis;

 
18,000
fewer
non­
fatal
heart
attacks;

 
240,000
fewer
asthma
exacerbations;

 
9.3
million
fewer
days
with
respiratory
illnesses
and
symptoms;

 
22,500
fewer
hospitalizations
and
ER
visits;
and
 
1.7
million
fewer
absences
from
work
and
school.

 
28
additional
counties
attaining
the
PM2.5
standard
and
8
additional
counties
attaining
the
ozone
standards
in
2015
(
compared
to
the
Base
Case)

 
In
2015,
annual
visibility
benefits
would
be
$
1.4
billion
for
improvements
in
Southeastern
national
parks
and
forests
 
Reductions
in
sulfur
and
nitrogen
deposition
improve
the
quality
of
lakes,
streams,
and
estuaries.
Additional
human
health
&

environmental
benefits
will
result
for
the
rule,
but
cannot
be
monetized
(
e.
g.,
co­
benefits
of
mercury
reductions).

 
Benefits
far
exceed
costs
 
more
than
$
22
benefits
for
every
dollar
of
costs
7
Area
not
analyzed
for
ozone
States
Identified
in
Proposal
as
Having
Significant
Contributions
to
8­
hour
Ozone
and
PM
2.5
Significant
NOx
SIP
Call
states
Significant
Non­
SIP
Call
states
Not
significant
Split
States
 
To
Be
Further
Analyzed
8­
Hour
Ozone:
Summertime
NOx
reduction
requirements
for
25
states
PM
2.5:
Annual
SO
2
and
NOx
reduction
requirements
for
28
states
States
where
summertime
NOx
not
required
for
8­
hour
ozone,
but
is
for
PM
2.5
States
where
summertime
NOx
control
also
needed
for
8­
hour
ozone
Not
significant
States
included
under
an
alternative
analysis
8
Ozone
and
Particle
Pollution
The
Interstate
Air
Quality
Rule
Together
with
Other
Clean
Air
Programs
Will
Bring
Cleaner
Air
to
Cities
in
the
East
39
Remaining
Eastern
Counties
Likely
to
Exceed
Standards
with
Interstate
Air
Quality
Rule
in
2015
317
Eastern
Counties
Exceeding
Standards
in
2002
PM2.5
standard
=
15

g/
m3
8­
hour
Ozone
Standard
=
85
ppb
O3
Only
(
218
Counties)

PM2.5
Only
(
43
Counties)

Both
O3
&
PM2.5
(
56
Counties)

O3
Only
(
26
Counties)

PM2.5
Only
(
13
Counties)

Both
O3
&
PM2.5
(
0
Counties)
9
IAQR
Brings
28
More
Areas
into
Attainment
with
the
PM2.5
Standard
by
2015
and
Remaining
Areas
Closer
to
Attainment
PM
2.5
attainment
status
in
2015
IAQR
proposal:

 
The
IAQR
proposal
would
bring
28
additional
eastern
counties
into
attainment
with
the
fine
particle
standard
(
as
compared
to
the
Base
Case*).

PM
2.5
attainment
status
in
2015
base
case:

 
Existing
programs
will
bring
58
eastern
counties
into
attainment
with
the
fine
particle
standard
(
compared
to
current
conditions).

Notes:
Based
on
1999­
2001
and
2000­
2002
data
of
counties
with
monitors
that
have
three
years
of
complete
data.
Additional
federal
and
state
programs
must
bring
all
counties
into
attainment
by
2016
at
the
latest.
The
Transport
rule
is
not
expected
to
bring
additional
counties
into
attainment
for
2015
in
the
West.
Therefore,
the
western
region
is
not
presented
here.
*
Base
case
 
assumes
implementation
of
existing
Clean
Air
Act
programs
Manhattan=
White
Remaining
Counties
Likely
to
Exceed
the
Annual
Fine
Particle
Standard
with
Transport
Rule
in
2015
Remaining
Counties
Likely
to
Exceed
the
Annual
Fine
Particle
Standard
under
the
Base
Case*
in
2015
41
Nonattainment
Counties
13
Nonattainment
Counties
PM2.5
standard
=

15

g/
m3
Manhattan=
Red
10
IAQR
Brings
8
More
Areas
into
Attainment
with
the
8­
hour
Ozone
Standard
by
2015
and
Remaining
Areas
Closer
to
Attainment
Remaining
Counties
Likely
to
Exceed
the
8­
hour
Ozone
Standard
with
Transport
Rule
in
2015
Remaining
Counties
Likely
to
Exceed
the
8­
hour
Ozone
Standard
under
Base
Case
in
2015
Ozone
attainment
status
in
2015
IAQR
proposal
case:

 
The
NOx
SIP
Call
will
bring
many
Eastern
counties
into
attainment
with
the
8­
hour
ozone
standard.

 
With
IAQR
proposal,
as
compared
to
the
Base
Case,
the
number
of
counties
out
of
attainment
with
the
8­
hour
ozone
standard
decreases
from
34
to
26.

Ozone
attainment
status
in
2015
base
case:

 
Existing
programs
(
primarily
the
NOx
SIP
Call
and
vehicle
rules)

will
bring
240
additional
eastern
counties
into
attainment
with
the
8­
hour
ozone
standard
(
compared
to
current
conditions).

Notes:
Based
on
2000­
2002
data
of
counties
with
monitors
that
have
three
years
of
complete
data.
Additional
federal
and
state
programs
must
bring
all
counties
into
attainment
between
2007
and
2021.
Transport
Rule
is
not
expected
to
bring
additional
counties
into
attainment
for
2015
in
the
West.
Therefore,

the
western
region
is
not
presented
here.
34
Nonattainment
Counties
8­
hour
Ozone
Standard
=

85
ppb
26
Nonattainment
Counties
11
12
13
 
Significant
regional
reductions
in
sulfur
and
nitrogen
deposition
are
projected
to
benefit
lakes
and
streams
in
the
eastern
U.
S.
Reductions
in
nitrogen
deposition
will
also
benefit
sensitive
coastal
ecosystems
Northeast
Region
 
Chronic
acidity
would
be
dramatically
reduced
by
2030
(
only
1%
of
lakes
remain
acidic).*

Adirondack
Mountains
 
Eliminates
chronic
acidity
from
lakes
in
the
Adirondacks.

Southeast
Region
 
Slows
the
rate
of
stream
acidification.

Reductions
in
Acid
Deposition
Will
Reduce
the
Number
of
Acidic
Lakes
Northeastern
Lakes
1%

6%

10%

0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Current
Base
Case
(
2030)
IAQR
(
2030)

%

o
f
la
ke
s
c
h
ro
n
ic
all
y
a
c
id
ic
*
Note:
This
may
be
an
overestimate
of
recovery
under
existing
programs
due
to
the
fact
that
this
modeling
focuses
only
on
sulfur
deposition.
In
addition,
some
lakes
would
still
become
acidic
periodically
due
to
seasonal
or
storm
events.
0%

12%

21%

0
5
10
15
20
25
Current
Base
Case
(
2030)
IAQR
(
2030)

%

o
f
lakes
ch
ro
n
ically
acid
ic
Adirondack
Lakes
14
Regional
Retail
Electricity
Prices
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2000
(
National)
2010
2015
Cents/

Kwh
($

1999)
Prices
in
the
Affected
Region,
No
Further
Controls
Prices
in
the
Affected
Region
with
IAQR
$
0.00
$
0.50
$
1.00
$
1.50
$
2.00
$
2.50
$
3.00
$
3.50
$
4.00
2005
2010
2015
2020
$/

mmBtu
No
Further
Controls
Interstate
Air
Quality
Rule
­
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
No
Further
Controls
IAQR
No
Further
Controls
IAQR
TWh
Other
Projected
Impacts
Note:
Retail
prices
from
2000
are
from
AEO2003.
All
other
data
is
from
EPA s
Integrated
Planning
Model.
Natural
Gas
&
Coal
Prices
Coal
Production
for
Electricity
Generation
(
million
tons)
Generation
Mix
IAQR
2000
2010
2015
Appalachia
299
312
313
Interior
131
198
203
West
475
505
516
National
905
1,015
1,031
Coal
Gas/
Oil
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewables
Other
2010
2020
Coal
Gas
Note:
Minemouth
and
Henry
Hub
prices
15
Summary
The
Interstate
Air
Quality
Rule
and
Mercury
Rules
 
proposed
December
15,

2003
­­
will
significantly
cut
emissions
of
sulfur
dioxide,
nitrogen
oxides
and
mercury
from
coal­
burning
power
plants.

These
rules
will:

 
Provide
the
largest
single
investment
in
any
clean
air
program
in
history
 
Significantly
help
cities
and
states
in
the
East
meet
new,

more
stringent
national
ambient
air
quality
standards
for
ozone
and
fine
particles
 
Achieve
the
largest
reduction
in
air
pollution
in
more
than
a
decade
 
Reduce
emissions
more
than
ever
achieved
for
power
plants
outside
of
the
highly
successful
acid
rain
program
 
Reduce
air
pollution
more
than
any
kind
of
program
not
specifically
mandated
by
Congress
 
Serve
as
the
single
most
important
step
we
can
take
now
to
improve
air
quality
in
the
U.
S.
16
Next
Steps
°
Hold
public
hearings
Early
2004
°
Comment
period
closes
Mar
2004
°
Supplemental
Notice
on
Interstate
Rule
May
2004
°
Finalize
Interstate
Rule
Late
2004
 
Early
2005
